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Smart Money Concept and How To Use It in TradingSmart Money Concept and How To Use It in Trading In the world of forex trading, understanding the movements and strategies of the market's most influential players like banks and hedge funds—termed "smart money"—can provide retail traders with a significant advantage. This FXOpen article offers a deep dive into the Smart Money Concept, discussing how institutional investors influence market trends and how retail traders can align their strategies with these market movers for potentially better outcomes. Understanding the Smart Money Concept The Smart Money Concept (SMC) centres on the principle that the movements of large institutional investors in financial markets can offer valuable clues to retail traders about future market trends. These institutional investors, often referred to as “smart money,” include banks, hedge funds, and investment firms, wielding significant capital power to influence market directions. The core of SMC lies in the belief that by observing and understanding the trading behaviours and patterns of these entities, retail traders can align their trading strategies to potentially tap into more favourable results. In essence, SMC is not merely about following the “money” but understanding the strategic placements and movements of these large volumes of capital. Institutional investors typically conduct extensive research and possess a deep understanding of the market dynamics before making substantial trades. Their actions, therefore, are often indicative of a broader market sentiment or an impending significant market move. By deciphering these signals, retail traders can gain insights into market trends before they become obvious to the wider market. Understanding SMC requires a shift in perspective from focusing solely on technical indicators and price action to considering the market's psychological and strategic elements. For retail traders, leveraging the Smart Money Concept means navigating the market with a more informed approach, using the trails left by institutional investors as a path to smarter trading decisions. Ideas in Smart Money Concept The Smart Money Concept introduces several foundational ideas that provide traders with a framework to interpret market movements through the lens of institutional activities. Order Blocks Represent areas where institutional investors have placed significant orders, usually in the form of a range. These blocks often precede a strong market move in the direction of the block, serving as a signpost for areas of interest to “smart money.” When the price returns back to this zone, it’ll often reverse (similar to an area of support or resistance). Breaker Blocks These are essentially failed order blocks. When an order block fails to hold the price, it breaks through, potentially indicating that the “smart money” direction has changed. When the price breaks above or below the order block, it can then act as a barrier for prices in the future (similar to the way an area of support can become resistance and vice versa). Breaks of Structure (BOS) A BOS occurs when the price surpasses a significant high or low, indicating a potential change in market trend. It signifies the end of one market phase and the beginning of another, offering clues about “smart money”’s influence on market direction. Recognising BOS can be crucial for determining trend direction. Change of Character (ChoCH) This concept refers to a notable alteration in the market's behaviour, often seen through an abrupt increase in volatility or a shift in price direction. A ChoCH usually follows a BOS, confirming a potential trend reversal and suggesting a new phase of market sentiment driven by institutional activities. Fair Value Gaps (Imbalances) These gaps represent areas on the chart where price moves quickly through, leaving a gap that indicates an imbalance between supply and demand. Institutional traders often target these gaps for potential returns, so prices tend to move back to fill them over time. Liquidity In the context of SMC, liquidity refers to the areas where “smart money” is likely to execute large orders due to the availability of opposite market orders. These are areas where stop losses and stop orders (to capture a breakout) are likely resting, usually around key highs or lows, trendlines, and equal highs/lows. The concept states that “smart money” is likely to push the price into these areas to execute large orders before the true market direction unfolds, as in a bull or bear trap. Accumulations/Distributions These phases indicate the period during which “smart money” is either accumulating (buying) or distributing (selling) their positions. Rooted in the Wyckoff theory, an accumulation occurs at lower price levels, often before a significant uptrend, while distribution takes place at higher price levels, typically before a downtrend. Identifying these phases can provide insights into the future market direction favoured by institutional investors. Steps to Trade Smart Money Concepts in Forex Trading SMC requires a nuanced understanding of market dynamics and the ability to interpret signs of institutional involvement. Below, we’ll take an overview of the approach. Traders can apply these steps to real-time forex charts on FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Determining the Trend Using Breaks of Structure (BOS)/Change of Character (ChoCH) Traders can identify the market trend by observing BOS and ChoCH. A trend is typically recognised by a series of higher highs/higher lows (uptrend) and lower lows/lower highs (downtrend). Trend continuation is seen when there's a clear BOS, where the price surpasses a significant high or low, signalling a shift in market direction. Following this, a ChoCH, an abrupt change in market behaviour, may confirm the new trend. Identifying these elements allows traders to align with the market's momentum, providing a strategic framework for setting a direction. Identifying an Order Block The next step involves pinpointing areas where institutional traders are likely participating, often signalled by a BOS or ChoCH. Traders look for the range that initiated this shift (marking an order block), with increased odds of accuracy if there's a pronounced move away from the range to create a fair-value gap or if it aligns with a breaker block. The presence of liquidity near these points, or if it was targeted to initiate the BOS or ChoCH, can further validate the significance of the order block. This phase is crucial for understanding where large volumes of trades are being placed and where the price may revisit before continuing the trend. Finding an Entry Point Once an order block is identified, finding a strategic entry point becomes the focus. Traders typically either position limit orders at the edge of the block or await specific candlestick patterns, such as hammers, shooting stars, or engulfing candles. These signals suggest a possible continuation of the trend, providing a cue for entry. However, other tools, like Fibonacci retracements or indicators, can also be used to identify an entry point within SMC. SMC vs Price Action The Smart Money Concept and price action are both popular trading strategies, yet they approach the market from distinct angles. Price action focuses on analysing past and present price movements to identify patterns or trends without considering external factors. It relies heavily on candlestick patterns, chart formations, and support and resistance levels, making it a strategy based on the technical aspects of trading. This approach is favoured for its simplicity and direct reliance on price data, allowing traders to make decisions based on the immediate market environment. On the other hand, SMC trading delves deeper into the underlying market dynamics, emphasising the influence of