Get started

Economy

S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the trading sessions of the current week, the S&P 500 Index has exhibited notable resilience, demonstrating a movement toward the Mean Resistance level of 5648 and the Key Resistance, and completed the Inner Index Rally level of 5666. A resilient rebound to this level in the upcoming week’s session is highly likely, with the possibility of further movement to the subsequent Inner Index Rally at 5739. Conversely, an anticipated downward movement toward the targeted Mean Support level of 5557 is expected upon achieving a resilient rebound.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited a modest decline, briefly breaching the predefined support level of 1.103 and decisively transitioning to the freshly established resistance level of 1.110. The transient selling propels the currency downwards to the support level of 1.101, with a potential extension to the supplementary support levels of 1.097 and 1.091 amidst the interim price movement.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The recent market activity demonstrated a resilient rebound from our Key Support level at 53000, surpassing the Mean Resistance levels at 56700 and 59700 and peaking at the newly established Mean Resistance level at 60500. Current market sentiment indicates a potential retracement to the Mean Support level at 57300 before initiating the primary rekindled rebound and progressing into the second phase to retest our completed Interim Coin Rally at 64900.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
How to Optimize Your Investments and Navigate Economic SeasonsThe economy operates in recurring phases of expansion and contraction, known as business cycles or economic cycles. These cycles play a fundamental role in shaping economic activity, employment, and investment decisions. In this article, we will explore the different phases of the business cycle, relate them to the seasons of the year, and discuss how investors and businesses can navigate these cycles effectively. 🔵𝚆𝙷𝙰𝚃 𝙸𝚂 𝙰 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴? A business cycle refers to the fluctuation of economic activity over a period, encompassing periods of growth and decline. It is measured through changes in key economic indicators such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), employment, consumer spending, and industrial production. Business cycles typically follow a regular pattern, starting with a phase of expansion, followed by a peak, a period of contraction or recession, and eventually a trough, after which the economy recovers and the cycle begins anew. 🔵𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝙽𝙳 𝚃𝙷𝙴 𝚂𝙴𝙰𝚂𝙾𝙽𝚂 𝙾𝙵 𝚃𝙷𝙴 𝚈𝙴𝙰𝚁 Each phase of the business cycle can be compared to a season of the year, which provides a helpful way to visualize the economic conditions at play: Spring (Recovery) : After the trough (winter), the economy enters a phase of recovery. Like spring, it's a time of renewal, with growth resuming and businesses beginning to thrive again. Employment rises, consumer confidence improves, and investment increases. Summer (Expansion) : The economy reaches its full strength during the expansion phase. Just like summer brings warmth and energy, this phase brings rising consumer confidence, employment, and production. Companies grow, and investments yield high returns. Autumn (Weakening) : As the cycle peaks, the economy starts showing signs of weakening, much like the cooling of autumn. Consumer spending and business growth slow down, and inflation may rise. The peak signals that the economy is at its maximum potential, and a slowdown or contraction may follow. Winter (Contraction or Recession) : In winter, the economy enters a recession, characterized by declining economic activity, falling production, and rising unemployment. Just as winter halts nature’s growth, a recession slows down economic growth. This is the time when businesses may suffer losses, and consumer confidence weakens. 🔵𝙸𝙼𝙿𝙰𝙲𝚃 𝙾𝙵 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙾𝙽 𝙳𝙸𝙵𝙵𝙴𝚁𝙴𝙽𝚃 𝚂𝙴𝙲𝚃𝙾𝚁𝚂 Business cycles affect various sectors of the economy differently. Some sectors, like consumer discretionary and industrials, tend to perform well during expansions but suffer during recessions. Others, such as utilities and consumer staples, may be more resilient during downturns, as they provide essential goods and services. For example: Technology and Manufacturing : These sectors are highly sensitive to business cycles and tend to flourish during periods of expansion due to increased consumer and business spending. Healthcare and Utilities : These sectors often remain stable during recessions because demand for healthcare and essential services remains constant. Crypto Sector: SP500: 🔵𝙽𝙰𝚅𝙸𝙶𝙰𝚃𝙸𝙽𝙶 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝚂 𝙰𝙽 𝙸𝙽𝚅𝙴𝚂𝚃𝙾𝚁 Investors can use knowledge of the business cycle to adjust their portfolios. During expansion phases, growth stocks and cyclical industries may offer better returns. Risk-On vs. Risk-Off Investing in Different Business Cycle Phases During periods of economic expansion (summer), the environment is often referred to as "risk-on." Investors are more willing to take risks because economic growth drives higher