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Charting the Markets: Top 10 Technical Analysis Terms to KnowWelcome, market watchers, traders, and influencers to yet another teaching session with your favorite finance and markets platform! Today, we learn how to marketspeak — are you ready to up your trading game and talk like a Wall Street pro? We’ve got you covered. This guide will take you through the top technical analysis terms every trader should know. So, kick back, grab a drink, and let’s roll into the world of candlesticks, moving averages, and all things chart-tastic! 1. Candlestick Patterns First up, we have candlesticks , the bread and butter of any chart enthusiast. These little bars show the opening, closing, high, and low prices of a stock over a set period. Here are some key patterns to recognize next time you pop open a chart: Doji : Signals market indecision; looks like a plus sign. Hammer : Indicates potential reversal; resembles, well, a hammer. Engulfing : A larger candle engulfs the previous one, suggesting a momentum shift. Want these automated? There's a TradingView indicator for that. 2. Moving Averages (MA) Next, we glide into moving averages . These are practically lines that smooth out price data to help identify trends over time. Here are the big players: Simple Moving Average (SMA) : A straightforward average of prices over a specific period of days. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) : An average of prices but with more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to new information. 3. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI is your go-to for spotting overbought and oversold conditions. Ranging from 0 to 100, a reading above 70 means a stock might be overbought (time to sell?), while below 30 suggests it could be oversold (time to buy?). Super common mainstay indicator among traders from all levels. 4. Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands consist of a moving average with two standard deviation lines above and below it. When the bands squeeze, it signals low volatility, and when they expand, high volatility is in play. Think of Bollinger Bands as the mood rings of the trading world! 5. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) The MACD is all about momentum. It’s made up of two lines: the MACD line (difference between two EMAs) and the signal line (an EMA of the MACD line). When these lines cross, it can be a signal to buy or sell. Think of it as the heartbeat of the market. 6. Fibonacci Retracement Named after a 13th-century mathematician, Fibonacci retracement levels are used to predict potential support and resistance levels. Traders use these golden ratios (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%) to find points where an asset like a stock or a currency might reverse its direction. 7. Support and Resistance Support and resistance are the battle lines drawn on your chart. Support is where the price tends to stop falling — finds enough buyers to support it — and resistance is where it tends to stop rising — finds enough sellers to resist it. Think of these two levels as the floor and ceiling of your trading room. 8. Volume Volume is the fuel in your trading engine. It shows how much of a stock is being traded and can confirm trends. High volume means high interest, while low volume suggests the market is taking a nap from its responsibilities. 9. Trend Lines Trend lines are your visual guide to understanding the market’s direction. Technical traders, generally, are big on trend lines. You can draw them by connecting at least a couple of lows in an uptrend or at least a couple of highs in a downtrend. They help you see where the market has been and where it might be headed. 10. Head and Shoulders No, it’s not shampoo. The head and shoulders pattern is a classic reversal pattern. It consists of three peaks: a higher middle peak (head) between two lower peaks (shoulders). When you see this take shape in your chart, it might be time to rethink your position. What’s Your Favorite? So there you have it, a whirlwind tour of the top technical analysis terms that’ll help your trading yield better results and, as a bonus, make you sound like a trading guru. What’s your favorite among these 10 technical analysis tools? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Education
by TradingView
18
What Technical Analysis Says Nvidia Stock Might Do From HereNvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is an interesting stock in that it’s up almost 185% over 12 months as of July 17 -- but has rallied and sold off over the past two months. So, what now? Let’s see what the stock’s chart as of July 17 might show us: The first thing you might notice is that NVDA hit a “basing period” from March into May, as denoted by the two pink horizontal lines above. The stock then broke out around May 21, although a sell-off followed beginning around June 21. This sell-off has been supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the earlier breakout, as denoted by the thick purple line at right in the above chart. It also looks to the stock's 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), as denoted by the thin blue line above. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into the neutral zone -- not even close to being in technically overbought or oversold territory – as shown in the blue box above. Lastly, Nvidia’s daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence chart (or “MACD”) is coming off of extended levels in June, with the histogram of the stock’s nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in negative territory for about a month now, as denoted by the green box above. Separately, the MACD’s 12-day EMA remains below the 26-day EMA, as also seen in the green box above. This is historically a bearish pattern. All in, NVDA might be trying to develop a new base of consolidation at recent levels before deciding on whether it's time to break out above the $141.40 level or head back down to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (the thin red line in the chart above). But a word of caution. The stock might also be developing a so-called “double top” pattern, which could be seen as a pattern of bearish reversal. Full disclosure: The author of this article was long Nvidia stock and Nvidia calls as of the time of this writing. This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. Moomoo makes no representation or warranty as to its adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeline for any particular purpose of the above content. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by moomoo
12
Megacaps vs Small Caps: Has Nvidia Done This Before?Nvidia has embodied the megacap growth trend for more than a year. Now there could be signs of sentiment shifting -- at least for a little while. Today’s idea uses two charts to consider potential changes in market conditions. First, Jensen Huang’s semiconductor giant showed some potentially similar patterns in March and June. Both times, it jumped to a record high on strong results and peaked a few weeks later. Both tops had bearish outside days followed by lower highs. Then periods of consolidation set in. MACD also turned lower and Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) slid from overbought conditions. NVDA bottomed 29 sessions after its March 8 reversal day. If a similar period applies this time, it could suggest sideways movement will last through the start of August. In the meantime, traders seem to be focusing on small caps and cyclical sectors like financials and industrials . That brings us to the second chart, a ratio of the Russell 2000 against the Nasdaq-100. It clearly shows small caps’ relative underperformance, which began in mid-2006. The lower study reveals that the ratio jumped 11.65 percent in the last two weeks. That’s the biggest two-week gain since 2002. Some chart watchers may also notice the ratio’s bullish outside candle after hitting an all-time low. Those patterns could also suggest a bottom has occurred. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradeStation
7
Gold Hits Record Highs! Skyrocket Further or Sharp Reversal?4-Hour Time Frame Analysis: Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL): The chart displays a clear upward trend with higher highs and higher lows. This indicates a bullish market structure. Ascending Channel: The price is moving within an ascending channel, showing a steady increase in value. Key Levels: 1-Hour LQZ / Reversal: 2429.940 4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: 2391.394 Potential Take Profit (TP) Levels: TP 1: 2319.385 TP 2: 2288.085 TP 3: 2267.832 Current Price Action: The price has reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel, suggesting a potential reversal or breakout. Traders should watch for confirmation before taking action. 1-Hour Time Frame Analysis: Higher High (HH): Similar to the 4-hour chart, the 1-hour chart also shows a higher high, indicating a bullish trend continuation. Ascending Channel: The price is respecting the ascending channel, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Key Levels: 1-Hour LQZ / Reversal: 2429.940 4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: 2391.394 Current Price Action: The price is at the top of the ascending channel. Traders should look for signs of a reversal or a breakout above this level to gauge further price movements. 15-Minute Time Frame Analysis: Ascending Channel: The 15-minute chart shows a detailed view of the ascending channel with the price closely following this structure. Key Levels: 1-Hour LQZ / Reversal: 2429.940 4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: 2391.394 Current Price Action: The price is currently at the top of the channel, suggesting a potential short-term reversal or continuation depending on the breakout direction. Summary: Bullish Trend: All three time frames show a clear bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. Ascending Channel: The price is moving within an ascending channel on all time frames, which supports the bullish outlook. Key Reversal Zones: Pay attention to the 1-hour and 4-hour LQZ / Reversal points at 2429.940 and 2391.394 respectively. Potential Reversal: The price is currently at the upper boundary of the ascending channel on all time frames. This indicates a potential reversal if the price fails to break out. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering trades..
