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Economy

The Proper Perspective on InflationAs any true trader knows, the inflation rate DID NOT GO UP 8.3%. That is what some retail news outlets claimed "year-over-year," which is plain misinformation. The retail news was designed to trigger a panic dump among the less informed last week. FACT: The rise in inflation started in late 2020, not this year. FACT: The rise in 2021 went to 7%. But the news seldom mentioned it last year. Nope, it was all about vaccines and Covid, etc. The inflation rate went down. It has been trending downward at a sustainable rate. Anyone who thought it would be lower was not paying attention. There is a 3-month decline, and it is due to falling oil prices which were constantly boosted upward during August by the big banks trying to move more investors into buying oil stocks. So, with fluctuating prices of oil between 80 - 92, there was NO WAY inflation would tick down to 8.1%. In August of 2021, inflation had already risen to 5.3%. Now in 2022, it has dropped to 8.3% from the peak of 9.1% in June. So it's 3 points higher than a year ago, obviously not 8.3 points higher. During the pandemic of 2020, the news about the Federal Reserve Board was all lathered up about deflation, that deflation was about to happen, and the world was coming to an end!!!! Sigh. Some people just have to have bad news to feel good, I guess. Oil and the war in Ukraine, which appears to be settling down with the Ukrainians taking back what is rightly their country, has lowered oil prices from $125 to 80-90, fluctuating regularly. Oil needs to drop to 70-80 for inflation to move down more. Slow improvement is how it is going to be. To assume inflation would just drop back to 2% is irrational and illogical. What is an ideal rate? For an expanding economy: around 4-5%. See that red arrow? That should be the goal. It probably is not, but it should be. Inflation lower than that indicates a sluggish economy with a lack of raises for the workforce. When inflation is not in the economy, corporations use buybacks to boost their stock prices, which creates fake rallies.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
⁉️ Economic calendar week 19.09-23.09 Hello traders! ✅ The upcoming week will be full of events. The most important are central bank meetings in USA, Switzerland and UK as we expect to have an increase of bank rate. ✅ During FED Meeting market watchers will be on high alert for how the U.S. central bank views the current pace of monetary tightening, the strength of the economy, and how likely inflation is to persist - as well as signs of how the balance sheet unwind is proceeding. ✅ The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday with officials expected to deliver a 75-basis-point rate hike, matching the European Central Bank’s recent move even though inflation in the Eurozone is far outstripping Switzerland. ✅ The Bank of Japan also meets on Thursday amid speculation that Japanese authorities are close to intervening in the foreign exchange market to support the weak yen, which hit a 24-year low against the dollar earlier this month. My recommendation is to avoid trading during this events.
by Snick3rSD
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For September 16, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Eurodollar has completed Interim Rebound to our Mean Res 1.0180 and retreated viciously downward by forming a new Mean Res 1.0117 - with the possibility to be re-tested. The currency continues to move about the 1.000 threshold by closing slightly above the newly created Mean Sup 0.9970. The Key Sup 0.9880 and our open Inner Currency Dip 0.9852 continue to be the main target, with further expansion to the Next Inner Currency Dip 0.9570 and the lower mark is in the making.
by TradeSelecter
Capitulation IndicatorThe 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate. A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens. Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63 in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a return of 17.066%. Both the 30:10 Ratio and DXY performance are indicating an extreme lack of confidence in the strength of the Economy. Quite recently Cross Flows among Capital Stocks - largest Inflows this week are 2-year Treasury Bills @ 288%. The flow was Net Cash to the Curve by Institutional Investors. Concerns are rising with respect to both the return of Capital as well as the return on Captial. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ $3.196 Trillion across - Stock Index Futures, Stock Index Options, Stock Options, & Single Stock Futures. P/C remains elevated @ .72 with .76 being the Pivot. The LIS for 4X Expiry is SPX 3900, we will need to see Open Interest activity as the Day progresses. It will either be supported for the Close or it will not as the next support is the Lows in June. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ It is important to observe the steep decline in Open Interest. The largest SPY Roll was into the OCT Expiry @ 372 Puts. SPX shows a parallel Roll. Please watch the Globex Lows - the NQ and ES can trade lower, it will be important for the NYSE Open. I focused initially on CASH for TECH - QQQ's 285 had the largest Roll period. In addition, all Strikes with a few exceptions up to 310 had retail rolling from 287. At the moment the O/I is churned for tomorrow, with both ROLL and SWAP to Retail, BUT Retail was a net BUYER of Calls. 383 is the Primary Support now that we crushed the trend lines, the Fibs line up there for the SPY. The ONLY issue I see is the Algos took the ES Futures up and over its Pivot trendline at the Close by a very small amount. Whether or not we open Up and then backtest or fall away will depend on several indications from the VIX VVIX $ 2YY... Volumes will be enormous. I'm looking over correlations and ratios and then swinging back around to Futures Options. This is what sticks out at present, the concern, of course, is Retail Longs who thought yesterday was a great day to enter Calls. What stands out is the size of Roll skipping the weekly expirations for both the SPY, SPX & QQQs. Intra-Week Roll is almost non-existent. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ **** This week matches a record from 1930 -the lowest raw number of Stocks Up as a percentage. I warned of the 4X Expiry being a large Risk, for revview -
