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How to Read the RSI Indicator: The Market's Lie DetectorAttention TradingViewers, market gurus, and Instagram influencers, this one indicator goes hard whenever it’s onto something. Let's talk about the RSI — the Relative Strength Index . This bad boy is like the lie detector test of the market, calling out overhyped moves and under-the-radar opportunities. What’s RSI All About? The RSI is a momentum-based oscillator that captures the speed and change of price movements. It operates on a scale of 0 to 100, and if you know how to read it, it’s like having X-ray vision into the market’s moods. The best part? It’s super easy to use — slap it on any chart, any time frame and let it do its thing. The Numbers Above 70 : Overbought alert! If the RSI shows a reading above 70, the trading instrument may have been partying a little too hard. Anywhere above 70 means that it’s flashing “overbought” – like a sugar rush that’s about to crash. Traders who follow the RSI usually interpret this as a signal to sell and move out of the asset before the line reverses course and dives back under the high-water mark. Sometimes, however, the price keeps climbing well above 70. Below 30 : Now we’re in “oversold” territory – it’s like spotting a hidden gem in a bargain bin. When RSI drops below 30, the market’s saying, “This thing’s been beaten down, but maybe – just maybe – it’s time for a comeback.” Keep in mind that sometimes the dip may keep dipping. How It’s Calculated RSI is all about relative strength — it compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses. Picture a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The RSI score tells you who’s winning the battle right now, but also hints at who might be running out of strength. Trading with RSI Overbought? Maybe Sell (obligatory DYOR) . When RSI hits 70 and above, you might be looking at a market running out of fuel. You may start thinking about trimming your position, or at least keep an eye out for a reversal. After all, what goes up must come down (except maybe Bitcoin BTC/USD ?) Oversold? Maybe Buy (obligatory DYOR) . If the RSI drops to 30 and below, it could be a signal to start looking for a buying opportunity. The market is going through a meltdown and sometimes that’s your cue to go bargain hunting and snap up some discounted assets. Just make sure that your stock or crypto of choice isn’t falling for a specific reason — no indicator can save you from an actual rug pull. The Sweet Spot — Divergences: Ever notice when the RSI and price action don’t agree? That’s called a divergence, and it’s like catching the market in a lie. If the price is making new highs but the RSI isn’t, or vice versa, it’s a clue that something fishy’s going on and you may want to be on the lookout for a sur- price reversal. Bonus Tip: RSI in Different Timeframes Wanna get fancy and earn some bragging rights? Use RSI across different timeframes. A stock might be oversold on the daily but overbought on the weekly. By spotting the trend across different time frames, you can pick your desired time frame to trade in and follow closely. The higher the time frame, the longer the time horizon for the move to actually pan out. So, there you have it – the RSI. It’s not a crystal ball, but it’s pretty close. Use it wisely, and you might just outsmart the market — or at least stay ahead of the next big move. Keep those charts hot, continue learning about technical analysis and go smash those trading goals of yours. 🔥
Education
by TradingView
17
Understanding Dark Pools█ Diving Into Dark Pools In recent years, dark pools have become a significant part of the financial markets, offering an alternative trading venue for institutional traders. But what exactly are dark pools, and how do they impact market quality and price efficiency? This article delves into the comprehensive study titled "Diving Into Dark Pools" by Sabrina Buti, Barbara Rindi, and Ingrid Werner, which sheds light on the complexities of dark pool trading in the US stock market. █ What Are Dark Pools? Dark pools are private financial forums or exchanges for trading securities. Unlike public stock exchanges, dark pools do not display the order book to the public until after the trade is executed, providing anonymity to those placing trades. This lack of pre-trade transparency can help prevent large orders from impacting the market price, which is particularly beneficial for institutional investors looking to trade large volumes without revealing their intentions. █ How Do Dark Pools Work? In dark pools, the details of trades are not revealed to other market participants until the trade is completed. This lack of transparency helps prevent significant price movements that could occur if the order were known beforehand. Dark pools typically execute trades at the midpoint of the best bid and ask price in the public markets, ensuring fair pricing for both parties involved. █ Why Are Dark Pools Used? Dark pools are primarily used by institutional investors who need to execute large trades without revealing their trading intentions. Displaying such large orders on public exchanges could lead to unfavorable price movements due to market speculation and front-running by other traders. █ Benefits of Dark Pools Reduced Market Impact: Large orders can be executed without affecting the stock's market price. Anonymity: Traders can buy or sell significant amounts without revealing their identity or strategy. Lower Transaction Costs: By avoiding the public markets, traders can often reduce the costs associated with large trades. Improved Execution: Dark pools can offer better execution prices due to the lack of market impact and reduced volatility. █ Why Do