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USD/TRY's dramatic intervened drop is stablising around 11.0000The USD/TRY pair extended its dramatic turnaround from a record high touched earlier this week and continued losing ground through the mid-European session on Thursday. This marked the fourth successive day of a negative move and dragged spot prices to a six-week low, around the 10.20 region in the last hour. The pair, however, found some support at lower levels and quickly bounced back above the 11.00 round-figure mark. The Turkish lira's recent strong gains came after the government announced extraordinary measures on Monday, which include the introduction of a new program to protect savings from currency fluctuations. Adding to this, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the government and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) would guarantee certain local currency deposits against losses from FX depreciation. Erdoğan also reassured that citizens would not have to convert lira savings into foreign exchange due to volatility and emphasized that Turkey is committed to the free market economy. The President further underlined that Turkey is adamant about its new economic model and stuck to his unconventional policy to use lower interest rates to combat inflation. Nevertheless, the lira remains on track to record its best weekly gains ever, of around 40% and seemed rather unaffected by a modest pickup in US dollar demand. That said, extremely overstretched conditions prompted some short-covering amid relatively thin liquidity ahead of the year-end holiday season. - USD/TRY remained under intense selling pressure for the fourth successive day on Thursday. - The recent measures announced by the Turkish government continued lending support to the lira. - Extremely overstretched conditions prompted intraday short-covering move amid thin liquidity. >Dollar Edges Lower as Confidence Over Omicron Supports High Yielders The dollar traded marginally lower early in the European session Thursday, near a one-week low, amid growing optimism for the global economic outlook despite the surge of Omicron-variant Covid cases. At 2:50 AM ET (0750 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, fell 0.1% to 96.043, having earlier fallen to 96.018 for the first time since Dec. 17. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 114.19, with the yen, another safe haven, slipping despite Japan upgrading earlier Thursday its growth projections for the next fiscal year starting in April. The growth projection was raised to 3.2% for fiscal 2022 from a forecast 2.2% real GDP growth seen at a mid-year review in July. This would be the fastest growth since fiscal 2010. EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1338, adding to its overnight advance, GBP/USD climbed 0.1% to 1.3354, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7218, after Wednesday’s surge of almost 1%. Risk sentiment has improved as the week has progressed, helped by a couple of studies suggesting that patients with the Omicron variant face a lower risk of hospitalization and severe disease compared with the Delta variant, the previously dominant strain. Also helping was the release of positive U.S. economic data on Wednesday, with GDP growing 2.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter and existing home sales rising 1.9% in November. However, it was U.S. consumer confidence improving more than expected in December despite the resurgence in Covid-19 infections which had the biggest impact. “Expectations about short-term growth prospects improved, setting the stage for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, major appliances, and vacations over the next six months all increased,” said a Conference Board spokeswoman. The economic data slate is packed Thursday, including initial jobless claims, new home sales, durable goods orders, and the PCE price index. It also includes personal income and spending, as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and expectations indexes. Elsewhere, USD/TRY dropped 1.8% to 11.8270, with the lira continuing to rebound after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that measures to protect the Turkish lira bank deposits from depreciation amid a currency crisis have achieved their goal. That said, the currency is still about 40% down so far this year after a series of interest rate cuts, engineered by the president, despite inflation soaring over 20%. Elsewhere, the Russian ruble rose to its highest level in over a month ahead of President Vladimir Putin's annual press conference, against a backdrop of continued tension on the Ukrainian border, where over 100,000 Russian troops have massed. Analysts will want to see whether Putin repeats to a more general audience the hawkish comments that he made to his defense chiefs earlier in the week. >USD/TRY's dramatic intervened drop is stablising around 12.0000 USD/TRY is stabilising following three consecutive days of falling prices that have wiped out the November rally. At the time of writing, USD/TRY is trading at 12.0354 and in between an 11.9655 and 12.0828 range so far. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ordered the Turkish central bank to start reducing interest rates earlier in the year which led to the currency falling around 50% since September. Inflation rose 21.31% in November compared to the same period last year. On a monthly basis inflation rose 3.51% compared to October. The president insisted on four interest rate cuts over the four months despite surging inflation and the market responded in kind. However, on Monday 20 December the TRY weakened significantly when President Erdoğan said in a televised speech that he will continue cutting interest rates after rates were cut by 100 basis points. This took the rate to -6%, the lowest in the world and the TRY to the weakest level since the 1980s. However, there was a dramatic comeback in the currency when the government announced a series of measures to support the currency on Monday. Amongst other measures, including direct FX forward contracts from the central bank for companies heading overseas business, Erdoğan explained that the government will protect lira deposits by making up for the losses incurred. TRY has rallied, and the plan is working, so far. However, if the president is intent on cutting rates in an inflationary environment, then the lira will be left vulnerable to further weakness. Technicals are futile under such fundamental drivers and wild price action as this, but nevertheless, if there is to be stability, then the range are between 11.0000 - 14.0000 . - BUYING PRESSURE PRICE 10.2000 - 11.3000 - Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR BUYERS DECISION PRICE ACTION WITH A CONFIRMATION. - Economy BUBBLE has happened or is close to !! - The outlook and the overall trend for the pair is BULLISH. Prev. Close 12.0373 Bid 11.3001 Day's Range 10.2329 - 12.3582 Open 16.4798 Ask 11.494752 wk Range 6.8882 - 18.36741 Year Change 57.36% It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
