WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 79.94 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 79.00 which is a level that lies underneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 82.41 which is a pullback resistance.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Community ideas
Market is on its Upper Band - Its 2nd Camel HumpAll the major markets are testing their upper band channels since their first major hump in the 90s.
The Russell 2000 has reached its second hump and is on the way down. Though the Russell 2000 is the least known among the four indices, it serves as a leading indicator for the other three.
Why?
The Russell 2000 comprises 2000 mid-sized listed companies, which I believe employ the largest workforce in the United States. This means their employees are also the mass consumers who use or buy products and services listed on the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow Jones. When the Russell 2000 is not doing well, mass consumers tend to spend less, and the rest of the indices subsequently follow.
Micro E-mini Futures & Options
Ticker: MYM
Minimum fluctuation:
Outright: 1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Understanding Bearish and Bullish Bat Harmonic Patterns
Understanding Bearish and Bullish Bat Harmonic Patterns: A Professional Guide for Traders
In the dynamic world of trading, identifying potential reversal points is crucial for making informed decisions. Two powerful tools that professional traders often rely on are the Bearish and Bullish Bat Harmonic Patterns. These patterns, grounded in Fibonacci ratios, offer insights into market behavior and help in predicting price movements. This article delves into the intricacies of these patterns, providing a comprehensive guide for traders.
__________________The Bearish Bat Harmonic Pattern_________________________
The Bearish Bat Harmonic Pattern is a reversal pattern that indicates a potential decline in price after an upward correction. Here's how to identify and interpret this pattern:
X-A Leg: The initial move where the price falls from point X to point A.
A-B Leg: The price then retraces upwards from point A to point B, typically reaching 38.2% to 50% of the X-A leg.
B-C Leg: The price falls again from point B to point C, retracing 38.2% to 88.6% of the A-B leg.
C-D Leg: The final leg sees the price rise from point C to point D. Point D is the critical point, expected at the 88.6% retracement level of the X-A leg and coinciding with the 161.8% extension of the B-C leg.
Key Fibonacci Ratios:
A-B: 38.2% to 50% retracement of X-A
B-C: 38.2% to 88.6% retracement of A-B
C-D: 88.6% retracement of X-A and 161.8% extension of B-C
Trading Strategy: Traders should look for selling opportunities around point D, anticipating a downward move following the completion of the pattern.
Entry, Stop-Loss (SL), and Take-Profit (TP) Criteria:
Entry: Enter a short position at or near point D.
Stop-Loss (SL): Place the stop-loss slightly above point X to account for any potential false breakouts.
Take-Profit (TP): Set the first TP at the 61.8% retracement of the C-D leg and the second TP at the 100% retracement of the C-D leg.
_________________________The Bullish Bat Harmonic Pattern_____________________
Conversely, the Bullish Bat Harmonic Pattern signals a potential rise in price after a downward correction. Here are the steps to identify and utilize this pattern:
X-A Leg: The initial move where the price rises from point X to point A.
A-B Leg: The price then retraces downwards from point A to point B, typically reaching 38.2% to 50% of the X-A leg.
B-C Leg: The price rises again from point B to point C, retracing 38.2% to 88.6% of the A-B leg.
C-D Leg: The final leg sees the price fall from point C to point D. Point D is the critical point, expected at the 88.6% retracement level of the X-A leg and coinciding with the 161.8% extension of the B-C leg.
Key Fibonacci Ratios:
A-B: 38.2% to 50% retracement of X-A
B-C: 38.2% to 88.6% retracement of A-B
C-D: 88.6% retracement of X-A and 161.8% extension of B-C
Trading Strategy: Traders should look for buying opportunities around point D, anticipating an upward move following the completion of the pattern.
Entry, Stop-Loss (SL), and Take-Profit (TP) Criteria:
Entry: Enter a long position at or near point D.
Stop-Loss (SL): Place the stop-loss slightly below point X to account for any potential false breakouts.
Take-Profit (TP): Set the first TP at the 61.8% retracement of the C-D leg and the second TP at the 100% retracement of the C-D leg.
______________________Practical Application and Tips_______________________
To effectively utilize these patterns, traders should:
Use Confirmation Indicators: Always combine harmonic patterns with other technical indicators, such as RSI or MACD, to confirm potential reversal points.
Practice Patience: Wait for the pattern to fully develop and reach point D before taking action.
Risk Management: Implement strict risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders, to protect against potential false signals.
Conclusion:
The Bearish and Bullish Bat Harmonic Patterns are powerful tools in a trader's arsenal, providing a structured approach to identifying potential market reversals. By understanding and applying these patterns, traders can enhance their decision-making process and improve their trading performance. Remember, like all technical analysis tools, these patterns are most effective when used in conjunction with other indicators and sound risk management practices. Happy trading!
XLM Stellar in 2024 (deep research)Stellar (XLM)
Stellar is an open-source, peer-to-peer virtual currency network that first appeared in 2015 The network was founded by current chief architect Jed McCaleb, current chief scientist David Mazier, and former lawyer Joyce Kim, who has since left Stellar The network aims to make moving money across borders faster and easier, especially for those without access to traditional banking services.
The Stellar blockchain is a distributed ledger used to transfer digital currencies. The primary token of the Stellar blockchain is XLM. The Stellar blockchain uses the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP), which is different from the proof-of-work mechanism used in Bitcoin. SCP allows for fast and inexpensive transactions and does not require mining, making it more energy efficient Stellar transactions are confirmed within 5 seconds Transaction costs are extremely low: the average transaction cost is a fraction of a US penny.
The Stellar Development Fund was created to support the development and growth of the Stellar network. The goal of the fund is to promote global financial access, literacy, and inclusion. Stellar has a unique feature, Anchors, which are organizations that can hold deposits and make loans. This allows for a network of inputs and outputs for conversion between digital and traditional currencies Stellar is involved in various partnerships and projects to expand financial inclusion and improve cross-border payments For example, in January 2021, the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine announced its cooperation and collaboration with Stellar in the development of Ukraine's digital infrastructure.
Roadmap
The Stellar Development Foundation has published a strategic roadmap for 2023, focusing on three blocks to support and grow the Stellar network, ecosystem, and community:
Block 1: Utility is an indicator of growth - this principle aims to attract more developers to the network by providing utility. By focusing on the dysfunctional elements of the current system, Stellar aims to highlight and address them through the network. This includes bringing top-notch assets. Into the network, expanding access through global ramps, and honing in on use cases.
