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Leap Ahead with a Regression Breakout on Crude OilThe Leap Trading Competition: Your Chance to Shine TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Crude Oil (CL) and Micro Crude Oil (MCL), giving traders access to one of the most actively traded commodities in the world. Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration . This article breaks down a structured trade idea using linear regression breakouts, Fibonacci retracements, and UnFilled Orders (UFOs) to identify a long setup in Crude Oil Futures. Hopefully, this structured approach aligns with the competition’s requirements and gives traders a strong trade plan to consider. Best of luck to all participants. Spotting the Opportunity: A Regression Breakout in CL Futures Trend reversals often present strong trading opportunities. One way to detect these shifts is by analyzing linear regression channels—a statistical tool that identifies the general price trend over a set period. In this case, a 4-hour CL chart shows that price has violated the upper boundary of a downward-sloping regression channel, suggesting the potential start of an uptrend. When such a breakout aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and existing UnFilled Orders (UFOs), traders may gain a potential extra edge in executing a structured trade plan. The Trade Setup: Combining Fibonacci and a Regression Channel This trade plan incorporates multiple factors to define an entry, stop loss, and target: o Entry Zone: An entry or pullback to the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, between 74.60 and 73.14, provides a reasonable long entry. o Stop Loss: Placed below 73.14 to ensure a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. o Profit-Taking Strategy: First target at 76.05 (38.2% Fibonacci level) Second target at 77.86 (23.6% Fibonacci level) Final target at 78.71, aligning with a key UFO resistance level This approach locks in profits along the way while allowing traders to capitalize on an extended move toward the final resistance zone. Contract Specifications and Margin Considerations Understanding contract specifications and margin requirements is essential when trading futures. Below are the key details for CL and MCL: o Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Details Full contract specs: CL Contract Specifications – CME Group Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($10 per tick) Margin requirements vary based on market conditions and broker requirements. Currently set around $5,800. o Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Contract Details Full contract specs: MCL Contract Specifications – CME Group Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($1 per tick) Lower margin requirements for more flexible risk control. Currently set around $580. Choosing between CL and MCL depends on risk tolerance and account size. MCL provides more flexibility for smaller accounts, while CL offers higher liquidity and contract value. Execution and Market Conditions To maximize trade efficiency, conservative traders could wait for a proper price action into the entry zone and confirm the setup using momentum indicators and/or volume trends.   Key Considerations Before Entering Ensure price reaches the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone before executing the trade Look for confirmation signals such as increased volume, candlestick formations, or additional support zones Be patient—forcing a trade without confirmation increases risk exposure Final Thoughts This Crude Oil Futures trade setup integrates multiple confluences—a regression breakout, Fibonacci retracements, and UFO resistance—to create a structured trade plan with defined risk management. For traders participating in The Leap Trading Competition, this approach emphasizes disciplined execution, dynamic risk management, and a structured scaling-out strategy, all essential components for long-term success. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
9
Trump’s Trade War Risks Throwing Markets into Chaos. TARIFFic?Apparently, Trump has slapped Mexico, Canada and China with hefty tariffs. Now all these three are either already retaliating with their own levies on US goods or getting ready to do so. The complex interplay of back-and-forth tariffs risks turning friends into foes and driving up prices. All the while the end consumer is likely to cover the difference. President Donald Trump on Saturday actually went ahead and did what he wanted to do. He launched the game of tariffs. He hit Mexico, Canada and China with hefty import duties, threatening to throw the world’s trade into a spiral of ill intentions, retaliations and higher prices for your Stanley cups and iPhones. The looming destabilization is already coming from both ends — Canada swiftly imposed 25% levies on roughly $20 billion of US goods coming into the country on Tuesday. Another $85 billion worth of goods are getting the same treatment within the next three weeks. China, where nearly everything you get your hands on is made, said it will “take necessary countermeasures to defend its rights and interests.” Trump’s new order requires Canada and Mexico to pay 25% tariffs on imports to the US (with a partial carve out for Canada’s energy and oil exports — 10% levies apply there). The US President was gearing