institutional investors or “smart money.” It seeks to identify where these major players are likely to enter or exit the market, using concepts like order blocks, liquidity zones, and fair value gaps. Smart money strategies are grounded in the belief that understanding the actions of institutional traders can give retail traders insights into potential market movements before they become apparent to the wider market. While price action is straightforward and relies purely on technical analysis, SMC incorporates a more strategic view, considering the psychological and strategic manoeuvres of the market's most influential participants. Traders might find price action appealing for its clarity and focus on the charts, whereas SMC offers a deeper, albeit more complex, analysis of market forces. Integrating the two can provide a comprehensive trading strategy, leveraging the simplicity and technical focus of price action with the strategic depth offered by SMC. The Bottom Line The Smart Money Concept bridges the gap between retail traders and the elusive strategies of institutional investors, offering a structured approach to deciphering market movements. By understanding and applying SMC principles, traders can navigate the forex market with potentially greater insight and confidence. Opening an FXOpen account provides an excellent avenue for traders eager to apply these advanced concepts in a live trading environment, setting the stage for more informed and strategic trading decisions. FAQs What Is the Smart Money Concept? The Smart Money Concept (SMC) is a trading strategy focused on understanding and leveraging the market movements initiated by institutional investors, such as banks and hedge funds. It posits that by identifying the trading behaviours of these major players, retail traders can make more informed decisions. What Is SMC Strategy in Trading? The SMC forex strategy involves identifying patterns and signals that indicate the involvement of institutional investors. This includes analysing order blocks, liquidity zones, breaks of structure (BOS), changes of character (ChoCH), and fair value gaps. By aligning with these signals, traders aim to position their trades in harmony with the actions of the “smart money.” Which Timeframe to Use for SMC Trading? The choice of timeframe in SMC trading should align with the trader's goals and strategy. Short-term traders may prefer 1-hour or 4-hour charts for quicker insights, while long-term traders might opt for daily or weekly charts to capture broader market trends influenced by institutional movements. Is SMC Better Than Price Action? SMC and price action cater to different aspects of market analysis. While a smart money strategy focuses on institutional movements, price action concentrates on the patterns formed by the price itself. Neither is inherently better; their effectiveness depends on the trader's strategy, market understanding, and comfort with the concepts. Integrating both can offer a comprehensive approach to market analysis. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
7
The Fair Value Gap (FVG)The term "fair value gap" is known by various names among price action traders, including imbalance, inefficiency, and liquidity void. But what do these imbalances mean? They arise when the forces of buying and selling exert considerable pressure, resulting in sharp and rapid price movements. On a chart, a Fair Value Gap appears as a three-candlestick pattern. In a bullish context, an FVG forms when the top wick of the first candlestick does not connect with the bottom wick of the third candlestick. Conversely, in a bearish scenario, the FVG is created when the bottom wick of the first candlestick fails to connect with the top wick of the third candlestick. The gap on the middle candlestick, created by the wicks of the first and third candlesticks, represents the Fair Value Gap. The concept of FVG trading is based on the idea that the market has a natural tendency to self-correct. These price discrepancies or inefficiencies are generally not sustainable over time, and the market often returns to these gaps before continuing in the same direction as the original impulsive move. What are the Types of Fair Value Gaps? 1. Bearish Fair Value Gap A bearish Fair Value Gap occurs when there is a space between the bottom wick of the first candlestick and the top wick of the third candlestick. This gap typically appears on the body of the middle candlestick, and the individual characteristics of each candlestick are not particularly important. What’s crucial in a bearish scenario is that the gap on the middle candlestick results from the wicks of the surrounding candlesticks not connecting. 2. Bullish Fair Value Gap A bullish Fair Value Gap occurs when the top wick of the first candlestick does not connect with the bottom wick of the third candlestick. In this case, the specific direction of each candlestick is not as important. What really matters is that there is a gap in the middle candlestick, where the wicks of the first and third candlesticks have not linked. 3. Inverse Fair Value Gap An Inverse Fair Value Gap is an FVG that has lost its validity in one direction but remains significant enough to influence price movement in the opposite direction. For example, a bullish FVG is deemed invalid if it fails to act as a demand zone. However, it then transforms into an inverse bearish FVG, which may serve as a supply zone capable of holding the price. 4. Implied Fair Value Gap The Implied Fair Value Gap is also a three-candlestick pattern, but it does not feature a gap on the middle candlestick, which is why it’s called an “implied FVG.” Instead, it consists of a larger middle candle flanked by two relatively long wicks from the first and third candles. The “gap” is defined by marking the midpoint of the wick of the first candlestick that touches the middle candle and the midpoint of the wick of the third candle that also touches the middle candle. These two midpoints create the gap. Here are some factors that can lead to the formation of fair value gaps: 1. Economic Data Releases Key economic data releases, such as changes in interest rates or unemployment statistics, can similarly create imbalances. If the data surprises the market, it can trigger a swift price movement in one direction, resulting in a gap. 2. Sudden News Events Unexpected news that significantly affects market sentiment can lead to a rapid increase in buying or selling activity, resulting in a gap as prices adjust to the new information. For instance, if a company unexpectedly reports strong earnings, its stock price may surge, creating a gap on the chart. 3. Market Openings or Closings Gaps may form during periods of low liquidity, such as at market openings or closings. With fewer market participants, even a small amount of buying or selling can cause a noticeable price jump that isn’t quickly countered. 4. Large Institutional Trades Significant trades by institutional investors can also lead to fair value gaps (FVGs). When a hedge fund or financial institution executes a large buy or sell order, it can overwhelm the existing order book, causing a rapid price shift and leaving a gap behind. 5. Weekend Gaps FVG's are often observed between the close on Friday and the open on Monday, reflecting news or events that occurred over the weekend. KEY POINTS TO KNOW - Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are powerful tools traders use to identify market imbalances and inefficiencies. - FVGs occur when buying or selling pressure leads to significant price movements, leaving behind gaps on price charts. - FVGs can be identified through technical analysis involving the analysis of candlestick patterns and price chart patterns. - Traders can categorize FVGs into two types: Undervalued FVGs, where prices are lower than fair value, and Overrated FVGs, where prices are higher.