returns on riskier assets, such as equities, growth stocks, or emerging markets. As consumer confidence, business spending, and investments increase, the potential rewards from higher-risk investments become more appealing. Example of risk-on and off of cryptocurrency Example of risk-on and off of Stock Market However, during periods of economic contraction or recession (winter), investors typically shift to a "risk-off" strategy. In this phase, they seek to protect their capital by moving away from high-risk assets and toward lower-risk investments like government bonds, blue-chip stocks, or cash. The focus shifts to preserving wealth, and risk-taking is minimized or eliminated. Investors may use leading and lagging indicators to anticipate where the economy is headed. Leading indicators, such as stock market performance or consumer confidence, tend to signal changes before the economy as a whole moves. Lagging indicators, like unemployment or corporate profits, confirm trends after they occur. 🔵𝙶𝙾𝚅𝙴𝚁𝙽𝙼𝙴𝙽𝚃 𝙿𝙾𝙻𝙸𝙲𝙸𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝙽𝙳 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 Governments often intervene to smooth out the extremes of business cycles through fiscal and monetary policy. During recessions, governments may implement stimulus packages, cut taxes, or increase spending to boost demand. Central banks may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and investment. Conversely, during periods of rapid expansion and inflationary pressure, governments may raise taxes or cut spending, while central banks might increase interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. 🔵𝙲𝙾𝙽𝙲𝙻𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙾𝙽 Business cycles are a natural part of economic activity, influencing everything from consumer spending to corporate profitability and investment strategies. By understanding the phases of the business cycle (or seasons of the economy) and their impact on various sectors, investors and businesses can better position themselves to navigate economic fluctuations. Whether the economy is expanding or contracting, being aware of the current phase of the business cycle helps guide decisions, manage risks, and seize opportunities.
VANTAGE:SP500Education
by BigBeluga
3
$CNIRYY (August/2024)- China's annual inflation rate edged up to 0.6% in August 2024 from 0.5% in July, falling short of market forecasts of 0.7%. Still, it was the highest print since February, marking the 7th straight month of consumer inflation amid supply issues due to flaming heat and pouring rains. Food prices rose for the first time since June 2023, with their rate of increase the fastest in 19 months (2.8% vs flat reading in July) as fresh vegetables rebounded sharply. Meanwhile, non-food prices increased 0.2% yoy, much slower than the prior 0.7%, on softer rises in cost of clothing (1.4% vs 1.5%), housing (flat reading vs 0.1%), health (1.3% vs 1.4%), and education (1.3% vs 1.7%). At the same time, transport costs fell at a steeper rate (-2.7% vs -0.6%), with lower oil prices offsetting higher cost of utilities. Core consumer prices, deducting food and energy costs, increased 0.3% yoy, the least since March 2021. Monthly, the CPI rose 0.4%, the second month of gain but lower than consensus of 0.5%. source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the trading sessions of the current week, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated significant downward movement, completing an Inner Index Dip at 5408 and establishing a new Mean Resistance level at 5530. There is a strong likelihood of a rebound to this level. Further, emphasis is placed on achieving the extended downward move to the target marked at Mean Support 5344, where a resilient rebound is anticipated.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited a rebound from the Mean Support level of 1.102. It effectively breached our Mean Resistance level at 1.109, establishing a newly created Mean Res 1.115. The transient selling pressure led to a significant downward movement and is anticipated to retrace back towards the Mean Support at 1.102, possibly reaching down to the interim level of Mean Support at 1.097 in the interim price action.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The recent market activity witnessed a continued decline in the value of Bitcoin, leading to a significant drop and triggering a shift to our designated Key Support level of 54000. Current market sentiment indicates a potential recovery towards Mean Resistance 56700, possibly extending to Mean Resistance 59200. It is pertinent to acknowledge that persistent selling pressure at this stage could precipitate a further down towards the previously completed Interim Coin Dip 50000 before a resurgence occurs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
