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7 Ways to Optimize Your Trading Strategy Like a ProYou’ve got a trading strategy—great. But if you think that’s where the work ends, think again. A good strategy is like a sports car: It’s fast, fun, and dangerous… unless you keep it tuned and under control. And given how volatile modern trading is, yesterday’s strategy can quickly become tomorrow’s account-drainer. So, how do you keep your trading strategy sharp and in profit mode? Let’s dive into seven ways to fine-tune your setup like a pro. 1️⃣ Backtest Like Your Profits Depend on It (Spoiler: They Do) Before you let your strategy loose in the wild, backtest it against historical data. It’s not enough to say, “This looks good.” Run the numbers. Find out how it performs over different time frames, market conditions, and asset classes — stocks , crypto , forex , and more. If you’re not backtesting, you run the risk of trading blind — use the sea of charting tools and instruments around here, slap them on previous price action and see how they do. 💡 Pro Tip : Make sure to backtest with realistic conditions. Don’t cheat with perfect hindsight—markets aren’t that kind. 2️⃣ Optimize for Risk, Not Just Reward Everyone gets starry-eyed over profits, but the best traders obsess over risk management. Adjust your strategy to keep risk in check. Ask yourself: How much are you willing to lose per trade? What’s your win-loss ratio? A strategy that promises massive returns but ignores risk is more like a ticking time bomb than a way to pull in long-term profits. 💡 Pro Tip : Use a risk-reward ratio of at least 2:1. It’s simple: risk $1 to make $2, and you’ve got a buffer against losses. Want to go big? Use 5:1 or why not even 15:1? Learn all about it in our Asymmetric Risk Reward Idea. 3️⃣ Diversify Your Strategy Across Markets If you’re only trading one asset or market, you’re asking for trouble (sooner or later). Markets move in cycles, and your strategy might crush it in one but flop in another. Spread your strategy across different markets to smooth out the rough patches. 💡 Pro Tip : Don’t confuse this with over-trading. You’re diversifying, not chasing every pop. 4️⃣ Fine-Tune Your Time Frames Your strategy might be solid on the 1-hour chart but struggle on the 5-minute or daily. Different time frames bring different opportunities and risks. Test your strategy across multiple time frames to see where it shines and where it stumbles. 💡 Pro Tip : Day traders? Shorten those time frames. Swing traders? Stretch ’em out. Find the sweet spot that aligns with your trading style. 5️⃣ Stay Agile with Market Conditions No strategy is perfect for every market condition. What works in a trending market could blow up in a range-bound one. Optimize your strategy to adapt to volatility, volume, and trend shifts. Pay attention to news events , central bank meetings, and earnings reports — they can flip the script fast. 💡 Pro Tip : Learn to identify when your strategy isn’t working and take a step back. Not every day is a trading day. 6️⃣ Incorporate Multiple Indicators (But Don’t Go Overboard) More indicators = more profits, right? Wrong. It’s easy to fall into the trap of loading up your charts with a dozen indicators until you’re drowning in lines and signals. Keep it simple — combine 3 to 5 complementary indicators that confirm your strategy’s signals, and ditch the rest. 💡 Pro Tip : Use one indicator for trend confirmation and another for entry/exit timing. 7️⃣ Keep Tweaking, But Don’t Blow Out of Proportion Here’s the rub: There’s a fine line between optimization and over-optimization. Adjusting your strategy too much based on past data can lead to overfitting — your strategy works perfectly on historical data but crashes in live markets. Keep tweaking, but always test those tweaks in live conditions to make sure they hold up. 💡 Pro Tip : Keep a trading journal to track your tweaks. If you don’t track it, you won’t know what’s working and what’s not. Get familiar with the attributes of a successful trading plan with one of our top-performing Ideas: What’s in a Trading Plan? 💎 Bonus: Never Stop Learning The market’s constantly changing and your strategy needs to change with it. Keep studying, keep testing, and keep learning. The moment you think you’ve mastered the market is the moment it humbles you. Optimizing a trading strategy isn’t a one-and-done deal—it’s an ongoing process. By fine-tuning, testing, and staying flexible, you can keep your strategy sharp, profitable, and ahead of the curve. Optimize smart, trade smart!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
7
30% to 60% Upside Coming for Natty (Divergence Strategy)A powerful monthly bullish divergence just confirmed on natty. We see that the CCI had a monthly close which confirmed the bullish divergence setup. In this video I review how to determine targets with this strategy, and how to determine your risk. I anticipate a minimum 30% rally from current prices for natty, possibly heading up 60% from here. This doesn't mean this market won't have a pullback in the meantime. In my opinion, pullbacks are for buying until these price targets are reached. If you have any questions about this strategy, feel free to shoot me a message. Have a great week.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
18