Education
by TaylorDeMario
4
BTCUSD - BITCOIN seeing strength?Good day traders! Alright. For BTCUSD I'm still seeing the same pattern, however things are starting to look a little more optimistic. The pattern that I've been discussing for weeks now is the series of lower highs and lower lows. Once we break this pattern, then we can start to talk about that move to ATH and ~$85k above ATH. We NEED to break FWB:65K and ideally with above average volume (which I did not discuss in the video). We need a breakout with volume to get some gas in the tank so to speak. If we can do that, it simply increases confidence in the bullish scenario. There's never any certainty in the markets, but from a pattern perspective, we have to break the pattern in order to gain confidence in the next move. Break the pattern to the upside, I believe we'll see new highs. We have yet to break the pattern to the downside, but that is not off the table. I'm simply saying things are looking better from a bullish perspective at this time .
Long
by bitdoctor
25
What are Volume Candles and how to use themVolume Candles are a great chart type you can use to integrate volume analysis into your trading. TradingView is a superb platform that offers this chart type in real-time, so you can immediately get a completely different feel of what the market is actually doing. As an experienced trader, understanding volume candles is crucial in getting a deeper insight into market dynamics. Unlike standard candlestick charts, which focus primarily on price movement, volume candles combine price action with the strength of trading activity (volume). This offers a unique perspective that can give you an edge in reading market sentiment and momentum. What Are Volume Candles? Volume candles are modified candlestick charts where the width of the candle is proportional to the trading volume during the corresponding time period. The typical candlestick elements—open, high, low, and close prices—are still present, but the volume aspect adds an additional layer of information, enhancing the clarity of price action. Key Features of Volume Candles: Height: Represents price movement (just like in regular candlesticks). Width: Indicates the volume of trades within that period. Unique Information You Can Extract from Volume Candles: 1. Volume-Driven Price Action Volume candles show how much trading interest exists at various price levels. When you observe a large volume candle, it tells you that a lot of market participants were active at that price. Conversely, a thin candle signals lower activity. This helps you: A. Identify levels where strong participation occurs (institutional players what I call the puppet master). B. Spot consolidation zones where volume is low, which often precedes significant price moves. 2. Momentum Confirmation High-volume candles that align with price trends suggest strong momentum. Wide Bullish Candles: If you see a wide up candle during an uptrend, it indicates that the buying pressure is backed by solid volume. This gives more credibility to the uptrend and hints at a continued move upward. Wide Bearish Candles: Similarly, a wide down candle during a downtrend signals strong selling pressure. Volume Candle Chart can also be used for day trading purposes where you need to act FAST. This TradingView chart type is extremely good so you don't need to compare the traditional volume bars on the bottom of the chart. IMPORTANT: You must understand the puppet master mentality, which gives you context. *** EXTRA: You can use this theme color.
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by ZoharCho
4
Fed Kicks Off Rate-Cutting Cycle. Why the Muted Market Reaction?Central bank bros met traders’ loftiest expectations with a half-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday. But is that too good to be true and maybe even a signal of some problems with the US economy and looming fears over at the Fed? Trading today isn’t the same as trading yesterday. Even though prices don’t really confirm it — there wasn’t a super-duper rally in stocks. Maybe gold XAU/USD flickered a bit, but it was mostly froth . And here we are — the first day of trading in an environment with lower interest rates. Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, announced on Wednesday the first trim to borrowing costs in four years. The move ushers in a new normal where US interest rates USINTR are projected to continue moving lower from their 23-year high of 5.5%. The easing cycle kicked off with a jumbo-sized 50 bps (basis points) slash. Surprisingly, the Fed went for the juicier, bolder and more aggressive option, leapfrogging the less interesting and exciting cut of 25 bps. First reactions across the board showed investors were hyped to get what they wanted — the broad-based S&P 500 hit an intraday record . Shortly after, however, stocks across the board pulled back and markets became anxious over the outlook as the realization kicked in. If the economy is doing fine, why go big on cuts from the get-go? What’s more, central bankers are keen to ax interest rates by another half point in 2024, ultimately wrapping up the year with the benchmark rate sitting at 4.25% to 4.5%. Christmas may come early — the Fed meets twice more this year, on November 7 and December 18. Better Safe Than Sorry? A super-sized half-point cut could actually be a pre-emptive measure to alleviate a strained economy. But if inflation is now largely in the rearview mirror , what could the problem be? The other mandate. The Fed has a dual mandate of keeping prices in check (inflation) and upholding a stable labor market (jobs). “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress towards price stability,” Jay Powell said at the annual Jackson Hole gathering last month. And indeed, America’s jobs have seen a pronounced slowdown over the past few months. In July, markets added just 89,000 jobs (revised from an initial estimation of 114,000 ). In August, hiring had picked up modestly to 142,000 , but below expectations for 164,000. Pros and Cons of Bumper Cut Essentially, this big-boy cut of 50 bps is a double-edged sword. It cuts into borrowing costs, making money more affordable, potentially stimulating businesses to add more jobs and grow their gig. And it also prompts consumers to take on debt and get that house. But on the flip side, a cut of that magnitude risks stirring up price pressures again. To get to full employment, the Fed faces the challenge of knocked inflation waking up from its slumber. The size of the cut at this particular time doesn’t mean anything without the markets’ reaction to it. Apparently, investors were unimpressed and shrugged it off as no big deal. Looking ahead, however, the stakes are high because stocks are at all-time highs. The S&P 500 touched a record, Big Tech is leading the charge into artificial intelligence and investors can’t own enough of the highflyers Nvidia NVDA , Meta META , Apple AAPL , etc. The actual picture will become clear once markets figure out what the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle means and what to do about it.
