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Bitcoin Seizes $100,000. What's Your Prediction for Next Move?And there you have it — a comet in the night sky, Bitcoin BTCUSD finally shattered the landmark $100,000 figure . Prices of the original cryptocurrency are up 50% since Election Day on November 5 and traders have one man to thank. Do you think he doesn’t know it? “CONGRATULATIONS BITCOINERS!!! $100,000!!! YOU’RE WELCOME!!! Together, we will Make America Great Again!” Donald Trump erupted on his social-media platform, Truth Social. As crypto circles around the world celebrated the mind-blowing milestone (that’s a market cap of more than $2 trillion in a $3.5 trillion market ), the volatile crypto couldn’t get any rest. Bitcoin prices seesawed back under $100,000 early Friday with traders experiencing the token’s wild swings and notorious stomach-churning volatility. In wild seesaw motions, the OG crypto yesterday peaked at an all-time high of $103,700 a piece before sliding more than 6% to close the session at a 1.6% daily loss at $96,900 a pop. In other words, crypto traders still need that convincing close above six figures. Donald Trump might just have the answer. The President-elect is keeping busy by forming an A-team of crypto advocates to lead the efforts at the White House. Earlier this week, Trump selected former SEC commissioner Paul Atkins to replace current SEC Chair Gary Gensler. This is one of the key drivers to yesterday’s rally in the broad crypto markets . Because Atkins isn’t just a crypto-friendly former regulator. He’s been advising crypto companies since 2017 and he’s the co-chair of Token Alliance, a subsidiary of Digital Chamber, which was spun up to promote digital assets. Atkins has been consulting crypto companies on how to work with the Securities and Exchange Commission, avoid penalties and lawsuits. And now he might be taking the top job at America’s financial watchdog. It doesn’t end there. A new pick today promises even more growth for the crypto industry in the US. Trump has tapped venture investor and podcast host David Sacks to be the “White House AI & Crypto Czar.” In a post on his social media, Trump wrote that “David will focus on making America the clear global leader in both areas.” “He will safeguard Free Speech online, and steer us away from Big Tech bias and censorship.” Sacks was a major Trump supporter earlier this year. He invited Trump to join him and his podcast peers and fellow investors Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, and David Friedberg for a talk on his All-In podcast , which Trump has called the “top podcast in Tech.” With the stars seemingly aligning for the crypto industry heading into 2025, many digital asset proponents are now calling for $100,000 to be the bottom. A new, loftier goal is now in sight by end of year: $125,000. In 2025, the forecasters among us project Bitcoin prices of about $250,000 , or a 150% increase from current levels. 📡 What’s your forecast? Do you think we’ll see prices top $125,000 still this year? And $250,000 next year? Share your thoughts below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
63
No one telling you this about XRPThe recent analysis on XRP presents intriguing upward potential with a projected long-term target of $64 by 2032. The setup, based on the formation of a bullish pennant, highlights a robust continuation pattern. This structure combines a consolidation phase (triangle) and a preceding upward surge (pole), which, when measured, suggests significant bullish potential. The monthly chart, utilized for this projection, will be updated periodically to track development. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing its previous all-time high (ATH) zone, indicative of strong upward momentum. Historically, such RSI behavior aligns with substantial rallies, reinforcing the probability of XRP exceeding its former ATH of $3.28. The current trajectory suggests XRP is poised for an extended bullish cycle, supported by technical confluence. Additionally, it is worth revisiting a critical observation from July 23, 2023, when XRP traded near $0.47. At that time, it was advised not to sell XRP at such low levels, as technical analysis strongly indicated long-term growth potential. The analysis from that period further validates the current bullish outlook, emphasizing the importance of strategic patience. Those who heeded this advice are now enjoying the remarkable progress in XRP's price action. Further updates will refine these projections in response to market developments.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by weslad
163
Bitcoin - Ultimate bull trap, soon a big crash! (must see)Bitcoin really cannot continue in this parabolic uptrend. Why? Because if yes, it would hit around 600,000 USD by December 2025. Of course that's impossible, so the only option is to slow down. Bitcon still hasn't made any bigger correction in past weeks and is currently facing a very significant psychological resistance of 100,000 USD. I am really not buying because the Moon Boys are back and first we need to see a shakeout and a flash crash. 85k is a very reasonable support because it's the end of the massive FVG (fair value gap) on the daily candles. Also, it's the start of the first price action on the volume profile. This is where you want to buy. What we cannot miss is the symmetrical triangle on the 4H chart. This to me looks like a bull trap on retail traders because everyone would buy the breakout. So there is still a possibility of making a last push to sweep liquidity (stop losses). Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Short
by Xanrox
342
Nvidia: Next Leg Coming?Nvidia has been mostly quiet since the summer, but some traders may think another move to the upside is coming. The first pattern on today’s chart is the August high of $131.26. NVDA broke above this level in the first of October and then pulled back to test it in three different weeks. Has old resistance become new support? Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently converged with the 100-day SMA and is now pulling away. That may suggest its longer-term trend is getting bullish after a period of neutrality. (The activity also resembles patterns in late 2023 and early 2024 before the chip giant doubled.) Third, stochastics are rebounding from an oversold condition. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradeStation
11
Copper - Markets await employment data!In the 4H timeframe, copper is located between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. Copper moved down from the supply zone of the previous analysis. If the upward trend continues, it is possible to sell copper in the next supply zone. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward The governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has stated that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy in 2025. The bank also aims to promote sustainable development in the real estate and capital markets through effective utilization of structural monetary policy tools. Meanwhile, the United States has imposed new export restrictions designed to curtail China’s ability to advance its high-tech semiconductor industry and slow the development of military applications for artificial intelligence (AI). In response, the China Internet Association has expressed that these restrictions will significantly harm the healthy and sustainable growth of China’s internet industry. The association has also urged domestic companies to exercise caution when purchasing American chips and to seek expanded cooperation with chip manufacturers from other countries. In a retaliatory move, China’s Ministry of Commerce has announced a ban on exporting key rare earth metals to the U.S. and is considering stricter reviews for graphite exports. These raw materials are critical for industries such as semiconductors, military systems, electric vehicle batteries, and solar technologies. The ongoing trade tensions between the two nations could have far-reaching consequences for both sides. In the U.S., it is anticipated that November’s employment figures will reflect recovery after being weighed down by recent storms and a major strike.This aligns with a labor market that remains healthy but is gradually normalizing. According to a Bloomberg survey, nonfarm payrolls (NFP) likely increased by 200,000 in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. As the Boeing strike ends and recovery efforts from recent storms begin, November’s job report is expected to be less affected by unusual factors. However, a consistent decline in job openings, moderate employment growth, and layoff plans from companies like Boeing and General Motors indicate a softer labor market overall. These developments, along with Friday’s employment data, could significantly influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions and market expectations for interest rate cuts. The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. construction industry is facing new challenges. The Trump administration’s immigration and trade policies have left homebuilders in a vulnerable position. New tariffs and restrictions on immigrant labor are two key pressures confronting the industry. For instance, McKinney, Texas, which two decades ago was accessible only via a two-lane highway, has now grown to a city of over 200,000 residents, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in the country. This city’s development has relied heavily on immigrant labor and industries dependent on imported steel and commodities. However, recent policies are imposing new challenges, leaving homebuilders grappling with even greater difficulties.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
9
