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An Educational Journey into Technical Analysis with Dogecoin/USDIn this tutorial, we'll dive deep into the art of technical analysis using the Dogecoin USD chart as our canvas. You'll discover how to blend Fibonacci tools, Elliott Wave Theory, and the Wyckoff Method to forecast potential market movements. Whether you're new to trading or looking to refine your analytical skills, this guide will provide you with practical insights into identifying entry and exit points, understanding market phases, and preparing for future trends. Let's embark on this educational journey together to enhance your trading strategy toolkit. When in doubt, Zoom Out! Below I was looking at Arguments for a Significant Short Position Before the Continuation of the Bullish Trend and the Pursuit of New All-Time Highs Elliott Waves: From the bear market bottom at 4.5 cents, we started wave 1 and concluded with wave 5 at the current top. Following five waves, we expect an ABC correction. Waves A and B have been completed, and we are now in wave C. Fibonacci 1: Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension - From the all-time high (ATH) to the recent bear market bottom, then to the current 48-cent top. The 0.382 Fibonacci level suggests a target of 0.2130 for the upcoming drop, which I believe is necessary for liquidity ahead of the next upward movement. Fibonacci 2: Regular Fibonacci Retracement - From the bottom of wave 4 to the top of wave 5, the 0.618 level is at 0.235 cents. I've marked a green box between these two targets. See in the image below how Backtesting this strategy on the two previous cycles shows that before breaking ATHs, Dogecoin always hit this 0.382 Fib level! I use these 2 Fibonacci targets to place the green box between them and where I expect price to go in the newxt couple of weeks. Additional Observation: The green line below the 0.618 Fib retracement and above the 0.382 trend-based Fibonacci extension also marks a retest of the wave 3 high at 0.23 cents. Now that we've examined the macro perspective, let's Zoom In to the current action: Wyckoff Schematic: Check my previously published idea on Bitcoin, linked here, where Bitcoin is in a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1. Dogecoin seems to follow with Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2. I've added vertical lines for phase separation, a red resistance box, and a green support box. Link to Richard D. Wyckoff, his Method and Story www.wyckoffanalytics.com . ABC Pattern: Wave A from top to bottom is exactly 0.222 cents or -45.81%, suggesting wave C should be of similar magnitude. Wave B measures 0.1724 cents and 65.65% to the upside. Using an arrow tool, the 0.222 cent drop points exactly to the 0.382 Fibonacci target from the trend-based extension we did in the macro analysis, now highlighted in yellow. Link to chart. Zooming in on the 4-hour Chart: I've drawn another Fibonacci retracement just for wave B, colored in turquoise blue. Notably, the 1.272 Fibonacci extension aligns with our macro 0.382 Fibonacci target, now colored yellow for clarity. Speculations for Future Moves: Fibonacci Circle and bottom timing prediction: Drawn from A to B, this circle in orange might help us predict when we hit the green box target at the bottom. Considering that the A drop measures exactly 12 days and 4Hours I have added another vertical line now marking a timeframe of 5 days from Thursday 30 January to Monday 3 February 2025 This is speculative but worth watching. It includes also a weekend so a CME gap before weekend plus filling the week after could also be in play. Wyckoff Phases: According to earlier discussions, we're moving through phases A to E. I've added a vertical line where the Fib circle crosses our 1.272 and 0.382 Fib levels, suggesting we'll enter phase E on January 23, 2025, potentially concluding by February 2, 2025. Predictive Arrows: Blue arrows indicate possible future price movements based on current patterns. After hitting our target, I'll analyze again and publish a new idea with plans for breaking the ATH and targets for the anticipated bull market. Enough for now, as it's getting late. Give me a follow, share if you liked this analysis, and stay tuned for updates.