up for a 60% tariff rate on China while he was running for office but said he’s imposing a 10% tariff that will likely get higher in time. These three countries in 2023 collectively accounted for about 40% of all US imports. That year, the US imported about $3.85 trillion worth of goods. In November 2024, the US pulled in about $351 billion worth of stuff and then sold it to Americans. What are tariffs and who pays them? At the basic level, tariffs are a way for an economy to protect itself from foreign competition. Through tariffs, domestic businesses are somewhat shielded from outside interference and can snatch up a bigger portion of the local market. Tariffs are just taxes placed on products that are made overseas and then imported to the country. Here’s the kicker: the foreign companies that make these goods and then import them aren’t on the hook for paying the tariffs — American businesses are. Tech companies like Apple AAPL , which makes about 95% of its stuff in China, or Tesla TSLA , which makes half of its cars in China, will end up paying more for their products as they come into the US. Who’s collecting that import duty? The US government. What could happen when these tariffs get cracking? The US consumer will most likely cover the difference. Nearly every product will be affected — from cars to baby toys to the already expensive eggs (can egg prices get even higher?) Here’s an example: potash, the product that’s used by US farmers as fertilizer, just got 25% more expensive. That extra cost, paid by the farmers, is likely to trickle down to the end consumer so farmers could keep trucking and produce at the same rates. What could happen to the stock market? One thing is certain — the companies that don’t pass on the added cost to the consumer will see their corporate profits dwindle. But if they want to keep generating value for shareholders, they’ll need to pass it forward to the end user. With the first quarter now well under way, the next earnings season will be a sight to see. (Friendly reminder to keep an eye on the economic calendar for all corporate earnings and updates.) An analysis from Barclays estimates that all S&P 500 companies could see their profits shrink by 2.8% once the tariffs get in full flow. Perhaps a bigger, scarier fallout is possible. Inflation can perk up again. Inevitably, the higher costs across the border risk undoing what the Federal Reserve was doing to combat inflation. Goldman Sachs came out with the forecast that the looming tariffs could have an initial knock on effect on inflation to the tune of 0.7% to the upside. Gross domestic product could drop 0.4%. And most of all, there’s one thing investors fear the most. Rising inflation could bring back interest rate hikes. A revival in consumer prices might prompt the Federal Reserve to walk back its intentions of more interest rate cuts and lean against the economy by raising borrowing costs. There are early signs of this already. Fed chief Jay Powell last week said the central bank is in a wait-and-see phase as Trump’s policies unfurl. The scary tariffs already knocked the wind out of stocks and crypto. Monday morning saw one of its worst openings in years, especially for Ethereum ETHUSD . The second-largest coin fell as much as 27% from the get-go as the bullish sentiment was nowhere to be seen. Bitcoin BTCUSD also got a slap losing 6% in its first deals to settle near $91,000 before paring back some of the drop. And stock futures were looking at steep declines with Dow futures DJI shedding as much as 700 points ahead of the opening bell in New York. The only winner was the US dollar DXY , which stands to gain popularity in a high-tariff environment. Until now, the market has been overwhelmingly on Trump’s side. He stepped into the White House riding on the promises of a strong economy and booming business. But if he takes aim (even indirectly) at shareholders’ profits, he might end up losing the support of all those billionaire executives who worked hard to get him elected. What do you think? Is Trump acting in the best interest of America or is he driving markets into a ditch? Share your thoughts below!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
55
Investing in US Construction & Engineering: PWR vs FIX vs PRIM◉ Abstract The U.S. construction and engineering sector is experiencing a significant boom, driven by infrastructure investments, rapid urbanization, and the rise of renewable energy projects. Leading companies such as Quanta Services NYSE:PWR , Comfort Systems USA NYSE:FIX , and Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM are capitalizing on these trends, each demonstrating strong performance. Among them, PRIM stands out with exceptional financial health and attractive valuation metrics, positioning it as a compelling choice for investors. PWR and FIX are also performing well, benefiting from the sector's growth momentum. With substantial government spending and ongoing urbanization fueling demand, the sector presents promising opportunities for long-term investors. However, thorough research, clear investment goals, and effective risk management remain crucial to navigating this dynamic landscape successfully. ◉ Introduction The U.S. construction and engineering sector is a vital component of the nation's economy, driving infrastructure development, urbanization, and economic growth. It encompasses various activities, including residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure construction, as well as engineering services for design, planning, and project management. Recent trends shaping the sector include urbanization, sustainability, technological advancements, and government investments in infrastructure. ◉ Key Drivers of Growth 1. Infrastructure Investments: $1.2 trillion allocated for roads, bridges, railways, and clean energy infrastructure. 