The British Pound Is Stronger than the US DollarThe British Pound Is Stronger than the US Dollar: Understanding the Reasons GBP/USD is the third most actively traded currency pair on the foreign exchange market, after EUR/USD and USD/JPY. It is also one of the oldest pairs traded on forex. The British pound continues to cost more than the US dollar, despite the dollar overtaking it as the global reserve currency. Why is the British pound stronger than the US dollar? In this FXOpen article, we look at the GBP/USD pair and the factors that keep the British pound strong to help you understand how to trade it. What Is the GBP/USD Pair? Currencies are always traded in pairs on foreign exchange markets. GBP/USD refers to the value of the British pound sterling against the US dollar – specifically, how many US dollars traders need to buy one pound. For example, if the GBP/USD exchange rate is 1.28, a trader would need $1.28 to buy £1. How come the British pound is always stronger than the US dollar? The answer is rooted in history. A Brief History of the GBP/USD Pair Until World War I, the British pound was the global reserve currency, accounting for over 60% of the world’s debt holdings. It was valued at just under $5. After the war, the US dollar began to strengthen, and by 1944, when the Bretton Woods system was introduced, the pound was pegged at $4.03. The Bretton Woods system fixed the US dollar to the gold price and established it as the unofficial global reserve currency. After World War II, the value of the USD began to rise, and it overtook GBP as the primary currency used in international trade. The Bretton Woods system began to slowly collapse after 1971, and both the GBP and USD became free-floating, with the US dropping the gold standard. This has resulted in the value of the GBP gradually sliding over the following decades. The free-float rate made the GBP/USD pair highly volatile. The pound sterling reached a high of 2.08 against the dollar in 2007 during the global financial crisis, as higher UK inflation raised expectations that the Bank of England would raise interest rates. In June 2016, the UK’s vote to leave the European Union drove the value of the pound down to the 1.20–1.25 area overnight. That was its lowest level since the collapse of the exchange rate mechanism in 1985 and the largest one-day decline since the end of Bretton Woods. The GBP/USD pair has since largely traded between 1.20-1.40. A notable exception was the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, when investors flocked to the safe haven US dollar amid uncertainty about the economic impact, and the pound fell to 1.16 against the USD. COVID-19 shutdowns and the loss of European trade following Brexit have weighed on the prospects for the UK economy. At the same time, geopolitical tensions such as the US-China trade war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have lifted the value of the dollar, as have rising interest rates. In 2022, the Bank of England was forced to intervene as the value of sterling fell close to a record low of 1.035 against the dollar in response to a crisis of confidence in the UK government, high inflation and unemployment rates, and concerns regarding the domestic economy. However, by April 2023, the pound had recovered and became the best-performing G-10 currency of the year. According to Forbes, the British pound is the world’s fifth strongest currency, while the US dollar is the 10th strongest. The GBP/USD pair has primarily been trading around 1.20-1.30 so far in 2023. Why is the pound still stronger than the dollar? Is GBP Stronger than USD? Why is the pound more expensive than the dollar? The value of the GBP against the USD in forex doesn’t solely determine the strength of the US and UK economies. Analysts consider other factors that can question the strength of the pound. Nominal Value A currency’s nominal value refers to its value against another currency in forex. As was mentioned above, the nominal value of both currencies changed significantly over time. Although GBP was always more expensive than the US dollar, this conclusion is relatively arbitrary. Also, it’s worth considering the lower number of British pounds in circulation, which is worth £81 billion, compared to $2.33 trillion US dollars, which contributes to the higher value of GBP as of May 2023. Relative Strength The strength of a particular currency against another at any point in time is also relative, as it could actually be weaker against other currencies. For example, GBP could rise in value against USD but fall against EUR, AUD and JPY, which would suggest that the relative value of the pound is weaker – just not as weak as the USD. This is because the relative strength is determined not only by the value of one currency against another but by economic data, including inflation, economic growth, and the trade balance, which determine the strength of the overall economy. To gauge a currency’s real strength, analysts track its value in relation to multiple currencies over time. For instance, the Dollar Index (DXY) measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies from its key trading partners and competitors, as this is a more accurate measure of its value than a single pair. Quoting Conventions The use of GBP/USD as the quoting convention reflects the pound’s strength. For instance, a GBP/USD quote of 1.25 signifies that $1.25 is needed to buy £1. This quoting convention originated in the late 1900s during the British Empire when the UK had a larger economy than the US. Despite the subsequent shift in economic power, this convention has endured. Since World War I, the US economy has surpassed the UK economy in terms of size. Modifying quoting conventions is challenging, given how entrenched they are in the financial industry. However, the tradition of quoting GBP/USD in itself does not determine the value of the pound and the dollar. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) While the GBP/USD trading value suggests the pound is stronger, the purchasing power parity (PPP) fluctuates. PPP indicates how much a currency is worth based on the value of a basket of goods. In these terms, the dollar can be stronger than the pound. The concept underlying PPP is that the exchange rate should equalise the purchasing power of each currency within its respective country. For instance, if a basket of items costs £100 in the UK with a GBP/USD exchange rate of 1.15, the PPP would suggest that the equivalent cost of the same basket in US dollars should be $115. In practice, exchange rates frequently diverge from their PPP levels. The degree to which a currency such as GBP or USD deviates from its PPP indicates its relative strength or weakness against another currency. Global Economy Although the US economy is stronger than that of Great Britain, sterling’s history as the former global reserve currency and political and economic power have contributed to its strength. The pound is one of the world’s oldest currencies, having been introduced in the 1400s. The UK remains a major global financial centre, and the Bank of England continues to participate in international economic developments. What Factors Affect GBP/USD There are several factors that affect the value of the British pound and US dollar: - US Federal Reserve monetary policy - Bank of England monetary policy - Inflation rate, which has a strong impact on the interest rates - Employment data, which influences government fiscal policy - Geopolitical events - Other economic indicators, including retail sales and industrial production Does It Matter If GBP/USD Falls Below Parity? A weaker sterling could support UK exports, but it would also increase the cost of imported goods and drive up inflation. The Bank of England would be forced to intervene to contain inflation. As seen in 2022, there is also a risk that a sharp drop in the pound’s value could become disorderly, which could create political and economic turmoil. However, if the value of the pound fell below the dollar, it would be a psychological milestone for the UK, but it would not have a major impact on the forex market. Conclusion The British pound sterling has traditionally maintained a higher value against the US dollar because of historical convention. However, the US dollar is stronger overall as it is the world's reserve currency and has larger trading volumes. The GBP/USD exchange rate has been in a long downtrend. Therefore, there are risks that GBP will soon lose its nominal premium. Understanding how the British pound is stronger than the US dollar can help you to form strategies to trade the GBP/USD forex pair. By observing economic indicators, you can take a view on how you expect the market to move. If you are looking to trade forex markets, you can open an FXOpen account. The TickTrader platform allows you to analyse live price charts and trade a range of currency pairs. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
11
How to Trade Gap Up and Gap Down Opening? Full Guide What is gap up and gap down in trading? In this article, I will teach you how to trade gap up and gap down opening . You will learn a simple and profitable gap trading strategy that works perfectly on Forex, Gold or any other financial market. First, let's start with a theory . A gap up after the market opening is the situation when the market opens higher than it was closed without any trading activity in between. Above you can see the example a gap up after the market opening on EURGBP. The price level where the market closed is called gap opening level. The price level where the market opened is galled gap closing level. A gap down after the market opening is the situation when the market opens lower than it was closed without trading activity in between. Here is the example of a gap down after the market opening on WTI Crude Oil. Why such gaps occur? There are various reasons why opening gaps occur. One of the most common one is the release of positive or negative news while the market was closed. The market opening price will reflect the impact of such news, causing a formation of the gap. What gap opening means? Gap openings reflect the sudden change in the market sentiment. Gap up will indicate a very bullish sentiment on the market while a gap down will imply very bearish mood of the market participants. However, the markets do not like the gaps. With a very high probability, the gaps are always filled by the market very soon. We say that the gap is filled, when the price returns to the gap opening level. Above, you can see that after some time, EURGBP successfully closed the gap - returned to gap opening level. Such a pattern is very reliable and consistent among different financial markets. For that reason, it can provide profitable trading opportunities for us. You can see that a gap down on WTI Crude Oil was quickly filled and the price returned to the gap opening level. How to trade gap opening? Gap Up Trading Strategy Once you spotted a gap up after the market opening, you should wait for a bearish signal before you sell. You should look for a sign of strength of the sellers. One of the most accurate signals is a formation of a bearish price action pattern: Double top, Triple top, Inverted