Why Cost of Living is Still a Concern?Why is the cost of living still a concern, even though inflation has declined to 2.6%? In many elections over the past two years, voters have ranked inflation as their top concern. As we can see, the prices of many commodities remain above pre-COVID levels, with gold and meat prices currently much higher than they were at the inflation peak in 2022. Consciously or unconsciously, both investors and consumers seem to feel that the cost of living will remain elevated for a prolonged period. Moreover, there is always a risk that inflation might creep back up again. Feeder Cattle Futures & Options Ticker: GF Minimum fluctuation: 0.00025 per pound = $12.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:GF1!Long
by konhow
9
TradeCityPro | BNB : Approaching Key Resistance Levels👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro! In this analysis, we will examine the price action of BNB, the native token of Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world. ⏳ Weekly Timeframe: Testing All-Time High Resistance On the weekly chart, BNB has been consolidating in a range between $492 and $660 after a strong bullish leg from the $210 support level to its ATH. Currently, the price is near the top of this range, and the increased trading volume at this level suggests a high likelihood of breaking through the $660 resistance. ✨ A breakout above the 62.26 level on the RSI would make this resistance easier to overcome. If the price successfully breaks above $660, the next targets based on Fibonacci extensions are $1043 and $1644. These levels are highly plausible if the RSI enters the Overbought Zone. 🔽 In case of a pullback, the first support level is the bottom of the box at $492, followed by deeper support at $348. As long as the price remains above $348, the overall trend remains bullish. A break below the 50 RSI level, however, could indicate a loss of bullish momentum. 📅 Daily Timeframe: Parabolic Uptrend On the daily chart, the price is in a parabolic uptrend, originating from the $469.65 support level. The price has tested this trendline four times and is currently facing resistance at $660.72. Beneath the price, strong support exists at $606.70, where the market has been consolidating for several days. 🔼 If $660 is broken, the first resistance to watch is at $711, which will serve as the initial target for the upward movement. 📉 In the bearish scenario, if the parabolic trendline and the $606.70 support are broken, the first support level to monitor is $538, followed by deeper support at $469, the bottom of the weekly range. Currently, bullish volume exceeds bearish volume, suggesting a higher probability of breaking through $660 unless significant selling pressure enters the market. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
19
Tesla Stock Surges 38% in November. What’s the Outlook for 2025?EV maker has turned into an exclusive beneficiary of Donald Trump’s second four-year stay at the White House. All thanks to Elon Musk’s financial and social efforts to propel Trump ahead of Kamala Harris on November 5. But what if Trump now gives him the cold shoulder? Here’s a challenge — think of Donald Trump’s right-hand man. Who popped to mind? Was it his pick for Vice President JD Vance? Nuh uh, right? It’s Elon Musk. The unelected tech billionaire, Tesla CEO, X owner has been glued to the President, showing up on photos wearing MAGA hats and promising to restart America’s politics. Let that sink in? With about seven weeks to go before Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, Musk is already enjoying the windfalls of his support for the President-elect. At the end of the day, he dished out as much as $130 million to help Trump secure the win. Quick maths: since November 5, Election Day, Musk’s net worth has puffed up by $72 billion. The rate of return on that $130 mil? A stratospheric 5,500%, or X55 in the span of a mere three weeks’ time. True, it’s all tied up in shares of Tesla TSLA — Musk owns roughly 13% of the electric-car manufacturer. But, more importantly, many investors and analysts believe this is just the start of what’s shaping up to be the golden era of EVs and the futuristic self-driving technology. Despite not being in office yet, Trump has kicked off the work for loosening the federal standards for regulating self-driving vehicles. And expectations couldn’t be higher — Tesla’s mission to roll out cybercabs and robovans might materialize sooner rather than later. AI-trained self-driving cars might be roaming the streets as soon as late 2025. Overly enthusiastic bargain hunters have sensed it already and have been bidding higher and higher for Tesla’s shares. Tesla, the formidable leader in the EV space , closed out November with a whopping 38% increase , or $300 billion poured in. That’s also when Tesla crossed $1 trillion in market value (a top 10 large-cap company ) based on 3.21 billion shares outstanding (but still remains under the record high set in 2021). It was the best month for the stock since January 2023 and the tenth best month in the company’s history. For the record, shares jumped 81% in May 2023, the best month ever. An additional push for bumping up those Tesla numbers might come from the outside, too. Unwillingly, though. Donald Trump has threatened to slap tariffs on imported goods and services to the tune of at least 25% or more (especially 👐 China 👐). Lots of cars and car parts are manufactured in China, Mexico and Canada, three of the countries that are top picks for Trump’s tariffs. What’s more, Elon Musk’s bold foray into politics has birthed a new agency, one specifically tailored to his preference. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) promises to keep Musk and Trump talking on the daily. They’ve joined forces to potentially weed out the big spenders in the government, lean it out and give it a better flow. Investors don’t seem to be doubting Elon Musk’s sincerity and all that powerful collaboration between him and Trump for 2025 and onward has translated into many early billions of dollars soaked up by Tesla (and Musk himself). But on the flip side, Trump isn’t the type of person to share the limelight for too long. And so far Musk has been shoulder to shoulder with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, on planes, in cars and on the golf courts. And on Thanksgiving — sharing the same table. “He likes this place. I can’t get him out of here. He just likes this place,” Trump said at the America First Policy Institute Gala at Mar-a-Lago. Let’s just say it’d be a shame if Jim Cramer were to speak positively about that union. With that said, do you think Musk made a bet for the ages by endorsing Trump? Or you’re more inclined to take a contrarian view — perhaps one where the Musk-Trump bromance falls out? Share your 2025 forecast in the comments and let’s spin up the discussion !
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradingView
5
XAUUSD / TODAY REMAIN DEMAND ZONE EXPECTED TO INCREASE / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS The price has declined and hit a profit target of +455 pips, indicating a successful trade. Prices are now trading above a demand zone between $2,627 and $2,611 , This implies strong buyer interest in this range, providing support. If the price remains above the demand zone, it suggests a likely increase to a supply zone between $2,695 and $2,720 , This reflects a potential upward trend driven by continued buying pressure. If the price breaks below the demand zone, further declines are expected , The next identified demand zone is between $2,595 and $2,585, where buyers may step in again.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArinaKarayi
10
When is a stock too high to buy? (Example: IHG)How do you know when you’ve missed the boat? A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late! Sometimes, you just have to let go, right? Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example. International Hotels Group (IHG) Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 - that’s 5X in about 4 years. Not bad. Can you really even think about buying shares at 10,000 that were 2,000 only 4 years ago. 🤔 We’re saying YES.. if you follow some guidelines. Clearly this is not a value investment - this is a momentum trade. To be buying IHG shares up here, one is basically arguing that the price at new highs indicates and buyers are in charge and the price is going to keep going up for the time being. This helps define the trade risk very well. If the trade is that IHG has broken out over the previous peak at ~8,800. We don’t want to be owning shares below this level - if they’re back below 8,800 the momentum has stalled and we need to be out. To put it another way, we are not buying just under 10,000 and willing to hold the shares all the way back down to 2,000 again - no. We want to ride the momentum up - not down ! From here there’s a pretty good chance that momentum takes the price up to the 10,000 level. As a big round number, there is also a good chance that profit taking takes place here too. That creates our buy zone between 8,800 and the current market price (9,750). So what might a trading strategy look like to capture this situation? The following is a way to have: An intial risk of £1000 to test the waters A total risk £3000 if/when the trade starts working A 2X profit potential (with the opportunity to capture more) Spread Betting Strategy: Target £6000+ Profit with £1000 Initial Risk Entry Points and Stops 9000 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8600 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9200 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8800 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9400 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: Trailing 400 points. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Initial Risk: £1000. Profit Targets First Position (9000): Gain: 1000 points. Profit: £2500. Second Position (9200): Gain: 800 points. Profit: £2000. Third Position (9400): Trailing Stop Profit Example: 10,400 GBX: Profit = £2500. 11,000 GBX: Profit = £4000 or more. Summary Total Risk: £3000. Fixed Profit (First Two Positions): £4500. Potential Profit (Third Position): Variable, based on trailing stop. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2:1 or higher, depending on trend continuation.