2. Renewable Energy: Funding boost for solar and wind farms driving demand for construction services. 3. Urbanization: Rapid urbanization fueling demand for residential and commercial construction. 4. Sustainability: Emphasis on green building, energy efficiency, and renewable energy projects. 5. Technological Advancements: Adoption of BIM, drones, and automation improving efficiency and reducing costs. 6. Resilience and Disaster Recovery: Demand for resilient infrastructure and disaster recovery projects due to natural disasters. ◉ Key Players in the Sector 1. Fluor Corporation NYSE:FLR : A global leader in engineering and construction, focusing on energy, chemicals, and infrastructure projects. 2. AECOM NYSE:ACM : A multinational firm providing design, consulting, and construction services for infrastructure, transportation, and environmental projects. 3. Quanta Services NYSE:PWR : A leading provider of specialized infrastructure services for the electric power, oil, and gas industries, including renewable energy projects. 4. Comfort Systems USA NYSE:FIX : A major player in mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) services for commercial and industrial buildings. 5. Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM : Provides construction services for energy, utilities, and infrastructure projects, with a growing focus on renewable energy. This report provides a comparative analysis of Quanta Services, Comfort Systems USA, and Primoris Services Corporation, examining their competitive dynamics in the U.S. construction and engineering sector. ◉ Technical Standings ➖ The charts for PWR, FIX, and PRIM exhibit similar trends, with stock prices currently experiencing a strong uptrend. ➖ Based on this momentum, it is expected that this trend will persist, driving prices even higher in the near future. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis ● PWR ➖ Q3 FY24 sales: $6.493 billion, up 16% sequentially and 15.5% YoY. ➖ Q3 EBITDA: $619 million, a significant increase from $463 million in Q2 and $542 million in Q3 FY23. ● FIX ➖ Q3 sales: $1.812 billion, flat sequentially but up 30% YoY. ➖ Q3 EBITDA: $238 million, up from $223 million in Q2 and $155 million in Q3 FY23. ● PRIM ➖ Q3 sales: $1.649 billion, an 8% YoY increase and the highest quaterly sales ever. ➖ Q3 EBITDA: $123 million, up from $112 million in Q2. ◉ Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ PWR stands at a P/E ratio of 54.2x. ➖ FIX is at a P/E ratio of 32.3x. ➖ PRIM shows a P/E ratio of 24.3x. ◾ These numbers indicate that PRIM is considerably undervalued when compared to its competitors. ● P/B Ratio ➖ PWR's P/B ratio stands at 6.2x. ➖ FIX's P/B ratio is 9.5x. ➖ On the other hand, PRIM's P/B ratio is significantly lower at 3x. ● PEG Ratio ➖ PWR boasts a PEG ratio of 3.54. ➖ FIX’S PEG ratio is recorded at 0.66. ➖ PRIM, meanwhile, has a PEG ratio of 0.90. ◾ Analyzing the PEG ratios reveals that FIX is currently undervalued relative to its peers. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis All three companies have reported significant improvements in operating cash flow for Q3 FY24: ➖ PWR saw an 82% increase to $740 million (LTM), up from $391 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23. ➖ FIX reported a 41% rise to $302 million (LTM), compared to $214 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23. ➖ PRIM achieved a 133% increase to $416 million (LTM), up from $178 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ PWR has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.6. ➖ FIX shows a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.19. ➖ In contrast, PRIM has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.73. ◾ FIX boasts the lowest debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a stronger balance sheet and reduced reliance on debt financing compared to its peers. ◉ Top Shareholders ● PWR ➖ The Vanguard Group - 11.4% ➖ BlackRock - 7.62% ● FIX ➖ The Vanguard Group - 10.5% ➖ BlackRock - 14% ● PRIM ➖ The Vanguard Group - 11.5% ➖ BlackRock - 10.4% ◉ Conclusion After a comprehensive analysis of the major players in the U.S. Construction & Engineering sector, including an in-depth review of technical capabilities and financial performance, Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM emerges as a standout candidate. The company’s robust financial health, supported by strong cash reserves, positions it well to navigate challenges such as debt concerns. The sector as a whole is poised for significant growth, driven by massive government spending on infrastructure and the ongoing trend of rapid urbanization. For investors, this presents a compelling opportunity. However, it is essential to conduct thorough research, establish clear investment objectives, and maintain a long-term perspective to capitalize on this growth while effectively managing risks.