by AliSamadiTR
9
USD/TRY Targeting above 20.0000 | Q2 Q3Economists look for further sharp Turkish lira depreciation. They forecast the USD/TRY above the 20.00 level in the second quarter of the year. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬: “We think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to around 19 by end-Q2.” “𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐨 𝐟𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐬.” “𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑 𝐨𝐧𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬, 𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫, 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲.” The Turkish lira halted its depreciation in levels just below the 14.00 mark vs. the US dollar at the end of the week, all amidst a narrow trading range in USD/TRY. USD/TRY remains poised for extra gains: USD/TRY seems to have met quite a decent barrier near 14.00 the figure on Friday, although it managed to record new highs for the year, nonetheless. In the meantime, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐲 𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐞𝐞𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝟏𝟗-𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐛𝐞𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝟑𝟔% 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 (𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲). From the Turkish cash markets, yields of the 5y and 10y bonds reverse the recent multi-session weakness and resume the upside to past the 24% mark and just above 23%, respectively. The recent decline in yields have been promoted by purchases of government debt by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) according to latest news. What to look for around TRY: The lira resumed the downtrend while market participants continue to digest the recent inflation figures and the government scheme to protect deposits in the domestic currency. The reluctance of the CBRT to change the (collision?) course and the omnipresent political pressure to favour lower interest rates in the current context of rampant inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are forecast to keep the lira under intense pressure for the time being, That said, another visit to the all-time high north of the 18.00 mark in USD/TRY should not be ruled out just yet. Eminent issues on the back boiler: Progress (or lack of it) of the new scheme oriented to support the lira. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic. Potential assistance from the IMF in case another currency crisis re-emerges. Presidential elections in 2023. 𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬: So far, the pair is losing 0.24% at 13.7871 and a drop below 12.7523 (weekly low Jan.3) would pave the way for a test of 11.9694 (55-day SMA) and finally 10.2027 (monthly low Dec.23). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.8967 (YTD high Jan.3) followed by 18.2582 (all-time high Dec.20) and then 19.0000 (round level). 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬, 𝐢𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝟏𝟏.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 - 𝟏𝟔.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 - BUYING PRESSURE PRICE 10.2000/11.3000 - Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR BUYERS DECISION PRICE ACTION WITH A SECOND CONFIRMATION. - Economy BUBBLE has happened or is close to !! - The outlook and the overall trend for the pair is SO BULLISH . - 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
by AliSamadiTR
9
Trading Index Futures?Entry: 4165, Stop loss: 4185, Take Profit: 4105 ( conservative ) 4080 ( radical ) If you're trading index futures I would be cautious of where to put your monies. I'm bearish for many reasons: - Increasing inflation, continued economic growth while feds are trying to put the flames out of the overheated economy, increasing interest rates to lower consumer and producer spending (businesses will eventually have lower earnings growth -- affecting investors sentiment in regards to EPS and dividends), and many many more.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by charrison4300
$SPY Let's See Where We GoCurrently, $SPY is working with in solid range, but it looks like $385 might be the bottom. If it breaks $385 we will move down to $330 but I doubt it breaks. I think is not the beginning of the end but the start of a new trading pattern. Chop possibly for the rest of the yea. Up and down movement working within the range of $450-$410, but again the market can do whatever it wants but my guess is we do not see $500 for another 2-3 years, we got some consolidation to do before we get that type of movement, the last two years are bad examples of the market volatility and movement. The market relied heavily on tech stocks to bolsters itself through the pandemic, with strong earning reports quarter after quarter from the FAANGs (largely tech companies), the "market" was able to rally. The "rally" was more so bullish sentiment built on a façade, it was like looking at a mirage of water in a desert, it looks great but when you finally get there, there is no water. That is how our market acted, we finally got to the top, we got out of the pandemic and we realized there was no water. The market was overbought, there is a myriad of reasons why: stimulus checks, retail trading boost, people staying home, transportation cost reduction, you name it. Yet no one factored any of these into their estimations, like how could you not factor in the price of gas in a company like Amazon, gas costs went down, product costs remained the same, margin increase. But let's say you did see that and factor