LSE:IHGEducation
by jasperlawler
5
Bitcoin: Just Getting Started Again?Bitcoin has retraced to the 90K support (anticipated in my previous article) and is now attempting to retest the 100K high for the second time. Markets are mostly RANDOM, which means there are countless scenarios than can unfold from here. In this article I will focus on just TWO possibilities that I am anticipating for the coming week. The market chooses the outcome and it is our job to use available information to identify the market's intent. For me, that means using price action confirmation to improve probability and quantify my risk for whatever type of trade I am interested in pursuing. The amount of risk you are willing to accept is your responsibility from here. The first scenario is the Captain Obvious one. Price breaks the high of the yesterday's inside bar and tests the 100K level over the coming week. While this may seem great, IF there is no major catalyst behind this, the chances of a FAILED HIGH are significant. The previous retrace serves as a sign that momentum is slowing in general. IF a failed high (double top) appears and confirms, the next retrace can be substantial to the tune of mid 80Ks. This is not a forecast, it is a potential RISK you must accept from current levels. The other thing to consider is even if 100K is cleared, what potential does it have relative to this risk? With that in mind, if I were to do anything with this scenario it would only be on small time frames, because that is the best way to avoid the large magnitude risk while participating in whatever is left of this move. The second scenario is the retrace to the high 80's low 90K area for a failed low. This is more in line with the potential consolidation that appears to be developing (sub Wave 4 of 5?). IF Bitcoin offers this opportunity, along with the confirmation, it has a greater potential than the first scenario (inside bar). The arrows on the chart along with the lines illustrate the failed low scenario. This can be pursued on day trade as well as swing trade time frames. The confirmation at the second low is the key to entering this while keeping risk within reason. A few things to keep in mind about this environment: the catalyst behind this momentum is the U.S. election. Market cap is at all time highs for this sector. Most of the large cap alt coins have reached major resistance levels on weekly and monthly time frames, but nowhere near all time highs. The "experts" are once again all coming out claiming "this is just the beginning". A market testing major resistance levels AFTER sharp break outs is usually NOT "the beginning". In my opinion times like this are ideal for reducing risk or taking profits. I will always suggest this at cycle highs (just like in 2021). "Great" investing opportunities require long periods of WAITING and watching a market go lower and be completely off the mainstream radar. In this space, cycle lows can take a YEAR or TWO to play out. Alt coins are NOT long term assets, they are just a gamble. When asset bubble money flows, it often makes its way to complete nonsense which can be NFTs. Keep an eye in that area for the risk appetite overflow. This is NOT a game of getting "rich" as every single video on Youtube is claiming. It is a game of how much RISK you are willing to take. If you have no problem with a healthy retrace giving back 20%+, then by all means do what you have to do. IF you can't handle losing the money, then you are in the wrong game. There are infinitely more people in position to get rich from this entire space BEFORE you. Markets CYCLE from low to high, etc. Just KNOW the RISK associated with the part of the cycle we are in. Hint: When 5 waves can be counted, it usually means there is a greater chance of a coming corrective move. Just ask all the geniuses who bought the highs back in 21. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
Reality & FibonacciParallels between Schrödinger’s wave function and Fibonacci ratios in financial markets Just as the electron finds its position within the interference pattern, price respects Fibonacci levels due to their harmonic relationship with the market's fractal geometry. Interference Pattern ⚖️ Fibonacci Ratios In the double-slit experiment, particles including photons behave like a wave of probability, passing through slits and landing at specific points within the interference pattern . These points represent zones of higher probability where the electron is most likely to end up. Interference Pattern (Schrodinger's Wave Function) Similarly, Fractal-based Fibonacci ratios act as "nodes" or key zones where price is more likely to react. Here’s the remarkable connection: the peaks and troughs of the interference pattern align with Fibonacci ratios, such as 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, 0.786. These ratios emerge naturally from the mathematics of the wave function, dividing the interference pattern into predictable zones. The ratios act as nodes of resonance, marking areas where probabilities are highest or lowest—mirroring how Fibonacci levels act in financial markets. Application In markets, price action often behaves like a wave of probabilities, oscillating between levels of support and resistance. Just as an electron in the interference pattern is more likely to land at specific points, price reacts at Fibonacci levels due to their harmonic relationship with the broader market structure. This connection is why tools like Fibonacci retracements work so effectively: Fibonacci ratios predict price levels just as they predict the high-probability zones in the wave function. Timing: Market cycles follow wave-like behavior, with Fibonacci ratios dividing these cycles into phase zones. Indicators used in illustrations: Exponential Grid Fibonacci Time Periods Have you noticed Fibonacci ratios acting as critical levels in your trading? Share your insights in the comments below!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by fract
19
What Is a Standard Deviation, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is a Standard Deviation, and How Can You Use It in Trading? Understanding market volatility is essential for effective trading, and one of the most valuable tools for measuring it is standard deviation. This gauge quantifies the dispersion of asset prices around their mean and provides insights into the variability and potential risk associated with a financial instrument. This article delves into what standard deviation is, its calculation, interpretation, practical implementation, and its limitations. What Is Standard Deviation? Standard deviation is a statistical measure that quantifies the dispersion or variability of a set of data points relative to their mean. In trading, it is used to assess the volatility of a financial instrument. A higher standard deviation indicates greater variability in prices, suggesting more significant swings, while a lower value suggests smaller price fluctuations. For instance, consider two stocks: Stock A and Stock B. If Stock A’s standard deviation is 5 and Stock B’s is 15, Stock B exhibits more price variability. This means that Stock B fluctuates more widely around the mean compared to Stock A, and its volatility level is higher. Understanding the standard deviation of a stock or other asset helps traders evaluate its associated value. Assets with high standard deviations are considered riskier as their prices are hardly analysed, whereas assets with low deviations might be seen as potentially safer. Volatility vs Standard Deviation While both terms are related, volatility refers to the degree of variation in an asset's price over time, whereas standard deviation quantifies this variation statistically. The former is the broader concept, encompassing the overall fluctuations, while the latter provides a precise numerical measure of these fluctuations, offering traders a clearer understanding of market behaviour and risk. Calculating Standard Deviation Calculating standard deviation involves a series of straightforward steps. Here's how traders can calculate it using a set of price data: 1. Gather Data: Collect the closing prices of the asset over a specified period. For example, use the closing prices for the past 10 days. 2. Calculate the Mean: Add up all the closing prices and divide by the number of prices to find the average (mean) price. Mean = ∑ Price /Number of Prices 3. Determine the Deviations: Subtract the mean from each closing price to find the deviation of each price from the mean. Deviation = Price − Mean 4. Square the Deviations: Square each deviation to ensure all values are positive. Squared Deviation = (Price − Mean)^2 5. Calculate the Average of Squared Deviations: Add up all the squared deviations and divide by the number of prices minus one (this adjustment, known as Bessel's correction, is used for a sample). Variance = (∑(Price − Mean)^2) / (Number of Prices − 1) 6. Take the Square Root: Find the square root of the variance to get the standard deviation. Standard Deviation = √Variance Example Calculation Assume we have the closing prices for a stock over 5 days: $20, $22, $21, $23, and $22. 