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$NIFTY: Nifty 50 – India’s Market Meltdown or Hidden Gem?(1/9) Good Morning, folks! ☀️ NSE:NIFTY : Nifty 50 – India’s Market Meltdown or Hidden Gem? Gift Nifty’s at 22,555, down 65 points, and the index is off 13% since October 2024! Is this a crash landing or a golden ticket in disguise? Let’s unpack the chaos! 🔍 (2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊 • Gift Nifty: 22,555, down 65 points (Mar 6, 2025) 💰 • Recent Trend: 13% drop from Oct 2024 highs 📏 • Sector Mood: Autos, real estate dragging, per web reports 🌩️ It’s a bumpy ride, but bargains might be brewing! 🔧 (3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈 • Index Weight: 50 top Indian firms, 65% of NSE market cap 🏅 • Scope: Spans 13 sectors, from banks to tech ⏳ • Trend: Bearish streak persists, down 13% since Oct 🎯 Still a heavyweight, but feeling the squeeze! 🌐 (4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑 • Earnings Slowdown: Growth at 5%, down from 20%+ 🔄 • Macro Woes: U.S. tariffs, trade tensions spook investors 🌍 • Market Vibe: Gift Nifty signals a sour start 📋 Tough times, but sectors might shine through! 💡 (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡ • Geopolitics: U.S. tariff threats hit exports 🔍 • Sector Slump: Autos, real estate under pressure 📉 • Volatility: Bearish trend grips tight 🌪️ Rough waters ahead, but storms pass! 🛡️ (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪 • Diversity: 13 sectors, broad economic play 🏆 • Scale: Tracks India’s biggest players 📈 • Value: Potentially undervalued, per web buzz 🔩 A battered champ with fight left! 💼 (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️ • Weaknesses: 5% earnings growth, macro drag 📉 • Opportunities: Sector plays in banks, tech shine 📈 Can it dodge the punches and rally? 🤔 (8/9) – 📢Nifty at 22,555 (Gift), down 13%—your call? 🗳️ • Bullish: $24K soon, undervalued steal 🦬 • Neutral: Flatline, risks offset ⚖️ • Bearish: $20K next, bears rule 🐻 Vote below! 👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯 Nifty’s 13% slide and $116 Gift price signal trouble 📉, but undervalued sectors tease upside 🌱. Volatility’s our mate—dips are DCA fuel 🔥. Buy low, aim high! Hit or miss?
NSE:NIFTYLong
by DCAChampion
$EUINTR -Europe's Interest RatesECONOMICS:EUINTR (March/2025) source: European Central Bank - The ECB lowered the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%. This decision reflects an updated assessment of the inflation outlook and monetary policy transmission. *The ECB acknowledged that monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households. Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with core inflation also nearing the 2% target. Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating. Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment. *The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
All Federal Employees To US PopulationI think it is important for people to full understand that the 172,000 job cuts from the Federal Government is more about showmanship than logic. The federal gov employees as a % of the population has been falling for decades through the growth of the population and the economy. This is the absolute best way to reduce gov. Debt, deficits, etc.. through growth, NOT cutting and causing a heart attack! Slow mythological, calculated cuts if/when they are required are fine. chaotic, reactive, for the sake of showmanship is NOT! This will not end well. There will be consequences, people have yet to realize and appreciate the severity of these actions. These actions taken by the current administration will be felt in the markets.
FRED:CES9091000001
by RealMacro
16
Rate Cuts Are NOT BullishRate cuts in the US have never been bullish for equity markets in macro cycles. The idea that rates coming down from 5% to 4% suddenly making people more creditworthy is a farce because rates never move in anything other than large timeframe tides. These tides reflect growth/inflation expectations, not borrowing costs. Were Jerome Powell to suddenly become very dovish at the next FOMC meeting it would be a clear signal that the SHTF protocol is in full effect. Powell is more likely to talk away the negative GDP prints as demand shocks due to tariffs/trade deficit imbalances while waiting for more data to make a decision. Labor market has been declining as well but he doesn't want to make a panic decision and also probably feels no personal loyalty to help President Trump out. Historical average for US inflation is about 3.2% with the 2% target meaning deflation is a possible problem incoming. Current US inflation rate is about 3% which is well inline with the historical average. Powell will never say it but so far his mission has been accomplished. He may cut rates at the back end of the year if necessary but as of this post he has no reason to.