Large Actors Hide Their Orders Using Dark Pools? Large institutional investors use dark pools to hide their orders to: Avoid Market Manipulation: Prevent others from driving the price up or down based on the knowledge of a large pending trade. Maintain Strategic Advantage: Keep trading strategies and intentions confidential to avoid imitation or counter-strategies by competitors. Achieve Better Prices: Execute trades at more favorable prices by not alerting the market to their actions. █ Actionable Insights for Traders Understand Market Dynamics: Knowing how and why dark pools are used can provide insights into market liquidity and price movements. Monitor Market Quality: Be aware that increased dark pool activity can improve overall market quality by reducing volatility and spreads. Assess Price Efficiency: Recognize that while dark pools can enhance market quality, they might also lead to short-term inefficiencies like price overreaction. █ Key Findings from the Study The study analyzed unique data on dark pool activity across a large cross-section of US stocks in 2009. Here are some of the critical insights: Concentration in Liquid Stocks: Dark pool activity is predominantly concentrated in liquid stocks. Specifically, Nasdaq stocks show higher dark pool activity compared to NYSE stocks when controlling for liquidity factors. Market Quality Improvement: Increased dark pool activity correlates with improvements in various market quality measures, including narrower spreads, greater depth, and reduced short-term volatility. This suggests that dark pools can enhance market stability and efficiency for certain stocks. Complex Relationship with Price Efficiency: The relationship between dark pool activity and price efficiency is multifaceted. While increased activity generally leads to lower short-term volatility, it can also be associated with more short-term overreactions in price for specific stock groups, particularly small and medium-cap stocks. Impact on Market Dynamics: On days with high share volume, high depth, low intraday volatility, and low order imbalances, dark pool activity tends to be higher. This indicates that traders are more likely to use dark pools when market conditions are favorable for large trades. █ Conclusion Dark pools play a crucial role in modern financial markets by allowing large trades to be executed without revealing the trader’s intentions, thus minimizing market impact and reducing costs. For retail traders, understanding the mechanics and implications of dark pools can lead to better-informed trading decisions and a deeper comprehension of market behavior. The study concludes that while dark pools generally contribute to improved market quality by reducing volatility and enhancing liquidity, their effect on price efficiency is nuanced. For small and medium stocks, dark pools can lead to short-term price overreactions, while large stocks remain largely unaffected. The findings underscore the importance of understanding the different impacts on various stock categories to make informed trading decisions. For institutional traders and market participants, understanding the role and impact of dark pools is crucial for navigating the modern financial landscape. By offering an alternative venue for executing large trades discreetly, dark pools play a pivotal role in today's trading ecosystem. █ Reference Buti, S., Rindi, B., & Werner, I. (2011). Diving into Dark Pools. Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics, Fisher College of Business Working Paper Series, 2010-10. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:BTCUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
8
$SKEW CBOE SKEW Index and two recent signalsSKEW is a measure of options prices in the S&P500 Index that divides the options volatilities of puts/calls. How to use the CBOE:SKEW Index gets a bit more cloudy since it isn't always clear or perfect in its "signal generation". But I think it is important to know what it is showing so you can at least decide what the general sentiment and positioning is in the options market for the S&P500 or $SPY. So let's talk about a couple of scenarios: 1. Rising CBOE:SKEW and Rising AMEX:SPY prices. The thinking process behind this combination is that people are selling calls and using the proceeds to buy puts to protect against a market drop. This is a market that is "hedging" as the market goes up. So if people are hedging their longs, they are effectively showing that they are worried about falling prices and that implies the market is "climbing a wall of worry." Markets usually continue to climb in that condition. I have labeled this setup in late May which preceded the advance in stock prices in June. 2. Falling CBOE:SKEW and Falling AMEX:SPY prices. The logic behind this setup is that people are buying calls as stock prices fall, getting more emboldened with price declines, which is a very bearish setup implying lower prices ahead. This is the scenario we had going into the end of July which preceded the drop in August. You can see that CBOE:SKEW has returned to the middle of the range here, so there is no new signal to work from here. Stay tuned for one of these scenarios to set up again. The next variable to use is the level of TVC:VIX to alert us to whether there is active buying of options or selling of options to give us deeper insights into what is likely to happen. Cheers, Tim 10:59AM EST 8/8/2024
S
by timwest
2
