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Brilliant Basics - Part 1: Trendlines"Champions are brilliant at the basics." - John Robert Wooden, legendary basketball coach. In trading, just like in sports, mastering the fundamentals forms the foundations for exceptional performance. Welcome to the first part of our educational series, Brilliant Basics . In this series, we'll explore how mastering the fundamentals lays the groundwork for achieving high-level performance in trading. Today, we focus on trendlines, a crucial tool for any trader aiming to understand market momentum. Simple Elegance Trendlines are so simple in their design that their importance can often be dismissed. A child could map the swings of a market and tell you whether the line was upward or downward sloping. Yet, this simplicity is precisely what gives trendlines their potency. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results The elegance of trendlines lies in their ability to distil market movements into an easily interpretable format. This simplicity does not mean they lack depth; rather, it means they are accessible to all traders, regardless of experience level. Here’s why their simplicity is so important: Clarity in Chaos: Markets can be noisy and unpredictable, but trendlines help to bring order to this chaos. If drawn correctly, they provide a clear visual representation of the market’s overall direction and volatility. Universal Application: Trendlines can be applied to any market, on any timeframe. Whether you are trading stocks, commodities, or forex, trendlines work the same way, making them a universal tool in a trader's toolkit. Consistent Feedback: Trendlines offer immediate visual feedback on price action. If a trendline is respected by the market, it reinforces your analysis. If it is broken, it signals a potential change in momentum or trend. How to Draw Trendlines Correctly Drawing trendlines might seem straightforward, but there are specific guidelines to ensure they are both accurate and useful: 1. Identify Swings: Begin by identifying the swing highs and swing lows on your chart. For an uptrend line, connect at least two higher lows. For a downtrend line, connect at least two lower highs. Ensure these points are significant swings and not minor fluctuations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Avoid Cutting Prices: A trendline should not intersect any price action between the points it connects. Drawing a trendline that cuts through price bars undermines its validity and the potential insights it can offer. The line should clearly touch the chosen swing points without cutting through the price action in between. Draw multiple high quality trendlines rather than a ‘line of best fit’. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Consistency: Maintain a consistent approach when drawing trendlines. Use the same criteria for identifying swing points and avoid forcing a trendline to fit the data. This consistency helps in making objective and reliable trading decisions. Trendline Fans and Their Insights A single trendline can offer valuable insights, but using multiple trendlines—forming a trendline fan—can provide a deeper understanding of market momentum and potential changes in trend. Rising Momentum: In an uptrend, if the subsequent trendlines are steeper, it indicates increasing momentum. Each steeper line shows that buyers are stepping in more aggressively. However, should trendlines increase in steepness exponentially this leaves the trend vulnerable to exhaustion. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Ebbing Momentum: Conversely, if the subsequent trendlines in an uptrend are less steep, it indicates decreasing momentum. This situation suggests that while prices are still rising, the strength of the upward movement is waning. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Practical Applications Understanding the simplicity of trendlines enhances their practical application in trading. Here’s how you can leverage their elegance: Momentum Assessment: As we’ve seen with the trendline fans, the steepness of a trendline or progressive steepness of a trendline fan can give a valuable real-time insight into market momentum. Support and Resistance: Trendlines act as dynamic support and resistance levels. In an uptrend, the trendline or trendline fan serves as a support levels where price may bounce back up upon testing. In a downtrend, the trendline acts as resistance, where price might reverse downward upon touching. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Entry Signals: Trendline breaks can serve as entry signals, especially when used on multiple timeframes. A break above a downtrend line on a lower timeframe, in-line with a bigger picture uptrend could create an attractive buying opportunity. The inverse is true with a break below an ascending trendline on a lower timeframe. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Exit Signals: Trendline breaks can serve as exit signals. A break below an uptrend line or multiple uptrend lines in a trendline fan might indicate a potential reversal and an exit point. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary: The simple elegance of trendlines makes them an indispensable tool in technical analysis. Their straightforward nature belies the depth of information they can provide, making them accessible yet useful. By mastering the basics of drawing and interpreting trendlines, traders can gain a clearer understanding of market trends and make more informed trading decisions. As we continue our Brilliant Basics series, stay tuned for Part 2, where we will explore support and resistance levels. Understanding this fundamental concept will further enhance your ability to identify potential reversal zones. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by Capitalcom
5
☄️ SEC GREENLIGHTS ETHEREUM ETF'S! HISTORIC ☄️☄️ Crazy development today as we now know that the SEC has officially greenlit ETF's for Ethereum in a widely anticipated move, helping to further bolster and boost crypto's foothold and position in the financial world, giving many a confidence boost in crypto and helping to set the stage for the role that cryptocurrencies will come to play in the next few years for not one, but many. ☄️ Retail investors and whale's have been waiting to see what the SEC would ultimately decide in it's decision on whether or not to approve ETF's for Ethereum, much like what we've already seen in the last few months with the SEC also approving ETF's for Bitcoin setting the stage for others to enter the crypto space such as Blackrock which itself has seen record Bitcoin inflows this month, even hitting a 6 week high as highlighted in the article linked below: cointelegraph.com ☄️ That being said as we can see by the chart linked below, Ethereum whales and retail investors alike, took the news well and we can see just how much of a jump we've gotten since then. ☄️ It's a crazy jump, even with the news considered. I mean price jumped from $3100 to $3,700 like nothing even managing to hit $3,900, it's unprecedented but something we'll gladly take, especially after this news it's the kind of positive reaction we like to see. ☄️ Everything considered, the next few days will be pretty pivotal as we'll undoubtedly face retest and traders will be watching things intensely to see whether or not we can break up further or if we'll retrace and get a reversal. Personally I see us retracing, after an impulse move up we almost always see some sort of reversal or retracement. We'll see this battle the next few days as many seek to close positions and take profit while many others in turn will be buying whether it be for FOMO Or in anticipation, hope for prices to move up higher. ☄️ I can see that happening though again, we have had a literal 25% jump from 3100, you don't see that kind of jump everyday, let alone at all in some cases, below I've added two lines to display this ascending channel we've got: ☄️ Personally, I can see this being the make or break it for traders, long as we keep within the channel things are bullish overall but if we fall below and out of the channel then we'll likely drop, retrace and face losing that 200 EMA by which then we'd risk falling even further so I'd definitely keep an eye out for those things and a likely retracement, especially after this impulse wave. ☄️ I just wanted to make a quick post, this has been a historic move and I'm glad I've been able to take part and be here for such an event, I've added a link to an article on the greenlight below as well for reference. Thanks for tuning in and blessing's, here's to a bright future for crypto. 🥂 www.ft.com ~ Rock '
by Rocksorgate
9
Why longer term charts are importantI took a look at the weekly gold/silver ratio and noticed a few significant patterns. For example, there was a notable acceleration downward following the break of a 3-year uptrend a couple of weeks ago. Additionally, there is support at the 74.65/63 level, which has been in place since January 2022. This observation reminded me of the importance of examining long-term charts, regardless of your trading time frame. Longer-term charts provide essential context and clarity that short-term charts often lack. Why everyone should be looking at longer term charts: 1. Identifying Trends Long-term charts help in identifying significant trends that might not be visible in short-term data. 2. Smoothing Out Volatility Short-term data is often noisy, with frequent fluctuations that can obscure the underlying pattern. Long-term charts smooth out this volatility, providing a clearer picture of the fundamental movement and reducing the influence of random, short-term events. 3. Contextualizing Current Movements Long-term charts place current price or economic movements in a broader context. This helps investors and analysts understand whether a recent change is part of a larger trend or not. 4. Historical Comparisons These charts allow for comparisons with past periods, making it possible to identify cycles, recurring patterns, and historical precedents. This historical perspective can be invaluable for forecasting future movements and making informed predictions. 