S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For December 17, 2021 Technical Analysis and Outlook
The continuous downtrend is pending by obsoletion of Mean Sup 4615; If confirmed, the Spooz is on its way to Outer Index Dip 4555 with the incentive of hitting Key Sup 4510. So, with go-between buying hit and run (Rapid fire trading) opportunities, there are unseen sup/res developments - Stay tuned.
Economy
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For December 17, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook:
After three weeks of chopping and heading to our designated retest, the Euro Dollar found a foothold. Completed Inner Currency Dip and hitting hard the major Key Sup 1.1175. On the upside, the primary targets are Mean Res 1.1340, Mean Res 1.1370, and Outer Currency Rally 1.1410 outcome levels.
USD/TRY soars to fresh record high | Approaches 17.00 markThe Turkish lira crashed to another record low on Friday and shot to the 16.85-90 region against its American counterpart during the first half of the European session.
The strong move up over the past two days or so comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Thursday to raise the minimum wage by 50% starting next year. Erdogan also said that the government would abolish income and stamp tax on the minimum wage. This was followed by a 100 bps rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday.
Turkey's official inflation rate topped 21% in November – more than four times the target set by CBRT. The central bank, however, has not been given a free hand, instead is forced to adopt President's belief that high-interest rates cause inflation and delivered the fifth cut since September. With the latest leg down, the lira has lost over 50% of its value against the USD year to date.
Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sharp spike since the early European session could further be attributed to some technical factors on a sustained break through the 16.00 mark. That said, extremely overstretched technical indicators could hold back traders from placing fresh bets and cap the USD/TRY near the 17.00 round figure, at least for the time being.
- USD/TRY blows past another record high, surges to the 17.00 neighbourhood on Friday.
- The recent CBRT rate cuts, soaring inflation continues to weigh heavily on Turkish lira
The Turkish lira has gotten more worthless in the past few months. The currency has depreciated by about 100% this year alone as investors reflect on the irrational policies implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).
Ideally, central banks tend to tighten monetary conditions when inflation is rising. By so doing, they limit the amount of cash in circulation and pressure prices to decline.
The CBRT has gone against this after it slashed interest rates three times this year. The bank’s governor has ignorantly claimed that low-interest rates will likely bring inflation down. Recent data showed that inflation rose by 21% although an independent report placed the figure at 58%.
The USD/TRY will react to the latest CBRT decision. Analysts expect that the bank will slash interest rates by 100 basis points in this meeting. This means that there is a strong divergence between the CBRT and the Fed. In its meeting this week, the Fed hinted that it will hike interest rates three times and end QE in March.
The daily chart shows that the USD/TRY pair has been in a strong bullish trend with no end in sight for the Turkish lira crash. As a result, the pair remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the overbought level.
While the outlook for the pair is bullish, there is a likelihood that it will have a pullback if the CBRT cuts rates as investors sell the news. This could see it retest the support at about 13. In the long-term, however, the overall trend is bullish.
- SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 16.4000 - 17.0000
- Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR SELLERS AND GOVERNMENT MOVE FOR LOWERING PRICE DECISION.
- Economy Bubble is created OR is close to !!
It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
S&P Big Correction It seems like the market is ripe for a significant sell off. While mainstream news like CNBC and Bloomberg tell us that everything is rosy, the hard data spells otherwise. Just remember, these were the same people who laughed at economists like Peter Schiff in 2007 when they said a market collapse was coming. Truth of the matter is when anyone looks at the hard data, we see hurt coming soon. The biggest tale tale is as Goldman put it "51% Of All Market Gains Since April Are From Just 5 Stocks"
Add to that inflation basically going out of control, retail sales dwindling, and creeping joblessness claims. Historically, higher interest rates was always negative for stocks. With the threat of tapering we will soon see the markets react.
It's VIX season.
Expect crypto to fall 30-50% once things start rolling.
The TOP of the S&P500 (SPY)!Hey friends,
Just calling the TOP of the SPY. It made four attempts to break through the ~470 range with no luck.
With high inflation, EVERGRANDE and Omicron being potential straws that break the camels (economy's) back, I seriously believe the market is completely overvalued which will result in the next recession.
Time to be patient. Hold your cash ready.
Love, peace, Seb.
USD/TRY Bulls keep eyes on 14.00 - 15.80 | But when ? USD/TRY yesterday remains range-bound near $12.40 heading into Monday’s European session.
The Turkish lira (TRY) pair snapped a two-day downtrend the previous day while staying past a weekly ascending support line.
Given the MACD line teasing bullish cross, as the quote remains above the short-term rising support line, USD/TRY buyers are likely to aim for the one-week-old horizontal resistance near $12.70.
Following that, the $13.00 threshold may offer an intermediate halt during the run-up to the recently flashed record top of $13.49.
Meanwhile, a downside break of the aforementioned support line near $12.30 will aim for a 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of the November 18-23 rally, around $12.00.
