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Trading Plan - How To Build it ? (Educational Post)Hi Traders. Today's topic is regarding one of the most important success keys about trading. One thing about trading plans, is that they are yet very easy to build it but no one really know to to build it. Without ABC'S, you can't create words. Without the words, there are no sentences. Without sentences, no paragraphs. No paragraphs, no story. No story , then no idea what's going on. No idea what's going on= GAMBLING Gambling, no consistency. Imagine you're randomly taking trades with any predefined criteria's in long term does it makes sense? The answer is no, most likely you'll stuck in a chugging condition draining your mental capital. Building a trading plan is something that requires good understanding about yourself. Having a trading plan is very personal. What works for someone else can potentially not work for you. Trading plan is something that requires good understanding of criteria's. Your goal as a trader is to find good deals , execute those good deals and let those deals play out. In this post, we'll assume we are creating our a trading plan Scenarios: What Time Frame? This is the typical textbook explanation, where a traders need to focus his attention in 3 types of time frames. One Macro Time Frame to build the scenario , One meso time frame to manage the positions and One Micro Time Frame to execute. One big problem with Time frames is that sometimes traders lose their mind changing from one time frame to another. if that is your case to do not blow your mind focus your attention in 3 predefined time frames. For example an intraday trader can build in daily , manage the position in h4 but execute in m30. What conditions? - This is a rather aggressive criteria's. You must know when to trade and when not to trade. For example trending markets are nice conditions for someone trading pullbacks. Risk Management This may seem easy, but believe or not that majority has issues with the money management. keep it simple . Always risk the same amount and understand that you must have a predefined DD tolerance and exposure. Markets Most retail don't appreciate the ability to stick to one or few pair pairs for years. You Are pretty much guaranteed success. The skill of being in tune with what you are handle is the key of consistency. Does it make sense to follow 20 pairs ? no. Stick to few pairs. Lean how they properly move. Every single pair is unique . The key here is in deciding on a single financial instrument or currency pair. You must become familiar with the way it moves, with when it moves, and with exactly how and where it does it. You need to understand the instrument you are trading and be very familiar with the trading style. The typical range of movements both on an intraday basis and on a weekly basis should be understand. Focusing on one pair allows us to focus our attention on the ultimate goal of trading markets; to generate consistent returns. We do this by attempting to catch a single A to B impulsive movement, preferably from a valid zone. We trade valid signals at valid zones. go on to ten and twenty pairs later. For now, just focus on squeezing a single A to B price movement on a single pair before ever thinking of adding many more.. With the proper seasoning on a certain single instrument, you will become much more confidence with price action and price movements, and trading in general. You will be able to trade in the flow. This is a tricky one . Some utilize Risk-to Reward based target (Eg. 1:3RR), while some prefer using trailing stops. Personally, having your targets at key technical zones make more sense. There's no right or wrong! It all depends on what suits you the most! if the trend is very strong then it doesn't make sense to set a 1:1 set your targets at the next potential obstacle. Entries From my experience, I Have predefined criteria's to define a High probability Trade. It can be a valid micro signal in a valid macro zone in a strong trending market at a strong moment of the day in a institutional numbers when the mass is doing the opposite. I like trending stuff. The first phase is where the momentum is fresh and piping hot, strong impulse with clean price action. the you can easily set further targets by following the long term trend. Strop criteria's. A stop loss is not fixed. the market structure define where to place your invalidation. It can be behind a zone, behind a supply or demand zone or even behind a ema etc... Target criteria's. Let us know in the comment section if there is any other criteria or if I can improve my trading plan. also let us know what criteria's do you use Trade safe as usual. and make sure to support this idea in order to help the TRADINGVIEW COMMUNITY. I hope it was helpful Please do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content. I try to share a lot of value every single day.