BINANCE:DOGEUSDEducation
by Candle_Styx
56
Using Volume to Validate Market MovesVolume is one of those metrics that often sits quietly at the bottom of your chart, unnoticed by many traders. Yet, it plays a critical role in understanding the market’s behaviour. Think of volume as the fuel behind price movements—without it, even the most promising breakout can fizzle out. But, just like with fuel, more isn’t always better. Today, we’re focusing on the simple volume histogram that appears at the bottom of most charts. While there are countless indicators built around volume—like On-Balance Volume (OBV) or the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)—the histogram is a straightforward, effective tool for gauging participation in the market. Let’s explore how to use it, how to put volume into context, and how it behaves with different price patterns, including the concept of volume divergence. Simple Volume Histogram Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Why Volume Matters (and Why More Isn’t Always Better) Volume measures how many shares or contracts change hands during a given period. When volume spikes, it signifies heightened interest—buyers and sellers actively engaging. However, it’s not as simple as “more volume equals better signals.” For instance, a breakout on high volume often reflects strong conviction, but it can also indicate exhaustion at the end of a trend. Conversely, a low-volume breakout might lack the interest needed to sustain the move. Understanding the relationship between volume and price action is key to avoiding false signals. A Simple Trick: The Volume Moving Average One of the easiest ways to contextualise volume is by applying a moving average to the volume histogram. Platforms like TradingView make this simple: double-click the volume histogram, select ‘Style,’ tick the Volume MA box, and adjust the average length under ‘Inputs.’ A 9-period moving average, for example, acts as a baseline. When volume spikes significantly above the average, it suggests increased participation and potentially more meaningful price moves. Conversely, volume below the average often reflects quieter market phases. Adding MA to Your Volume Histogram Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Volume Divergence: When Volume and Price Don’t Align Volume divergence occurs when price action and volume move in opposite directions, often hinting at weakening trends or potential reversals. Imagine an uptrend where the price makes higher highs, but volume decreases at each new peak. This divergence signals fading participation, suggesting the trend may be losing steam. On the other hand, if the price trends lower while volume rises, sellers could be gaining momentum, increasing the likelihood of further downside. Take the example below, where volume divergence on the FTSE 100 preceded a period of sideways consolidation. Volume Divergence: FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Patterns That Thrive on High Volume Certain price patterns rely on strong volume to confirm their validity. A classic example is a triangle breakout. As the price consolidates within the triangle, volume often contracts. When the breakout finally occurs, you want to see a surge in volume, confirming that participants are backing the move. Without it, the breakout might lack the conviction needed to sustain the trend. Patterns That Prefer Lower Volume Other patterns work best with subdued volume. A pullback within a trend is a great example. Let’s say a stock is in a strong uptrend and starts to retrace slightly. Ideally, you want to see declining volume during the pullback. This suggests the selling is more about profit-taking than aggressive distribution. Once the pullback completes and the trend resumes, volume should pick up again. If the pullback occurs on high volume, it could indicate stronger selling pressure, signalling that the uptrend might be in trouble. A Practical Example: DXY Pullback and Breakout Let’s apply these concepts to a real-world case. In October, the dollar index (DXY) formed a steady uptrend followed by a pullback, creating a descending channel or bull flag. During the flag formation, average volume declined, indicating reduced selling pressure. When the price broke out, volume surged to nearly triple the 20-day average—a clear signal of strong buying interest. This breakout led to a multi-week uptrend. DXY Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Final Thoughts The volume histogram is a simple yet invaluable tool for traders. By applying a moving average to identify volume trends and watching for divergences between price and volume, you can gain a clearer understanding of market dynamics. Volume isn’t just about how much activity is happening—it’s about when and how it aligns with price action. Whether you’re trading breakouts, pullbacks, or reversals, understanding volume can provide an essential layer of confirmation and help you spot potential warning signs. Keep in mind, volume is just one piece of the puzzle. But when used correctly, it can give you a better sense of whether a price move has the backing it needs to succeed—or if it’s running on empty. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Regency_Capital
12
Trump’s Memecoin Risks Giving the Industry a Bad Rap. Yes or No?Wait, what happened? The 47th US President last week rolled out his official “meme,” called $TRUMP. Over the weekend, it whipped up a market cap of roughly $20 billion. That’s more than AI server maker Super Micro SMCI or clothing giant H&M HMB . Over the weekend. Now it’s fanning concerns among crypto execs that Trump’s participation could hinder growth and give the market a bad rap. Let’s talk about that. It’s official! Donald Trump has launched a meme coin — the same ones that make lots of buzz, get tons of attention and may or may not result in froth that quickly evaporates, leaving hopeful buyers holding the bag. Trump’s token, aptly called “Trump Meme” TRUMPUSDT is now circulating across exchanges. Billions get sloshed around, getting pulled in but then gushed out. The meme’s valuation soared to $20 billion Sunday morning, flexing an increase of more than 1,000%, or 10X in less than a weekend’s time. Fully diluted valuation hit a staggering $75 billion. Disbelieving users probably had to wonder whether someone hacked into Trump’s accounts both on X and on his social media platform Truth Social. But it was all