TVC:US02Y
by CrashoutCapital
$USPCEPIMC -U.S Price Index (January/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC 0.3% (January/2025) source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.3% month-over-month in January 2025, the same pace as in December, and in line with expectations. Prices for goods increased 0.5%, following a 0.1% rise in December and prices for services rose at a slower 0.2%, after a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, slightly above the 0.2% gain recorded in the previous month, and also matching forecasts. Food prices went up 0.3%, higher than 0.2% in December while cost of energy eased (1.3% vs 2.4%). On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.6%, marking its first slowdown in four months. Similarly, core PCE inflation declined to 2.6%, its lowest level in seven months, from an upwardly revised 2.9%.
ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
by Mr_J__fx
$USGDPQQ -United States GDP (Q4/2024)ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ 2.3% Q4/2024 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - The US economy expanded an annualized 2.3% in Q4 2024, the slowest growth in three quarters, down from 3.1% in Q3 and in line with the advance estimate. Personal consumption remained the main driver of growth, increasing 4.2%, the most since Q1 2023, in line with the advance estimate. Spending rose for both goods (6.1%) and services (3.3%). Also, exports fell slightly less (-0.5% vs -0.8%) and imports declined slightly more than initially anticipated (-1.2% vs -0.8%), leaving the contribution from net trade positive at 0.12 pp. Government expenditure also rose more (2.9% vs 2.5%). Private inventories cut 0.81 pp from the growth, less than 0.93 pp. On the other hand, fixed investment contracted more (-1.4% vs -0.6%), due to equipment (-9% vs -7.8%) and as investment in intellectual property products failed to rise (0% vs 2.6%). Residential investment however, rose more than initially anticipated (5.4% vs 5.3%). Considering full 2024, the economy advanced 2.8%.
ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 did not succeed in retesting the Mean Resistance level of 6082. Instead, the index experienced a notable decline, reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and narrowly approaching the Key Support level of 5827. Following this downturn, a significant rebound occurred, resulting in the establishment of a new Mean Support level at 5860. The index is now positioned to target the Mean Resistance level of 5967. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current level and successfully surpass the critical Mean Resistance of 5967, it may continue to rise toward the Mean Resistance level of 6032, potentially reaching the Key Resistance level of 6143. Conversely, if the index declines from its present position, it may create a retest pullback to revisit the Mean Support level of 5860 before resuming further upward momentum.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the initial rally attempt in this week's trading session, The Euro failed to reach our target of Inner Currency Rally 1.060 due to prevailing bearish sentiment. As a result, the market established a Mean Resistance target of 1.041. The current trend suggests a continuation of the downward price movement toward our designated target of Mean Support at 1.030, and there may be a retest of the Completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.020 via Key Support at 1.024. Conversely, if the anticipated downward trend does not materialize, we may witness the Eurodollar retesting the Mean Resistance level of 1.041 and subsequently target the Inner Currency Rally level of 1.060.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin was observed trading at a lower level, close to the Mean Support level of 95700. It could not reach our predetermined Mean Resistance level marked at 98300, which can be attributed to a substantial decline that occurred, resulting in the completion of our Outer Coin Dip between 89000 and 78700. Following this decline, Bitcoin experienced a robust rebound to the Mean Resistance level of 86200. This upward trend indicates the potential for higher prices as it will target Mean Resistance levels at 89200 and 92600, respectively. However, a retest of the Key Support level at 79000 must occur before further upward movement may take place.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
1
Market Update & Crypto OutlookMarket Update & Crypto Outlook Tariffs & Economic Impact Trump is leveraging tariffs as a negotiation tactic to pressure adversaries into deals. While Europe is reluctant to concede outright, they have little choice. These tariffs are shaking the markets, and we all know how sensitive elites are about their portfolios. By hitting them where it hurts—their wallets—Trump is forcing them to the table. In my opinion, this strategy will work. Over time, Europe, Ukraine, and even China will likely agree to compromises. As these agreements unfold, market uncertainty (FUD) will ease, restoring investor confidence. Inflation & Market Sentiment Markets are pricing in expected quantitative tightening , meaning no interest rate cuts for at least two years. However, I don’t believe