1. Mean: (20 + 22 + 21 + 23 + 22) / 5 = 21.6 2. Deviations: −1.6, 0.4, −0.6, 1.4, 0.4 3. Squared Deviations: 2.56, 0.16, 0.36, 1.96, 0.16 4. Variance: (2.56 +0.16 +0.36 + 1.96 + 0.16) / 4 = 1.3 5. Stock’s Standard Deviation: √1.3 ≈1.14 Interpreting Standard Deviation in Trading Standard deviation in trading offers deep insights into the statistical behaviour of asset prices, aiding traders in making informed decisions. Volatility Analysis - Normal Distribution: A normal distribution, also known as a bell curve, is a common statistical pattern where most data points cluster around the mean, with fewer occurrences as you move away from the mean. Within a normal distribution, roughly 68% of data should be within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% inside of two standard deviations, and 99.7% inside of three standard deviations. - Trading Insight: By observing this measure, traders can estimate the likelihood of movements within certain ranges. For instance, if a stock’s daily return has a mean of 0.5% and a deviation of 2%, traders can expect that around 68% of the time, the stock’s daily return will be between -1.5% and 2.5%. Market Sentiment - Rising: An increasing standard deviation can signal growing uncertainty or a transition period in the market. It might precede major news events, economic changes, or market corrections. Traders often watch for rising volatility as a precursor to market shifts, adjusting their positions accordingly. - Falling: A decreasing standard deviation can indicate calming markets or consolidation phases, where prices move around a mean. This might suggest that the market is absorbing recent volatility, leading to potential trend formation. Traders may see this as a period to prepare for future directional moves. Risk Assessment - Portfolio Management: The measure helps in assessing the risk level of an asset or portfolio. A higher value in a portfolio suggests greater overall risk, prompting traders to diversify or adjust their holdings to manage exposure. - Comparative Analysis: By comparing the standard deviation of different assets, traders can identify which securities align with their risk tolerance. For instance, a conservative trader might prefer assets with lower standard deviations for their smaller price fluctuations. Performance Evaluation - Sharpe Ratio: Standard deviation is a key component in calculating the Sharpe Ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns. A lower figure, in conjunction with a high return, indicates better performance on a risk-adjusted basis. Traders use this to compare the efficiency of different investments. Indicators Using Standard Deviation Standard deviation is a fundamental tool in trading, utilised in various indicators to assess volatility and inform strategies. To explore the indicators discussed below and apply them to live charts, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Standard Deviation Indicator - Description: The standard deviation indicator directly displays an asset’s standard deviation on a chart. It visually represents the deviation of the asset over a specified period. - Interpretation: When the value is high, the market is experiencing more significant swings. Conversely, a low deviation suggests a market with less fluctuation. Traders often use this indicator to gauge the current volatility and adjust their strategies accordingly. Bollinger Bands - Description: Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: a simple moving average (SMA) in the middle and two standard deviation lines (one above and one below the SMA). - Interpretation: The width of the bands reflects volatility. When the bands widen, it indicates increased volatility, while narrowing bands suggest the opposite. Bollinger Bands are commonly used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. Prices touching the upper band may signal an overbought market, while prices touching the lower band may indicate an oversold market. Traders use this information to make decisions about potential entry or exit points. Relative Volatility Index - Description: The Relative Volatility Index (RVI) uses the standard deviation of high and low prices over a specified period to measure volatility. - Interpretation: The RVI is used to measure the volatility of a financial instrument, comparing price changes to price ranges over a specified period. It helps traders identify potential trend reversals or continuations by signalling periods of heightened or diminished market activity. Practical Implementation of Standard Deviation in Trading Traders utilise this statistical measure for several practical applications to enhance their trading strategies and risk management. Risk Management It helps in setting price targets and stop-loss levels. By understanding the typical price range, traders can place stop-loss orders beyond the expected range to avoid premature exits. For example, if the expected deviation is $2, a stop-loss might be set at $4 away from the entry level to account for typical fluctuations. On the other hand, a trader may extend or tighten their profit target based on the market’s standard deviation. If it indicates volatility is low, they might prefer to set a target closer to the current price vs in a highly volatile market. Evaluating Positions When choosing or evaluating a potential position, traders might consider this measure to gauge expected volatility. A higher value signals higher potential market swings, indicating more risk. This may help in aligning trades with individual risk tolerance levels. Identifying Extreme Price Movements Bollinger Bands are particularly useful here. These bands are set at a distance of two or three standard deviations from a moving average. Movements outside these bands indicate extreme values. For instance, a spike beyond three standard deviations occurs only 0.03% of the time in a normal distribution, suggesting a strong signal. Traders might view a breach above the upper band as a potential selling point and a breach below the lower band as a buying opportunity. Limitations of Standard Deviation While standard deviation is a valuable tool in trading, it has certain limitations: - Assumes Normal Distribution: It presumes data follows a normal distribution, which isn't always true in financial markets where extreme events can occur more frequently. - Historical Data Dependence: It relies on historical data to define future volatility, potentially missing unforeseen market changes. - Ignores Direction: It reflects volatility but doesn't indicate the direction of market movements, making it less useful for trend analysis. - Sensitivity to Outliers: Extreme values can skew the measure, leading to inaccurate volatility assessments. - Not a Standalone Tool: It should be used alongside other indicators and analysis techniques to provide a comprehensive market view. The Bottom Line Understanding and utilising standard deviation is vital for effective trading and risk management. By incorporating this measure, traders can better analyse volatility and make informed decisions. To apply these insights in real-world trading, open an FXOpen account and start leveraging advanced tools and strategies today. FAQs Is Volatility the Same as Standard Deviation? Volatility and standard deviation are related but not identical. Volatility relates to how much variation exists in an asset’s price over a period of time. Standard deviation is a statistical measure used to quantify this volatility. Essentially, it provides a numeric value for volatility, indicating how much an asset's price deviates from its average. How to Calculate the Volatility of a Stock? To calculate stock volatility, traders determine the standard deviation of its returns over a specific period. They collect the daily closing prices, calculate the daily returns, and then compute the standard deviation of these returns. This gives the annualised volatility, reflecting the stock's fluctuation rate. What Is a Good Standard Deviation for a Stock? A "good" standard deviation depends on the trader’s risk tolerance and strategy. Lower values might suggest potentially less risk and less market fluctuation, suitable for conservative traders. Higher values indicate greater risk and potential reward, appealing to risk-tolerant traders. Generally, it’s best to seek a balance. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by FXOpen
6
Understanding Trends and Waves in TradingIntroduction In trading education, recognising price movements is crucial. Prices move in trends, and these trends move in waves. Understanding these waves is essential for successful trading. The Two Types of Waves Impulsive/Primary Trend Comprises a minimum of five waves. Dictates the overall direction of price movement. Corrective/Secondary Trend Comprises a maximum of three waves. Provides insights into the ongoing trend. This phase is the most critical for traders to master. Conclusion To trade successfully in a trending market, it’s vital to learn how to accurately count waves. Mastering this skill can significantly enhance your trading decisions. Best wishes for your trading success!