Block 2: Stellar - the network of choice - this block aims to make Stellar the standard for everyday financial services. The goal is to show that Stellar is a network that will not only survive but will set the standard in the industry.
Block 3: Stellar for Developers - This block aims to support the growth of the Stellar ecosystem by providing a clear path for builders to develop solutions. Stellar aims to make it easier for developers to get online and support them in building real-world solutions.
The roadmap also outlines a focus on expanding payments and remittances, leveraging the movement of digital value to provide financial services such as savings, loans, credit, and other transactions in a more accessible way. Stellar's goal is to make it easier for people to access financial services without creating the difficulties and challenges they face today.
Team
The Stellar team is highly regarded in the cryptocurrency space. They have a wealth of experience and expertise, and key figures such as Jed McCaleb, co-founder of Ripple, and Joyce Kim have been instrumental in the development and growth of Stellar. The team consists of more than 80 experts from various leading gaming fields, which is a testament to the diversity and high caliber of the employees.
In addition, the team includes veterans from industry giants such as Binance, ConsenSys, Google, and Microsoft, further enhancing their credibility and expertise in the cryptocurrency space. Stellar has also partnered with major financial institutions and governments, such as the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, to create an ecosystem of virtual assets and a national digital currency This is a testament to their extensive experience and strong reputation in the industry.
Audit
Stellar has been listed on the Cyberscope platform, which gives Stellar's due diligence score of 88%, indicating a very low-risk level. The security score is 71%, indicating a moderate level of security. Stellar's audit history is not provided in the search. results, but it is noted that Stellar has not been audited by CertiK Additionally, the Stellar Development Fund (SDF) announced the launch of an audited bank that will distribute up to $1 million in security audit credits in coordination with six top-tier audit firms This initiative aims to support the growth and security of the Stellar ecosystem by providing financial assistance for security audits of projects being built on the network.
GitHub
The project repository seems to be quite active. There were 1860 commits in April!
This indicates a significant level of activity in the development and maintenance of the project. The project has an active community of developers contributing to various repositories. These include the core protocol, smart contracts, and multiple tools and resources for developers. The project has released new features and tools such as the Starlight wallet, which allows for private, instant and secure transactions This is a testament to the constant innovation and development of the project.
Ecosystem
The Stellar ecosystem has grown significantly, with many applications and projects coming online.
These include:
StellarX: An easy-to-use peer-to-peer trading platform for trading assets on the Stellar network.
Stellarport: A web-based interface to access the Stellar network, allowing users to trade assets, send payments, and create tokens.
Lobster: A mobile and web wallet for managing Stellar accounts and assets.
StellarTerm: An open-source client for the Stellar network that allows users to access a decentralized exchange and manage their accounts.
Stellar Lumens: The native digital currency of the Stellar network, used as an intermediate currency to facilitate transactions between different assets.
According to the latest data, the total value of assets locked in the Stellar ecosystem is $9.84 million. The high TVL indicates that a significant number of investors uses the protocol and that it has a high level of liquidity TVL in the Stellar ecosystem is a testament to the growing interest and confidence in DeFi's capabilities on the network As the Stellar ecosystem continues to expand, TVL can be expected to continue to grow, reflecting the growing popularity and utility of the network.
Stellar has also made significant strides in smart contracts in recent years with the introduction of Soroban Soroban is a smart contracts platform on Stellar that allows developers to create, deploy and interact with decentralized applications (dapps) on the network The Stellar Development Fund has committed $100 million to the Soroban Adoption Fund to incentivize the development of projects that leverage the network's smart contract capabilities According to the latest data, 466 projects are active on the Stellar network, demonstrating the versatility of the platform and its potential to revolutionize the way financial transactions are conducted.
Tokenization
Tokenization is the process of representing real world assets (RWAs) or financial products as digital assets on the blockchain It is a key feature of the Stellar blockchain network, allowing any developer or enterprise to issue assets on the platform The Stellar blockchain is designed to support the tokenization of assets, including fiat currencies and securities, in a secure and simple way This enables the creation of digital representations of real-world backed assets, which can then be moved around the world around the clock, quickly and at low cost Below are RWA's market capitalization statistics across various networks.
The process of tokenizing an asset on the Stellar network involves four main steps:
1 Creation of the issuing account: The first step is to create an account on the Stellar network that will be used to issue the asset.
2 Creating a distribution account: Next, a separate account is created to hold the issued asset.
3 Add a trust line for the asset to the distribution account: The trust line is a record of the asset and the maximum amount of that asset that the account is willing to hold This step ensures that the distribution account can receive and store the newly issued asset.
4 Transferring the asset from the issuing account to the distribution account: The last step is to transfer the asset from the issuing account to the distribution account.
Stellar's built-in software features allow for asset control, which means issuers can limit the use of an asset and who can own it by setting various configuration flags This provides a high level of flexibility and control for asset issuers.
Tokenizing assets on the Stellar network provides several benefits:
Reduced record keeping: Issuers can reduce the number of internal sources for record keeping by using the blockchain as the primary source of truth for non-PII data.
Increased market access: Issuers can expand their markets by offering their assets to the ins and outs and wallets built on the Stellar network.
Instant settlement: The Stellar network provides instant settlement 24/7, reducing the cost of processing financial transactions.
Interchangeability: Assets created on the Stellar network are interoperable with the rest of the digital asset ecosystem.
Low cost: The Stellar blockchain is known for its low transaction costs, making it an attractive choice for asset tokenization.
Tokenization on the Stellar network thus enables the creation of digital representations of real-world assets, providing a secure, efficient and cost-effective way to transfer and manage assets on the blockchain.
Bridges
One of the most notable bridges is Allbridge, which provides interoperability between Stellar and several other leading blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana, Polygon and Celo This bridge allows users to transfer assets between these networks, utilizing the unique features of each blockchain and enjoying the fast and inexpensive transactions that Stellar is known for Allbridge's integration with Stellar was made possible through a partnership with Ultra Stellar, a key player in the Stellar ecosystem An example of how Allbridge works:
Another significant development in Stellar interoperability was the introduction of Spacewalk, a trust-minimized bridge between Stellar and the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystems Spacewalk enables the transfer of stable tokens from the Stellar network to the Polkadot/Kusama ecosystems, opening up new opportunities for users to access a wide range of DeFi services The Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) also launched the Stellar Bridge Bounty Program, which supports the development of cross-chain solutions on the Stellar network This program has led to the creation of innovative bridge solutions such as Starbridge, which aims to create a robust integration between Stellar and Ethereum.
