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Bitcoin: 64K Test For New Longs.Bitcoin has followed my anticipated scenario nicely over the recent two weeks (it doesn't always agree). As I have written in my previous two articles, the 64K and 68K resistance areas are potential take profit zones, NOT locations to put on more risk. Price action appears to be confirming that and is attempting to retrace off the 66K area minor resistance (See upper arrow). While this price action appears to be bearish it must be considered in light of the broader structure. Since the March peak, Bitcoin has been in consolidation mode (upon completion of 5 waves). This structure represents a broader HIGHER LOW with 56K established as the bottom of the range. This implies that the broader trend continues to be BULLISH even though recent price action has yet to push major resistances. This is a key piece of context because it helps to shape risk and profit potential for the near future. How you navigate this will depend on your risk tolerance and trade style but no matter how you look at it, current prices are unattractive for longs on most time horizons in my opinion. The scenario I anticipate this week (see illustration) is a minor retrace to 64K (old resistance/new support) followed by a momentum continuation into the 70K resistance. If a long confirmation appears (Trade Scanner Pro), this can play out well for traders on shorter time horizons. While I am optimistic in this regard, I also consider that price CAN break 64K and test 60K again. There is NO way to forecast how the market will behave, ESPECIALLY the longer the time horizon. Managing risk and capitalizing on movements EFFECTIVELY requires knowing how to evaluate market structure in order to stack probabilities. Based on this context if I can determine the trend is bullish for example, I can estimate that supports have a greater than 50% chance of staying intact. I can also expect long signals to have greater than 50% chance of generating some amount of profit, but there is no way to anticipate how much exactly (markets are MOSTLY RANDOM). Adjusting to price action and looking for signal conflicts or using a trailing stop helps to improve decision making in such an environment. If you get stuck on ideas, cling to hope or consume too much internet, you will soon learn how ineffective this is. The market is a great teacher but the lessons are often VERY EXPENSIVE. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
Want to spot a turning point in trend before it happens?Want to spot a turning point in trend before it happens? Use Elliott wave parallel channel This chart shows the GBP/JPY currency pair using monthly candlesticks. The advance from Sep 2011 to June 2015 can be labeled as an impulse wave (A). From that high, the pair declined in three waves labeled as wave (B) of a Zigzag A-B-C correction with an expanding diagonal characteristic in the C wave position. As a rule, in a Zigzag rally, wave B notably terminates above the origin of wave A. When wave (C) advance of a zigzag rally is in operation, we can forecast where wave (C) might end. We can use Elliott wave channel projection by connecting the origin of wave (A) with the end of wave (B) and then drawing a parallel line from the end of wave (A). As a guideline, the resulting channel gives us a potential target for the wave (C) endpoint. Moreover, we can also use ratio analysis to improve the odds. As a guideline, in Zigzag formations, wave (C) commonly ends after traveling the same length as wave (A). Observe this level corresponds with the Elliott wave channel projection. This cluster of evidence hints at wave (C) advance from Mar 2020 is in late stages and that prices are approaching a major top.
Education
by Aquanet_Market_Forecast
17
Myth Busting: Market Style!I have been very lacking in producing educational content. I know a lot of you follow for my analysis, some others for my indicators and some others for my educational content. While I have been getting back in the groove of posting for the later 2, I have neglected those interested in educational content. So voila, here we are with an educational post! In this post, I want to dispel and or validate some market conjecture based on actual research and my own observations, from indicators, to chart patterns to different market theories. The post will be formatted in the great MYTH BUSTER format! Hope you enjoy! Myth #1: All indicators are interchangeable and one indicator can be used for any type of equity. You all likely have seen, whether on tradingview or other sites, the magical indicators that “work in all markets!”. And you tell yourself, “oh wow, too good to be true, right?!” And the fact is, it is too good to be true. This is a myth and is absolutely false. No one indicator will be cross compatible for multiple different equity types. No one indicator will be sufficient even within the same equity types (i.e. just because RSI works for MSFT doesn’t mean it will work for NVDA). You can actually objectively view this for yourself if you apply my ATREE indicator . Just as a quick explanation, the ATREE indicator uses MFI, Stochastics, RSI and Z-Score to determine sentiment. It will also provide you with back-test results as to how effective it is at gauging sentiment based on these individuals technical. If we look at ATREE for NVDA: Pay attention to the backtest results on the right side of the screen. These provide the raw success rate of its sentiment estimations. For NVDA, we can see that Stochastics can predict sentiment roughly 76% of the time on the daily timeframe. However, if we flip on over to MSFT We see that Z-Score is actually much more effective at determining sentiment than RSI, Stochastics or MFI. This is just an example, but to show you another one, let’s take the Ichimoku cloud with buy and sell signals and put it on MSFT: We can see, it nailed the buy but pretty hit or miss for the sell. I wouldn’t say this is a great indicator to use for MSFT shorting. However, if we flip on over to SPY with the same indicator: Its been a bit more on point. Understanding unique individual ticker intricacies is my whole shebang. I produce models to predict sentiment. If you are part of my community you know there are 4 commonly used models that we employ, from LSTM, to ARIMA, to Eucledian Distance models to Momentum Technical Models. Not all are equal for all stocks. For example, we will reference momentum for tickers like NVDA, but Eucledian distance is better for tickers like SPY. How do you figure this out? Backtesting! I’ve said it in other educational ideas and I saw it again, you always need to backtest your strategy! Myth #1 Verdict: So, are all indicators good for all markets? NO! This is BUSTED! Myth #2: Trendlines and chart patterns are helpful and pivotal for trading stocks There tends to two schools of thought to this. Train 1 is that trendlines are pivotal for trading and making assumptions. Train 2 of thought is that they are not helpful and quite frankly useless. However, in