Education
by Charts247TradingAcademy
5
Measured Moves: A Guide to Finding TargetsMeasured Moves: A Guide to Finding Targets Visualizing the boundaries of price movement helps anticipate potential swing points. The concept of measured moves offers a structured framework to estimate future price behavior, based on the observation that each swing move often mirrors the size of the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach provides a practical method to approximate the extension of a swing move. Background Determining profit targets across various methods and timeframes can be challenging. To address this, I reviewed the tactics of experienced traders and market research, noting key similarities and differences. Some traders relied more on discretion, while others used technical targets or predetermined risk-to-reward ratios. Levels of support and resistance (S/R) and the Fibonacci tool frequently appeared, though their application varied by trader. Based on current evidence, levels appear most relevant when tied to the highest and lowest swing points within the current price structure, for example in a range-bound market. In contrast, sporadic or subtle levels from historical movements seem no more significant than random points. The Fibonacci tool can provide value since measurements are based on actual price range; however, the related values have limited evidence to support them. To explore these ideas, I conducted measurements on over a thousand continuation setups to identify inherent or consistent patterns in swing moves. It’s important to emphasize that tools and indicators should never be used blindly. Trading requires self-leadership and critical thinking. The application of ideas without understanding their context or validity undermines the decision-making process and leads to inconsistent results. This concept formed the foundation for my analysis, ensuring that methods were tested rather than taken at face value. Definitions Trending price movement advances in steps, either upward or downward. This includes a stronger move followed by a weaker corrective move, also known as a retracement. When the corrective move is done and prices seem to resume the prevailing trend, we can use the prior move to estimate targets; this is known as a projection. For example, if a stock moves up by 10%, pauses, and subsequently makes another move, we can utilize that value to estimate the potential outcome. Well thats the idea.. Data Through manual measurements across various timeframes, price structures, and stock categories, I have gathered data on retracements and projections. However, this information should not be considered precise due to market randomness and inherent volatility. In fact, deviations—such as a notable failure to reach a target or overextensions—can indicate a potential structural change. As this study was conducted with a manual approach, there is a high risk of selection bias, which raises concerns about the methodology's reliability. However, it allows for a more discretionary perspective, enabling observations and discretion that might be overlooked in a purely automated analysis. To simplify the findings, the presented values below represent a combination of all the data. Retracement Tool In the context of price movements within a trend, specifically continuation setups, retracements typically fall between 20% and 50% of the prior move. While retracements beyond 50% are less common, this does not necessarily invalidate the setup. From my observations, two distinct patterns emerge. First, a shallow retracement where the stock consolidates within a narrow range, typically pulling back no more than 10% to 20% before continuing its trend. Second, a deeper retracement, often around 50%, followed by a nested move higher before a continuation. For those referencing commonly mentioned values (though not validated), levels such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 44.7%, and 50% align with this range. Additionally, 18% frequently appears as a notable breakout point. However, I strongly advise against relying on precise numbers with conviction due to the natural volatility and randomness inherent in the market. Instead, a more reliable approach is to maintain a broad perspective—for example, recognizing that retracements in the 20% to 50% range are common before a continuation. This approach allows flexibility and helps account for the variability in price action. Projection Tool When there is a swing move either upward or downward, we can utilize the preceding one of the same type for estimation. This approach can be used exclusively since it is applicable for retracements, projections, and range-bound markets as long as there has been a similar price event in recent time. In terms of projection, the most common range is between 60% and 120% of the prior move, with 70% to 100% being more prevalent. It is uncommon for a stock to exceed 130% of the preceding move. Frequently mentioned values in this context include 61.8% and 78.6% as one area, although these values are frequently surpassed. The next two commonly mentioned values are 88.6% and 100%, which are the most frequent and can be used effectively on their own. These values represent a complete measured move, as they closely mimic the magnitude of the prior move with some buffer. The last value, 127%, is also notable, but exceeding this level is less common. Application The simplest application of this information is to input the range of 80% to 100% into the projection tool. Then, measure a similar prior move to estimate the subsequent one. This is known as the measured move. There are no strict rules to follow—it’s more of an art. The key is to measure the most similar move in recent times. If the levels appear unclear or overly complicated, they likely are. The process should remain simple and combined with a discretionary perspective. Interestingly, using parallel channels follows the same principle, as they measure the range per swing and project average volatility. This can provide an alternative yet similar way to estimate price movement based on historical swings. The advantage of this method is its universal and adaptable nature for setting estimates. However, it requires a prior swing move and is most effective in continuation setups. Challenges arise when applying it to the start of a new move, exhaustion points, or structural changes, as these can distort short-term price action. For instance, referencing a prior uptrend to project a downtrend is unlikely to be effective due to the opposing asymmetry in swing moves. In some cases, measured moves from earlier periods can be referenced if the current range is similar. Additionally, higher timeframes take precedence over lower ones when determining projections. This is nothing more than a tool and should be used with a discretionary perspective, as with all indicators and drawing tools. The true edge lies elsewhere. Example Use 1. Structure: Identify an established trend or range and measure a clear swing move. 2. Measured Move: Apply the measurement to the subsequent move by duplicating the line to the next point or using a trend-based Fibonacci extension tool set to 100% of the prior swing. The first two points define the swing move. The third point is placed at the deepest part of the subsequent pullback or at the start of the new move. 3. Interpretation: While this is a simple tool, its effective use and contextual application require experience and practice. Remember, this process relies on approximation and discretionary judgment.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by StockLeave
12
The Wildest Forex Stories You Won’t Believe Actually HappenedIf you think the forex market is all about boring spreadsheets, economic data, and mind-numbing chart patterns, think again. Beneath the surface of the world’s largest financial market lies a treasure trove of jaw-dropping, laugh-out-loud, and occasionally heart-wrenching tales. Some of these stories will make you double-check your stop-losses, while others might tempt you to try your hand at trading—if only for the adrenaline rush. Here’s a whirlwind tour of the forex market’s wildest moments. Spoiler alert: truth really is stranger than fiction. The “Flash Crash” That Shook the Yen Imagine logging into your trading platform, coffee in hand, only to see the yen skyrocket in a matter of minutes. That’s precisely what happened on January 3, 2019, when the USD/JPY pair nosedived by 4% in less than 10 minutes. The culprit? A rare combo of thin holiday liquidity, panicked algorithms, and a trigger-happy market reacting to Apple’s earnings warning . Traders watching the carnage were left rubbing their eyes in disbelief as billions of dollars evaporated faster than you can say “where’s my stop loss.” Some savvy players profited handsomely, while others were left staring at margin calls and wondering if they’d just witnessed a glitch in the Matrix. Lesson learned : Low liquidity markets can be as risky as walking on thin ice. George Soros: The Man Who Made $1 Billion in a Day No list of wild forex stories is complete without the ultimate trading flex: George Soros’s legendary short against