Live stream - Candlestick Analysis for Dynamic Scalping and Day The FX Evolution team are back with an advanced session! They're talking Multi-Time Frame Analysis for precise entry and exit decisions in both scalping and day trading scenarios, Candlestick Pattern Combinations & Volume Analysis with Candlesticks.
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Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis: Finding a BalanceLooking to make more holistic investment decisions, but not sure how? Understanding the difference between technical and fundamental analysis and how to incorporate both is an essential step to accomplishing holistic investing. Today we will explore how finding a balance between these pillars of trading can help you navigate the complex world of investing.
The Importance of Finding a Balance
Finding the right balance between technical and fundamental analysis can be the key to successful investing. By combining the two approaches, traders gain a comprehensive understanding of a stock's potential, taking into consideration both the short-term market trends and the long-term value.
When it comes to investing, it's important to have a complete view of the market. Relying solely on technical analysis may leave you susceptible to missing out on crucial information about a company's financial health and growth prospects. Similarly, relying purely on fundamental analysis may cause you to overlook short-term market trends that could impact the stock's price in the near future, potentially leading to poor entries and exits.
A balanced approach allows you to leverage the strengths of both technical and fundamental analysis, providing you with a more complete picture of the investment opportunity at hand. So, whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, finding the sweet spot between technical and fundamental analysis can help maximize your chances of making a profitable investment.
Understanding Technical Analysis
Technical analysis focuses on analyzing historical price and volume data to predict future price movements. Traders using this approach often rely on chart patterns, indicators, and trendlines to identify buy and sell signals.
Chart patterns, such as triangles, head and shoulders, and double tops/bottoms, provide insights into potential price reversals or continuations. These patterns are formed as a result of the collective actions of market participants and can signal impending price movements. However, when using price patterns it is critical to understand the statistical odds of success for completion of the pattern. Price patterns can be subjective to the trader's skill and overall directional bias, so traders should combine price patterns with other forms of technical analysis.
Indicators, such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands, help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, measure the strength of a trend, and spot potential entry or exit points. When indicators are combined to form a robust and complementary system traders gain a wealth of information about the near-term health of an underlying asset. It is critical to note that no indicator system is perfect and will not guarantee you a 100% success rate. However, when paired with proper risk mitigation, psychology, and supporting forms of technical analysis, using indicators can lead to long-term success.
Trendlines are used to analyze the direction and strength of a stock's price movement. Drawing trend lines connecting the highs or lows of a stock's price can help identify support and resistance levels, price channels, and potential trend reversal areas.
Support and resistance zones are price levels on a chart that indicates where trends are likely to pause or reverse. Support is a zone where a downtrend pauses due to demand, while resistance is a zone where an uptrend pauses due to supply. These zones are based on market sentiment and human psychology, shaped by emotions such as fear, greed, and herd instinct. Traders tend to congregate near these zones, strengthening them. Support levels indicate a surplus of buyers, while resistance levels indicate a surplus of sellers. It's important to note that these levels are not exact numbers but rather "zones" that can be tested by the market.
Understanding how these tools work and how to interpret their signals is crucial for technical analysis. It allows traders to make intuitive decisions based on historical price patterns and market dynamics. However, it's important to note that technical analysis has its limitations.
Limitations of Technical Analysis
While technical analysis can provide valuable insights into a stock's potential price movements, it's important to recognize its limitations. Technical analysis is primarily focused on historical data and patterns, which may not always accurately predict future price movements.
Market sentiment, news events, and other external factors can significantly impact a stock's price, often rendering technical analysis less effective. If you don't believe me, just look at the price charts for the last four years. Try to pinpoint major world or domestic events such as the start of the pandemic or the Fed's hawkish shift. Additionally, technical analysis does not take into account the intrinsic value of a company, which is a key consideration in fundamental analysis.
Therefore, relying solely on technical analysis to make investment decisions may leave you vulnerable to market uncertainties and potential pitfalls. This is where fundamental analysis comes into play.
Understanding Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis involves examining a company's financials, industry trends, and market conditions to determine its intrinsic value. Investors who lean towards fundamental analysis believe that a company's true worth is reflected in its financial strength and growth potential.
Key factors considered in fundamental analysis include a company's revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, debt levels, competitive positioning, and management team. By analyzing these factors, investors can assess whether a company is undervalued or overvalued, and make investment decisions accordingly. Most, if not all of this information is readily available on the internet, but it can take some digging to find all the information one would need. There is also a wide range of financial-related indicators readily available on TradingView.
Fundamental analysis also takes into account macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, inflation, and government policies, which can impact the overall market and the performance of individual stocks.
How to Conduct Fundamental Analysis
Conducting fundamental analysis involves a thorough examination of a company's financial statements, such as its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. These statements provide insights into a company's revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities, and cash flows.
Analyzing financial ratios, such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, return on equity (ROE), and debt-to-equity ratio, helps investors assess a company's financial health and profitability. Much of this information is available on TradingView under the financials tab. TradingView has done an excellent job of making a majority of the aforementioned financial data available, right at your fingertips.
Industry analysis is another important aspect of fundamental analysis. Understanding the industry dynamics, competitive landscape, and market trends can provide insights into a company's growth potential and its ability to outperform its peers. There is a plethora of this information online, and diligence in your research will make a world of difference.
By combining financial analysis with industry analysis, investors can gain a deeper understanding of a company's overall prospects and make more informed investment decisions.