legit, coming from the man himself. “My NEW Official Trump Meme is HERE! It’s time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING! Join my very special Trump Community. GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW,” the post said . Oddly, there were some highly specific (and frankly sketchy) bits of text in the Terms and Conditions listed on the token’s website. The Trump tokens are not an investment, not an investment contract, not a security, and have “nothing to do with any political campaign or any political office or governmental agency.” Still, the Trump Organization is entitled to get revenue “derived from the trading activities” of these memes. The surprise launch appealed to retail traders who went on a dizzying buying adventure, hoping to ride out the gain train and get a piece of the gift that seemingly kept on giving. Since that $75-per-coin peak, valuation has come down by roughly 50%. It must be said that 80% of what you see going up is held by Trump and his companies CIC Digital, and a CIC co-owned entity called Fight Fight Fight LLC. (That’s what Trump shouted after he was grazed by a bullet at a rally in July.) Also, if you decide to participate and you end up holding the bag, the terms and conditions say you won’t be allowed to sue or participate in a class-action lawsuit against the company and indemnify the project against any claims. Apparently, the meme coin list got a new contender and Dogecoin’s top spot might be challenged. So much so that some crypto executives have started to frown upon Trump’s crypto participation, who obviously became an overnight crypto billionaire with this controversial launch. The most obvious transgression is the conflict of interest — the man empowered to narrate how markets are valued and regulated (including setting crypto policy) benefits directly from the sale of his own investment product. A reporter asked Trump to comment on his new endeavor earlier this week. “Well I don’t know if it benefited. I don’t know where it is. I don’t know much about it other than I launched it,” he said. “I heard it was very successful. I haven’t checked it. Where is it today?” Trump’s token was overshadowed by his wife’s meme coin. Called Melania MELANIAUSDT , the token also made its way to the top-traded coins but quickly lost momentum and the gains faded. The launch of the first lady’s token prompted Ryan Selkis, a Trump supporter and ex-CEO of prominent crypto research firm Messari, to chime in, saying whoever advised Trump to go ahead with the projects should be fired. “1. They don’t know what they’re doing. 2. They cost you a lot of $ and goodwill. 3. They don’t have your interests in mind,” said Selkis in a post on X. To many, especially the staid supporters of organic growth based on use cases and real-world applications, Trump’s foray into crypto through a meme is a speculative move that gives the industry a bad rap. “I think people will think meme coins are the foundation of the crypto industry,” said billionaire entrepreneur and crypto investor Mark Cuban. “It’s not. There are real applications that add value.” Cuban added that this launch looks like “a highly manipulated offering.” The criticism continued to trickle in. “There’s a general level of disgust,” said Michael Gayed, a market analyst. “I do believe this puts into question some of Trump’s credibility when we have a president-elect enrich himself just before inauguration and make a mockery of an entire ecosystem.” There’s also the other end of the spectrum. A Detroit pastor named Lorenzo Sewell (who gave a speech during Trump’s inauguration) followed in the President’s footsteps and launched his own meme coin. “I need you to do me a favour and go and get that coin in order for us to accomplish the vision that God has called us to do on earth,” he said in a video online. His token has washed out more than 93% of its value since its trading debut. What do you think? Is Trump’s crypto participation contributing to more market froth and only fueling the speculative aspect of trading? Or is there a deeper meaning behind? Comment with your thoughts below!
OKX:TRUMPUSD
by TradingView
130
Tempus AI Possible Partner for the Stargate Project in the USAAnalysis of Possible Surge in Tempus AI Stock Due to Project Stargate Introduction Tempus AI, Inc. has emerged as a key player in the health technology space, leveraging data science and artificial intelligence (AI) to develop precision medicine solutions. The company's focus on oncology, cardiology, and mental health, combined with its strong data-driven approach, has positioned it as a leader in the emerging field of AI-enabled healthcare. A possible surge in Tempus AI’s stock price is now being speculated, due to its potential involvement in Project Stargate, a new initiative spearheaded by President Donald Trump. Project Stargate promises significant investments and infrastructure development in AI, which could catalyze a favorable growth trajectory for Tempus. This analysis will explore the potential impact of Project Stargate on Tempus AI, considering both the direct and indirect benefits for the company. Additionally, the mention of prominent political figures like Nancy Pelosi purchasing Tempus stock adds an interesting layer to the speculative nature of this surge. --- Project Stargate Overview Project Stargate, as outlined by former President Donald Trump, aims to overhaul AI infrastructure in the U.S. The initiative seeks to foster partnerships between technology firms, including AI-focused companies like OpenAI, and businesses involved in critical infrastructure, such as data centers, power generation, and construction. The project’s goal is to drive advancements in AI technology, with a specific focus on enhancing U.S. competitiveness in this rapidly growing field. The strategic involvement of multiple high-profile organizations and the federal government indicates that Project Stargate is likely to have wide-reaching economic and technological ramifications. Key elements of the project include: -Infrastructure Investments: The construction and expansion of AI-driven data centers and related infrastructure. - Public-Private Partnerships: Strong cooperation between private companies and government entities, facilitating new technologies and business models. - Technological Advancements: AI solutions that push the boundaries of healthcare, cybersecurity, and national security. As a result, companies involved in the development and deployment of AI technology, particularly those in healthcare and data analytics, are poised to benefit significantly. --- Tempus AI’s Position in Project Stargate Tempus AI operates at the intersection of healthcare and AI, which makes it an intriguing candidate to potentially benefit from Project Stargate. The company’s focus on precision medicine using AI-driven diagnostics aligns well with the ambitions of Project Stargate to expand AI infrastructure. 1. Synergies with Healthcare AI Project Stargate is expected to fuel demand for AI infrastructure and innovations, particularly in sectors like healthcare. Tempus, which specializes in oncology, cardiology, and depression diagnostics, stands to benefit from both the increased focus on AI-powered healthcare solutions and the additional resources available through government-private sector partnerships. Given Tempus’s reliance on large-scale data analysis to build its precision medicine solutions, any acceleration in AI infrastructure could lower operational costs for Tempus while improving the capabilities of its platform. Enhanced AI infrastructure would likely lead to faster data processing, increased diagnostic accuracy, and the potential for more personalized treatments. 2. Expansion of Partnerships and Funding The potential for public-private partnerships, which Project Stargate promotes, could help Tempus secure additional government contracts or private sector collaborations. This influx of capital and resources could enable the company to scale its technology faster and expand into new medical areas beyond its current focus on cancer, cardiology, and mental health. 3. Alignment with National AI Strategy With AI being a major focus of Project Stargate, Tempus may find itself well-positioned within the broader national AI strategy. If the company becomes a key partner in helping build AI solutions for healthcare or other sectors, it could solidify its reputation as an industry leader, driving up stock demand and valuation. --- Nancy Pelosi’s Stock Purchase: A Political Angle The mention of Nancy Pelosi, a prominent U.S. politician, purchasing Tempus AI stock adds a speculative element to the situation. Pelosi’s involvement in the stock could be seen as a potential signal of confidence in Tempus AI’s future performance. Politicians often make investment decisions based on inside knowledge of forthcoming legislation, partnerships, or government contracts. Though speculation about Pelosi’s investment could generate increased media attention, it should be approached with caution. However, if Pelosi’s investment is tied to a potential announcement of government support or strategic alignment between Tempus and Project Stargate, it could amplify investor confidence and trigger a buying frenzy. --- Potential Catalysts for Stock Surge Several factors could drive a surge in Tempus AI’s stock price if Project Stargate moves forward: -1. Government Contracts and Funding: If Tempus is awarded government contracts under Project Stargate, particularly related to AI infrastructure or healthcare solutions, the company could see a significant increase in revenue and market capitalization. -2. Partnerships with Major Players: Any announcement of Tempus AI partnering with companies like OpenAI or other stakeholders in Project Stargate would likely signal strong growth potential and increase investor interest. -3. ncreased Demand for AI Healthcare Solutions**: As the U.S. government prioritizes AI advancements, healthcare applications could see substantial growth. Tempus could be a key beneficiary of this shift, leading to a surge in its stock price as market expectations align with actual developments. -4. Political Endorsement: If high-profile political figures continue to signal support for Tempus AI, either through public statements or stock purchases, it could bolster public perception and attract institutional investors. --- Risks and Considerations While there is substantial upside potential for Tempus AI, there are also risks to consider: - Dependence on Project Stargate’s Success: Tempus’s growth will be closely tied to the success of Project Stargate and its integration into the broader national AI ecosystem. If the project faces delays or fails to meet expectations, it could have negative implications for companies like Tempus. - Regulatory Risks: The healthcare industry is heavily regulated, and any change in regulatory policies could impact Tempus’s ability to grow at the expected pace. While AI infrastructure investment may mitigate some challenges, government policies could still create obstacles. - Market Volatility: The stock market, particularly tech and healthcare stocks, is inherently volatile. Any unforeseen global events or shifts in economic conditions could negatively affect Tempus’s valuation, regardless of Project Stargate. --- Conclusion Tempus AI stands at an exciting intersection of AI technology and healthcare, which could see its stock price surge due to its involvement in Project Stargate. The initiative’s focus on building AI infrastructure and fostering partnerships could provide Tempus with opportunities for rapid growth, enhanced funding, and access to cutting-edge technology. The involvement of high-profile political figures such as Nancy Pelosi adds an additional layer of speculation, with the potential for both public perception and market sentiment to play a significant role in the stock’s trajectory. However, investors should consider the risks associated with regulatory changes, market volatility, and the uncertain success of Project Stargate itself. Ultimately, if Tempus AI is able to capitalize on these emerging opportunities, it could see a substantial boost in both market visibility and stock price in the near future. For any questions or remarks kindly react here under the comments Greetings, Zila
NASDAQ:TEMLong
by ZILATRADES
11
Bitcoin: Don't be blind to the world (Trump inauguration)Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price. But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us. On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President. I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas! The crypto market - and Bitcoin especially - has been on a huge rally since Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in favour of cryptocurrencies last year. There’s a chance President Trump could mention Bitcoin in his inaugural speech but even if he doesn’t, the prospect of favourable regulation is broadly positive for Bitcoin - or if we’re more honest - the idea of better regulation could be enough justification to keep the crypto bull run going for now. Bitcoin On the weekly chart, we can see Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been trading sideways around the $100,000 level - with roughly $90,000 as support. But bigger picture it’s a huge uptrend and we want to trade in line with the trend (as always) Importantly - it just closed the week back over the critical $100K mark - and it did so with a bullish engulfing candlestick that engulfed the previous 3 weeks. As a reminder - where the week closed is more important than the high or low of the week - and a weekly close is more significant than a daily close. You can think of the closing price as the price that everybody agreed was the right price for that period. The final missing piece to the bullish breakout is a weekly close at a new record high. On the daily chart we are watching the broken trendline as well as the $100k level as support that needs to hold if the breakout is going to happen soon. But while the price trendline is not especially reliable with only two ‘touches’ or swing points the broken RSI trendline is much more significant and shows a big pickup in momentum that will be needed if the price is to break out. If the breakout does happen, the first barrier that needs to break is $110,000 but after that $120k then even $130k could come quite quickly given Trump’s inauguration this week. But - as always - that’s just how my team and I are seeing things, what do you think? Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request! Send us an email or message us on social media. cheers! Jasper
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by jasperlawler
11
Example of how to use the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- There was a question about how to select the selection point when using the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool, so I will take the time to explain the method I use. Since it is my method, it may be different from your method. - Before that, I will explain the difference from the general Fibonacci retracement tool. The Fibonacci retracement tool uses the Fibonacci ratio as the ratio to be retracement within the selected range. Therefore, the low and high points are likely to be the selection points. The reason I say it is likely is because the lowest and highest points are different depending on which time frame chart it was drawn on. Therefore, in order to use a chart tool that specifies a selection point like this, you must basically understand the arrangement of candles. If you understand the arrangement of candles, you can draw the support and resistance points that make up it and determine the importance of those support and resistance points. The HA-MS indicator that I am using is a more objective version of this. Unlike the published HA-MS indicator, several have been added. I do not plan to disclose the formulas of these added indicators yet. However, if you share my ideas, you can use them normally at any time. The selection point for using the current Fibonacci retracement tool is the point that the fingers are pointing to. In other words, the 1st finger is the low point, and the 2nd finger is the high point. One question may arise here. Why is it the position of the 1st finger? The reason is that it is the starting point of the current wave. Therefore, you can find out the retracement ratio in the current rising wave. In fact, it is not recommended to use the Fibonacci ratio as support and resistance. This is because it is better to use the Fibonacci ratio to check how much wave is being reached and how much movement is being shown in chart analysis. However, the Fibonacci ratio can be usefully used when the ATH or ATL is updated. - If the Fibonacci Retracement tool was a chart tool that found out the retracement ratio in the current wave, the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool can be said to be a chart tool that found out the extension ratio of the wave. Therefore, while the Fibonacci Retracement tool requires you to specify two selection points, the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool requires you to specify three selection points. That's how important it is to understand the arrangement of the candles. The chart above is an example of drawing to find out the extension ratio of an uptrend The chart above is an example of drawing to find out the extension ratio of a downtrend Do you understand how the selection points are specified by looking at the example chart? - The chart above is the chart when the 1st finger point is selected. The chart above is the chart when the 1-1 hand point is selected. When drawing on a lower time frame chart, you should be careful about which point to select when the arrangement of the candles is ambiguous. Examples include the 1st finger and the 1-1 finger. It may be difficult to select 1-1 and 1 depending on whether they are interpreted as small waves or not. The lower the time frame chart, the more difficult this selection becomes. Therefore, it is recommended to draw on a higher time frame chart if possible. The reason is that the Fibonacci ratio is a chart tool used to analyze charts. In other words, it is not drawn for trading. In order to trade, you trade based on whether there is support or resistance at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. - Thank you for reading to the end. I wish you successful trading. --------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by readCrypto
10
Behind the Curtain: Top Economic Influencers on ZN Futures1. Introduction The 10-Year Treasury Note Futures (ZN), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of the fixed-income market. As a vital benchmark for interest rate trends and macroeconomic sentiment, ZN Futures attract institutional and retail traders alike. Their liquidity, versatility, and sensitivity to economic shifts make them a go-to instrument for both speculation and hedging. In this article, we delve into the economic forces shaping ZN Futures’ performance across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we identify the most impactful indicators influencing Treasury futures returns. These insights can help traders fine-tune their strategies and navigate the complexities of this market. 2. Product Specifications Contract Size: The standard ZN Futures contract represents $100,000 face value of 10-Year Treasury Notes. Tick Size: Each tick corresponds to 1/64 of 1% of par value. This equals $15.625 per tick, ensuring precise pricing and manageable risk for traders. Margins: Approximately $2,000 per contract (changes through time). Micro Contract Availability: While the standard contract suits institutional traders, the micro-sized Yield Futures provide a smaller-scale option for retail participants. These contracts offer reduced tick values and margin requirements, enabling broader market participation. 3. Daily Economic Drivers Machine learning models reveal that daily fluctuations in ZN Futures are significantly influenced by the following indicators: Building Permits: A leading indicator of housing market activity, an increase in permits signals economic confidence and growth. This optimism often puts upward pressure on yields, while a decline may reflect economic caution, boosting demand for Treasuries. U.S. Trade Balance: This metric measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit typically signals improved economic health, leading to higher yields. Conversely, a widening deficit can weaken economic sentiment, increasing Treasury demand as a safe-haven asset. China GDP Growth Rate: As a global economic powerhouse, China’s GDP growth influences global trade and financial flows. Strong growth suggests robust international demand, pressuring Treasury prices downward as yields rise. Slower growth has the opposite effect, enhancing Treasury appeal. 4. Weekly Economic Drivers When analyzing weekly timeframes, the following indicators emerge as significant drivers of ZN Futures: Velocity of Money (M2): This indicator reflects the speed at which money circulates in the economy. High velocity signals robust economic activity, often putting upward pressure on yields. Slowing velocity, on the other hand, may indicate stagnation, increasing demand for Treasury securities. Consumer Sentiment Index: This metric gauges the confidence level of consumers regarding the economy. Rising sentiment suggests stronger consumer spending and economic growth, often pressuring bond prices downward as yields rise. Conversely, a decline signals economic caution, favoring safe-haven assets like ZN Futures. Nonfarm Productivity: This measures output per hour worked in the nonfarm sector and serves as an indicator of economic efficiency. Rising productivity typically reflects economic strength and may lead to higher yields, while stagnation or declines can shift sentiment toward Treasuries. 5. Monthly Economic Drivers On a broader monthly scale, the following indicators play a pivotal role in shaping ZN Futures: Net Exports: This metric captures the difference between a country’s exports and imports. A surplus indicates strong global demand for domestic goods, signaling economic strength and driving yields higher. Persistent deficits, however, may weaken economic sentiment and increase demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. 10-Year Treasury Yield: As a benchmark for longer-term borrowing costs, movements in the 10-Year Treasury Yield reflect investor expectations for economic growth and inflation. Rising yields suggest optimism about future economic conditions, potentially reducing demand for Treasury futures. Declining yields indicate caution, bolstering Treasury appeal. Durable Goods Orders: This indicator measures new orders placed with manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more. Rising orders signal business confidence and economic growth, often leading to higher yields. Conversely, a decline in durable goods orders can indicate slowing economic momentum, increasing Treasury demand. 6. Applications for Different Trading Styles Economic indicators provide distinct insights depending on the trading style and timeframe: Day Traders: Focusing on daily indicators like Building Permits, U.S. Trade Balance, and China GDP Growth Rate to anticipate short-term market movements. For example, an improvement in China’s GDP Growth Rate may signal stronger global economic conditions, potentially driving yields higher and pressuring ZN Futures lower. Swing Traders: Weekly indicators such as Velocity of Money (M2), Consumer Sentiment Index, and Nonfarm Productivity could help identify intermediate trends. For instance, rising consumer sentiment can reflect increased spending expectations, potentially prompting bearish positions in ZN Futures. Position Traders: Monthly metrics like Net Exports, 10-Year Treasury Yield, and Durable Goods Orders may offer a macro perspective for long-term strategies. A sustained increase in durable goods orders, for instance, may indicate economic expansion, influencing traders to potentially adopt bearish sentiment on ZN Futures. 7. Conclusion The analysis highlights how daily, weekly, and monthly economic indicators collectively influence ZN Futures. From more immediate fluctuations driven by Building Permits and China GDP Growth Rate, to longer-term trends shaped by Durable Goods Orders and the 10-Year Treasury Yield, each timeframe provides actionable insights for traders. By understanding these indicators and incorporating machine learning models to uncover patterns, traders can refine strategies tailored to specific time horizons. Whether intraday, swing, or long-term, leveraging these insights empowers traders to navigate ZN Futures with greater precision. Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we examine economic drivers behind another key futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by traddictiv
8
USDJPY - Rising Channels, Pullbacks, Double Tops & BOJ NewsToday we're looking at a potential bearish trading opportunity on the USDJPY. After a long bullish rally, followed by a lengthy period of consolidation in the form of a rising channel. The &USDJPY has violated the pattern to the downside & with the recent pullback, is giving us an opportunity to jump on the next potential move down. As we venture down to the hourly chart, we may have a potential double top to open our week which would be an excellent entry reason for getting involved. On the fundamental side of things, later this week the Bank of Japan will make an interest rate decision & word on the street is that they are considering a hike. How a lot will depend on what happens after President Donald Trump takes over, but if an interest rate hike from the BOJ were to happen it "should" mean Yen strength and confirmation for our bearish prediction. If you have any questions or comments please leave them below. And I hope you guys have an excellent week of trading. Akil
Short
by Akil_Stokes
20
The TrumpCoin Craze: What’s Really Going On?Yesterday, something truly bizarre happened in the world of crypto. Donald Trump—yes, that Donald Trump—launched his very own cryptocurrency, TrumpCoin ($TRUMP). At first, like everyone else, I thought his account had been hacked. I mean, launching a meme coin just days before his presidential inauguration? Come on... But nope, it’s 100% real. Verified. Like many others, I got curious and, let’s face it, greedy. So, I bought in. The result? I cashed out at a nice 3x profit, enough for a fun night out. But before we dive into the crazy market activity, let me clarify a couple of things: - I’m not a Trump fan. This isn’t about politics. - I don’t think this is a rug pull, at least not intentionally . It seems more like someone who doesn’t fully understand how crypto works decided to jump in. A Brief Timeline of Chaos TrumpCoin was announced on his social platforms, including Truth Social and X (formerly Twitter). Initially, everyone thought it was fake news. I mean, a meme coin with his name on it? Right before inauguration day? It screams “scam.” But soon after, major crypto news outlets confirmed its legitimacy. And then the madness began. Within hours: - Market cap: Over $14 billion at the time of writing(and climbing). - Trading volume: A jaw-dropping $11 billion in just one day. - Price swings: The coin hit a high of $3.30 before dipping below $1.50 and now is above $4. Trump’s company, CIC Digital LLC, reportedly holds 80% of the coin supply, making this a financial windfall for him—even if the project crashes. The Crypto Community Splits This move has divided the crypto space. On one hand, you have people who are treating $TRUMP like any other speculative asset. ( Hi, that’s me! ) On the other, there are folks who see it as a statement of loyalty to Trump. Then there’s a third group—the skeptics—who warn that this could end in disaster. The real problem? Newbies are piling in without understanding what they’re doing. The hype is pulling in people who don’t know a rug pull from a blockchain. They’re buying and buying, hoping to ride the wave, and are likely to get burned when the bubble bursts. Is This a Rug Pull? Let’s address the elephant in the room. With 80% of the supply in Trump’s control, the setup raises eyebrows. But is this an intentional scam? Probably not. If anything, this feels more like a PR stunt gone wild—a way to cash in on his fame and make a splash before returning to the White House. That said, the outcome could still be the same. At some point, the hype will die, the price will tank, and many will lose money. The bigger it gets, the harder it’ll fall. My Take: Enjoy the Ride, but Be Careful TrumpCoin is the epitome of crypto’s wild side: volatile, unpredictable, and more about hype than substance. If you’re diving in, know what you’re getting into. For me, it was a quick trade—buy low, sell high, and get out. But I worry about the inexperienced investors who are holding on, hoping for it to hit $10, $20, or even higher. So, here’s my advice: Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose. Take profits while you can. Remember, just because something is popular doesn’t mean it’s sustainable. Whether $TRUMP reaches a $25 billion, $50 billion market cap or crashes spectacularly, one thing’s for sure—it’s going to be one heck of a ride. Stay safe out there, and happy trading!
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
29
ADA - Time to buy again!As you can see, the price is forming two bullish patterns on the DAILY timeframe, If my view is correct, Cardano will rise to $1.45 . And if this pattern is correct and breaks, higher targets are possible. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Long
by CobraVanguard
12
Bitcoin Market Outlook: Rounding Bottom targets in focusHello everyone, It’s been a few weeks since our last Bitcoin update, and while much has unfolded, our core outlook remains unchanged—bullish momentum persists, with expectations for further rallies. Today, we spotlight a potential rounding bottom formation on BTC, a classic reversal structure signaling continued strength. This formation features three key elements: Rounding Bottom Base – The gradual curve in price, showing accumulation. Stop Wall – The critical resistance level to watch for a breakout. Landing Base – A support zone providing stability during the formation. Our chart provides a clear visualization of these elements, offering actionable insights for both mid-term and long-term positioning. As always, disciplined risk management remains essential. What’s your view on this setup? Share your thoughts below!
Long
by weslad
58
US dollar index remains elevated, but for how long?The US dollar index continues to show strength and with the potential reduction in the amount cuts this year by the Fed, there might be further strength of MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX . But could this be the case in the short-run? Let's dig in... TVC:DXY RISK DISCLAIMER 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
11
Trading BTC with a Solid Plan Is Crucial for Success—Here’s Mine🌟 In this video, I share a trade idea along with my detailed trading plan and we highlight why a well-structured strategy is 🔑 key to success. Discover how to trade BTC Bitcoin 🪙 using a trend continuation approach while leveraging TradingView's powerful tools and features to gain a real edge in the markets. 🖥️✨ Here’s what we’ll cover: 📊 Trend Analysis: A top-down review of market direction to identify opportunities. 📈 Market Structure & Price Action: Key insights into how price moves and behaves. 🎯 Trade Planning: Using higher timeframe support and resistance levels to set stop loss and target points. 🛠️ TradingView Features: Practical tools to refine your analysis and boost efficiency. This video is an in-depth guide to trading effectively with a proven strategy, enhanced by TradingView's unique capabilities. 🚀 Please remember, this is not financial advice. 📜
by fxtraderanthony
43
BITCOIN new ATHs !? BITCOIN new all-time highs ?! Hello ❤TV community 👋 The new year is still young and the bulls could really take off here ... Here with a bullish option and a WolveWave(WW) and the targets on the upside. 🖥Intraday chart (12h) and everything important 💡 Everything important in the chart 👀 💥bullish CYPHER Harmonic 👀 👉Volume analysis 👀💪 👉Daily MA50 re-test 👀🔥 🔥BITCOIN roadmap/outlook (from 27th february 2024) If you like this idea, please leave me a 🚀 and follow for updates 🔥⏰ Furthermore, any criticism is welcome as well as any suggestions etc. - You're also very welcome to share this idea. Have a nice evening & successful trading decisions 💪 M_a_d_d_e_n ✌ NOTE: The above information represents my idea and is not an investment/trading recommendation! Without any guarantee & exclusion of liability!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by M_a_d_d_e_n
31
Morning Routines of Successful Day Traders: It’s Not Just CoffeeIt's pretty busy right now in the market , so we figured why not pull you in for a breather and spin up an evergreen piece that’ll lay out some practical advice to our absolutely magnificent audience. This time we’re talking about routine, morning routine. The time of day when the majority of us fall into two buckets: those who rise and those who hit snooze until their phone falls off the nightstand. Day traders? They’re a different breed. Successful day traders aren’t rolling out of bed, rubbing their eyes, and clicking buy before their first sip of coffee. If you think trading is all instinct and luck, you’re in for a wake-up call. The best in the game have morning routines that look more like pre-game rituals – calculated, precise, and yes, sometimes superstitious. 🧐 Scanning the Ground Before Dawn Before the market bell even thinks about ringing, day traders are already glued to their screens. Futures markets? Checked. Pre-market movers? Analyzed. Global news ? Scanned twice, just in case something wild happened overnight to the Japanese yen . The market isn’t an isolated entity; it reacts to everything and the effects are widespread, spilling over from one asset class to another. Inflation data, gold prices, tech earnings, even the tweet that Elon Musk fired off at 3 AM (especially now with his unhinged political disruption). 📒 The Power of the Trading Journal A tried-and-tested trader’s morning doesn’t start with the news only. They crack open the sacred document – the trading journal . A quick review of yesterday’s trades is non-negotiable. What worked? What didn’t? Was there a panic sell at 10:05 that didn’t age well? Documenting trades might feel like high school homework, but the elite money spinners swear by it. It’s not about reliving the glory or shame of past trades – it’s about patterns. Spot the patterns, and you’re already ahead of 90% of the market. 🙏 Stretch, Meditate, and Keep Emotions at Bay Trading isn’t just charts and numbers. It’s a mental game. One bad trade can spiral into a revenge trade, and next thing you know, you’re shorting Tesla at market open because it "felt right." This is why the best day traders center themselves before the chaos begins. Some meditate. Others hit the gym. A few just sit quietly with their thoughts, which honestly might be the most terrifying option. Regardless of the method, the goal is the same: shake off the stress, start the day calm. Because calm traders make rational decisions. Anxious traders blow up their accounts. 🤖 Tech Check: The Ritual of Rebooting Imagine missing a perfect trade because your Wi-Fi blinked out or your trading platform decided to update at the worst possible time. For a day trader, technology isn’t just a tool – it’s the lifeline. A tech check is part of every serious morning routine (or at least weekly). Charts must load fast, platforms need to run smoother than a Swiss watch, and backup systems stand ready for action. Most traders have backups of their backups, in the cloud and on their hard drives. If their primary PC goes down, there’s a laptop on standby. If that dies, they have their phone. And if the phone crashes? Well, let’s just say there might be a tablet lurking somewhere nearby. 🛒 Watchlists: The Trader’s Grocery List Top dogs curate their watchlists daily, especially when it’s still the quiet of the day. It’s not just the usual suspects like Apple AAPL or Nvidia NVDA – it’s a finely tuned selection of stocks primed for movement. It could be big tech, auto stocks and even gold-linked stocks . Earnings reports , unusual volume, or a sudden spike in options activity – all of these feed the list. The goal is to narrow the focus. Because staring at 200 charts at once is a surefire way to miss everything important. 📅 Economic Calendar: The Absolute Mainstay Pro traders live by the economic calendar and are more likely to miss the birthday of a loved one than the Fed making an announcement. Is there a jobs report dropping ? The latest consumer prices are in ? These events are market movers, and day traders plan their sessions around them. Big data dumps can trigger wild volatility, and the last thing any trader wants is to be blindsided by a sudden spike in price out of nowhere. Think of the economic calendar as the market’s version of a weather forecast. You wouldn’t plan a picnic during a thunderstorm, and you shouldn’t casually load up on the British pound ahead of an expected interest rate decision. 🚀 It's Go Time: Visualization and Execution There’s a quiet intensity in the room as you prepare for the opening bell (unless you trade forex or crypto). The screens are glowing, the watchlist is set, and the coffee is (hopefully) still hot. But before the first trade, there’s visualization. Successful traders run through potential scenarios in their heads. “If stock X hits this level, I’ll enter. If it drops below Y, I’m out.” It’s like rehearsing lines for a play. When the market finally opens, there’s no hesitation – just execution. 🏁 Final Thought: It’s Not Magic, It’s Routine Day trading might look glamorous from the outside, but at its core, it’s a grind full of decisions, decisions, and decisions again. The traders who consistently win aren’t lucky; they’re disciplined. And it all starts with the morning routine. So, next time you see all those financial gurus, mentors and course-selling forex influencers on Instagram, picture this instead: a dimly lit room, a couple screens, a watchlist, and a trader calmly sipping their third cup of coffee. Because in this game, the calmest minds – not the flashiest – take home the prize.
Education
by TradingView
29