tariffs will fuel inflation as much as feared. Reduced government spending and a stronger USD could offset price increases, maintaining purchasing power without printing money. Until markets realize this, we’ll see uncertainty, but inflation numbers may not be as catastrophic as expected , helping stabilize sentiment. Crypto & Market Cycle The bull market isn’t over, but Bitcoin finally experienced real consolidation —without heavy ETF purchases propping it up. The ETF FOMO is over , and that’s actually a good thing. Now, Bitcoin can continue its rally naturally , setting up for its final, most parabolic leg. Altcoins & The Spark for Altseason As I mentioned before, a strong dollar combined with the upcoming $5,000 stimulus checks will ignite true altseason . This influx of cash will likely fuel a major altcoin rally later this year , after the new administration distributes the payments. Conclusion Yes, it’s been painful—altcoins are bleeding, portfolios are down, and sentiment is low. But capitulation marks the bottom . Expect a bumpy March , but April and especially May* could be parabolic , making today’s struggles a distant memory. 🚀 (Everything is on the chart, check the arrows)
by CryptoNikkoid
4
The stock market is not "Crashing"!I keep hearing people saying the stock market is crashing, a mild pullback is hardly a crash, we are not crashing, at least not yet, and maybe not for an extended period. We use the S&P 500 because it is the best gauge of our markets with the most diverse representation of any of our indices. A short history of the trend of our stock marker since 1992, correlated to presidencies. 1992-1999 Clinton: Stock market transitioned from fairly flat to a steady ascending path, we reduced our yearly deficit 6 years and had a budget surplus 2 years. 2000-2007 George Bush Jr: Descending or neutral trend most of the 8 years, we broke our 15 year ascending trend and started an overall descending trend. Deregulation led to the recession via predatory lending giving Walmart cashiers $300k loans, banks labeling bad debt as Grade A and banks leveraging 80% of all of Americans money on risky investments. 2008 was devastating for the US Stock market. Increased the yearly deficit 6 of 8 years. 2008-2015 Obama: Converted descending trend back to ascending trend and trended up in a tight ascending channel for the rest of his presidency, while implementing an array of regulations to prevent banks from doing this to America again. Decreased the yearly deficit 6 of 8 years. 2016-2020 Trump.v1: Maintained tight ascending channel and broke out of 15 year resistance, introduced a lot of lot of volatility and uncertainty, ultimately ended term with the market on the same trajectory it was when he took office. Diluted all US Dollars by 50%, 25% of the dilution was in 2020, coupled with $3T of quantitative easing in a single year (2020) and more than $2T direct stimulus, this dilution and excessive stimulus during a supply chain crunch directly conveyed into rising inflation the following 2 years. Increased our yearly deficit every year in office. 2021-2024 Biden: Broke out of ascending path to a much steeper and unsustainable ascending path, likely due to all the stimulus pumped into the market in 2020 & 2021. Hard pull back in 2021/2022 as Interest rates were increased to deter spending to reduce interest rates which skyrocketed to 10% in 2021 and was brought back down to just above 2% by 2024. We saw a volatile and sharp ascending channel form. At the end of his term, the market was at top of channel and well above all time highs with some of the most growth in the stock market ever witnessed anywhere on earth, ever, as seen in the charts, nearly doubling the S&P 500 in 4 years, the American economy was booming! Decreased the yearly deficit 2 of 4 years. 2025-2038 Trump.v2: Inherited the market at all time highs on the steepest incline we have witnessed to date, and at a point the market is expected to retract based on the charts. Currently it looks like the S&P could lose 15% or so of its value and still be in our ascending channel of 6 years now. As you can see recent pullbacks don’t even register on a weekly candle. Yes these tariffs and subsequent tariff wars will almost certainly wreak havoc on markets as we already see increase in unemployment, significant drops in consumer confidence, increase in debt ceiling, increase in debt through corporate tax breaks, uptick in inflation and uncertainty in policy but --- we still have a long way to fall before we can call this a bear market or a crash. If we do breakdown from the ascending channel, we can expect the S&P to eye around 3200, or nearly half of its current value. If this administration takes over the federal reserve, they can stimulate the economy to fight the decline and prolong the consequences but those measures will involve further dilution, further debt, further smoke in mirrors, further uncertainty and will likely ignite a ticking time bomb with even greater consequences then outlined here. So in short, stop saying the market is crashing, it is not. But, be vigilant, there is a high probability of short term pullback and a long term crash based on the charts, historical precedence and current administrations activities.