the British pound in 1992. Dubbed “Black Wednesday,” this was the day Soros and his Quantum Fund went toe-to-toe with the Bank of England—and won. Convinced by his partner Stanley Druckenmiller that the pound was overvalued and would be forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), Soros bet billions on its decline. The result? A cool $1 billion profit in a single day, a humiliated Bank of England, and Soros’s elevation to trading legend. Lesson learned : Never underestimate the power of conviction—or billions in leverage. The Swiss Franc Tsunami On January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) shocked the world by unpegging the Swiss franc from the euro . In the blink of an eye, the EUR/CHF pair plummeted as much as 19%, and chaos erupted across the forex market. Brokers went under, traders were wiped out, and even the most seasoned professionals were left scrambling for answers. Lesson learned : Central banks play by their own rules, and when they change the game, expect pandemonium. The Trader Who Bet Against the Euro—and Won Big Meet John Taylor, the founder of currency hedge fund FX Concepts and one of the original forex market wizards. In the early 2000s, Taylor made a name for himself by betting against the euro when everyone else was bullish. Armed with a combination of macroeconomic analysis and a deep understanding of market psychology, he rode the euro’s decline to rack up massive profits. His contrarian approach earned him a reputation as a forex maverick, proving that going against the herd can pay off big—if you’ve done your homework. But not for long. Long story short: FX Concepts got up to $14 billion in assets in 2008 and declared bankruptcy in 2013. Lesson learned : In forex, sometimes the best trades are the ones no one else sees coming. But also—it’s tough to know when to call it quits. The Currency Crash That Inspired a Coup In 1997, the Asian Financial Crisis sent shockwaves through global markets, but few places felt it as acutely as Indonesia. The rupiah lost more than 80% of its value , sparking widespread economic turmoil and political unrest that ultimately led to the resignation of President Suharto after 31 years in power. While most forex traders were focused on the numbers, the crisis served as a stark reminder that currencies aren’t just lines on a chart—they’re the backbone of entire economies. Lesson learned : Forex trading can shape history in ways few other markets can. The Pound’s Post-Brexit Rollercoaster In June 2016, the Brexit referendum sent the British pound on a ride so wild it could rival any theme park attraction. As the "Leave" vote defied polls and pundits, the pound plummeted 10%, hitting levels not seen since the 1980s . Traders who had been banking on a "Remain" victory were left scrambling, while those betting against the pound made a killing. The chaos didn’t stop there. In the months and years that followed, every Brexit-related headline became a market-moving event. Negotiation updates? Pound down. Political drama? Pound down. A tiny glimmer of clarity? Pound up—until the next twist. This wasn’t just a currency reacting to uncertainty; it was a masterclass in how politics can take control of forex markets. Lesson learned : Currencies are deeply tied to national identity and global sentiment. And when politics enters the mix, expect fireworks. What’s Your Wildest Forex Story? The forex market is a place of extremes—extreme risk, extreme reward, and extreme stories that prove truth is stranger than fiction. Have your own wild forex story to share? Maybe you caught the Swiss franc wave or survived a flash crash with your account intact. Drop your tale in the comments and let’s get talking!
Education
by TradingView
23
Benchmarking a trend with a moving average (Example: Gold)They say a bad workman blames his tools. Quite often, good work means using the right tools. In a trend you need to use trend-following tools - and the most famous indicator is the moving average. When it's a fast-moving trend, you need to use averages taken over shorter periods (e.g. 20 day SMA > 200 day SMA). Likewise a slower trend needs averages taken over longer periods (e.g. 20 week > 50 day). Gold has just bounced off the 20 week moving average for the fourth time. The market is clearly benchmarking this trend according to this specific average. So while the price is above this moving average the trend is intact - and when it eventually breaks below it will be an important signal that the strength of the trend has weakened - and could be about to reverse. On the daily chart a rising trendline has broken but we would argue the reason the rebound off the low has been so strong is because the price rebounded off the 20 week moving average. For now our bias is bullish but there are no good risk:reward opportunities to buy and it remains unclear whether the short term uptrend can continue after the trendline break
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by jasperlawler
8
Kill Zone Trading in ForexKill Zone Trading in Forex Kill Zones represent key periods when market volatility and trading volume surge. This article delves into the concept of Kill Zones, their strategic importance, and practical insights on how traders can leverage these windows for effective trading. Understanding Kill Zones Why do ICT Kill Zones matter? A Kill Zone in forex trading refers to a specific time period during which currency pairs experience increased volatility and volume. These periods are crucial for traders who aim to capitalise on significant price movements. The concept, popularised by Michael Huddleston, also known as the Inner Circle Trader, highlights the importance of timing in trading strategies. The strategies are based on global forex hours. The forex market operates 24 hours a working day across four major sessions: Sydney, Tokyo, London, and New York. The interaction between these sessions, particularly at their opening and closing times, creates unique opportunities for traders. The heightened activity during these periods can lead to greater liquidity and faster price movements. The Four Primary Kill Zones The four primary Kill Zones represent strategic windows where trading volume and volatility peak due to the interplay of global market sessions. Each period corresponds to key transitions in major forex markets worldwide. Below, we’ve described each along with the key ICT Kill Zone times. You can see how currency pairs react during these times in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. 1. Asian Kill Zone Asian Kill Zone Time Period: 23:00 GMT to 02:00 GMT in winter and in summer. This window coincides with the opening of Asian markets, primarily Tokyo. This period sees increased activity in currency pairs with AUD, NZD, and JPY. The US dollar typically shows consolidation, providing an environment ripe for scalping strategies. Traders often monitor for optimal trade entry (OTE) patterns, another ICT concept, during this time, capitalising on the day’s initial movements and setting the stage for the European session. 2. London Kill Zone London Kill Zone Time Period: 08:00 GMT to 11:00 GMT in winter (07:00 GMT to 10:00 GMT in summer). This window is known for its volatility and significant trading volume, particularly involving EUR and GBP. As the London session opens, it often establishes the daily highs (in bullish markets) or lows (in bearish markets), reacting to developments from the Asian session. Traders analyse market movements to prepare for potential breakouts or reversals. This window can be crucial when setting up trades, especially for currency pairs that show little activity overnight but become volatile with the London opening. 3. New York Kill Zone New York Kill Zone Time Period: 13:00 GMT to 16:00 GMT in winter (12:00 GMT to 15:00 GMT in summer). This window marks the overlap of the London and New York sessions, creating a critical period for USD-paired currencies. The dynamics of this period are influenced by the activity of traders from both continents being concurrently active. Traders seek continuation or reversal of the trends established over the London session, employing strategies that capitalise on the volatility to maximise returns. 