5. Assessing Risk and Reward By examining long-term performance, investors can better assess the potential risks and rewards of an investment. Understanding how an asset has performed over various market cycles helps in evaluating its stability and growth potential. 6. Avoiding Emotional Bias Short-term market movements can evoke strong emotional responses, leading to impulsive decisions. Long-term charts provide a more detached view, helping investors stay focused on long-term objectives and avoid reacting to short-term market noise. Conclusion In summary, long-term charts offer a comprehensive view that is critical for understanding trends, reducing noise, contextualizing current events, making historical comparisons, assessing risk, avoiding emotional decisions, developing strategies, and analysing economic cycles. They are an indispensable tool for anyone involved in financial markets or economic analysis, providing the clarity and perspective necessary for informed decision-making. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:GOLDSILVEREducation
by The_STA
7
GME Gamestop Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn a recent video, I covered a trade idea prior to the Gamestop (GME) bull rally. Since then, we’ve observed a significant bearish movement. I’m closely monitoring the current price level for another potential buying opportunity, provided that price action aligns with my analysis from the video. The market is currently moving sideways, and if we wait for increased volatility above and below the range, we might be able to capitalize on a bullish trend by entering a break re-test and fail of the range on the 15-minute chart if we see higher highs/lows forming. The video covers critical elements, including trend analysis, price action insights, market structure, and a potential trade setup. Always exercise prudent risk management when trading, and keep in mind that this information is purely educational and not financial advice. 🚀📊
NYSE:GMELong
by fxtraderanthony
13
Bitcoin - New all time high soon! (Follow this channel)Bitcoin is breaking out of the bear market structure and creating a new uptrend that will lead to an all-time high! This thesis is supported by the fact that after the halving event, Bitcoin always goes up (statistically, 100% probability). The halving event took place 1 month ago and cut the reward for mines by half. It's recommended to trade with the trend to increase the probability of success in your trades. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been moving in the ascending parallel channel, so you can definitely take advantage of that and buy/sell Bitcoin at the upward sloping trendlines! With TradingView, you can set an alert, and when it hits, you will get notified.  What are the resistances on the way up? As I mentioned, the upward-sloping trendline of the parallel ascending channel is the first one. The second one is the FAIR VALUE GAP (FVGAP) which was created in April 2024. Usually, the start of the GAP and the end of the GAP are strong levels by themselves. You can use these levels for your short-term trades with leverage. These resistances Bitcoin needs to break before a continuation to a new all-time high; I don't see any other significant levels worth mentioning. Always choose the strongest levels to increase the probability of success. I am bullish on Bitcoin, and I believe we will see prices above 100k in Q3/Q4 2024. Let me know in the comment section - are you still waiting for a big crash to buy the dip? Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
Long
by Xanrox
88
Bitcoin BTC price + CPI US 15.05 will stir up the marketHere is a chart of #BTCUSDT on the 12-hour timeframe. At first glance, it looks nothing special: a prolonged consolidation on falling trading volumes, everything is natural and natural. But tomorrow, at 15.05 at lunchtime with the close of the 12hr candlestick, everything can change. Tomorrow is the announcement of the "fresh" US CPI rate. Forecast: inflation will decrease from 3.5% to 3.4%. Declining inflation = a good signal for the growth of financial markets. But the tweet from Mr. Biden adds some "spice". President Biden: wants to give new home buyers $400 per month for 2 years to help people with housing. This is either a pre-election promise or a good opportunity to start the “printing press” And now for a bit of conspiracy theorizing: Let's assume for a moment that Biden knows a little more than we do. And tomorrow it will be announced that inflation has fallen not to 3.4% but to 3.2% or even 3%. This will definitely cause a powerful surge and growth in the market. The last thing that comes to mind is how massively $ were printed and distributed in the spring of 2020 as financial aid during COVID-19. Do you remember how the crypto market grew then in 20\21 from an additional portion of “retail's crazy money”?) So where do you think the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price will go in 24 hours? 👍 towards $71000 👎🏿 towards $56500
