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Amazon at $2 Trillion: What’s Driving the Stock to Record Highs?Tripled profits, a bet on AI, and a strategy to take on rising rivals from the East have propelled the ecommerce and cloud computing giant to the lofty price tag. Innovation on Amazon’s Mind Amazon (ticker: AMZN ) hit $2 trillion in market value just before the year clocked out for the first half. In the final week of June, the Jeff Bezos-founded online retailer soared past the formidable milestone, becoming the fifth company to ever breathe the rarefied air beyond $2 trillion. What’s been driving Amazon stock to line up right after Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL ), Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ), Apple (ticker: AAPL ) and Microsoft (ticker: MSFT )? It’s a mix of fortunate and timely events, and all can be summed up with one word: innovation. Amazon raked in sky-high profits of $15 billion for the most recent quarter. The figure was up three times from the same quarter last year. More importantly, the company, now under the stewardship of Andy Jassy as chief exec, is pivoting more resources to meet the growing demand for artificial intelligence. Shifting Focus to Artificial Intelligence Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the firm’s cloud computing business and also the world’s biggest one. It’s largely the cash cow at Amazon with profit margins as wide as 38%. Now, it’s getting a boost from businesses looking to inject AI into their products and services. The fast-growing AI-focused unit is growing at a “$100 billion annual revenue run rate,” according to Jassy. For the quarter ended March 31, AWS sales rose 17% to $25 billion, beating forecasts for $24.5 billion and also coming ahead of the previous quarter’s 13% growth pace. It seems that the AI hype is sweeping across the Amazon halls and conference rooms. Generative AI got praised by Amazon’s chief financial officer Brian Olsavsky as “a multibillion-dollar revenue run rate business for us.” Looking for a meaningful edge doesn’t stop with artificial intelligence. Pitted Against Temu and Shein Rising ecommerce competition from the East is forcing the $2 trillion giant to embrace a new line of business — ultra-low-cost goods shipped directly from China. A new discount section is in the works for Amazon.com after smaller rivals Temu and Shein have threatened to slurp up a significant market share. The new section, according to reports, will be added to the homepage of the retailer’s app. It will be targeting American customers willing to wait nine to 11 days for goods shipped from China warehouses, as opposed to the regular one or two-day delivery time for goods delivered from within the US. Also, each item will get a price tag of no more than 20 bucks. Temu, owned by PDD Holdings, and China-founded Shein have flooded the internet with cheap stuff and massive discounts thanks to splurging billions of dollars in advertising campaigns. Amazon, a mainstay in the FAANG stocks list , is among the few companies to be of gargantuan size yet nimble enough to stay relevant in the changing landscape of its industry. Will the pivot to cheap goods succeed in stamping out the aggressive competition from China? Or will the corporate giant be outperformed by the brilliant maneuvering of low-caliber foreign retailers? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:AMZN
by TradingView
5
NIKE - Dead or a Cheap Opportunity? Nike has been on a rough patch recently & this past week didn't help as it saw it's worst day in over 20 years. Now the question is, is Nike dead in the water or has price gotten so cheap that it makes for a good investment opportunity? Now, I'm not here to tell you that you should or shouldn't buy Nike, rather if you were considering it, where you may want to look to do so at & what you need to be aware of if you do. I'd love for you guys to continue the discussion by sharing your opinions below! And as always I wish you a fantastic week of trading and investing. Akil
NYSE:NKELong
by Akil_Stokes
48
Price Action Fluency As A Second LanguageThis is the most important educational video I have shared. Reading price action is akin to acquiring a second or foreign language. Just as fluency in a new language provides fluency and articulation, mastering price action offers traders a nuanced understanding of market dynamics. One would not expect to learn a new language in a short amount of time. It often takes years while keeping up the practice for the rest of ones life. Price action is no different. There are literally hundreds of subtleties revealing their secrets to the ones who 𓁼 . Indicators obstructing the view of plain truth is most often a useless distraction. It's not just about recognizing patterns; it's about developing a foundational understanding that allows for intuitive and informed trading decisions. Building this skill set enables traders to interpret market 'sentiments' and react more adeptly to volatility, much like a fluent speaker picks up on subtle nuances in conversation. Thus, learning to 'speak' the language of price action is essential for anyone serious about trading, as it equips them with the tools to navigate and succeed in the complex world of financial markets.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by EsotericTrading
34
How to Read the MACD Indicator and Use It in Your TradingTechnical analysis is a vast field with thousands of indicators, which may be confusing to those among us who are just starting out. In this Idea, we look at one of the most popular indicators and also one of the easiest ones to fire up and start using from Day 1. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) MACD is arguably the most widely used indicator that can get slapped on virtually every chart out there. The indicator’s full name is Moving Average Convergence Divergence, but you don’t need to remember that. If you need to take away one thing, it’s this: MACD is easy to read. Here’s how to do it. Technical Side of Things Add the MACD in your chart of choice — any chart, any time frame. You’ll see three default numbers used to set it up — 12, 26, 9. The 12 is the moving average of the previous 12 bars (also called faster moving average). The 26 is the moving average of the previous 26 bars (also called slower moving average). The 9 is the moving average of the difference between the two averages in play. Next, you see that there are two lines that move up and down and cross each other occasionally. The two lines are: The MACD line: the difference between the two moving averages and the “faster line”. The Signal line: the moving average of the MACD line and the “slower line”. Because the two lines measure price changes at different speeds, the faster one (MACD) will always run ahead and react before the slower one (Signal) catches up. How to Trade with MACD If all that sounds a bit complex, here’s the gist of it: Faster line leads, slower line follows. Faster line crosses slower line to the downside — a downward trend may be forming. Faster line crosses slower line to the upside — an upward trend may be forming. Technically, whenever a new trend is shaping up, the slower line should confirm it by following the faster line. And that happens when the two cross over. The way to potentially spot new trading opportunities is to look for the crossover. This, in a nutshell, is how to read the MACD indicator and use it to help you become a more profitable trader. There's a whole plethora of MACD examples in action — dive right in ! Let us know your thoughts and experience with the MACD in the comments below!