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
29
Earnings Season to Show if Big Tech Stocks Can Justify AI HypeUpper echelon of tech realm is expected to report the most profits since early 2022 as the bar is set high thanks to the big promise of artificial intelligence. Earnings season is about to hit fever pitch with the biggest names in the corporate world getting ready to deliver spring-quarter financial updates. The bar is set high thanks to the promise of artificial intelligence to rewire how businesses operate, spend and make money. How high exactly? All S&P 500 companies collectively are predicted to knock out the biggest increase in profits in more than two years — year-on-year earnings growth is pinned at 8.8% for the quarter ended June, the highest since the first quarter of 2022. Froth or Not? Stakes are high. The upcoming string of earnings data will show whether big tech high-flyers can justify the AI hype that has propelled stocks to record after record . The S&P 500 has notched more than 36 all-time closing highs this year and is sitting on gains of more than 18% since it started trading in January. The Big Dogs Apparently, optimism is sweeping left and right, lifting valuations of companies big and small. A handful of them have been singled out as the biggest group of winners. And — you guessed it — they’re all involved in the AI narrative. Chipmaking giant Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) and a clique of big tech heavyweights are lined up to show if their earnings and revenue guidance will catch up to the sky-high valuations. Nvidia has more than doubled this year, soaring above $3 trillion in market value. Briefly, it became the world’s largest company . Its peers Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ), Facebook parent Meta (ticker: META ), Apple (ticker: AAPL ) and Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL ) have rocketed to records this year as well. Heavy Concentration The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 fill up about 37% of its worth, which presently gravitates toward $48 trillion. This said, these 10 titans of capitalism contribute 24% to the broad-based index’s earnings — the highest ratio since 1990. To keep going with the numbers, before we dive into what’s coming over the next few weeks, the S&P 500 companies are trading at 21.4 times their projected earnings over the next 12 months. For comparison, the average multiple for a five-year stretch is 19.7. It gets even more interesting when you zoom in and double click on five tech titans — Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. Their price/earnings multiples have ballooned to an average of 34 times projections, up from 28 times. The AI bellwether, Nvidia, has soared to 41 times, from 24 times in January. Against that backdrop, analysts are quick to point out that a correction in stock prices may loom large if these corporate giants can’t beat out their earnings projections. Is there room for disappointment? Stacked Up Against Expectations Let’s go around the table and see what’s coming over the next few weeks. We’ll keep it tight so we’ll only look into the elite Magnificent Seven club . July 23 Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) Year-to-date performance: 23% Revenue guidance: $64 billion Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL ) Year-to-date performance: 33% Revenue expectations: $79 billion Tesla (ticker: TSLA ) Year-to-date performance: 0% ( find out the reasons ). Revenue expectations: $20.16 billion July 31 Meta (ticker: META ) Year-to-date performance: 44% Revenue guidance: $36.5 billion to $39 billion August 1 Apple (ticker: AAPL ) Year-to-date performance: 24% Revenue expectations: $84 billion Amazon (ticker: AMZN ) (date unconfirmed) Year-to-date performance: 30% Revenue guidance: $144 billion to $149 billion August 21 Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) (date unconfirmed) Year-to-date performance: 168% Revenue guidance: $28 billion Let's Hear from You! Are we going to see another blockbuster quarter of record revenue and profits? Or is the AI hype overblown and could this mean big tech may let us down? Share your thoughts below!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
10
Taking On Discipline In StagesOnce you have decided that you need discipline in your trading, knowing where to start can be difficult and overwhelming. There are many pieces to a trading plan, and it's easy to feel overwhelmed. You can break the task into manageable sections and master one discipline at a time, or focus on the the discipline you need. This approach makes the process more manageable and ensures that each aspect of your trading strategy is given the attention it deserves. Trading Plan Components: Each of these sections should have objective rules so there isn't any escape room. Method Rules Entry Rules Stop Rules trailing Stop Rules Exit Rules Journaling Trade Plan for TME, COIN Shane
NYSE:TMEEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
6
What Is a Dead Cat Bounce Pattern, and How Can One Trade It?What Is a Dead Cat Bounce Pattern, and How Can One Trade It? A dead cat bounce is a common pattern in financial markets, often confusing traders with its brief recovery followed by continued decline. Understanding this pattern is crucial for traders aiming to navigate market downturns. This article delves into what a dead cat bounce is, its causes, how to identify it, and strategies for trading it. Understanding the Dead Cat Bounce Pattern A dead cat bounce is a temporary recovery in the price of a declining asset, followed by a continuation of the downtrend. This phenomenon occurs in all types of financial markets, including stocks, forex, and crypto*, and can mislead traders into believing that a market or asset has started to recover, only to see prices fall again. The term "dead cat bounce" originates from the saying that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height." In financial terms, this means that a sharp decline is often followed by a brief, albeit false, recovery. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, many stocks experienced dead cat bounces as they briefly recovered before continuing their downward trajectory. Identifying a dead cat bounce requires careful analysis. For instance, in a dead cat bounce in a crypto* asset, a sudden 10% rise might appear promising. However, if this increase is followed by another decline surpassing the recent lows, it confirms a dead cat bounce. Traders often use volume analysis and resistance levels to spot these patterns, noting that a true recovery is usually accompanied by sustained volume and breaking through significant resistance levels. Characteristics of a Dead Cat Bounce A dead cat bounce is characterised by specific market behaviours that signal a temporary recovery amidst a prolonged downtrend. Recognising these features can help traders avoid being misled by false recoveries. - Sharp Decline Preceding the Bounce: A significant drop in asset prices that breaks through single or multiple support levels. - Brief and Sudden Rebound: The asset experiences a quick, short-lived rise in price. - Low Trading Volume: The bounce usually occurs with lower trading volume compared to the initial decline, indicating weak buyer interest. - Continuation of Downtrend: After the brief rebound, the asset's price continues to fall, often reaching new lows. - Lack of Strong Fundamentals: The recovery lacks strong fundamental support, often driven by short-covering or speculative buying rather than genuine positive news. Causes of a Dead Cat Bounce A dead cat bounce is typically caused by several common factors that create a temporary illusion of recovery in a declining market. - Short-Covering: Traders who have previously sold the asset buy it back to cover their positions, causing a temporary price increase. - Speculative Buying: Some investors buy into the declining asset, hoping to capitalise on what they perceive as a bargain, which briefly drives prices up. - Technical Support Levels: The asset hits a technical support level, prompting a temporary rebound as traders react to these key price points. - Positive