mainstream trading theory and teachings, trendlines are a often cited and often taught method of market determination. But are they useful? Well, it depends. Trendlines can give us context, without trendlines we would have no context and would just be trading random candles on a blank space. The degree of efficacy of these trendlines can depend on things like: a) The duration of the trend, b) The skill of the chartist, c) The number of tests of the trendline, d) The overall economic climate that a stock is in. Obviously, I personally found trendlines problematic, hence my resorting to computer modelling. However, in my years of experience and my maturity in the market, I reapproached the trendline theory as supplemental to modelling and have made some relevant observations, which I will discuss below. The first point is that not all tickers are created equal. Sound familiar? Yeah this was the basis of Myth #1 about technical indicators. The truth is, it applies to trendlines, too. Let’s take a look at DUO, a small cap stock: DUO recently did, arguably, a dead cat bounce and produced this pennant you see in the chart above. Now DUO is small cap, low volume stock that barely moves. Suddenly, we have this pennant out of nowhere and with no major catalyst. So what happened? Nothing, it ended up selling into EOD multiple times. Let’s take a look at NVDA: NVDA broke down from a major trendline around April 3rd. This would signal a short. And indeed, it was a short, for a short duration of time. It mostly was rangy and stagnant. But it did sell. This trendline was from January of 2024 and ended in April of 2024, a relatively long and stable trendline. NVDA is also a large cap stock with huge amounts of liquidity and volume, So we can expect follow through on major trendlines. Trendlines have also been pivotal for intra-day trading. Let’s look back at NVDA (since its my daily go to for day trading): During open, on the 1 minute chart, we could see NVDA forming a pennant. Based on the modelled data we had two potential price targets, a bull target of 957 and a bear target of 929. What NVDA does with this pennant (breakout or breakdown) can help us ascertain which target price is correct. What happened? NVDA broke down, and then it travelled all the way down to that 929 target: So it would seem that chart patterns are indeed useful. However, they are not overly helpful with indicating target price, As well, they are only useful when the stock has high volume, good liquidity and is heavily traded. The efficacy of trendlines and chart patterns likely comes from volume of traders who are looking at similar trendlines. In order for trendlines to influence a stock movement, you need volume from traders who are paying attention to the same thing in order to move it. This is why penny stocks and low float, small cap stocks do not respect trendlines and patterns in the same way. Verdict for Myth #2? CONFIRMED! Myth #3: Market theories such as Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) and Efficient Market Theory are applicable to all tickers and the market as a whole? If you are a trader, likely you subscribe to one market theory or another. If you are investor, its likely you subscribe to modern portfolio management theory (which emphasizes diversification). If you are a day or swing trader, perhaps you subscribe to the Efficient Market Hypothesis or EWT. These all remain “theories” because they have yet to prove valid or invalid in research. However, aside from the investor mindset of diversification, no one theory of the market works for all tickers. In fact, some research has come out about EWT specifically and has indicated that it can be useful in predicting some markets (such as the S&P); however, the results are not generalizable to others (specifically Crypto and some individual tickers). The same can be said about the efficient market theory/hypothesis and many others that have been researched, disproven in some circumstances and proven in others. So, what is the verdict here? This is BUSTED. Market theories, aside from an investor mindsight, are not generalizable to all equities, instruments and markets. This is semi based on my own observations but mostly from academic research I have reviewed on this topic (hence why I have no beautiful charts to display for this myth). And the last myth I will cover in this post: Myth #4: Diversification is pivotal for day traders The wisdom here is that, you need to diversify for day trading. You need to identify setups on whatever stock has those setups and play whichever stock confirms best to your setup. The truth is, this is rarely necessary. In fact, sticking to a handful of routine stocks can be advantageous, as you will grow to learn the intricacies of the particular stocks you are trading routinely. I go through phases but right now, 99% of the time I am trading NVDA. This works for me because there is usually always a setup available on large cap stocks. Let’s review some of the setups I have taken on NVDA: You can see NVDA loves its morning triangles, and I love them too! You can absolutely get back with trading one ticker, provided that it has good volatility and movement. In times of economic stability (i.e. currently), its best to avoid the indices as a day trading candidate as they tend to move slower and more purposefully. So what is the verdict of Myth #4? Thanks for reading everyone! I may do more of these myth buster posts, they’re fun to research and find examples and really reflect on what I have learned as a trader. Feel free to submit any myths you live by in the comments and I can look into them for maybe a future post! Safe trades as always!
SP:SPXEducation
by Steversteves
4
5-Year SPX500 Expectations - Greatest Opportunity Of Your LifeWould you believe me if I told you the US & global markets (some) will rally more than 65% to 125% (or more) over the next 4 to 5+ years? You would probably call me crazy for even suggesting that will happen in a reasonably short time frame. But, what if I could show you how structurally (using Elliot Wave concepts and Fibonacci) this incredible rally may already be baked into the markets? What if I could show you that, barring any major economic destruction event, the US Fed and Global Central banks may have unleashed the inflation beast - which could lead to massive Hyperinflation over the next 5+ years? Would you be prepared for it? Would you even believe me if I could show you evidence that it may happen much quicker than you can imagine? And would you believe me if I told you Gold/Silver will rally more than 500% over the next 5+ years while attempting to hedge global debt/inflation risks? Now is the time to prepare for the greatest opportunity of your life. You must understand the structural mechanics of price related to the current global market dynamics. Please boost and share this video with your friends. Everyone needs to be aware of what is likely to happen over the next 5+ years so they can prepare for and profit from these exceptional price trends.