TVC:SPXShort
by EncryptShawn
SPX Finally Moves, Will 6000 Hold?SPX Finally Moves – But Will 6000 Hold? | SPX Market Analysis 24 Feb 2025 Last week’s market action was like watching a cat decide whether to jump off a shelf—hesitation, commitment, regret, and then chaos. SPX pushed through the bull trigger on Wednesday, only to whip back through the hedge & bear trigger, finally showing some real movement on Friday. But before we get too excited, SPX is still stuck inside a larger range, with 6000 as the next key battleground. Will we see a range breakout or another rejection? Let’s dive in. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: SPX Moves – But Is It Just Another Range Play? Last week gave us plenty of action, but SPX hasn’t truly escaped its larger range yet. 📌 What happened last week? SPX broke the bull trigger on Wednesday 🚀 Immediately flipped back through the hedge & bear trigger 🤦‍♂️ Friday’s move finally opened things up 🔓 Now, we’re eying 6000 as the next decision point. 📌 Two potential setups: ✅ Range Reversal – Price rejects 6000 and moves back inside the range ✅ Breakout Trade – SPX clears 6000, confirming a new leg up Either way, I’ll be watching closely for the next trade setup. VIX Says ‘No Crash… Yet’ 📉 The volatility index (VIX) remains below 20, meaning: No imminent crash signals 🛑 Fear is elevated but not panicking Still room for surprises, but not full-blown chaos (yet!) If VIX jumps past 20 and keeps climbing, then we’ll talk about more extreme downside risk. Overnight Futures – A Small Bounce, But No Turn Yet 🌅 Futures are slightly green, but they don’t confirm: A major bullish turn ❌ A full-blown breakdown ❌ Right now, it’s more noise than signal. What’s Next? 📌 I remain bearish on my income swing trades 📉 📌 Waiting for confirmation—either: Bullish reversal (v-shaped price action shift) 🔄 Bearish breakdown (clean range break below 6000) 🚨 For now, it’s another waiting game—but one that could pay off big when the next major move arrives. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2010, the Flash Crash wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market value in just 36 minutes, only to recover almost entirely by the end of the day. The culprit? A single trader’s algorithm running wild. 💡 The Lesson? Sometimes, market chaos isn’t about fundamentals—it’s just a rogue algorithm losing its mind.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
2
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the most recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 surpassed our completed Outer Index Rally threshold of 6120, rendering the Key Resistance at this level obsolete. Nevertheless, following a significant price reversal, the index breached the Mean Support level of 6049 and is approaching the critical support level established at 5995. The index could decline further, potentially reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and the Key Support at 5827. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current position or the Mean Support level of 5995, it may ascend to the newly established Mean Resistance level of 6082, potentially extending toward the Key Resistance level of 6143.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week, the Euro reapproached our designated Mean Resistance level of 1.050 and reversed its upward momentum. This trend indicates a continuation of the downward price movement, establishing a new support level marked at 1.042. Further declines may materialize, with potential targets including Mean Support at 1.030, a weaker Key Support at 1.024, the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.020, and the outermost target Outer Currency Dip at 1.005. Contrariwise, should the anticipated downward correction not transpire, the Eurodollar may experience an upward rally, possibly revisiting the Mean Resistance level of 1.050 and subsequently engaging with the Inner Currency Rally target of 1.060.