News: Positive news related to the asset, such as cost-cutting measures in a company, strong country GDP growth, or even rumours can cause temporary optimism and buying interest. However, while these factors may provide some support for the asset, it’s rare for the market to recover fully. Given that the sharp fall preceding the bounce is often due to a significant shift in fundamentals or indicative of strong selling pressure, the bearish trend is likely to prevail. Identifying a Dead Cat Bounce Identifying a dead cat bounce involves careful analysis of price movements, trading volume, resistance levels, momentum indicators, and market sentiment. Recognising these signals may help traders avoid being misled by temporary market recoveries. Price Movements A dead cat bounce typically follows a sharp decline that clears previous support levels with little resistance, often prompted by significant news releases. After this steep fall, the price may find a temporary base at another support level and begin to rise. However, this recovery generally regains less than 50% of the initial drop. Volume The rebound in a dead cat bounce often occurs on weaker volume, indicating less conviction behind the recovery. This is especially noticeable in assets traded on centralised exchanges, like stocks or crypto*. In forex, assessing volume can be challenging due to its decentralised nature. It’s important to consider the timeframe; daily charts may be most effective for detecting volume patterns in a dead cat bounce, while intraday volumes can be misinterpreted due to natural ebbs and flows as trading sessions progress. Resistance Levels The rebound may fail to break through significant resistance levels, such as a prior support level turned resistance or the last swing high in the downtrend. If the price approaches but cannot surpass these levels and subsequently drops again, it's a strong indication of a dead cat bounce. Monitoring these resistance points helps validate the pattern. Momentum Indicators Using technical indicators like the Stochastic Oscillator or Awesome Oscillator (AO) can provide clues about a dead cat bounce. These indicators may show only a slight improvement or remain in bearish territory, indicating weak momentum. It’s important to recognise that these indicators might show false bullish signals, such as an oversold Stochastic or a bullish AO zero-line crossover, as the bounce begins. Therefore, they may have the most value in detecting continuation, such as a bearish hidden divergence. To explore these indicators among 1,200+ trading tools, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Market Sentiment If broader market conditions and sentiment remain negative or if the news driving the rebound is not substantial, the bounce is likely temporary. It’s important to consider the overall picture and what has fundamentally changed for the asset rather than reacting to temporary retracement. How to Trade a Dead Cat Bounce When a trader recognises a potential dead cat bounce, they might consider entering a short position to capitalise on the continuing downtrend. Here are some key strategies that may potentially help trade this pattern effectively. Since a bounce may sometimes be genuine and lead to a quick recovery, it's prudent for traders to wait for confirmation that the downtrend is ready to continue. This cautious approach also allows for placing a stop loss in a defined area—specifically, just above the high of the bounce. Key Trading Signals Traders typically watch for the last higher low established during the bounce to be traded through. In other words, they wait for the short-term bullish trend to appear to falter with a lower low. As seen in the dead cat bounce chart above, this indicates that the most recent support level during the bounce has failed, signalling the downtrend might continue. Greater confidence in the downtrend continuation can be achieved if the price fails to break through a prior area of resistance or a previous support level now acting as resistance. Momentum Indicators Momentum indicators can be used to confirm that the downtrend is ready to continue. Specifically, a hidden bearish divergence, where the RSI makes a high higher than the high before or at the beginning of the downtrend; the RSI showing the asset is overbought; or the RSI struggling to break above 50 on a slightly higher timeframe (RSI < 50 indicates bearish conditions) can add confirmation. With the MACD, the signal line may cross under the MACD line or struggle to break out of negative territory. Chart Patterns and Candlestick Patterns - Bearish Chart Patterns: Breaking out of patterns like a rising wedge, bearish quasimodo, or descending triangle can confirm the move lower. - Bearish Candlestick Patterns: Patterns such as a shooting star, tweezer top, or marubozu candle can add confluence and confidence to the trade. Setting Stop Loss and Take Profit - Stop Loss: Traders usually set a stop loss just above the high of the dead cat bounce to potentially limit losses if the price unexpectedly rises. - Take Profit: Given the likelihood of another significant downward leg, a take-profit order may be set at the next major support level. This potentially ensures capturing returns before the market finds new support and reverses. Context-Dependent Strategy Ultimately, there is no single way to trade a dead cat bounce in stocks or any other asset. However, using these factors to seek confirmation and waiting for a further breakdown before taking a position can help traders navigate and take advantage of trading on this pattern. The Bottom Line Recognising and understanding a dead cat bounce can potentially help traders avoid false recoveries and optimise their strategies. By carefully analysing market signals and using appropriate trading techniques, traders might better navigate downtrends. To apply these insights and enhance your trading experience, open an FXOpen account today. FAQs What Is a Dead Cat Bounce? The dead cat bounce meaning refers to a temporary recovery in the price of a falling asset, followed by a continuation of the downtrend. It often misleads traders into believing that the market or asset is recovering, only to see prices fall again. What Causes a Dead Cat Bounce? Several factors can cause a dead cat bounce, including short-covering, speculative buying, and hitting technical support levels. Temporary improvements in market sentiment or positive news can also trigger these short-lived recoveries. How to Spot a Dead Cat Bounce? A dead cat bounce can be identified by a sharp decline followed by a brief recovery that regains less than 50% of the initial drop. Low trading volume during the rebound, failure to break significant resistance levels, and weak momentum indicators are key signals. Is a Dead Cat Bounce Bullish or Bearish? A dead cat bounce is a bearish pattern. It represents a brief, false recovery in a downtrend, followed by a continuation of the falling market. How Long Does a Dead Cat Bounce Last? The duration of a dead cat bounce varies depending on the timeframe but is typically short. On a daily chart, it may take between a few days and a few weeks; on a 5-minute chart, potentially less than a few hours. How to Analyse a Dead Cat Bounce? Analysing a dead cat bounce involves considering price action, volume, resistance levels, momentum indicators, and overall market sentiment. Recognising these factors can help identify the potential for a temporary recovery in a declining market. *At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:NFLXEducation
by FXOpen
7