SP:SPX
by TradingView
25
Chart Patterns and Key Signals in Live TradingChart Patterns and Key Signals in Live Trading Chart patterns are powerful tools used by traders to predict future price movements. These patterns emerge from the price action on a chart and provide visual signals that help traders make informed decisions. Understanding and recognizing these patterns in live trading can significantly improve your ability to forecast potential price trends and execute successful trades. What are Chart Patterns? Chart patterns form when price movements of a security, such as a stock or currency pair, follow a recognizable formation or trend on a price chart. These patterns represent the collective sentiment of buyers and sellers, indicating periods of consolidation, continuation, or reversal. Traders use these patterns to anticipate where prices may move next and to identify high-probability trading opportunities. Key Types of Chart Patterns Chart patterns can be categorized into two main types: 1. Reversal Patterns: These indicate that the current trend is likely to reverse. 2. Continuation Patterns: These suggest that the current trend will continue after a brief pause. Common Reversal Patterns Head and Shoulders Description: The head and shoulders pattern signals a trend reversal. It has three peaks: a higher peak (the head) between two lower peaks (the shoulders). The neckline connects the lows between the two shoulders. What to Look For: Uptrend before formation: This pattern is more reliable if it follows a strong uptrend. Break of the neckline: The trend reversal is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline, indicating a bearish move. Live Trading Tip: Wait for the price to break the neckline and retest it before entering a short position to reduce false signals. Double Top: Description: A bearish reversal pattern that forms after an uptrend, consisting of two peaks at roughly the same level. What to Look For: Resistance level: The two peaks touch a resistance level but fail to break through. Neckline break: The trend reversal is confirmed when the price breaks below the support level (neckline) between the two peaks. Live Trading Tip: Enter a short trade after the price breaks below the neckline and possibly retests the support as resistance. Double Bottom: Description: A bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend, consisting of two troughs at roughly the same level. What to Look For: Support level: The two bottoms touch a support level but fail to break below. Neckline break: The reversal is confirmed when the price breaks above the resistance level (neckline) between the two troughs. Live Trading Tip: Enter a long trade after the price breaks above the neckline and retests it as support. Common Continuation Patterns Triangles Symmetrical Triangle: Description: A continuation pattern characterized by converging trendlines, where the highs and lows converge toward each other. What to Look For: Breakout: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out of the triangle, either upward or downward, signaling a continuation of the previous trend. Live Trading Tip: Watch for increased volume during the breakout to confirm its validity. Enter the trade in the direction of the breakout. Ascending Triangle: Description: A bullish continuation pattern with a horizontal resistance line and an upward-sloping support line. What to Look For: Resistance breakout: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks above the resistance level, signaling a continuation of the upward trend. Live Trading Tip: Enter a long trade once the price breaks the resistance and volume spikes, indicating strong buying interest. Flags and Pennants Flag: Description: A continuation pattern that looks like a small rectangular consolidation phase after a strong price movement. What to Look For: Strong trend: The flag forms after a sharp price move, followed by a consolidation phase. Breakout: A breakout from the flag pattern confirms the continuation of the previous trend. Live Trading Tip: Enter the trade in the direction of the breakout, especially if accompanied by an increase in volume. Pennant: Description: Similar to the flag, but the consolidation phase forms a small symmetrical triangle instead of a rectangle. What to Look For: Strong trend: A pennant forms after a sharp move, followed by price consolidation. Breakout: The breakout signals a continuation of the previous trend. Live Trading Tip: Trade in the direction of the breakout and ensure there’s an uptick in volume for confirmation. Wedges Rising Wedge: Description: A bearish continuation or reversal pattern where the price forms higher highs and higher lows, but the slope of the highs is steeper than the slope of the lows. What to Look For: Trendlines converging: The wedge narrows as the highs and lows converge. Breakdown: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the lower trendline, signaling a bearish move. Live Trading Tip: Short the trade once the price breaks below the wedge, especially if volume increases. Key Signals to Look for in Live Trading 1. Volume Confirmation Description: Volume plays a critical role in confirming the validity of chart patterns. A breakout or breakdown on low volume can be a false signal, whereas high volume supports the strength of the price movement. What to Look For: Volume Spike on Breakout: Look for a significant increase in volume during breakouts from chart patterns. This indicates that more traders are participating in the move and that it has momentum. Divergence between Price and Volume: If price is moving in one direction but volume is decreasing, it may indicate a weakening trend. 2. False Breakouts Description: A false breakout occurs when the price appears to break out of a pattern but quickly reverses, trapping traders who acted on the breakout. What to Look For: Lack of Follow-Through: After the breakout, if the price doesn’t continue in the breakout direction and instead reverses quickly, this could be a false breakout. Live Trading Tip: To avoid false breakouts, wait for a retest of the breakout level or look for confirmation in volume before entering a trade. 3. Divergence with Indicators Description: Divergence occurs when the price of an asset moves in one direction while an indicator (such as the RSI or MACD) moves in the opposite direction. What to Look For: Bullish Divergence: When price makes lower lows, but the indicator forms higher lows, signaling a potential reversal to the upside. Bearish Divergence: When price makes higher highs, but the indicator forms lower highs, indicating a potential reversal to the downside. Live Trading Tip: Use divergence as a signal to prepare for a trend reversal, especially when combined with chart patterns like double tops or bottoms. Chart patterns are essential for predicting price movements, but they work best when combined with other tools like volume analysis and indicators. As you gain experience in live trading, you'll develop the ability to spot these patterns more easily and understand how to trade them effectively. Always remain patient and look for confirmation signals before entering trades based on chart patterns.