by P_S_trade
23
GameStop Stock Evokes Dreams of Rocket Ships and Diamond HandsShares of the video game store tested retail traders’ survival skills. But the meme stock madness also bamboozled the pros. In the span of just a few regular trading sessions, with some stomach-churning pre-market action in between, GameStop once again made headlines. Roughly three years ago, Keith Gill — known as “Roaring Kitty” on the internet (mostly Reddit) — triggered a huge rally in the shares of a little known video game retailer called GameStop NYSE:GME . The Hidden Gem Roaring Kitty took a big long position in GameStop for his belief that it was a company with a lot of potential. And at the same time, he blamed the big bad hedge funds for keeping a lid on share-price growth by shorting the living thing out of it. Mr Kitty’s thesis caught the attention of fellow retail traders on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets chat board, a place where self-described “degens” exchange fast-churning trading ideas. Soon after, shares were flying high, riding on gains of more than 2,000%. GameStop was set free and institutional investors got smoked. These were the good old days of speculative pumps and the absolute power of like-minded individuals seeking the thrill of quick profit and adrenaline rush. And — it seems — we’re back at it again with the meme stock corner going fully bananas. Roaring Comeback Roaring Kitty’s X account switched the lights on after three years of silence. In a rather vague post, he published a drawing of a man leaning forward . Boy, did that get understood in all the possible ways. Shares took off by as much as 75% a day after that post went live. A breakneck rally went on for a few more days, evoking dreams of rocket ships and diamond hands. A week later, none of that is there anymore. Shares are not only back where they were before the surge — they’re doing worse. The rollercoaster ride lifted the stock from $20 on Monday to $80 on Tuesday, a 300% pop per share. By Friday, shares had briefly dipped below $20, pulling off a boomerang move and erasing 75% from the stock’s weekly peak. And, this is how GameStop tricked retail investors into believing that this the GameStop rally 2.0. But, before that, it smacked professionals with huge losses on the way up. Same Old, Same Old Professional money managers had borrowed about 30% of all shares outstanding for — you guessed it — shorting purposes. The thing with shorting a stock, i.e. profiting from its decline, is that if you’re wrong, you can be wrong until your account is wiped out because shares could rise indefinitely. GameStop short sellers were ironed out. They lost more than $2 billion in just two days, according to data analytics firm S3 Partners. “After being down $862 million in mark-to-market losses yesterday, NYSE:GME shorts are down another $1.36 billion in mark-to-market losses today,” S3 Partners’ Managing Director Ihor Dusaniwsky commented on X . If only there was some similar experience in recent history that would inform hedge funds: Not to bet on a red-hot stock, popular among the retail crowds, because you’ll get burned if they come after you with a short squeeze. Not to bet on a red-hot stock that’s thinly traded, because you won’t be able to easily get rid of your short position that’s draining your funds. After all, they did make a movie ( “Dumb Money” ) about shorting GameStop. Yet, “smart money” did it again. Professional hedge funders weren’t the only ones to get knocked. What Goes Up Must Come Down The retail trading army on Reddit and X lost some serious cash, too. Just when shares were going in the other direction. Redditors on r/WallStreetBets initially cheered the first rays of the powerful upside swing. This sparked hopes of a revival before these same guys started flooding the board with screenshots of mounting losses as shares were nosediving. What Happened and Why the Fast About-Face? Other than the super frothy state of the highly inflated stock, what helped shares come back to earth was GameStop’s securities filing to sell some equity. Apparently, the C-suite of the video game store figured they could ride out the surge and issue up to 45 million shares that would dilute the number of existing shares by as much as 15%. In another price-damaging filing , GameStop said that it expects net sales for the current quarter to land between $872 million and $892 million. The forecast is well below last year’s $1.237 billion and the consensus views for $1.045 billion. With that said, GameStop shares are still in the green for the year, following the head-spinning trip to the moon and back. So, until next time? We Want to Hear from You! Let us know about your experience with that volatile beast! Do you own shares, when did you buy, and are you optimistic about the future of GameStop?
