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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For January 14, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin price only just managed to hold on to the significant support of Outer Coin Dip $40,000, and Key Sup $40,700 - With the price moving up to $43,900, and for now, it is holding about $43,000 level. The current course designates an up move to the Outer Coin Rally $46,350 and most likely Mean Res $47,700 and the near future $50,950 - thereby pending potential retest of the Mean Sup $41,500.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
2
Psychology of a Market Cycle Applied (CARDANO's representation)Above is a comparison of the Psychology of the market cycle from Wall St. Cheat Sheet (originally developed and posted by Satoshi Nakamoto, the cryptic father of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and, arguably, deserves the title of 'Father of Cryptocurrency ADA's current price action/movement. Currently, I see two possibilities: 1) We are in the end of the DISBELIEF phase, where a slight pull back occurs before the optimism/belief/thrill stages appear. 2) We may be experiencing the depression dip before building up to the "Hope" phase were a small pull back occurs before a big breakout. Given the effects of the tumultuous socio-economic environment created by COVID along with the unprecedented flooding of the Alt/DeFi/NFT market (ranging from both revolutionary blockchain technologies to almost useless meme coins like Shib or the SQUID, named as reference to Squid Games show). It would be remiss of me not to further mention the major effects the global political environment has rendered. Issues range from China's crypto collapse (starting with mining and then finally fully banning the use of them) to Kazakhstan's power and internet outages . Together, these provide an answer to a concept that seems to escape even the most astute technical traders: Although the use of statistically oriented indicators proves effective in theory, the patterns and signals we know to be effective tools today will slowly change in the the way they provide signals for traders. If the picture was the "average," then the actual market provides the source of "standard deviations" we see in price action evolution, both within a single asset's historical rendering and between assets that move closely.
by PapaBear95
Gold (GLD) is set for a major breakout to the upside!In this article I will explain why we at Dow Experts Finance have recently increased our exposure in our corporate investment portfolio to Gold by buying into the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) trust, what our economic projections are for 2022 and why we believe that investors need to be highly cautious in the coming months. The last more than a decade has been defined by a generally loose monetary and fiscal policy with artificially low interest rates, Quantitative Easing (QE), falling bond yields and consistently rising stock prices. We discussed all of these components, their inter-correlation and dependence in our detailed macro analysis published back on June 29th, 2021, where we accurately predicted the strong appreciation of the USD in the 2nd half of 2021, despite the fact that the broad consensus in the market at the time was for a weaker US dollar throughout 2021. You're welcome. Now, it’s time for us to share with you our analysis and thoughts on where we see the global economy, interest rates, inflation, bonds yields and of course stock prices heading in 2022. We believe that having the right macro economic framework and understanding of how leading economic forces and indicators affect the demand for money as well as goods and services globally is essential for being successful as an investor in these highly complex times. Being able to recognize major trends, correlations and structural changes allows you to efficiently optimize and re-balance your investment portfolio in a way that will ultimately help you to stay one step ahead of the market. Today's analysis will focus exclusively on Gold, as we will be releasing our full macro investing outlook for this year in the coming weeks and we don't want to overlap too many things between the two articles. At any rate, our full macro investing outlook paper will present you with a much deeper dive, showing you where we see the best trading and investing opportunities in 2022 and beyond. The Technical Set-Up Apart from the great cup and handle technical formation on the monthly chart, which is a strong BULLISH continuation pattern, GLD is also expected to receive a meaningful boost from a weakening US DOLLAR and the elevated levels of inflation that we expect to see in the US moving forward. The Cup & Handle technical pattern currently in play has been forming since the lows at around $40/oz set all the way back in 2005. As you can see on the chart below the price action has been characterized by