FX:SPX500Education
by BradMatheny
29
Intel - Stop the bleeding!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Intel . -------- Explanation of my video analysis: In the beginning of 2023 Intel stock retested a multi year long horizontal structure at the $26 level. Here Intel created bullish confirmation and took off, creating a crazy rally of +100% within a couple of months. Then we saw a false breakout towards the upside which was followed by an incredible sell off. At the moment Intel is retesting support so we might see a short term short covering rally. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by basictradingtv
28
Chronicle of a Foretold Pump/DumpPump/Dump schema: Discrete Share accumulation. Broadcasted Triggering Event (news, rumors, forums, etc). Gather the mass of "Bagholders". Dump all the load. Pocket the quick profit. I am not a fan of " meme stocks " because they're very much like penny stocks, prone to pump/dump schemes. How legal or illegal is this practice?, it is not us to decide, there are authorities who are supposed to regulate these behaviors. Regardless of the morality of a it we can analyze the radiography of the move. Using the volume bars feature, you can see "big fat" candles on the accumulation phase, the "rumor" phase where the "roaring kitty" name was heard in the news, the spike and immediately took the stock to a quick profit of +120% overnight, and the fade phase, where the only thing that remained at the end was the frozen smile of the hopeful bagholders with a fading volume. #LearnToEarn. Be careful where you put your money, trading and investing requires knowledge of the company, its balance sheet, fundamentals and/or technical metrics. Don't follow the crowd, else you'll end up in the slaughter house. There's no free lunch in Wall St. Let's remember this quote: "The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." Jesse Livermore.
NYSE:AMCEducation
by Madrid
30
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave TheoryGreetings, fellow traders. In this article, we'll be reassessing our annual Elliott Wave counts and going deeper into interpreting Bitcoin's current decade cycle. I'll make sure to segment each part by drawing insights from the previous cycles, also employing the Elliott Wave Theory, and integrating major timeline events to bolster my perspective on Bitcoin's potential trajectory in the upcoming cycle. The wave theory will help neutralize many of the irrational thoughts that other analysts may have that just show straight arrows to the upside. This thesis helps you get a better understanding of where pullbacks and areas of high strength (wave 3 impulses) may occur. Remember, the wave theory will never be perfect in painting the picture, but it will help you be positioned as best as possible with proper invalidation levels. One of the most significant phenomena witnessed in the current financial market landscape is Bitcoin's adherence to a notably algorithmic parabolic trend, where cycles persist in a compounded manner in terms of percentages. This raises the crucial question: "Can we expect all past cycles to mirror the current one?" Answering this is very challenging. However, Bitcoin has one of the strongest strengths against all other coins, which is price history. Fundamentals attached, Bitcoin has been extremely resilient against major events (with wild swings), but the overall trend has remained in tact for over a decade. This indicates not only strength, but true adoption. We must discern whether the price action will evolve into something new or continue the pattern of echoing past cycles (fractals). The most effective method for interpreting Bitcoin's price movements is through the logarithmic chart that is presented in the chart above. When examining past cycles through the lens of only fractals (as that is how it has been for the past decade), the most effective approach to understanding the present cycle is by conceptualizing it as a sequence of nested '1-2' counts. In simpler terms, experiencing a succession of 1-2/1-2/1-2 patterns might lead to either optimistic expectations or impending disappointment. This ambiguity prompts consideration of an alternative bearish perspective, elaborated upon subsequently. Keep in mind, there's always room for firsts, meaning that the failure of the fractal pattern is always a possibility. Again, this idea is further explained in the bearish alternative explanation below. Bearish Alternative: For a more rational approach, the Elliott Wave Theory also suggests alternative pathways. One narrowed down scenario would be that the cycle has now matured, suggesting for a more maturing market with more complexity in corrective types (patterns). The logarithmic chart may indicate a deceleration in the macro timeframe, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently in a maturity phase. Its role as a store of value to say the least. To simply put, the corrections will be far more controlled as investors create larger distribution patterns through the timeline and create demand/sell zones. Price maturity, a concept commonly observed in stock models, implies that markets do not move linearly and eventually reach an endpoint, including in price action. Utilizing the Elliott Wave Theory, we can generate one alternative count that shows the whole cycle is now possibly in a larger 1-2 of some sort: 1. The fact that we have a possible WXYXZ corrective pattern for the 2021-2023 bear market, this may indicate this is part of something larger. Usually, you will see wave 2's have a simple ABC/WXY type patterns. 2. This speculation can then lead us to believe that we could be part of a larger corrective pattern, most likely as a flat pattern now. 3. Consequently, this insight aids in forecasting that we are entering into the new phase of 'market maturity,' or what I like to term as the "flattening of the curve theory." We could debate endlessly about the next bear market for Bitcoin, but the undeniable truth is that over the past 15 years, the market has proven its resilience against political turmoil, hacking attempts, and regulatory crackdowns. It's remarkable to realize that aside from halvings, forks, and institutional adoption, there haven't been any significant bullish events/catalysts. This speaks volumes about Bitcoin's strength. There wasn't any single groundbreaking moment or major catalyst for each bull run. Instead, it was a series of interconnected events that sustained that momentum, leaving it to us as investors to identify distribution points.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
30