NYSE:PWRLong
by NaranjCapital
6
Don't miss the Next AI Gold Rush! WATCH NOW!In this video, we delve into the next phase of artificial intelligence and explore the companies set to benefit the most. From giants like Microsoft and Salesforce to rising stars like Snowflake and CrowdStrike, we break down how each company is harnessing AI to revolutionize their industries. Don't miss out on this deep dive into the tech titans leading the AI charge and shaping the future. Subscribe and hit the bell icon to stay updated on the latest in AI advancements! NASDAQ:CRWD NYSE:CRM NYSE:SNOW NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TEAM NYSE:PATH NYSE:SHOP NASDAQ:DDOG NYSE:NET NASDAQ:MDB What companies are you positioned in or ready to start a position in? Let me know in the comments below!
NYSE:PATHLong
by RonnieV29
30
HelenP. I Gold will continue to move up inside upward channelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. In this chart, the price declined to support 2, which coincided with the support zone, and some time traded near this level and then rebounded up to support 1. Then Gold turned around and dropped to support 2, and when the price reached this level, it broke it and declined a little below. After this movement, the price in quickly rose back to support 2 and then some time traded in the support zone. Later price made a correction movement again and then started to grow inside an upward channel, where it soon broke support 2. In the channel, the price fell to the trend line, which is the support line of the channel also, and then continued to move up next. Some time later Gold rose to support 1, which coincided with one more support zone and broke this level. Soon, the price rose to the resistance line of the channel and then made a correction to trend line, but a not long time ago it rebounded and continued to rise. For this reason, I expect that XAUUSD will rise to 2800 points inside an upward channel. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FirstNameHelen
29
ASX 200: Why I'm not banking on [an immediate] record highThe ASX 200 cash market is tantalisingly close to retesting its record high set in December. Traders are betting on an RBA cut in February (and 100bp of cuts this year) which is helping to support the market. Yet I doubt the ASX will simply break to a new high without a fresh catalyst. Comparing the ASX 200 cash and futures market and their key levels, I explain why. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
ASX24:AP1!