a sharp price rise in Stage 1; a corrective phase with the formation of a broad base, Stage 2; another strong rally (Stage 3) taking the price back to the highs reached in Stage 1; a minor profit taking correction (Stage 4). This is a textbook set up for a meaningful multi-year rally for Gold, especially considering the fact that it is on the monthly chart. The new mandate of the Fed The Federal Reserve has shifted its growth mandate to a price mandate at the end of 2021, which means that achieving price stability and lower inflation readings is now a more important goal than chasing growth and pushing equity markets higher with artificially low interest rates and generally loose monetary policy conditions. So, what does that mean? It means that in the event of a sharp correction in the US equity markets caused by the expected strong tightening in monetary policy conditions, the Fed will be less likely to jump in to the rescue of equities by lowering the benchmark interest rates and resuming its QE program (as it did back in March of 2020). Reason being, such actions would simply throw gasoline in the inflation fires in the economy. The current environment - We have highly inflated US equity markets sitting at all-time highs; - A weakening US Dollar with a descending triangle formation on the monthly chart with 4 rate hikes already priced in for 2022, thus leaving it a very limited fundamentally supported upside from here. In case the Fed is unable to complete all 4 interest rate hikes in 2022 and/or interest rate expectations start shifting for whatever reason, the US dollar will experience a major sell-off. - A high inflation up until now mainly driven by supply-chain bottlenecks, which is expected to stay relatively high in the foreseeable future. - The weakening US Dollar will further increase the inflation in the US economy for the following reasons: Import prices will rise causing a degree of imported inflation The rise in aggregate demand from cheaper exports The fall in the value of the dollar may reduce the incentives for firms to cut costs because they get an ‘easy’ improvement in competitiveness. Therefore, a fall in the dollar may harm long-term competitiveness. - A hawkish Federal Reserve with a price mandate instead of a growth mandate - Unfavorable demographic trend with the highest ever number of people expected to leave the workforce in 2022 (baby boomers retiring). Conclusion We believe that the Federal Reserve is already way behind the curve with its tapering and tightening efforts as it is still technically injecting liquidity into the market with over $60 billion worth of assets bought this month alone. Moving forward, after concluding its tapering process in March, 2022 the Fed will make an attempt to catch up with the running inflation, but will still be somewhat limited in terms of the actual pace of policy tightening as they would not want to sent the economy into a deep and prolonged recession. Furthermore, with the excessive amounts of credit injected into the system over the last few years, the Fed is well aware that if asset prices collapse dramatically, that would mean that the collateral of these record levels of public and private debt will go down, reducing personal wealth and making it much more difficult for borrowers to service their loans. In addition to that, if inflation stays relatively elevated for prolonged periods of time that will also eat away from the purchasing power of consumers, thus making their wages and earnings less valuable. So we might be heading towards an economic environment where, asset prices come down as a result of tightening of monetary policy conditions, rates go up but fail to completely subdue the raging inflation as they are simply starting from a very low level (0.25%) and will take the Fed a long time in order to get them back above 2% or higher. This would then lead to a further erosion in the purchasing power of the end consumer, thus lowering the Aggregate Demand in the US economy and lowering the Real GDP moving forward. On the other hand, the current demographic mix and the millions of people expected to leave the workforce this year, together with the continuous technological innovation present in the economy are both going to exercise their respective deflationary pressures moving forward. We hope that these developments could also help the Fed in the fight against inflation putting somewhat of a natural lid to how high inflation could rise in the long run. We believe that the economy would eventually self-correct and stabilize in the long run, but we will definitely have to go through a period of economic contraction in order for that to happen. Gold is widely considered as a safe-haven asset, which tends to outperform in times of uncertainty, volatility and lower GDP growth, thus making it an attractive asset for 2022 and beyond! Follow & Copy us @DowExperts on eToro for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance!