These bridging and interoperability solutions are critical to the growth and proliferation of the Stellar network, as they enable users to access a wider range of assets and services while taking advantage of Stellar's fast and low-cost transactions As the Stellar ecosystem expands, we can expect to see further developments in bridging and interoperability, further increasing the utility and reach of the network The need for bridges in the race to tokenize real world assets underscores the importance of seamless integration and interoperability in the financial ecosystem By enabling asset transfer between different blockchain networks, bridges play a critical role in facilitating tokenization of real-world assets, which is expected to unlock significant value and create new opportunities for investors and businesses alike As the demand for tokenized assets continues to grow, the design and implementation of bridges will play an important role in meeting this demand and enabling efficient and secure asset transfers between different blockchain networks.
Conclusion
Stellar is a truly outstanding project with a vibrant ecosystem with a significant number of projects and a wide range of opportunities Fast and inexpensive transactions, energy efficiency, and a focus on financial inclusion make it attractive to both developers and users Support for tokenization of real assets further extends the network's capabilities by enabling digital representations of a wide range of financial instruments The development of bridges and interoperability solutions on the Stellar network demonstrates its commitment to creating a more interconnected and accessible financial ecosystem These bridges enable seamless integration with other blockchain networks, extending the reach and utility of the Stellar network and making it an ideal platform for cross-border payments and tokenization of real-world assets.
All of the above factors point to the significant development of the Stellar project, as well as the price of XLM The growing interest in the network
and its adoption, as evidenced by the increasing number of TVLs and the development of bridging, interoperability solutions, suggest a large growth of XLM While it is difficult to predict specific news or events that will trigger the price to rise and get out of accumulation, I have already started accumulating XLM in my portfolio You can familiarize yourself with it at the link below the chart.
Best regards EXCAVO
🔔Everything You need to Know about Ethereum ETF🔔🌐Today seems to be the time to decide about the Ethereum ETF. (⚠️ The cryptocurrency market may get excited when the result is announced, so be careful with your positions⚠️ ).
🔔Let's take a look at what happened to Bitcoin when the Bitcoin ETF was adopted.
When the Bitcoin ETF was approved , Bitcoin corrected about ➖20% and this correction lasted about 12 days . This happened seemed to express the proverb, " Buy the Rumor, Sell the News ".👇
💡So there is a possibility that if Ethereum ETF is approved, Ethereum will be corrected for a while like Bitcoin .
📊Now let's check the Ethereum chart .
🏃♂️Ethereum has managed to break the 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone 🔴 (now the 🟢 Heavy Support zone($3,580-$2,930) 🟢) of Ethereum with the help of the Classic Falling Wedge Pattern . It is currently moving near the 🔴Resistance zone($4,380-$3,950)🔴.
🌊According to the Elliott wave theory , Ethereum seems completed the microwave 3 of main wave 3 . Ethereum seems to be completing microwave 4 of the main wave 3 right now.
📈Let's look at the ETHBTC chart and see how much Ethereum will be affected by the growth or decline of the cryptocurrency market .
📈 ETHBTC seems to be trying to break the important Resistance line and Resistance zone , and this is a good sign for Ethereum and most altcoins. If the cryptocurrency market starts to increase, it seems that Ethereum will get a larger share of this increase. It could be a sign for Altseason .
📈But right now it seems that ETHBTC should have a correction to the Support zone or Fibonacci lines .👇
🔔According to the above explanations , it seems that if you want to add Ethereum and other Altcoins that are on the Ethereum network to your portfolio , it is better to wait for Ethereum to reach the 🟢 Heavy Support zone($3,580-$2,930) 🟢, if ETHBTC also corrects at the same time, it will be a more suitable situation.
🔔If you want to open a position on Ethereum, it is better to have a short position , because if Ethereum ETF is approved , the same scenario as Bitcoin may happen to it, and if it is not approved , the possibility of a fall is very very high , so the risk of a short position may be less now. What is your idea❗️❓
❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If the Ethereum ETF is not approved, you better wait because Ethereum is likely to lose the 🟢 Heavy Support zone($3,580-$2,930) 🟢, and this shock will also affect Bitcoin and other Tokens.
❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Ethereum Analyze ( ETHUSDT ), 4-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Learn from the Pros: Trading Quotes from Trading LegendsSpeculation is as old as the hills, says one of the world’s best traders of all time, Jesse Livermore. In this blog, we give you the best quotes by the best traders — use them to get inspired and realize that success in trading is possible.
Paul Tudor Jones, hedge fund manager, founder of Tudor :
“I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second.”
“If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them. Risk control is the most important thing in trading.”
“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.”
Stanley Druckenmiller, family office manager, founder of Duquesne:
“I don't really like hedging. To me, if something needs to be hedged, you shouldn't have a position in it.”
“I like putting all my eggs in one basket and then watching the basket very carefully.”
“Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig. It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage.”
George Soros, hedge fund manager, founder of Soros Fund Management :
“It's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.”
“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
“My peculiarity is that I don't have a particular style of investing or, more exactly, I try to change my style to fit the conditions.”
Ray Dalio, hedge fund manager, founder of Bridgewater Associates :
“In trading you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time. If you are not aggressive, you are not going to make money, and if you are not defensive, you are not going to keep money.”
“Diversifying well is the most important thing you need to do in order to invest well.”
“To make money in the markets, you have to think independently and be humble.”
Jesse Livermore, stock trader, portrayed in “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”:
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting.”
“It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade, than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.”
“There is nothing new on Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”
Let’s hear from you!
What’s your favorite trading quote or maybe a favorite trader? Let us know in the comments!
Brilliant Basics - Part 1: Trendlines"Champions are brilliant at the basics." - John Robert Wooden, legendary basketball coach. In trading, just like in sports, mastering the fundamentals forms the foundations for exceptional performance.
Welcome to the first part of our educational series, Brilliant Basics . In this series, we'll explore how mastering the fundamentals lays the groundwork for achieving high-level performance in trading. Today, we focus on trendlines, a crucial tool for any trader aiming to understand market momentum.