Education
by TradingView
7
EBS Base Breakout SetupHey everybody got my camera working for this trade idea. Here we have the ebs stock setting up for a breakout in an uptrend and we're hoping for a bullish continuation here. I describe my entry points my stop loss and my profit target one and the logic behind them and how to position your share count so you can manage your risk and prepare to lose as much or as little money that you want if the trade goes against you every decision in this trade has meaning and logic to it that pertains to the particular stock and the setup therefore you know why you are doing everything that you're doing when trading. Let me know if you have any questions or if this is new to you or if you need help setting it up or calculating how much money you should win or lose. The only issue with this stock is that it's not in the technology sector and it's not in the communication sector so it is not in the most high performing sector right now although the healthcare sector is performing pretty decently with financials as well.
NYSE:EBSEducation
by PappyTrading
4
Trade the TREND with 4 Trend Indicators4 Trend Indicators you can use to identify the current MACRO Trend. It's always important to know where your market is currently trading. Is it bullish, bearish, or range trading? If you have established the trend, you can trade with the trend instead of against it. Trading against the trend ( for example shorting during a bullish cycle ) adds unnecessary risk to an already risky trade (leverage). 1) Bollinger Bands 2) Logarithmic View 3) Super Trend 4) Moving Averages + RSI Let me know how YOU determine the macro trend! _________________________ BINANCE:DOGEUSDT MEXC:ETHUSDT KRAKEN:BTCUSD COINBASE:SOLUSD
Education
by CryptoCheck-
4
Is It Possible to Define the Probability of an Effective Trade?Is It Possible to Define the Probability of an Effective Trade? Traders are constantly trying to figure out the secret of effective trading. However, the inherent unpredictability of markets minimises the ability to accurately determine the probability of an effective trade. This FXOpen article focuses on the many variables that contribute to the dynamism and uncertainty of financial markets. Let’s consider why it is impossible to estimate the chance of lucky trade and what can be done instead. Why Is Defining Trading Outcomes Difficult? Trading involves a multitude of variables, which make it challenging to define the probability of an effective trade. Economic indicators, earnings reports, news releases, and geopolitical events all contribute to trading results. Economic indicators that reflect the state of the economy are subject to revisions and unexpected changes. Geopolitical events, from political tensions to trade agreements, can quickly change the market trajectory. Market sentiment, influenced by news, social media, and psychological factors, introduces a human element that cannot be accurately quantified. That’s why it’s a challenge to define probability in trading. Factors Influencing Trading Outcomes Trading the odds is not an effective approach. This implies an attempt to determine market movements intuitively and believing in the best. However, by relying solely on the illusion of predicting the odds, traders gain a false sense of security and overlook other influential factors. Still, there are several factors that surely influence the results of trading, including market conditions, risk management, and trader psychology. For instance, volatility and liquidity significantly impact trading. Then, building a risk management strategy and using stop-loss orders may help mitigate potential losses. Lastly, understanding trader psychology, including emotional regulation and discipline, plays a vital role in making objective and consistent decisions. The Role of Market Analysis It’s unlikely that someone will be able to fully explain how lucky trades work. But it’s definitely possible to identify how trades built on analysis work and why they’re smarter. Market analysis, such as technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, provides insights into market movements. Technical analysis examines historical price patterns and indicators, while fundamental analysis delves into economic factors. Sentiment analysis gauges the mood of market participants through various indicators, such as social media trends. Trades based on an understanding of charts, fundamentals, and reasons for price movements are much more reliable and more likely to be effective than guessing. However, traders should not forget about the complexity of defining trading outcomes. Even using advanced indicators, one cannot analyse future price movements with 100% precision. Markets are not static entities, and adaptability and risk management are key. Risk-Reward Ratio and Win Rate The risk-reward ratio is a critical tool for improving trading performance. The R/R ratio is a mathematical calculation used to measure the expected gains for every unit of risk undertaken. However, it’s important to note that this is a risk management tool rather than a measure of probability. Traders often fall into the trap of solely focusing on historical high win rates, believing this guarantees success in the future. However, the efficacy of a trade doesn’t solely hinge on the win rate. A high win rate may be effective when paired with favourable risk-reward ratios, potentially creating a sustainable trading strategy. Historical Performance Historical performance analysis involves scrutinising past market data, price movements, and trading patterns to identify trends, correlations, and potential signals. Traders use this analysis to make informed decisions about future market movements based on the belief that historical patterns can repeat themselves. Analysing historical performance gives traders a valuable perspective on potential future movements. Chart patterns, support and resistance levels, and key technical indicators become tools for analysing market behaviour based on past events. However, retrieving information from past market behaviour comes with limitations. Relying on historical data without considering current market dynamics may lead to misguided conclusions. Additionally, the occurrence of black swan events can disrupt established patterns. The Influence