AMEX:GLDLong
by DowExperts
The Next Leg DownWelp, I'm calling it. I believe the next leg of this market sell off is coming. I'm sure all of you saw the Asset Bubble Chart.. I just can't believe we will be a part of something like this. I believe the short term bear market rally has about come to its end and we are heading towards another sell off. There is absolutely no news that can prop up markets at this point. The numbers are starting to come in globally, and PMI, GDP world wide is utterly collapsed. Oil while it had a short move upward is still at prices that producers can not maintain. You will see an influx of bankruptcies of oil producers and shale companies. In fact, it already started. World wide, it's no better. Keep in mind that, during America's boom since 2016, most of Europe was in recession. Now imagine how bad the EuroZone is as they entered this crisis already in recession. So, what's my opinion? I believe the EuroZone will collapse first. There is new infighting between the EU and Germany on the ECB's Bond Buying Program. This is potentially catastrophic as the EBC has no stopped their bond buying program since 2010 and they already have their interest rates at -0.45%! Europe has nothing left in their arsenal besides massive printing and stimulus, which will be short lived. After Europe collapses, Japan will be the next country to be hit. Japan has been had some of the worst economics and demographics of any country. They have been printing like never before and their entire country is heading into a depression. Couple this with weaker sales of electronics and vehicles, Japan is going to hit a wall here soon. The Bank of Japan can not save what was done. Lastly, the United States will have its day of reckoning. After decades of unbalanced budgets, printing infinitely, political uncertainty and a general instablity, the US will have a recession that never was before. The Great Recession of 2008 shattered the floor.. and since them they put glue in all the cracks, it held but they added more weight than ever. Every kind of debt is at record levels. The US Federal Tax Revenue is dropping $100,000 even 9 seconds and the US Debt is growing $100,000 every 4 seconds. The last time this Tax Revenue fell was 2008, during the recession. It's over folks. I don't mean to sound like an alarmist but you call a spade a spade when you see it. I believe this is the catalyst to the end of fiat world wide. Besides, historically, about even 30-50 years the world has been on a new global monetary standard since 1900s. The last monetary standard was in 1970s when Nixon killed the Bretton Woods system. So, what'll happen from here? The central banks will do what they always do in a crisis and the printers will be put on max output. Currency will be created like never before. I believe in the next 1-3 years, we will see hyper inflation in the US. Keep in mind, the One-Dollar Zimbabwe was worth $1.40ish USD in 2007. In 2008, we had the infamous 100,000,000,000,000 trillion Zimbabwe notes. Yes, it took just ONE year for hyper inflation to hit. What can I say? Hedge in silver and gold , a little in BTC because at this point who knows what will survive this crash. Dow will fall easily below 10,000.. and we will see the greatest number of unemployed people ever. This virus did a whole lot more damage underneath than we thought. There will NOT be a U-Shaped recovery. Fear has set in, people do not want to return to work and the once insane thought of basic income is now becoming reality. This isn't a chart on how to profit from this down turn, its just a cold reality check. I believe man has held it together for as long as they did but we see, people are no longer patient or caring. People are quicker to jump to conflict than peace. I believe society will also collapse and the once sane moral minded man will descend into violence, rioting, and looting. It sounds far fetched but, man will be man doesn't matter what year it is. static.seekingalpha.com
TVC:DJI
by WorldEconomics
10
COVID: WINNING OR LOSING THE WAR?The chart shows cumulative cases in USA, GB and Germany. Some don't like cumulative data. Case rates per day seem to matter more. But in terms of understanding whether the war on COVID is being won, I say cumulative data is where the focus needs to be. Why? Case rates per day or per week are the 'noise'. That rate will pick up fluctuations. Some people may get excited if there is a fall in rates over a few weeks. But short term rates do not give the big picture. Cumulative figures over along period tell a different story. How they are interpreted is important. The actual figure at any one point is not that important. It is the shape of the curve that matters more. How? If a virus is dying out, one can expect there would be very little accumulation. We should see a clear flattening or perhaps only a very gentle rise. If the virus died completely, the curve would flatten and remain flat because accumulation would be zero. Of the big three GB (green) and USA(amber) have been taking on a sharper rise. It appears that the accumulation began around 1st December 2021 and that was realised near 25th December. Obviously, Omicron was a new phase - piling on the accumulation. Whilst the Omicron variant appears to have a lower case fatality rate than previous versions, what we're seeing in other data is how disruptive it is of health, other essential services, and transportation services. Evolutionary theory will say that an organism mutates in the direction of an advantage that maximises its survival. Omicron has achieved that. It was not surprising. It's not in COVID's survival strategy, to become more 'killing' - simply because it needs more of its host to spread itself. What we don't need is a stronger big brother of Omicron. Omicron (and Delta) are more serious risks to economies than death rates from infection.
C
by Captain_Walker
Inevitable US30 Short - Set Targets!Happy New Year!! New chart for the Risktakers... Surprise, it's not crypto!! The DOW Jones has to fall eventually & that may be *very* soon! U.S. Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Tuesday (a tell for tons of volatility), and now that employment figures are looking better (at least for now),The Fed will next complete the second task of its dual mandate -- Maintaining stable inflation rates. Interest rates have been historically and artificially low for 2 years now. When those rates hike up: - US30 - Short - Dollar (DXY) - Long - BTC/USD - Short - XAU/USD - Short - XAG/USD - Short The pop is inevitable. $tay Risky!