XAUUSD | Trade idea- **Gold Price:** Gold is holding above $2,500 ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll data, having reached a high of $2,523 yesterday and currently trading around $2,517. - **US Economy Expectations:** - August Non-Farm Payroll is expected to increase by 164,000, up from 114,000 in the previous month. - Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.5%, from 6.4%. - **Rate Cut Probability:** The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has decreased to 57% from 70% a week ago (CME Fed Watch Tool). - **US Dollar Index:** - Bullish outlook with minor support around 101.20/100.50. - Near-term resistance at 102/102.80. - **Gold Price Drivers:** - **Global Stock Market:** Bearish, which is positive for gold. - **US Dollar Index:** Bullish, which is negative for gold. - **US 10-Year Bond Yield:** Bearish, positive for gold. - **Technical Analysis:** - **Support:** Near-term support at $2,470; a break below targets $2,449/$2,430. - **Resistance:** Minor resistance at $2,520; a break above could lead to $2,525/$2,530.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by DCFX-TA
The economy peaked in April 2023"JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!" As Obama said during the recovery period post GFC This chart shows the employment level --- how many people are employed in the States / divided by the unemployment level --- the number of people without a job. . A simple Ratio With all the official Recessions highlighted in the red box. The dates of the recessions are from Wikipedia. JOBS are the ECONOMY Goods and services are still made by people. (That is obviously under attack by robotics and AI) --- but will likely lead to new economies being birthed and new jobs created. THE #FED is late to cut and will likely cut too slowly guaranteeing a GDP contraction therefore further job losses. HOLDING RISK ASSETS IS RISKY needless to say.
FRED:CE16OV
by BallaJi
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 30, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the current week's trading sessions, the S&P 500 Index has exhibited notable fluctuations, initially reaching the Mean Support level of 5570 and subsequently demonstrating resilience by rebounding toward the specified targets outlined in the preceding weekly analysis, encompassing the completed Inner Index Rally at 5666 and Key Resistance level at 5667. Beyond those targets, the focus is on attaining the extended rebound targets, specifically the next Inner Index Rally at 5745 and the long-awaited Outer Index Rally at 5840. It is essential to recognize that achieving these targets will likely prompt a selling price action.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 30, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar has demonstrated significant downward momentum after retesting the pivotal completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.120. The resultant downward trend has effectively suppressed our Mean Support at 1.111 and currently encounters selling pressure at the present level, potentially driving the price down to our designated support levels of 1.102 and 1.097. Nevertheless, the possibility exists of transient buying pressure, which will cause a push in price to Mean Resistance at 1.109 in the interim price action.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 30, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The "Primary Squeeze" of Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop to our Mean Support levels at 62700 and 60300, and it currently hovers just above the critical Mean Support level at 57600. Currently, the cryptocurrency is positioned for further upward movement, with the primary target being a retest of the completed Interim Coin Rally marked at 64900. It is noteworthy that the selling pressure at this level may lead to a decline in the coin's price towards the Key Support level at 54000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Disney About to Give it Up! | $DIS SHORTLooks like the moment of truth for Mickey & Co. I have been covering this one for a long time, with numerous mentions that Disney is a sell / short. How low this thing will go, we do not know. Right now I am comfortable saying, -50% is probable. While there are many factors in play, the broader economy is weak and Disney has done nothing but push people away with their radical political positions. Additionally, the destruction of "woke" mob is unfolding before our eyes. Short Disney. Make Money. If this changes, I will update.
NYSE:DISShort
by ChiefMacro
4
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the current week's trading session, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated notable resilience, surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 5564 and positioning itself beneath the attained Inner Index Rally at 5666. The prevailing price action indicates a sustained upward momentum aimed at retesting the completed Interim Index Rally at 5666, with an eye on the subsequent upside objectives represented by the Inner Index Rally at 5745 and the ultimate Outer Index Rally at 5840. It is important to note that the attainment of these targets is likely to prompt a selling price action.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar showed strong upward momentum throughout this week's trading session. It reached our Key Resistance at 1.111 and completed the Inner Currency Rally at 1.112. Further buying pressure pushed the price to complete an extended Inner Currency Rally at 1.120, with the potential to reach the completed Outer Currency Rally at 1.124. Conversely, selling pressure at the current level could drive the price down to our Support level of 1.111.
by TradeSelecter