Cup and Handle, Head and Shoulders, Symmetrical or Descending Triangle, Rising Wedge... Bearish breakout of a trend line / neckline of the pattern will be your signal to sell. Look at a price action on EURGBP before it filled the gap. At some moment, the price formed a double top pattern and broke its neckline. That is our signal to sell. Your stop loss should lie above the highs of the pattern. Take profit - gap opening level. Safest entry is on a retest of a broken neckline/trend line of the pattern. Safest entry point on EURGBP is the retest of a broken neckline of a double top pattern. Stop is lying above its highs. TP - gap opening level. Gap Down Trading Strategy Once you spotted a gap down after the market opening, you should wait for a bullish signal before you sell. You should look for a sign of strength of the buyers. One of the most accurate signals is a formation of a bullish price action pattern: Double bottom, Triple bottom, Cup and Handle, Inverted Head and Shoulders, Symmetrical or Ascending Triangle, Rising Wedge... Bullish breakout of a trend line / neckline of the pattern will be your signal to buy . Let's study the price action on WTI Crude Oil before it filled the gap. You can see that the price formed a cup and handle pattern. Bullish breakout of its neckline is a strong bullish signal. Safest entry is on a retest of a broken neckline/trend line of the pattern. Your stop loss should lie above the lows of the pattern. Take profit - gap opening level. Following this strategy, a nice profit was made. Always remember that probabilities that the gap will be filled are very high. However, it is not clear WHEN exactly it will happen. For that reason, you should carefully analyze a price action and wait for a signal, before you open the trade. That will be your best gap opening trading strategy. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
10
Apple Stair-Steps Toward a Potential BreakoutApple could be stair-stepping toward a potential breakout as a big month approaches. The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of rallies and pullbacks since early August. Both times the smart-phone giant bounced at a 50 percent retracement of the upward move. (See the green arrows.) Does that reflect the presence of an uptrend? Next, AAPL is holding above its 21-day exponential moving average and 50-day simple moving average. That may reflect the presence of bullish uptrend. Third is the 2023 high of $199.62. The stock broke through that resistance in June after announcing AI support at its Worldwide Developers Conference. It then found support around that old resistance last month. The first AI features are expected to appear in October, along with quarterly results. Traders looking for a breakout may look to those catalysts for cues. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TradeStation
2
THE MUST-SEE CHART YOU DIDN'T KNOW YOU NEEDED!The TVC:VIX VIX (Volatility Index), often referred to as the "Fear Gauge," measures market volatility expectations based on options prices for the SP:SPX S&P 500 index over the next 30 days. It reflects the sentiment of market participants about future volatility, with higher values indicating more anticipated volatility (often associated with market fear or uncertainty) and lower values reflecting calm market conditions. Investors frequently use the TVC:VIX VIX as a tool for assessing market risk, especially during periods of market turbulence or significant economic events. Since it tends to rise when the stock market declines, it is often seen as a hedge against market downturns. It's important for traders and analysts, particularly in the context of options trading and for assessing overall market sentiment. The TVC:VIX VIX's relationship with the cryptocurrency market, particularly with BNC:BLX Bitcoin and other major assets, can offer insights into market sentiment across traditional and digital financial spaces. While the TVC:VIX VIX primarily reflects volatility in the U.S. equity market, changes in its level can indirectly impact cryptocurrencies in the following ways: 1. Market Sentiment Correlation: High VIX: A rising VIX indicates fear or uncertainty in traditional markets. In times of high volatility, investors tend to move away from risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, leading to potential sell-offs in both markets. However, some may consider Bitcoin a hedge during extreme cases of fear, driving demand as a "digital gold" asset. Low VIX: A lower VIX reflects calm and stability, which may encourage investors to take on more risk. This could benefit high-risk, high-reward assets like cryptocurrencies, potentially driving capital into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptos. 2. Liquidity and Risk-Off/Risk-On Dynamics: In a risk-off environment (high VIX), institutional and retail investors often reduce exposure to volatile assets like crypto, leading to a potential liquidity crunch and sell-offs. Conversely, a risk-on environment (low VIX) may signal that investors are more willing to take risks, increasing liquidity and driving up crypto prices. 3. Crypto's Evolving Correlation with Equities: Over time, there has been an evolving correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, particularly during times of high macroeconomic stress (e.g., during the COVID-19 pandemic or interest rate hikes). As VIX tracks equity market sentiment, rising volatility in equities often spills into crypto markets. In bull markets or periods of equity recovery, crypto markets may also benefit from an inflow of capital, reducing VIX levels and increasing crypto prices simultaneously. 