UShort
by risktrader95
Pfizer (PFE) to continue its BULL run in 2022!Fundamental Analysis Pfizer, Inc. has consistently been one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world for the better part of the last two decades. The company has a remarkable history going back all the way to the year 1849, when Pfizer was founded in Brooklyn, New York. The large cap pharma giant has developed a well-balanced and deep portfolio of products in key areas like Inflammation and Immunology, Internal Medicine, Oncology, Rare Disease, Vaccines etc. However, it seems that as a result of the success of Pfizer's vaccine COVID-19 treatments, many investors have forgotten about the rest of Pfizer's business and how successful it continues to be. It is true that the sales of its COVID-19 vaccine ($36 billion in 2021 alone) have managed to nearly double Pfizer's annual revenue from $41.9 billion in 2020 to over $78 billion in 2021. What's even more important is that the strong sales growth has also translated into higher profits for the company as its profit margins before interest and taxes, referred to as EBIT margin, have risen over the past year. This shows that Pfizer has managed its R&D and all other fixed and operating costs associated with development, production and distribution efficiently, thus improving the profitability ratios of the company. The large cap pharma giant has also managed to almost triple the size of its free cash flow to more than $29 billion over the past twelve months compared to only $11.6 billion in 2020. More free cash flow makes a business more robust, giving Pfizer more money to invest in research and development of new products, pay more in dividends, or strengthen its balance sheet. The company currently has a total of 94 drugs in the pipeline spread across critical treatment areas like Inflammation and Immunology, Internal Medicine, Oncology, Rare Disease, Vaccines etc. all waiting regulatory approval. - Phase 1(27); Phase 2 (29); Phase 3 (29); Registration (9) Looking at the outstanding track record of Pfizer's drug development capabilities, we can easily state that the company will continue to be a leader in the sector that it operates in. Macro view The equity markets in the US are currently undergoing a process of meaningful repricing and re-valuation of what companies are actually worth, as everyone is getting ready for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates in the US and tighten its monetary policy. In a rising interest rate environment, investors tend to move away from expensive high-growth stocks trading at unreasonably high P/E and P/S valuations as the tighter monetary policy environment makes it much more difficult and more expensive for such companies to borrow and invest capital and produce the high earnings growth that investors expect from them. Well-established large cap Healthcare and Biotech stocks are considered to be least correlated with the monetary policy situation in the country as they tend to trade more on FDA drug approvals and drug-related announcements rather than actual earnings per share. Most of the leaders in this space also have a substantial pricing power, as people using their medicines are doing so because they need them and because the drugs are helping them get better. Thus, owning Healthcare and Biotech stocks in a rising inflation and interest rate environment is a defensive play that could end up paying off big time, as stocks in these sectors are rather volatile. Technical Analysis The stock has experienced a volatile retracement from its $61 all-time highs and is currently in a corrective phase. However, the uptrend is still intact as the price is well above both the strong horizontal support at $51 and the upward sloping diagonal support (blue line) at $44. Furthermore, the stock is trading above its 5, 20, 50, 200 EMAs, which is also a bullish continuation signal. We expect buyers to start coming in around the $52-53 level, thus establishing the next higher high. Once that is done, the stock will re-test its ATH at around $61 in Q1 of this year. The broad market framework, together with the many positive company related developments in the coming months are expected to bring enough momentum to the stock in order for it to break its previous ATH and set a new one sometime in Q2. Our target for the stock in H1 of 2022 is around the $68 level, which is roughly 30% higher from the current levels. Follow and Copy us on eToro for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance. [ b] Sincerely, @DowExperts
NYSE:PFELong
by DowExperts
WTICOUSD - Oil Price Analysis and 2022 ForecastOil coming into a key area at the bottom of an 18-month structure. Typically I would wait for this to fully correct (below the 18-month structure) and then make a decision on how to trade it. But I think the most glaring thing about oil, is the fact that the all time high was set in July 2008. Lots more money out there these days; lot more drivers too. Economy is showing signs of inflation everywhere. I think it is a mistake to think this thing cannot ring the ATHs as early as Summer 2020. For now we watch and wait to see how it behaves in what has been a somewhat persistent range. From a trading / exposure perspective - I have been long in oil since September of this year. We will continue to track oil closely. God Bless
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by ChiefMacro