Finding a Balance Between Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Finding the right balance between technical and fundamental analysis requires a thoughtful approach. Here are some strategies to help you integrate the two approaches:
Start with fundamental analysis: Begin by analyzing a company's financials and industry trends to assess its long-term growth potential. This will provide you with a solid foundation for your investment decisions.
Use technical analysis for timing: Once you've identified a promising investment opportunity based on fundamental analysis, use technical analysis to refine your entry and exit points. Technical indicators and chart patterns can help you identify optimal times to buy or sell a stock.
Consider the bigger picture: While technical analysis focuses on short-term market trends, it's important to consider the long-term value of a company. Evaluate the fundamental factors that can impact a company's growth potential and use technical analysis as a tool to validate your investment thesis.
Keep an eye on market sentiment: Market sentiment can influence stock prices in the short term. By staying informed about news events, economic indicators, and market trends, you can better understand the context in which technical and fundamental analysis are operating.
By finding a balance between technical and fundamental analysis, you can better manage your investment decisions that take into account both short-term market dynamics and long-term value. This balanced approach can help you navigate the complex world of investing and maximize your chances of success.
In conclusion, understanding the difference between technical and fundamental analysis is crucial for making theoretically sound investment decisions. By finding a balance between the two approaches, you can gain a comprehensive understanding of a stock's potential, considering both the short-term market trends and the long-term value. So, whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, incorporating both technical and fundamental analysis can help provide a better view and maximize your chances of making profitable investment decisions.
Happy Trading!
7 Forex Trading Tips (To help you be successful in 2024)7 Tips for all Forex Traders (to succeed in 2024)
So many new traders come into with an expectation of quickly becoming a millionaire. They soon learn that making money from trading isn’t as simple as just placing trades and collecting profits. They need some forex trading tips that can help them to succeed in the market. If they get these useful tips and combine them with a good and hard work there’s a chance that they can become successful as a forex trader. If this sounds like something, you’d like keep reading. This article will give you 7 forex trading tips that can help you improve forex trading results.
Many new traders look to this scalping type of trading where positions are held for a short time, usually less than a day. This type of trading has become so popular because it is also considered as a way to deliver quick profits to a trader’s account. Understanding the dangers of short-term trading are also important. Short-term forex trades typically make far less on each trade, but the higher frequency of trades makes up for this, and at the end of the day this trading style can deliver a good number of . You will choose between short-term forex trading and long-term forex trading at some point in trading career. Whether you stay with the short-term trading or switch to long term trading will be determined by your own and style.
The following forex trading tips are meant to help you control your risk and manage your money effectively. Hopefully these 7 forex trading tips will help you become a better trader, in 2024.
1) Understand your own personality and trading style
It might seem like obvious advice, but knowing your own personality and trading style is much easier said than done. We all have our own personality and goals, and we all have our own unique approach to the markets and trading. You need to know what your personality and approach is if you want to be a successful forex trader.
While some traders are most comfortable with small, safe positions, others love to swing for the fences with the riskiest, but potentially most profitable, trades. Which way is yours?
Also think about whether you like to be a follower who might work well with a trend following approach. Or maybe you like to go against the crowd and are always looking for a different way to approach things. This personality type often does well as a contrarian trader. You don’t need to figure this all out right now, but you should keep it in mind.
2) Choose your Best Broker
You already know there are literally hundreds of brokers you can choose from, and each one is different in some ways. Some focus on specific asset types, while others may work best for broad approach. There are brokers for and others for pro traders. Do you need automatic broker ? Is the regulation of a broker important to you? Ask yourself these questions before choosing a broker.
3) Learn and Practice Several Trading Strategies
If you want to make forex trading a career you should want to become an expert forex trader. That means learning and mastering multiple professional trading strategies. Just as a lawyer will have a different approach to traffic court versus civil court, so you need to have a different approach to different market conditions.
Having several trading strategies at your disposal gives you a broader look and understanding of the market. It also gives you the option of having the best trading strategy no matter how market conditions change.
4) Start Broad and Finish Narrow when analyzing charts
Always begin your analysis from the higher timeframes. Looking at the weekly and daily chart will give you the big picture and long-term trends. From there you can drill down to the 4-hour, 1-hour, or shorter time frames. Once you know the long-term trend you can use the short-term charts to find short-term opportunities in the same direction as the broader market trends.
There’s truth to the old saying that “The trend is your friend.”
5) Always Have a Trading Plan
There’s a saying that goes “Fail to plan, plan to fail” and it is appropriate for forex traders to keep it in mind. Trading plan is what will tell you when to enter and exit your position, the profit target, how much risk you’ll be willing to accept, and everything else regarding trade. It will keep you from getting too fearful or greedy, and should prevent emotional decision making.
In all honesty having a trading plan is one of the most important tips, and it should probably be at the top of this list. And the key is not just to have a plan, but to follow it religiously, and to take the time to analyze how well it performs so you know when changes might be needed.
6) Protect your Capital by Managing your Risk on every trade
Protecting your capital is what will keep you in the trading game when others have been thrown out by their own careless risk taking behavior. Remember that the market will always be there for another day and another trade, and you want to be sure you have capital to take advantage of that in your trading adventures.
This means always calculating your risk on any trade, and knowing when to enter and when to take a day off. Volatility is good, but not if it increases your risk to the point that you blow up your account. Also be sure to always use stop losses to protect from unforeseen moves.