Simple Elegance
Trendlines are so simple in their design that their importance can often be dismissed. A child could map the swings of a market and tell you whether the line was upward or downward sloping. Yet, this simplicity is precisely what gives trendlines their potency.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The elegance of trendlines lies in their ability to distil market movements into an easily interpretable format. This simplicity does not mean they lack depth; rather, it means they are accessible to all traders, regardless of experience level. Here’s why their simplicity is so important:
Clarity in Chaos: Markets can be noisy and unpredictable, but trendlines help to bring order to this chaos. If drawn correctly, they provide a clear visual representation of the market’s overall direction and volatility.
Universal Application: Trendlines can be applied to any market, on any timeframe. Whether you are trading stocks, commodities, or forex, trendlines work the same way, making them a universal tool in a trader's toolkit.
Consistent Feedback: Trendlines offer immediate visual feedback on price action. If a trendline is respected by the market, it reinforces your analysis. If it is broken, it signals a potential change in momentum or trend.
How to Draw Trendlines Correctly
Drawing trendlines might seem straightforward, but there are specific guidelines to ensure they are both accurate and useful:
1. Identify Swings: Begin by identifying the swing highs and swing lows on your chart. For an uptrend line, connect at least two higher lows. For a downtrend line, connect at least two lower highs. Ensure these points are significant swings and not minor fluctuations.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Avoid Cutting Prices: A trendline should not intersect any price action between the points it connects. Drawing a trendline that cuts through price bars undermines its validity and the potential insights it can offer. The line should clearly touch the chosen swing points without cutting through the price action in between. Draw multiple high quality trendlines rather than a ‘line of best fit’.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Consistency: Maintain a consistent approach when drawing trendlines. Use the same criteria for identifying swing points and avoid forcing a trendline to fit the data. This consistency helps in making objective and reliable trading decisions.
Trendline Fans and Their Insights
A single trendline can offer valuable insights, but using multiple trendlines—forming a trendline fan—can provide a deeper understanding of market momentum and potential changes in trend.
Rising Momentum: In an uptrend, if the subsequent trendlines are steeper, it indicates increasing momentum. Each steeper line shows that buyers are stepping in more aggressively. However, should trendlines increase in steepness exponentially this leaves the trend vulnerable to exhaustion.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Ebbing Momentum: Conversely, if the subsequent trendlines in an uptrend are less steep, it indicates decreasing momentum. This situation suggests that while prices are still rising, the strength of the upward movement is waning.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Practical Applications
Understanding the simplicity of trendlines enhances their practical application in trading. Here’s how you can leverage their elegance:
Momentum Assessment: As we’ve seen with the trendline fans, the steepness of a trendline or progressive steepness of a trendline fan can give a valuable real-time insight into market momentum.
Support and Resistance: Trendlines act as dynamic support and resistance levels. In an uptrend, the trendline or trendline fan serves as a support levels where price may bounce back up upon testing. In a downtrend, the trendline acts as resistance, where price might reverse downward upon touching.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Entry Signals: Trendline breaks can serve as entry signals, especially when used on multiple timeframes. A break above a downtrend line on a lower timeframe, in-line with a bigger picture uptrend could create an attractive buying opportunity. The inverse is true with a break below an ascending trendline on a lower timeframe.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Exit Signals: Trendline breaks can serve as exit signals. A break below an uptrend line or multiple uptrend lines in a trendline fan might indicate a potential reversal and an exit point.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary:
The simple elegance of trendlines makes them an indispensable tool in technical analysis. Their straightforward nature belies the depth of information they can provide, making them accessible yet useful. By mastering the basics of drawing and interpreting trendlines, traders can gain a clearer understanding of market trends and make more informed trading decisions.
As we continue our Brilliant Basics series, stay tuned for Part 2, where we will explore support and resistance levels. Understanding this fundamental concept will further enhance your ability to identify potential reversal zones.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
☄️ SEC GREENLIGHTS ETHEREUM ETF'S! HISTORIC ☄️☄️ Crazy development today as we now know that the SEC has officially greenlit ETF's for Ethereum in a widely anticipated move, helping to further bolster and boost crypto's foothold and position in the financial world, giving many a confidence boost in crypto and helping to set the stage for the role that cryptocurrencies will come to play in the next few years for not one, but many.
☄️ Retail investors and whale's have been waiting to see what the SEC would ultimately decide in it's decision on whether or not to approve ETF's for Ethereum, much like what we've already seen in the last few months with the SEC also approving ETF's for Bitcoin setting the stage for others to enter the crypto space such as Blackrock which itself has seen record Bitcoin inflows this month, even hitting a 6 week high as highlighted in the article linked below:
cointelegraph.com
☄️ That being said as we can see by the chart linked below, Ethereum whales and retail investors alike, took the news well and we can see just how much of a jump we've gotten since then.
☄️ It's a crazy jump, even with the news considered. I mean price jumped from $3100 to $3,700 like nothing even managing to hit $3,900, it's unprecedented but something we'll gladly take, especially after this news it's the kind of positive reaction we like to see.
☄️ Everything considered, the next few days will be pretty pivotal as we'll undoubtedly face retest and traders will be watching things intensely to see whether or not we can break up further or if we'll retrace and get a reversal. Personally I see us retracing, after an impulse move up we almost always see some sort of reversal or retracement. We'll see this battle the next few days as many seek to close positions and take profit while many others in turn will be buying whether it be for FOMO Or in anticipation, hope for prices to move up higher.
☄️ I can see that happening though again, we have had a literal 25% jump from 3100, you don't see that kind of jump everyday, let alone at all in some cases, below I've added two lines to display this ascending channel we've got:
☄️ Personally, I can see this being the make or break it for traders, long as we keep within the channel things are bullish overall but if we fall below and out of the channel then we'll likely drop, retrace and face losing that 200 EMA by which then we'd risk falling even further so I'd definitely keep an eye out for those things and a likely retracement, especially after this impulse wave.
☄️ I just wanted to make a quick post, this has been a historic move and I'm glad I've been able to take part and be here for such an event, I've added a link to an article on the greenlight below as well for reference. Thanks for tuning in and blessing's, here's to a bright future for crypto. 🥂
www.ft.com
~ Rock '
Why longer term charts are importantI took a look at the weekly gold/silver ratio and noticed a few significant patterns. For example, there was a notable acceleration downward following the break of a 3-year uptrend a couple of weeks ago. Additionally, there is support at the 74.65/63 level, which has been in place since January 2022.