US100 Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel! Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100 , dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains. 🔍 Identifying Key Levels The chart highlights crucial levels and zones influencing the current market behavior: • PMH: Previous Month High, a resistance level where liquidity might accumulate. • PWL & EQL: Previous Week Low and Equal Lows, key levels for potential liquidity captures. • BSL (ATH): Buy-side Liquidity at All-Time High, indicating where traders have placed their buy orders. • SSL: Sell-side Liquidity, indicating where traders have placed their sell orders. • FVG: Fair Value Gap, marking areas of market imbalance. • SMT: Smart Money Technique, at lows with the pair ES. 📊 Key Considerations • Swept PMH and Low Resistance Liquidity: The market has recently swept the previous month high and the low resistance liquidity created. • Strong Displacement Lower: The price displaced strongly lower, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG). • SMT (Smart Money Technique): At lows with the pair ES, indicating potential bearish sentiment. 📉 Current Price Action The market has swept the previous month high and the low resistance liquidity created, leading to a strong displacement lower. This displacement has resulted in the creation of a Fair Value Gap (FVG), which the price is likely to retrace back into before continuing lower. 📈 Bearish Scenario Given the current market sentiment and the strong displacement lower, the bearish scenario is favored: • Retrace into FVG: The price is expected to retrace back into the Fair Value Gap before continuing to move lower. • Targeting Lower Levels: After retracing into the FVG, the price is likely to continue lower, targeting the PWL, EQL, and SSL for potential liquidity captures. 📊 Chart Analysis Summary The market has shown a strong bearish sentiment by sweeping the previous month high and low resistance liquidity, followed by a strong displacement lower. The price is expected to retrace back into the Fair Value Gap before continuing its downward movement, targeting key levels such as the previous week low, equal lows, and sell-side liquidity. The presence of SMT (Smart Money Technique) at lows with the pair ES further supports the bearish sentiment. Understanding these key levels and the current market behavior helps in making informed trading decisions. 🙏 Thank you for joining us! Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning! ⚠️ Disclaimer The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by RealArmin
19
Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis: Why Not Both?Hey there, fellow traders and market mavens! Ever found yourself staring confused at the screen and not making sense of things that happen in trading? So you decided to wander off deep into technical analysis shutting out its other half — fundamental analysis? Or vice versa — you digested every economic report that big media outlets churned out and yet failed to factor in some support and resistance levels? Fear not, for we've got the lowdown on why you don't have to pick sides and go with either the Fibonacci sequence or the latest jobs data . In fact, we're here to tell you why embracing both might just be your secret to trading success. So, grab your charts and financial reports and let's dive into the world where candlesticks meet earnings reports! Technical Analysis: The Lost Art of Tape Reading Technical analysis is like the cool, intuitive friend who always seems to know what's going to happen next. It's all about reading the market's mood through price charts, patterns and indicators. Here's why tech analysis should be in your skill set: Trend Spotting : Ever wished you could predict the next big trend? With moving averages, trend lines and momentum indicators like the MACD, you can ride the waves like a pro surfer and let the market carry your trades into a sea of profits. Timing is Everything : Candlestick patterns and support/resistance levels are your besties when it comes to perfect timing. The more you study them, the more you elevate your chances of entering and exiting trades with ninja-like precision. Market Sentiment : Tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Bollinger Bands give you the scoop on whether the market's feeling overbought, oversold or just right. Learn these if you want to increase the probability of correctly gauging the market’s mood. But hold up, before you get lost in the charts, let's not forget about the fundamentals. Fundamental Analysis: Making Sense of Things If technical analysis is your go-to for instant market vibes, fundamental analysis is the place to figure out why things happened in the first place. Here’s why fundamentals are a big deal and can help you to a) learn what moves markets and b) become fluent in marketspeak and own every trading conversation: Long-Term Vision : While technical analysis can sometimes feel like guesswork, fundamental analysis is spitting facts. Earnings reports, P/E ratios and economic indicators help you see the bigger picture and educate you into a better, more knowledgeable trader. Value Hunting : Ever heard of value investing legends like Warren Buffett? They thrive on finding undervalued gems through rigorous fundamental analysis. And, some say, this approach to investing is not reserved for companies only. It works for crypto, too. Economic Health Check : Understanding GDP growth, interest rates and inflation can feel like having a crystal ball for market trends. And, one big plus is that you’ll become a lot more interesting when you explain things like monetary policy or forward-looking guidance to your uncle at the Thanksgiving table. The Power Couple: Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis Now, here’s the kicker: Why choose one when you can have both? Imagine the synergy when you combine the swift foresightedness of technical analysis with the solid foundation of fundamental analysis. Here’s how to make this dynamic duo work for you: Double-Check Your Entries and Exits : Use technical analysis for pinpointing your entry and exit points but back it up with fundamental analysis to build a convincing narrative of the asset’s long-term potential. Confirm the Trend : Spot a promising trend with technical indicators? Validate it with strong fundamentals to make sure it’s not just a flash in the pan. Risk Management : Technical analysis can help set your stop-loss levels, while fundamental analysis keeps you informed about any potential game-changers in the market. Diversification : Fundamental analysis might show you the hottest sectors right now, while technical analysis can help you call tops and bottoms if an indicator you trust is showing oversold or overbought levels. Wrapping Up So, there you have it, folks! Technical analysis and fundamental analysis don’t have to be opposite camps. Think of them as your dynamic duo, Batman and Robin, peanut butter and jelly — better together. By blending the best of both worlds, you’ll increase your chances of success in trading and do yourself a favor — you’ll get to know a lot and become more interesting! Ready to take your trading game to the next level? Start combining technical and fundamental analysis and watch as your trading strategies transform into a market-crushing masterpiece. Happy trading and may your profits be ever in your favor!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
14
Why Are Bonds Still Crashing?Why are US, UK, and EU bonds still crashing since March 2020? In this video, we are going to study the relationship between bonds, yields, and interest rates, which many of us find confusing. How can we understand them, and why are bond prices leading the yield, followed by interest rates this season? 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US30YEducation
by konhow
9
$NKE Nike, Inc is finally back to CHEAP-ENOUGH levelsMany years ago I had drawn this 1.7-1.3 level in the PSR (or Price-to-Sales Ratio) for NYSE:NKE and the recent smack down for NYSE:NKE stock has put it within reach of the 1.7-1.3 X Sales zone. The RETURN for shareholders has been negative for the last 7 years in NYSE:NKE when adjusted for inflation. The stock is basically unchanged back to 2018 here (not factoring dividends). What is the point of this? When a stock gets sold down on bad news, there is an underlying level of value which will support it from that point forward. There are always portfolio managers looking to invest in stocks that have had solid long term fundamentals with rising sales and earnings and a nearly recession-proof business model. The opposite is also true that there are NO BUYERS for a stock once it gets ridiculously overpriced and no one can justify buying shares are high prices. The only hope you have at that point is for momentum to attract new buyers who aren't paying attention to valuation and because of tax laws that encourage people to hold on for long term capital gains tax rates to kick in for holding periods greater than 1 year. Thanks to TradingView for providing all of this high quality fundamental information AND for the ability to graph this data so we can visualize and see where the value is in the marketplace. The value is down here in NYSE:NKE shares so it is a good time to start buying. Cheers, Tim 3:47PM July 1, 2024 76.67 last +1.30 +1.72%