by CityIndex
3
Dow 30 is nearing its ATH, how can we trade it?What's next for the Dow, and how can we trade it to maximize our return and reduce our risk? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:US30Long
by ThinkMarkets
5
White House Now Has a Crypto Working Group. Bullish or Bearish?President Donald Trump last week signed the White House’s first crypto-centric executive order after months of speculation and buzz, which led to a broad rise in crypto and a record for Bitcoin. The new directive outlines a bold plan to strengthen American leadership in digital financial technology . In Trump’s words, “make America the crypto capital of the world.” "The digital asset industry plays a crucial role in innovation and economic development in the United States, as well as our Nation's international leadership," the order's preamble states. It’s a 180-degree turn from the near-constant battering the crypto industry endured during President Biden’s administration. 🤝 Who’s on the team? The initiative will be headed by venture capitalist (and All-In podcast host) David Sacks, who Trump appointed as the White House crypto and artificial intelligence czar. It will also include the heads of the Treasury Department, Justice Department, and Securities and Exchange Commission, among other agency bosses. 📌 What’s on the agenda? While the order doesn’t go into much detail, it’s clear that its purpose is to pivot the US government to favor digital currencies . In the first 180 days of the group’s existence, the participants will need to hammer out an overall federal strategy for regulating crypto assets and stablecoins. The report will then be presented to President Trump. 📦 Anything on a Bitcoin strategic reserve? Bitcoin maxis were likely disappointed to see that there was no mention of Bitcoin BTCUSD in that order. Trump’s order didn’t announce the creation of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, which the President touted in the days leading up to the election (and then some more right after). Instead, the executive action only calls for studying the creation of a national stockpile of digital assets (more than just Bitcoin?), rather than whipping one up straight away. The US already has about $21 billion worth of mostly Bitcoin, but some other coins as well. 🚀 What’s next? The crypto working group now has 30 days to present its first report to the President. It will contain possible ways for the involved agencies to work together toward their goal of coming up with relevant pro-crypto policies. 👉 What do you think? Do you think this new group will move together for the benefit of the broader crypto industry? Or maybe serve their interests first before working for the common good? Share your thoughts in the comment section!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
27
Trump’s National Energy Emergency Aims to Press Oil Prices LowerWhat goes up eventually comes down. This is even more true for oil prices amid a range of forces at play. The recent rally has been popped by significant headwinds facing crude oil prices. WTI Crude Oil (“WTI) has trended down sharply amid sluggish demand and a surplus in supply. Global oil consumption has remained tepid, with China's economic recovery slower than expected and U.S. fuel demand showing seasonal weakness. WTI prices rallied sharply higher from mid-Dec until mid-Jan, driven by optimism over Chinese demand rebound expectations in 2025. Adding to that was the Biden administration’s tightening of sanctions on Russian crude, targeting producers and over 180 vessels transporting 1.7 million bpd (~25% of Russia’s exports). WTI optimism quickly faded as Trump took office on 20/Jan. He signed an executive order to boost oil & gas production, removing barriers and reversing Biden’s climate policies. Since then, WTI prices have pulled back 7.74%. Declaring a national energy emergency , Trump introduced measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals, aiming to lower costs & increase energy independence. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump called on OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia, to increase production and lower crude prices, triggering a fifth straight session of losses for WTI. Source: EIA The only tailwind to WTI prices amid all this oil gloom was the decline in crude inventories for the ninth consecutive week. The EIA reported a 1-million-barrel drop for the week ending 17/Jan, though it fell short of analysts’ 2.1-million-barrel forecast . EIA FORECASTS WTI PRICES TO TREND DOWN EIA in its latest STEO estimates WTI prices to fall throughout 2025 and 2026 on expectations of rising supply. Source: EIA STEO WTI prices are expected to average USD 70.31/barrel in 2025 & USD 62.46/barrel in 2026. The EIA expects OPEC+ to maintain production cuts to counter rising non-OPEC supply. Lower prices are likely to curb U.S. drilling activity and investment, resulting in only a modest production increase in 2026. After hitting a record 13.2 million bpd in 2024, U.S. crude output is projected to rise to 13.5 million bpd in 2025 and grow by less than 1% in 2026, averaging 13.6 million bpd as price pressures slow activity. This hints that Trump may have limited influence over U.S. production, as price remains the key driver. According