This observation reminded me of the importance of examining long-term charts, regardless of your trading time frame. Longer-term charts provide essential context and clarity that short-term charts often lack.
Why everyone should be looking at longer term charts:
1. Identifying Trends
Long-term charts help in identifying significant trends that might not be visible in short-term data.
2. Smoothing Out Volatility
Short-term data is often noisy, with frequent fluctuations that can obscure the underlying pattern. Long-term charts smooth out this volatility, providing a clearer picture of the fundamental movement and reducing the influence of random, short-term events.
3. Contextualizing Current Movements
Long-term charts place current price or economic movements in a broader context. This helps investors and analysts understand whether a recent change is part of a larger trend or not.
4. Historical Comparisons
These charts allow for comparisons with past periods, making it possible to identify cycles, recurring patterns, and historical precedents. This historical perspective can be invaluable for forecasting future movements and making informed predictions.
5. Assessing Risk and Reward
By examining long-term performance, investors can better assess the potential risks and rewards of an investment. Understanding how an asset has performed over various market cycles helps in evaluating its stability and growth potential.
6. Avoiding Emotional Bias
Short-term market movements can evoke strong emotional responses, leading to impulsive decisions. Long-term charts provide a more detached view, helping investors stay focused on long-term objectives and avoid reacting to short-term market noise.
Conclusion
In summary, long-term charts offer a comprehensive view that is critical for understanding trends, reducing noise, contextualizing current events, making historical comparisons, assessing risk, avoiding emotional decisions, developing strategies, and analysing economic cycles. They are an indispensable tool for anyone involved in financial markets or economic analysis, providing the clarity and perspective necessary for informed decision-making.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
GME Gamestop Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn a recent video, I covered a trade idea prior to the Gamestop (GME) bull rally. Since then, we’ve observed a significant bearish movement. I’m closely monitoring the current price level for another potential buying opportunity, provided that price action aligns with my analysis from the video. The market is currently moving sideways, and if we wait for increased volatility above and below the range, we might be able to capitalize on a bullish trend by entering a break re-test and fail of the range on the 15-minute chart if we see higher highs/lows forming.
The video covers critical elements, including trend analysis, price action insights, market structure, and a potential trade setup. Always exercise prudent risk management when trading, and keep in mind that this information is purely educational and not financial advice. 🚀📊
Bitcoin - New all time high soon! (Follow this channel)Bitcoin is breaking out of the bear market structure and creating a new uptrend that will lead to an all-time high! This thesis is supported by the fact that after the halving event, Bitcoin always goes up (statistically, 100% probability). The halving event took place 1 month ago and cut the reward for mines by half. It's recommended to trade with the trend to increase the probability of success in your trades.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been moving in the ascending parallel channel, so you can definitely take advantage of that and buy/sell Bitcoin at the upward sloping trendlines! With TradingView, you can set an alert, and when it hits, you will get notified.
What are the resistances on the way up? As I mentioned, the upward-sloping trendline of the parallel ascending channel is the first one. The second one is the FAIR VALUE GAP (FVGAP) which was created in April 2024. Usually, the start of the GAP and the end of the GAP are strong levels by themselves. You can use these levels for your short-term trades with leverage. These resistances Bitcoin needs to break before a continuation to a new all-time high; I don't see any other significant levels worth mentioning. Always choose the strongest levels to increase the probability of success.
I am bullish on Bitcoin, and I believe we will see prices above 100k in Q3/Q4 2024. Let me know in the comment section - are you still waiting for a big crash to buy the dip? Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
Bitcoin BTC price + CPI US 15.05 will stir up the marketHere is a chart of #BTCUSDT on the 12-hour timeframe.
At first glance, it looks nothing special: a prolonged consolidation on falling trading volumes, everything is natural and natural.
But tomorrow, at 15.05 at lunchtime with the close of the 12hr candlestick, everything can change.
Tomorrow is the announcement of the "fresh" US CPI rate.
Forecast: inflation will decrease from 3.5% to 3.4%.
Declining inflation = a good signal for the growth of financial markets.
But the tweet from Mr. Biden adds some "spice".
President Biden: wants to give new home buyers $400 per month for 2 years to help people with housing.
This is either a pre-election promise or a good opportunity to start the “printing press”
And now for a bit of conspiracy theorizing:
Let's assume for a moment that Biden knows a little more than we do. And tomorrow it will be announced that inflation has fallen not to 3.4% but to 3.2% or even 3%.
This will definitely cause a powerful surge and growth in the market.
The last thing that comes to mind is how massively $ were printed and distributed in the spring of 2020 as financial aid during COVID-19.
Do you remember how the crypto market grew then in 20\21 from an additional portion of “retail's crazy money”?)
So where do you think the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price will go in 24 hours?
👍 towards $71000
👎🏿 towards $56500
GameStop Stock Evokes Dreams of Rocket Ships and Diamond HandsShares of the video game store tested retail traders’ survival skills. But the meme stock madness also bamboozled the pros.
In the span of just a few regular trading sessions, with some stomach-churning pre-market action in between, GameStop once again made headlines. Roughly three years ago, Keith Gill — known as “Roaring Kitty” on the internet (mostly Reddit) — triggered a huge rally in the shares of a little known video game retailer called GameStop NYSE:GME .
The Hidden Gem
Roaring Kitty took a big long position in GameStop for his belief that it was a company with a lot of potential. And at the same time, he blamed the big bad hedge funds for keeping a lid on share-price growth by shorting the living thing out of it.
Mr Kitty’s thesis caught the attention of fellow retail traders on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets chat board, a place where self-described “degens” exchange fast-churning trading ideas. Soon after, shares were flying high, riding on gains of more than 2,000%. GameStop was set free and institutional investors got smoked.
These were the good old days of speculative pumps and the absolute power of like-minded individuals seeking the thrill of quick profit and adrenaline rush. And — it seems — we’re back at it again with the meme stock corner going fully bananas.
Roaring Comeback
Roaring Kitty’s X account switched the lights on after three years of silence. In a rather vague post, he published a drawing of a man leaning forward . Boy, did that get understood in all the possible ways. Shares took off by as much as 75% a day after that post went live. A breakneck rally went on for a few more days, evoking dreams of rocket ships and diamond hands.
A week later, none of that is there anymore. Shares are not only back where they were before the surge — they’re doing worse. The rollercoaster ride lifted the stock from $20 on Monday to $80 on Tuesday, a 300% pop per share.