4. London Close Kill Zone London Close Kill Zone Time Period: 15:00 GMT to 17:00 GMT in winter (14:00 GMT to 16:00 GMT in summer). As the London session concludes, this window typically exhibits less volatility but still offers opportunities for strategic trades. Traders might observe retracements or continuations of earlier trends. During this period, strategies often revolve around identifying trend exhaustion and preparing for potential reversals as European traders close their positions, influencing pair directions before the close of the American session. Practical Considerations for Trading Kill Zones When engaging with Kill Zones in forex, practical considerations are key to leveraging these periods effectively. Keep in mind these things: Navigating Time Zone Shifts Traders must account for time zone shifts such as British Summer Time (BST) and Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) when planning their trading schedules. These shifts can impact the real-time operation of forex markets by altering the relative timing of session openings and peak activity periods. BST is GMT+1, moving the London window to an hour earlier for those trading on GMT. During BST, which typically runs from late March to late October, the London Kill Zone shifts from 07:00 to 10:00 GMT. Conversely, EDT, which is GMT-4, affects those in the US by advancing the New York window to start and end an hour earlier. This period typically extends from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November. Risk Management Trading during these windows involves navigating periods of high volatility, where price movements are rapid and unpredictable. - Volatility-Based Position Sizing: Adjusting position sizes based on volatility may be useful. In more volatile periods like the London or New York openings, reducing position size may help manage potential losses. - Time-Specific Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders that reflect the heightened activity levels can help mitigate potential risks. For example, wider stop-loss margins might be necessary across the New York window due to the significant price shifts that can occur when both American and European markets are active. - Real-Time Monitoring: Active monitoring during these volatile times is vital. Rapid response to price changes can potentially help mitigate losses. Setting alerts at particular levels and indicators may aid in a proactive approach. The Bottom Line Understanding and utilising Kill Zones may enhance a trader's ability to strategically enter and exit the market during periods of high volatility and volume. They offer pivotal opportunities for discerning traders to capitalise on significant price movements. For those looking to further explore or leverage these opportunities, opening an FXOpen account could be a valuable step towards engaging with currency pairs during these critical windows. FAQs What Is a Kill Zone in Trading? A Kill Zone in trading refers to specific times in the forex market when price volume and volatility are significantly higher than usual, offering key opportunities for currency trades. How Do You Use a Kill Zone? Traders often analyse market conditions and use historical data to identify high-probability opportunities during these volatile windows. How to Trade Effectively During ICT Kill Zones? Trading effectively involves understanding each Kill Zone's characteristics and using effective risk management tools to capitalise on increased volatility and liquidity. What Is the ICT Kill Zone Indicator for TradingView? The ICT Kill Zone indicator, developed by LuxAlgo, highlights these critical periods directly on TradingView charts, aiding traders in visualising potential trading windows. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
4
Silver Bullet Strategy EURUSD USDCAD AUDUSD | 26/11/2024Yesterday served as a classic example of the importance of risk management in every trader's system. We initiated three trades across three different currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD) and plan to provide a detailed breakdown of each trade, including the outcomes. We began scouting for potential setups that matched our entry criteria at 10:00 EST. By 10:30 EST, a FVG had developed on GBPUSD, indicating potential selling opportunities during this trading session. All that remained was to wait for a retracement into the created FVG to secure an entry point for the trade The subsequent five-minute candle entered the Fair Value Gap (FVG) on GBPUSD, indicating that we could execute our trade upon its closure. Simultaneously, we were exploring additional trading opportunities across various currency pairs. It was then that we observed the emergence of a FVG on USDCAD, necessitating a wait for a retracement into the FVG before executing a trade. We executed the trade on GBPUSD while awaiting confirmation to enter the USDCAD position. The USDCAD setup provided an entry confirmation, indicating that we would have two trades active during this session. Additionally, the session was still ongoing when we observed that another EURUSD setup was approaching the fulfillment of our entry criteria. Immediately after initiating the trades on GBPUSD and USDCAD, we observed a significant drawdown on both. This was due to a large bearish marubozu candle printing on the USDCAD, while the GBPUSD experienced two successive bullish candles, casting both positions in an unfavorable light. While all this was happening the setup on EURUSD had fulfilled all the requirements on our checklist so we had to execute that trade as well. Our USDCAD position hit the stop loss, and shortly after, our GBPUSD position also reached the stop loss, resulting in a 2% reduction of our trading account for the day. This leaves us with just one active position on EURUSD. Being in such a position wouldn't be easy to bare if we hadn't managed risk properly. We entered these trades risking only 1% per trade and had already accepted the potential outcomes, which greatly diminished any emotional attachment to these trades. With that in mind, the EURUSD position began moving in our desired direction, which was a considerable relief after two out of three trades had reached the stop-loss point We patiently waited, and this time our patience paid off when our EURUSD position hit the take profit (TP) for a 2% gain. Thus, for the day, we experienced two losses and a win, but with effective risk management, our win offset both losses, and we broke even for the day. Do you see the importance of ensuring your wins outweigh your losses? We experienced just one win and two losses, yet our single win was more significant that it offset all the losses we had for the day
Education
by CleoFinance
5
Using Bollinger Bands to Gauge Market Trends and Volatility The US Thanksgiving holiday usually marks a quieter period for trading, as US financial markets are closed on Thursday and US traders often take the Friday off as a holiday to benefit from a long weekend. This can see both lower volume and volatility, so we thought we’d take this time to outline one of our favourite technical indicators, called Bollinger Bands. The aim is to increase your knowledge of a new indicator you may consider worth knowing, ahead of the first week of December, which is packed full of important events that may kick start markets moving again into the end of 2024. We intend to highlight how Bollinger Bands can potentially be applied to help read both current trending and volatility conditions for any asset. To help with this, we are using the US 500 index as an example to outline the type of band set-ups you can consider using within your day-to-day analysis and trading. What are Bollinger Bands? Bollinger bands are made of 3 lines – the mid-average, upper and lower band (see chart above). The mid-average is a 20 period moving average, with the upper and lower bands calculated using 2 standard deviations either side of the mid-average. If you are unsure of the concept or how to calculate 2 standard deviations, please don’t worry, the Pepperstone charting system will do this automatically for you and add them to the chart of any asset you may wish to analyse. The mid-average is used to reflect the direction of the on-going trending condition of a market. If its rising, an uptrend is in place, while if it’s falling, a downtrend is evident. How the bands act in relation to the mid-average is key when using Bollinger bands. They can often offer important confirmation of the trend and can show if acceleration phases in the price of a particular asset may be seen within that trend. The most important thing to know about Bollinger bands is that they react to increasing volatility within price. Periods of increasing volatility see both bands widening away from the mid-average, while if volatility is decreasing, they contract or draw closer to the mid-average. Let’s look at this further. What Set-Ups are We Looking For and What Do They Mean? There are 5 set-ups to be aware of when using Bollinger bands and each offer clues to the next activity in the price of a particular asset. 1st: Volatility Increasing Within a Confirmed Trend: When the mid-average is either rising (to highlight an uptrend) or falling (to reflect a downtrend), and the bands are widening to show increasing volatility within that trend, alongside the upper band being touched in an uptrend, or within a downtrend, the lower band being touched. When all the above conditions are evident, the potential is for that move to extend further than perhaps anticipated. On the US 500 Index chart above, the green arrows mark when these more aggressive trending conditions are in place. 2nd: Volatility Decreasing Within a Confirmed Trend: Where the mid-average is either rising (uptrend) or falling (downtrend), and the bands are contracting reflecting decreasing volatility within that trend. When these set-ups are in place, the speed of the recent directional move is slowing, and the possibilities are increasing for a consolidation in price. During this period, we may want to consider reducing or closing positions and reverting to the side lines, as a setback could materialise, as a reaction to the latest move. On the chart above, red arrows mark these consolidation periods. 