4. Hedging and Diversification: Some institutional investors use the VIX as part of their hedging strategy when managing portfolios with exposure to equities and cryptocurrencies. For example, a high VIX may prompt them to move into stablecoins or reduce exposure to speculative assets. In the future, more sophisticated products like a "crypto volatility index" may emerge, mirroring the role of the VIX but for digital assets. 5. Macro Events: Major macroeconomic events, such as central bank decisions or geopolitical events, can cause both the VIX to rise and have similar effects on crypto volatility. During such periods, correlations between traditional and digital markets may strengthen. feargreedmeter.com The VIX (Volatility Index) and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index serve similar purposes by gauging market sentiment, but they do so in different ways and in distinct markets. Below is a comparison between the two: 1. Purpose and Market Focus VIX (Volatility Index): Market: Traditional financial markets, specifically the S&P 500. Purpose: Measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days based on options prices. It’s often used as an indicator of fear or complacency in the U.S. stock market. Focus: Short-term volatility expectations, acting as a “fear gauge” for equity market participants. Crypto Fear and Greed Index: Market: Cryptocurrency markets, with a strong emphasis on Bitcoin. Purpose: Measures the emotional sentiment of the crypto market by analysing multiple factors to determine whether the market is driven by fear or greed. Focus: Broader emotional sentiment rather than technical market volatility. It tracks how much fear or optimism is present among crypto traders. 2. Inputs and Calculation VIX: Derived from the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500. It looks at a range of call and put options to estimate expected price swings in the market. Key Factors: Options market data, specifically the prices investors are willing to pay to hedge against future volatility in the stock market. Crypto Fear and Greed Index: Combines various inputs to capture overall market sentiment. These include: Volatility: Tracks Bitcoin volatility and compares it with historical trends. Increased volatility is associated with fear. Market Momentum/Volume: Rising buying volumes signal greed while declining volumes suggest fear. Social Media Sentiment: Analyses mentions, hashtags, and engagement on social media related to crypto topics, reflecting hype or panic. Surveys : Sometimes include survey data from market participants. Dominance: Focuses on Bitcoin’s dominance in the market. Rising dominance suggests fear (as investors flock to Bitcoin for safety) while decreasing dominance implies a risk-on environment. Google Trends: Looks at search query trends for cryptocurrency terms, reflecting public interest and sentiment. 3. Interpretation VIX: Higher VIX (>20): Indicates high expected volatility, often interpreted as fear in the market. Investors are anticipating larger price swings, usually in a negative direction. Lower VIX (<20): Suggests a calm market with lower expected volatility, often indicating complacency or a bullish outlook in the equity markets. Crypto Fear and Greed Index: 0-24 (Extreme Fear): Indicates significant fear in the crypto market. Traders may be overly concerned about price drops, which could lead to buying opportunities based on contrarian strategies. 25-49 (Fear): The market is still cautious, with more sellers than buyers. 50-74 (Greed): Optimism and confidence are high, with traders taking on more risk. 75-100 (Extreme Greed): Overconfidence or euphoria in the market. This is often seen as a warning that the market may be overbought, making a correction likely. 4. Time Horizon VIX: It focuses on expected short-term volatility (the next 30 days), meaning it's more of a short-term indicator of market swings. Crypto Fear and Greed Index: A broader measure of overall sentiment, not specifically tied to volatility or timeframes, it captures emotional extremes in the market that could persist for days, weeks, or longer. 5. Use Cases for Investors VIX: Used by traditional investors to gauge risk in the stock market. When the VIX is high, it can be a signal to hedge positions, reduce exposure to equities, or take advantage of volatility-driven strategies like options trading. During periods of low volatility, investors may become complacent and could be blindsided by sudden spikes in the VIX, often driven by external events (e.g., geopolitical issues or economic reports). Crypto Fear and Greed Index: Helps crypto traders assess the general market mood. Extreme fear can signal potential buying opportunities (contrarian strategy), while extreme greed may indicate an overheated market, possibly a time to sell or de-risk. Useful for emotional market analysis in a space that is known for strong, irrational sentiment swings, making it a helpful tool for timing market entries and exits. 6. Impact on Price VIX: Typically inversely correlated with stock prices. A rising VIX often accompanies a falling stock market, and vice versa. Crypto Fear and Greed Index: A sentiment indicator is not directly tied to price movements, but extreme readings can signal turning points or potential corrections in crypto prices due to market overreactions. If you have any questions, please reach out!
