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Economy

SPX - Calculating the odds of a RecessionUnderstanding the possibility and consequences of a recession by determine the strength of U.S Economy using key economic indicators GDP - In order to sustain the economy consumption must be increased meanwhile, Fed trying to tame inflation by implementing policies that will going to reduce the demand. Ergo, The GDP is expected to fall by 1.25 next quarter. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - Every time a huge trend of layoffs starts 45 days prior to a recession. at this point, No major corporate layoffs have taken place and currently the unemployment rate is at historically low levels. INFLATION RATE - High oil prices, Supply Chain disruption, Hyper inflation risks across the globe and most importantly higher interest rates, There is no doubt that inflation rate will counting rising. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX - Current level is below 60 which reflects lower consumer confidence which will result in lower consumer spending DOLLAR's PURCHASING POWER - U.S Dollar getting stronger against other fiat currencies, However it's purchasing power is eroding, High interest rates have strengthened the U.S dollar and it's expected to continue rising. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity - Short term vs Long term treasury inflows, Whenever yield nears the zero or becomes negative then recession follows. Federal Funds Rate - Interest rates are expected to hit 3.75% by the end of this year, There will be several rate hikes in the following months that will result in global economic slowdown. Geopolitical Risk - Disruption of world order has already begun with Russia's Invasion of Ukraine, Growing risks of China and Taiwan conflicts, Shri Lanka's Crisis, Turkey's Hyperinflation risk and if U.S economy crashes then a new world order is imminent. Conclusion: Current Health status of U.S economy is bearable However, projection for upcoming quarter is uncertain, the most optimistic part is low unemployment rates, Financially strong businesses and Strong households with higher savings rate, in turns following rate hikes cannot be associated with an inevitable recession. Health care and defense sectors with high dividend yield stocks are greater alternatives to invest in.
SP:SPX
by EQTSHARES
2
SPY either outlier or on perfect course You can see there is a strong difference between the real cyclical bear market and the current correction. Also the primary bull market last 25 years last time from 75' till the 00'. We are now at around half cycle (13 years in). Last cycle SPX did 20x since cycle low the cycle before was around 13x (if data reliable), now we have just done 6x really underperforming. The 52 weeks MA has been the support of the bull market cycle as you can see in the chart. Hence I doubt the current correction will last for much more.
SP:SPXLong
by CFcryptoTA
DXY macroview for 2022 - Will the history repeat?This analysis has a lot to look at. Lets begin with the DXY at the end of the 70s, those times my parents were just born, so I had to do research. The US 70s crisis. According to the information I gathered, this crisis was due to the trade balance deficit. A strong speculation against the dollar appeared due to the American economic weakness. In March of 1985 the DXY crashed 52% and by September of 1992 a bounce happened, this bounce took the DXY to the 0.5 Fib Retracement level, and when this level was reached, the .com bubble took place. In January of 2002 until February 2008 the DXY crashed 41% very similar to the previous scenario. (To make this easier to understand I drew a path using dotted lines, the pattern is similar except on the timing aspect.) So I think that the DXY will reach the 0.786 level area and then … darker days will come. I'm also considering the “The typical big cycle behind empires rises and declines” by Ray Dalio and also the fact that every 100 years empires suffer. 83 years have passed since the start of WWII, this war marked the beginning of the American empire, this means that we are 17 years away from the 100 anniversary, these 17 years coincide with the emergence of China as the 1st world power. This is all I have to say for this analysis, I appreciate your attention
TVC:DXY
by Ylesc4s
Btc potential moveif btc close below 19k this weekend, i can sey the next week will be historical. there are to supports waiting for the btc fist one is between 18k-16900 , and the second is between 13900 and 11800. Not forgetting what is going on in the global economy, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, which will cause investors to sell their positions in riskier assets ( crypto , stocks) and lead to a significant drop in these markets. These investors will prefer to put their money into bonds that the federal government will print at higher yields. that is my personal opinion.
Short
by moadsr01
DXY EconomyThu 6/9 Z.1 - Financial Accounts of the United States 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates 4:30 p.m. H.4.1 - Factors Affecting Reserve Balances Fri 6/10 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates 4:15 p.m. H.8 - Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the U.S. Mon 6/13 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.10 - Foreign Exchange Rates 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates Tue 6/14 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates Wed 6/15 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting Two-day meeting, June 14-15 Press Conference 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates Thu 6/16 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates 4:30 p.m. H.4.1 - Factors Affecting Reserve Balances Fri 6/17 9:15 a.m. G.17 - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates 4:15 p.m. H.8 - Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the U.S.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by cryptobetgang