3rd: Mid-Average Support/Resistance Holds Within Corrective Moves: Within these corrective or recovery phases after periods of increasing volatility and widening bands, we must watch how the mid-average support or resistance is defended. If the mid-average is rising, highlighting an uptrend and holding price weakness, it may resume the direction of the original trend. Similarly, when the mid-average is falling, highlighting a downtrend and holding price strength, it may continue in the same direction. However, past trends and technical indicators are not reliable predictors of future performance, and market conditions can change unexpectedly. On the new chart above, these points are marked by the blue vertical arrows. 4th: Trend Channels Form Between Mid-Average and Upper/Lower Band: When the rising mid-average holds as suggested in the third set-up above, this can see uptrend or downtrend channels form in price. In an uptrend, the rising mid-average holds price weakness and turns it higher. While this still sees price strength, volatility doesn’t increase but remains steady, reflected by rising parallel bands and support continues to be found by the rising mid-average. However, resistance materialises following tests of the upper band, for a setback towards the support of the still rising mid-average. This pattern ends if the price of the asset breaks below the support offered by the rising mid-average. On the latest chart above, this is marked by the purple arrows. When the declining mid-average holds price strength, as suggested in the 3rd set-up above, this can see a downtrend channel form in price. In a downtrend, the declining mid-average holds price strength and turns it back lower. While this scenario still sees price weakness, volatility remains steady and doesn’t increase, reflected by the declining bands being parallel, and resistance continues to be found by the falling mid-average. However, tests of the lower band see support materialise and a rally in price ensues towards resistance marked by the still falling mid-average. This pattern ends if the price of the asset breaks above resistance offered by the falling mid-average. This situation is the opposite of the chart above. 5th: Mid-Average Broken to See More Extended Rally/Sell-Off: Mid-average support or resistance gives way, but while price weakness or strength develops, the direction of the average doesn’t change. This sees a limited move in the direction of the mid-average break. During price weakness, if the mid-average continues to rise, the lower band can act as a support level and prompt a rally. During price strength, if the mid-average continues to fall, the upper band acts as a resistance level from which price weakness can emerge again. These signals are marked by the green rectangles in the chart above. It is important to note in this example, if an upper or lower bands is touched and then both bands start to widen alongside the mid-average changing direction, then this is highlighting the 1st set up described above, meaning we are observing increasing volatility within what is a new trending condition. In this situation, we may need to consider adjusting our trading strategy to reflect this new directional shift in price. Conclusion: While past signals within Bollinger Bands are not a guarantee of future signals, by utilising the set-ups described above, they may offer an indication of the latest trending conditions in the price of a particular asset. More importantly, they help to highlight when increasing volatility is materialising and when more sustained price moves are possibly on the cards, in the direction of the on-going trend. Also, they show when decreasing volatility can result in a period of consolidation and a reaction to the recent move due. Take a look at the Pepperstone charting system and consider whether Bollinger Bands may help you establish the next directional moves for the asset you’re trading. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Education
by Pepperstone
7
Profitable Support and Resistance Strategy for Trading Forex This support and resistance strategy works on any forex pair and gold. It is simple and profitable and it is the best trading strategy for beginners. In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for trading this strategy. You will learn entry rules and important theory. First and foremost, in order to profitably trade support and resistance levels, you need to know how to identify them. You should know how to distinguish a significant structure level. I believe that you should look for a strong support or resistance strictly on a daily time frame. That structure should be historically significant. It means that it should be respected by the market at least 2 times, with a strong and clear reaction to that. Here is the example of a key support on EURUSD. The underlined key level was respected as the resistance, first, then, after a breakout, it turned into support and a strong bullish reaction followed. Above, you can see a perfect horizontal resistance level that was respected 2 time in a row in the recent past. Support and resistance levels that I showed you are truly significant. But, trading more than 9 years, I realized that the historic reaction of the market to a key level is not enough to make it reliable. I found one more important condition that strengthen a key level - a market trend. We will trade only supports that align with the market trend, meaning that we buy from such a support, if only the market is trading in a bullish trend. In the example above, NZDUSD is trading in a clear bullish trend on a daily. If we buy the market from the underlined support level, we will take a trend-following trade. That will be the best support level for buying the market from. We will trade only the resistances that align with the market trend. It means that we will sell from the resistance, only if the market is trading in a bearish trend. Look at AUDUSD on a daily. The pair is trading in a bearish trend. The resistance that I underlined will be valid for selling from, because shoring from that, we will trade with the trend. Please, realize that if you sell the market that is in an uptrend from a resistance level, you will go AGAINST the trend. The probabilities of winning such a trade will always be lower. You can see the EURNZD went through a resistance level, completely neglecting that, because the market trend was bullish. Buying a key support in a bearish trend, we will take a trade against the trend. Such trades always have lower accuracy. A key support on EURCAD was easily broken because the market was trading in a bearish trend. Now, let's discuss th e entry point, stop loss placement and target selection. Once you identified a key resistance in a bearish trend, set a sell limit order on that. On EURGBP, the market is trading in a bearish trend on a daily. We see a significant resistance that meets our criteria. We should set a sell limit order on that. Stop loss for the trade will be 0.5 ATR. I simply take the default ATR settings with 14 Length. In our example, ATR is 27 pips. Our stop loss for the trade will be 14 pips above the entry level. Take profit for the trade will be the closest support. Here is the closest support that I spotted on EURGBP. It will be our TP level. You can see that the market perfectly reached the target. Once you identified a key support in a bullish trend, set a buy limit order on that. I see a perfect daily key support on EURJPY pair. The market is trading in a strong uptrend. A buy limit order should be set on that level. Stop loss for the trade will be 0.5 ATR. ATR is 139 pips. Our stop loss will be 70 pips. Take Profit will be the closest daily resistance. 311 pips of profit were made. Market trend is always your friend . The rule to trade support and resistance levels only in the side of the trend is very simple, but many newbie trades neglect that, and lose a lot of money. Try this support and resistance strategy, back test it on different forex pairs and let me know your results. Thanks for reading! ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
20
Incoming 50% for Dogecoin ??**short term analysis - Days and weeks ahead** On the above 3 day chart price action has enjoyed a massive 320% rally over the last 2 months thanks to you know who. A number of reasons now exist to be “short”, despite the myriad of long ideas currently on the platform. 1) Price action prints bearish divergence. 2) Price action was recently outside the Bollinger Band. We know 95% off all price action trades around the mean, which is currently 50% below. 3) Remaining on the Bollinger Band notice the slight inward curve (red arrows)? This is informing you the current extension in price action is now exhausted. 4) Lastly, support and resistance. 20 cents was resistance for multiple months. Healthy market structure would see past resistance confirm as support before the continuation of the uptrend. Is it possible price action continues upwards and onwards? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww
Short
by without_worries
136