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Economy

The USD is showing strenghtThe US Dollar is showing strenght, being over the 210, 70, and 14 MAs, with a strong and bullish RSI (64+ weekly, 61+ daily) and an important cross over in the weekly MACD (210, 70, 14). In terms of chartism, we are ending a bearish trend channel that could be a fake break out, so we will not necesarily find short-term bullish positions. We could find bullish positions in leveraged ETFs over the USD Index, but for now I will just take into account the bullish trend of the most important global asset and how could this affect commodities, equities, bonds, and the global economy.
INDEX:DXYLong
by blockmas
The Anatomy of a Bear MarketRecently, a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of a multi-year recession. I don't think that is a clear depiction of the current situation, but I am aware that the idea stems from a lack of understanding of bear market structures, and influence of market sentiment. So in this post, I'll be going over Ken Fishers' rules and conditions that must be met in order for a market to be clarified as a bear market, and how you can best position yourself to minimize downside risk. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. The Four Rules of a Bear Market - The first rule is the two percent rule: a bear market typically declines by about 2% per month. - Sometimes it declines by more than 2%, sometimes it’s less—but overall and on average, bear markets don’t often begin with the sharp, sudden drop some anticipate. - If a bear does drop by more than 2% per month, there’s often a market counter-rally that can provide better opportunities for investors to sell. - The three month rule: This rule advocates waiting three months after you suspect a peak has happened before calling a bear market. - Rather than trying to guess when a market top might come, this rule ensures one has passed before taking defensive investment action. - It provides a window of time to assess fundamental investment data, market action and possible bear market drivers. - I often see lots of people call market tops and bottoms, and time the market perfectly, but it needs to be clearly understood that this isn't the right approach to understanding the market. - Next, we have the the two-thirds / one-third rule. - About one-third of the stock market’s decline occurs in the first two-thirds of a bear’s duration, and about two-thirds of the decline occurs in the final one-third. - This was the case in the bear market caused by the financial crisis, as well as many other bear markets including that of 1973. - Combining this with the three month rule, it also implies that if you have identified that a market has indeed begun its bear run, you might be better off taking profits/losses on your position, managing risk by increasing your cash holdings, and buying back when capitulation has happened. - And finally, we have the 18-month rule. - While bull market durations vary considerably, statistics demonstrate that the average bear market duration, since 1946, has only been 16 months. - Very few in modern history last fully two years or longer. - If you’re engaging a defensive investment strategy, you probably shouldn’t bet on one lasting so long. - The longer a bear market runs, the more likely you’re waiting too long to re-invest. - If you remain bearish for longer than 18 months, you may miss out on the rocket-like market ride that is almost always the beginning of the next bull run. - Missing that can be very costly for investors. So are we currently in a bear market? - Based on the four rules above, there's a high probability that we are not in a bear market. - Since I've uploaded this post, the market has bounced swiftly off the 100 moving average on the weekly. - Just as the covid-induced drop of March 2020 turned out to be a 'buy the dip' opportunity, as opposed to the beginning of a bear market, the sharp correction we have seen since the beginning of this year goes against the first rule of the bear market. - It’s critical not to call a bear market falsely, and this is a huge mistake that a lot of people make. - If the market is just going through a correction (a short, sentiment-driven downturn of -10% to -20%), you’re better off riding through it and maintaining your portfolio. - It is impossible to accurately and consistently time market corrections because of the way they behave. - A correction can start for any reason or no reason. So if you believe that the economy is strong, and the fundamentals of the company you invest in remain solid, there's no need to sell off your holdings, especially when your actions are motivated by fear. Conclusion Bull market corrections are not fun, but it's important as an investor for you to be able to distinguish bear markets/recessions from bull market corrections. Choosing to undertake a bear market investment strategy and go defensive should be rare and shouldn’t be done by gut feel or by your neighbor’s opinion. Exiting the market is among the biggest investment risks you can take—if you’re wrong and you have a need for portfolio growth, missing bull market returns can be extremely costly. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
TVC:SPXEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
53
TRON Grand Hackathon 2022 WINNERSTRON Grand Hackathon 2022 announced the winners of its Season 1 event. The panel of judges, which consists of eminent industry leaders, said they were pleased with the projects they received this season. They already await Season 2, where registration will begin on May 16, 2022. Running from March 8 to March 11, Season 1 amassed over 120 submissions, all vying for the aggregate prize money of $500M spread between four tracks, Web 3.0, NFT, GameFi, and DeFi. Season 1 Winners In the GameFi Track, the winner is TronNinja Arcade by the TronNinja Team. TronNinja is an NFT GameFi project on the TRON blockchain where users will be able to use their NFTs as characters in-game while earning in-game tokens. Their goal is to bring back the social aspect that arcades had. In the Web3 track, the winner is dCloud by Cctechmx. Their mission is to create an Open Source Web3 Cloud storage mobile app enabling its own ecosystem to enjoy a self-sustainable and shared economy.