During the USD/TRY weakness below the $12.00 threshold, the previous resistance line from November 23 and 61.8% Fibo., respectively around $11.80 and $11.60, will challenge the bears before October’s peak of $9.85.
USD/TRY today advances for the third session in a row at the beginning of the week and trades at shouting distance from last week’s all-time highs past 13.0000 the figure ((November 24).
The lira depreciates further on Monday in response to earlier comments by President Erdogan, who once again reiterated its firm opposition to interest rate hikes and sustained his (particular) view that interest rates generate inflation. Erdogan suggested that inflation could grind lower before the election in 2023 and added that the recent high volatility in the exchange rate is decoupled from economic fundamentals.
Further selling pressure in the lira came after Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index eased to 99.30 in November (from 101.40). Additional data saw the trade deficit shrinking to $1.44B in October.
key levels:
So far, the pair is gaining 4.19% at 12.7578 and a drop below 11.5451 (low November 24) would expose 10.7007 (20-day SMA) and then 9.6361 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.1105 (all-time high Nov.24) followed by 14.0000 (round level).
-USD/TRY starts the week on a positive footing.
-Turkey’s Economic Confidence dropped to 99.30.
-President Erdogan defended once again the low-rate policy.
USDTRY can be a profitable investment option. USD/TRY rate equal to 13.0648 at 2021-11-30 (today's range: 12.0455 - 13.0658). ... With a 2-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +23.60%.
Buy & Hold | +ROI
Investment Suggestion: LONG-TERM
Holding Duration : Min 2 yeasrs
Probability: 74%
Target: 14.0000-15.8000
INVT Fundamental Report: POSITIVE
INVT Technical Report: POSITIVE
INVT News Report: POSITIVE
- SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 13.0000 - 13.0700
- FAIR BUYING PRICE 12.0000 - 12.3000
- Our option for #USDTRY is LONG TERM HOLDING.
It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For December 11, 2021 Technical Analysis and Outlook
The Main Trend is currently reignited - with obsoletion of Key Res 4705; the Spooz is on its way to Outer Index Rally 4775 with the incentive of takeout all-time high 4744. The Mean Sup 4670 go-between buying opportunity.
$BKF Long SetupI am looking at the $BKF (Brazil, Russia, India & China) ETF as a great setup for a buy.
From a charting perspective, it looks like the optimal risk / reward entry. In the macroeconomic context - I would also expect rising commodity prices to pull emerging markets higher.
More on this soon!
Take care and God bless.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For December 4, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook:
We have substantial Inner Currency Dip 1.1200 completion (Validated with Trade Selecter System BARC). Hence, as stated on the November 27 chart analysis, a strong bounce transpired to Mean Res 1.1370. Consequently, the Euro is bound in a trading range between these price scales. A healthy run towards Major Key Sup is expected.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For December 4, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook:
BANG! The bitcoin price has plummeted by around $15,000 over the 24 hours. As of 08:16 GMT today, it was trading at approximately $47,580, down 16.14%, having plummeted by 31.6% from this year's all-time high of $69,000, which it attained on November 10 this year.
We are looking at this significant bitcoin market pullback as a "breather" following reaching this low-level price. Notwithstanding, it is possible to see an escalating rally pending Outer Coin Dip 42,500 confirmation (Trade Selecter System BARC) and Key Sup $40,700, which is the potential leading platform (or sooner) for the considerable rebound.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For December 2, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook
The Main Trend is currently interrupted - the Outer Index Dip notes price outcome 4480 in progress with underlying Mean Sup 4470. However, once the dying market breaks down, be prepared for this mentally and with your wallet; otherwise, it will be a rough ride supporting two primary supports: Mean Sup 4360 and Key Sup 4300.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For November 28, 2021 Technical Analysis and Outlook
The present model shows solid Outer Index Dip completion marked at 4586. The next (moderate probability) destination is marked at Mean Sup 4545. Both Outer Index Dip completion and Mean Sup signify major
upside boost trend.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For November 28, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin is currently resting at our Mean Sup $53,850 as we have a viable takedown awaiting to happen - Outer Coin Dip $52,800 target and remote probability - Key Sup $47,750. The upside move is anticipated to retest our Mean Res $60,500 with a vengeance.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For November 27, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook:
When you view this price chart, you can observe that we had substantial completion, so it makes sense to experience a strong bounce eventually. Consequently, we may make a healthy run towards Mean Res 1.137 and possibly even the 1.145 level.
Broader Money Relevance / Macro Events / FracturingA shortened Holiday Week's Macro Data Sets will provide further
information as to the "Inflation" Trade.
The Federal Reserve most closely follows PCE Data.
Wednesday will provide Direction
_______________________________________________________
Macro Data Events Week of November 22, 2021
Monday:
10:00 Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
* 3/6 Bill & 2/5 Note Auctions.