1
NDX - Where Are We?The Nasdaq hovering over a 11-12 year structure (orange channel dating back to '09), in what to me looks like a newly formed post-covid-MMT range. In a world with excessive deficits & low interest rates, it's kind of difficult to see this thing returning to that 11-year range; suffice it to say, as long as people are working (and as more people participate in work - say globally), we will continue to see money flow into the retirement / savings bubble. As far as an overall read, I think we will test the all-time-highs and potentially encounter some kind of sideways correction before pressing higher (i'll continue to cover that and elaborate that as it develops). I also would not be surprised if this thing breaks out of the blue structure; however - that would actually worry me and I would then start looking for the short. On a related note, I am on the record as stating, I think crypto currency will fail to keep up with stocks from an overall performance perspective. Well, actually I think cryptos will crash in 2022 as more emerge and tax policy continues to evolve in a post-covid deficit MMT world. God bless. Happy hunting. Chief
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by ChiefMacro
USD/TRY soars to fresh record high | Approaches 17.00 markThe Turkish lira crashed to another record low on Friday and shot to the 16.85-90 region against its American counterpart during the first half of the European session. The strong move up over the past two days or so comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Thursday to raise the minimum wage by 50% starting next year. Erdogan also said that the government would abolish income and stamp tax on the minimum wage. This was followed by a 100 bps rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday. Turkey's official inflation rate topped 21% in November – more than four times the target set by CBRT. The central bank, however, has not been given a free hand, instead is forced to adopt President's belief that high-interest rates cause inflation and delivered the fifth cut since September. With the latest leg down, the lira has lost over 50% of its value against the USD year to date. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sharp spike since the early European session could further be attributed to some technical factors on a sustained break through the 16.00 mark. That said, extremely overstretched technical indicators could hold back traders from placing fresh bets and cap the USD/TRY near the 17.00 round figure, at least for the time being. - USD/TRY blows past another record high, surges to the 17.00 neighbourhood on Friday. - The recent CBRT rate cuts, soaring inflation continues to weigh heavily on Turkish lira The Turkish lira has gotten more worthless in the past few months. The currency has depreciated by about 100% this year alone as investors reflect on the irrational policies implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Ideally, central banks tend to tighten monetary conditions when inflation is rising. By so doing, they limit the amount of cash in circulation and pressure prices to decline. The CBRT has gone against this after it slashed interest rates three times this year. The bank’s governor has ignorantly claimed that low-interest rates will likely bring inflation down. Recent data showed that inflation rose by 21% although an independent report placed the figure at 58%. The USD/TRY will react to the latest CBRT decision. Analysts expect that the bank will slash interest rates by 100 basis points in this meeting. This means that there is a strong divergence between the CBRT and the Fed. In its meeting this week, the Fed hinted that it will hike interest rates three times and end QE in March. The daily chart shows that the USD/TRY pair has been in a strong bullish trend with no end in sight for the Turkish lira crash. As a result, the pair remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the overbought level. While the outlook for the pair is bullish, there is a likelihood that it will have a pullback if the CBRT cuts rates as investors sell the news. This could see it retest the support at about 13. In the long-term, however, the overall trend is bullish. - SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 16.4000 - 17.0000 - Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR SELLERS AND GOVERNMENT MOVE FOR LOWERING PRICE DECISION. - Economy Bubble is created OR is close to !! It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
by AliSamadiTR
5
S&P Big Correction It seems like the market is ripe for a significant sell off. While mainstream news like CNBC and Bloomberg tell us that everything is rosy, the hard data spells otherwise. Just remember, these were the same people who laughed at economists like Peter Schiff in 2007 when they said a market collapse was coming. Truth of the matter is when anyone looks at the hard data, we see hurt coming soon. The biggest tale tale is as Goldman put it "51% Of All Market Gains Since April Are From Just 5 Stocks" Add to that inflation basically going out of control, retail sales dwindling, and creeping joblessness claims. Historically, higher interest rates was always negative for stocks. With the threat of tapering we will soon see the markets react. It's VIX season. Expect crypto to fall 30-50% once things start rolling.
SP:SPXShort
by WorldEconomics