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During last week's trading session, Bitcoin was unable to reach our designated Mean Resistance level at 101300 and has remained stagnant near the Mean Support at 95700. This trend indicates a potential continuation of the pullback, which may cross-check the Mean Support level at 95700, with the prospect of further decline toward the Outer Coin Dip identified at 89000 via additional Mean Support levels at 94400, and 92500. Conversely, should the anticipated pullback not materialize, Bitcoin may experience upward momentum, thereby testing the newly established Mean Resistance level at 98300. This development could facilitate an extension toward 101500 and beyond.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (CPI)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 4% (January/2025) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan climbed to 4.0% in January 2025 from 3.6% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in 15 months (7.8% vs 6.4% in December), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. Further, electricity prices (18.0% vs 18.7%) and gas cost (6.8% vs 7.8%) remained elevated with the absence of energy subsidies since May 2024. Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.8%), clothing (2.8% vs 2.9%), transport (2.0% vs 1.1%), furniture and household items (3.4% vs 3.0%), healthcare (1.8% vs 1.7%), recreation (2.6% vs 4.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.4% vs 1.1%). In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-0.3% vs -2.1%) and education (-1.1% vs -1.0%). The core inflation rate rose to a 19-month high of 3.2%, up from 3.0% in December and topping consensus of 3.1%. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.5%, after December's 14-month top of 0.6% rise.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
U.S. FIRMS SWAP DOLLARS FOR EURO to lower funding costsU.S. FIRMS SWAP DOLLARS FOR EURO to lower funding costs—SMART MOVE? (1/9) Good afternoon, Tradingview! U.S. companies are flipping dollar debt into euros—slashing borrowing costs 📈🔥. Cross-currency swaps are the hot ticket amid rate gaps. Let’s break it down! 🚀 (2/9) – SWAP SURGE • Trend: Dollar bonds morph into euros 💥 • Why: Eurozone rates lag U.S. by ~200 points 📊 • Volume: $266B in Jan ‘25 swaps, up 7% YoY Lower rates, big savings—companies pounce! (3/9) – THE TRIGGER • Fed: Holds steady—U.S. rates stay high 🌍 • ECB: Eases up—eurozone softens 🚗 • Trump Tariffs: Stir inflation fears—volatility spikes 🌟 Dollar strength pushes firms to euro deals! (4/9) – HOW IT WORKS • Swap: Trade dollar debt for euro payments 📈 • Gain: Cheaper interest, currency hedge • Impact: Millions saved, euro cash flows shine It’s a financial jujitsu move—clever stuff! 🌍 (5/9) – RISKS IN PLAY • Euro Flip: Stronger euro could zap savings ⚠️ • FX Losses: Hedging costs climb if dollar dips 🏛️ • Uncertainty: Fed vs. ECB—rate dance wobbles 📉 Smart bet, but not risk-free! (6/9) – WHY NOW? • Rate Gap: U.S. high, eurozone low—carry’s juicy 🌟 • Trump Effect: Tariffs fuel dollar power 🔍 • Global Ops: U.S. firms shield Europe earnings 🚦 Timing’s ripe—swaps are the shield! (7/9) – MARKET VIBE • Early ‘25: Swap restructures cash in 🌍 • Savings: redirected to debt, flexibility 📈 • Trend Watch: Grows if rate split holds Companies adapt—financial acrobatics in action! (8/9) – Dollar-to-euro swaps—what’s your take? 1️⃣ Bullish—Cost cuts win big. 2️⃣ Neutral—Works now, risks later. 3️⃣ Bearish—Euro rebound kills it. Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY U.S. firms swap dollars for euros—saving millions as rates diverge 🌍🪙. Tariffs and Fed fuel the play, but euro risks lurk. Genius or gamble?