of Trader Skill Trader skill — a combination of experience and knowledge — plays a key role in overcoming uncertainty in trading. Experienced traders can interpret market signals with higher precision. Through exposure to diverse market conditions, traders develop a nuanced understanding of when to adhere to strategies and when to adapt. However, even the most seasoned traders are not immune to market unpredictability. While trader skill empowers individuals to make informed decisions, it does not ensure infallibility. Final Thoughts Ultimately, no one can determine the lucky trade chance. But while there are no guarantees, managing risk and maintaining a long-term perspective are crucial elements for traders. Analysing charts that can be found on the TickTrader trading platform, relying on indicators, adaptation, and getting as much practice as possible may improve performance in the market. In any case, one should not rely on luck alone. To continue gaining experience, you can open an FXOpen account and enjoy the exciting trading conditions available in the market. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
6
Why you need to have rules in your trading careerHello, The importance of rules cannot be underestimated in any business. This must not be different in trading/investing since it must be viewed at all times as a business. Below are my rules as a wave trader. Wave trading is a trading strategy that combines technical analysis with Elliott Wave Theory to identify and predict future market movements. This approach involves analyzing market price patterns to understand the cyclical nature of market trends and capitalize on these patterns for trading opportunities. Below is an example of how markets move in waves Rules are very important (Our trading rules) Identify Impulse & Correction The first step in trading is to identify the impulse and correction phases in the market. An impulse phase is characterized by strong, directional price movement, indicating a clear trend. Corrections, on the other hand, are smaller, counter-trend movements that typically follow an impulse. By recognizing these phases, you can better understand the market's structure and prepare for potential trading opportunities. Below is an example of impulses & corrections identified Identify the Pattern Formations Once you have identified the impulse and correction, the next step is to look for specific pattern formations. These patterns, such as head and shoulders, double tops, or triangles, provide clues about future price movements. Understanding and recognizing these formations can significantly enhance your ability to predict market direction and make informed trading decisions. Below are patterns identified that can be tradeable Most of these patterns can nowadays be identified for you using Tradingview under indicators, metrics & strategies. Identify Entry Points After identifying the patterns, the next crucial step is to pinpoint entry points. This involves determining the optimal moment to enter a trade based on your analysis of the market. Entry points should be chosen carefully to maximize potential gains while minimizing risk. Look for confirmations, such as breakouts from patterns or specific technical indicators, to ensure a higher probability of success. Below is an example with a risk free entry We shall be looking in another post on different types of entries. Look for Targets Setting targets is essential for effective trading. Targets help you establish your profit goals for each trade and ensure that you remain disciplined in your approach. These targets can be based on various factors, such as previous support and resistance levels, Fibonacci extensions, or measured moves from the identified patterns. Clear targets allow you to exit trades strategically and lock in profits. Below is our clear target for the entry we made with a clear stop loss as well Look for Exits in Case the Trade Doesn't Go Your Way Not all trades will go as planned, so it's vital to have exit strategies in place for unfavorable scenarios. This involves setting stop-loss levels to limit potential losses and protect your capital. By defining these exits beforehand, you can remove emotional decision-making from your trading process and adhere to a systematic approach, ensuring long-term success and sustainability in your trading business. I trust that these rules can help you in your trading journey. You can think of having them written somewhere. That way you can look at them & follow them for each trade you make. All the best
NYSE:BACEducation
by thesharkke
10
GOLDTrend Analysis Downward Trend Line: There is a red downward trend line indicating that gold has been in a downtrend. This line acts as a resistance level. Support Zone: There is a green support zone around the $2,318.00 level. This indicates that there is buying interest around this price, and it has historically acted as a support level. Resistance Levels First Resistance: Around $2,325.66. Second Resistance: Around $2,332.00. These resistance levels indicate where selling pressure has previously been strong enough to halt upward price movement. Fair Value Gap (FVG) A Fair Value Gap is highlighted in a beige rectangle from approximately $2,340.00 to $2,354.60. This gap suggests an area where the price might move quickly if it enters this zone, potentially due to a lack of liquidity or previous rapid price movement. Price Action Current Price: As of the latest data on the chart, gold is trading at $2,319.26. Recent Movement: The price recently bounced off the support zone but faced resistance near $2,332.00, aligning with the downward trend line. Potential Scenarios Bullish Scenario: If the price can break above the resistance at $2,325.66 and subsequently the downward trend line, it may target the next resistance level at $2,332.00. A break above this level could lead to a move towards the Fair Value Gap, potentially reaching the upper boundary around $2,354.60. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to hold the support level at $2,318.00, it might move lower, with the next significant support level potentially being around $2,312.00. Further bearish movement could target levels below $2,310.00. Key Levels to Watch Support: $2,318.00, $2,312.00. Resistance: $2,325.66, $2,332.00, $2,354.60 (FVG zone).