By Friday, shares had briefly dipped below $20, pulling off a boomerang move and erasing 75% from the stock’s weekly peak.
And, this is how GameStop tricked retail investors into believing that this the GameStop rally 2.0. But, before that, it smacked professionals with huge losses on the way up.
Same Old, Same Old
Professional money managers had borrowed about 30% of all shares outstanding for — you guessed it — shorting purposes. The thing with shorting a stock, i.e. profiting from its decline, is that if you’re wrong, you can be wrong until your account is wiped out because shares could rise indefinitely.
GameStop short sellers were ironed out. They lost more than $2 billion in just two days, according to data analytics firm S3 Partners.
“After being down $862 million in mark-to-market losses yesterday, NYSE:GME shorts are down another $1.36 billion in mark-to-market losses today,” S3 Partners’ Managing Director Ihor Dusaniwsky commented on X .
If only there was some similar experience in recent history that would inform hedge funds:
Not to bet on a red-hot stock, popular among the retail crowds, because you’ll get burned if they come after you with a short squeeze.
Not to bet on a red-hot stock that’s thinly traded, because you won’t be able to easily get rid of your short position that’s draining your funds.
After all, they did make a movie ( “Dumb Money” ) about shorting GameStop. Yet, “smart money” did it again. Professional hedge funders weren’t the only ones to get knocked.
What Goes Up Must Come Down
The retail trading army on Reddit and X lost some serious cash, too. Just when shares were going in the other direction. Redditors on r/WallStreetBets initially cheered the first rays of the powerful upside swing. This sparked hopes of a revival before these same guys started flooding the board with screenshots of mounting losses as shares were nosediving.
What Happened and Why the Fast About-Face?
Other than the super frothy state of the highly inflated stock, what helped shares come back to earth was GameStop’s securities filing to sell some equity. Apparently, the C-suite of the video game store figured they could ride out the surge and issue up to 45 million shares that would dilute the number of existing shares by as much as 15%.
In another price-damaging filing , GameStop said that it expects net sales for the current quarter to land between $872 million and $892 million. The forecast is well below last year’s $1.237 billion and the consensus views for $1.045 billion.
With that said, GameStop shares are still in the green for the year, following the head-spinning trip to the moon and back. So, until next time?
We Want to Hear from You!
Let us know about your experience with that volatile beast! Do you own shares, when did you buy, and are you optimistic about the future of GameStop?
Trapped traders provides a great Short opportunity on DOW The plan for the session was to trade short off resistance on the DOW after an initial opening drive higher. The short side was the play and paid out nicely for patient sellers.
In the video I talk through the key Price Action for the move and prime trade areas on the DOW Index.
ANY QUESTIONS, JUST LEAVE IN THE COMMENTS !!
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more ideas and learning material **
** Any Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
Bitcoin: 64K Test For New Longs.Bitcoin has followed my anticipated scenario nicely over the recent two weeks (it doesn't always agree). As I have written in my previous two articles, the 64K and 68K resistance areas are potential take profit zones, NOT locations to put on more risk. Price action appears to be confirming that and is attempting to retrace off the 66K area minor resistance (See upper arrow). While this price action appears to be bearish it must be considered in light of the broader structure.
Since the March peak, Bitcoin has been in consolidation mode (upon completion of 5 waves). This structure represents a broader HIGHER LOW with 56K established as the bottom of the range. This implies that the broader trend continues to be BULLISH even though recent price action has yet to push major resistances. This is a key piece of context because it helps to shape risk and profit potential for the near future.
How you navigate this will depend on your risk tolerance and trade style but no matter how you look at it, current prices are unattractive for longs on most time horizons in my opinion. The scenario I anticipate this week (see illustration) is a minor retrace to 64K (old resistance/new support) followed by a momentum continuation into the 70K resistance. If a long confirmation appears (Trade Scanner Pro), this can play out well for traders on shorter time horizons.
While I am optimistic in this regard, I also consider that price CAN break 64K and test 60K again. There is NO way to forecast how the market will behave, ESPECIALLY the longer the time horizon.
Managing risk and capitalizing on movements EFFECTIVELY requires knowing how to evaluate market structure in order to stack probabilities. Based on this context if I can determine the trend is bullish for example, I can estimate that supports have a greater than 50% chance of staying intact. I can also expect long signals to have greater than 50% chance of generating some amount of profit, but there is no way to anticipate how much exactly (markets are MOSTLY RANDOM).
Adjusting to price action and looking for signal conflicts or using a trailing stop helps to improve decision making in such an environment. If you get stuck on ideas, cling to hope or consume too much internet, you will soon learn how ineffective this is. The market is a great teacher but the lessons are often VERY EXPENSIVE.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Want to spot a turning point in trend before it happens?Want to spot a turning point in trend before it happens? Use Elliott wave parallel channel
This chart shows the GBP/JPY currency pair using monthly candlesticks. The advance from Sep 2011 to June 2015 can be labeled as an impulse wave (A). From that high, the pair declined in three waves labeled as wave (B) of a Zigzag A-B-C correction with an expanding diagonal characteristic in the C wave position.
As a rule, in a Zigzag rally, wave B notably terminates above the origin of wave A. When wave (C) advance of a zigzag rally is in operation, we can forecast where wave (C) might end.
We can use Elliott wave channel projection by connecting the origin of wave (A) with the end of wave (B) and then drawing a parallel line from the end of wave (A). As a guideline, the resulting channel gives us a potential target for the wave (C) endpoint.
Moreover, we can also use ratio analysis to improve the odds. As a guideline, in Zigzag formations, wave (C) commonly ends after traveling the same length as wave (A). Observe this level corresponds with the Elliott wave channel projection.
This cluster of evidence hints at wave (C) advance from Mar 2020 is in late stages and that prices are approaching a major top.
Myth Busting: Market Style!I have been very lacking in producing educational content. I know a lot of you follow for my analysis, some others for my indicators and some others for my educational content. While I have been getting back in the groove of posting for the later 2, I have neglected those interested in educational content.
So voila, here we are with an educational post! In this post, I want to dispel and or validate some market conjecture based on actual research and my own observations, from indicators, to chart patterns to different market theories. The post will be formatted in the great MYTH BUSTER format!
Hope you enjoy!
Myth #1: All indicators are interchangeable and one indicator can be used for any type of equity.