to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey , U.S. oil firms need an average oil price of USD 64/barrel to drill profitably. TECHNICAL INDICATORS SIGNAL POTENTIAL BEARISH TREND ON THE HORIZON WTI crude oil futures have fallen sharply since 16/Jan. Along with it, the gap between the 9-day and 21-day moving averages has narrowed. The 9-day MA, which formed a golden cross on 13/Dec, now hints at a potential trend shift. On 21/Jan, prices closed below the 9-day MA and are now near the 21-day MA, signalling a waning bullish trend. WTI prices started the week above the monthly R2 resistance level but has since fallen below it. RSI began declining on 15/Jan after entering the overbought zone and dropped below its RSI-based moving average on 16/Jan. The MACD signalled weakening bullish momentum since 16/Jan, confirming a trend reversal and the start of a bearish trend on 23/Jan. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS For the week ending 14/Jan, managed money’s net long positioning in WTI crude oil (futures & options) fell 6.4% WoW, ending four weeks of sequential gains. Short positions surged 19.8% to 47,252 lots, while long positions declined 2.7% to 277,944 lots. Source: CME QuikStrike Scaling back of net long positions by managed money may be a signal of bearish expectations ahead. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Trump’s push for lower crude prices will intensify downward pressure on WTI in an oversupplied market. Threats of tariffs further risk dampening global trade, delaying an oil demand recovery. Do not write off the likelihood of a shock serving as a tailwind to oil prices. For now, pressure remains on oil prices to cool off in the near term, with ample forces pushing them lower. Portfolio Managers and Traders can express this bearish view on WTI prices using CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures. CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures offer the same exposure to crude oil price movements as standard WTI futures, but at 1/10th the contract size, making them more accessible while creating alternatives for granular hedging. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (Mar 2025) expiring on 19/Feb (MCLH2025) with the following trade setup: • Entry: 75.60/barrel • Target: 71.50/barrel • Stop: 77.00/barrel • P&L at Target (per lot): +410 ((75.60 – 71.50) x 100) • P&L at Stop (per lot): -140 ((75.60 – 77.00) x 100) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.9x CME Group has made a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. TradingView will be launching The Leap starting on 3rd February 2025. New and upcoming traders could hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group. Click here to learn more. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by mintdotfinance
5
Silver/Gold Ratio signals Lower Interest Rates AheadWhen OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver) does well relative to OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold), it means the economy is strong and interest rates tend to rise when that happens. The opposite is also true. When Silver is weak relative to Gold, interest rates tend to fall. See how it works historically? The 1997 drop in rates when the silver/gold ratio shot up is the rare exception Why does it work? Silver is an economic metal used in industry and gold is a precious metal which used to be used for technology in the 1970's. Well - it shows now that rates should be going down because the economy is flat, weak or recessionary. However you want to label it, the economy can afford lower interest rates. This LONG TERM indicator has worked quite well and deserves to be on your list of indicators to track the likely path of interest rates. OF COURSE, the more important factor is WHO is at the head of the Fed. Lower rates would make sense especially if the profligate Government spending machine slows down its aggressive spending. The global war on covid didn't help and the clear message that the market is telling us is that we needed to slow down the price hikes but we now have a US Gov't deeply in debt and struggling to be able to justify lower rates. Here's to clarity on the future moves by the Fed, which if you were just looking at this indicator you would be cutting rates steadily for the foreseeable future. Cheers, Tim 11:47AM EST January 28, 2025
OANDA:XAGUSD
by timwest
17
BTCUSDT soon below 100K$ and heavy fall will leadThis post is also educational and now as we can see the pump and breakout was fake and the fall started:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/sbV6gZGS-Bitcoin-major-sign-of-Stop-loss-hunting-and-dump-seen/ so the question is this that why we are looking for below 100K$ or 90K$? 