7) Price action on charts (not feelings)/Never stop learning
You might be thinking this is basic, but too many traders fall into the trap of trading on emotions and hunches rather than facts. Always trade what the market shows, not what you hope to see. Wait for your trade setup and avoid trading based on emotions. Two things you can do to help ensure you are trading with facts and not emotions is to have a clear trading plan that you’re following at all times, and to keep a detailed journal of trades.
The forex market is one of the most complex financial systems ever created, and no one will ever know all there is to know about it, especially since market conditions are always changing. This makes it crucial for you to always be learning. Because the forex market is ever-changing you need to understand that what worked yesterday won’t necessarily work today. And when your strategy stops working it would be good to have the knowledge to know why it’s stopped working, and how to fix it.
Always look to try new strategies, find new ways to research the market, master technical tools and your fundamental analyzing strategies. Last of all, keep an eye on evolving technologies like auto-trading, back-testing software, and new technical trading indicators. Each might have a place in your future trading plans.
Rate Cut 1930 - Pattern Recognition: 30s vs Today In 1930, when the Fed cut interest rates, the market crashed further. In today's tutorial, we will be comparing the 30s and today’s market to identify some of their similarities.
Where exactly are interest rates’ direction pointing us?
As we may have read, many analysts are forecasting that there will be a few rate cuts in 2024. Is this the best option?
My work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities.
Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation
Micro 2-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 2YY
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 5-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 5YY
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 30-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 30Y
0.01 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Fibonacci Retracement StrategiesFibonacci retracements are a cornerstone in the toolkit of many traders, offering a mathematical approach to identifying potential areas where reversals may occur. This article delves into the intricacies of using Fibonacci retracements, covering everything from basic understanding to strategies involving other indicators. Read on to gain insights into how to effectively incorporate these levels into your trading strategy.
What Are Fibonacci Retracements?
Fibonacci retracements are a popular technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels on a chart. Developed around the concept of the Fibonacci sequence—a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones—the Fibonacci indicator applies this mathematical formula to financial markets.
Key retracement levels are often considered at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% of a price move. The 61.8% level, in particular, is frequently referred to as the Fibonacci retracement golden ratio, owing to its significance in both nature and financial markets. Traders commonly use these areas to anticipate where the price may reverse, thus providing strategic entry and exit points.
Fibonacci Retracements: How to Use Them
Using the Fibonacci tool for trading begins with identifying a significant swing, either an uptrend or a downtrend, on the chart. The tool is then applied at the swing low and swing high of the price movement. In an uptrend, it starts at the swing low and ends at the swing high; in a downtrend, it's the opposite. This action plots horizontal lines at the key Fibonacci levels, providing potential areas where price could reverse.
Concerning the Fibonacci retracement time frame, it's essential to know that this tool can be applied across various time frames—from one-minute charts to monthly charts. However, the reliability of the retracement levels often increases on higher time frames. That means those plotted on daily or weekly charts generally offer stronger support or resistance compared to those on shorter time frames.
Strategies Using Fibonacci Retracements
In trading, combining Fibonacci retracements with other technical indicators can significantly enhance decision-making. Below are three distinct strategies that utilise these retracements in conjunction with other tools to identify high-probability trade setups.
To see how they work, consider following along in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. There, you’ll gain access to over 1,200 trading tools—including the ones featured in this article.
Fibonacci Retracement with Moving Average Crossover
In this Fibonacci trading strategy, traders combine Fibonacci retracements with two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) set to 9 and 12 periods to pinpoint entry and exit points. After identifying a trend, either bullish or bearish, they apply the retracement tool to gauge potential reversal zones. Specifically, the focus is on the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels. If the price reacts at any of these zones—potentially confirmed by a bullish or bearish candlestick pattern—the next step is to observe the EMA indicators.
Entry
Traders often watch for a moving average crossover in the direction of the existing trend as an indication of potential entry.
Stop Loss
Stop losses may be placed above or below the nearest swing high or low. Alternatively, some opt for setting it beyond the next level, including 23.6% or 78.6%.
Take Profit
Profits are typically taken at the high or low of the retracement zone where the price initially reacted.
Fibonacci Retracement with Stochastic Oscillator
In this Fibonacci retracement strategy, the initial setup is similar to the one involving moving averages: traders identify a prevailing trend and apply Fibonacci retracements to find possible reversal zones at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. The twist here is the use of the Stochastic Oscillator, a momentum indicator that ranges between 0 and 100. The oscillator helps identify overbought or oversold conditions when the price reaches these areas.
Entry
Traders generally look for the Stochastic Oscillator to exceed 80 (overbought) or drop below 20 (oversold) when the price reaches one of these Fibonacci zones. The entry signal often comes when the oscillator crosses back below 80 or above 20 after a reaction.
Stop Loss
Stop losses can be situated either above or below the closest swing high or swing low. Some traders may also choose to place it beyond an adjacent level, such as 23.6% or 78.6%.
Take Profit
Take profits are commonly located at the level where the price first exhibited a reaction, be it a high or a low.
50% Fibonacci Retracement Strategy
The 50% Fibonacci retracement strategy is a lower risk-to-reward approach but one that’s simple. Unlike other strategies that utilise multiple Fibonacci levels or additional indicators, this method zeroes in on the 50% mark as the focal point for entry, making it straightforward for traders. The 50% point specifically plays into the idea of mean reversion, which states that the price is likely to return to its average over time; however, traders can choose 38.2% or 61.8% areas if preferred.
Entry
Traders typically look to enter a position when the price reaches and reacts from the 50% retracement level, aiming to ride an existing trend.