TVC:SILVEREducation
by samstoobad
1
Market Analysis Techniques for TradersMarket Analysis Techniques for Traders Navigating the financial markets demands a strong toolkit of analysis techniques. This comprehensive article introduces traders to key market analysis methods, ranging from fundamental and technical analysis to more specialised approaches like price action and quantitative methods. You can pair your learning with FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to gain the deepest understanding of these techniques. There, you will find the price charts, drawing tools, and indicators necessary for many of these market analysis methods. Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis involves the scrutiny of economic indicators, company financials, and geopolitical factors to assess an asset's intrinsic value. Economic indicators like GDP, employment rates, and interest rates offer a macroeconomic view, while company financials such as earnings, debt ratios, and future projections are microeconomic factors. Fundamental analysts also pay close attention to geopolitical events, like elections or trade wars, which can shift market sentiment. The strength of this approach lies in its thorough, long-term outlook, making it particularly useful for investors in equities and commodities. However, it is time-consuming and often requires a deep understanding of economic theory. For example, Warren Buffet's value-based approach leans heavily on fundamental analysis, emphasising the importance of understanding the intrinsic value of stocks. Technical Analysis Technical analysis diverges from the fundamental approach by focusing solely on past and current price movements and trading volumes. Traders employ various indicators, such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), to predict future price behaviour. Trend lines and support and resistance levels further supplement these indicators, offering visual aids for decision-making. A famous case is Paul Tudor Jones, who successfully predicted the 1987 market crash using technical indicators. He compared the market’s top in 1987 with the previous peak of 1929 and found notable similarities, demonstrating the power of learning technical analysis. The advantage of technical analysis in trading is its applicability across different time frames, from intraday to multi-year trends. However, it can sometimes give false signals, known as "whipsaws," leading to potential losses. Price Action Analysis Price action analysis, while related to technical analysis, is a more focused method that relies on the interpretation of raw price movements instead of using additional indicators. Traders primarily use chart patterns like head and shoulders, double tops and bottoms, and candlestick patterns such as bullish or bearish engulfing to make trading decisions. Like technical analysis, support and resistance levels are also crucial here. One of the advantages of price action analysis is its simplicity: no need for dozens of indicators. On the flip side, it can be subjective and open to interpretation, making it less straightforward for some traders. Munehisa Homma, a 17th-century Japanese rice trader, is often cited as an early pioneer of price action analysis. Utilising candlestick charts, he achieved great success and laid the foundation for modern technical analysis. Quantitative Methods Quantitative analysis employs mathematical and statistical models to evaluate financial assets and markets. Algorithmic trading, a method that automatically executes trades based on pre-set criteria, is a prime example of the use of quantitative techniques. Traders also use backtesting to validate the effectiveness of a trading strategy by applying it to historical data. The quantitative approach offers the benefit of speed and precision, but it also carries risks such as model overfitting, where a strategy works well on past data but fails in real-time trading. One notable firm that has achieved exceptional success through quantitative methods is Renaissance Technologies, a hedge fund that’s achieved annual returns of 30%+ through its sophisticated mathematical models. Sentiment Analysis Sentiment analysis focuses on gauging market psychology by monitoring news, social media, and sentiment indicators. It seeks to understand how collective emotions are driving market trends. Methods for sentiment analysis include text mining of news articles and tweets, as well as tracking investor sentiment indexes like the Fear & Greed Index. While sentiment analysis offers a real-time pulse of market psychology, it is also prone to rapid changes, making it less reliable for long-term trading decisions. Notably, traders during the GameStop short squeeze phenomenon in early 2021 relied on sentiment analysis from online forums, turning what seemed like an undervalued stock into a trading frenzy. Intermarket Analysis Intermarket analysis extends the analytical lens to the relationships between different asset classes, such as equities, commodities, currencies, and bonds. By identifying these correlations, traders can gain insights into how a movement in one market could influence another. The advantage of intermarket analysis is its holistic view of market dynamics, but it also requires a strong grasp of global economics. For instance, in the chart above, we can see the price of crude oil with the price of Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BP (BP) overlaid. There is a strong correlation between crude oil’s trend and the trend of these companies’ share prices. Traders could evaluate the bullishness or bearishness of crude oil to set a bias for XOM and BP’s future direction. Seasonal Analysis Seasonal analysis examines recurring patterns in markets, often influenced by factors like weather, holidays, and fiscal calendars. For example, retail stocks often rise before the holiday shopping season, and energy commodities can be influenced by demand for transport fuel in summer and heating fuel in winter. Tools like seasonal charts help traders identify these trends. However, a major challenge lies in the changing dynamics of markets, which may render some seasonal patterns less reliable over time. Investors who had historically profited from buying stock in winter and selling in summer found this strategy less effective in recent years due to evolving market conditions. The Bottom Line In summary, a well-rounded understanding of diverse market analysis techniques is key to trading success. Whether focused on long-term investments or intraday trades, incorporating these methods can substantially enhance your trading strategy. For those ready to apply these insights in a live trading environment, opening an FXOpen account can serve as the next logical step in your trading journey. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
5