Multi-Month Bearish cycle ahead / #1,800.80 TargetGold's general commentary: As discussed, if Gold does not invalidate #2,452.80 - #2,500.80 psychological benchmarks in extension (Buying every Low's / less likely), I am expecting Gold to finish the Monthly fractal below #2,300.80 benchmark. Needless to mention, that would be Bearish for Gold’s Medium to Long-term (aligns with my Bearish expectations). On an Intra-day basis the only Trading opportunity exists only within the Hourly 4 chart’s Overbought levels, as I don’t see why I should allow additional risk of Selling Gold throughout Low Volume sessions such as current (many similarities with December #24 - December #25 fractal). I am expecting Gold to re-test #2,352.80 benchmark within #2-sessions if there aren't new DX Selling surprises. Fundamental analysis: Cup and a Handle formation was delivered on Hourly 1 chart (visible even more on smaller charts), spike to the upside is delivered as I expect cool-down on Gold (even though CPI delivered unexpected forecast / numbers). Only reason what is keeping overall Bullish trend sustainable is DX taking strong hits on Daily basis. As High Interest rates are having very negative impact on world’s economy and individual population, DX is on a decline. Technical analysis: Last #3 Weekly chart’s (#1W) MACD Selling signals brought approximately (# -15.80%) to (# -17.27%) declines in #140 to #160 sessions. MACD is about to deliver Long-term Selling signal and if one calculates (# -16.00%) decline from current Price-action, #2,000.80 psychological benchmark remains first Long-term Target (followed with #1,800.80 Selling extension of recent High's). Also if Monthly (#1M) chart is correct, every major / mega Bullish rally was aggressively corrected. If I take period from #2.000 Year to ATH’s in #2.011, Gold delivered (# +619.80%) rise, then delivered aggressive multi-Year decline until #2,015 Year. Since #2.015 Year, Gold was gradually soaring until #2.020 Year stagnation which was extended (made a Bullish breakout) on #2.023 Year towards recent record High’s (delivering (# +127.80%) rise. If this is eventual Top, I do expect Gold to continue it’s cycle of multi-Year struggling after delivering / fresh ATH’s at least #500-points ahead. Advice to Traders since I am getting many inquiries lately: There is no secret. Trading is (especially Gold) taking certain Risks at certain times. If you're not aligning your strategy to the context, you will not get paid and will consequently lose money. Financial markets are ruled by Stochastic processes and most of what happens is beyond our control or understanding even, however can in turn represent serious source of income, especially on bigger levels (account sizes). #50% of Trading is Trading knowledge (day to day experience and fieldwork, Risk control, capital management) and second #50% is handling emotions and one’s psychology while understanding the broader context of the market and how to be appropriately positioned. Most importantly, Trading is a process, not an over-night success, so strong patience is required.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by goldenBear88
98
How to trade tax-free: spread bettingCFD trading has a close cousin you may not know about … spread betting. Just like CFD trading, spread betting allows you to speculate on the future direction of a market's price without owning the underlying asset. Key advantages include: Tax efficiency : Profits from spread betting are free from UK Capital Gains Tax*. Similar to CFD trading, there is also no stamp duty to pay. However, it does mean when spread betting, you can’t offset any losses against other capital gains. Leverage : Spread betting allows you to control larger positions with a smaller amount of capital, amplifying potential profits but also potential losses - necessitating careful risk management. Wide range of markets : You can go both long and short 1000s of markets, including stocks, commodities, forex, and indices. Simplicity and clarity : Calculating your P&L from a spread bet is straightforward. Simply multiply the wagered amount by the per point movement in price. This simplicity makes spread betting accessible to traders of all experience levels. For example, if you buy £1 per point of Wall Street at 39000 and later that day sell it at 39400, then you make 1 x 400 = £400 profit. Conversely, if Wall Street falls 400 points to 38600, you lose £400. Sound familiar? Spread betting and CFD trading are very similar methods of trading financial markets but, importantly, may be taxed differently. * Tax laws are subject to change and depend on individual circumstances. Tax law may differ in a jurisdiction other than the UK.
SPREADEX:DJIEducation
by Spreadex
New Volume Footprint option on TradingViewHi all, This is the first (stream replacement) educational video with a very quick overview of volume. Tradingview just released the new Footprint Beta tool. It's something I asked them for a long time ago, so I am glad it's finally here! In this video I cover the time-price-opportunity tool as well as visible and fixed range. Leading into footprint. This is not a deep dive, it's more an intro to and how these things come together. If there is enough interest in this idea I will create a sequence based on trading volume in depth. Thanks for watching! See you on the next stream/idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
SILVER TO $750 IN THE NEXT DECADE ?This has to be the biggest Cup & Handle Formation in Human History. Holy Smokes. Ok, let's dive into the Fundamentals: 1) Industrial Demand: Silver is essential in various high-growth industries such as electronics, solar energy, and medical devices. As technological advancements continue, the demand for silver is expected to increase significantly. 2) Investment Demand: Economic uncertainty, inflation, or financial crises often lead investors to seek precious metals like silver as a safe haven. 3) Supply Constraints: Silver mining production may face challenges due to factors like depleted mines, increased extraction costs, or regulatory changes. Supply shortages can occur if production cannot keep up with demand, which will ultimately lead to a short squeeze. 4) Monetary Policy and Inflation: Central banks' monetary policies, such as maintaining low interest rates or implementing quantitative easing, can weaken currencies. 5) Green Energy Initiatives: The push for renewable energy sources, particularly solar power, relies heavily on silver for photovoltaic cells. As global efforts to combat climate change intensify, the demand for silver in green technologies is likely to rise, boosting its price. (aka Agenda 2030 - The Great Reset) What scares me about this chart is that it suggests terrible events are imminent. The impact of these events cannot yet be measured, but they will be catastrophic for humanity. Stay Safe and keep stacking as fast as possible, NFA! CYANE
TVC:SILVERLong
by cy4ne
40
Three Factors Keeping Oil Prices in CheckAT A GLANCE: Despite ongoing geopolitical conflict, oil prices and volatility are relatively low A rise in U.S. crude production and weak demand in China are helping oil inventories maintain average levels Considering many factors like the Russia-Ukraine war, OPEC+ cutting production by 3.6 million barrels per day and conflict in the Middle East, many traders might be surprised to find out that oil prices are only around $82 per barrel and that implied volatility on crude options are trading at relatively low levels below 40%. Inventories Remain at Average Levels So why are crude oil prices not higher and more volatile? Part of the answer lies in inventories. Crude and product inventories are right around their seasonally adjusted averages for the past five years. This suggests that at least some cushion exists in the event of a supply disruption. Given that oil production is about 3.5% lower globally than it would have been without OPEC+ production cuts, how is it possible that oil inventories are still at average levels? There are two reasons. First, a boom in U.S. production has replaced about one third of what OPEC cut. The second reason is weak demand. China buys about 10 million barrels per day in the international markets, and its economy has been growing much more slowly than it was a few years ago. Slow growth in China often hits oil prices with a lag of about 12 months and may be among the factors preventing a further rise in global crude prices. Higher Prices Expected? That said, traders are displaying some signs of nervousness. The skew on CME Group’s WTI CVOL index is quite positive at the moment, suggesting that some traders are buying out of the money call options to protect themselves from the possibility of much higher prices. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by CME_Group