Stop Loss
Due to the wider scope of this strategy, stop losses are usually set beyond the high or low of the entire Fibonacci retracement, offering a buffer against potential volatility.
Take Profit
Traders often opt to take profits at key support or resistance areas that offer at least a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Alternatively, one may choose to forgo setting a take profit and instead trail a stop loss above or below new swing points that develop.
The Bottom Line
In summary, understanding and applying Fibonacci retracements can enhance your trading strategies, especially when used in conjunction with other technical indicators. These retracement levels offer high-probability zones where price might reverse, creating potential entry and exit points. If you're looking to implement a Fibonacci forex strategy in a secure, low-cost trading environment, consider opening an FXOpen account to access over 50 currency pairs and a comprehensive range of trading resources.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How to Quantify & Identify (real-time) a Trading RangeOne of the most challenging & frustrating tasks for a trader,
is to define with a rules-based (systematic) methodology,
and identify (on a real-time basis),
when a market is in a trading range.
Using the MACD-v both of these goals are achieved.
The market is defined as being as "Ranging"
(one of the Core 7 Range Rules/States)
when the MACD-v is between the -50 and 50 ranges,
for more than 25 bars consecutively.
VIX Index at Lowest Levels Since 2017OVERVIEW
As of 12/12/2023, CBOE:VIX is at 11.82.
There have only been a handful of periods over the last 30 years where stock market volatility is at a similar level, including 2007 and 1994.
Some would argue it implies an increasing level of volatility will be due in 2024.
What is the VIX?
The CBOE Volatility Index, is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors often refer to the VIX as the "fear index" or "fear gauge" because it is one of the most recognized measures of market volatility.
Here's a breakdown of what the VIX represents:
Volatility Measurement:
The VIX measures the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated using the bid and ask prices of S&P 500 index options.
Forward-Looking: Unlike many market metrics that look at past performance, the VIX is forward-looking. It provides a 30-day forward projection of volatility.
Market Sentiment Indicator: A high VIX value indicates that traders expect significant changes (volatility) in stock prices, which is often associated with market uncertainty or fear. Conversely, a low VIX suggests low expected volatility and is often associated with market stability.
Not a Direct Stock Market Indicator : It's important to note that the VIX does not measure the direction of stock market movements. Instead, it measures how much the market is expected to fluctuate, regardless of the direction.
Use in Investment Strategies: Some investors use the VIX to help in making decisions about market timing. For example, a high VIX might suggest a market turning point, leading some to consider it a good time to buy, while others might see it as a signal to sell.
VIX Derivatives: There are various financial products, such as VIX futures and options, that allow investors to trade based on their views of future market volatility.
Risk Management Tool: For portfolio managers and sophisticated investors, the VIX can be a tool to hedge against market volatility or to take a position on future volatility.
In summary, the VIX is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. It has become a crucial tool in financial markets for hedging, trading, and investment strategy formulation
Gold Price Susceptible to Test of 50-Day SMAThe price of gold remains under pressure after spiking to a fresh yearly high ($2147), with the weakness in bullion pulling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) from overbought territory.
Gold Price Outlook
The price of gold sits near the monthly low ($1976) as it weakens for the third consecutive day, with a break/close below the $1973 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $1977 (50% Fibonacci extension) region raising the scope for a move towards $1937 (38.2% Fibonacci extension).
Failure to defend the November low ($1932) opens up the $1886 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to $1897 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), but the price of gold may track the positive slope in the 50-Day ($1967) should it continue to hold above the moving average.
Need a break/close above $2018 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to bring $2076 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) back on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the yearly high ($2147).
Is Nasdaq 100 Ready For A Move Towards It’s All-Time High?From the beginning of November till today, indices experienced a strong rally, where some made double digit gains. EASYMARKETS:NDQUSD has been one of those, which added around 12% to its value. But that’s, basically, what the index lost in the period between the mid-July and end of October. We can see that the index is now getting a hold near the previous highest point of this year, at around 16062. Although we saw a few breakouts above that hurdle, still, the price remains below it. Although there is a good chance to see further declines, we would prefer to wait for the body of the weekly candle to stay above that hurdle first.
If that happens, EASYMARKETS:NDQUSD may travel further north, possibly targeting the area near the all-time high. First, it may be the level at 16659, which might come into play. That level marks the high of 27th of December 2021. Slightly above it lies the current all-time high, at 16767. That is the highest point of 2021.
To consider a move lower, at least in the near term, a drop below the 15719 zone would be required. That zone is marked by the highest point of September and by the current lowest point of December. If that drop happens, this may clear the path towards a larger correction lower towards the medium-term tentative upside support line drawn from the lowest point of January.
Disclaimer:
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AMD Surges After Launching AI chip that Could Challenge NvidiaAMD unveiled its MI300X chip, an AI-centered semiconductor designed to challenge Nvidia's global market dominance.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) shares jumped in early Thursday trading after the semiconductor group unveiled an AI-focused chip for the data-center market, which it says could be valued at as much as $45 billion over the coming years.
AMD, which in June pegged the total addressable market for data-center chips at around $30 billion, launched the MI300X chip, designed to support generative-artificial-intelligence technologies. And it unveiled a next-generation semiconductor focused on supercomputing, the Instinct M1300A.
The MI300X, analysts say, could challenge Nvidia's NVDA dominant H100 graphics-processing-unit chip in the large-language-model AI market. Last month, AMD said the new chip could generate $400 million in fourth-quarter sales while the broader family of MI300 semis are expected to see sales of more than $2 billion over the whole of 2024.