TVC:GOLDLong
by Tdawly_Official
58
Ichimoku Watch: Nvidia Eyeing Ichimoku Cloud Support In three successive days of selling, triggered after a bearish outside reversal formed on Thursday last week from all-time highs of $140.76, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) has shed approximately -15.0% from the peak. The company’s market value dropped more than US$500 billion to US$2.91 trillion, consequently pulling the chipmaker back to third place after briefly becoming the most valuable company in the world and surpassing Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) and Apple (ticker: AAPL). Behind the sell-off is a combination of the CEO, Jensen Huang, selling almost US$100 million worth of shares a handful of days before (and after) it became the world’s most valuable company, along with worries about the company’s effect on the broader stock market indexes, and profit-taking after what has been a meteoric rise. Ichimoku Cloud Support As can be seen from Nvidia's daily chart, the stock’s recent movement has easily crossed below the Conversion Line (blue at $129.40) and is fast approaching the Base Line (red at $116.28), which could deliver support. However, should further downside develop, the Ichimoku Cloud support (made up of the Leading Span A at $122.95 and the Leading Span B at $108.23) could be seen as a logical downside target for sellers in this market at the moment. You will also see that the chart offers support at $96.77 around the Ichimoku support zone. Price Direction? While it is unlikely that the party is over for Nvidia, the current correction will likely be viewed as an opportunity to get in at cheaper prices. Dip buyers, therefore, may seek suitable support levels to enter this market long. The combination of support just below $100.00 at $96.77 and the Ichimoku Cloud support area could be worthy of the watchlist.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by FPMarkets
9
Nvidia - Massive rejection soon!NASDAQ:NVDA is clearly overextended after the +1.000% rally and ready for a correction. Trees simply do not grow to the sky. And neither do stocks, especially Nvidia. I know that a lot of people are calling price targets of $250 and beyond, but we still have to respect gravity and the nature of fear and greed. Nvidia is simply overextended a retesting a 6 year resistance trendline. I do expect a correction between -20% and -30%, but also -60% is definitely possible. Levels to watch: $120, $50 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
50
GBPJPY - BIG BULLISH CONTINUATION OPPORTUNITY Here's a big potential bullish trend continuation opportunity on the GBPJPY using structure and price action. In this video I walk you through the 4-step I.P.D.E. process used to set up the trading idea & talk about different ways to both get in & out of the trade. We'll probably revisit this opportunity as it develops so make sure you watch this space. If you have any questions or comments about the setup (or anything else) please leave it in the comment section below as I do read each and every one. I wish you a great week in the markets - Akil
Long
by Akil_Stokes
26
TSLA : its now or never!TSLA is coiling to make a large directional move. The Question is...up or down? With August appraoching quickly, this could be a key pivotal shift in TSLA business model Once they announce their ROBO - TAXI, this could be a huge winning success for the company and stock . A ROBO - TAXI could be a mega disruption for many sectors and companies. I think theres a strong chance that investors are going to start bidding up this name ahead of that 1st week of August in anticipation of the massive launch. Keep in mind with every new launch comes hiccups and capital expenditures so its not always smooth sailing. Lets face it though...no other company has attempted this yet and if anyone can have success it would be Elon. I also think now that Elons pay package has been approved, he really is incentivized to grow this business. Will his Optimus Robot be the new taxi, uber or Lyft drivers?
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Trading-Capital
12
Premium & Discount Price Delivery in Institutional TradingGreetings Traders! In today's educational video, we will delve into the concepts of premium and discount price delivery. The objective is to provide you with a comprehensive understanding of institutional-level market mechanics. Before we proceed, it is crucial to define what we mean by "institutional level" and "smart money," as these terms are often misunderstood. We will also address the common misconceptions about who the liquidity providers are in the market. By grasping these foundational concepts, you will gain a new perspective on the market, realizing that its movements are not random but calculated and precise, orchestrated by well-informed entities often referred to as smart money. If you have any questions, please leave them in the comment section below. Best Regards, The_Architect
Education
by The_Archi-tect
10
Is USD/JPY Trade of Decade? US Dollar Nears 34-Year High Again.If you’re a ‘90s baby, the yen is the weakest you’ve ever seen it. Putting it back with the cool guys in forex town isn’t going to be easy. In this Idea, we discover why. Yen Languishes in 34-Year Lows The Japanese yen is trading at a 34-year low against the stronger US dollar. This means that the volatile USD/JPY pair is flying high. Very high. To many, this is the opportunity of a lifetime — pop a short, load up on the leverage and go for the jugular (to use Soros slang ). Only that it’s not as easy as it looks. So not-easy that there’s even a term for that. It’s called “widow maker trade” and it describes those unfortunate souls who dare to bet against the Bank of Japan in hopes of anticipating the right direction. It’s so difficult to predict the path of Japan’s interest rates that many have seen their fortunes wiped out in trying to do so. So why’s the yen so badly hurt? Until recently, Japan’s central bank was the only one in the world to flaunt negative interest rates. It was holding on to an easy-money regime to stimulate economic growth — low to negative rates encourage businesses and consumers to borrow cheap money and spend it on whatever they want. Biggest Loser on Forex Board But this loose money policy has a downside — it makes the local currency highly unattractive. The Japanese yen is the biggest loser among the major currencies on the forex board so far in 2024. It’s down more than 13% against the dollar this year. Against that backdrop, in March, the Bank of Japan abandoned its negative rate regime and hiked interest rates for the first time since 2007. The shift provided little relief to the yen. The USD/JPY this