S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index (Spooz) displayed notable volatility during the current week's trading session, departing from recent trends. As an analysis of the Weekly Chart for July 26 reveals the index reached the projected Mean Support level of 5402 before surging to the designated target, Mean Res 5567. Upon achieving this target, the Spooz dropped to our selected Inner Index Dip 5345 target like a bad habit. The prevailing price action suggests a sustained uptrend toward the Mean Res 5449 and a possible extension to the Mean Res 5525 in the upcoming week's trading sessions. It is worth noting that these attained targets are likely to exert downward pressure.
Economy
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the most recent trading session, the Eurodollar displayed its ability to recover from the completed Inner Currency Dip of 1.082 and Mean Support levels of 1.081 and 1.078. The prevailing analysis indicates a sustained upward trajectory toward a Mean Support level and its associated completed Inner Currency Dip of 1.094. These critical targets may prompt swift downward movements toward a Mean Support of 1.083, potentially extending to target the subsequent Mean Support level of 1.078.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin experienced a significant drop from an attempt to complete the Inner Coin Rally of 70400. However, the Mean Resistance 68200 was the main barrier during this week's trading session. The overall trend suggests a recovery towards Mean Resistance 65300, with a possible extension to Mean Resistance 68200 and Inner Coin Rally 70400. There may be interim downward pressure toward the Mean Support at 55800 before the coin resumes its up movement.
TOLL Brothers #TOL new high vs US single family home priceHomemakers are making money over fist.
Does this confirm that the housing bull market will continue.
It seems like it doesn't it
This ratio highlights the housing bottom in the 90's
this Ratio also topped out in 2005 before the housing bubble popped
#Roaring20's
#Bitcoin & The business cycle are intertwined!In the bottom pane is the US Purchasing managers index number
a number below 50 ( and nearly all the time below 47) means a recession/ economic slowdown is looming.
But as you can see on the rebound , as the PMI number moves above 50 and back into a expanding economy
we have seen it coincide with the great bitcoin bull markets.
Let's hope this trend continues.
$GBINTRS - BoE's Snowball - The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose
at their recent monetary policy committee meeting.
The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point,
taking the official rate to 5% ;
double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists.
BoE hiking interest rates to 5% ,
it adds further strain to millions of homeowners across the country.
The Central Bank Rates was upped by 0.5% from 4.5% previously
and remains at it's Highest Level since 2008 Financial Crisis.
$USINTR - A Month of BreathThe Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR
unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more.
It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since September 2007.
Throughout Fed's announcement The Dollar Index TVC:DXY
plunged to what can be said Wave C completed from A-B-C
Elliot Waves Correction
(attached ideas)
Have the markets priced in Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY and Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR ?
TRADE SAFE
*** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading session of the current week, the Eurodollar sustained its decline by the Weekly Chart Analysis for the Week of July 19. The prevailing analysis indicates a continued downward trajectory toward a Mean Support of 1.081 and its corresponding Mean Support of 1.078. The anticipated downward movements will result in an initial interim rebound, potentially reaching a Mean Resistance of 1.089.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index, also known as Spooz, demonstrated a significant downward trend, as analysed in the Weekly Chart for July 19. It reached the anticipated Mean Support level at 5449 and Key Support at 5420. There is an expectation of a swift recovery after reaching these levels, propelling the price toward the designated Mean Resistance target at 5567. Nonetheless, the prevailing price action indicates a sustained primary decline toward the Key Sup 5350 and Inner Index Dip of 5345 in the forthcoming week/week's trading sessions. It is acknowledged that these achieved targets will exert pressure for a robust rebound.
A look at M2 Money Stock Out of curiosity I took a look M2 to see the trends over the years and how it compares to COVID and the last few years. I don't have any great revelations to share about what to do, but I thought the chart was interesting. I also did some research and used ChatGPT to help me create a summary about M2. Please note that I cannot guarantee the following text is perfectly accurate, I am not a financial expert or advisor, but it is an interesting overview. Enjoy.
1) Introduction:
Money Stock Measure 2, or M2, is a comprehensive measure of the money supply that includes various types of financial assets held by the public. It encompasses M1 — which consists of the most liquid forms of money like cash and checking deposits — and adds less liquid forms such as savings deposits, time deposits under $100,000, and retail money market mutual funds. This broader measure provides a more complete picture of the available money within an economy than M1 alone.
2) Why M2 Matters to the Economy and the Stock Market:
Monetary Policy Indicator: M2 growth rates can indicate the looseness or tightness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rapid growth in M2 may suggest a looser policy with potential implications for lower interest rates, while slower growth could indicate a tightening policy stance.