TVC:VIXEducation
by LisaNEdwards
11
Q4 Kickoff - US down, VIX Up, Oil Drama, China RipQuick video recap to highlight what's the latest and greatest in the markets. Oct 1 - Happy Q4 US Big Tech in "big red" today US Energy in "big green" today - thanks for a wild bid on USOIL China continues to rip "green" and it's playing catchup quickly US will have to deal with employment news, inflation news, earnings news, all before the US Election and Nov 7 FOMC Rate Decision (expecting another 25 bps cut) Major levels to the downside if there's a US market pullback, FOMC lows, gap fills, and up trendline levels (50 period SMA, 100 period SMA, 200 period SMA) but we'll see Stay frosty out there :) Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
2
Dollar Index Consolidation: Will NFP Trigger an Upside Breakout?Since its recent touch on the support zone back in August, the U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has entered a period of consolidation, characterized by multiple attempts to break through this critical support level. Despite several instances where the price briefly dipped below the technical support zone, each time, the market witnessed a strong reversal, with bulls stepping in to defend the level successfully. From my perspective, we are nearing a potential upside reversal, and the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday could serve as the catalyst for this move. Currently, 102 is the key level to watch for confirmation of an upward breakout. Should the DXY break above this threshold, the next reasonable target would be around 104, marking a significant bullish shift in momentum.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
15
Bitcoin Enters ‘Uptober’ After Exiting Q3 Flat: What to ExpectCrypto traders are keen to see another ‘Uptober’ — a term coined by the community to describe the outsized gains in Bitcoin prices for October. Historically, in eight of the last 11 Octobers the original cryptocurrency has pulled ahead big time. So what’s it gonna be this time? There’s a lot to unpack — let’s ride. Bitcoin prices BTC/USD signed off for September at just over $63,000 per coin, with a modest (by crypto standards) 8% rise . But if you zoom out to wrap up the third quarter, you’ll see that prices stayed flat, tight-lipped and straight up boring. Bitcoin barely realized a gain — it went up by less than 1% for the September quarter but seesawed like there’s no tomorrow. In true crypto fashion, the fire-breathing beast feeding on volatility went as low as $49,600 and as high as $70,000 — a wide gap of 40% from top to bottom. All who’ve been in crypto long enough are familiar with the stomach-churning volatility that can make even the most disciplined traders doubt their choices. Speaking of volatility, traders are now bracing for what’s historically shaping up to be a solid month for Bitcoin gains. October, dubbed by crypto faithful as “Uptober,” is already here and brings with it a whole new wave of expectations. Here’s why that is: October 2023 — Bitcoin was up 27% . October 2022 — Bitcoin was up 6%. October 2021 — Bitcoin was up 40%. October 2020 — Bitcoin was up 30%. October 2019 — Bitcoin was up 10%. October 2018 — Bitcoin was down 5%. October 2017 — Bitcoin was up 50%. October 2016 — Bitcoin was up 15%. October 2015 — Bitcoin was up 38%. October 2014 — Bitcoin was down 12%. October 2013 — Bitcoin was up 69%. What you see is that October performance is a thing — traders are already on the edge of their seats in anticipation of the next leg up. But before that, there’s a mosaic of data that needs to pan out. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data (drops October 4): The good old jobs report will show how many new workers joined the US economy in September. Fairly low expectations this time — Wall Street is eyeballing 144,000 new jobs, about the same as the previous month . The NFP figure will be complemented by the unemployment rate, expected to stay flat month-on-month at 4.2%. Consumer price index (drops October 10): US inflation is another big report that is likely to shake up the crypto landscape . For September, prediction gurus expect inflation to keep moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target from an August clip of 2.5% . Lower inflation is good for solidifying prospects of interest rate cuts. And that is super good for the broader investment world, cash flows and overall liquidity across markets. Retail sales (drops October 17): retail sales are a solid measure of consumer spending. The more people buy expensive watches and things they don’t necessarily need, the better reading this report will carry. In other words, a strong retail sales figure will breathe more confidence in investors looking to jam cash into risk assets (yes, crypto included ). All that good stuff is likely to shape the trajectory of Bitcoin prices. But — and maybe even more important in the long run — these three data dumps will help the Federal Reserve decide if it’s a good idea to chop down the interest rate and how much, following the super-sized 50-bps slash . Rate moves and broad monetary policy decisions are likely to have an impact on Bitcoin, which has been increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic winds. For the technical minds, there is an interesting technical analysis pattern that might be worth looking into. A descending parallel channel is in the works, tracing its origins back to March 14, 2024. Fun fact: that’s the all-time record high for Bitcoin when prices peaked at more than $73,000 a pop . Since then, prices have been gradually losing their momentum, painting lower highs and lower lows. The latest bottom (September 6), which has provided enough resistance for a solid bounce, is sitting at $52,500. The next potential leg up is expected to take the price all the way up to around $67,000 in the short term, while the next potential leg down could pressure prices to a fresh low of $51,500 in the medium term. As traders set their sights on "Uptober," excitement is in the air, but it's not all confetti and moon rockets. October has a track record of delivering some big numbers, yes. But keep in mind that it’s not just a monthly performance number — behind it is an underlying force that has powered the price. So, should you blindly trust in historical performance? You could. But more importantly, you’ll likely be better off by preparing for what’s coming.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
14
GOLD is Setting Up For LONGS! Prepare to BUY!Price is pulling back to the Daily +FVG, which is nested in the Weekly +FVG, which is intersected by the Swing High. Three strong confluences for a high probability LONG. Be patient, look for price to contact the POI, and then let your valid buy setup form. Let the rest unfold. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