TVC:US10Y
by DCAChampion
SPX In Limbo - Which way will it break?SPX in Limbo – Will It Break Up or Down? | SPX Market Analysis 19 Feb 2025 Still waiting. Yep, that’s where we are. The market is about as exciting as watching paint dry, but this is not the time to get impatient. As much as I’d love to jump into a trade just to feel productive, I know better—waiting for the right entry beats chasing the wrong one. Let’s break it down while we sip on tea and pretend to be Zen masters of market patience. --- SPX Deeper Dive Analysis: Why Patience is Everything in Trading There’s an old trading rule that never fails—the market will always move… eventually. But right now, it’s in one of those frustrating, indecisive moods where: Nothing is confirming (so forcing a trade is a bad idea) It’s stuck between two key levels (meaning we wait for the breakout or breakdown) Volume is sluggish (which means false moves are more likely) Still Watching Two Scenarios ☑ Scenario #1 – The Bullish Breakout Entry Needs price to confirm above key resistance No fakeouts—just clean, strong momentum Only then do I consider a bullish trade ☑ Scenario #2 – The Bearish Reversal Entry Needs clear rejection at resistance No weak, choppy movements—just a solid confirmation Only then do I take a bearish setup Why Forcing Trades is a Losing Game Let’s be honest—waiting is boring. But do you know what’s worse? Jumping into a trade just because you're impatient… and then watching it immediately go against you. Every trader, at some point, has thought: "It looks like it’s going to move, maybe I should enter early…" (Nope.) "I don’t want to miss the move…" (You won’t—if you follow the plan.) "Other traders are jumping in—should I?" (Nope. They’re probably wrong.) The right trade at the wrong time is still the wrong trade. What’s Next? ✅ Stay patient—the market will tip its hand soon enough ✅ Wait for clear confirmation—not “I think this might be it” confirmation ✅ Don’t trade out of boredom—trade because the setup is 100% valid 📌 Final Takeaway? Patience = profit. I’m still waiting, tea in hand, and when the market finally makes its move, I’ll be ready. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The stock market used to take 5 months to process a trade before the 1970s. Now? It happens in milliseconds—but traders still struggle to wait a few hours for the right setup. 💡 The Lesson? Patience has always been a trader’s best tool. Some things never change.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
2
U.S. Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations ComparisonThe U.S. Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectation Comparison in the image attached shows the difference of the past 3 presidential administrations. I'm not trying to make this a political issue, but merely just looking at a comparison of what the masses of people have expected the future inflation rates to be in the past in order to have an idea of what to expect in the future. When looking at this comparison, it shows the difference between economic policies (different administrations) and their effects on inflation expectations. Granted, with some policy implementations having a lag effect, there is likely some overlap between administrations and their effect on the inflation expectations. The dashed orange lines show the limits of the majority of data points that fall within those dashed lines. Anything that plots outside the dashed orange lines are outliers / not normal (for the last 30+ years). COVID obviously had an outsized impact on inflation expectations since the U.S. government printed massive amounts of new money (Quantitative Easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve) to offset the closing of the economy / lockdowns due to COVID. That is marked on the chart to show approximately when that would have started. Thankfully, when COVID hit, we were at historically the lowest inflation expectations in U.S. history (as far back as the data goes on this chart). With our current administration trying to cut costs of the federal government and trying to increase external sources of tax revenue to offset decreases to internal tax revenue sources, I suspect that will decrease the federal spending (net effect). A large portion of our inflation in the U.S. economy comes from government spending and printing of new money (QE). Granted the Federal Reserve has been in a Quantitative Tightening (QT) mode lately to help cool recent elevated inflation. However, I bet the Fed will be going to a net zero (not QT or QE) stance soon before they begin QE again in the future. This will, hopefully in the short term, help inflation expectations come down, but tariffs will pressure inflation to increase if tariffs aren't offset enough by the administration lowering the taxes on U.S. citizens and businesses to have a net zero effect (which is possible). If the Federal Reserve starts QE sooner than later (highly unlikely unless our economy goes into a recession), then that will certainly put a lot of pressure on inflation to go up. This is a mistake the Fed has done before in the past back in the 1970's / 1980's until past Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised rates to the highest they've ever been to break the insane inflation rates back then. Time will tell if history rhymes again or not. I certainly hope inflation is tamed and not allowed to go crazy again. Please feel free to leave a comment / your thoughts below. I welcome all feedback on anywhere my analysis may have been wrong. Good luck trading / investing out there.