Microsoft: More Oversold than During Covid?Microsoft has declined along with other AI names in the last month. How big was the pullback? Some traders may be surprised to know its intensity. The first noteworthy signal on today’s chart is Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). The oscillator hit 24.69 on Monday. That was the lowest reading since August 2015. In other words, MSFT this week was more oversold than March 2020 -- at the depths of the coronavirus selloff. Next, the software giant tested and held its April 25 low around $388. That may suggest support remains in effect. Third, MSFT is trying to hold its 200-day simple moving average for the first time since March 2023. That could indicate the presence of a longer-term uptrend. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TradeStation
2
XAUUSD 8 Aug 2024Based on the latest data, the current price of XAU/USD (Gold Spot US Dollar) is around $2,387.40. Support and Resistance Levels: The current support level is around $2,381, while the resistance level is near $2,391. If the price breaks above the resistance level, we could see further upward momentum. Economic Factors: Fed Rate Decisions: Speculations of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties can also drive investors towards gold, further pushing the price upwards. Entry Price: Entry Type: Limit Order Entry Level: $2387.00 (This is a point of confluence being near a support level and near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent swing low to swing high.) Stop Loss: Stop Loss Level: $2375.00 (Below the recent low and the support zone to avoid getting stopped out by minor fluctuations. This gives a risk of $12 per trade, which is within the 1% risk tolerance.) Target Price: Target Price Level: $2410.00 (A level of high liquidity and potential retracement. This provides a reward-risk ratio of approximately 1.92 ($23 potential reward/$12 risk).) Adjusting Stop Loss to Trail Profits: First Adjustment: Once the price reaches $2395, move the stop loss to break even at $2387. Second Adjustment: Once the price reaches $2400, move the stop loss to $2392 (locking in $5 profit). Final Adjustment: As the price approaches the target of $2410, adjust the stop loss to $2405 to secure more profits while allowing room for the price to reach the target. Trade Execution: Order Type: Limit Buy Order Entry Price: $2387.00 Stop Loss: $2375.00 Take Profit: $2410.00
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by therabbittrades
11
BOJ Rate Hike Causes Unrest in the Stock Markets: What next?When the Bank of Japan hiked its interest rate at the end of July, global markets went into turbulence. We will discuss what currency carry trade is, why the yen carry trade has caused this global volatility, and, importantly, whether the market will resume its uptrend. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Japanese Yen Futures Ticker: 6J 0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
9
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 8-7 : Perfect Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat/Down pattern played out perfectly. Now, as price nears support, we should be looking to position our trading for the next big move higher over the next 5+ trading days. If my research is accurate, the SPY/QQQ should begin to setup a base mid/late tomorrow and start to rally into Friday - carrying into early next week. Watch the video I created this morning to learn more. This short follow-up video will help you understand how my SPY Cycle Patterns work and how you can benefit from their interpretive capabilities. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
What about altcoins, will the "BULLRUN" begin !What about altcoins, will the "BULLRUN" begin ! In this review: >Others Marktecap >Total2 Marketcap >Total3 Marketcap >Others Dominance >BTC Dominanace >ETH/BTC >ETHUSD many forms >ETHUSD/NVDA Lets start with Others Marketcap --We see that the volume is slowly increasing in the retest zone. this is positive for us. When we examine the Rsı levels, we see that it is at the covid level. for such an index, this is "oversold" RSI(14) 1w and Gaussian Channel CM Slingshot and LMACD -------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL2 Marketcap 1w level 1= Accumaltion Trend mildline level 2= Bullrun 1008 passed from the summit to today. That's enough :D Total2 with Keltner Channel ----------------------------- Total3 Marketcap "SAME" 2020 vs 2024 ! -------------------------- Others Dominance is waiting for the UP movement at the channel bottom leve =) ----------------------------------------- ETH/BTC 1w 2016-2024 ------------------ ETHUSD CHart 1/5 Ethereum Log Curve Zones Chart 2/5 RSI Level and 1008 days 2020 vs 2024 Chart 3/5 Keltner Channel // Top, Bottom and Retest zones Chart 4/5 -Bullrun EVE Chart 5/5 CYCLE chart ( just some MATH:D) Parallel Channel MODE ------------------------------------------ TOTAL2/Nasdaq 3...2...1... GO ! ---------------------------------------- ETHUSD/NVIDIA Its Ready =) When you analyse all these chart, the following rings in your head: >>>ALTSEASON is inevitable.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by Cryptollica
18