A New President's Potential Impact on Oil Prices1. Introduction The U.S. presidential election in 2024 is set to bring new leadership, with a new president guaranteed to take office. As history has shown, political transitions often have a profound effect on financial markets, and crude oil is no exception. Traders, investors and hedgers are now asking the critical question: how will WTI Crude Oil futures react to this change in leadership? While there is much speculation about how a Democrat versus a Republican might shape oil policy, data-driven insights provide a more concrete outlook. Using a machine learning model based on key U.S. economic indicators, we’ve identified potential movements in crude oil prices, spanning short, medium, and long-term timeframes. 2. Key Machine Learning Predictions for Crude Oil Prices Short-Term (1 Week to 1 Month): Based on the machine learning model, the immediate market reaction within the first week following the election is expected to be minimal, with predicted price changes below 2% for both a Republican and Democratic win. The one-month outlook also suggests additional opportunity. Medium-Term (1 Quarter to 1 Year): The model shows a significant divergence in crude oil prices over the medium term, with a potential sharp upward movement one year after the election. Regardless of which party claims the presidency, WTI crude oil prices could potentially rise by over 40%. This is in line with historical trends where significant price shifts occurred one year post-election, driven by economic recovery, fiscal policies, and broader market sentiment. Long-Term (4 Years): Over the course of the full four-year presidential term, the model predicts more moderate growth, averaging around 15%. The data suggests that, while short-term market movements may seem reactive, the long-term outlook is more balanced and less influenced by the winning party. Instead, economic conditions, such as interest rates and industrial activity, will have a more sustained impact on crude oil prices. 3. Feature Importance: The Drivers Behind Crude Oil Price Movements The machine learning model's analysis highlights that crude oil price movements, especially one year after the election, are primarily driven by economic indicators, rather than the political party in power. Below are the top features influencing crude oil prices: Top Economic Indicators Influencing Crude Oil: Fed Funds Rate: The most significant driver of crude oil prices, as interest rate policies affect everything from borrowing costs to overall economic growth. Changes in the Fed Funds Rate can signal shifts in economic activity that directly impact oil demand apart from the US Dollar itself. Labor Force Participation Rate: A critical indicator of economic health, a higher participation rate suggests a stronger labor market, which supports increased industrial activity and energy consumption, including crude oil. Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI reflects inflation at the producer level, impacting the cost of goods and services, including oil-related industries. Consumer Sentiment Index: A measure of the general public's outlook on the economy, which indirectly influences energy demand as consumer confidence affects spending patterns. Unit Labor Costs: An increase in labor costs can signal inflationary pressures, which could lead to changes in oil prices as businesses pass on higher costs to consumers. This study exclusively uses U.S. economic data, excluding oil-related fundamentals such as OPEC+ supply and demand information, in order to focus on the election’s direct impact through domestic economic channels. Minimal Influence of Political Party on Price Movements: Interestingly, the machine learning model suggests that the political party of the newly elected president has a relatively low impact on crude oil prices. The performance of WTI crude oil appears to be more closely tied to macroeconomic factors, such as employment data and inflation, than the specific party in power. These findings emphasize the importance of focusing on economic fundamentals when analyzing crude oil price movements for longer term exposures, rather than solely relying on political outcomes. 4. Historical Analysis of Crude Oil Price Reactions to U.S. Elections Looking back over the last two decades, the performance of crude oil post-election has varied, depending on global conditions and the economic policies of the newly elected president. Notable Historical Movements: George W. Bush (Republican): In his 2000 election, crude oil dropped nearly 50% within a year, reflecting the broader economic fallout from the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the events of 9/11. In contrast, his 2004 re-election saw oil prices climb 21.5% within a year, driven by the Iraq War and increasing global demand for energy. Barack Obama (Democratic): After his 2008 election, crude oil prices surged by 33.8% within one year, partly due to economic recovery efforts following the global financial crisis. His 2012 re-election saw more modest growth, with an 8.3% rise over the same period. Donald Trump (Republican): His election in 2016 coincided with a moderate 23.8% increase in crude oil prices over one year, as the U.S. ramped up energy production through fracking, contributing to global supply increases. Joe Biden (Democratic): Most recently, crude oil prices skyrocketed by over 100% in the year following Biden’s 2020 victory, driven by post-pandemic economic recovery and supply chain disruptions that affected global energy markets. 5. WTI Crude Oil Contracts: CL and MCL Explained When trading crude oil futures, the two most popular contracts offered by the CME Group are WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) and Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL). Both contracts offer traders a way to speculate or hedge on the price movements of crude oil, but they differ in size, margin requirements, and ideal use cases. WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL): Price Fluctuations: The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $10 change for one contract. Margin Requirements: As of recent estimates, the margin requirement for trading a CL contract is around $6,000, though this can fluctuate depending on market volatility. Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL): Price Fluctuations: 10 times less. The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $1 change for one contract. Margin Requirements: 10 times less, around $600 per contract. Practical Application: During periods of heightened market volatility—such as the lead-up to and aftermath of a U.S. presidential election—traders can use both CL and MCL contracts to navigate expected price fluctuations. Larger traders might use CL to hedge against or capitalize on significant price movements, while retail traders may prefer MCL for smaller, controlled exposure. 6. Conclusion As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, crude oil traders are watching closely for market signals. While political outcomes can cause short-term volatility, the machine learning model’s predictions emphasize that broader economic factors will drive crude oil prices more significantly over the medium and long term. Whether a Democrat or Republican wins, crude oil prices are expected to see a potential increase, particularly one year after the election. This surge, driven by factors such as interest rates, labor market health, and inflation, suggests that traders should focus on these economic indicators rather than placing too much weight on which party claims the presidency. 7. Risk Management Reminder Navigating market volatility, especially during a presidential election period, requires careful risk management. Crude oil traders, whether trading standard WTI Crude Oil futures (CL) or Micro WTI Crude Oil futures (MCL), should be mindful of the following strategies to mitigate potential risks: Use of Stop-Loss Orders: Setting predefined exit points, traders can avoid significant drawdowns if the market moves against their position. Leverage and Margin Control: Overexposure can lead to margin calls and forced liquidation of positions in volatile markets. Position Sizing: Adjusting position sizes according to risk tolerance is vital especially during uncertain periods like elections. Hedging Strategies: Traders might consider hedging their crude oil positions with other instruments, such as options or spreads, to protect against unexpected market moves. Monitoring Economic Indicators: Keeping a close watch on key U.S. economic data can provide valuable clues to future crude oil futures price movements. By using these risk management tools effectively, traders can better navigate the expected volatility surrounding the 2024 U.S. election and protect themselves from significant market swings. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