it in, you also missed the fact that over millions Americans continued to eat, while the workers to produce food decreased, leading to a decrease in reserve supplies to produce food, leading to global shortages that we will be facing in the next couple of months. By the time most people realized this, it was too late. But none of the matters because now people overreacting, they are selling everything and that's where you the smart savvy investor come in. Snapchat is down 40% today (5/24), oversold, when people are bearish bad news becomes the worst news in history, and this plays into my theory. That the reason the market is tanking is not due to some economic collapse, the stock market doesn't work in tandem with the economy anymore, not since 2008. If it did, 2020 and 2021 would have been much worse. No the stock market operates on it's own and is controlled by major capital. Tech stocks need to rebalance, they were overbought, this should not be a shock to anyone. In order to achieve in equilibrium in the stock market we most lower the prices of the FAANGs + MTBV, this will allow the market to find a balance to build up from. The issue with selling the FAANGs + MTBV is that drags down the entire market, which if you remove the tech sector has been down for the last couple of months, so mid-caps and small-caps have been hammered by this downward movement. Snapchat being down %40 is a buy opportunity, Pinterest losing 23% off Snapchat bearish sentiment is a buy opportunity, Trade Desk hitting almost a 2 year low, buy opportunity. Even if I am wrong, and the market turns down for the next 1.5 years, in 3 years you will have made a profit. That is the wonderful part of the stock market, in a 20 year time span you are less than 0.01% to lose money. But if I am correct and the market jumps from here you just missed your best buy opportunity. FAANGs + MTBV: Facebook (Meta) Apple Amazon Netflix Google (Alphabet) Microsoft Tesla Berkshire Hathaway Visa
AMEX:SPY
by chasenlz
2
📊S&P500: recession vs growth in 2022! Prediction for BTC!Hi friends! In this idea I will share my point of view about the stock and the cryptocurrency market in 2022. Perhaps you have noticed how they are linked? Will 2022 be the year of the big fall or the price will renew ATH? Well, let's start one by one. 📊The stock market. As you can see from the chart, it has been rising for about 100 years now. The 2020 covid-19 crisis looks like a local correction compared to the Great Depression of the 30s. Back then, the market fell by 89% and was only able to recover after 23 years. After the pandemic crisis began, the market recovered 3-4 months only to its previous ATH. Remember how much panic there was in the market? It is your choice to take advantage of such opportunities or to panic. After the abandonment of the gold standard, the dollar lost its peg to gold reserves and the new financial system let the opportunity to print fresh money to loan to creditors. There are many pros and cons, but that the U.S. remains the world's economic leader by a wide margin is a fact. It also led to the 2000-2001 .com bubble and the 2008-2009 real estate crisis. But 12 years later, the S&P500 is already up 3x. 🚩Fundamental analysis: 1️⃣ the growing inflation is bad for the the stock market growth. Rising price of the oil, gas and food (wheat, corn, sunflower, soybeans etc.) starts hiking inflation rate. But USA will start to accept Venezuela oil after the several years ban. For your understanding, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world so it will allow to keep the oil price at the previous levels. 2️⃣ The unemployment rate is 3.6%, which is a pre-crisis level! This is an indicator, which shows that the economy is in good condition. 3️⃣ Investment outflows from the EU in February alone amounted to $15 billion! This is the largest outflow in a decade. Investors are looking for safety, so all that money has been flowing into the U.S. stock market for three months. 🚩Technical analysis (TA): 1️⃣ The first value zone is $380 to $400. Such value zones are always a huge support for the price. 2️⃣ The key $400 level. Even though the price broke it down, the whales collected a lot of liquidity to open long positions. Of course, there were a lot of stop-losses of retail traders here, most of the margin positions liquidated. 3️⃣ Volumes we haven't seen in over two years. As you know, there are two sides in trading: those who buy and those who sell. If such volumes appeared, someone has accumulated a huge position for the first time since 2020. During the first volume growth, those who bought at market ATH were liquidated, and during the second volume growth, those who bought back from the first fall were liquidated also. Fundamental and technical analysis says the market should be rising. Even despite the reports about a new pandemic (🙈 pox) the world has adapted and is ready for new challenges. ✅Why is it so important for us that the stock market grows? As we have seen over the past few years, Bitcoin has not yet become a reserve asset and often copies the movements of the U.S. stock market. While the stock market is still growing, the cryptocurrency market is growing as well. 📊The cryptocurrency market. The indicator of the cryptocurrency market is Bitcoin. The price of 99% of all altcoins depends on BTC cycles. As you can see from the Bitcoin chart, it has been in a rising cycle for over 10 years. How to understand it? It makes higher highs and lows, which is a very positive signal. 🏁Will Bitcoin fall to $20,000 or has it already started it`s rise to $100,000? It doesn't matter in the long term. As long as the crypto industry grows and Bitcoin makes HH and HL, growth will continue. Learn how to trade now, use the ideas I post, ask the questions in the comments! 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
SP:SPX
by Yuriy_Bishko
13
Nasdaq Plunge coming soon 5 Months of the ATH before the market crash, Nasdaq managed to find support around 24% down. When this support was broken, Nasdaq crashed by another 30%. 2008/09 housing market crises caused a world wide recession. Are we seeing similar situation in 2022? The technical analysis would suggest it is very possible. Not to mention the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, inflation as well as a possible food shortage. Have a look and please share your comments.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by claude2503