1. first reason: stop loss hunting which is mentioned as i said before makes a good volume and liquidation for them to enter the position and make a good profit and if you take look at chart we have two Fakeouts at same time and with one high volume candle it is all done, yes the first one is those sellers which enter with resistance of red trendline and the other sellers also joined with resistance of ATH and both of them which used high volume now are out because they had the Felling that if Bitcoin break ATH it will pump and they put stop loss close and both get loss and gets out of trade + we have two major buyers which get in the trade to open long and first are those who enter after breakout of trendline and add more volume after ATH broke and others are those who open long after ATH breakout and were looking for more rise and gain so soon their stop loss will also hit or already done and that is another good volume for them. 2. second reason: usually like previous time which we can see fake breakout we have good move to the upside or downside and i think the dump just started and it will continue more at least to 90K$. Always do your own research and also remember more reasons and ... will cause this fall and here i mentioned two of them you can add more in comments and mention why we are looking for more fall? DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Education
by MMBTtrader
58
Nvidia's Largest Single-Day Decline and Its ImplicationsNvidia Experienced Its Largest Single-Day Decline on 27th Jan, tumbled 17%, erasing USD589B from its market capitalisation, it was the biggest in the US stock market history. What will be the implications? Last month, we discussed how the Nasdaq reached and responded well to the upper band of its parallel channel. Nvidia being one of the largest market cap stocks in Nasdaq. What will be Nasdaq’s performance like for the rest of the year? Let’s explore how we can include fundamental analysis to make sense of the situation. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
7
Uptrend in Regions Financial?Regions Financial leaped to new record highs after Donald Trump was reelected as U.S. President. Now, following a pullback, some traders may think its uptrend remains in effect. The first pattern on today’s chart is the price range between $23 and $24. RF tested and held the bottom of this channel in the second half of December and again in the first half of January. The stock leaped above $24 on January 15 and has remained there since. Has old resistance become new support? Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is above the 100-day SMA. Both are above the 200-day SMA. That may reflect a longer-term bullish trend. Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA. MACD is also rising. Both of those signals may indicate bulls are taking charge over the shorter term. Finally, the current price area is near previous highs from 2022 and 2023. Further gains from here could be viewed as a long-term breakout. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:RF
by TradeStation
2
Crude Oil Trade Idea: Bounce from Support or Rally to $80?Macro Update Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off. Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations. Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions. Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity. Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events: Wednesday, January 29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025. Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Thursday, January 30th: ECB interest rate decision Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ). Friday, January 31st: Core PCE Price Index (Dec). Crude Oil Futures Update Our prior trade idea from January 13 played out well, with Scenario 1 materializing. While prices briefly approached $80, crude oil futures have since retreated to trade near the $74 handle. As we close out January, here’s an updated map of key levels to watch: Key Observations: On the chart, we can see a downtrend channel after the recent push higher in crude oil. Our blue zone is our LIS (73.65 - 74 zone). We see the market pulling back towards the confluence of 2024 VAH, 2024 mid range and 2025 yearly open. This is our key support for bulls to take long trade. Scenario 1: Down and Back Up Watch for a pullback toward the key confluence zone from our LIS. A bounce from this confluence zone could offer a strong opportunity for bulls to take long trades, targeting higher levels. Scenario 2: Rally Toward $80 If prices reclaim the January 2025 mid-range and confirm bullish setups, long trades targeting a move back toward monthly highs in the $80 range may develop. For risk management during volatile conditions, traders can consider Micro Crude Oil Futures . Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading. This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets. Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
1
NVIDIA's Record Drop: Live with TradeStation (TradingView Show)Join us once again LIVE with David Russell, Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation, as we dive into the stock market sell-off and what it means for your portfolio heading into February 2025. With heightened volatility, NVIDIA taking a hit, and AI-driven tools like DeepSeek offering new market analysis, it’s key to understand how to navigate the current turbulence. As January winds down, we’ll discuss strategies to stay ahead, leverage relative strength, and position for long-term success despite the ongoing downturn. Here’s a sneak peek of what we’ll cover: 1. NVIDIA’s recent drop is tied to DeepSeek’s shift in AI pricing, raising concerns about future profitability. Investors are still assessing how this will affect NVIDIA’s growth trajectory. 