Education
by AIRFOREXONE_
16
Bitcoin Traffic Meter -- Down Or Up ?! Hi Trader's -- We Think To Introduce New Type Of Analysis -- We Think To Make ( Traffic Meter ) -- Traffic Meter Will Inform You .. What Is The Direction And Suggest For Next Move -- Red Label Is Down Trend -- Yellow Label Is Side Way Trend ( No Up No Down ) -- Green Label Is Up Trend Every Label Has The % For It Based on Many Tools Of Analysis .. In This Analysis -- We Inform You ( BTC) Traffic Meter -- Down Trend : 45% Side Way : 10 % Up Trend : 45% So We Must Now To Wait And Don't Enter Any Trade Before The Meter Give Us New Sign .. And We Will Update it Daily ♥ If You Want Any Analysis With Traffic Meter Comment With Name Of Pair Or Coin ♥
by Fx_Vanguard
5
GBP/JPY Swing Sell - 190 Pips (19:1 Risk to Reward)Entry: 152.900 (15min) Stop Loss: 153.000 Take Profit: 151.000 Pure Price action and fundamental analysis No Signals, No Indicators, No Fibonacci Retracements Technical Analysis: This GBP/JPY chart is of the 30 minute timeframe, but the entry was taken on the 15 minute with confluence from higher timeframes. Starting from the yearly timeframe, price retested a minor resistance of 152.300 and tried to break bullish. As we drop to lower timeframes such as the quarterly and monthly, the current quarterly and monthly candles flipped bearish (allows the candle to make a bottom wick to grab liquidity and later continue bullish). Weekly timeframe shows that price is trying to generate more liquidity to break past the minor yearly resistance and the 151.000 level is a minor weekly support. So break of the 151 level allows for more sell opportunities. The last two daily candles indicated decrease in volume after the break of the yearly minor resistance of 152.300, which provided further confirmation of sells. The price did not retest the break of the 152.300 on the daily timeframe. As price broke the bottom wick of the previous daily candle, the analysis included an influx of seller's volume to continue bearish. As we continue down to intraday timeframes (4hr, 2hr, 30min), we see price consolidating (generating orders and liquidity) and that indicates incoming volume. Once the price broke below the consolidation zone on the 30min and 15min timeframe, I waited for price to retrace and reject the consolidation zone as the new resistance. Further details of how I managed my trade at each level are indicated on the chart. Fundamental Analysis: The UK economy is starting to open again. On Monday, PM Johnson released details about curbing restrictions for the businesses, pubs, and restaurants. The economy is set to fully open in June. This brings in optimism for GBP, as other developing and under-developed countries continue to struggle with mass vaccination, and even struggling with securing vaccine supplies. However, there is uncertainty about how the government and health-care system will be able to manage the rise in cases after the economy opens (inevitable). Moreover, the government announced a decrease in supply towards the end of the first quarter and the EU halts exports of AstraZeneca (UK-based) to the UK until the EU receives the promised supply of vaccines from the company. Majority of the UK's population has received the first dose and the UK needs to secure more supplies before the partial immunity of the groups who received their first dose a while ago, fades. A recent supporting fundamental has also been the halt of AstraZeneca's vaccine trial in younger children age group.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn4632978
1
How To Properly Use Risk Reward (Education)Hi Traders. Today's topic is regarding one of the most important fundamental risk management principles. Make sure to follow. One thing about Risk Reward, is that they are very decisive in order to make your account grow Imagine you're taking a trade risking 100 dollars to make only 50 dollars does it makes sense in the long Run? The answer is no, most likely you'll stuck in a chugging condition draining your mental capital and having periods of drawdowns. Risk Reward is something requires good understanding of the execution itself, knowing when to not use it, is as equally important as when to use it. In this post, we'll assume the scenarios and answer the most important questions about it. Scenarios: Risk 100 dollars to make 50 dollars or 1 to 0.5 risk reward ratio - This is the typical unprofitable financial decision. Most of the times new traders try to execute trades without even a decent risk reward, they trade just to be presents in the market, despite of the market conditions. In the long run by executing that kind of trades you will end up having heavy periods of drawdown and you will need huge amounts of trades to be back at BE and even more to make money. Risk 100 dollars to make 100 dollars or 1 to 1 risk reward ratio - This is a rather aggressive way to trade. I don't really advise new traders to try to catch that kind of trades. the reason it's because you will need the same amount of trades in profit to be back at BE. this tend to create flat trading equities. I advise to potentially lock one part of the trade if you want. let's imagine this risk reward as a coin. you have two faces and just a 50 % 50% chance. sounds a good deal to make money, looks more like casino. Well it looks like the odds are neutral and they are random distributed. We don't have odds in our favor. Risk 100 dollars to make 200 dollars or 1 to 2 risk reward ratio - Well now things start to become more interesting. Why ? because we have more flexibility to make mistakes and keep the same amount and in certain cases end up in profit. Imagine a random distribution of 3 trades like this ? what will happen if you loose those 3 trades ? you will end up with -3%. what if you are right in those 3 trades ? you will end up with +6%! Risk 100 to make 300 dollars or 1 to 3 risk reward ratio - This is the kind of trade that I advise new traders to focus on. why because it makes profitable equity curves and allows you to make money. Imagine a random distribution of 3 trades . what if you lose the first 2 and you win the last 1 ? you will end up in profit of 1% in this kind of situation you lost the majority of the trades but even like that you end up in profit? sounds crazy right ? well if you focus on trade high probability trades with 1:3 by having right 3 times you can be up 9 % !!! Risk 100 to make 500 dollars or 1 to 5 risk reward ratio This kind of trades are very rare to find but possible. - From my experience by taking a random distribution of 3 trades if you fail the two you will end up with a -2% loss but if you win the last one you will be up 3% what if you win 2 trades with 1:5 ? it will be more like 10% of profit Quick disclaimer : 1. This is just a simple risk modeling example. it is not the real trading situation. In real life your risk distribution can me more like one trade -1 second trade +1.5 third trade 2.5 . In that way you just need to focus on the principles and general ideas to slowly build your risk modelling system. 2. manage your exposure or you will have nothing left to manage 3. Stay away from marketers that tend to say they have a 90% win ratio because they will probably have a 10 % ratio lol... Let us know in the comment section what kind of risk reward do you use or comment a high value idea with us . make sure to follow Trade safe as usual. Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by AIRFOREXONE_