Think in Probabilities Embracing Uncertainty Your Key To SuccessPicture this: You’re at your trading desk, eyes on the charts, heart pounding as the market swings unpredictably. Do you feel that fear creeping in? Now, imagine knowing that this unpredictability doesn’t have to scare you. Instead, it can be the key to your success. Let's dive into why thinking in probabilities and staying calm in the face of uncertainty can turn trading from a gamble into a calculated path to consistent success. Many traders struggle with uncertainty because they lack a solid, tested system. Trading randomly or without a proven strategy leads to anxiety and inconsistency. But once you have a reliable system that suits your lifestyle and mindset, and you fully understand your edge, you realize that while the outcome of each trade is random, the probabilities of your trading system will work out for you over time. The Role of Probabilities in Trading Trading isn’t about predicting the next big market move; it’s about understanding the odds and working them to your advantage. Each trade is a small part of a larger statistical framework, where the focus shifts from individual outcomes to the bigger picture. Why Is Learning To Think In Probabilities So Important For Trading Success? Reduces Emotional Bias : By thinking in probabilities, you understand that each trade is just one in a series of many. This helps reduce emotional reactions to individual losses or gains, such as revenge trading, doubling up on position sizing, or even smashing your new iPhone against the wall (been there, LOL). For example, if you know that your strategy wins 60% of the time, you won't be devastated by a single loss. You'll see it as part of the statistical outcome. Encourages Rational Decision-Making: Knowing your strategy has an actual edge helps you stick to your plan, even during losing streaks, and avoid impulsive decisions. To know your edge, you need to do plenty of backtesting and forward testing so you can gain confidence in the system. For instance, if you experience a string of losses, understanding that this is normal and statistically probable helps you remain disciplined and not deviate from your strategy. Builds Confidence in Your System : Confidence comes from knowing your strategy is backtested and has a proven edge over a large number of trades. This knowledge helps you stay disciplined and focused on executing your plan. For example, if your backtesting shows a positive expectancy over 1,000 trades, you can trust your system even when short-term results are unfavorable. Things That Have Helped Me Over the Years to Deal With the Uncertainty of Trading Finding or Developing a System/Strategy That Suits You : As humans, we are all different, and this is especially true in trading. Some people are happy to be in and out of the market fast (scalpers) and have the ability to make big decisions quickly under pressure. Others are slower thinkers and like to make decisions carefully, staying in the market for a longer period of time (swing traders). You need to find what you're best at and stick to it. If you have a busy life with work and family, maybe swing trading suits you. If you’re younger and not as busy, then perhaps scalping is your style. Playing Strategy Games and Games of Chance : This may not be something you've heard before, but I've met many traders, including myself, who have found that games like poker can really help your trading by teaching you to think in probabilities. Another game I love to play is chess, as it encourages you to think ahead, and I’ve found it has helped me in my trading over the years. Practicing Visualization : If you've ever read anything on the subconscious mind, you know it’s responsible for 95% of all your automatic behaviors, especially in trading. The subconscious doesn’t distinguish between what is real and what is imagined. This is why visualization is such a powerful tool to help you embrace market uncertainty. By visualizing yourself placing trades confidently, managing risks well, and handling outcomes calmly, you prepare your mind for real trading scenarios. This mental practice reinforces your belief in your system and prepares you for the market's ups and downs. Books That Helped Me Think in Probabilities Reading has been an invaluable part of my journey to understanding probabilities. Here are some books that have profoundly impacted my trading mindset: "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman This book helped me understand how cognitive biases affect decision-making and how to overcome them by thinking more strategically. "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Taleb's insights into the role of chance and randomness in our lives and the markets were eye-opening and changed how I view risk and probability. "Beat the Dealer" by Edward O. Thorp Although this book is about blackjack, Thorp’s exploration of probability and statistics offers valuable lessons for trading. "The Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky Sklansky breaks down the mathematics of poker, showing how to make decisions based on probability, a skill directly applicable to trading. "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham This classic on value investing emphasizes the importance of long-term thinking and understanding market probabilities. "A Man for All Markets" by Edward O. Thorp This autobiography offers a fascinating look at how Thorp applied probability theory to beat the casino and the stock market. "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind" by Yuval Noah Harari Harari’s book provides context on human behavior and decision-making, offering insights into the psychological elements of trading. "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver Silver’s exploration of how we can better understand predictions and probabilities is highly relevant to making informed trading decisions. "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan M. Gardner This book teaches how to improve forecasting skills through careful analysis and thinking in probabilities. Thinking in probabilities was a game-changer for me. It shifted my focus from trying to predict every market move to playing the long game. By embracing this mindset, I turned fear into confidence and uncertainty into strategy. Remember, trading isn’t about guessing the market. It’s about responding with a clear, composed mind. Trust your strategy, know your edge, and let the probabilities work in your favor. This approach transformed my trading journey, and it can do the same for you. Happy trading!