NYSE:NKELong
by timwest
21
Do Not Overwhelm Your Price Chart! In this article, we will discuss a very important term in trading psychology - paralysis by analysis in trading. Paralysis by analysis occurs when the trader is overwhelmed by a complexity of the data that he is working with. Most of the time, it happens when one is relying on wide spectra of non correlated metrics. That can be various trading indicators, different news outlets and analytical articles and multiple technical tools. Relying on such a mixed basket, one will inevitably be stuck with the contradictory data. For example, the technical indicators may show very bearish clues while the fundamental data is very bullish. Or it can be even worse, when the traders have dozens of indicators on his chart and half of them dictates to open a long position, while another half dictates to sell. Above, you can see an example of a EURUSD price chart that is overwhelmed by various technical indicators: Ichimoku, MA, Volume, ATR support and resistance levels fundamental data As a result, the one becomes paralyzed , not being able to make a decision. Moreover, each attempt to comprehend the data leads to deeper and deeper overthinking, driving into a vicious circle. The paralysis breeds the inaction that necessarily means the missed trading opportunities and profits. How to deal with that? The best option is to limit the number of data sources used for a decision-making. The rule here is simple - the fewer indicators you use, the easier it is to make a decision. EURUSD chart that we discussed earlier can look much better. Removing a bunch of tools will make the analysis easier and more accurate. There is a common fallacy among traders, that complexity breeds the profit. With so many years of trading, I realized, however, that the opposite is true... Keep the things simple, and you will be impressed how accurate your predictions will become. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
18
Nasdaq's Stellar Returns, Potential Risks AheadThe Nasdaq-100 has been a stellar performer since its debut in 1985, rising 22,900% (with dividends reinvested) for a 14.8% compounded annual total rate of return. By comparison, the S&P 500 returned 7,200% over the same period with dividends reinvested, an 11.5% compounded return (Figure 1). Figure 1: Since the inception of the Nasdaq-100 index in 1985, it has outperformed the S&P Source: Bloomberg Professional (XNDX and SPXT) However, the Nasdaq’s outperformance can partly be attributed to higher risk levels. It has been consistently more volatile than the S&P 500 (Figure 2) and has been subject to much greater drawdowns. On March 28, 2000, Nasdaq began a drawdown that reached -81.76% on August 5, 2002 (Figure 3). The total return index didn’t hit a new high-water mark until February 12, 2015. It also had a sharper drawdown during the 2022 bear market. Figure 2: The Nasdaq-100 has nearly always been more volatile than the S&P 500 Source: Bloomberg Professional (XNDX and SPXT), CME Economic Research Calculations Figure 3: From 2000 to 2002, the Nasdaq-100 fell by nearly 82% and didn’t recover until 2015. Source: Bloomberg Professional (XNDX and SPXT), CME Economic Research Calculations A large part of the reason for the Nasdaq’s greater overall return, higher volatility and its heightened susceptibility to deep and long drawdowns is its dependence on one sector: information technology. Since at least the 1990s, Nasdaq has been nearly synonymous with the tech sector. While nearly every sector has at least some presence in the Nasdaq, since its launch in 1999 it has always had a near-perfect correlation with the S&P 500 Information Technology Index (the basis for the S&P E-Mini Technology Select Sector futures launched in 2011). That correlation has never fallen below +0.9 and has sometimes been as high as +0.98. In the past 12 months the correlation has been +0.95 (Figure 4). Figure 4: The Nasdaq-100 has always had extremely high correlations with the tech sector Source: Bloomberg Professional (NDX, S5INFT, S5UTIL, S5ENRS, S5FINL, S5HLTH, S5CONS, S5COND, S5MATR, S5INDU, S5TELS) The preponderance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq is largely a function of history. Nasdaq was founded in 1971 as the world’s first electronic stock market and it began to attract technology companies, in part, because it had more flexible listing requirements regarding revenue and profitability than other venues. Over time the technology ecosystem settled largely on this market and came to dominate the Nasdaq-100 Index. Those who need to minimize tracking risks with respect to the S&P 500 Information Technology Index can do so with the Select Sector futures. However, those who wish to increase or decrease exposure to the technology sector more generally, and for whom tracking risks is a less of a concern can easily increase or reduce their exposure with the Nasdaq-100 futures. Also launched in June 1999 were E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures, which are now turning 25 years old. The contracts caught on quickly, and today trade at more than 668K contracts or $60 billion in notional value each day. E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures offer capital-efficient exposure to the Nasdaq-100 index, and allow investors to trade and track one NQ futures contract versus 100 stocks to achieve nearly identical exposure. These futures also help mitigate risk against the top-heavy nature of the Nasdaq-100 index, where the so-called Magnificent Seven companies—Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Google-parent Alphabet and Tesla—have dominated recently. Broad exposure to this index acts as a hedge if the Magnificent Seven stocks decline. The Nasdaq has also correlated highly in recent years with consumer discretionary stocks as well as telecoms. By contrast, it has typically low correlations with traditional high-dividend sectors such as consumer staples, energy and utilities which tend to be listed on other exchanges. The exception to this rule is during down markets, when stocks tend to become more highly correlated. The Nasdaq also has very different interest rate sensitivities than its peers. For starters, high short-term interest rates seem to benefit the Nasdaq-100 companies as many of them have large reserves of cash that are earning high rates of return by sitting in T-Bills and other short-term maturities. This is a sharp contrast to the Russell 2000 index, which has suffered as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes have increased the cost of financing for smaller and mid-sized firms, which borrow from banks rather than bond holders and don’t usually have substantial cash reserves. By contrast, the Nasdaq has shown a very negative sensitivity to higher long-term bond yields. Many of the technology stocks in the Nasdaq-100 are trading at high earnings multiples. Some have market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion. Higher long-term bond yields are a potential threat because much the value of these corporations is what equity analysts might refer to as their “value in perpetuity,” meaning beyond any reasonable forecast horizon. Typically, such earnings are discounted using long-term bond yields and the higher those yields go, the lower the net present value of those future earnings. Additionally, higher long-term bond yields can also induce investors to switch out of highly volatile and expensive equity portfolios into the relatively less volatile, fixed- income securities. The Nasdaq’s high sensitivity to long-term bond yields may explain why the index sold off