NYSE:GME
by TradingView
30
Trapped traders provides a great Short opportunity on DOW The plan for the session was to trade short off resistance on the DOW after an initial opening drive higher. The short side was the play and paid out nicely for patient sellers. In the video I talk through the key Price Action for the move and prime trade areas on the DOW Index. ANY QUESTIONS, JUST LEAVE IN THE COMMENTS !! ** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more ideas and learning material ** ** Any Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by TradeTheStructure
4
Bitcoin: 64K Test For New Longs.Bitcoin has followed my anticipated scenario nicely over the recent two weeks (it doesn't always agree). As I have written in my previous two articles, the 64K and 68K resistance areas are potential take profit zones, NOT locations to put on more risk. Price action appears to be confirming that and is attempting to retrace off the 66K area minor resistance (See upper arrow). While this price action appears to be bearish it must be considered in light of the broader structure. Since the March peak, Bitcoin has been in consolidation mode (upon completion of 5 waves). This structure represents a broader HIGHER LOW with 56K established as the bottom of the range. This implies that the broader trend continues to be BULLISH even though recent price action has yet to push major resistances. This is a key piece of context because it helps to shape risk and profit potential for the near future. How you navigate this will depend on your risk tolerance and trade style but no matter how you look at it, current prices are unattractive for longs on most time horizons in my opinion. The scenario I anticipate this week (see illustration) is a minor retrace to 64K (old resistance/new support) followed by a momentum continuation into the 70K resistance. If a long confirmation appears (Trade Scanner Pro), this can play out well for traders on shorter time horizons. While I am optimistic in this regard, I also consider that price CAN break 64K and test 60K again. There is NO way to forecast how the market will behave, ESPECIALLY the longer the time horizon. Managing risk and capitalizing on movements EFFECTIVELY requires knowing how to evaluate market structure in order to stack probabilities. Based on this context if I can determine the trend is bullish for example, I can estimate that supports have a greater than 50% chance of staying intact. I can also expect long signals to have greater than 50% chance of generating some amount of profit, but there is no way to anticipate how much exactly (markets are MOSTLY RANDOM). Adjusting to price action and looking for signal conflicts or using a trailing stop helps to improve decision making in such an environment. If you get stuck on ideas, cling to hope or consume too much internet, you will soon learn how ineffective this is. The market is a great teacher but the lessons are often VERY EXPENSIVE. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
Want to spot a turning point in trend before it happens?Want to spot a turning point in trend before it happens? Use Elliott wave parallel channel This chart shows the GBP/JPY currency pair using monthly candlesticks. The advance from Sep 2011 to June 2015 can be labeled as an impulse wave (A). From that high, the pair declined in three waves labeled as wave (B) of a Zigzag A-B-C correction with an expanding diagonal characteristic in the C wave position. As a rule, in a Zigzag rally, wave B notably terminates above the origin of wave A. When wave (C) advance of a zigzag rally is in operation, we can forecast where wave (C) might end. We can use Elliott wave channel projection by connecting the origin of wave (A) with the end of wave (B) and then drawing a parallel line from the end of wave (A). As a guideline, the resulting channel gives us a potential target for the wave (C) endpoint. Moreover, we can also use ratio analysis to improve the odds. As a guideline, in Zigzag formations, wave (C) commonly ends after traveling the same length as wave (A). Observe this level corresponds with the Elliott wave channel projection. This cluster of evidence hints at wave (C) advance from Mar 2020 is in late stages and that prices are approaching a major top.
Education
by Aquanet_Market_Forecast
17
Myth Busting: Market Style!I have been very lacking in producing educational content. I know a lot of you follow for my analysis, some others for my indicators and some others for my educational content. While I have been getting back in the groove of posting for the later 2, I have neglected those interested in educational content. So voila, here we are with an educational post! In this post, I want to dispel and or validate some market conjecture based on actual research and my own observations, from indicators, to chart patterns to different market theories. The post will be formatted in the great MYTH BUSTER format! Hope you enjoy! Myth #1: All indicators are interchangeable and one indicator can be used for any type of equity. You all likely have seen, whether on tradingview or other sites, the magical indicators that “work in all markets!”. And you tell yourself, “oh wow, too good to be true, right?!” And the fact is, it is too good to be true. This is a myth and is absolutely false. No one indicator will be cross compatible for multiple different equity types. No one indicator will be sufficient even within the same equity types (i.e. just because RSI works for MSFT doesn’t mean it will work for NVDA). You can actually objectively view this for yourself if you apply my ATREE indicator . Just as a quick explanation, the ATREE indicator uses MFI, Stochastics, RSI and Z-Score to determine sentiment. It will also provide you with back-test results as to how effective it is at gauging sentiment based on these individuals technical. If we look at ATREE for NVDA: Pay attention to the backtest results on the right side of the screen. These provide the raw success rate of its sentiment estimations. For NVDA, we can see that Stochastics can predict sentiment roughly 76% of the time on the daily timeframe. However, if we flip on over to MSFT We see that Z-Score is actually much more effective at determining sentiment than RSI, Stochastics or MFI. This is just an example, but to show you another one, let’s take the Ichimoku cloud with buy and sell signals and put it on MSFT: We can see, it nailed the buy but pretty hit or miss for the sell. I wouldn’t say this is a great indicator to use for MSFT shorting. However, if we flip on over to SPY with the same indicator: Its been a bit more on point. Understanding unique individual ticker intricacies is my whole shebang. I produce models to predict sentiment. If you are part of my community you know there are 4 commonly used models that we employ, from LSTM, to ARIMA, to Eucledian Distance models to Momentum Technical Models. Not all are equal for all stocks. For example, we will reference momentum for tickers like NVDA, but Eucledian distance is better for tickers like SPY. How do you figure this out? Backtesting! I’ve said it in other educational ideas and I saw it again, you always need to backtest your strategy! Myth #1 Verdict: So, are all indicators good for all markets? NO! This is BUSTED! Myth #2: Trendlines and chart patterns are helpful and pivotal for trading stocks There tends to two schools of thought to this. Train 1 is that trendlines are pivotal for trading and making assumptions. Train 2 of thought is that they are not helpful and quite frankly useless. However, in mainstream trading theory and teachings, trendlines are a often cited and often taught method of market determination. But are they useful? Well, it depends. Trendlines can give us context, without trendlines we would have no context and would just be trading random candles on a blank space. The degree of efficacy of these trendlines can depend on things like: a) The duration of the trend, b) The skill of the chartist, c) The number of tests of the trendline, d) The overall economic climate that a stock is in. Obviously, I personally found trendlines problematic, hence my resorting to computer modelling. However, in my years of experience and my maturity in the market, I reapproached the trendline theory as supplemental to modelling and have made some relevant observations, which I will discuss below. The first point is that not all tickers are created equal. Sound familiar? Yeah this was the basis of Myth #1 about technical indicators. The truth is, it applies to trendlines, too. Let’s take a look at DUO, a small cap stock: DUO recently did, arguably, a dead cat bounce and produced this pennant you see in the chart above. Now DUO is small cap, low volume stock that barely moves. Suddenly, we have this pennant out of nowhere and with no major catalyst. So what happened? Nothing, it ended up selling into EOD multiple times. Let’s take a look at NVDA: NVDA broke down from a major trendline around April 3rd. This would signal a short. And indeed, it was a short, for a short duration of time. It mostly was rangy and stagnant. But it did sell. This trendline was from January of 2024 and ended in April of 2024, a relatively long and stable trendline. NVDA is also a large cap stock with huge amounts of liquidity and volume, So we can expect follow through on major trendlines. Trendlines have also been pivotal for intra-day trading. Let’s look back at NVDA (since its my daily go to for day trading): During open, on the 1 minute chart, we could see NVDA forming a pennant. Based on the modelled data we had two potential price targets, a bull target of 957 and a bear target of 929. What NVDA does with this pennant (breakout or breakdown) can help us ascertain which target price is correct. What happened? NVDA broke down, and then it travelled all the way down to that 929 target: So it would seem that chart patterns are indeed useful. However, they are not overly helpful with indicating target price, As well, they are only useful when the stock has high volume, good liquidity and is heavily traded. The efficacy of trendlines and chart patterns likely comes from volume of traders who are looking at similar trendlines. In order for trendlines to influence a stock movement, you need volume from traders who are paying attention to the same thing in order to move it. This is why penny stocks and low float, small