Education
by TheFxAce
13
Jobs Data Giving Recession Vibe. Is the Fed Late to Act (Again)?Why does it seem like the Fed is playing catch-up with the economy? In 2021 and 2022, the US central bank was jamming stimulus at a fast clip. Suddenly it stopped and reversed course to raise interest rates at never-before-seen speed (that’s when officials were saying inflation was transitory). Now, the skyrocketing interest rates are threatening to derail the economy. Or worse — throw it in a recession. The red-hot US labor market is no more. Or at least there wasn’t anything red-hot for America’s workers and job seekers in July (except for maybe the coast-to-coast summer heat). And now financial markets are in limbo. America’s employers added just 114,000 new hires to the workforce — a far cry from the expected 174,000 and even that consensus view was soft. The bigger-then expected slump in US jobs growth fanned concerns over a flailing economy and there was one major player to pin the blame on — the Federal Reserve. What’s the Fed? The Federal Reserve, or just the Fed, is the central bank of the United States. Its daily grind is to keep the economy from veering off a cliff or overheating like a meme stock on WallStreetBets. The Fed is currently headed by Jerome Powell, or Jay Powell, or even JPow if you’re cool enough, and serves a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. For about a year, markets have been building up the conviction that the Federal Reserve should start thinking about cutting rates. But for months, the Fed didn’t even think about talking about cutting rates as a flurry of economic indicators was more or less suggesting that one slash might be a good idea. And now markets fear it may be too late for that. The steep drop in the employment figure for July suggested that the economy has started to crack under the pressure of interest rates sitting at a 23-year high of 5.50%. When rates are high they make borrowing more expensive and discourage businesses and consumers from taking out loans to run their lives better. Instead, they shove their cash in deposit accounts and generate passive, risk-free yield. In a nutshell, high rates = economic contraction; low rates = economic expansion. When rates stay higher for longer, the Fed runs the risk of tilting the economy into the very recession it is fiercely trying to avoid. Talk About Bad Timing The timing for that jobs data couldn’t have been more inconvenient. July’s nonfarm payrolls arrived just two days after the Fed praised the growth of the economy and voted against reducing its benchmark interest rate. To defend this decision, Chairman Jay Powell said that his clique of top central bankers need more good data that shows inflation is heading down toward the bank’s 2% goal. He also went on to say that he “wouldn’t like to see material further cooling in the labor market.” The press conference after that rate call did end on a high note. The Fed boss noted that an interest rate cut was on the table at the next meeting slated for mid-September. The issue, however, is whether a single 25-basis-point cut, as communicated, will be enough. Markets have already ramped up bets for a juicier 50-basis-point reduction to borrowing costs — a more aggressive monetary policy measure that will provide a stronger lean against a faltering economy. And while the difference between jobs added and jobs expected might be a factor, the severe pullback seems more about investors throwing a tantrum. "You should've cut rates, now deal with our unusually strong reaction as we make a statement," kind of play. The painful scenario where the Fed may have fallen behind the curve shook Wall Street and spread into global markets. Stocks in the US are in a free fall. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped into correction territory, dropping 10% from its peak in mid-July. Tech giants , the main driver of the broad-based gains across the major US indexes, are heavily battered. But the selloff is widespread, jolting everything from stocks , to the US dollar to Bitcoin . Add to this an earnings season weighed by investor concerns over spending on artificial intelligence and you’ve got quite a few things to consider before you jump into your favorite stock out there. What Do You Think? Do you think the Fed will trim rates by a bigger 50-basis-point cut in September or even introduce an urgent interest rate cut before their next regular meeting? And are you comfortable betting on beaten-down equities across the board? Let us know your comments below!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
17
