Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has surpassed our Mean Resistance of 61700 and completed Interim Coin Rally 62200, finishing extended Interim Coin Rally 64900. Presently, the coin is positioned for further upward movement with a primary target of 68500 and a retest of our completed Main Inner Coin Rally 73200. The selling pressure at this level may cause the coin's price to decline toward the Mean Support level of 56600, possibly extending to the Mean Support level of 60300.
Economy
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index demonstrated significant resiliency during this week's trading session, surpassing the Inner Interim Index Rally 5443 target. Following a springy rebound, the current market price action is positioned below the newly established significant Mean Res 5564. Anticipated interim downward pressure toward the Mean Support at 5445 is probable before the index resumes its upward trajectory. The prevailing price action indicates a sustained uptrend towards the Inner Interim Index Rally at 5666, with the achieved targets expected to exert considerable downward pressure.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar exhibited consistent upward momentum throughout the current week's trading session. It successfully retested the Mean Resistance level of 1.099 and the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.100. The breakthrough of these thresholds led to the establishment of a new Mean Resistance at 1.104. A breach of this pivotal level may incite rapid upward movement, targeting the Key Res 1.111 and culminating in the completion of the Inner Currency Rally at 1.112. Conversely, the prevailing downward analysis projects a sustained descent toward a critical Mean Support level of 1.097.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading, Bitcoin underwent a retest of our Mean Resistance level of 61700 and, subsequently, the Mean Support level of 57400, marking the completion of the Interim Coin Rally at 62600. The presence of intermediary selling pressure may lead to a decline in the coin's price action toward the Mean Support level of 56600, 54000 and potentially result in a retesting of the completed Interim Coin Dip at 50000. On the positive side, the overall trend remains optimistic, with a focus on retesting the completed Interim Coin Rally at 62600 and potential extensions to the Mean Resistance levels of 65500 and 68500, respectively.
Yield ChartThis chart tracks U.S. Treasury yields for 2-year (blue), 10-year (white), and 30-year (orange) bonds, along with the yield spread (green) between the 10-year and 2-year bonds. A positive spread suggests a normal yield curve and economic growth, while a negative spread (inversion) often signals a potential recession.
Why an emergency rate cut is badThe market has been desperately waiting for a FED rate cut for nearly a year now. We have not received one yet even with the recent flash crash in the market.
Despite calls for an emergency rate cut after the crash we didn't get one. Why not? Why is that a good thing?
The Fed does not cut rates out of the kindness of their hearts
They cut rates only they broke something and they are trying to fix it
The lack of emergency rate cut means the recent flash crash was more irrational panic, less based on actual facts
The economic data while concerning in areas still is nothing alarming to the point for the Fed to "break glass in case of emergency" rate cut button over
When the rate cut does come which is expected still in September, we should hope for 25bps rate cut, nothing more. Small rate cuts a bullish sign that we are still doing ok. Large rate cuts is the equivalent to oxygen masks falling from ceiling, brace for rough landing.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index displayed severe downward movement during the current week's trading session as we blasted through Key Sup 5238 and completed our long-time flagged target, Inner Index Dip 5131. The resilient rebound occurs, and the current market price action rests at Mean Res 5345. The likelihood of interim downward pressure toward the Mean Support at 5280 exists before the index resumes its upward trajectory. However, the prevailing price action suggests a sustained uptrend toward the Inner Interim Index Rally 5443, possibly extending to Mean Res 5525. However, these attained targets are likely to exert downward pressure.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar demonstrated consistent upward momentum during this week's trading session, reaching our Mean Resistance level of 1.094 and retesting the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.094. The substantial breakthrough of these targets resulted in establishing a new Mean Resistance at 1.099 and a complete Inner Currency Rally at 1.100. The prevailing analysis indicates a sustained downward trajectory toward a critical Mean Support level of 1.089. The breach of this significant target may prompt rapid downward movements, potentially extending to target the subsequent Mean Support level of 1.079.