17
GOLD : New bull momentum or pullback? (Comment your Thoughts)Gold price took a further hit on Thursday and Friday, as US Treasury yields on the 10-year note tracked up once more The US 10-year Treasury Note was up 1.18% as of the time of writing, as investors have begun to bet that infrastructure spending plans due to be announced this week by the US government would produce a faster-than-expected economic recovery and drive up inflation expectations. The US President Joe Biden is due to unveil plans of infrastructure spending under his administration, which could see as much as $4 trillion being spent on roads, bridges and initiatives to combat climate change. The initiative could drive up the budget deficits, which would need to be bridged. Issuance of bonds has traditionally been a funding gap used by governments to bridge such deficits, and if this were to be done in the US, the cost of bond notes (bond yields) could rise a lot more. Gold price on the XAU/USD is now pushing higher because of a tecnical support but also a strong risk off a new covid wave in Europe. Personally I was expecting and sharing XAUUSD mouvements and how i'm patiently waiting for gold to hit the next strong zone. check my intraday buy idea in the comment section Are you more bullish or bearish?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AIRFOREXONE_
12
Uptrend VS. Downtrend (Educational Post)hello traders , here's a very quick educational post Bullish Continuation TREND Upwards impulsive move – PAUSE – Upwards impulsive move In this phase supply is weak and market retest demand areas Bearish Continuation TREND Downwards impulsive move – PAUSE – Downwards impulsive move In this phase supply is strong and market retest supply zones . Demand areas are very likely to be broken Train your eyes to see these movements on a chart. When looking for these movements, notice the “pause” or the “ranging” can last for one candle or it can be multiple candles. With practice and application, you will begin to see these patterns and recognize them subconsciously and with little effort. IT'S all about executing buy trades in demand areas in a strong bullish trend and executing sell trades in a supply zone in a strong downtrend
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AIRFOREXONE_
16
Proper Position Sizing (Educational Post)Improper position sizing: That is the number one killer for most traders; they open a position size much larger than they can handle or much larger than what is appropriate for their account size. Before continuing make sure to follow this tradingview profile . A trader’s position size is a very sensitive topic because it should be not too small and not too large; there is a perfect balance between the two that a trader must achieve in order to be able to trade fearlessly. The proper position sizes will allow you as a trader to not only “set”, but to also “forget” and move on with life without being tied to a screen. The most elite traders on the planet allow time, money, and the market to do most of the heavy lifting and they give very little time to sitting on a screen compared to the average retail trader. Any professional trader knows that “less” is “more” in this game, and trading for longer hours does not necessarily equal to “more profits”. Few traders calculate their exposure, and those who do calculate it typically calculate it wrongly. But from those who do calculate their exposure properly, even fewer traders accept their exposure. the acceptance of your exposure, is an entirely different and separate step, and it is a psychological step. You Must find the balance between
Long
by AIRFOREXONE_
10
Supply Anatomy (educational Post)A Sell-Zone or supply zone is a very specific zone where two things are true: 1. A large amount of Sell orders originated there. This just means that, within this Sell-Zone, market makers clicked sell, with the volume of thousands and thousands of lots. 2. A large amount of Sell volume is sitting there. This just means that, within this Sell-Zone, there exists demand for Sell order , if price were to return to this Sell-Zone in the future. This Sell zone or supply can be in the form of existing pre-set limit-orders, as well as new supply of Sell volume that may potentially enter when price returns to this Sell-Zone. Again, The markets are algorithmic, and the buying and selling is nothing more than the initiation of buy programs and sell programs. The majority of the financial markets are almost entirely automated and algorithmic, with very little human interference. This makes them more predictable, but more dangerous
Short
by AIRFOREXONE_
24
Supply Zone & Volume (Educational Psot)Hello Traders, here's an educational post about a supply zone. You don't need to overcomplicate the things a valid supply area is found in trending markets with a sell Order Flow volume very strong. price is making higher lows and lower lows. as you can see at some point price will push the price down. An area with a large amount of sell-orders is called a Sell-Zone, and it has very specific boundaries as we will see. This zone can be considered an area where a large of Sell-OFV was transacted at the origin. The only way the downwards move that occurred could have been created is by the triggering of a large amount of Sell-OFV at the origin of the movement. Somebody important decided that it was EXPENSIVE TO THEM, so they transacted huge volumes of sell-orders. This is area is a great deal for a seller and a terrible deal for a buyer. If the price come back to that level , be sure that they can continue pushing the price down.