Does the Market Rally When the Fed Begins to Cut Rates?The relationship between rate cuts and the stock market, as illustrated in the provided graph, shows that major market declines often occur after the Federal Reserve pivots to lower interest rates. This pattern is evident in historical instances where the Fed's rate cuts were followed by significant drops in the S&P 500. Several factors contribute to this phenomenon, which are crucial for investors to understand. Economic Weakness: Rate cuts typically respond to economic slowdown or anticipated recession. Each instance of the Fed pivoting to lower rates (1969, 1973, 1981, 2000, 2007, 2019) corresponds to significant market declines soon after. Rate cuts signal concerns about economic health, causing investors to lose confidence, as reflected in the graph. Delayed Impact: Rate cuts do not immediately stimulate the economy; it takes time for their effects to propagate. The graph shows that the majority of the market decline occurs after the Fed's pivot, indicating that initial rate cuts were insufficient to halt the downturn. During this lag period, the market may continue to decline as economic data reflects ongoing weakness. Investor Sentiment: Rate cuts can trigger fear among investors, who interpret the move as an indication of severe economic issues. The graph shows substantial percentage drops in the S&P 500 following each pivot, demonstrating how negative sentiment can exacerbate declines. The fear of a worsening economy leads to a sell-off in stocks, contributing to further market drops. Credit Conditions: During economic stress, banks may tighten lending standards, reducing the effectiveness of rate cuts. Post-rate cut periods in the graph align with times of economic stress, where credit conditions likely tightened. Businesses and consumers may not be able to take advantage of lower borrowing costs, limiting economic recovery and impacting the market negatively. Historical examples such as the crises in 2000 and 2007 highlight substantial market drops after rate cuts, as seen in the graph. In both cases, the rate cuts responded to bursting bubbles (tech bubble in 2000, housing bubble in 2007), and the economic fallout was too severe for rate cuts to provide immediate relief. The graph underscores that while rate cuts aim to stimulate the economy, they often follow significant economic downturns. Investors should be cautious, recognizing that initial market reactions to rate cuts can be negative due to perceived economic weakness, delayed policy impact, and deteriorating sentiment.
SP:SPXEducation
by MarkitMaven
5
Panic selling? I'm buying!A triangle is drawn, accumulation which came after active growth, I expect the trend to continue Medium/long term, we'll see what happens in the Autumn, I expect a test of a new all-time high around 5.000 I make purchases in parts based on given values, where the price is now, and I use a spot account and do not use leverage. I believe that this support is the optimal point for opening a mid-term or long-term long position, since we see a test of the trend line and 3.000 where there is strong support
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by Juliia
83
Tesla Fell More Than 12% After Earnings. Where Might It Go Next?CEO Elon Musk of Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA has said that if you believe in the future of his EV company’s FSD technology (short for “full self-driving”), then you should probably be invested in TSLA stock. If you don’t have faith in FSD, then perhaps you shouldn’t be. I don't know about that, but one thing that technical analysts can understand is the stock’s chart, seen here as of midday Wednesday (July 31): As the chart above shows, TSLA rallied heading into release of its earnings on July 23 after the bell, but has mostly pulled back since then -- including falling more than 12% on July 24. Could such action have been forecasted and acted upon? Let’s check it out. The first thing to note is the stock’s inverse head-and-shoulders pattern -- the set of three purple curved lines in the chart above. That pattern is historically bullish. Tesla’s breakout from the admittedly crooked neckline (the downwardly sloping purple line above) ran some 42% to the upside before the stock apexed at $271 intraday on July 11. However, July 11 is in the past. What about the future? As of midday Wednesday, Tesla was still about 15% below its $271 peak. Tesla’s daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) was also postured rather bearishly. The stock’s 12-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) -- denoted by the black line at bottom right in the chart above – was below Tesla’s 26-Day EMA (the orange line above). Add in the fact that the stock’s histogram of its 9-Day EMA (the blue bars at the chart’s bottom right) was below zero and that’s an historically bearish technical pattern. Meanwhile, the stock’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line with the purple background in the chart above) appears neutral, but is curling back in a bullish direction. But what if we erase our inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and make it part of a larger story? Check this out: Tesla’s RSI and MACD are both the same in this chart as they were in the first one, but this graph no longer shows an aged inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that has already run its course. Instead, this chart shows an historically bullish cup-with-handle pattern, as denoted by the big purple arc above. In fact, the diagram above appears to show multiple technical positives for Tesla: • The cup-with-handle pattern has a $271 pivot point, marked with the small purple line at right. • Tesla is trading above both its 50-Day Simple Moving Average (the blue line) and its 200-Day SMA (the red line). • The 50-Day SMA has crossed above the 200-day one, forming a so-called “golden cross.” That’s historically a bullish sign. Things will likely look even better for Tesla if the stock can take back the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to get the swing traders in line. That would likely budge the 9-day EMA’s histogram (the blue bars at bottom right) into positive territory, which is typically bullish. It would also probably push the 12-Day EMA (the black line at bottom right) above the 26-Day EMA (the orange line at right). That’s an historically bullish sign as well. This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. Moomoo makes no representation or warranty as to its adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeline for any particular purpose of the above content. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by moomoo