KRAKEN:TRXUSDLong
by spidgoastanid
US Dollar Falls after Hawkish Fed AnnouncemeToday's forex news: US Dollar Falls after Hawkish Fed Announcement EUR/USD ⬆️ GBP/USD ⬆️ AUD/USD ⬆️ USD/CAD ⬇️ USD/JPY ⬆️ XAU ⬆️ WTI ⬇️ On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 2.5%, also preparing further measures to contain inflation. However, the hawkish attitude was not thorough enough to strengthen the dollar against most major currencies, with EUR/USD closing at 1.1032 and GBP/USD at 1.3145. Meanwhile, investors await the Bank of England’s Interest Rate Decision – which will be announced later today (17 March). The AUD/USD pair saw a rise with the closing price at 0.7289, thanks to a positive job report indicating lower-than-expected unemployment rate at 4%, and an increase in gold prices at a closing price of 1,909.2, which is another response to the restrictive US monetary policy. US dollar struck a six-year high at 119.12 against Japanese Yen, as the east Asian country experienced a 7.3 magnitude earthquake yesterday (16 March), investors look to a safe haven currency until the earthquake’s aftermath is settled. Crude Oil, on the other hand, has settled lower at $95.04 per barrel. Since the US has increased its oil inventory, combined with optimism for other oil-producing OPEC members to increase supply, and China’s COVID outbreak slowing global consumption. Major U.S. stock indexes have surprisingly rallied despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase borrowing costs. United States 10-Year Bond Yield stabilized its rise, closing at 2.187%. 📱 Get instant market news delivered to you in real time on Mitrade
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
EUR/USD!Euro is weakening! What's NEXT?EUR/USD. The Euro began to fall against the Dollar due to Russia's attack on Ukraine. Conflict in Europe is a high risk and unpredictability of investment in the European economy leads to capital outflow to safer markets. The outflow of capital from the EU goes to the U.S. market, which causes Euro to fall against the Dollar. The price is now at 1.10 level and it is very close to the lows of 2016 when the price fell to a record low of 1.03. If the key level of 1.06 will be broken, a false breakout of this level is very possible, as it shown on the chart. Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU. P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy. Always make your analysis before a trade.
by Yuriy_Bishko
5
EUR/USD - false breakout of key levels!In the face of sanctions the supply chain in Europe suffers, which leads to a decrease in the economy of the whole EU. EUR starts to fall against USD, as the EU economy takes a bigger hit than the U.S. economy. The price is now testing the global trend line and big trading range. If this trend line cannot resist the sellers' pressure, it will test the key level at $1.06. If there will no strong support, the next key level is $1.03. False breakout is possible in both cases, so watch for updates on the channel, where we will give all the relevant update. Friends, press the "like" button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU! P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
by Alex_Dehtiarov
A Little RantWhere to begin? In my history of learning, reading, trading, analyzing, I have never seen a market more manipulated and completely disconnected not only from the economy, but reality. We have come to a time in our society where economic data no longer has ANY impact on equities. We witness the week of Feb 7th till today, Feb 16th a release of horrible economic news. Let's go through it shall we? Worse Than Expected CPI Far Worse Than Expected Consumer Sentiment. Worse Than Expected PPI Q1 GDP Estimates Now 0.1% or Contraction 7 in 10 Americans Live Paycheck to Paycheck Home Builder Confidence Falls Personal Credit/Debt New Records What we are witnessing is the QE going to corporations through corporate bond buying, in turn we saw the greatest massing of corporate buy backs thus pushing stocks higher and higher. Most companies are trading well over 20x earnings. It's a bubble of idiocy and greed. The issue is simple, scary, and unavoidable at this point. All of this printing has caused probably the worst inflation in US history. The money printer's solution is raising rates, tapering, and shrinking balance sheet, which will prick this equities bubble. The response to a bear market will be.... guess what? More QE, slashing rates but this time, it'll be game over. The USD will have finally met its end as it's de-pegged as the world reserve currency. It won't matter because as the US is facing its currency crisis, other nations will face their own fiat crisis. Whatever way you cut it, whatever action they take, there will be hurt and at least a recession plus stock market collapse like we've never seen.
TVC:DJIShort
by WorldEconomics
14