You all likely have seen, whether on tradingview or other sites, the magical indicators that “work in all markets!”. And you tell yourself, “oh wow, too good to be true, right?!” And the fact is, it is too good to be true. This is a myth and is absolutely false. No one indicator will be cross compatible for multiple different equity types. No one indicator will be sufficient even within the same equity types (i.e. just because RSI works for MSFT doesn’t mean it will work for NVDA).
You can actually objectively view this for yourself if you apply my ATREE indicator . Just as a quick explanation, the ATREE indicator uses MFI, Stochastics, RSI and Z-Score to determine sentiment. It will also provide you with back-test results as to how effective it is at gauging sentiment based on these individuals technical. If we look at ATREE for NVDA:
Pay attention to the backtest results on the right side of the screen. These provide the raw success rate of its sentiment estimations. For NVDA, we can see that Stochastics can predict sentiment roughly 76% of the time on the daily timeframe. However, if we flip on over to MSFT
We see that Z-Score is actually much more effective at determining sentiment than RSI, Stochastics or MFI. This is just an example, but to show you another one, let’s take the Ichimoku cloud with buy and sell signals and put it on MSFT:
We can see, it nailed the buy but pretty hit or miss for the sell. I wouldn’t say this is a great indicator to use for MSFT shorting. However, if we flip on over to SPY with the same indicator:
Its been a bit more on point.
Understanding unique individual ticker intricacies is my whole shebang. I produce models to predict sentiment. If you are part of my community you know there are 4 commonly used models that we employ, from LSTM, to ARIMA, to Eucledian Distance models to Momentum Technical Models. Not all are equal for all stocks. For example, we will reference momentum for tickers like NVDA, but Eucledian distance is better for tickers like SPY. How do you figure this out? Backtesting! I’ve said it in other educational ideas and I saw it again, you always need to backtest your strategy!
Myth #1 Verdict:
So, are all indicators good for all markets?
NO! This is BUSTED!
Myth #2: Trendlines and chart patterns are helpful and pivotal for trading stocks
There tends to two schools of thought to this. Train 1 is that trendlines are pivotal for trading and making assumptions. Train 2 of thought is that they are not helpful and quite frankly useless. However, in mainstream trading theory and teachings, trendlines are a often cited and often taught method of market determination. But are they useful?
Well, it depends. Trendlines can give us context, without trendlines we would have no context and would just be trading random candles on a blank space. The degree of efficacy of these trendlines can depend on things like:
a) The duration of the trend,
b) The skill of the chartist,
c) The number of tests of the trendline,
d) The overall economic climate that a stock is in.
Obviously, I personally found trendlines problematic, hence my resorting to computer modelling. However, in my years of experience and my maturity in the market, I reapproached the trendline theory as supplemental to modelling and have made some relevant observations, which I will discuss below.
The first point is that not all tickers are created equal. Sound familiar? Yeah this was the basis of Myth #1 about technical indicators. The truth is, it applies to trendlines, too. Let’s take a look at DUO, a small cap stock:
DUO recently did, arguably, a dead cat bounce and produced this pennant you see in the chart above. Now DUO is small cap, low volume stock that barely moves. Suddenly, we have this pennant out of nowhere and with no major catalyst. So what happened?
Nothing, it ended up selling into EOD multiple times.
Let’s take a look at NVDA:
NVDA broke down from a major trendline around April 3rd. This would signal a short. And indeed, it was a short, for a short duration of time. It mostly was rangy and stagnant. But it did sell. This trendline was from January of 2024 and ended in April of 2024, a relatively long and stable trendline. NVDA is also a large cap stock with huge amounts of liquidity and volume, So we can expect follow through on major trendlines.
Trendlines have also been pivotal for intra-day trading. Let’s look back at NVDA (since its my daily go to for day trading):
During open, on the 1 minute chart, we could see NVDA forming a pennant. Based on the modelled data we had two potential price targets, a bull target of 957 and a bear target of 929. What NVDA does with this pennant (breakout or breakdown) can help us ascertain which target price is correct.
What happened?
NVDA broke down, and then it travelled all the way down to that 929 target:
So it would seem that chart patterns are indeed useful. However, they are not overly helpful with indicating target price, As well, they are only useful when the stock has high volume, good liquidity and is heavily traded. The efficacy of trendlines and chart patterns likely comes from volume of traders who are looking at similar trendlines. In order for trendlines to influence a stock movement, you need volume from traders who are paying attention to the same thing in order to move it. This is why penny stocks and low float, small cap stocks do not respect trendlines and patterns in the same way.
Verdict for Myth #2?
CONFIRMED!
Myth #3: Market theories such as Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) and Efficient Market Theory are applicable to all tickers and the market as a whole?
If you are a trader, likely you subscribe to one market theory or another. If you are investor, its likely you subscribe to modern portfolio management theory (which emphasizes diversification). If you are a day or swing trader, perhaps you subscribe to the Efficient Market Hypothesis or EWT.
These all remain “theories” because they have yet to prove valid or invalid in research. However, aside from the investor mindset of diversification, no one theory of the market works for all tickers. In fact, some research has come out about EWT specifically and has indicated that it can be useful in predicting some markets (such as the S&P); however, the results are not generalizable to others (specifically Crypto and some individual tickers).
The same can be said about the efficient market theory/hypothesis and many others that have been researched, disproven in some circumstances and proven in others.
So, what is the verdict here?
This is BUSTED. Market theories, aside from an investor mindsight, are not generalizable to all equities, instruments and markets. This is semi based on my own observations but mostly from academic research I have reviewed on this topic (hence why I have no beautiful charts to display for this myth).
And the last myth I will cover in this post:
Myth #4: Diversification is pivotal for day traders
The wisdom here is that, you need to diversify for day trading. You need to identify setups on whatever stock has those setups and play whichever stock confirms best to your setup. The truth is, this is rarely necessary. In fact, sticking to a handful of routine stocks can be advantageous, as you will grow to learn the intricacies of the particular stocks you are trading routinely.
I go through phases but right now, 99% of the time I am trading NVDA. This works for me because there is usually always a setup available on large cap stocks. Let’s review some of the setups I have taken on NVDA:
You can see NVDA loves its morning triangles, and I love them too!
You can absolutely get back with trading one ticker, provided that it has good volatility and movement. In times of economic stability (i.e. currently), its best to avoid the indices as a day trading candidate as they tend to move slower and more purposefully.
So what is the verdict of Myth #4?
Thanks for reading everyone!
I may do more of these myth buster posts, they’re fun to research and find examples and really reflect on what I have learned as a trader. Feel free to submit any myths you live by in the comments and I can look into them for maybe a future post!
Safe trades as always!
5-Year SPX500 Expectations - Greatest Opportunity Of Your LifeWould you believe me if I told you the US & global markets (some) will rally more than 65% to 125% (or more) over the next 4 to 5+ years?
You would probably call me crazy for even suggesting that will happen in a reasonably short time frame.
But, what if I could show you how structurally (using Elliot Wave concepts and Fibonacci) this incredible rally may already be baked into the markets?
What if I could show you that, barring any major economic destruction event, the US Fed and Global Central banks may have unleashed the inflation beast - which could lead to massive Hyperinflation over the next 5+ years?
Would you be prepared for it? Would you even believe me if I could show you evidence that it may happen much quicker than you can imagine?
And would you believe me if I told you Gold/Silver will rally more than 500% over the next 5+ years while attempting to hedge global debt/inflation risks?
Now is the time to prepare for the greatest opportunity of your life. You must understand the structural mechanics of price related to the current global market dynamics.
Please boost and share this video with your friends. Everyone needs to be aware of what is likely to happen over the next 5+ years so they can prepare for and profit from these exceptional price trends.
Intel - Stop the bleeding!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Intel .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In the beginning of 2023 Intel stock retested a multi year long horizontal structure at the $26 level. Here Intel created bullish confirmation and took off, creating a crazy rally of +100% within a couple of months. Then we saw a false breakout towards the upside which was followed by an incredible sell off. At the moment Intel is retesting support so we might see a short term short covering rally.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Chronicle of a Foretold Pump/DumpPump/Dump schema:
Discrete Share accumulation.
Broadcasted Triggering Event (news, rumors, forums, etc).
Gather the mass of "Bagholders".
Dump all the load.
Pocket the quick profit.
I am not a fan of " meme stocks " because they're very much like penny stocks, prone to pump/dump schemes. How legal or illegal is this practice?, it is not us to decide, there are authorities who are supposed to regulate these behaviors.
Regardless of the morality of a it we can analyze the radiography of the move. Using the volume bars feature, you can see "big fat" candles on the accumulation phase, the "rumor" phase where the "roaring kitty" name was heard in the news, the spike and immediately took the stock to a quick profit of +120% overnight, and the fade phase, where the only thing that remained at the end was the frozen smile of the hopeful bagholders with a fading volume.
#LearnToEarn.
Be careful where you put your money, trading and investing requires knowledge of the company, its balance sheet, fundamentals and/or technical metrics. Don't follow the crowd, else you'll end up in the slaughter house. There's no free lunch in Wall St.
Let's remember this quote: "The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." Jesse Livermore.
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave TheoryGreetings, fellow traders. In this article, we'll be reassessing our annual Elliott Wave counts and going deeper into interpreting Bitcoin's current decade cycle. I'll make sure to segment each part by drawing insights from the previous cycles, also employing the Elliott Wave Theory, and integrating major timeline events to bolster my perspective on Bitcoin's potential trajectory in the upcoming cycle. The wave theory will help neutralize many of the irrational thoughts that other analysts may have that just show straight arrows to the upside. This thesis helps you get a better understanding of where pullbacks and areas of high strength (wave 3 impulses) may occur. Remember, the wave theory will never be perfect in painting the picture, but it will help you be positioned as best as possible with proper invalidation levels.
One of the most significant phenomena witnessed in the current financial market landscape is Bitcoin's adherence to a notably algorithmic parabolic trend, where cycles persist in a compounded manner in terms of percentages. This raises the crucial question: "Can we expect all past cycles to mirror the current one?" Answering this is very challenging. However, Bitcoin has one of the strongest strengths against all other coins, which is price history. Fundamentals attached, Bitcoin has been extremely resilient against major events (with wild swings), but the overall trend has remained in tact for over a decade. This indicates not only strength, but true adoption.
We must discern whether the price action will evolve into something new or continue the pattern of echoing past cycles (fractals). The most effective method for interpreting Bitcoin's price movements is through the logarithmic chart that is presented in the chart above.
When examining past cycles through the lens of only fractals (as that is how it has been for the past decade), the most effective approach to understanding the present cycle is by conceptualizing it as a sequence of nested '1-2' counts. In simpler terms, experiencing a succession of 1-2/1-2/1-2 patterns might lead to either optimistic expectations or impending disappointment. This ambiguity prompts consideration of an alternative bearish perspective, elaborated upon subsequently. Keep in mind, there's always room for firsts, meaning that the failure of the fractal pattern is always a possibility. Again, this idea is further explained in the bearish alternative explanation below.
Bearish Alternative:
For a more rational approach, the Elliott Wave Theory also suggests alternative pathways. One narrowed down scenario would be that the cycle has now matured, suggesting for a more maturing market with more complexity in corrective types (patterns).
The logarithmic chart may indicate a deceleration in the macro timeframe, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently in a maturity phase. Its role as a store of value to say the least. To simply put, the corrections will be far more controlled as investors create larger distribution patterns through the timeline and create demand/sell zones. Price maturity, a concept commonly observed in stock models, implies that markets do not move linearly and eventually reach an endpoint, including in price action. Utilizing the Elliott Wave Theory, we can generate one alternative count that shows the whole cycle is now possibly in a larger 1-2 of some sort:
1. The fact that we have a possible WXYXZ corrective pattern for the 2021-2023 bear market, this may indicate this is part of something larger. Usually, you will see wave 2's have a simple ABC/WXY type patterns.
2. This speculation can then lead us to believe that we could be part of a larger corrective pattern, most likely as a flat pattern now.
3. Consequently, this insight aids in forecasting that we are entering into the new phase of 'market maturity,' or what I like to term as the "flattening of the curve theory."
We could debate endlessly about the next bear market for Bitcoin, but the undeniable truth is that over the past 15 years, the market has proven its resilience against political turmoil, hacking attempts, and regulatory crackdowns.
It's remarkable to realize that aside from halvings, forks, and institutional adoption, there haven't been any significant bullish events/catalysts. This speaks volumes about Bitcoin's strength. There wasn't any single groundbreaking moment or major catalyst for each bull run. Instead, it was a series of interconnected events that sustained that momentum, leaving it to us as investors to identify distribution points.