so sharply in 2022 alongside a steep fall in the price of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, whose yields were rising in anticipation of Fed tightening and due to concerns about the persistence of inflation. By contrast, the Nasdaq has done well since October 2022 despite the Fed continuing to raise short-term rates through July 2023 and subsequently keeping those rates high. On the one hand, many of the cash-rich Nasdaq companies are benefitting from higher returns on their holdings of short-term securities. On the other hand, they are also benefitting from the fact that higher short-term rates have steadied long-term bond yields by making it clear that the Fed is taking inflation seriously. This isn’t to suggest that the Nasdaq is immune from downside risks. History shows that the risks are very real, especially in the event of an economic downturn. In the 2001 tech wreck recession, the Fed cut short-term rates from 6.5% to 1% but long-term bond yields remained relatively high, which was not a helpful combination for the tech sector. In addition to its 82% decline during the tech wreck recession, it also fell sharply during the global financial crisis, though not as badly as the S&P 500, which had a far larger weighting to bank stocks. This time around, potential threats to the Nasdaq include: The possibility of an economic downturn which could crimp corporate profits. Rate cuts which would reduce the return on cash positions. Large budget deficits and quantitative tightening which could push up long-term bond yields. Possibly tighter regulation of the tech sector in the U.S. and abroad. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by CME_Group
6
NZDJPY Is Showing Weakness after RBNZ Kept Rates UnchangedNZDJPY Is Showing Weakness after RBNZ Kept Rates Unchanged 🚨RBNZ kept the interest rate steady at 5.50%, as expected. After this decision, NZDJPY faced a strong sell-off and appreciated by nearly 88 pips NZDJPY also confirmed a bearish wedge pattern showing further downward movement. However, as I explained previously selling XXXJPY pairs carries a high level of risk. They will begin the bearish wave only when BOJ intervenes in the market. But with the current data, this is what NZDJPY is showing...a small bearish move. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
10
Nike's Drop Will Offer a Great Dip... Soon!Nike's stock has dropped 30% this year and nearly 60% from its 2021 highs. It continues to drop, and now, I am worried that they will soon suspend their dividend to move cash flow into other areas that need to support the business. I believe Nike may reach a low close to its COVID-19 crash levels, presenting a buying opportunity for patient investors as I've marked on the chart with the red circle. As Warren Buffett once said, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." I think that moment is coming with Nike. Here are two tips for buying dips: 1. It can always go lower than you think so it's better to wait for some signs of a reversal rather than perfectly catching the bottom. 2. Set alerts so that you're ready and can get alerted with the time comes. Now, why has Nike fallen like this? Several factors contribute to this decline: 1. Margin Pressures: Rising raw material and labor costs have strained Nike's profitability, causing investor concerns. 2. Product Control Issues: Expanding its product range has led to inconsistent quality and inventory management problems. 3. Excessive Product Range: The overwhelming number of products has confused customers and diluted the brand. 4. Increased Competition: New, agile brands are capturing market share, challenging Nike's dominance. This one is on my watchlist! Let's see what happens next. I'll update you all rather soon.
NYSE:NKE
by scheplick
26
How to Do Your Own Research (DYOR) in Crypto?Hello, Traders! Have you ever heard the phrase “Do Your Own Research,” or DYOR? No, it's neither a trendy clothing brand nor just a catchy phrase — it's an important practice. DYOR has become the primary guiding principle for crypto investors to make informed decisions. Let’s explain what DYOR means and how to conduct your research effectively. What Does DYOR Mean? Why Is It Important? DYOR is a call to action for investors to research and dig into the fundamentals of any asset or project before investing. Sounds simple, right? But why is it so important? Well, think about it this way: the Internet is flooded with all sorts of information, and not all of it is reliable. So, DYOR urges you to dig deep, find the facts, and make your own decisions. It is your shield against misinformation and hype. It’s about diving deep into the project’s details and understanding its technology, team, and market potential. By researching, you’re not just relying on someone else’s opinion — you’re forming educated conclusions. Now that we’ve covered why DYOR is critical, let’s look at some of the ways traders and investors used to do proper research. How to Do Your Own Research? How to Research a Crypto Project? Crypto research involves using various sources and tools to get all the information you need: – Analytical Platforms: Visit popular analytics platforms to get a first impression of the cryptocurrency. These platforms offer essential data, including market capitalization, trading volume, price history, and other key metrics. The numbers can tell you a lot. Take social media and community channels, for example. They can give you a sense of how popular a project is. But here’s the catch: 🚩 watch out for bots and fake accounts. They can skew the numbers and paint an inaccurate picture of real interest. So, ask yourself: Is the community actively engaged? Are conversations genuine and buzzing naturally? You also need to consider factors such as asset price, market capitalization, circulating supply, total supply, daily active users, token/coin holder distribution, and trading volume to get a sense of the project’s progress and the community’s involvement. – White Paper Analysis: It’s a smart move to dive into a project’s core documents, like the White Paper – the project’s manifesto. It’s crafted by the team to pinpoint a problem and lay out how their product, technology, or token/coin plans to solve it. These are the sources you must explore when doing crypto research. Key points also include the technology behind it, the development team, tokenomics, and the project roadmap. – Sentiment Analysis: It is all about working out the general mood of the market or a specific asset. By understanding how investors feel about a cryptocurrency, you can identify whether it is overvalued or undervalued. Tools like the Fear and Greed Index can help track market sentiment. – Competitor Analysis: Analyzing competitors helps you understand the strengths and weaknesses of various projects. Compare technologies, use cases, and market performance to identify the best investment opportunities. – Project Website and Social Media Analysis: A website should provide transparent information about the team and technology. 🚩 include poorly designed websites, missed deadlines, and a lack of transparency. Media activity can offer insights into a project's community and current status. Look out for active and engaged followers, how often the project updates, and what kind of community interactions there are. Questions to Answer Before Investing Before diving into any cryptocurrency investment, it's essential to ask yourself several key questions to ensure you're conducting thorough research. Here's a checklist to guide your DYOR crypto process: What Problem Is the Project Solving? How Does It Differ from Competitors? Does It Follow Its Roadmap and White Paper? What Are the Legal Regulations in Your Country? Has It Raised Funding? Who Are the Investors? Who Are Its Partners and Supporters? How Is It Promoted? What Marketing Strategies Are Used? What Are the Trends on Google and Social Media? What Is the Tokenomics? How Are Tokens Distributed? Are There Any Red Flags? So, doing your own research is more than just a suggestion. Any information you can gather about a crypto project is invaluable and worth the time and effort. The more you know, the better equipped you are to make informed decisions and avoid potential pitfalls. Remember, “Knowledge is power". As Benjamin Franklin famously said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” So, commit to your due diligence—your future self will thank you. D.Y.O.R.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by WhiteBIT