2. While attention is on volatility, some stocks have quietly hit all-time highs, revealing hidden strength in overlooked sectors. These gains suggest opportunities many may be missing. 3. Emerging strength is especially evident in sectors like communications and certain industrials, with companies showing resilience and strong earnings. These sectors could offer solid value plays for those willing to look beyond the obvious. 4. Traders heading into 2025 should focus on managing risk and staying nimble, especially with potential rate hikes and geopolitical risks on the horizon. Flexibility and discipline will be essential. 5. As the Fed meeting and GDP report approach, the market is primed for volatility. These key releases could signal shifts in monetary policy or economic conditions, making it vital to stay informed and adjust your positions accordingly. Don’t miss this session for actionable insights on how to navigate this market turbulence and set yourself up for success in 2025. This show is sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation pursues a singular vision to offer the ultimate online trading platform and services for self-directed traders and investors across the equities, equity index options, futures, and futures options markets. Equities, equities options, and commodity futures products and services are offered by TradeStation Securities Inc., member NYSE, FINRA, CME, and SIPC. See below: www.tradestation.com www.tradestation.com
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradingView
2
Did We Just Witness AI Black Monday? DeepSeek Shocks Tech StocksPanic sell, panic sell, panic sell! That’s basically how Monday went for Wall Street and those of you who hold Nvidia shares. Or just about any other tech stock — you name it, it likely fell nose first when a big and scary Chinese artificial intelligence startup unveiled its new AI model. DeepSeek. What in the world is DeepSeek and why do I hear about it now? DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, may have just stripped Nvidia of its untouchable status as the go-to company that develops expensive chips to train AI models. DeepSeek announced it had trained its latest model, a rival of ChatGPT, for the negligible $5.6 million in computing costs. The story gets even crazier: it did it with 2,048 Nvidia H800 GPUs (bought before the US rolled out export restrictions). That’s a meager 5% of the $100 million OpenAI blew on training its GPT-4 model in late 2023. And, what’s even more, DeepSeek’s model, called R1, churns out responses that are scarily close to the advanced US-bred technology. Oh, and it’s open source, unlike OpenAI, which was originally open source but shut its doors to the public. It’s also free to use, unlike ChatGPT, which offers a paid tier between $240 and $2,400 a year. DeepSeek’s R1 model is quickly gaining traction among users as it made its way to the top of Apple’s App Store rankings. DeepSeek has factored in demand from corporations, too. While OpenAI hosts the model on its own platform, its Chinese rival allows you to host this beast on your own hardware, which is a big deal to lots of businesses that work with sensitive data. The stock market was so shocked by the news that you can get pretty much the same result for a fraction of the cost (and give it to users for free), it ran for the hills. The aftermath — Monday saw more than $1 trillion washed out from the valuation of the Magnificent Seven club. One company specifically took the biggest blow. Can DeepSeek deep-six Nvidia’s world dominance plans? Have companies been overpaying for Nvidia’s $30,000 chips? And have investors been overpaying for Nvidia’s shares? Nvidia NVDA pulled in a record $35 billion in Q3 , 2024 and struck a gross margin of 75% and net income of $20 billion. The Jensen Huang-led company on Monday showed it can also hit records in reverse. Closing down 17% for the cash session, it took the biggest L in history. This was the largest destruction of value for a single company ever — $589 billion . So why was Nvidia particularly hit by DeepSeek’s rise? Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of the vast amounts of cash companies spent on AI. Simply because Nvidia makes the semiconductors used to train AI models. But if the same result (or just about the same) could be achieved through far less expensive means, why bother propelling Nvidia to the top echelon of the world’s biggest companies ? Nvidia has picked up roughly $131 billion over the past two years from the sale of data-center equipment, mostly AI chips. Its client list includes the biggest names in tech, such as Amazon AMZN , Microsoft MSFT , Meta META and Alphabet GOOGL . These four combined have shelled out $343 billion in AI-related capex (capital expenditures) over the past two years. Since the release of ChatGPT, Nvidia shares have surged more than 700%. Could we be looking at the good old supply and demand equation in play? If DeepSeek’s claims are true, and other companies can do the same (it’s an open-source model), then the scales could turn from undersupply to oversupply. Can we then see a market crash that’s beyond anything we’ve ever thought possible? Or is that freak-out an unjustified stretch? Share your thoughts in the comment section below.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradingView
15