1
Asymmetric Risk Reward: The Secret to Success in Trading?Be as bold as you want yet protect your capital with the asymmetric risk reward strategy — an approach adopted by some of the greatest market wizards out there. In this Idea, we distill the concept of asymmetric bets and teach you how to risk little and earn big. Spoiler: legendary traders George Soros, Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones love this trick. Every trade you open has only two possible outcomes: you either turn a profit or make a loss. Perhaps the greatest thing you can learn about these two outcomes is the balance between them. The fundamental difference between making money and losing money — the mighty risk-reward ratio . The risk-reward ratio is your trade’s upside relative to the downside you baked in (or realized). Let’s Break It Down 🤸‍♂️ Most traders believe that you have to take huge risks to be successful. But that’s not what the big guys in the industry do with the piles of cash they’ve got. Instead, they try to take the least amount of risk possible with the most upside. That’s what asymmetric risk-reward ratio means. Think of it this way: you invest $1 only if you believe you can ultimately make $5. Now your risk-reward ratio is set at 1:5, or a hit ratio of 20%. Safe to say that you’ll likely be wrong lots of times. But step by step, you can risk another dollar for that $5 reward and build up a good track record or more wins than losses. That way you can be wrong four times out of five and still make money. Let’s scale it up and pull these two further apart. Let’s say you want to chase a juicier profit with a small risk. You can pursue a risk-reward ratio of 1 to 15, meaning you risk $1 to make $15. The odds are very much in your favor — you can be wrong 14 times out of 15 and still break even. What Does This Look Like in Practice? 🧐 Suddenly, the EUR/USD is looking attractive and you’re convinced that it’s about to skyrocket after some big news shakes it up. You’re ready to ramp up your long position. Now comes decision time — what’s a safe level of risk relative to a handsome reward? You decide to use leverage of 1:100 and buy one lot (100,000 units) at the price of $1.10. That means your investment is worth €1,000 but in practice you are selling $100,000 (because of the leverage) to buy the equivalent in euro. In a trade of that size one pip, or the fourth figure after the decimal (0.0001), carries a value of €10 in either direction. If the exchange rate moves from $1.1000 to $1.1100, that’s 100 pips of profit worth a total of €1,000. But if the trade turns against you, you stand to lose the same amount per pip. Now, let’s go to the practical side of things. You choose to widen the gap between risk and reward and aim for profit that’s 15 times your potential loss. You set your stop loss at a level that, if taken out, won’t sink your account to the point of no return. Let’s say you run a €10,000 account and you’ve already jammed €1,000 into the trade. A safe place to set your stop loss would be a potential drawdown of 2%, or €200. In pip terms, that’s equal to 20 pips. To get to that 1:15 ratio, your desired profit level should be 300 pips, aiming for a reward of €3,000. If materialized, the €3,000 profit will bump your account by 30% (that’s your return on equity), while your return on investment will surge 200%. And if you take the loss, you’d lose 2% of your total balance. It’s How the Big Guys in the Industry Do It You’d be surprised to know that most of the Wall Street legends have made their fortunes riding asymmetric bets. Short-term currency speculator George Soros explains how he broke the Bank of England with a one-way bet that risked no more than 4% of his fund’s capital to make over $1 billion in profits. Ray Dalio talks about it when he says that one of the most important things in investing is to balance your aggressiveness and defensiveness. “In trading you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time. If you are not aggressive, you are not going to make money, and if you are not defensive, you are not going to keep money.” Paul Tudor Jones, another highly successful trader, spotlights the skewed risk-reward ratio as his path to big profits. “5:1 (risk /reward),” he says in an interview with motivational speaker Tony Robbins,” five to one means I’m risking one dollar to make five. What five to one does is allow you to have a hit ratio of 20%. I can actually be a complete imbecile. I can be wrong 80% of the time, and I’m still not going to lose.” What’s Your Risk-Reward Ratio? 🤑 Are you using the risk-reward ratio to get the most out of your trades? Do you cut the losses and let your profits run by using stop losses and take profits? Share your experience below and let’s spin up a nice discussion!