20
Nvidia - Consolidation Before -50% Drop!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is preparing for the correction: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Nvidia is still creating pretty clear market structure and price action and therefore there is no reason to change direction or opinion. Following the previous cycles, a correction of roughly -55% is likely and Nvidia's recent consolidation is a first strong sign of bearish weakness. Levels to watch: $120. $60 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
48
The TradingView Show: Interest Rates and AI with TradeStationJoin us for our newest episode with David Russell , Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation . We’ll dive into the current market landscape, covering all of the following topics for traders: 1. Market Trends: We’ll provide detailed insights into major stocks and bullish market trends, focusing on META, NVDA, and the evolving landscape of Chinese stocks. Discover how hedge fund managers are navigating these markets and uncover other significant movements you might be missing. 2. Index Review and Interest Rates: Our analysis will dive into macro trends affecting the SPX and NDX, exploring the importance of major indexes. We’ll discuss how rising interest rates are influencing market behavior and the broader economic implications for investors. 3. Commodities: Get the latest updates on oil, especially in light of recent production cuts that are impacting prices globally. We’ll also discuss gold and silver prices, examining why gold has achieved an all-time high while silver remains undervalued and what that means for future trends. 4. Cryptocurrency: Take a closer look at Bitcoin’s recent performance. We’ll explore whether it is on the verge of forming a significant new trend and what factors are driving its volatility in today’s market. 5. Housing Market: Analyze current trends in the housing market and what lies ahead, especially as they relate to rising interest rates, advancements in AI, and productivity improvements. This segment will provide essential insights for anyone interested in real estate investments. And much more! We encourage you to ask questions and share your feedback in the comments. Now, some important links for you to explore and read: Explore TradeStation ideas on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com For important disclosure information regarding options, ETFs, and more, please visit: 1. www.tradestation.com 2. www.theocc.com 3. www.tradestation.com Thanks for watching and we'll be back live next month!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradingView
1
Bitcoin: 70K Objective Within Range.Bitcoin has pushed beyond the 64K resistance but is now hesitating with the appearance of an inside bar. If the high of the inside bar is cleared, that would be a momentum continuation signal which can see price push into the 67 to 69K resistance. If the low of the inside bar is cleared, a retrace can unfold which can take price back into the 63 to 64K area (old resistance/new support). The key to navigating this is WAITING for confirmation and having your parameters and expectations predefined. Reacting to market events is typical retail behavior most often a mistake. The illustration on my chart shows the scenario that I am anticipating over the coming week. (See my previous articles to see these play out). While there is NO way to know if price will follow this path, IF price action confirms, this scenario has a greater probability. I am able to identify these opportunities from carefully evaluating TREND and SUPPORT/RESISTANCE levels. I am simply FOLLOWING what the market is implying through price. I don't have to get overwhelmed with "fundamentals", and "news" and other propaganda because price factors in ALL the known information in the world in a given moment (Efficient Markets). If you understand this concept, it then becomes much easier to recognize opportunities and most importantly measure the associated RISK. The arrow on my chart points to a predetermined price area (63 to 64K) to watch for If reached. This would be the lowest risk/highest probability point if confirmation appears. Ideal for swing trades especially where reward/risk can reasonably be 2:1 or greater. The reward/risk component depends on how you define risk at the time of the signal (this is what I use Trade Scanner Pro for). You can also use the next support level or candle stick low which is better than nothing. What is also compelling about this situation is the changing interest rate environment. While the change will not have an instant to the moon effect, it will offer a more supportive environment over time. This will be ESPECIALLY important during pullbacks when support levels are tested. This charge also calls for a closer look at low priced small caps/alt coins because they are poised to benefit from the increasing money supply resulting from lower rates. NOW is the time to be looking to invest, NOT at all time highs. I will be talking more about this soon as well. How you use this information will mostly depend on your decision making structure. A seemingly more bullish environment does not guarantee trades/investments will work out. Although it does provide for a more forgiving market. Know your RISK before you enter any type of position and this can be defined by using information straight from your chart. For example if Bitcoin confirms a long at 64K, I automatically know risk on this time frame can be at least 1 to 2K points. From there, a profit objective and sizing regime can be worked out. If you are not this organized, do NOT risk real money until you have some kind of management or decision making structure in place. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
Downside Targets for CHF/JPY Amid Waning Swiss Franc AppealMarket Overview CHF/JPY is facing downward pressure as demand for the Japanese yen rises, coupled with the Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut interest rates to 1%. The Swiss franc has lost some of its allure as a safe-haven currency, while the yen is gaining traction due to increased risk aversion in the market. Technical Analysis CHF/JPY has reached a key support level at 168.676. Should this level be breached, downside targets include 168.170, 167.921, and 167.454. Both MACD and RSI indicators confirm selling pressure and suggest a continuation of the bearish trend. Conversely, if buyers manage to break through the resistance at 169.898, this could signal the end of the current downtrend and the potential for a bullish reversal.