cap stocks do not respect trendlines and patterns in the same way. Verdict for Myth #2? CONFIRMED! Myth #3: Market theories such as Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) and Efficient Market Theory are applicable to all tickers and the market as a whole? If you are a trader, likely you subscribe to one market theory or another. If you are investor, its likely you subscribe to modern portfolio management theory (which emphasizes diversification). If you are a day or swing trader, perhaps you subscribe to the Efficient Market Hypothesis or EWT. These all remain “theories” because they have yet to prove valid or invalid in research. However, aside from the investor mindset of diversification, no one theory of the market works for all tickers. In fact, some research has come out about EWT specifically and has indicated that it can be useful in predicting some markets (such as the S&P); however, the results are not generalizable to others (specifically Crypto and some individual tickers). The same can be said about the efficient market theory/hypothesis and many others that have been researched, disproven in some circumstances and proven in others. So, what is the verdict here? This is BUSTED. Market theories, aside from an investor mindsight, are not generalizable to all equities, instruments and markets. This is semi based on my own observations but mostly from academic research I have reviewed on this topic (hence why I have no beautiful charts to display for this myth). And the last myth I will cover in this post: Myth #4: Diversification is pivotal for day traders The wisdom here is that, you need to diversify for day trading. You need to identify setups on whatever stock has those setups and play whichever stock confirms best to your setup. The truth is, this is rarely necessary. In fact, sticking to a handful of routine stocks can be advantageous, as you will grow to learn the intricacies of the particular stocks you are trading routinely. I go through phases but right now, 99% of the time I am trading NVDA. This works for me because there is usually always a setup available on large cap stocks. Let’s review some of the setups I have taken on NVDA: You can see NVDA loves its morning triangles, and I love them too! You can absolutely get back with trading one ticker, provided that it has good volatility and movement. In times of economic stability (i.e. currently), its best to avoid the indices as a day trading candidate as they tend to move slower and more purposefully. So what is the verdict of Myth #4? Thanks for reading everyone! I may do more of these myth buster posts, they’re fun to research and find examples and really reflect on what I have learned as a trader. Feel free to submit any myths you live by in the comments and I can look into them for maybe a future post! Safe trades as always!
SP:SPXEducation
by Steversteves
4
5-Year SPX500 Expectations - Greatest Opportunity Of Your LifeWould you believe me if I told you the US & global markets (some) will rally more than 65% to 125% (or more) over the next 4 to 5+ years? You would probably call me crazy for even suggesting that will happen in a reasonably short time frame. But, what if I could show you how structurally (using Elliot Wave concepts and Fibonacci) this incredible rally may already be baked into the markets? What if I could show you that, barring any major economic destruction event, the US Fed and Global Central banks may have unleashed the inflation beast - which could lead to massive Hyperinflation over the next 5+ years? Would you be prepared for it? Would you even believe me if I could show you evidence that it may happen much quicker than you can imagine? And would you believe me if I told you Gold/Silver will rally more than 500% over the next 5+ years while attempting to hedge global debt/inflation risks? Now is the time to prepare for the greatest opportunity of your life. You must understand the structural mechanics of price related to the current global market dynamics. Please boost and share this video with your friends. Everyone needs to be aware of what is likely to happen over the next 5+ years so they can prepare for and profit from these exceptional price trends.
FX:SPX500Education
by BradMatheny
29
Intel - Stop the bleeding!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Intel . -------- Explanation of my video analysis: In the beginning of 2023 Intel stock retested a multi year long horizontal structure at the $26 level. Here Intel created bullish confirmation and took off, creating a crazy rally of +100% within a couple of months. Then we saw a false breakout towards the upside which was followed by an incredible sell off. At the moment Intel is retesting support so we might see a short term short covering rally. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by basictradingtv
28
Chronicle of a Foretold Pump/DumpPump/Dump schema: Discrete Share accumulation. Broadcasted Triggering Event (news, rumors, forums, etc). Gather the mass of "Bagholders". Dump all the load. Pocket the quick profit. I am not a fan of " meme stocks " because they're very much like penny stocks, prone to pump/dump schemes. How legal or illegal is this practice?, it is not us to decide, there are authorities who are supposed to regulate these behaviors. Regardless of the morality of a it we can analyze the radiography of the move. Using the volume bars feature, you can see "big fat" candles on the accumulation phase, the "rumor" phase where the "roaring kitty" name was heard in the news, the spike and immediately took the stock to a quick profit of +120% overnight, and the fade phase, where the only thing that remained at the end was the frozen smile of the hopeful bagholders with a fading volume. #LearnToEarn. Be careful where you put your money, trading and investing requires knowledge of the company, its balance sheet, fundamentals and/or technical metrics. Don't follow the crowd, else you'll end up in the slaughter house. There's no free lunch in Wall St. Let's remember this quote: "The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." Jesse Livermore.