Economic Health Predictor: Fluctuations in M2 can signal upcoming changes in economic activity. An expanding M2 typically suggests that more money is flowing into the economy, potentially boosting consumer spending and overall economic growth. However, if this expansion leads to inflation without an accompanying increase in real output, it could be detrimental.
Interest Rate Influence: Since M2 impacts interest rates, it indirectly affects the stock market. Lower interest rates from an increased M2 can reduce borrowing costs and stimulate both capital expenditures and consumer spending, which generally supports higher stock prices.
Inflation Expectations: Inflation can erode the purchasing power of money. An inflating M2 can lead investors to adjust their expectations, impacting bond yields and stock valuations.
3) As an investor, monitoring M2 can enhance decision-making in several ways:
Growth Trends: Observing whether M2 is expanding or contracting can provide clues about future economic conditions and monetary policy directions, helping investors anticipate market movements.
Asset Allocation: During periods of M2 expansion (indicative of lower interest rates), investors might favor stocks, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary that benefit from increased consumer spending. Conversely, a slowdown in M2 growth could be a signal to move towards safer assets like short-term bonds, which are less sensitive to interest rate rises.
Sector Impacts: Different sectors react differently to changes in M2. For example, financials might benefit from higher interest rates, while sectors sensitive to consumer spending could gain from an expansionary M2 environment.
Inflation Hedge: Rapid increases in M2 that might lead to inflation suggest that investors should consider assets that typically perform well during inflationary periods, such as commodities or real estate.
Global Considerations: For those invested internationally, understanding how M2 changes affect global markets and capital flows is crucial, particularly in how developed economies' liquidity influences emerging markets.
4) Conclusion:
M2 is a critical economic indicator that offers valuable insights into future monetary policies, economic health, and market directions. It is not a perfect metric on its own, but by integrating M2 data into broader market analyses and considering its implications on different sectors and asset classes, investors can make more informed decisions, optimizing their portfolios to better navigate the complexities of financial markets.
Euro-Zone GDP Quarterly *3M (QoQ)ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ (+0.3 %)
Q1/2024
source: EUROSTAT
The Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022, to beat market expectations of a marginal 0.1% expansion and gain traction following muted readings since the fourth quarter of 2022.
The result added leeway for the European Central Bank to refrain from cutting rates to a larger extent this year should inflationary pressures prove to be more stubborn than previously expected.
Among the currency bloc’s largest economies, both the German and the French GDPs expanded by 0.2%, while that from Italy grew by 0.3% and that from Spain expanded by 0.7%, all above market estimates.
Compared to the same quarter of the previous year ECONOMICS:EUGDPYY ,
the Eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4%, beating market expectations of 0.2%, and gaining traction after two straight quarters of 0.1% growth.
UPS looking DOWNSNice head and Shoulders on the United Parcel Service
#UPS and FEDEX are the new dow transport indicator.
An underlying determinant of how the consumer is faring
Since the US is a consumer economy and Online shopping is the majority of retail
if we see new highs on the Indicies, and the home delivery carriers continue to deteriorate
it would give your non confirmation Top
Similar to Dow theory of new High's in the Industrials , but the transports lagging and indeed falling.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin exhibited significant down movement by reaching our Mean Support level at 64000 and subsequently rebounded strongly to retest our Mean Resistance level at 68200, as outlined in the Weekly Chart Analysis for the Week of July 19. The overall trend indicates progression toward the Inner Coin Rally at 70400, a retest of the completed Main Inner Coin Rally at 73200, and striding on to the anticipated long-term target of the Outer Coin Rally at 92000. It's important to note the initial downward pressure on the primary support at 65400 as the coin moves upward.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Spooz has once again demonstrated resilience in this week's trading session by banging on Key Res 5635 and completed Inner Index Rally 5642. This week's achievement was also the completion of Inner Index Rally 5668. The prevailing price action suggests a continuous primary decline toward the Mean Support at 5449 and a conceivable extension to the Mean Support at 5420. Anticipation surrounds a prompt recovery after attaining these targets, directing the price toward the designated target of Mean Resistance at 5567, with a conceivable extension to Key Resistance at 5666 in the impending week's trading session.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited a notable surge once again, exceeding the Mean Resistance level of 1.090 and the previously attained Inner Currency Rally of 1.091, ultimately reaching this week's Inner Currency Rally of 1.094. The prevailing analysis indicates a sustained downward movement towards Mean Sup 1.086 and its corresponding Mean Sup 1.081. The concluded downward movements are anticipated to yield an initial interim rebound, such as Mean Res 1.086.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has consistently demonstrated an upward trend in the current week's trading, aligning with the projections outlined in the Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of July 12. Both the Mean Resistance level at 60400 and the subsequent Mean Resistance level at 62800 were not only reached but surpassed greatly. The overall trajectory is progressing towards the long-anticipated target of the Outer Coin Rally at 92000. Concurrently, two significant interim milestones have emerged: the Inner Coin Rally at 70400 and a retest of the completed Main Inner Coin Rally at 73300. It is imperative to underscore the substantial downward primary squeeze pressure toward 64000, prevalent across all specified upper target levels.