week blasted beyond ¥159 and extended its winning streak to seven days in a row. But bulls’ efforts to carry the exchange rate above the ¥160 milestone might meet an archnemesis. Japanese officials have been monitoring the speculative moves around the yen and have said many times they’re ready to intervene by buying boatloads of it. Traders, however, have already seen this play out. And they've seen the aftermath, too. A Failed InterYention In late April, the Japanese yen tumbled beyond the key ¥160 level to the dollar, hitting ¥160.20 — a low last seen in 1990. Japan then decided to lean against the skyrocketing dollar and sank as much as $60 billion going long the yen and shorting the dollar. Briefly, the yen rose about 5% before bargain-hungry traders were back for more. Moral of the story? The downturn of the yen is predictable and until the Bank of Japan introduces a more aggressive policy to buck the trend, it may remain vulnerable to attacks. More of the Same? Meanwhile, bullish traders are excited to try their hand at shooting the dollar-yen pair to a fresh 34-year high. It must be noted, however, that the exchange rate is overstretched and overbought. This skews the risk-reward ratio and makes the upside look fairly limited, at least in the short term. Or does it? Zoom out, and you’ll see the yen was trading at ¥300 to the dollar back in the ‘70s. And that’s not something Japan wants to see now. A cheap yen is generally good for exports but it makes imports a lot more expensive. And that’s where the Asian economy is getting its technology, energy, cars, and many foods from. Japanese officials, namely the Ministry of Finance, remain tight-lipped about any potential intervention. What’s more, the Bank of Japan joins the silence with no forward-looking guidance on future interest rate hikes. And all this means one thing — yen volatility is bound to continue as traders engage in some extra spicy speculation fundamental price discovery. Long or Short? If you’re in the trade, which side are you on? Are you long the dollar-yen or short it? Let us know in the comments below!
by TradingView
11
43 lessons about forex trading at 43 that I wish I’d known at 23I turned 43 last week. I’ve been working for global brokerages and trading for 16 years. Here’s 43 things I wish I knew back then when I first started trading: 1. Start with your objectives first. I once asked a hedge fund manager what his advice for new traders is, and he said ‘get your objectives clear first.’ Set your goals first, and then create a plan to achieve them.’ 2. Risk/reward is everything. As a trader, your job is to place trades with an asymmetrical risk/reward profile – i.e. trades where you can make more than you can lose. That’s what good trading is all about. 3. You are a risk manager first, and a trader second. Your top priority as a trader is to protect your trading capital. Then, secondly, it is to make money. Not the other way around. 4. Cut your losses short and let your profits run. After working in brokerages for 16 years, if I know one thing about retail traders, it is they let their losses run and take their profits too quickly. Don’t be like them. 5. Be properly capitalised. The main reason I’ve seen traders lose is they have too small accounts and use too much leverage. Keep your risks small compared to the size of your account. 6. Use a rules-based approach to trading. Write a plan that contains rules for every decision you need to make as a trader…and then follow it. 7. Be clear and specific. Be clear about your goals, your objectives for each trade, and when you will enter and exit the market. If you are not clear, then keep planning until you are. 8. Mistakes kill trading systems. Errors – for example, not following your rules (or even worse, trading without rules) can make the difference between hitting your goals, or having a losing month. 9. Trade your best idea. Keep it simple and focus on your best idea at the time. Don’t trade too many strategies or systems all at one time. 10. Trade the correct strategy for the market type. Sell in bear markets, buy in bull markets. Range trade or stay out of sideways markets. If the market forms a tight range, trade the breakout. Pick the right approach for the current market conditions. 11. You will not win all the time… and that’s ok. Even the best traders have losing weeks, months and years. Go easy on yourself when things are not working out. Keep trying to improve. 12. Trade less, not more. I made 3% a month over 3 years, taking one trade a day. You don’t need to trade often to hit your objectives. 13. You only need one good trade. One good trade a week or month is all you need to achieve your objectives. 14. You achieve your goals through position-sizing. Controlling the size of your position is more important than getting the trade direction correct. 15. It’s not how often you win, but how much you make when you do. It does not matter if you take lots of small losses, as long as you make large gains when you win. 16. Play the probabilities, not what you think is going to happen. Don’t try to ‘make a trade work’ by taking profit early or not taking a trade, rather trust in the probabilities and your plan. 17. Time of day matters. The forex markets often change direction when the Tokyo, London and New York markets open. Be prepared. 18. Don’t trade on Monday mornings. Funny things happen on Monday mornings when most traders are asleep and the markets are illiquid. It’s best to avoid trading at this time...oh and stay away from New York Friday afternoon too. 19. Keep your entries simple…Don’t over-complicate your entries. A simple breakout or pull-back during a trend will work. Keep your entries simple so you can act decisively. 20. …and your exits complex. Many things happen after you enter a trade, so you need a toolbox of exit strategies. 21. Take some profit when the market gets overbought or oversold. I used to hold on to every trade, hoping it would be a massive winner, only to see it reverse and my profit disappear. Now, I’m happy to take profit as soon as the market signals it’s about to reverse. 22. Trail your stop-loss, but not too close. A trailing stop will allow you to keep your gains. Don’t put it so tight that it will knock you out of the big winners. 23. Move your stop to breakeven, but not too early. Having a trade that you’ve made risk-free by moving the stop loss point is a great feeling. But don’t do it so early that you get whipsawed. 24. News events will be the greatest source of profits and losses . Pay close attention to news events, as they have the power to wipe out your hard-earned gains or generate windfall profits - in the blink of an eye. 25. Record your trades. Keep track of all the trades you make so you can review your performance and… 26. Do more of what works, and less of what doesn't. Doing this over and over again is the secret to success. 