5
A+ Trade Set ups All From Respecting Simple Levels! We identify high-quality trade opportunities by focusing on key support and resistance levels. By respecting these fundamental price points, traders can enhance their decision-making process. Support levels act as a floor where buying interest tends to emerge, while resistance levels serve as a ceiling where selling pressure usually mounts. Recognizing and adhering to these simple levels helps traders pinpoint entry and exit points more effectively, increasing the probability of successful trades and improving overall trading performance. AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPYEducation
by ThePrintingRoom
4
Gold Rush Sweeps Global Markets: What’s Behind the Record Run?The shiny stuff has outperformed stocks by a lot this year, sparking a debate over gold’s characteristics as an asset: is it just a pet rock that does nothing but sit idle, or is it the ultimate timeless store of value that trounces every competitor in times of uncertainty and gloomy outlook? Gold XAU/USD is so back — the precious metal has outperformed nearly every other megacap asset, including the S&P 500 where 500 of America’s biggest and brightest companies generate returns for shareholders like a restless corporate machine. Since the start of trading this year, gold is up a solid 25% to hit a record high of $2,590 earlier this week. In comparison, the broad-based Wall Street average, the S&P 500 SPX , is up 18% over the same time span. Thank the impatient people who bet on prospects and can’t wait for the rumor to materialize. To a fairly big extent, the gains in gold are driven by the prospects of lower borrowing costs. Not the single cut to interest rates , which would be in the ballpark of 25 basis points to 50 basis points. That’s fairly fresh — way before that, early in 2024, investors were high on hopium that they’ll get as many as six slashes to interest rates. Hopes Fade but Gains Stay Gold didn’t show any signs of fatigue despite the Fed pushing against the consensus views. It plowed through mixed bags of macro reports showing that the US economy was zig-zagging between hot and cold. Ultimately, gold won back its reputation as a preferred investment in times of shifting monetary policy landscapes, brewing geopolitical tensions , and overall uncertainty and gloomy outlook for global markets. The fast-paced, hot-to-the-touch gold market today is in stark contrast to historical performance. During the time frame 2011 through 2018, gold was virtually muted and hugging the flatline with nothing exciting about it. Right now, gold’s everywhere — from the retail trader’s portfolio to the central banks’ vaults. Global central banks, the money-printing machines with infinite reserves, stacked up the bullion to the tune of 483 tons in the first half of the year, says the World Gold Council. It’s a record since record-keeping began. Good Guy Gold But wait, that's not all — gold has buoyed some free riders. Gold-backed assets are partying hard, too. Gold mining companies are whizzing through, riding on massive year-to-date gains with the top performers up about 30%. Exchange-traded funds with exposure to gold are flaunting big gains as well. These gold ETFs barely flash any red on the year with the top players flexing advances by as much as 50%. The Great Portfolio Rotation or What’s Opportunity Cost? By the looks of it, there’s this portfolio rotation into gold in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate cut. The US central bank is getting ready to knock down the cost of borrowing in an effort to alleviate some of the strain on the economy and lean against a possible recession. What’s gold’s role in all that hubbub? Gold gets more attractive amid lower interest rates thanks to something called “opportunity cost.” In a nutshell, higher rates generally benefit fixed-income assets like bonds that get you guaranteed returns. And why jam your money into gold when you can ride out the high-rate wave and churn out 5% on the 10-year bond US10Y . That’s opportunity cost — missing out on fun, gains and dopamine while your hands are full with a non-yielding asset. What we’ve seen so far is a marked shift away from it. Bond yields are falling in anticipation of the Fed’s rate cut, prompting investors to ramp up their long positions in the yellow bars, which are notorious for … well … yielding nothing. In other words, holding gold gets you no yield, interest, or dividend whatsoever, unlike bonds or the US dollar deposits where you can sit around and do nothing and still make money. The prospects of downshifting interest rates have diminished the opportunity cost of non-yielding gold. Apparently, the shiny metal still has it — whenever the right conditions perk up, gold lives up to its standards of being a safe haven and a store of value. What’s your take on gold? Do you have a long position in it or you’re a permabear who’s brave enough to short it at the top? Comment below!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradingView
21
USD/JPY may squeeze if Fed delivers dovish disappointmentUSD/JPY looms as a prime squeeze candidate should the Fed disappoint on extremely dovish market pricing, not only likely to benefit from the probable uplift in US bond yields but also recent shifts in market positioning. USD/JPY staged a decent reversal on Monday after slicing through the Dec 28 low of 140.273, printing a hammer candle on the daily. With RSI (14) nearing oversold territory and breaking the downtrend it’s been in since the start of September, directional risks may be shifting. I’m not rushing into a long trade just yet, but I am keen to see whether the price holds above 140.273 today. If it does, longs could be established with a stop around 139.60 for protection. Make sure you keep positioning front of mind given how volatile the pair has been recently. 143.63 looms as a suitable trade target with only minor resistance at 141.73 located in between. Good luck! DS
Long
by FOREXcom
11