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin encountered a substantial decline during this week's trading session, reaching Mean Support 55800 and Key Support 53800, and subsequently retesting completed Outer Coin Dip 54000. The considerable selling pressure finalized Outer Coin Dip 51000 and major Key Support 50700. The overall upward trend remains ongoing, leading to the establishment of a new Mean Resistance 61700 and the completion of the Interim Coin Rally 62600. The potential extension towards Mean Resistance 65500 and 68500 holds significant promise for the forthcoming week's sessions. The likelihood of temporary downward pressure toward the Mean Support at 57400 exists before the coin resumes its upward trajectory.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index (Spooz) displayed notable volatility during the current week's trading session, departing from recent trends. As an analysis of the Weekly Chart for July 26 reveals the index reached the projected Mean Support level of 5402 before surging to the designated target, Mean Res 5567. Upon achieving this target, the Spooz dropped to our selected Inner Index Dip 5345 target like a bad habit. The prevailing price action suggests a sustained uptrend toward the Mean Res 5449 and a possible extension to the Mean Res 5525 in the upcoming week's trading sessions. It is worth noting that these attained targets are likely to exert downward pressure.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the most recent trading session, the Eurodollar displayed its ability to recover from the completed Inner Currency Dip of 1.082 and Mean Support levels of 1.081 and 1.078. The prevailing analysis indicates a sustained upward trajectory toward a Mean Support level and its associated completed Inner Currency Dip of 1.094. These critical targets may prompt swift downward movements toward a Mean Support of 1.083, potentially extending to target the subsequent Mean Support level of 1.078.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin experienced a significant drop from an attempt to complete the Inner Coin Rally of 70400. However, the Mean Resistance 68200 was the main barrier during this week's trading session. The overall trend suggests a recovery towards Mean Resistance 65300, with a possible extension to Mean Resistance 68200 and Inner Coin Rally 70400. There may be interim downward pressure toward the Mean Support at 55800 before the coin resumes its up movement.
TOLL Brothers #TOL new high vs US single family home priceHomemakers are making money over fist.
Does this confirm that the housing bull market will continue.
It seems like it doesn't it
This ratio highlights the housing bottom in the 90's
this Ratio also topped out in 2005 before the housing bubble popped
#Roaring20's
#Bitcoin & The business cycle are intertwined!In the bottom pane is the US Purchasing managers index number
a number below 50 ( and nearly all the time below 47) means a recession/ economic slowdown is looming.
But as you can see on the rebound , as the PMI number moves above 50 and back into a expanding economy
we have seen it coincide with the great bitcoin bull markets.
Let's hope this trend continues.
$GBINTRS - BoE's Snowball - The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose
at their recent monetary policy committee meeting.
The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point,
taking the official rate to 5% ;
double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists.
BoE hiking interest rates to 5% ,
it adds further strain to millions of homeowners across the country.
The Central Bank Rates was upped by 0.5% from 4.5% previously
and remains at it's Highest Level since 2008 Financial Crisis.
$USINTR - A Month of BreathThe Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR
unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more.
It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since September 2007.
Throughout Fed's announcement The Dollar Index TVC:DXY
plunged to what can be said Wave C completed from A-B-C
Elliot Waves Correction
(attached ideas)
Have the markets priced in Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY and Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR ?
TRADE SAFE
*** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading session of the current week, the Eurodollar sustained its decline by the Weekly Chart Analysis for the Week of July 19. The prevailing analysis indicates a continued downward trajectory toward a Mean Support of 1.081 and its corresponding Mean Support of 1.078. The anticipated downward movements will result in an initial interim rebound, potentially reaching a Mean Resistance of 1.089.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index, also known as Spooz, demonstrated a significant downward trend, as analysed in the Weekly Chart for July 19. It reached the anticipated Mean Support level at 5449 and Key Support at 5420. There is an expectation of a swift recovery after reaching these levels, propelling the price toward the designated Mean Resistance target at 5567. Nonetheless, the prevailing price action indicates a sustained primary decline toward the Key Sup 5350 and Inner Index Dip of 5345 in the forthcoming week/week's trading sessions. It is acknowledged that these achieved targets will exert pressure for a robust rebound.