ECONOMICS:USMIE5Y
by InCogNito22
2
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 effectively reached and tested the critical Key Resistance level at 6083. It retested the completed Outer Index Rally at 6120, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend toward the intermediate target of 6233. However, a market pullback is anticipated due to this price action. Current analyses suggest that the designated downward target is set at the Mean Support level of 6049, with potential extensions to 5995, 5936, and the Outer Index Dip at 5878.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session in the current week, the Euro reached our designated Mean resistance of 1.050 and is establishing a potential resurgence of extending upward momentum to an Inner Currency Rally of 1.060. On the other hand, if the anticipated upward resurgence does not emerge, the cryptocurrency may experience a drop toward the Mean Support of 1.039. Further engaging with the Mean Support level at 1.030 and the Key Support at 1.024, ultimately progressing toward the completed outer Currency Dip target of 1.020 and outermost Outer Currency Dip of 1.005.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has remained closely aligned with the completed Outer Coin Dip at 96000. This development suggests a potential pullback to retest the Mean Support level at 91800, with the possibility of further decline down to the Outer Coin Dip marked at 89000 before a possible resurgence in the bull market. On the other hand, if the anticipated pullback does not occur, the cryptocurrency may experience upward momentum, retesting the Mean Resistance level at 101300. This could lead to an extension toward challenging the completed Outer Coin Rally at 108000 through Key Resistance at 106000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
[4H] DXY - Mid-Term Analysis Under Donald TrumpThe U.S. dollar experienced heightened volatility on the day of Donald Trump’s hypothetical inauguration for a second term as president, reflecting market uncertainty around his policy agenda. Below is an analysis of potential drivers for the dollar’s trajectory, incorporating short-term dynamics and longer-term risks: --- 1. Tariffs, Inflation, and the Fed’s Response A renewed push for reciprocal—and potentially universal (due to practicality)—tariffs could disrupt global trade flows, raising import costs for U.S. businesses and consumers. Coupled with an already tight labor market, these pressures could accelerate inflation. Elevated input costs (e.g., raw materials, manufactured goods) might manifest in key metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as early as Q2 2024 (March-May), particularly if supply chains face renewed bottlenecks. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve —which remains staunchly data-dependent—could respond with rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations. Higher interest rates would likely bolster the dollar’s appeal in the near term, attracting foreign capital seeking yield advantages in U.S. Treasuries or other dollar-denominated assets. Markets may price in this hawkish pivot ahead of official Fed action, amplifying short-term dollar strength. --- 2. Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical Risks Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric (e.g., targeting China, the EU, or emerging markets) risks sparking retaliatory measures, reviving fears of a global trade war. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty could drive investors toward traditional safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. This dynamic would likely support the DXY (Dollar Index) in the short term, particularly if equity markets react negatively to protectionist policies. --- 3. Long-Term Risks: Economic Slowdown and Eroded Confidence While tariffs and inflation may initially buoy the dollar, their prolonged implementation could backfire. Sticky or increased inflation combined with higher borrowing costs (from Fed hikes) might dampen consumer spending, corporate investment, and GDP growth. Simultaneously, trade barriers could shrink export opportunities for U.S. industries, exacerbating economic headwinds. Over a multi-year horizon, these factors could undermine confidence in the dollar’s stability, especially if deficits widen or growth stagnates ( stagflation risks ). Markets are forward-looking, however, and may begin discounting these risks earlier—potentially as soon as late 2024—if trade tensions escalate or growth indicators falter. --- Conclusion: Volatility as the Only Certainty The dollar’s path will hinge on the speed and scale of policy implementation, the Fed’s reaction function, and global market sentiment. While short-term strength is plausible due to rate hike expectations and safe-haven flows, structural risks loom on the horizon. Trump’s unpredictable policymaking style adds layers of uncertainty, suggesting the dollar could face a turbulent, news-driven cycle. Investors should brace for whipsaw moves in the DXY, with tactical opportunities in the near term countered by longer-term macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Key Watchpoints: CPI prints (Q2 2024), Fed meeting language, trade negotiation timelines, and global central bank responses to U.S. protectionism. --- This analysis balances immediate catalysts with structural shifts, acknowledging the dollar’s role as both a haven and a victim of its own policy successes.
FXOPEN:DXYShort
by KenzoYagai