Education
by TradingView
7
Trading Idea: Bearish Shark Setup on NZDUSDI wanted to share an interesting setup on NZDUSD that’s been forming for a while. Let’s dive into the details! Current Overview: Bearish Shark Setup: Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) : The setup has been hovering at the PRZ, which some traders might misinterpret as a violation. Key Insights: Having the Right Knowledge Matters : From my 19 years of trading and nearly 16 years of coaching, I’ve seen even experienced traders make mistakes in reading signals like this. It’s not uncommon for traders with 8 years of experience to misjudge such setups. Strategy: Second Chance Entry: Key Level : 0.5935 What to Do: If you missed the initial signal, wait for the market to retest 0.5935 for a second chance entry opportunity. Community Alert: This Trade Alert was triggered at 14:00(SGT) Final Thoughts: Patience and proper signal interpretation are crucial in trading. If you’re looking for a second chance, keep an eye on 0.5935. Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need more insights or if you missed this trade. What’s your take on this setup? Have you seen similar patterns before? Share your thoughts and strategies below! Happy trading, everyone!
Short
by RaynLim
8
MARUTI BULL FLAG BREAKOUT??🚀 MARUTI Breaks Out! 🏁📈 🚀 The bulls are back in the driver's seat! 🐂💥 MARUTI stock has just broken out of a classic bull flag pattern, signaling a potential surge ahead. This technical formation indicates a period of consolidation, followed by a strong continuation of the previous uptrend. 📊💹 For the savvy investors, this is a golden opportunity. The breakout confirms the bullish momentum and points to further gains on the horizon. 🌟📈 As the market buzzes with excitement, remember to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research. The road ahead looks promising, but as always, tread with caution and keep your investment strategy in check. 🧐📚 Join the ride and let's watch MARUTI rev up the engines! 🏎️💨
NSE:MARUTILong
by TheSnop
9
Potential Big Move for Verasity (VRA)? History May Rhyme...Hello there, fellow traders! I’ve been taking a close look at Verasity (VRA) and wanted to share an interesting pattern I’ve noticed on the VRA/USDT chart from KUCOIN. This is my first time publishing an idea, so feel free to counter my idea as I am eager to improve. Before diving in, remember, this is not financial advice (NFA) – always do your own research and invest wisely! Historical Patterns: Looking at the daily chart, Verasity has shown some impressive movements in the past. Check out these key points: Previous Cycle (A to F): Starting Point (A): After a period of consolidation, VRA took off. Peak (F): The price surged by an incredible 36,859.39%! Current Analysis: Potential Bottom (D?): We seem to be at a similar point to previous lows, suggesting a potential new cycle could be beginning. Future Projection (F?): If history repeats, we could see a rise of around 21,059.58% from current levels. Why This Matters: Patterns like these can offer valuable insights, especially for those looking to time their investments. If VRA follows its historical trends, we might be in for a substantial upward movement. Key Levels to Watch: Support Levels: Around the “A” and “D” points, where prices have historically bottomed out. Resistance Levels: The “B” and “F” points, marking significant peaks. Final Thoughts While these patterns are promising, remember that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This analysis is based on historical data and past performance does not guarantee future results. As always, this is not financial advice (NFA). Be sure to conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Happy trading and let’s see where VRA takes us next!
Long
by Popadolis
8
What Lot Size to Use in Forex for $10, $100, $1000 Account I will share with you a simple guide, that will help you to calculate a lot size for your forex trading account easily. In brief, let me explain to you why you should calculate a lot size for your trades. If you trade Forex with Fixed lot, you should be extremely careful. Too big lot size may lead too substantial losses or even blown trading account, while with a too small lot you may miss good profits. To calculate the best lot size, follow these 5 simple steps. 1. Make a list of all Forex pairs that you trade Let's say that you trade only major forex pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD 2. Back test every pair and identify at least 5 past trading setups on each pair Above, you can see 5 last trades on each 6 major forex pairs. 3. Measure stop losses of each trade 4. Find the trade with the biggest stop loss in pips In our example, the biggest stop loss in on GBPUSD pair. It is 34 pips. Remember this number and the name of a currency pair. Why we need to do that? Your lot size will primarily depend on your risk in pips. For example, scalpers may have 10/15 pips stop losses, while swing traders may have even 100 pips stop losses. 5. Open a Forex position size calculator You can use any free calculator that is available. They are all the same. 6. Input your account size, 2% as the risk ratio and a currency pair with the biggest stop loss (GBPUSD in our example) In "stop loss in pips" field, write down the pip value of your biggest stop loss - 34 pips in our example. For the account size of 1000$, the best lot size to use 0.05 standard lot. The idea is that your maximum loss should not exceed 2% of your account balance, while the average loss will be around 1%. Remember to carefully back test your strategy and now exactly your maximum risks in pips, to make proper calculations! ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
10