27. Know your macros. I’m not talking about calorie-counting. Learning macro analysis of the forex markets will prove valuable in the long run as you will understand what is behind the movements on the charts. 28. Scale-in to high-conviction trades. If you have a high-conviction winner, backed by the fundamentals, then maximise it by adding to the trade as it goes your way. 29. Practice mental rehearsal. Like an elite athlete before their big event, practice executing your trades perfectly in your mind's eye. And take deep breaths while you’re rehearsing. 30. Trading is a game. View trading as a game, where you make the rules and your profits are your winning score. 31. Develop personal discipline. The key to consistent trading is developing the discipline to trade your tested rules, even when you have a series of losses. 32. Keep your thinking flexible. Don’t hold onto a view too tightly, and be prepared to do a u-turn and go the other way. 33. Trade for yourself, not what others will think of you. Do you for you. Not for what others will think of you, or because of what you’ve seen another trader do on social media. 34. Know yourself, before you trust others. Don’t give your money to someone else to trade, until you at least understand how to manage risk yourself. Then you can tell if they are any good at it. 35. Your broker is (probably) not your enemy… in my 16 years of experience, major regulated brokers are not trading against you. They want you to have a good trading experience. 36. …but they are not your mate. They are not always going to call you if you lose money to assist you. That’s not their priority. 37. Costs add up. Costs compound negatively, just like returns compound positively. Keep your transaction costs and fees as low as you can. 38. There is always a marketmaker. If your broker is not the marketmaker, then their liquidity provider is. In the forex market, there is always a marketmaker somewhere down the line. 39. Grind it out. Show up each day, follow your processes, and the results will come. Get used to the grind, and don’t chase the fast win. 40. Don’t tie your self-worth to the markets. The markets are a fickle, challenging beast and your success as a trader is not something to base your personal self-esteem on. 41. Spend your time being happy. Good traders are relaxed and happy. Remain calm and have a positive expectation. 42. Fight the good fight. Author Paulho Coelho said: “The Good Fight is the one that we fight in the name of our dreams.” If you are passionate about trading, keep up the fight. Keep trading, learning and growing and you’ll get there. 43. Enjoy the journey. Trading is a journey through the Himalayas. The highs are high and the lows are lows. The key is to enjoy every step. Thanks for listening. Sam
Education
by Sam_Eder
43
RSI Indicator LIES! Untold Truth About RSI! The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a classic technical indicator that is applied to identify the overbought and oversold states of the market. While the RSI looks simple to use, there is one important element in it that many traders forget about: it's a lagging indicator. This means it reacts to past price movements rather than predicting future ones. This inherent lag can sometimes mislead traders, particularly when the markets are volatile or trade in a strong bullish/bearish trend. In this article, we will discuss the situations when RSI indicator will lie to you. We will go through the instances when the indicator should not be relied and not used on, and I will explain to you the best strategy to apply RSI. Relative Strength Index analyzes the price movements over a specific time period and displays a score between 0 and 100. Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition. By itself, the overbought and overbought conditions give poor signals, simply because the market may remain in these conditions for a substantial period of time. Take a look at a price action on GBPCHF. After the indicator showed the oversold condition, the pair dropped 150 pips lower before the reversal initiated. So as an extra confirmation , traders prefer to look for RSI divergence - the situation when the price action and indicator move in the opposite direction. Above is the example of RSI divergence: Crude Oil formed a sequence of higher highs, while the indicator formed a higher high with a consequent lower high. That confirmed the overbought state of the market, and a bearish reversal followed. However, only few knows that even a divergence will provide accurate signals only in some particular instances. When you identified RSI divergence, make sure that it happened after a test of an important key level. Historical structures increase the probability that the RSI divergence will accurately indicate the reversal. Above is the example how RSI divergence gave a false signal on USDCAD. However, the divergence that followed after a test of a key level, gave a strong bearish signal. There are much better situations when RSI can be applied, but we will discuss later on, for now, the main conclusion is that RSI Divergence beyond key levels most of the time will provide low accuracy signals. But there is one particular case, when RSI divergence will give the worst, the most terrible signal. In very rare situations, the market may trade in a strong bullish trend, in the uncharted territory, where there are no historical price levels. In such cases, RSI bullish divergence will constantly lie , making retail traders short constantly and lose their money. Here is what happens with Gold on a daily. The market is trading in the uncharted territory, updated the All-Time Highs daily. Even though there is a clear overbought state and a divergence, the market keeps growing. Only few knows, however, that even though RSI is considered to be a reversal, counter trend indicator, it can be applied for trend following trading. On a daily time frame, after the price sets a new high, wait for a pullback to a key horizontal support. Your bullish signal, will be a bearish divergence on an hourly time frame. Here is how the price retested a support based on a previous ATH on Gold. After it approached a broken structure, we see a confirmed bearish divergence. That gives a perfect trend-following signal to buy the market. A strong bullish rally followed then. RSI indicator is a very powerful tool, that many traders apply incorrectly. When the market is trading in a strong trend, this indicator can be perfectly applied for following the trend, not going against that. I hope that the cases that I described will help you not lose money, trading with Relative Strength Index. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