A look at M2 Money Stock Out of curiosity I took a look M2 to see the trends over the years and how it compares to COVID and the last few years. I don't have any great revelations to share about what to do, but I thought the chart was interesting. I also did some research and used ChatGPT to help me create a summary about M2. Please note that I cannot guarantee the following text is perfectly accurate, I am not a financial expert or advisor, but it is an interesting overview. Enjoy.
1) Introduction:
Money Stock Measure 2, or M2, is a comprehensive measure of the money supply that includes various types of financial assets held by the public. It encompasses M1 — which consists of the most liquid forms of money like cash and checking deposits — and adds less liquid forms such as savings deposits, time deposits under $100,000, and retail money market mutual funds. This broader measure provides a more complete picture of the available money within an economy than M1 alone.
2) Why M2 Matters to the Economy and the Stock Market:
Monetary Policy Indicator: M2 growth rates can indicate the looseness or tightness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rapid growth in M2 may suggest a looser policy with potential implications for lower interest rates, while slower growth could indicate a tightening policy stance.
Economic Health Predictor: Fluctuations in M2 can signal upcoming changes in economic activity. An expanding M2 typically suggests that more money is flowing into the economy, potentially boosting consumer spending and overall economic growth. However, if this expansion leads to inflation without an accompanying increase in real output, it could be detrimental.
Interest Rate Influence: Since M2 impacts interest rates, it indirectly affects the stock market. Lower interest rates from an increased M2 can reduce borrowing costs and stimulate both capital expenditures and consumer spending, which generally supports higher stock prices.
Inflation Expectations: Inflation can erode the purchasing power of money. An inflating M2 can lead investors to adjust their expectations, impacting bond yields and stock valuations.
3) As an investor, monitoring M2 can enhance decision-making in several ways:
Growth Trends: Observing whether M2 is expanding or contracting can provide clues about future economic conditions and monetary policy directions, helping investors anticipate market movements.
Asset Allocation: During periods of M2 expansion (indicative of lower interest rates), investors might favor stocks, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary that benefit from increased consumer spending. Conversely, a slowdown in M2 growth could be a signal to move towards safer assets like short-term bonds, which are less sensitive to interest rate rises.
Sector Impacts: Different sectors react differently to changes in M2. For example, financials might benefit from higher interest rates, while sectors sensitive to consumer spending could gain from an expansionary M2 environment.
Inflation Hedge: Rapid increases in M2 that might lead to inflation suggest that investors should consider assets that typically perform well during inflationary periods, such as commodities or real estate.
Global Considerations: For those invested internationally, understanding how M2 changes affect global markets and capital flows is crucial, particularly in how developed economies' liquidity influences emerging markets.
4) Conclusion:
M2 is a critical economic indicator that offers valuable insights into future monetary policies, economic health, and market directions. It is not a perfect metric on its own, but by integrating M2 data into broader market analyses and considering its implications on different sectors and asset classes, investors can make more informed decisions, optimizing their portfolios to better navigate the complexities of financial markets.
Euro-Zone GDP Quarterly *3M (QoQ)ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ (+0.3 %)
Q1/2024
source: EUROSTAT
The Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022, to beat market expectations of a marginal 0.1% expansion and gain traction following muted readings since the fourth quarter of 2022.
The result added leeway for the European Central Bank to refrain from cutting rates to a larger extent this year should inflationary pressures prove to be more stubborn than previously expected.
Among the currency bloc’s largest economies, both the German and the French GDPs expanded by 0.2%, while that from Italy grew by 0.3% and that from Spain expanded by 0.7%, all above market estimates.
Compared to the same quarter of the previous year ECONOMICS:EUGDPYY ,
the Eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4%, beating market expectations of 0.2%, and gaining traction after two straight quarters of 0.1% growth.
UPS looking DOWNSNice head and Shoulders on the United Parcel Service
#UPS and FEDEX are the new dow transport indicator.
An underlying determinant of how the consumer is faring
Since the US is a consumer economy and Online shopping is the majority of retail
if we see new highs on the Indicies, and the home delivery carriers continue to deteriorate
it would give your non confirmation Top
Similar to Dow theory of new High's in the Industrials , but the transports lagging and indeed falling.