NYSE:AMCEducation
by Madrid
30
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave TheoryGreetings, fellow traders. In this article, we'll be reassessing our annual Elliott Wave counts and going deeper into interpreting Bitcoin's current decade cycle. I'll make sure to segment each part by drawing insights from the previous cycles, also employing the Elliott Wave Theory, and integrating major timeline events to bolster my perspective on Bitcoin's potential trajectory in the upcoming cycle. The wave theory will help neutralize many of the irrational thoughts that other analysts may have that just show straight arrows to the upside. This thesis helps you get a better understanding of where pullbacks and areas of high strength (wave 3 impulses) may occur. Remember, the wave theory will never be perfect in painting the picture, but it will help you be positioned as best as possible with proper invalidation levels. One of the most significant phenomena witnessed in the current financial market landscape is Bitcoin's adherence to a notably algorithmic parabolic trend, where cycles persist in a compounded manner in terms of percentages. This raises the crucial question: "Can we expect all past cycles to mirror the current one?" Answering this is very challenging. However, Bitcoin has one of the strongest strengths against all other coins, which is price history. Fundamentals attached, Bitcoin has been extremely resilient against major events (with wild swings), but the overall trend has remained in tact for over a decade. This indicates not only strength, but true adoption. We must discern whether the price action will evolve into something new or continue the pattern of echoing past cycles (fractals). The most effective method for interpreting Bitcoin's price movements is through the logarithmic chart that is presented in the chart above. When examining past cycles through the lens of only fractals (as that is how it has been for the past decade), the most effective approach to understanding the present cycle is by conceptualizing it as a sequence of nested '1-2' counts. In simpler terms, experiencing a succession of 1-2/1-2/1-2 patterns might lead to either optimistic expectations or impending disappointment. This ambiguity prompts consideration of an alternative bearish perspective, elaborated upon subsequently. Keep in mind, there's always room for firsts, meaning that the failure of the fractal pattern is always a possibility. Again, this idea is further explained in the bearish alternative explanation below. Bearish Alternative: For a more rational approach, the Elliott Wave Theory also suggests alternative pathways. One narrowed down scenario would be that the cycle has now matured, suggesting for a more maturing market with more complexity in corrective types (patterns). The logarithmic chart may indicate a deceleration in the macro timeframe, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently in a maturity phase. Its role as a store of value to say the least. To simply put, the corrections will be far more controlled as investors create larger distribution patterns through the timeline and create demand/sell zones. Price maturity, a concept commonly observed in stock models, implies that markets do not move linearly and eventually reach an endpoint, including in price action. Utilizing the Elliott Wave Theory, we can generate one alternative count that shows the whole cycle is now possibly in a larger 1-2 of some sort: 1. The fact that we have a possible WXYXZ corrective pattern for the 2021-2023 bear market, this may indicate this is part of something larger. Usually, you will see wave 2's have a simple ABC/WXY type patterns. 2. This speculation can then lead us to believe that we could be part of a larger corrective pattern, most likely as a flat pattern now. 3. Consequently, this insight aids in forecasting that we are entering into the new phase of 'market maturity,' or what I like to term as the "flattening of the curve theory." We could debate endlessly about the next bear market for Bitcoin, but the undeniable truth is that over the past 15 years, the market has proven its resilience against political turmoil, hacking attempts, and regulatory crackdowns. It's remarkable to realize that aside from halvings, forks, and institutional adoption, there haven't been any significant bullish events/catalysts. This speaks volumes about Bitcoin's strength. There wasn't any single groundbreaking moment or major catalyst for each bull run. Instead, it was a series of interconnected events that sustained that momentum, leaving it to us as investors to identify distribution points.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
30