34
Economic Calendar: Top Market Events You Should Watch Out forMarkets tend to get especially volatile whenever there’s an economic report or some data dump that takes investors by surprise. That’s why we’re spinning up this Idea where we highlight all the major market-moving events you should watch out for when you do your trading. Today, we look at the Economic Calendar . 🏦 Central Bank Meetings and Announcements • Federal Reserve (Fed) Meetings The US Federal Reserve holds Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings roughly every six weeks,or ( eight times a year ), to talk about monetary policy, including interest rates. Setting interest rates is arguably the most significant event with long-lasting consequences for markets. Each of these meeting takes two days and wraps up with a speech by the gentleman who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon” — Fed boss Jay Powell. • European Central Bank (ECB) Meetings Similar to the Fed, the ECB holds regular meetings to decide on monetary policy and borrowing costs for the Eurozone. ECB officials’ decisions sway financial markets, especially those based in the old continent. Indexes such as the Stoxx 600 Europe (ticker: SXXP ) and the European currency tend to fluctuate wildly during ECB events. • Bank of England (BoE) Meetings The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) frequently meets to discuss and set interest rates and other monetary matters. Decisions made by BoE policymakers mainly affect the UK corner of the financial markets. That means elevated volatility in the British pound sterling and the broad-based UK index, the FTSE 100, among other UK-based trading instruments . • Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meetings The BoJ holds policy meetings to decide on interest rates and monetary stimulus, among other central-bank topics. Until recently, the Japanese central bank was the only one to sport a negative interest rate regime . 📝 Economic Data Releases • Nonfarm Payrolls In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation Summary on the first Friday of every month. The data package includes the non-farm payroll print , which tracks how many new hires joined the workforce, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. • Consumer Price Index (CPI) Monthly CPI measures the rate of inflation at the consumer level. The reading is closely monitored by the Fed in order to gauge the temperature of the economy. A reading too hot indicates an expanding economy, and vice versa. • Producer Price Index (PPI) Similar to CPI, PPI measures inflation at the wholesale level and can provide signals about inflation trends. • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Quarterly GDP churns out a comprehensive measure of a country's economic activity and growth. • Retail Sales Monthly retail sales indicate consumer spending patterns, which are a critical component of economic activity. The data shows whether consumers pulled back from spending or splurged like there’s no tomorrow. • Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) PMI reports for manufacturing and services sectors lay out insights into business activity and economic health. 🏢 Corporate Earnings Reports Publicly traded companies around the world release earnings reports every quarter. The hottest ones are America’s corporate giants, such as tech stocks , banking stocks , and more. The quarterly earnings figures include financial performance for the most recent three months and forward-looking guidance, which comprises earnings and revenue expectations. 🌐 Geopolitical Events Political developments, such as Presidential elections, and geopolitical tensions can have immediate and significant impacts on financial markets. These events are less predictable but are closely monitored by market participants and can quickly fuel volatility across asset classes, prompting investors to shuffle their portfolio holdings. Final Considerations Pay attention to these reports, events, and economic data and you’ll get to understand what moves markets. Anytime you witness a sharp reaction in gold ( XAU/USD ) or a quick reversal in the US dollar ( DXY ), it’s likely that the underlying factor is an economic report you didn’t know about. If you do track them — which one is your favorite market report or economic news release? Let us know in the comments below!
Education
by TradingView
3
Elliott Wave Expects Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to Continue HigherShort Term Elliott Wave in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) suggests it shows a bullish sequence from 4.20.2024 low favoring more upside. Up from 4.20.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 461.5 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 443.06. The ETF has extended higher in wave 3. Internal subdivision of wave 3 is unfolding as a nesting impulsive structure. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 455.58 and wave (ii) ended at 447.9. Wave (iii) higher ended at 465.55 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 460.54. Last leg wave (v) ended at 465.74 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 461.5 and the ETF has extended higher. Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 465.19 and wave ii dips ended at 462.03. Then it rallied higher in wave iii towards 478.28 and wave iv pullback ended at 473.80. Last leg wave v ended at 478.95 which completed wave (i) in higher degree. The ETF then pullback in wave (ii) towards 474.42. Near term, as far as it stays above 461.51, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
14