Tuesday:
08:55 Redbook (MoM) / (YoY)
09:45 Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
09:45 Services PMI (Nov)
10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index (Nov)
Wednesday:
07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
07:00 MBA Purchase Index
07:00 Mortgage Market Index
07:00 Mortgage Refinance Index
08:30 Continuing Jobless Claims
08:30 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
08:30 Core PCE Prices (Q3)
08:30 Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3)
08:30 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)
08:30 Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Oct)
08:30 GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
08:30 GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)
08:30 GDP Sales (Q3)
08:30 Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Oct)
08:30 Goods Trade Balance (Oct)
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
08:30 PCE Prices (Q3)
08:30 Real Consumer Spending (Q3)
08:30 Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Oct)
08:30 Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
09:30 MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
10:00 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
10:00 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
10:00 Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Nov)
10:00 Michigan Consumer Expectations (Nov)
10:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)
10:00 Michigan Inflation Expectations (Nov)
10:00 New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
10:00 ***** PCE Price index (YoY) (Oct) *****
10:00 ***** PCE price index (MoM) (Oct) *****
10:00 Personal Income (MoM) (Oct)
10:00 Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct)
10:00 Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Oct)
_______________________________________________________
Violent Price Action Potential
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For November 13, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has completed our Inner Coin Rally 65,990, as we have newly developed Key Res 67,530 target to be revisited following takedown to Mean Sup 60,990, along with the Inner Coin Rally 70,190, and an all-time high of 69,000 marks.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For November 16, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Euro is currently in completion mode with our Inner #2 Currency Dip 1.1407 and Inner #1 Currency Dip 1.1367. BARC (Trade Selecter System Proprietary Symbol) confirmation is required to initiate buying opportunity - intermediate downtrend halt. The aggressive (High-risk takers) may buy currently fluctuating prices around Inner #1 Currency Dip for short-term gains. Low-risk traders stand by.
USD TRY long term view up to 10.60 - 12.00Currency markets were becalmed in early Asian trade on Monday. The only action was on the Emerging Markets with the Turkish Lira hitting an all-time low. Against the US Dollar, the TRY (Turkish Lira) hit a record low of 9.85 so far in early Asia.
* Turkey 2021 inflation target raised to 18.4% from 14.1%
* Miners lead losses in China, Russia as commodity prices fall
* U.S. telecoms regulator revokes China Telecom’s authorisation
Emerging market stocks slipped for a third session on Thursday as sliding commodity prices and fresh fears about U.S.-China ties weighed, while Turkey’s lira fell on a worrying divergence between the direction of inflation and monetary policy.
With sliding base metal and basic material prices, miners led losses in most bourses. Heavyweight China stocks lost between 0.4% and 1.2%, while a 4% slump in Russian aluminium giant Rusal took Moscow’s MOEX index 0.9% lower, more than 2% away from record highs.
Meanwhile, news of the U.S. telecoms regulator revoking China Telecom’s authorisation to operate late on Wednesday sparked fears about the fragile relation between the world’s two largest economies.
A tit-for-tat tariff war between China and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration had roiled global financial markets and contributed to slowing economic growth.
In debt markets, the average yield on EM local debt moved back above 5.6%, the highest since March 2020.
While most EM currencies made muted moves against a steady dollar, Turkey’s lira dipped 0.7% after a three-day relief rally.
The central bank raised inflation targets for the next three years, with 2021 year-end inflation now seen at 18.4%, up from an earlier forecast of 14.1%.
“The argument that high inflation is transitory may be true elsewhere, but not in Turkey, which has experienced high inflation for over a decade,” said Tatha Ghose, FX analyst at Commerzbank.
“No matter what (the central bank) writes in its statements about limited room available for further rate cuts, President Tayyip Erdogan will not be happy until rates have been cut to single digit... As the unconventional monetary policy experiment unfolds, we can see USD-TRY overshooting by a wide margin.”
The currency has been the worst performing among EM peers this year, thanks to uncertain and unconventional monetary policy amid surging inflation by a central bank fast losing autonomy, as well as depleting foreign exchange reserves and strained ties with the West.
South Africa’s rand traded flat as state power utility Eskom increased scheduled power cuts on Wednesday after further breakdowns at its coal-fired power stations. A report suggested it will require $30 billion to end its coal reliance.
Eyes were also on local elections scheduled on Monday. A weak result for the ruling ANC party in Johannesburg or in Tshwane, which comprises Pretoria, would be a heavy blow for President Cyril Ramaphosa and his reform course, and is therefore also likely to affect the rand, said Commerzbank.
USDTRY can be a profitable investment option. USD/TRY rate equal to 9.632 at 2021-11-03 (today's range: 9.593 - 9.658). ... With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +62.89%.
- SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 9.55 - 10.00
- FAIR BUYING PRICE 7.80 - 8.90
- Our option for #USDTRY is HOLDING LONG TERM.
Do your research before any trade or any investment, make your own decision, be patient and look long term wisely.
Please comment, like and follow if this post helped you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable trading.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |