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Pullback resistance ahead?EUR/AUD is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the overlap support. Pivot: 1.6520 1st Support: 1.6363 1st Resistance: 1.6591 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
3
Riding the BNX Wave: Next Trade SetupsSince BNX surged an astounding +381% in just 3.5 days, it has rapidly reached a key high. However, the dramatic move on low volume has left the market in a tight range, raising questions about a potential correction. Let’s break down the current market structure and explore the key support and resistance levels, followed by specific trade setups. Looking Back: Market Structure & Trends BNX’s meteoric rise over a short period has captured attention, but such rapid gains often invite consolidation or a pullback. After hitting the key high, the price was tested and subsequently rejected, particularly on low volume. This rejection signals that the bullish drive may be exhausting, setting the stage for a possible downward correction. Since then, BNX has been trading in a narrow range, reflecting market indecision as traders await further direction. Key Support Zones & Confluences Primary Support Zone – Around $0.6: Moving Averages Confluence: The 21-period EMA and SMA on the 4-hour, weekly, and monthly charts are clustered between approximately $0.585 and $0.553. This convergence creates a robust support area where price is likely to find stability. Lower Timeframe Trend Insight: My beta indicator on the 15-minute chart, which marks the edge of the bullish trend, further reinforces this support level. Fibonacci Confluence: The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement sits at around $0.5426, lending additional support. The Fibonacci Speed Fan (0.5 level) aligns near $0.56, complementing the overall support picture. This confluence of technical factors makes the $0.6 zone a crucial area to monitor, as it represents a potential floor should the market trend lower. Resistance Levels & Confluences Key Resistance – The Recent High: Rapid Price Surge & Rejection: BNX’s swift ascent culminated in a key high that was subsequently tested and rejected. The rejection, especially on low volume, indicates that the upward momentum may be losing steam. Fibonacci Resistance: Notably, the price has also encountered the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $0.75, which acts as an additional layer of resistance. Psychological Resistance: The key high now serves as a significant resistance level, acting as a barrier that the price must overcome to resume its bullish trend. Potential Trade Setups Short Trade Setup Given the rejection at the key high and the low-volume consolidation, a breakdown from this level is anticipated. This scenario makes a short position attractive, as a failed test of the high could trigger further downward movement. Entry & Stop Loss (SL): Entry: Initiate a short position at the key high, followed by a rejection. Stop Loss: Place your stop loss just above the key high to mitigate risk. Target & Risk/Reward: Target: Aim for the primary support zone around $0.6, where multiple indicators converge. Risk-Reward Ratio: The setup targets a favourable risk/reward ratio of 3:1 or better, making it an appealing opportunity for traders. Long Trade Setup Despite the clear support confluence around the $0.6 area, entering a long position at this stage carries a less compelling risk/reward profile compared to the short trade. Entry & Stop Loss (SL): Entry: Consider a long entry if the price shows strength and decisively holds above the support zone. Stop Loss: Position the stop loss just below the support area to accommodate minor fluctuations. Target & Risk/Reward: Target: The target for a long setup would be the previous swing low. Risk-Reward Ratio: This trade offers a ratio in the range of 1:1 to 2.5:1, which is alright compared to the short setup.
BShort
by SiDec
8
SPX: Market Reflexivity & Fractal PatternsIn this idea I would like to walk you through some principles which I use to find and relate historical complexities within rhyming cycles. Market Reflexivity Market reflexivity is a concept introduced by George Soros that defies the traditional TA notion of efficient markets by revealing that price movements do not merely reflect fundamentals — they actively shape them. As prices rise, optimism fuels further buying, creating a self-reinforcing loop inflating bubbles. Conversely, declining prices trigger fear, accelerating downturns. Reflexivity explains why trends persist and why reversals can be abrupt, as self-sustaining cycles eventually reach a exhaustion point. To put it simply, there is a feedback loop between market participants’ perceptions and actual market conditions, suggesting that financial markets are not always in equilibrium because collective investor behavior actively drives price movements, which in turn influences future investor behavior. Feedback Loops Each massive rally eventually creates conditions that lead to overvaluation, resulting in sharp corrections. Self-Fulfilling Expectations Market participants, reacting to past price behavior, reinforce trends until a breaking point. Structural Adaptation Every major correction resets valuations, allowing for the next cycle to begin with renewed confidence and capital inflows. Practical Application of Reflexivity Compared to many tickers, SPX has exhibited relatively stable growth throughout history. Over the past 70 years, the most significant panic-driven decline occurred after its 2007 peak, with a 57% drop that defined a major cycle. Growth resumed in 2009, making this swing a key reference point for establishing historical relationships. I see the Dotcom and Housing crisis-induced declines as part of a broader complexity, shaped by prior long-term growth. The two cycles appear as they do because they stem from an extended structural uptrend, not just the 250% surge from 1994 to the bubble top, which lacked a significant preceding decline. Cause-and-effect logic suggests that these crashes were a reaction to a much larger uptrend that began in 1974. A 2447% rally provides a more compelling reason for mass panic and selling, as corrections of such magnitude are rare. Intuitively, the 2447% long-term upswing should have been preceded by a decline similar to the Dotcom and Housing crashes. This holds true, as the market experienced a nearly 50% drop after peaking in 1973 and 37% in 1968, following the same cyclical pattern of deep corrections leading to extended expansions. These corrections were relatively smaller than the Dotcom and Housing crashes because they are followed by a comparatively smaller 1452% rally from the end of WWII. Multi-Fractals Multifractals in market analysis describe the non-linear, self-similar nature of price movements, where volatility and risk vary across different scales. Unlike simple fractals with a constant fractal dimension, multifractals exhibit multiple fractal dimensions, creating varying levels of roughness. Benoit Mandelbrot introduced multifractal Time Series to refine the classic random walk theory, recognizing that price movements occur in bursts of volatility followed by calm periods. Instead of a single Hurst exponent, markets display a spectrum of exponents, reflecting diverse scaling behaviors and explaining why price action appears random at times but reveals structured patterns over different time horizons. This justifies viewing price action within its structural cause-and-effect framework, where micro and macro cycles are interdependent, while oscillating at different frequencies. Therefore, we will apply the building blocks independently from boundaries of Full Fractal Cycle. Since volatility varies, this reserves us the right to extract patterns with identical slope and roughness, and by method of exclusion relate to recent cycles starting from covid.
TVC:SPX
by fract
9
Tesla Stock Rattled as Insiders Dump Shares. What’s Going On?EV maker’s sales in Europe have made a sharp U-turn this year with some regions selling half the volumes from a year ago. Is Musk’s political ambition causing car buyers to look elsewhere for electric wheels? Tesla stock TSLA is off to a bumpy start of the year with 10% shaved off its market valuation since the first trading bell of 2025. It’s all likely tied to Elon Musk’s shifting focus from his electric-car giant and into US politics (and, some would say, beyond that and into European affairs). To make matters worse, key insiders and directors dumped tons of shares this month, cashing out cold hard dollars. Elon Musk’s brother, Kimbal Musk, who’s a Tesla board member, together with two other key figures, Robyn Denholm and chief financial officer Vaibhav Taneja, sold roughly 200,000 shares. Kimbal Musk offloaded 75,000 shares worth $27.6 million on February 6. Before that, on February 3, Denholm sold 112,390 shares worth more than $43 million. On the same day, Taneja parted ways with 7,000 shares worth $2.8 million. The share sale is happening at a time when it’s getting increasingly difficult for Tesla to keep its brand equity out of Elon Musk’s public image. In January, Musk was making headline after headline on the politics pages of big media outlets. His efforts to reshape the White House administration spilled over into interfering with UK politics (where he attacked UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer over his alleged involvement with “mass rapes in exchange for votes” ). The Tesla CEO also hosted a discussion on X with Germany’s far-right candidate Alice Weidel. It happened about a month before Germany’s federal election on February 23. The live event pulled in roughly 100,000 streamers and sparked a debate over whether it was right to give a free platform to a far-right political party of a foreign country. There’s also Musk’s gesture likened to a Nazi salute he pulled off at Trump’s inauguration — that one really turned heads globally. Enough politics, let’s dive into the numbers. Tesla sales were shockingly bad in January. All around Europe, car buyers opted for cheaper Chinese alternatives in a sea of looming competition in the auto industry . In the UK, sales dipped about 8% from last year’s January. Chinese EV maker BYD BYD saw a massive jump by 550% to 1,614 cars sold. In Germany, sales of Tesla vehicles dropped 60%, while BYD sales rose 69%. France logged a 63% decline in sales of Tesla while Spain saw the steepest drop of 75%. Norway registered a 38% drop in Tesla sales while Tesla’s market in Sweden shrunk 44%. In China, where Tesla commands a towering presence, sales were down 11.5% in the first month of 2025. Moving outside Europe and across the Atlantic — California marked a decline in Tesla sales to the tune of 11.6%. It was the only carmaker with tumbling sales in the state. "All of the decrease in the state market last year was attributable to Tesla, which had an 11.6 percent decline," the California New Car Dealers Association said. "Registrations for all other brands increased 1.4 percent." By the looks of it, Tesla isn’t in a good place fundamentally and shares are down 28% from their record high in December. It’s also coming from a pretty battering fourth quarter where profits plunged 71% while sales barely made it above the flatline with a 2% growth year over year. Do you believe Tesla’s fortunes are tied to Elon Musk’s ventures into politics? And if you had to choose, are you long or short Tesla? Share your thoughts below!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradingView
72
Learn why the Nasdaq 100 could be about to soarThe Nasdaq 100 is showing an ascending triangle pattern, suggesting a breakout toward 23,100. Trade war concerns with Mexico and Canada have eased, while China has worked around tariffs by shifting production to other countries. A break above 21,962 could push prices up 5.3%, but rising inflation near 2.9% might force the Fed to consider rate hikes. Jerome Powell’s testimony tomorrow will give us a better idea of what’s next for markets. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:NAS100Long
by ThinkMarkets
10
Foundations of Mastery: 2025 Mentorship Begins!📢 Welcome to the 2025 Mentorship Program! Greetings, Traders! This is the first video of the 2025 Mentorship Program, where I’ll be releasing content frequently, diving deep into ICT concepts, and most importantly, developing structured models around them. My goal is to help you gain a deeper understanding of the market and refine your approach to trading. Before we get started, I want to take a moment to speak to you directly. 💭 No matter where you are in your trading journey, I pray that you achieve—and even surpass—your goals this year. 📈 If you’re striving for consistency and discipline, may you reach new heights. 💡 If you’ve already found success, may you retain and refine your craft—because growth never stops. 🎯 If you’re just starting out, I pray you develop patience, discipline, and above all, accountability—because true progress comes when we own our failures and learn from them. 🔥 If you’ve been trading for years but still struggle with consistency, do not give up. The greatest adversity comes when you’re closest to success. Stay disciplined, stay dedicated, and keep pushing forward. Above all, let this be a year where we grow together—not just as traders, but as individuals. May we foster humility, respect, and a learning environment where both experienced and new traders can share knowledge and thrive. 🙏 I pray over these things in the name of Jesus. Amen. Let's have a great year! The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by The_Archi-tect
18
Sector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingViewSector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingView Overview Sector rotation is an investment strategy that involves reallocating capital among different sectors of the economy to align with their performance during various phases of the economic cycle. While academic studies have shown that sector rotation does not consistently outperform the market after accounting for transaction costs, it remains a popular framework for portfolio management. This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to analyzing sector rotation and identifying leading and lagging sectors using TradingView . Understanding Sector Rotation and Economic Cycles The economy moves through distinct phases, and each phase tends to favor specific sectors: 1. Expansion : Rapid economic growth with rising consumer confidence. - Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK , Consumer Discretionary AMEX:XLY , Industrials AMEX:XLI 2. Peak : Growth slows, and inflation may rise. - Leading Sectors: Energy AMEX:XLE , Materials AMEX:XLB 3. Contraction : Economic activity declines, and unemployment rises. - Leading Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU , Healthcare AMEX:XLV , Consumer Staples AMEX:XLP 4. Trough : The economy begins recovering from a recession. - Leading Sectors: Financials AMEX:XLF , Real Estate AMEX:XLRE Step 1: Use TradingView to Monitor Economic Indicators Economic indicators provide context for sector performance: GDP Growth : Signals expansion or contraction. Interest Rates : Rising rates favor Financials; falling rates benefit Real Estate. Inflation : High inflation supports Energy and Materials. Step 2: Analyze Sector Performance Using Relative Strength Relative Strength RS compares a sector's performance against a benchmark index like the SP:SPX This helps identify whether a sector is leading or lagging. How to Calculate RS in TradingView Open a chart for a sector TSXV:ETF , such as AMEX:XLK Technology. Add SP:SPX as a comparison symbol by clicking the Compare ➕ button. Analyze the RS line: - If RS trends upward, the sector is outperforming. - If RS trends downward, the sector is underperforming. Using Indicators e.g.: You may add the Sector Relative Strength indicator from TradingView’s public library. This tool ranks multiple sectors by their relative strength against SP:SPX Additionally, you can use the RS Rating indicator by @Fred6724, which calculates the Relative Strength Rating (1 to 99) of a stock or sector based on its 12-month performance compared to others in a selected index. Example In early 2021, during economic recovery, AMEX:XLK 's RS rose above SP:SPX , signaling Technology was leading. Step 3: Validate Sector Trends with Technical Indicators Technical indicators can confirm sector momentum and provide entry/exit signals: Moving Averages Use 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages SMA. If a sector TSXV:ETF trades above both SMAs, it indicates bullish momentum. Relative Strength Index RSI RSI > 70 suggests overbought conditions; <30 indicates oversold conditions. MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence Look for bullish crossovers where the MACD line crosses above the signal line. Example During the inflation surge in 2022, AMEX:XLE Energy traded above its 200-day SMA while RSI hovered near 70, confirming strong momentum in the Energy sector. Step 4: Compare Multiple Sectors Simultaneously TradingView allows you to overlay multiple ETFs on one chart for direct comparison: Open AMEX:SPY as your benchmark chart. Add ETFs like AMEX:XLK , AMEX:XLY , AMEX:XLU , etc., using the Compare tool. Observe which sectors are trending higher or lower relative to AMEX:SPY Example If AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLY show upward trends while AMEX:XLU remains flat, this indicates cyclical sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary are outperforming during an expansion phase. Step 5: Implement Sector Rotation in Your Portfolio Once you’ve identified leading sectors: Allocate more capital to sectors with strong RS and bullish technical indicators. Reduce exposure to lagging sectors with weak RS or bearish momentum signals. Example During post-pandemic recovery in early 2021: Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK and Industrials AMEX:XLI Lagging Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU Investors who rotated into AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLI outperformed those who remained in defensive sectors like AMEX:XLU Real-Life Case Studies of Sector Rotation Case Study 1: Post-Pandemic Recovery In early 2021, as economies reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns: Cyclical sectors like Industrials AMEX:XLI and Financials AMEX:XLF outperformed due to increased economic activity. Defensive sectors like Utilities AMEX:XLU lagged as investors shifted away from safe havens. Using TradingView’s heatmap feature , investors could have identified strong gains in AMEX:XLI and AMEX:XLF relative to AMEX:SPY Case Study 2: Inflation Surge in Late 2022 As inflation surged in late 2022: Energy AMEX:XLE and Materials AMEX:XLB outperformed due to rising commodity prices. Technology AMEX:XLK underperformed as higher interest rates hurt growth stocks. By monitoring RS lines for AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XLB on TradingView charts, investors could have rotated into these sectors ahead of broader market gains. Limitations of Sector Rotation Strategies Transaction Costs : Frequent rebalancing can erode returns over time. Market Timing Challenges : Predicting economic cycles accurately is difficult and prone to errors. False Signal s: Technical indicators like MACD or RSI can produce false positives during volatile markets. Historical Bias : Backtested strategies often fail when applied to future market conditions. Conclusion Sector rotation is a useful framework for aligning investments with macroeconomic trends but should be approached with caution due to its inherent limitations. By leveraging TradingView ’s tools, such as relative strength analysis, heatmaps, and technical indicators, investors can systematically analyze sector performance and make informed decisions about portfolio allocation. While academic research shows that sector rotation strategies do not consistently outperform simpler approaches like market timing or buy-and-hold strategies, they remain valuable for diversification and risk management when used judiciously.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradeVizion
9
Does McDonald’s Chart Look Tasty Ahead of Monday’s Earnings?Legendary American fast-food chain McDonald's NYSE:MCD will release its fourth-quarter results Monday (Feb. 10). What does technical and fundamental analysis say about whether MCD stockholders will deserve a break that day? Let’s see: McDonald’s Fundamental Analysis As I write this, analysts expect the "Golden Arches" to post $2.86 in adjusted earnings per share for the quarter on roughly $6.5 billion of revenue. Those numbers, if realized, would compare to $2.95 in adjusted EPS on $6.4 billion in revenue for the year-ago period. That would represent sales growth of only 1%, so analysts aren’t really expecting much. In fact, 17 of the 31 sell-side analysts that I found that cover the stock have cut their earnings estimates since the current quarter began, while none have revised their forecasts higher. Still, Wall Street might watch more closely this time around at McDonald’s comparable-store sales, which have sagged of late. Total comparable sales fell 1.5% year over year during the third quarter, and that came after a 1% y/y decline in the second quarter. Hmm ... two successive quarters of negative comp-sales growth after going years without seeing any kind of quarterly contraction. The blame? International markets have turned on McDonald's. Performance outside of the United States has been far worse than domestic performance has been. That hasn’t helped MCD’s stock price, which has surrendered about 9% of its value since peaking in mid-October just ahead of the third-quarter earnings release. McDonald’s Technical Analysis But what if Mickey D's posts positive fourth-quarter comp-sales growth next week? I mean, I don't have a tip on this, but the stock’s chart as of Wednesday afternoon (Feb. 5) was showing a technical set-up for a positive surprise: Readers will see that MCD is trying to break out of a so-called “falling wedge” pattern, which is historically a pattern of bullish reversal. What we see above is that the shares have found help close to $280.40, marked by the middle gray horizontal line above. (MCD closed at $294.36 Thursday.) That’s the 50% retracement level of McDonald’s late-June through mid-October rally, which was running along what was at the time the stock's 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a red line above). Meanwhile, McDonald’s 50-day SMA (the blue line above) has acted as resistance for the stock, with a $291 pivot point. But look to the left of the recent action and what do we see? An unfilled gap that would require a tick at $313 or above in order to completely fill it in. You know what they say about unfilled gaps, right? “They don't always fill -- but they usually do.” Looking elsewhere on the above chart, there’s nothing to be discerned from the Relative Strength Index (above the chart), which is neutral. However, look at the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) at the bottom of the above chart. No, it's not postured bullishly -- at least not yet. But the histogram of the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with blue bars) is above zero, while the 12-day EMA (the black line) is above the 26-day EMA (the gold line). Those two lines just have to get themselves above zero for this set-up to look truly bullish. The Bottom Line While nothing is certain, the chart above does suggest that McDonald’s could be ready to make a move -- potentially upward. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in MCD at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NYSE:MCD
by moomoo
5
CRASH - CRASH - CRASH - Don't believe a word of it...I created this video because I'm seeing a bunch of content/videos where everyone is suddenly calling for a CRASH. and I laugh about it. If you want to believe the markets are going to CRASH - go for it. Sell everything. Bet the farm on the CRASH. Leverage your house and everything you own to bet on the CRASH. It's not going to happen soon. My research is very clear. I believe the first opportunity for a deep (more than 25-35%) market pullback will happen after late 2029 and into 2030. Until then, we are going to see moderate pullbacks in a very solid uptrend. Watch this video and learn why real research and modeling systems don't react to the Crash-Dummies that continually push out CLICK-BAIT. It's time to get real about your trading and investing. If you are following someone who continually calls for a market crash - good luck. At some point, you are going to come to the realization they are wrong 90% of the time. Try to find someone you trust who provides clear, timely, and ACCURATE forecasts. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
FX:NAS100Long
by BradMatheny
64
The Leap by CME Group: TradingView ShowWelcome back, traders! In today’s episode of The TradingView Show, we’re joined by Craig Bewick, Senior Director of Client Development and Sales at CME Group. With nearly 30 years of experience in futures and options, Craig has a wealth of expertise, from risk management and technology at CBOT and CME to product development and client engagement. In this episode, we’re diving into The Leap – a month-long, risk-free trading challenge that pits global traders against each other to maximize profits on a special paper-trading account. This is your time to learn futures and explore sophisticated trading strategies for cash prizes without needing to deposit anything. This round focuses exclusively on futures trading, with some of the most actively traded CME Group contracts at the core of the competition. Traders will be going head-to-head on assets like crude oil, gold, Bitcoin, and equity indices – a prime opportunity to refine your futures strategies and get hands-on with the dynamics of the market. As for prizes, there’s something for everyone: 250 awards, including cash and plan extensions. Let’s take a closer look at this time’s spoils. 1st place — $3,000 2nd place — $1,500 3rd place — $1,200 4th place — $1,000 5th place — $800 Places from 6th to 25th — $500 Places from 26th to 50th — $300 Places from 51st to 250th — 6 more months of your current plan About CME Group CME Group is the world's leading derivatives marketplace offering active traders access to futures and options across equities, commodities, crypto, FX and rates. With micro contracts, traders can gain precision and more control over their exposure, accessing more trading opportunities. About CME Group Education Whether you’re experienced at trading or building your foundation of knowledge, CME Group provides free education courses and tools that can help you stay ahead. Search for CME Institute or click on the link in the show description: www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingView
6
Understanding Fibonacci ExtensionsUnderstanding Fibonacci Extensions Have you ever noticed that market movements often occur in repeatable patterns? Well, that’s where Fibonacci extensions come into play. Join us in this article as we dive into the world of Fibonacci extensions and discover how they can be a strong addition to your trading arsenal. A Primer on Fibonacci Ratios Fibonacci ratios originate from the Fibonacci sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34). The key ratio, known as the Golden Ratio, is approximately 1.618. This is calculated by dividing a number in the sequence by its immediate predecessor (e.g., 34 ÷ 21 ≈ 1.619). Conversely, dividing a number by the next number yields approximately 0.618 (e.g., 21 ÷ 34 ≈ 0.618). In trading, these ratios are used to identify potential support and resistance levels through Fibonacci retracements and extensions: - Fibonacci Retracements. These indicate where the price might pull back within an existing trend. Common retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. They are derived from the ratios between numbers in the sequence and are applied to measure potential correction points. - Fibonacci Extensions. These project potential price targets beyond the current range. Key extension levels include 100%, 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. They are calculated by extending the Fibonacci ratios past the 100% level to anticipate where the price might move following a retracement. Note that these ratios can be expressed as either integers or percentages, e.g. 0.618 or 61.8%. What Are Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions (also known as Fibonacci expansions or Fib extensions) are a technical analysis tool that allows traders to determine potential levels of support and resistance for an asset’s price. Like regular support and resistance levels, they are considered as areas of interest rather than where the price will turn with pinpoint precision. They’re most frequently used to set profit targets, although they can also be used to find entries. Fibonacci extensions can be applied to any market, including forex, commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, and more, and work across all timeframes. While not foolproof, using the Fibonacci extension tool combined with other forms of technical analysis might be an effective way to spot potential reversal points in financial markets. Fibonacci Retracements vs. Extensions Both Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Golden Ratio, but they are used to measure different things in the market. The former shows support and resistance levels during a pullback from a larger move. The latter measures the potential levels of support and resistance for an asset's price after a pullback has occurred. As shown in the chart above, the Fibonacci retracement tool can be applied to identify where the price may pull back to – 50% in this scenario. Then, the Fibonacci extension tool is used to plot where the price could end up beyond this pullback. The 100% and 161.8% levels posed significant resistance, causing the price to reverse. It’s easy to see how both tools can be used in conjunction to build a strategy. Generally speaking, traders tend to enter on a pullback to one of the key retracement levels, and then take potential profits at the extension levels. However, either tool can be used to find areas suitable for entries and exits. Fib Extensions: How to Use Them in a Trading Strategy If you’re wondering how to use Fib extensions in your own trading, here are the steps you need to follow. - Click to set the first point at a major swing low if expecting bullishness or swing high if expecting bearishness. - Place the second point at a swing in the opposite direction. - Put the third point at the low of the pullback if a bullish move is expected or the high if a bearish move is expected. That’s it! You now have an idea of where price may reverse as the trend progresses, allowing you to set profit targets or plan entries. You can also double-click the tool to adjust it to your preferences, like removing certain levels and changing colours. Bullish Example In this example, we have a swing low (1) followed by a swing high (2) that makes a retracement (3). These three points are all we need to plot a Fibonacci extension. Notice that the 138.2% level didn’t hold, showing that price isn’t always guaranteed to reverse in these areas. However, the wicks and sustained moves lower at the 100% and 161.8% areas gave traders confirmation that a reversal might be inbound. Bearish Example Here, we can see that each of the three areas prompted a pullback. Some traders might not consider the 138.2% area valid to trade. However, the most common way to get around this is to look for confirmation with a break of the trend, as denoted by the dotted line between extensions. Once the price gets beyond that swing high (intermittently breaking the downtrend), traders have confirmation that what they’re looking at is likely the start of a reversal. Some traders believe that if the price closes beyond a level, it’ll continue progressing to the next area. While this can sometimes be the case, it can just as easily reverse. Here, the price briefly closed below the 161.8% level before continuing much higher. How Can You Confirm Fib Extensions? While Fibonacci extensions suggest potential areas where price movements may reverse or stall, traders often seek additional confirmation to enhance their confidence in these levels. Here are some methods traders typically use to validate Fib extension levels. - Confluence with Other Fibonacci Levels. Traders can look for alignment between Fibonacci extensions and retracements from different timeframes or price swings. This overlap may indicate a more significant level where the price could react. - Support and Resistance Zones. If a Fibonacci extension level coincides with established support or resistance areas on the chart, it can reinforce the likelihood of a market response at that point. - Candlestick Patterns. Observing specific candlestick formations, such as doji, hammer, or engulfing patterns at Fibonacci extensions, can provide insights into potential reversals or continuations. - Technical Indicators. Incorporating indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD can help confirm the validity of a Fibonacci extension level. For example, if the RSI indicates overbought conditions at a key extension level, traders might anticipate a pullback. - Trendlines and Chart Patterns. Aligning Fibonacci extensions with trendlines or chart patterns like the Head and Shoulders can offer additional confirmation. Traders often find that extension levels intersecting with these tools carry more significance. - Volume Analysis. An increase in trading volume near a Fibonacci extension level may suggest stronger market interest, potentially validating the importance of that level. - Multiple Timeframe Analysis. Traders might analyse Fibonacci extensions across various timeframes to identify consistent levels of interest. A level that appears significant on both charts could be considered more reliable. - Market Sentiment and News Events. While primarily technical, acknowledging fundamental factors such as economic news or market sentiment can help traders assess whether a Fibonacci extension level might hold or be surpassed. Limitations of Fibonacci Extensions Fibonacci extensions are valuable for projecting potential price targets, but they come with limitations that traders should consider. Understanding these can lead to more informed use within a trading strategy. - Lack of Confidence in Price Movements. While based on mathematical ratios, Fibonacci extensions don't account for unexpected market events like economic news or geopolitical developments that can significantly impact prices. - Subjectivity in Point Selection. The effectiveness of extension levels hinges on correctly identifying swing highs and lows. Different traders may choose varying reference points, leading to inconsistent levels and interpretations. - Ineffectiveness in Certain Market Conditions. In sideways or highly volatile markets, prices may not respect Fib extensions, reducing their reliability as indicators of support or resistance. - Conflicting Signals Across Timeframes. Extension levels vary between different timeframes, potentially causing confusion and conflicting signals in analysis and decision-making. - Overreliance on Technicals. Focusing solely on Fib extensions might cause traders to overlook other critical technical indicators or fundamental factors influencing the market. - Unnatural Price Movements. Widespread use of Fibonacci levels can lead to price reactions simply because many traders expect them, creating artificial support or resistance that may not hold. - Psychological Biases. Traders might experience confirmation bias, seeing what they expect at Fib levels, which can lead to misguided trading decisions. Making the Most of Fibonacci Extensions By now, you may have a decent understanding of what Fib extensions are and how to use them. But how do you make the most out of Fibonacci extensions? Here are two points you may consider to improve your trading strategy. - Look for confirmation. Instead of blindly setting orders at extension levels, you can look for price action confirmation that the price is starting to reverse at the area before taking potential profits or entering a position. You could do this by looking for breaks in the trend, as discussed in the example above. - Find confluence. Similarly, you can use other technical analysis tools like trendlines, indicators like moving averages, or even multiple Fibonacci extensions, to give you a better idea of how price will likely react at a level. Your Next Steps Now, it’s time to put your understanding to the test. Spend some time practising how to use Fibonacci extensions and try backtesting a few setups to see how you could get involved in a trade. Once you feel you have a solid strategy, open an FXOpen account to start using your skills in the live market. In the meantime, why not try exploring other Fibonacci-related concepts, like Fibonacci retracements and harmonic patterns? Good luck! FAQ How Can You Use Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions help traders identify potential future support and resistance levels beyond the current price range. To use them, traders select three points: the start of a trend, its end, and the retracement point. They then apply the Fibonacci extension tool to project where the price may move following a retracement. How Should You Draw Fibonacci Extensions? The process starts with choosing the trend-based Fib extension tool in your charting software. Then, the next step is to select the swing low/high (start of the trend), then the swing high/low (end of the trend), and finally the retracement low/high. The tool will display extension levels indicating possible future price targets. What Is the Difference Between Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions? Fibonacci retracements identify potential support and resistance levels during a price pullback within an existing trend. Extensions, on the other hand, project levels beyond the current price range, indicating where the price might move after the retracement. Retracements focus on corrections; extensions focus on trend continuations. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
8
Are You a Technical or Fundamental Trader? (And Why It Matters)Financial markets are a battleground of opposing forces: buyers vs. sellers, bulls vs. bears, diamond hands vs. paper hands. But one of the oldest rivalries in trading doesn’t involve price movements at all — it’s the ongoing feud between technical and fundamental traders. One side believes the charts hold all the secrets (you, maybe?), while the other insists that cold, hard data dictates market direction (you, maybe?). In this Idea, we break down the two and ask: which side are you on? 📈 The Chartists: The Lost Art of Tape Reading Technical traders are the wizards of the candlestick, seeing patterns where others see chaos. To them, a moving average isn’t just a squiggly line — it’s guidance. Fibonacci levels ? More sacred than grandma’s secret pie recipe. They don’t care if a company just launched the greatest product of the century — if the RSI says it’s overbought, they’re out. Technical analysis thrives on one simple principle: price action reflects all available information and hints at the next possible move. Instead of diving into earnings reports or economic data — the fundamental traders’ bread and butter — technical traders study past price movements, volume, and momentum indicators to predict the next leg up or down. They’re the ones glued to their TradingView charts, eyes darting between support and resistance levels, waiting for the perfect breakout. 💸 The Fundamentalists: Betting on Real-World Events Fundamental traders scoff at the idea that lines on a chart can predict the future. Instead, they dig into earnings reports , economic calendars , and all sorts of reports and data. They believe markets, like everything else in life, move based on value, supply and demand, and macroeconomic forces—not just on price action. To them, a stock isn’t just a ticker symbol; it’s a business with revenues, expenses, and growth prospects. If they’re trading forex , they’re looking at interest rates USINTR and inflation reports USCPI , not head-and-shoulders patterns. The goal? To determine an asset’s intrinsic value and bet on it going up or down, ideally running ahead of the pack. If a company’s earnings are strong, like Spotify’s SPOT latest earnings figures , they buy—regardless of what a stochastic oscillator says. And vice versa, if a company’s earnings are weak, like Google parent Alphabet’s GOOGL latest showing , they sell. 👉👈 Who’s Right? Both, depending on who you ask. Technical traders argue that prices move in patterns, and those patterns repeat. Fundamental traders counter that real-world events drive prices, and charts are just a delayed reflection of reality. The truth may actually be somewhere in the middle — markets are a mix of both. Even the most die-hard fundamentalist will glance at a chart before making a trade, and many technical traders keep an eye on economic calendars to avoid being blindsided by major news. 💡 Why It Matters Your trading style affects everything: the markets you trade, the tools you use, and even your level of stress. If you’re a fundamentals-first trader trying to scalp five-minute charts, you’re in a world of pain. Conversely, if you’re a technical trader attempting to hold trades for years without considering financial data, you might miss obvious warning signs. Understanding your own tendencies can help refine your strategy and improve your results. Are you more comfortable crunching numbers and reading financial statements? You might be in the same boat with other cash-flow guys like Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio. Do you prefer spotting patterns and reacting to price action? Say hello to your billionaire buddies Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller. 💚 Final Thoughts Bottom line, trading isn’t about proving one method superior — it’s about making the right decisions, and, let’s be frank, turning a profit. Whether you’re a chart junkie or an earnings aficionado, what matters most is having a strategy that works for you. So now the big question… which side are you on? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Comment below and let’s see who’s who!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
33
Boeing May Be Attempting a TurnaroundBoeing has struggled for years, but now there may be signs of a turnaround in the aerospace giant. The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs between December 2023 and early December 2024. The stock has now pushed above that falling trendline, which may suggest its direction is turning. Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) just formed a “Golden Cross” above the 200-day SMA. That may also indicate a change of direction. Third is the rally between November 22 and late December. BA retraced half the move before bouncing, which may confirm an upward trajectory. Fourth is the weekly close of $179.99 from mid-August. The shares have been stuck at that level since December. That may make traders view a close above it as a potential breakout signal. Recent price action has gotten more interesting as well. Last week saw an outside candle around earnings, and now an inside week is forming. While these signals are inconclusive, they’re all potentially consistent with a reversal. Could more news of a business revival bring long-term money off the sidelines? Finally, BA is an active underlier in the options market. (Its average volume of 127,000 contracts per day ranks in the top 5 percent of the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That may help traders take position if the shares start moving. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:BA
by TradeStation
2