Four Factors Driving Gold Prices Relative to Silver2600 years ago, the Anatolian Kingdom of Lydia minted the world’s first gold and silver coins. In doing so, the Lydian King Alyattes and his successor Croesus introduced the world’s first exchange rate: the gold-silver cross. Like any cross rate, the amount of silver that can be purchased with an ounce of gold is driven by both demand and supply-side factors, and the cross rate is anything other than stable. Sadly, we don’t have the time series of the gold-silver ratio dating back to ancient times, but we do have data going back to the launch of gold futures on December 31, 1974. Since the mid-1970s, one ounce of gold bought anywhere from 17 ounces to as many as 123 ounces of silver (Figure 1). Figure 1: The amount of silver an ounce of gold can buy has been highly variable In addition to the impact of monetary policy, which we have covered here, the gold-silver ratio appears to be governed by four other factors: Relative volatility and the silver beta Fabrication demand and technological change Gold’s use as a monetary asset Supply-side dynamics Relative volatility and beta To borrow an expression from the equity markets, silver is the high-beta version of gold. First, silver and gold prices usually have a strong positive correlation. Since 2004 the one-year rolling correlation of their daily price moves has hovered around +0.8 (Figure 2). Second, silver is more volatile than gold. As such, when gold prices move up, silver tends to move up more, thereby lowering the gold-silver price ratio. By contrast, during bear markets, the gold-silver ratio tends to rise. Figure 2: The correlation of gold and silver price changes has hugged +0.8 since 2004. For example, when gold and silver prices peaked in September 2011, one ounce of gold bought fewer than 32 ounces of silver (Figure 3). In the ensuing bear market, the ratio rose to as high as 124 ounces of silver per ounce of gold. The ratio snapped back to 64 in 2020 as gold and silver rallied early in the pandemic. In 2024, as both metals have rallied, silver has outperformed, rising 23% in the first five months of the year compared to 12% for the yellow metal. Figure 3: Positive correlation plus much higher volatility give silver a high beta to gold Fabrication Demand and the Impact of Technological Change What is curious is that while gold and silver have rallied thus far in 2024, gold broke to new record highs of nearly $2,500 per ounce whereas silver prices remain 40% below their twin 1980 and 2011 peaks despite having outperformed gold since 2020 (Figure 4). The reason may lie in technological advances. Figure 4: Gold has hit records in 2024 while silver is still 40% below its 1980 and 2011 record highs Even before the Lydians minted the first gold and silver coins around 600 BCE, both metals had been used to make jewellery: silver since around 2500 BCE and gold since 4500 BCE. Some things don’t change. Even today, the primary use of both metals is to make jewellery. Yet, thus far this century, silver has been buffeted by two sets of technological developments: the digital revolution and the energy transition. Both have impacted the relative gold-silver ratio. In 1999, photography used 267.7 million troy ounces of silver which accounted for 36.6% of that year’s total silver supply. By 2023 photography used only 23.2 million ounces of silver or about 2.3% of 2023’s total supply due to the rise of digital photography. Meanwhile, silver’s use in electronics and batteries grew from 90 million ounces to 227.4 million ounces or from 12.3% to 22.7% of silver’s total annual supply, partially offsetting the decline in traditional photography, which may partially explain why silver has struggled to hit new highs in recent years even as gold has set records. The good news for silver, however, is that it is finding new use in the energy transition. Over the past few years silver has seen strong growth coming from solar panels, which accounted for 20% of 2023 silver demand, up from essentially nothing in 1999 (Figure 5). Solar panels may explain in part why silver has recovered relative to gold since 2020. Figure 5: Battery and solar panel demand have grown as photography demand has shrunk If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By contrast, gold fabrication demand has shown itself to be immune from recent technological developments and is still overwhelmingly dominated by jewellery demand, with electronics, dental and other uses absorbing just 17% of annual gold mining supply (Figure 6). The differences in silver and gold fabrication demand underscores that gold is considered the purer of the two precious metals. Figure 6: Gold fabrication demand has remained little changed Gold and global monetary policy Indeed, central banks around the world treat gold as money while they largely ignore silver (Figure 7). They hold a combined 36,700 metric tons of gold, the equivalent of 1.2 billion troy ounces or 13 years of global mining output. Moreover, central banks have been net buyers of gold every year since the global financial crisis. Figure 7: Central banks have been net buyers of gold since the global financial crisis Central bank buying of gold since 2009 contrasts sharply with their tendency to be net sellers from 1982 to 2007. Central banks’ accumulation of gold suggests that they want a hard asset to complement their foreign exchange reserves of dollars, euros, yen and other fiat currencies, a view that appears to have been reinforced by on-and-off quantitative easing since 2009 and increased use of financial sanctions. Central bank buying impacts gold prices directly, but only boosts silver prices indirectly via the gold market. The supply side of the equation Central bank gold buying reduces the amount of gold available to the public. Over the past decade, central bank buying has removed the equivalent of 8%-20% of new mining supply from the gold market each year (Figure 8) which may also explain why the gold-silver ratio rose significantly from 2011 to 2020 and why, even today, it remains at 2x its 2011 level. Figure 8: Net of central bank buying, gold supply has stagnated since 2003 Total gold supply net of official purchases has stagnated since 2003. Meanwhile, silver mining supply peaked in 2016 and gold mining supply peaked the next year (Figure 9). The fact that new supply is arriving on the market more slowly than in the past may be bullish for both gold and silver. Figure 9: Gold and silver respond negative to changes in each other’s mining supply. Our econometric analysis shows that gold and silver prices are negatively correlated with changes to one another’s mining supply. A 1% decrease in gold mining supply, on balance, boosted gold prices by 1.9% and silver by 3.0% from 1974 to 2023. A 1% decease in silver mining supply boosted the prices of the metals by 1.3%-1.6% (Figure 10). Secondary supply appears to respond to price rather than drive it. Higher prices incentivize more recycling, but recycled metal doesn’t appear to depress prices as it doesn’t bring any new metal onto the market. Figure 10: Secondary supply responds to price rather than drives it What connects the two markets is jewellery. Because gold is 70x as costlier than silver, when prices rise, demand for gold jewellery falls while silver’s jewellery demand is relatively unresponsive to price because it costs much less. Gold and silver can be seen as a sort of binary star system where the two stars orbit a common center of gravity or barycenter. Gold is the larger, more stable and more influential of the two, but it is by no means immune from silver’s pull. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CME_Group
4