$JPIRYY -Japan Inflation Rate YoYECONOMICS:JPIRYY (March/2024)
The annual inflation rate in Japan ticked lower to 2.7% in March 2024 from February's 3-month peak of 2.8%, matching market consensus.
There were slowdowns in prices of transport (2.9% vs 3.0% in February), clothes (2.0% vs 2.6%), furniture & household utensils (3.2% vs 5.1%), healthcare (1.5% vs 1.8%), communication (0.2% vs 1.4%), and culture & recreation (7.2% vs 7.3%).
At the same time, inflation was stable for food (at 4.8%), housing (at 0.6%), education (at 1.3%), and miscellaneous (at 1.1%).
Meanwhile, prices of fuel, and light dropped the least in a year (-1.7% vs -3.0%), with electricity (-1.0% and -2.5%) and gas (-7.1% vs -9.4%) falling at softer paces as energy subsidies from the government would fully end in May.
The core inflation rate fell to 2.6% from a four-month top of 2.8%, slightly below forecasts of 2.7%. Monthly, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in March, the most since last October, after being flat in the prior two months.
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
$EUINTR - Highest Level since 2000The European Central Bank raised Interest Rates by a Quarter of a percentage point Thursday, judging that Inflation remains too High ;
even as data points to a deepening economic downturn in the 20 countries that use the euro.
The move takes the benchmark rate in the euro area to 3.75%, the highest since October 2000.
$GBIRYY - CPI (YoY)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% (April/2024)
source: Office for National Statistics
The annual inflation rate in the UK eased to 2.3% in April 2024,
the lowest since July 2021, compared to 3.2% in March and market forecasts of 2.1%.
The largest downward pressure came from falling gas (-37.5% vs -26.5% in March) and electricity (-21% vs -13%) cost, due to the lowering of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in April.
At the same time, prices slowed for food (2.9%, the lowest since November 2021 vs 4%) and recreation and culture (4.4% vs 5.3%).
On the other hand, the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution came from cost of motor fuels.
The average price of petrol rose by 3.3 pence per litre between March and April 2024 to stand at 148.1 pence per litre, up from 145.8 pence per litre in April 2023. Prices also rose faster for restaurants and hotels (6% vs 5.8%) and miscellaneous goods and services (3.6% vs 3.4%).
Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%.
Shipping prices increasing, Oil going lower, cancel each other?By the graph included, we can see that Asian container freight rate prices are skyrocketing. This is due to disruption & stock.
This is good sign for the overall economy, means not in recession.
With news that Trump is being called the next prez will #oil trend lower?
Maybe one can offset the other?
LSE:INDU SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX AMEX:USO
$CNGDPQQ -China's GDP (QoQ)ECONOMICS:CNGDPQQ (Q2/2024)
- The Chinese economy expanded 4.7% yoy in Q2 2024, missing market forecasts of 5.1% and slowing from a 5.3% growth in Q1.
It was the weakest advance since Q1 2023, amid a persistent property downturn, weak domestic demand, falling yuan, and trade frictions with the West.
In June, retail sales rose the least in near 1-1/2 years while industrial output growth was at a 3-month low.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Spooz has again demonstrated resilience in this week's trading session, advancing to the next Outer Index Rally 6515 and completing the newly created Inner Index Rally 5642. The current price action suggests a primary squeeze to Mean Sup 5577 and a secondary squeeze to Mean Sup 5535. The additional supplemental squeeze target 5449 cannot be discounted.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar has demonstrated a substantial surge, surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 1.085 and reaching the designated target of Mean Res 1.090 and the previously completed Inner Currency Rally of 1.091. The prevailing analysis suggests a potential downward movement for the Euro toward the Mean Support level of 1.086, with additional extensions identified at Mean Support levels of 1.081 and 1.078, respectively.