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Economy

A Little RantWhere to begin? In my history of learning, reading, trading, analyzing, I have never seen a market more manipulated and completely disconnected not only from the economy, but reality. We have come to a time in our society where economic data no longer has ANY impact on equities. We witness the week of Feb 7th till today, Feb 16th a release of horrible economic news. Let's go through it shall we? Worse Than Expected CPI Far Worse Than Expected Consumer Sentiment. Worse Than Expected PPI Q1 GDP Estimates Now 0.1% or Contraction 7 in 10 Americans Live Paycheck to Paycheck Home Builder Confidence Falls Personal Credit/Debt New Records What we are witnessing is the QE going to corporations through corporate bond buying, in turn we saw the greatest massing of corporate buy backs thus pushing stocks higher and higher. Most companies are trading well over 20x earnings. It's a bubble of idiocy and greed. The issue is simple, scary, and unavoidable at this point. All of this printing has caused probably the worst inflation in US history. The money printer's solution is raising rates, tapering, and shrinking balance sheet, which will prick this equities bubble. The response to a bear market will be.... guess what? More QE, slashing rates but this time, it'll be game over. The USD will have finally met its end as it's de-pegged as the world reserve currency. It won't matter because as the US is facing its currency crisis, other nations will face their own fiat crisis. Whatever way you cut it, whatever action they take, there will be hurt and at least a recession plus stock market collapse like we've never seen.
TVC:DJIShort
by WorldEconomics
14
BOUGHT DIPS…TIME TO EAT CHIPS - BOTTOM REACHED FOR BTC! Analysts according to the news feed on Bitcoin Fear & Greed index claim we have reached the bottom of the downtrend…as the geopolitical climate is affecting many countries we are seeing liquidity moved to crypto especially BTC. people are choosing not to trust their money with their governments and even centralized exchanges. Canada just saw the largest withdraw of money from their banking system with the threat of cyber-tyranny. This is why we invest in bitcoin. I’m bullish for now….using Pionex Margin grid bot (leveraged 4x) indicated by the most recent blue entry flag. We NEED to hit $39,500 to sustain this movement! #BUYINGDIPSANDEATINGCHIPS
Long
by Fabreezio
The Oldest Safety What does the future bring in terms of Gold? One might say, if the markets and economy collapses, gold will rise as people flood to safety. This is both true and not. Take a look at gold during the biggest economic turmoil events in the passed 20-years. Specifically, 2008 Great Recession and 2020 Pandemic Collapse. Both 2008 and 2020 share the same moves. During times of absolutely fear, everything sold, including Gold. Gold fell 34% from March 2008 to Oct 2008 before investors fled into gold which rallied it 180%. During March 2020 collapse, Gold fell 14% before rallying 43%. The point is, if the markets fall due to numerous events as listed in the chart, we can see gold sell before rallying. Depending on how bad the damage is... gold may recover or may not. I see two possible scenarios: 1) The current Monetary Fiat System faces unrivaled turmoil and the once unthinkable national defaults occur, pushing gold to unimaginable highs where world central banks agree to establish a new world monetary system based on an established rate for gold probably over $10,000 an ounce. 2) Gold declines so low that there is no desire to hold or hedge into it. I still believe a new monetary system would be established. These events seem... beyond reasoning right? We have to face realities that we never faced before. There has been at least 2 new world monetary systems since 1900s. Bretton Woods was one of them. No Fiat currency ever lasted forever. The debt is unsustainable, and will never be paid down. Hyper Inflation and Stagflation are two words becoming used more and more even by mainstream economists. We can't be naive to the fact that even the mightiest world fiat currencies can fail. The problem is when we do not consider this a possibility or brush it off as "not in my lifetime". The Germans said that with their Mark. I'm sure they said this in Zimbabwe with their currency. It comes down to, not if, but how soon and what event will cause it? Be safe. Things can change on a dime these days.
TVC:GOLD
by WorldEconomics
Macro study of U.S. economy - Market warning signals?They do not scream "SELL" just yet, but these indicators offer strong caution of further market correction. Please take some time to study the charts so you understand the story they tell. I am not an economist; I am a trader who has been learning more about bonds and macro indicators. (I have ignored the pandemic drop because it was extraneous to normal economic factors that move markets.) ISM Manufacturing > A leading indicator - below 50 indicates contraction > Peak expansion in 2021 seems to have ended, yet wages have risen - this will pinch corporate profits > If next month is lower, it indicates further slowdown (slowing expansion) > Texas manufacturing for Jan'22 showed concerning declines > Note the readings below 50 from Aug-Dec 2019 indicated a problem. Covid-19 did not cause markets to drop; it exaggerated the move. HYG high yield bond ETF > Includes many junk bonds - indicative of economy's credit situation (corporate, municipal, consumer) > Yellow lines show the beginning of a significant drop that indicated worsening credit conditions > Note the "valleys" below 85 match with SPY corrections > Will this keep dropping to 81-80? CCI - Consumer Confidence Index > A leading indication of people's optimism about economy > Red rectangles show significant drops that corresponded with SPY correction > Does most recent CCI drop reflect more SPY correction?
ECONOMICS:USCCIEducation
by OptionsRising
4
(US30 4H) Yes... A little dramatic but US30 If we can't hold support I see a 20% correction then we will see how people feel after that. We have been going up since I have been born lol. Another big dip would defiantly improve its chances in making a new all time highs for the future, but feel detrimental short term. KEY LEVELS: SUPPORT - 34000 MORE SUPPORT - 29092 THE VERY WORST POSSIBILITY BUT... If we see a DAILY candle break below this red line (33,140) We're Ducked quack quack Happy Friday Traders
OANDA:US30USD
by andreleonard98
The Bourne Ultimatum - Which Path?Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? Ask yourself if you was a ruthless criminal with all the power in your hands what would you do? CURRENCYCOM:US100 CAPITALCOM:US100 OANDA:NAS100USD BLACKBULL:NAS100 SKILLING:NASDAQ GLOBALPRIME:NAS100 FRED:NASDAQCOM NASDAQ:NDAQ NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX TVC:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD FXOPEN:SPXM EIGHTCAP:SPX500 FOREXCOM:SPXUSD AMEX:SPY BCBA:SPY FINRA:SPY_SHORT_VOLUME OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER TVC:PLATINUM TVC:PALLADIUM TVC:USOIL BITSTAMP:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL NASDAQ:NCI
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by MaverickTrading