Short
by Errante
2
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 67.14 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 65.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support. Take profit is at 72.15 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:USOILLong
by FXCM
5
Tesla: “We, Robot” Taxi of the FutureTesla has been in the spotlight in the U.S. stock market, driven by its remarkable performance in 2024 and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions. Tesla shares have shown recent growth of 2.45%, remaining a key player in the technology sector, even as the market's focus has begun to diversify beyond tech giants. Looking at last year's earnings progression in December versus this year's performance, Q1 2023 vs. 2024 earnings performance was clearly lower in the current year, Q2 2023 vs. 2024 was more positive than last year. The main catalyst for the company is the impending release of Q3 delivery figures, which are expected to be announced on October 2. Analysts anticipate that Tesla will report approximately 462,000 deliveries, which would represent a 6% increase compared to the same period last year. This growth is largely due to increasing demand in key markets, such as China, where government subsidies have helped boost sales. In addition to deliveries, Tesla is preparing to unveil its Robotaxi on October 10, at an event that promises to revolutionize the future of autonomous vehicles. Elon Musk has raised expectations by describing this launch as the most important since the unveiling of the Model 3. While Tesla has been a pioneer in the electric vehicle market, in the field of robotaxis it has lagged behind competitors such as Waymo, the Alphabet subsidiary, which currently leads the industry in the U.S. with more than 100,000 weekly trips in cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix. Despite the enthusiasm, many analysts suggest tempering expectations, as mass adoption of robotaxis is likely to take at least a decade due to regulatory hurdles and safety concerns. According to experts, Tesla must demonstrate concrete technological advances and provide a clear vision for the scalability of its robotaxis in the U.S. market. Meanwhile, other companies, such as Baidu in China and Cruise in the U.S., are also making progress in developing autonomous driving. Although the road to a large-scale robotaxi market is long, this sector is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with Tesla and Waymo as key players. In terms of its financial performance, Tesla has a solid “financial health score” of 3.0 out of 5.0, according to AI-backed model evaluations. This highlights its robust fundamentals and dominant position in the electric vehicle sector. However, the company also faces pressure from inflation and a challenging economic environment, which could affect consumer spending. The next few weeks will be crucial for Tesla. Investors will be watching for third quarter financial results and how the company responds to increasing competition and market conditions. Tesla's success depends not only on its ability to innovate, but also on its ability to navigate a rapidly evolving landscape in both electric vehicles and autonomous driving. Looking at the technical side, currently the RSI at 67.67% slightly overbought may extend above the channel its move in the direction of $275-$300 per share, recovering prices from June last year. I feel this a cyclical company it is possible that we may see a sharp correction subsequent to $185 if results do not match expectations which should match those of the previous quarter, according to prior years data. In summary, Tesla is at a crossroads where its ability to grow in the future will depend on how it adapts to market challenges and its ability to maintain its status as a leader in the electric vehicle industry. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ActivTrades
2
Five Market Correlations You Can UseAs a trader, I've discovered key market correlations that provide valuable insights. Here are 6 you can use: 1️⃣ US Dollar Index & Commodities (DXY & Commodities ): The US Dollar Index often moves inversely to commodities like gold and oil. Monitoring this correlation helps gauge potential moves in commodity prices based on the USD's strength or weakness. 2️⃣ S&P 500 & Volatility (SPX & VIX): The S&P 500 and the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) exhibit an inverse relationship. A rising VIX indicates higher market uncertainty, influencing my risk management decisions when trading the S&P 500. 3️⃣ Bond Yields & Currency Pairs (BondYields & Forex ): Strong correlations exist between government bond yields and currency pairs. Higher bond yields may lead to a stronger currency, and vice versa. This correlation helps in forex analysis and trade setups and we use it in our program's bias matrices. 4️⃣ Crude Oil & Transportation Stocks (CrudeOil & Transportation ): Crude oil prices and transportation stocks, like airlines and shipping companies, often move together. Understanding this correlation provides insights into both oil demand and economic trends. 5️⃣ Gold & Real Interest Rates (GOLD & InterestRates ): Gold is often influenced by real interest rates (nominal rates adjusted for inflation). When real rates are low or negative, gold tends to perform well as an inflation hedge. 6️⃣ USD/CAD & Oil Prices (USDCAD & Oil ): The Canadian dollar (CAD) is sensitive to oil prices due to Canada's significant oil exports. As oil prices rise, USD/CAD tends to fall, and vice versa. The Norwegian Krone (NOK) also exhibits a similar behavior at times. By recognizing these correlations, I make more informed trading decisions and anticipate potential market moves based on the pre session biases. I also keep a close eye on updated correlation matrices in case any have de-coupled recently. Utilize these insights in your trading arsenal to gain a competitive edge!
TVC:US10YEducation
by AlexSoro
4