2
Exploring Auction Market Theory in Forex TradingAuction Market Theory (AMT) is a conceptual framework used to understand the dynamics of financial markets, viewing them as auctions where buyers and sellers interact to determine prices. Although the AMT was initially developed to understand & analyse price action movements in the stock market, some of its core concepts can also be applied to any market, including forex. Within the forex market, currency pairs are traded 24/5, with price driven by a multitude of factors such as economic data releases, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Despite this complexity, AMT provides a framework for understanding market dynamics through the concepts of value, balance, and imbalances . Value represents the equilibrium price at which buyers and sellers agree on the fair value of an asset. Market balance occurs when supply and demand are roughly equal, resulting in stable price ranges, while imbalances arise from deviations from this equilibrium due to shifts in market sentiment or unexpected events. These imbalances can create trading opportunities for astute traders who can identify them and act accordingly. Lets now take a look into how this can be visually identified on a line chart using only price action. Example 1 On the left, we can see an area of market balance. This is usually evident when the market is range bound as we can see in this case. The midpoint of the range is the point of equilibrium. Value can be interpreted as the equilibrium price at which buyers and sellers agree on the fair value of a currency pair. This equilibrium is constantly shifting as new information becomes available and market participants reassess their expectations. When these expectations shift as a result of either economic data releases, geopolitical events, and/or market sentiment, price shifts away from the balanced price range and creates an imbalance within the market. Identifying value areas are important because these can act as an area of future support/resistance for price. Notice how in this example, after price displaces from the balanced range, it later came back and found support near the fair value within that range. Practical Application One practical application of AMT in forex trading is through the analysis of price action and market profile. By observing how price behaves at different levels and how volume interacts with price movements, you can gain insights into market sentiment and potential areas of support and resistance. For example, if a currency pair consistently fails to break above a certain resistance level despite multiple attempts, it may indicate strong selling pressure at that level, presenting an opportunity for short trades. Conversely, if a currency pair finds strong support at a particular price level, traders may look for buying opportunities as the market reverts to equilibrium. To conclude, Auction Market Theory offers a valuable framework for understanding the dynamics of the forex market. By analysing price action, volume, and market profile through the lens of AMT, you can gain a deeper understanding of market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. While no theory can guarantee success in trading, incorporating Auction Market Theory into your analysis can help you make more informed trading decisions. Please leave a comment if you've found this post helpful or if you have any questions. Happy Trading
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by Pips4Breakfastx
6
ON Semiconductor - betting on corrective UT rallyOn Semi conductor's selling has been weakened since Nov 23 and the larger falling wedge is pointing towards a larger bullish reversal pattern. First the cup and handle is close to a completion and will confirm the pattern once it breaks above US$72.84 resistance. Volume is low but is a potential sign of accumulation. Long-term MACD is close to a bottom crossover. Stochastic Oscillator is oversold. 23-period ROC shows bullish divergence. Hence will consider buying at spot or wait for pullback at 65.13 support. Target is at 79.85 and 98.54.
NASDAQ:ON
by William-trading
5
When Are You READY to Trade with REAL MONEY?Hello hello, R2F here with another discussion. Today, I'd like to go over the question, 'when do you know you are ready to trade with real money?' Too many traders rush into trading with real capital before they are ready, and end up losing more money than neccessary on learning journey. People are generally impatient creatures and want to get into actions as soon as possible. Perhaps they want to find out if they are magically a trading savant before wasting time on all the usual work that is required. However, trading is extremely simple, albeit not easy. The difficult part comes in the form of the investment of time and experience, and refining yourself as a person. Once you had that in the bag, trading offers the potential for generational wealth that comes with the freedom of time. Without further ado, I share my thoughts on how to approach this burning question. - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
39
Nvidia Q1 25 earnings preview – will the Kraken awake?Due to report shortly after market close on 22 May (typically 06:20 AEST / 21:20 UK). “The most important stock in the world” - That was the label given to Nvidia (NVDA) throughout February as we geared up for its highly anticipated Q424 earnings results. Where, at the time, the sheer number of articles written on the stock was incredible – when you are a momentum stock, you need this sort of attention to fuel the beast. Since March though the hype has settled, and we see reduced news flow. In fact, we’re seeing an increasing number of articles directing traders away from Nvidia and towards other smaller names in the AI-semi space that could potentially see explosive moves. With the momentum in NVDA falling away since Nvidia’s last earnings, and with Nvidia lacking a near-term catalyst, amid some concern of an over-supplied chips market, market players have moved their attention towards quality defensive areas of the equity market and value as an investment factor, with utilities, energy, and materials all seeing strong outperformance of late vs the S&P500. We can also see this lack of momentum in NVDA’s technical set-up and price action, with shares rallying in a $205 range between $947 to $756, and now finding a fair value around $900. Traders remain buyers of pullbacks, where the trigger for long positions seems to be when the shares fall 10% below the 50-day moving average. Nvidia may not be the hot topic it was in February, is that about to change? For a short period, absolutely, with the eyes of the trading world falling once again on NVDA’s quarterly earnings. The options market is pricing a -/+8.9% on the first day of trade after earnings (i.e. the 23 May), which if priced correctly, from current levels, could see the stock trade into new all-time highs or see it closer to $820. With a current market capitalization of $2.260t, an 8.9% move would equate to $200b in gained/lost market cap in one day, which would essentially be larger than the market cap of 82 companies in the NAS100. We can also go back over the past 8 quarterly earnings announcements and that Nvidia has seen an average move of 8.5% on the day of reporting, with shares closing higher in 6 of the past 8 quarters. Many will recall the Q424 earnings (reported in February), where the share price closed +16.4% on the day and went on to rally a further 23.4% over the following 11 trading sessions. Earnings pedigree – few do it better Let’s not forget that few companies globally have NVDA’s form at beating analysts’ consensus expectations on earnings-per-share (EPS), revenue, or gross margins. Perhaps the bar is perennially set too low, but NVDA has beaten expectations for revenue for the reporting quarter, as well as on expectations for the upcoming quarter, on all but two occasions since 2018: Q32019 and Q2 2023 being the exceptions. In the past 4 quarterly earnings reports, NVDA has beaten guidance on sales for the upcoming quarter by an average of 14% - remarkable form, especially when they have a CEO (Jensen Huang) who knows how to hit the sweet spot and say exactly what investors want to hear in the post-earnings conference call. Earnings expectations for Q1 2025 – will they beat yet again? Q125 EPS – $5.51 (Q2 25 guidance expectations - $5.96c) Q125 revenue - $24.58b (Q2 25 guidance expectations - $26.617b) Data centres revenue - $20.903b (Q2 25 expectations - $22.567b) Gross Margins – 77.01% (Q2 25 guidance expectations - 75.61%) Recall in the prior earnings call CEO Jensen Huang suggested AI was at ‘a tipping point, which was a big topic of discussion. Given that NVDA only recently held its GTC conference in March and explored the future across multiple touch points, this time around traders will react on news that isn’t already discounted into the stock - growth opportunities, maintain its monopolistic qualities, levels of capex, and future partnerships. Traders have found opportunities outside of AI-related semi and while many feel Nvidia lacks a near-term catalyst, the element of surprise is always there. The idea of ‘as goes Nvidia, as goes the market’ has dissipated, but it could make a return – and with big movement expected, this is a key event for equity and index CFD traders to have on the radar.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Pepperstone
35
Gold Price (XAU/USD) Is Testing an Important Resistance ZoneGold Price (XAU/USD) Is Testing an Important Resistance Zone On April 16, we wrote why the $2,380 zone is an important resistance area. The XAU/USD chart shows that: 1) After fading fluctuations (they formed a narrowing consolidation triangle - shown in green), the price of gold dropped sharply (shown by a black arrow) on April 22-23. 2) Then, the price found support in the form of the lower border of the ascending channel (shown in blue), which has been in effect since the beginning of March. This led to the formation of another consolidation pattern between the blue lines. 3) An upward breakdown of the red lines on May 9 could be interpreted as an attempt by the bulls to resume the upward trend within the blue channel, but we could expect that the green triangle with its axis around 2380 would provide resistance. However, it is important to pay attention to the nature of buyers’ behaviour when the price approaches an important resistance - the XAU/USD chart shows that the bulls’ persistence has quickly depleted. From the point of view of technical analysis of the gold price, a bearish engulfing has formed on the chart (shown by a blue arrow) in the area of 2380. In other words, the price of gold tested the resistance level, revealing the activity of bears defending their territory. From the point of view of fundamental analysis, market participants can position themselves ahead of the key news for the beginning of the week: the CPI index will be published on Wednesday at 15:30 GMT+3. But if economic or geopolitical news does not change the balance, in which, as we observe, the initiative is on the side of the bears, then this may create a threat of a breakdown of the blue channel’s lower border. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
8
XAU/USD 13 May 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Bias/Analysis remains the same as analysis dated 12 May 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish BOS. After bullish BOS expectation is for price to pullback. We have nested Daily and H4 supply levels where price is expected to initiate pullback. CHoCH is positioned at quite a distance away from current price, therefore, there is a possibility price could engineer a CHoCH closer to current price to indicate initiation of pullback. Previous intraday expectation dated 10 May 2024 was for price to continue bullish, react at nested Daily and H4 POI levels to start pullback phase which price is indicated as printing. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ or H4 POI, both of which are closely positioned before targeting weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a printed a bullish BOS and iBOS After BOS we expect price to pullback. First indication, but not confirmation of pullback initiation would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. Intraday expectation dated 10 May 2024 was for price to react at nested Daily and H4 POI levels to initiate pullback, which price did. Current Intraday expectation: Price to react at M15 POI, discount zone of 50% EQ or H4 POI before targeting weak internal high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
34
GameFi, Blockchain games, Top projectsGameFi GameFi is a combination of gaming and decentralized finance that combines blockchain technology, NFT (non-flammable tokens), DeFi (decentralized finance), and the play-to-earn (P2E) model to create a unique gaming experience. This innovative approach lets players enjoy the game and earn real money through in-game actions and assets. At its core, GameFi uses blockchain technology to create decentralized gaming platforms where players have full ownership and control over their in-game assets. These assets, often represented as NFTs, can be exchanged or sold on NFT trading platforms, allowing players to monetize their gaming experience. DeFi is essential in GameFi by offering various financial services in the game ecosystem. Players can farm, bet, and provide liquidity, generating passive income while participating in the game. The P2E model is a critical component of GameFi as it allows players to earn cryptocurrency or NFT by completing tasks, competing with other players, and advancing in the game. This model can potentially revolutionize the gaming industry by incentivizing players to invest time and effort into their gaming experience. GameFi projects often combine elements from different sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including tokens, DeFi, NFT, and the meta-universe, to create an immersive and rewarding gaming environment. An example of how the economy works in GameFi through smart contracts: The History and Evolution of GameFi The history and evolution of GameFi is a fascinating journey marked by the innovation, growth, and merger of the gaming industry and decentralized finance. GameFi has seen significant milestones and key events that have shaped the industry from its inception to its current state. In the early days of GameFi, projects such as Axie Infinity and CryptoKitties introduced the concept of play-to-earn (P2E) games, where players could earn cryptocurrency by playing games and participating in the in-game economy. This was a revolutionary development as it allowed players to monetize their gaming experience in previously impossible ways. GameFi's development was also marked by introducing various innovative concepts and technologies. For example, integrating NFTs (non-game tokens) allowed players to own their in-game assets and trade them on NFT trading platforms. This added a new value and utility to the game as players could now buy, sell, and trade unique digital assets. Another significant milestone for GameFi was the development of DeFi (decentralized finance) protocols in gaming ecosystems. This allowed players to farm, bet, and provide liquidity, providing new ways to generate passive income while playing. The "play-and-own" concept was also a critical development in GameFi, shifting the focus from just playing the game to owning and managing in-game assets. This has created a more engaging and rewarding gaming experience, where players play a more active role in the life and development of the games they play. Notable projects such as Legend of Arcadia, Panzerdogs, and CREO Engine have significantly shaped the GameFi industry. They have introduced innovations, partnerships, and technical advances that have pushed the boundaries of what is possible in gaming and decentralized finance. As GameFi continues to evolve, it faces challenges and growth hurdles, such as regulatory uncertainty and the need for more precise rules in the crypto-gaming space. However, the industry is also experiencing exciting developments, such as the integration of artificial intelligence, scalable second-tier solutions, and the emergence of new game genres. GameFi market today The GameFi market is experiencing significant growth and development as the number of active players and games continues to increase. In December 2023, there were more than 1 million active players in the GameFi sector. By April 2024, the number had grown to 3 million, representing a 300 percent growth in active users from 2023 to 2024. This indicates a rapidly growing and engaging market with a projected increase in market size due to this user engagement trend! The GameFi sector had a market capitalization of $20.66 billion. The market shows a diverse landscape in terms of user distribution across platforms and networks. For example, active games with the highest number of users in recent weeks include Sunflower Land ( NSE:SFL ), SecondLive ( NASDAQ:LIVE ), Planetix ($IXT), MOBOX ( AMEX:MBOX ), Tower Token ($TOWER), Crypto Unicorns ( LSE:RBW ), and others. This wide range of active games across multiple platforms and networks indicates a healthy and competitive marketplace where users participate in different games and have different experiences. Technology and tokenomics of GameFi projects The technology and tokenomics behind GameFi projects are primarily driven by integrating blockchain, NFTs (non-gaming tokens), and smart contracts. This combination creates unique gaming experiences and economic incentives, revolutionizing the gaming industry. Blockchain technology is the foundation of GameFi projects. It is a decentralized and distributed digital ledger that records transactions across multiple computers, providing transparency and security. This technology eliminates the need for intermediaries and central authorities, allowing players to own and control their in-game assets fully. Using blockchain in games also enables cross-game interoperability, where players can transfer assets from one game to another. NFTs play an essential role in GameFi by representing unique in-game assets such as characters, weapons, and lands. Unlike fungible tokens such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, NFTs are unique and cannot be replicated, making them valuable and collectible. Thus, players gain ownership of their assets, which can be traded on NFT trading platforms. The value of NFTs can increase depending on their rarity and usefulness in the game, creating economic incentives for players. Smart contracts - self-executing contracts whose terms are written directly into the code - allow you to automate various in-game processes. For example, smart contracts can create an in-game economy, manage assets, and reward players for completing tasks or participating in events. This enhances the game experience by providing players with a transparent and secure environment for economic activity. Tokenomics, or the economic model of a GameFi project, is another crucial aspect of these projects. It involves creating and distributing tokens within the game ecosystem that can be used for various purposes, such as purchasing in-game items, bidding for rewards, or participating in management decisions. Tokenomics design plays a crucial role in incentivizing player participation and maintaining the long-term sustainability of the gaming economy. The combination of blockchain, NFT, and smart contracts in GameFi projects creates a new paradigm in the gaming industry where players have full ownership and control over their in-game assets, and economic incentives are integrated into the gameplay. This enhances the gaming experience and lets players earn real money for their in-game actions. Gaming blockchains Integrating blockchain technology into the gaming industry, known as GameFi, has revolutionized how players interact and how they are rewarded for playing time or achievements. The gaming industry has blockchains such as SKL, WAX, PORTAL, and VANRY. These are the leading gaming blockchains, each unique product with advantages and vast opportunities in the fast-growing GameFi sphere. SKL SKL is a blockchain designed to create high-performance dApps to provide zero-gas scaling for players and solve the problems of high transaction fees and slow transaction processing on the network. SKL allows developers to create unique games with instant transactions, which is a priority in game creation, as well as correct operation of smart contracts and improving the quality of gameplay through the speed of the exchange processes and receiving game objects in the game. WAX WAX is a specially designed blockchain for trading virtual items and digital collectibles, making it a popular and high priority for developers to create blockchain games and NFT markets. The WAX protocol allows in-game objects to be created, bought, and sold, providing a seamless way for gamers to monetize their gaming activity. In addition, WAX can interact with the Binance Smart Chain, making it possible to transfer NFTs between players on different blockchains. PORTAL PORTAL is a cross-chain gaming system that connects all games into a single WEB3 network and establishes a connection between blockchains. PORTAL is designed to simplify moving players between games using a single account, making the platform convenient and exclusive. The problem that this project addresses is the barriers related to the fragmentation of gaming ecosystems. VANRY Vanar Chain is a blockchain ecosystem designed explicitly for the games industry and intended to provide developers with tools and modules to facilitate the transition of games to Web3. A key feature of VANRY is its focus on direct integration with blockchain, which was a crucial factor in attracting Google Cloud. This capability allows established brands to master Web3 efficiently. The Vanar Chain ecosystem is also supported by NVIDIA, Phoenix Grounds Studio, and Revolut. Promising projects in GameFi: Mavia The Heroes of Mavia project is a blockchain-based strategy game that allows players to compete in battles for cryptocurrency rewards while developing and improving their bases worldwide. Service Studios developed the game, which is set on an exceptionally designed island called Mavia. One of the critical aspects of Heroes of Mavia is the ability to earn natural financial resources, mainly through the use of a cryptocurrency called Ruby. Players can collect Ruby and other valuable resources, such as Gold and Oil, which are essential to the gameplay. Integrating blockchain and Play-to-Earn (P2E) mechanics creates new opportunities for players to enjoy their favorite game and earn additional income. An NFT trading option also allows players to buy, sell, and exchange game assets such as Land, Heroes, and Statues. In addition, Heroes of Mavia is backed by Binance Labs, confirming the project's potential and prospects in the GameFi sector. According to the vesting, most of the coins are still unlocked, and full unlocking for all users will come in November 2029. After researching the blockchain, 85.59% of the coins are locked and waiting to be unlocked in the wallets of investors, team members, and enablers. This implies that the project is focused on long-term investing, and investment funds will pump up the price closer to their full unlocks! Overall, Heroes of Mavia is an innovative GameFi project that combines exciting gameplay, the ability to earn natural financial resources, and integration with blockchain to attract the attention of players and investors. Shrap Shrap is the first innovative blockchain-enabled FPS (First-Person Shooter) game developed on the Avalanche blockchain. The game allows players to buy, sell, and trade digital assets, including in-game items and characters. Shrap has caught the attention of investors and players due to its unique concept that combines elements of a classic FPS with blockchain capabilities. Players can earn rewards for participating in various in-game events and contests, allowing them to increase the value of their digital assets. Sharp also allows users to create and sell user-generated content, which opens up new opportunities for players to express themselves creatively and create a sustainable economy within the game. Shrap has successfully raised $37.5M in funding, which confirms investors' interest in promising GameFi projects. Over the past week, Wintermute has become more active and has started funding its own wallets on exchanges. This is a direct sign of the upward movement that will be provided by its software to manage the coin's market price! It is currently a great price to buy with the expectation of a long-term investment. Karate Project Karate is a groundbreaking platform that combines full-contact karate with CGI and Epic Games' Unreal Engine. It gathers top athletes, including Olympic medalists and national champions, who compete in various weight classes. Karate Combat uses blockchain technology to create a secure and innovative asset management and decision-making system. Users can earn rewards by playing various karate-related games and completing in-game challenges. Within the game, the voting system allows one to earn and manage digital assets using the $KARATE cryptocurrency and influence the project's development. Karate is also getting ready to move up soon. According to the latest significant transactions, Wintermute has received a sufficient portion to manage the price. It is also worth noting that the project team and their investors have more than 90% of the momentum issue concentrated on their asset wallets. This will make it relatively easy to manage the price of the coin! Karate Combat successfully fuses sports and entertainment with blockchain, creating new opportunities for interaction between athletes, fans, and investors. Now is a good opportunity to buy this asset, as investors, enablers, and the team will add even more assets to their wallets and try their best to pump up the price for their future unlocks. GMEE GMEE is part of Animoca Brands, a major player in the blockchain-based gaming industry. It is backed by Binance Labs, which gives the project significant credibility. GMEE is a token to access and manage an entire gaming platform aimed at merging the world of gaming and decentralized finance (DeFi). It runs on a blockchain that allows players to earn, trade, and own digital assets with real value in a decentralized and more democratic manner. One of the critical aspects of GMEE is its integration with the Telegram platform, making it the first Telegram Gamefi token. This allows for a large and active user base of over 1 million daily active users, which is a testament to the popularity and growth potential of the project. The fact that GMEE is Telegram's largest gaming community further emphasizes its importance in the GameFi space. In addition, GMEE aims to bring blockchain to millions of gamers through its mobile gaming platform. This approach makes blockchain technology more accessible to a broader audience, especially those new to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. By offering a seamless and convenient experience, GMEE can contribute to the mass adoption of blockchain gaming. GMEE is a significant player in the blockchain-based gaming industry, backed by reputable organizations and offering a unique and accessible gaming experience. Its focus on mobile gaming and integration with the Telegram platform sets it apart from other projects in this field. Investors also have a large amount of circulating issuance, allowing them to manage the asset's price easily. The end of unlockings is coming in March 2025, just as we approach the top of the bull cycle (September 2025). It is worth considering for investment for no more than one year. Conclusion The GameFi market is projected to grow from $12.8 billion in 2023 to $126.3 billion by 2032 at % compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.0%. This growth is attributed to the growing adoption of blockchain technology and increasing interest in blockchain-based games. Despite a decline in the number of new Web3-based game launches in 2023 compared to previous years, the market still shows high interest in blockchain-based game development, indicating a bright future for the sector. Advancements in blockchain technology are expected to address scalability and efficiency issues, making GameFi platforms more accessible and user-friendly. The emergence of Layer 2 and Layer 3 solutions such as Polygon and Immutable X indicates a growing trend to improve user experience and attract more users from Web 2 games to Web 3 games. Moreover, the future of GameFi is characterized by a potential increase in institutional interest and the entry of established gaming giants into this space. This may lead to more complex games with better gameplay and sustainable economic models. Nevertheless, challenges remain, such as the need to balance economic incentives and engaging gameplay and the ongoing problem of market volatility. Despite these challenges, GameFi's future looks promising, and significant growth and transformation are expected. Best regards EXCAVO
Long
by EXCAVO
22
Trading opportunity. What to buy?In the crypto market, the largest assets are currently experiencing similar situations. On the charts, we can see that six assets have formed sideways trends. Prices for all six assets are currently at the bottom of these sideways trends. For four assets, the price temporarily dropped below the lower boundary of the sideways trend, where liquidity from sellers was collected, but then returned to the sideways trend. The prices of five assets, excluding BNB, are in zones where it makes sense to consider buying. The most interesting potential is with DOGE and AVAX. One possible strategy to consider is buying four assets that you like the most.
Long
by AlexeyWolf
16