The key to starting a trade is support and resistance points Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- As you study candles, you will learn about trend reversal sections. Therefore, rather than learning the shapes or patterns of candles, when you study them, you will be able to see the support and resistance points and sections made up of the selling area and trend reversal sections in a big picture. Therefore, rather than trying to memorize the shapes or arrangements of candles, it is important to see whether support and resistance points and sections are formed when such shapes, arrangements, and patterns appear. The same goes for other studies related to charts. - As you study candles, you will find that what you have studied appears in the sections where candles are gathered. These areas are drawn as horizontal lines to indicate support and resistance points. However, objective information is needed to conduct trading on the horizontal lines drawn like this. Otherwise, even the support and resistance points you drew will likely become useless lines if you conduct barrack trading because you don't trust them. Be careful because your psychological state will interfere with analyzing the chart. - The easiest way to obtain this objective information is the Heikin Ashi chart and the Renko chart. The Heikin Ashi chart and the Renko chart help you check the trend because they show fewer fakes and sweeps. (Heikin Ashi chart) (Renko chart) Among these, you can immediately see that the Renko chart is a bit easier to find support and resistance points. - You can think of the points near the end of the blocks on the Renko chart as having strong support and resistance points. Therefore, among the horizontal lines drawn on the chart above, the 2800.0 and 4000.0 points are the end points of three blocks, so they can be seen as strong support and resistance points. If you change the Renko chart to a regular candle chart, you can clearly see that it will form support and resistance points or sections. However, since the Renko chart changes the price in blocks, it is difficult to trade at this point. Therefore, the Heikin Ashi chart or Renko chart is good to use when analyzing the chart, but it is difficult to trade. - To compensate for this, we created a horizontal line at the price position using indicators (StochRSI, OBV, CCI, RSI) that have been used for a long time. The horizontal line connected to the current candle position plays the role of the current support and resistance point. And, since the longer the horizontal line, the stronger the support and resistance role, you can see that it plays the role of support and resistance even if it is not connected to the current candle. - The support and resistance points drawn on the Heikin Ashi chart or Renko chart are difficult to use for trading, but you can easily check the support and resistance section by looking at only the 1D chart. However, in order to display support and resistance points with a general candle chart, support and resistance points must be displayed on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. And, the order of charts with strong support and resistance is 1M > 1W > 1D charts. - When you look at the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts using the HA-MS indicator, horizontal lines like the above are displayed. You can display them by changing the line type or line thickness to make them easier to see and then proceed with trading. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The above content corresponds to the method of finding support and resistance points included in general chart-related books. Of course, it is different from the explanation in the chart-related book, but I explained how to use indicators to more clearly indicate support and resistance points. - Even if you trade with the support and resistance points above, it will not work well when you actually trade. This is because you are not familiar with the most important trading strategy in trading. In conclusion, the most important thing is to create a trading strategy, rather than finding the support and resistance points explained above, looking at the trend line, or looking at indicators. However, it is very difficult to create a trading strategy that fits your investment style from the beginning. So, you should practice creating a trading strategy that suits you while trading based on the information of the objective chart. In order to trade, you need to decide on the following three things: 1. Investment period 2. Investment size 3. Trading method and profit realization method The above three things must be determined. No. 1 and 2 are determined according to your investment style. Therefore, it is recommended not to change No. 1 and 2 after you start trading. 3. Based on the information of the actual chart, the buy section, sell section, and stop loss point are determined. In addition, the profit realization method can be determined according to the investment period. The profit realization method is: 1. How to get cash profit 2. How to increase the coin (token) corresponding to the profit There are methods 1 and 2 above. - In order to create a trading strategy, it is important to display all the information you want on the chart before starting the transaction. If you do not, and then display lines on the chart after starting the transaction, psychological factors will be added and displayed, so the possibility of not trusting the lines drawn after starting the transaction increases. To prevent this, it does not matter if you use the indicator added to the HA-MS indicator. The reason is because it is objective information. You should increase profits or reduce losses by adjusting the investment ratio while conducting the transaction using this objective information. - Have a good time. Thank you. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
4
SILVER | THE BIGGEST CUP & HANDLE OF ALL TIME!Apple’s Cup and Handle pattern in the early 2000s is often cited as one of the most significant. After a prolonged downtrend, Apple formed a large cup with a handle from 2000 to 2005, which, after breaking out, has continued to appreciate to this very day. However, Apple's pattern is nothing compared to the current Cup & Handle pattern that exists in silver, whether in size or price. I truly believe that silver is currently the most undervalued asset and will not only attain higher prices than most can imagine but will also rapidly begin to appreciate against gold, which currently has a ratio of 83.75 to 1. This ratio is irrational and unsustainable, as gold and silver are typically mined at a ratio of around 10 to 1. Even current U.S. Treasury Mint coins—Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles—have a current exchange rate of 50 to 1 at face value. Historically, under the gold standard and the Coinage Act of 1834, the ratio was set at 16 to 1. Although this will not happen overnight and could take a decade or more to come to fruition, the unnatural and irrationally low price of silver is coming to an end. The overinflated gold-to-silver ratio will continue to fall as price manipulation ends and true price discovery begins.
TVC:SILVERLong
by MetaShackle
39
You are not optimistic enough about #BTC!The US presidential elections, held every four years, are completely compatible with the CRYPTOCAP:BTC mega bull cycle! After the presidential elections held in 2012\2016 and most recently in November 2020, #bitcoin transitioned to the mega bull process! The issue of high interest rates on the Fed's side has now come to an end. With the easing of interest rates and the presidential election to be held in November, #Bitcoin will transition to the mega bull process!
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by EtherNasyonaL
51