TVC:US30Y
by HK_L61
2
Week Ahead: Gas demand weaker * Oil Formed a descending Triangle. Giving more bearish confirmation of target of $60 * FED giving signs of another 75-point basis hike. Recession fears are bearish for oil * Demand slows down worries due to China’s zero COVID policy and OPEC+ cutting production * Energy Price Cap oil gapped up from opening on September 4th. Extended 3% by September 5th. Then losing almost 10% of gains. Reaching the price of $90 on September 5th, and dropping to $81 on September 8th. Then ended the week with a 5% gain. Closing weekly at the lowest since January 17th starting week. Crude oil inventories rose last week by 8.844 million. Indicating demand is weakening. It was expected inventories were to fall by just 250,000 barrels. I am anticipating oil to gap down during opening today. I am waiting to see how it will react to this trend line if it is going to continue down. Broke out of the descending triangle. Looks like it came back up for the last touch On Sunday, September 4, 2022, Russia announced the closure of its main gas supply pipeline to Europe. This spiked fears into the energy market. Both Natural gas and crude oil both gapped 1% before the closing of September 4th. Monday, September 5th the OPEC+ held a meeting. Production was cut by 100,000 barrels a day for the month of October. OPEC+ is already below meeting production. Supply fears pushed Oil up 5%. After oil digested the news it fell from $90 to about $81.14. Concerns of sluggish global demand outweighed the warning of President Vladimir Putin about the potential withdrawal of oil form of Russian Energy. Also new COVID lockdowns in China. Chinese imports fell 9.8% in August. The OPEC+ cut was larger for Asia and Europe indicating weaker anticipated demand. Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt all oil and gas supplies if price caps are imposed on Russian energy resources. Hours later EU proposed to cap Russian gas. The OPEC+ cut was done due to the possibility of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. This deal is expected to release over 1 million BPD of supply into the market
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn36761102
2
DO NOT BUY BITCOIN YET … The whole entire stock market and crypto are going to be crashing much worse. Why? - monkeypox/Orthopoxvirus 18,400 cases - monkeypox global cases 50,000 COVID-19 aka SARS-Cov-2 - Global: 602 million cases / Deaths: 6.50 million USA: 94.2 million cases/ deaths: 1.04 million The Epidemic Is NOT OVER. Now for the government On September 1st they going to take 90 billion off the market which will cause volatile insane of all the markets and cryptos. Last time in June the took 40 billion out which is why cause everything to crash. As for bitcoin we are still in a high sell Pressure we aren’t bottom yet. 12K along with a dip has stronger floors & 10K with a dip as well which will cause the bulls to take the full recovery.. if I were you please do not buy bitcoin yet it’s still too early and we aren’t bottom yet. Stay safe
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
3
Bitcoin In a Sucker's Rallyhello frends its ur pal coinholio and i have an opinion abou the marked my thinkings is that the bit coin is not at a good price. too much people think that fed will pivot at the first sign of a down turn and we will get qe to maek price again. me no thinks that will happen sooner enough until market is alredy worse than it be right now. there is a rally in stocks that bitcoin follow right now because some peeps think we can land softly, but i think we will land on our bungholes, let me explain the reason why: fed pause is not fed stimmy if internet rates make a rise, the fed will stop making them go. but fed will not give stimmy until everyone gets fired and we are balls deep in a recession. me thinks not only the soft landing narrative is false, it will break down in the next few months and bitty will be mad. recession will come sooner at the end of the year and stimmy in mid to late 2023. the numbers of peoples with job is still very high but its one of the only raisins that we arent in official recessino, spy lags behind, but bitty will follow spy price action and get crushed to oblivion in a recession. people is buying less stuffs, less stuffs is being producted, there is less supply, less demand, less of the real wagerinos. we is at the cusp of recession and its coming sooner than u think. my source is a forest rat, i met him in a forest and his name is benjamin and he told me that things are looking bad and i should move into the forest with him. then we discusted the market and he said he sold his house a few months ago. some people use like, leading and coincidence indicators to make decides about this but woodland creatures i thin can tell a more accurate story about whas gonna happen. im gonna not post much cuz they dont have internet in the forest but i put a lot of money into james bond and took him into the forest cuz apparently he does goodly during slowing economix gross. thank you for watching if u like my video please smash that like button and subscribe to my channel and dont forget to enable the notifications so i can tell u which berries are safe to eat and which ones give u the runs
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by coinhoIio
S&P 500: Daily outlookS&P 500 forming a bearish Gartley pattern that I found out in Daily chart, what we could to see a bearish movement to the previously lower like 3600 pts. Also, remember that this occur what happen what the FED could to hike interest rate right now in September put the global financial market in worst situation of the bear market. And also tightening the America monetary policy. Talking about technical analysis, we see that S&P 500 forming a higher low in 3 occasion that maybe, I thinking that stock market could to be a possible market crash what FED do, and also cooling down the inflation rate But now, S&P 500 show us that stock market could to be weak during the next days, and also very correlated with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to short this assets. I hope that this idea support you!!!
SP:SPXShort
by harisonhbn9718