7
How to Trade a Break of a TrendlineHow to Trade a Break of a Trendline Trading broken trendlines is a critical aspect of technical analysis. Understanding how to interpret and act upon the break of trendlines can make a significant difference to a trader's performance. This FXOpen article delves into the intricacies of trading broken trendlines, providing insights, strategies, and risk management techniques to help traders navigate this essential aspect of market analysis. Understanding Trendlines Although you know what trendlines are, let’s briefly go over the subject. Trendlines are foundational tools used in technical analysis to visualise the direction of price movements. Drawing accurate trendlines involves selecting the appropriate highs and lows to connect, so they provide a clear representation of the prevailing trend. According to the established rules, there should be at least two highs/lows to draw a strong trendline. The more points you connect, the more solid the line is supposed to be. There are trendlines in forex, stock, commodity, index, and cryptocurrency* charts. Still, it may be easier to find trendlines on charts of assets experiencing less price volatility. The three primary types of trendlines are: 1. Uptrend lines connect higher lows and act as support levels. They represent bullish market conditions. 2. Downtrend lines connect lower highs and serve as resistance levels. They depict bearish market conditions. 3. Sideways or Range-Bound lines connect comparable highs and lows, indicating a range-bound or consolidating market. Significance of Broken Trendlines Broken trendlines create trading opportunities for traders with different trading styles and risk tolerances. Traders can employ various strategies based on trendlines with breaks, including trend continuation, trend reversal, and breakout strategies. These opportunities can provide traders with entry and exit points to take advantage of changing market dynamics. Identification of Trend Reversals Perhaps the key value of broken trendlines is their role in identifying potential trend reversals. When an established trendline is decisively broken, it often signifies a shift in market sentiment. This break indicates that the previous trend's momentum has weakened or reversed, which can be a vital turning point for traders. In an uptrend, the break of an uptrend line can suggest a potential reversal to a downtrend, and conversely, the break of a downtrend line in a downtrend may signal a potential reversal to an uptrend. If the price breaks the sideways trendline, it usually reflects the end of consolidation and the formation of a new trend, either upward or downward. In the chart above, the price broke above the downward trendline, after which a new uptrend was formed. Confirmation of Price Movements Broken trendlines can act as confirmation signals for other technical analysis tools and patterns. For example, when a trendline break aligns with the formation of chart patterns like head and shoulders or double top and double bottom, it may reinforce the validity of these patterns and their associated price projections. Market Sentiment Broken trendlines can also provide insights into market sentiment and psychology. Traders' reactions to trendline breaks can reveal their beliefs and expectations regarding future price movements, which can impact market dynamics and create trading opportunities. False Trendline Breakout A false trendline breakout, also known as a fakeout or failed breakout, occurs when the price of an asset appears to break a trendline but then reverses direction, often moving back within the trendline's boundaries. False breakouts can mislead traders and can result in losses for those who initiate trades based on the initial breakout signal. Here's a breakdown of the key characteristics of a false trendline breakout: - Initial Breakout. Initially, the price of the asset appears to break above or below a trendline. This break may even be accompanied by increased trading volume, which can provide confirmation of the breakout. - Traders' Reactions. Many traders may interpret the breakout as a significant move and initiate trades in that direction. For example, if a downtrend line is seemingly broken to the upside, traders may start buying, expecting a trend reversal. - Reversal. However, instead of continuing in the direction of the breakout, the price reverses course and moves back within the boundaries of the trendline. This reversal negates the initial breakout signal and can catch traders off guard. Look at the chart above. The price broke above the falling trendline, but the uptrend didn’t form, so the downtrend resumed. There are several reasons for false trendline breakouts, including: - Market Manipulation: In some cases, market participants with substantial resources may deliberately manipulate prices to trigger breakouts and then reverse the market's direction to take advantage of the price swings. - Lack of Confirmation: Fakeouts often occur when there is a lack of confirmation from other technical indicators or factors. Therefore, experienced traders look for multiple signals aligning to increase the validity of a breakout. - Whipsawing Markets: In volatile or indecisive markets, prices can frequently whipsaw above and below trendlines, making it challenging to distinguish between genuine and fakeouts. Factors to Consider When Trading Broken Trendlines To reduce the risk of falling victim to false trendline breakouts, traders often use additional technical analysis tools and confirmation signals. These may include waiting for reversal signals from other indicators, monitoring price action after the breakout, and setting stop-loss orders to potentially reduce losses in case of a reversal. Confirmation Signals Confirmation signals can come from various technical indicators and patterns, including but not limited to: - Candlestick Patterns. Traders look for candlestick patterns that support the direction of the breakout, such as bullish engulfing patterns for an upside breakout and bearish engulfing patterns for a downside breakout. - Oscillators. Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or the Stochastic can provide overbought or oversold conditions, which may help traders confirm the strength of the move. - Chart Patterns. Aside from candlestick patterns, chart formations, such as flags, triangles, or pennants, that coincide with the trendline break may provide additional confirmation. Volume Analysis Analysing trading volume is a crucial component of evaluating broken trendlines. Volume can provide insights into the significance of the breakout and whether it is more likely to be genuine or a false signal. A breakout with increasing volume is generally seen as more reliable. It suggests that market participants are actively involved in the move, increasing the chances of a sustained trend. Conversely, a breakout with decreasing volume may be less reliable, as it indicates a lack of enthusiasm among traders and raises the possibility of a false breakout. Timeframes Considering multiple timeframes is essential when trading broken trendlines. Different periods may provide different perspectives on the trendline break, and using a combination of them may enhance decision-making. Here's how traders approach timeframes: - Higher Timeframes. They start by analysing higher timeframes (e.g., daily or weekly) to identify the primary trend direction. This provides context for the trendline break observed on shorter timeframes. - Lower Timeframes. Market participants use lower timeframes (e.g., hourly or 15-minute charts) for finer entry and exit points. These shorter timeframes may help pinpoint optimal trade execution levels after the trendline break. - Confluence. Traders seek confluence between different timeframes. When a trendline break aligns with a breakout on higher timeframes, it adds strength to the trade signal. Support and Resistance Levels When trading broken trendlines, it's crucial to consider nearby support and resistance levels. These levels can influence price movements and provide valuable context for trade management. Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Tools Fibonacci retracement and extension levels can complement trendline analysis. If the price breaks the Fibo level after a trendline breakout, this may confirm the strength of the newly forming trend. Risk Management and Position Sizing when Trading Trendline Breakouts Effective risk management is paramount when trading trendline breakouts. When trading with trendlines, potential profits and losses can be determined via these techniques: - Setting Stop Losses. Setting appropriate stop-loss orders is a crucial component of risk management strategies. - Proper Position Sizing. Position sizing is a critical aspect of risk management, especially when trading trendline breakouts. It determines the amount of capital allocated to each trade and helps control exposure to potential losses. - Risk-Reward Ratios. Risk-reward ratios are essential for evaluating the potential effectiveness of a trade relative to the risk taken. Common Mistakes to Avoid when Trading Trendline Breakouts Common mistakes when trading trendline breakouts include making decisions based on insufficient confirmation signals, ignoring fundamental factors, and being guided by emotions. By implementing a disciplined approach and being aware of these pitfalls, traders may increase their chances of making informed trading decisions. Ignoring Confirmation Signals One of the most common mistakes traders make when trading trendline breakouts is ignoring confirmation signals. Relying solely on the trendline break itself can lead to premature or misguided trades. Overlooking Fundamentals While technical analysis plays a significant role in trading trendline breakouts, overlooking fundamental factors can be a costly mistake. Traders consider the broader market context and macroeconomic factors that may impact the assets they trade. Fundamental events like economic releases, earnings reports, or geopolitical developments can influence market sentiment and override technical signals. Emotional Trading Emotional trading is a common pitfall for traders, and it becomes particularly pronounced when trading trendline breakouts. Emotions such as fear and greed can lead to impulsive decisions and erode trading discipline. Final Thoughts The ability to trade broken trendlines is a valuable skill for market analysts and traders. Understanding the basics of trendlines, recognising their significance, and implementing effective trendline strategies and risk management techniques may lead to more sound trading outcomes. It's essential to approach broken trendline trading with discipline, patience, and continuous learning to navigate the complexities of financial markets effectively. *At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
6
How Tesla Stock Rebounded Back to Green After 40% Loss in 2024EV king powered higher over the past couple months, charged on hopes of returning growth even as returning growth is nowhere to be seen. But does it matter? Let’s find out. Tesla Erases 40% Drop in Electrifying Rally Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA ) is on a tear. A powerful comeback has shut the haters’ mouths as the electric-car maker is up about 80% from its 2024 nadir back in April. In other words, more than $350 billion have been added to Tesla’s market cap in the span of a couple months. What’s driving the electrifying charge in the popular auto maker, arguably the most popular ? It’s a bunch of factors. But more than anything, it’s investors’ big expectations over returning growth after the car company’s shares were begging to be scooped up by bargain hunters. Tesla stock had slumped about 40% on the year through late April while other big tech giants were busy logging records and getting AI drunk. Take Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) or Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ). Or any of the Magnificent Seven members. They’ve all been celebrated over prospects of artificial intelligence-driven gains. The apparent disconnect between Tesla and the rest of the Mag 7 crew is no longer there. After stringing up a winning streak of eight straight days of winnings through Friday, Tesla shares managed to reel out of their deep 2024 losses and move in the green by about 1%. Deliveries Fuel Investors’ Long Bets Better-than-expected delivery figures underpinned the recent leg up. The Elon Musk-led company shipped 443,956 vehicles globally in the three months ended June, a 4.8% decline from the same quarter last year. And while this drop, the second one in a row, indicated that the business of deliveries didn’t grow, investors got excited about the consensus-beating numbers. Analysts anticipated 439,302 delivered units. It was also better than the first-quarter delivery figure of 386,810 . Optimism about artificial intelligence is also a key factor in steering the share price higher. It’s worth mentioning that Tesla, which recently started churning out profits , has decreased its production rate and manufactured about 411,000 vehicles in the last quarter. Lower production count translates to lower inventories, reduced costs and less pressure to cut prices in order to get rid of cars gathering dust in factories. All that means the company could splurge some cash on other projects in the pipeline and a refresh of existing ones. Elon Musk + AI + Promises = Profits??? The advance of robots and AI-powered assistants is among the top priorities for Elon Musk. Tesla’s second-generation humanoid robot Optimus debuted last week at Shanghai’s 2024 World AI Conference. First released in 2021, Optimus was designed as an everyday AI assistant to help out with things like carrying stuff, cleaning up and cooking. Before it’s launched to the public, Tesla plans to test it out in its factories starting in early 2025. To this, Elon Musk had only one thing to do — slam the short sellers and send them into “obliteration.” ”Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus in volume production,” Musk wrote on X, “anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated.” He went further to call out one specific Tesla permabear — Bill Gates . Buyer Beware! Now on to some concerning reality checks that can make you think twice before plowing your hard-earned money into the EV maker. Tesla’s fleet of vehicles is aging badly. The Model Y is just about to pop the confetti for its fifth birthday. A lack of innovation into Tesla’s best-selling models may strip some of the company’s brand recognition for slick-looking, ultra-modern EVs. What’s more, Tesla faces fierce competition from the East. China’s biggest maker of electric cars BYD (ticker: 1211 ), sold a record number of electric and hybrid cars in the last quarter. And it’s threatening to overtake Tesla as the world’s top EV manufacturer. In June, Tesla’s market share in China dwindled by a worrying 24% from a year ago while the broader sales numbers went up thanks to the rollout of cheaper EV alternatives. BYD’s sales rose 24% in the second quarter to 426,039 EVs. We Want to Hear from You Can Tesla continue its run and keep the profits flowing to fund its risky bets on AI? Judging by the share price increase, investors seem to think so. What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradingView
17
Silver: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: Silver Pattern – resistance stall, continuation Support – $28.70 Resistance – $31.30 Hi, traders. Thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Silver on the daily chart. As per most reports, we have started looking out, highlighting the main trend and key points before moving into the current price action. Looking at the current break higher and resistance point, will we see the current continuation contnue? We have run over what we are looking for to confirm this and some warning signs to watch out for as well. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDLong
by Eightcap
4