Large language models "continue to increase in size and complexity, requiring massive amounts of memory and compute,” CEO Lisa Su said during last night's launch event at the company's Santa Clara, Calif., headquarters. “And we know the availability of GPUs is the single most important driver of AI adoption.”
Advanced Micro Devices shares were marked 2% higher in premarket trading to indicate an opening bell price of $119.12 each. Such a move would nudge the stock into positive territory for the past six months.
AMD last forecast fourth-quarter sales in the region of $6.1 billion, plus or minus $300 million, with gross margins of around 51.5%. That outlook following a mixed third-quarter-earnings report that showed big gains in PC revenue had partly offset the ongoing decline in gaming.
"While AMD acknowledged that its software can be further improved, it has reached the point of being 'good enough' for volume deployment," said KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh. He reiterated his overweight rating on the stock following last night's launch event.
"We're encouraged that AMD has released a competitive AI GPU within a massively fast-growing (total addressable market), with endorsements by many high-profile customers," he added.
Technical Analysis
The RSI (14) is at 56.52, indicating a bullish momentum. The MACD (12,26) is at 0.68, suggesting a positive trend. AMD is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
What Leveraged Bitcoin Is Doing In This MoveA derivative indicator I have used for many years to analyze Bitcoin is the BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS symbol on Tradingview which displays the number of Bitcoins held in Leveraged Long positions on the Bitfinex platform. This is an indicator of the aggregate long positions held on margin on the platform. It can be used to see what speculative position holders are doing.
Recently, during this run up in the price of INDEX:BTCUSD it seems that the Leveraged positions have begun to unwind by taking profit. They are down -23.5% as of today from the start of November 2023.
Analyzing this chart is different to On-Chain Analysis because the Bitcoin involved are all stored internally at Bitfinex. No new Bitcoin are created (because they cannot be) by taking these positions. Rather the Bitcoin that are custodied on Bitfinex and put up for the ability for other traders to borrow and the owners to earn interest are involved in the count.
A few takeaways:
After months of holding leveraged long positions these traders are taking their profits into this move.
By having less exposure on margin the risk of a liquidation event (and liquidation candle) is diminished.
Leveraged Long positions are net negative meaning that leveraged positions are not the cause of this upward move.
Top traders' methods: A scenario-based view of the marketsThe best traders think in scenarios of market events. They know from experience that the market can do "anything," so it is better to be prepared for any eventuality. This approach is part of mental flexibility. It can take several forms.
Flexibility in approaching the market reduces stress
Flexibility in our approach to the market reduces stress - if we are prepared for different scenarios of events it is certainly hard to surprise us isn't it?
A lot of stress comes from the fact that we like to attach ourselves to our analysis and our rationale, and we feel annoyed when the market acts differently.
If you take several options for the development of events and prepare for each of them - you are already taking into account that, for example, one or even several orders will go to cost. With this approach, you are already prepared for the matter.
You also don't succumb to the illusion of your own infallibility and need to be right. Experienced traders know that being right is useless and even harmful, what matters is making money, not being right.
Flexibility can promote better profits.
Flexibility can promote better profits when you think through several possible scenarios and prepare to... make money on each of them.
- If the market falls, I'll do this, enter here and the TP will be here, and if it rises I'll enter at that place and set the TP like this.
You prepare your psyche to act according to what the market will do - just like a hunter waits for the game to come out in one place or another.
The market's subsequent denial of being "right" can take a toll on your self-esteem, and as you already know, this is an unfavorable phenomenon. Therefore, think in open-ended terms - that the market can rise or fall in different scenarios. Think how you will make money on each of them, and don't be attached to any direction, any behavior and any "right." Think how you will make money on possible ups and possible downs, and don't be tied to any direction, any behavior and any "rationale."
Flexibility over the long term
In the long run, you can simulate for yourself many different profit and loss scenarios. Especially simulating, recalculating a series of losses works positively. It is sobering. If you are prepared for the worst that can happen, and you are able to survive it and come out on top - you are on your way to professionalism.
Be prepared for a series of battles and for the fact that even though you will lose some of them, in the end you must win the war.
Tip:
When preparing to enter the market, think about where you will enter, where you will put SL and where you will put TP. Think about the different ways you can manage an open order: what are your choices? Exit because the system gives a signal in the opposite direction? Exit because the market froze instead of moving in your direction? Exit because the indications of the indicators are changing?
Think through the different possibilities of market behavior. Together with them, think through your reactions and your decisions.
If you prepare in advance - the management of the order itself will no longer require thinking, but only the execution of the strategy adopted earlier. Such a situation is more advantageous, because the decision-making process in conditions when there is no pressure is better.
If you think through your reactions and decisions earlier order management will no longer require thinking, but the execution of the strategy adopted earlier. Such a situation is more advantageous because the decision-making process in conditions when there is no mental pressure is better.
Also think about what can knock you out, pull you away from your plan? What kind of distractions? Pets at home, family, phones? Think about how to eliminate these distractions or how to prepare for them when they occur.
Traits of master traders
Trading, systems, psyche is something unique. That is, every trader is different. At a certain level, traders participate in competitions, struggles with other traders.
At the next level they are left alone, especially the best. And the best of the best start struggling with themselves. They are themselves yesterday's benchmark for what they want to achieve today.
Thus, they enter the struggle with themselves, with this most important opponent.
Therefore, think about it and imitate them. Be better today than who you were yesterday. And tomorrow be better than who you are today.
Your new goal, which will lead you to the level of Master: "I will be the best trader I can be."
Who are PineCoders?People often ask us who PineCoders are. Simply put, we are a group of Pine programmers who aim to contribute to the TradingView ecosystem. Many of the Pine Wizards are PineCoders, yet many PineCoders are not Wizards. We are a relatively small group of just about 40. Our group of programmers contributes to the ever-growing community in many ways. Some may create script publications for users to benefit from, while other members are Pine experts contributing in different, often anonymous, ways. We don't publish a list of PineCoders members because many are happy avoiding the limelight; they do what they do for the love of Pine and our community.
PineCoders strive to represent, in a balanced way, the interests of Pine programmers, script publishers and vendors, and the traders who use scripts on TradingView. Oh, and we have lots of fun together.
█ WHAT DO PINECODERS DO?
Many of you recognize us as the script moderators who operate this account. However, script moderation is only one manifestation of our activities. In the Pine realm, we also:
• Help maintain and evolve the Script Publishing Rules and Vendor Requirements .
• Answer questions in the Q&A forums we support: the Q&A chat on TradingView, the Telegram Q&A group , and Stack Overflow .
• Moderate the Telegram Q&A group and the Q&A chat on TradingView.
• Manage the private spaces where our top programmers share and help improve Pine.
• Design solutions to improve the Pine-related aspects of TradingView.
• Help define Pine-related development priorities.
• Tally suggestions for improvement from Pine users.
• Answer Pine-related support tickets.
• Test new features and changes to Pine.
• Report bugs.
• Publish content from the PineCoders and TradingView accounts.
• Publish a monthly script in TASC and from the PineCodersTASC account.
• Publish Pine-related news in our broadcast channels.
• Select and support our Trusted Pine Programmers for Hire .
• Select the Editors' Picks for Community Scripts .
• Select the yearly Pine Wizards nominees.
• Organize Pinefests , the Pine programming contests .
• Collaborate on the technical documentation of Pine.
█ HOW ARE PINECODERS CHOSEN?
Any member of PineCoders can propose a candidacy. When our management team approves it, they submit the nomination to our members to cast their votes. If the majority of our group agrees, we send an invitation to the user. We select people who are agile in Pine and interested in contributing to our ever-growing community. We keep our group relatively small but diverse, as we believe it fosters a dynamic conducive to productive exchanges and efficient decision making.
█ WHAT'S YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH TRADINGVIEW?
A handful of users launched PineCoders in 2019 with the support of a TradingView co-founder who recognized the potential of uniting power users with good ideas to improve Pine. The official support from this visionary and our daily collaboration with key TradingView teams are some of the main reasons we can successfully realize our projects.
We founded PineCoders as a volunteer group, and to this day, the vast majority of PineCoders activities are made possible because of volunteer contributions. As our projects evolved and some work required a few of us to commit to internal TradingView activities, those few also added contract work for TradingView to their volunteer activities within PineCoders.
█ WE ARE NOT ALONE
Our group does not hold a monopoly on good deeds. Many other Pine programmers also contribute to the strength and liveliness of our unique community.
With TradingView being so popular, a constant influx of newcomers to Pine want to learn how to enhance their trading practice by programming indicators and strategies. It would be impossible for PineCoders to support them alone, and it's comforting to see that even today, some people still find purpose in volunteering their time and knowledge to help others.
Thank you to all those who help our fantastic community in one way or another.
Cryptographic Truth Final Run (Chainlink) (Re-Upload)The fractal continues to play out like the last Chainlink Cycle.
I started to see a bump and run pattern forming, so I went back to 2019 where we are now in the fractal, and we find the same pattern: a textbook bump and run pattern. There is now a very high chance that we will reverse from this point; we just completed the throwback with a double bottom candle pattern.
My position is still open from 14.6 and being added to the long position under 14.
At the moment, LINK is consolidating under the 1/1 Gann Fan, as you can see below.
According to the fractal, we don't get the real break till the 1st of December; it might look something like this.
The condition for this theory on the fractal playing out being invalidated is if Chainlink loses this lower high structure and breaks this red support trendline.
Business Cycle Rotation Part 3Last year I produced several posts that described an exercise that utilizes long term momentum changes between asset classes and the relationship among asset classes to anticipate the business cycle. That series and parts 1 and 2 of this series are linked below.
Parts one and two of the series described the general methodology, presented the matrix with the raw data and showed the process used to consolidate the raw data and begin to draw conclusions around the economy's position in the current business cycle.
Before I plot the distilled sectors onto a stylized business/market cycle overlay, I plot equities, rates and commodities onto an overlay with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the United States. CLI readings above 100 (dashed red line) suggest economic expansion to come while below the 100 line suggests weakness, and perhaps recession to come. The index is currently below 100 but rising toward the 100 line. So still weakening but at a much slower pace.
To help visualize the cycle I plot 10 year rates (inverted), SPX and the Thompson Core CRB index along with the CLI. Viewed in the manner the cycle that began with the bond top appears to be consistent in terms of sequencing. Rates topped, economy (CLI) topped, followed by equities and finally commodities top as the CLI enters the economic contraction phase.
Fast forward to todays configuration. In this perspective, despite the sharp rally in early November, while there is room for a cyclic rally, there is no sign of a lasting bond bottom (see next chart).
Commodities, while off their lows don't appear to be suggesting a new leg up in the cycle (but may be moving that way).
I think of rates as the first mover in the cycle. To believe that the cycle has turned virtuous I like to see ten year rates make a solid top. The ten year note monthly chart has broken above the multi decade downtrend and above the 3.25% pivot. While a bit overbought in terms of momentum and a small RSI divergence is showing up, the structure from the 2020 low is completely intact. Until I see solid signs of a monthly perspective yield top in the two year and ten year, it will be difficult for me to label this as the kind of high that would lead a change in the economic cycle.
The distilled sectors are placed onto stylized market and economic cycle sine curves. If markets (dark blue curve) are correctly anticipating the business cycle (grey curve) the business cycle is somewhere past peak, and should be expected to steadily deteriorate over coming quarters.
In part 5 we will examine the totality of the evidence and draw conclusions around the current cycle and what it implies for 2024.
And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum.
Good Trading:
Stewart Taylor, CMT
Chartered Market Technician
Taylor Financial Communications
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Fibonacci: The FundamentalsApplying Nature's Harmony to Financial Markets
From flower petals to far away galaxies, the Fibonacci pattern is found across the natural world.
Fibonacci patterns are derived from the Fibonacci number sequence where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, and so forth.
Some traders believe the Fibonacci sequence and its derived ratios, like 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% occur in the price movements of financial markets. These ratios are used to predict levels at which assets might retrace or extend their trends.
I. Fibonacci Retracements: Add Precision When Timing Pullbacks
Fibonacci retracements are based on the idea that after a significant price movement, an asset often retraces a portion of that move before continuing its original trend. The retracement is simply a pullback against the impulsive trending move.
Identifying the impulsive trending move is pivotal to drawing Fibonacci retracements. This trending move is known as the ‘impulse leg’ and is labelled X-A on our charts (below).
The Fibonacci retracement tool can be overlayed on top of any impulse leg to provide a series of retracement levels generated from the Fibonacci number sequence.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
38.2%: This level indicates a moderate retracement. It's often seen as an area where traders might anticipate a reversal or a continuation of the trend.
50%: A key level, suggesting a potential halfway point for the retracement. Traders closely watch this level for potential shifts in market sentiment.
61.8%: Known as the "golden ratio," this level holds perhaps the most significance in the world of Fibonacci – it is the ratio described by Leonardo da Vinci as representing divinely inspired simplicity and orderliness.
78.6%: While not as commonly used as the others, some traders like the 78.6% retracement as it is perceived to offer the greatest potential reward relative to X (the inception of the trending move). However, the deeper the retracement the weaker the trend.
Fibonacci Retracements in Uptrends:
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Fibonacci Retracements in Downtrends:
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Uses of Fibonacci Retracements:
Identifying Support and Resistance: These retracement levels often act as potential areas where price movements may pause or reverse.
Planning Entry and Exit Points: You can use Fibonacci retracements to plan entry points for trades during a trend and set exit points to take profits or minimise losses.
Confirmation Tool: When Fibonacci levels align with other technical indicators or chart patterns, they can provide confirmation for trade setups, adding confidence to trading decisions.
II. Fibonacci Extensions: Projecting Price Targets and Beyond
Fibonacci extensions are used to project potential future levels beyond the initial trend. They help traders anticipate where price movements might extend.
Like Fibonacci retracements, the impulse leg (labelled X-A) is key. The Fibonacci trend extension tool can be overlayed onto your impulse leg to generate Fibonacci-based levels to which the impulse leg may extend.
Common Extension Levels: Some commonly used levels are 138.2%, 161.8%, and 261.8%.
Fibonacci Extension Levels
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Fibonacci Extensions in Uptrends
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Fibonacci Extensions in Downtrends
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Uses of Fibonacci Extensions:
Setting Profit Targets: You can use extensions to establish potential price targets, aiding in setting profit-taking levels for their trades.
Predicting Price Reversals or Extensions: These extension levels can signal where a trend might exhaust or where it could extend further, assisting traders in adjusting their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion:
While debates surround the impact of Fibonacci in markets, the core principles—identifying strong impulse legs, timing pullbacks precisely, and projecting targets—form the cornerstone of price action trading. Next week, we'll explore the synergy of retracements and extensions, delving deeper into the captivating realm of advanced Fibonacci patterns.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
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The 2023 Broker Awards: Vote Now! It's our duty as a trading community to support each other, no matter our backgrounds or experience levels.
Our annual Broker Awards help traders find the perfect broker for their trading needs. The awards are entirely based on verified reviews from real traders, like you.
The best part? Your votes decide the winning brokers. That's right, real reviews and real connections, all from real traders. Be sure to connect to your favorite broker and write your first verified review, if you haven't already.
That single vote could push your broker to the top of the list. No vote is too small. Get involved, traders!
To learn more about our 2023 Broker Awards check out the the links below. We've got explainers, details, and more for everyone:
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The TradingView Broker Awards are where the world's best compete to show off their brokering capabilities on an international stage.
May the best brokers win.
Flight Boarding - Grand Theft Auto 6Hey fellow gamers and number-crunchers, gather 'round! 🎮
Big news alert: Rockstar Games is dropping the first trailer for Grand Theft Auto 6 on December 5, 2023! twitter.com
Now, for those who live and breathe gaming, no further explanation needed. But hey, to the data lovers and boomers in the house, let me break it down for you.
Rockstar is the genius behind hits like Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, Bully, and La Noire. Flashback to 2013 when they unleashed Grand Theft Auto 5, which turned out to be the best-selling console/PC-only game EVER. Talk about a gaming legend!
Fast forward to now, and GTA 5 has racked up a mind-blowing 185 million units in sales by August 2023. That's across three console generations and PC, making it the cash cow of the entertainment world.
Hold on to your controllers because Grand Theft Auto 6 is gearing up for launch, and the prediction is a whopping $1 billion in sales from the get-go! 🤑 Experts are betting on at least 25 million copies flying off the shelves on release day.
For the financial gurus out there, I've got the deets on TTWO Rockstar Games history prices in my previous analysis. And if you're eyeing the market, the sweet spot for entering the trade seems to be at that red horizontal line at 146 - 150. But here's the cherry on top: I believe we're aiming for a new all-time high beyond 210! 🚀
So, who's ready for the next gaming revolution? 🌟 Share your thoughts below and let the positive vibes flow! 🚀🎉
ADX Trend-Based StrategiesThe Average Directional Index is a highly-respected tool in many traders’ arsenals, capable of measuring the strength of market trends. This article delves into two ADX-based strategies, exploring how to combine this tool with other popular indicators like RSI and EMA for a well-rounded trading system.
Understanding the ADX Trend Indicator
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is a trend strength indicator commonly used in technical analysis. It helps traders identify the strength of market trends, thereby serving as a key component in crafting an effective trend trading strategy.
Originally developed by Welles Wilder, the ADX oscillates between 0 and 100, providing a quantitative measure of trend strength. When its value is below 25, the trend is typically weak or non-existent. Conversely, readings above 25 signify a stronger trend, with values over 50 suggesting a very strong trend. Traders often use these numerical benchmarks to assess whether to enter or exit a trade based on the prevailing trend conditions.
Importantly, this tool does not indicate the direction of the trend; rather, it measures the trend's intensity. Therefore, it is often used in conjunction with other indicators to provide a complete picture of market conditions. This makes the ADX a versatile and valuable indicator for any trader aiming to build a robust trend trading strategy.
Basic Parameters for ADX
The ADX usually comes with a default setting of a 14-period lookback. This means the indicator evaluates the trend strength based on the last 14 bars, whether you're using a daily, hourly, or any other time frame.
In most trading platforms, including FXOpen’s own TickTrader platform, setting up the ADX involves selecting it from the platform's list and then choosing the period parameter. Some traders tweak the period to fit their trading style, although caution is advised when straying from the standard settings.
Interpreting ADX signals is straightforward: a rising value suggests an intensifying trend, while a falling value indicates a weakening trend. This makes it easier for traders to gauge market conditions and determine their trend-following strategy.
ADX and RSI Strategy
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is often dubbed one of the best trend indicators when used in combination with ADX. When employed together, they form a powerful duo to identify trend strength and market momentum.
For this strategy, both indicators are used at their default settings: a 14-period lookback for both ADX and RSI. Horizontal lines are drawn at 45 and 55 on the RSI window and at 25 on the ADX window to serve as reference points.
Entry
When the RSI rises above 55 or falls below 45, traders wait for the ADX to cross above the 25 level to enter.
It's discretionary for traders to decide whether to enter when the RSI is in overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) territories. While these conditions may offer trading opportunities, they can also be riskier as the trend could easily continue.
Stop Loss
Traders often position a stop loss above or below a nearby swing point to protect their trades.
Take Profit
Profits may be taken when the ADX falls below 25, signalling a weakening trend.
Alternatively, traders can opt to exit the trade at a predetermined support or resistance level.
ADX and EMA Strategy
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a type of moving average that responds quickly to price changes and new trends. For this setup, the EMA is configured to a 28-period lookback, while the ADX retains its default 14-period setting. The EMA is essentially another trend filter, acting as a useful baseline for trend direction.
Entry
Traders look for entry opportunities when the price is either above or below the 28-period EMA, indicating the direction of the trend.
Once the ADX crosses above 25, confirming trend strength, traders wait for the price to retrace back to the EMA line to enter the trade.
Stop Loss
A stop loss may be positioned just beyond the EMA.
Alternatively, placing the stop loss at a nearby swing point offers another way to mitigate risk.
Take Profit
Profits might be taken when the ADX falls below the 25 level, suggesting that the trend may be losing momentum.
As another option, traders may choose to exit at a predetermined support or resistance level.
Benefits and Risks of ADX Trend Trading Strategies
Understanding the benefits and risks associated with ADX-based strategies is crucial for traders aiming for consistent returns. Here's a breakdown:
Benefits
Objective Trend Strength: ADX quantifies trend strength, removing subjective guesswork.
Versatility: ADX can be combined with various other indicators like RSI and EMA to create multi-dimensional strategies.
Clear Signals: Thresholds like ADX 25 provide clear, easy-to-understand entry and exit signals.
Risks
Lagging Indicator: Being a trend-following tool, ADX can lag, potentially causing late entries or exits.
False Signals: Market volatility can lead to false ADX signals, especially in lower time frames.
The Bottom Line
In essence, mastering the ADX indicator can equip traders with the ability to discern even stock trend patterns effectively. Its versatility and simplicity mean it’s a great inclusion for trend-following strategies. The strategies given here offer a foundation to work with, but it’s well worth experimenting for yourself and seeing how the ADX works in practice.
If you’re looking to put these trading techniques into practice, you can consider opening an FXOpen account. You’ll gain access to the advanced TickTrader platform, hundreds of markets to choose from, and competitive trading fees. Good luck!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