Short
by AIRFOREXONE_
27
How Risk Reward Works ? (Educational Post)Hello Traders Before continuing make sure you follow this profile. Let me start off with a scenario that many - if not all has been through. Have you ever had a series of great trades, only to have one trade to burn your whole capital? It's probably everyone - and a guilty embarrassment that many do not want to admit. It's not bad - it's a learning process. AIRFOREXONE is here to talk about how to effectively use stop losses. If you are not using stop losses - you are essentially gambling. You need to learn how to preserve your capital at best. A stop loss is an absolutely vital tool allowing you to limit your losses when you are trying to increase your probabilities using technical analysis . In my opinion, calculated risk is never going to be 100% risk free; however, It is mandatory on every position if you want to keep your money safe (or safer, haha!). Using a stop loss is like an insurance policy. In case the trade is going wrong (which can most definitely happy), you can be sure that a large part of your capital will be safe (again, keyword being large). Now let's Talk about risk reward: Now, how do you place a stop loss? You are assuming that anyone can just use the stop loss tool and adjust the percentages and risk reward ratio to their likings, right? Wrong. You need to know how to place your stop via proper technical analysis , which is discussed below in a simple manner. Assuming you have a good probability set up, a stop loss allows you to sleep peacefully because a stop loss deletes the stress and allows you doing activities other than trading. You don’t need to monitor your trade every 10 minutes. The less you monitor your trade the less you risk to make mistakes. Some people will say that stop loss decreases the winning ratio. This is also absolutely wrong. Again, it is ABSOLUTELY wrong. Many traders argue to get 90%-100% of winning trades. How to place your stop loss: and have a Risk Reward that will make you money? Place your stop loss according to the market price level according to the suggested ratio of 2:1 as shown in the above diagram. Why 2:1? The RR ratio is the difference between the potential loss and the potential profit of your trade, according to your trade setup. You never want to take a trade if your risk/reward ratio is below 1. A RR of 2 and more is one of the key factors in order to become successful in trading. Imagine the insane performance it would be, if every trade you make had a RR of 2 with 80% of winning trades - that is phenomenal. Note that the bigger your risk reward become = more chances to fail and lose less you have. the opposite happens when you risk to win less.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by AIRFOREXONE_
28
Bullish & Bearish Candlestick Strength What exactly is it that causes each uptick or downtick? These are the only two pieces of information that a price chart can express; a down-tick or an up-tick. What causes these tick movements? If you have been led to believe that the prices move depending on the number of buyers and the number of sellers; if the number of buyers is greater than the number of sellers, prices go up, & if the number of sellers is greater than the number of buyers, prices go down. Then you would be wrong. The number of sellers or buyers is not what moves the price. What if one seller is doing all the selling to thousands of buyers? The price will go down. The answer to our question is that it is the degree of aggression of the buyers or the sellers and the volume of order-flow they submit is what moves the price. If a seller is aggressively executing large amounts of sell-orders at the current market price, the price will tick down. If a buyer is aggressively executing large amounts of buy-orders at the current market price, the price will tick up. The volume of the order-flow being transacted is the key. For every buy-order, there must be a sell-order. When the buyer demand exceeds the available supply of sell-orders, the prices increase. When the seller demand exceeds the available supply of buy orders, the price will drop. This entire process is occurring constantly and the market is always trying to reach an equilibrium where buy-orders and sell-orders are continuously matched up to give us the current market price, for that specific moment. The number of individual buyers and sellers is not as important as the amount of order-flow volume that each buyer or seller is transacting. The amount of order-flow volume being transacted at any one time and the aggressiveness of the submitted order-flow is essentially what moves the price. The degree of aggressiveness is the degree to which price will move. That is the story behind the up-ticks and down-ticks. when you see a strong participation you won't see wicks , market makers tend to print engulfing candles. By other side once you start perceiving wicks= rejection. KEEP THIS POST save it a follow us
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AIRFOREXONE_
17
Strenght of Supply Zone ( Educational Post)If you have been led to believe that the prices move depending on the number of buyers and the number of sellers; if the number of buyers is greater than the number of sellers, prices go up, & if the number of sellers is greater than the number of buyers, prices go down. Then you would be wrong. The number of sellers or buyers is not what moves the price. What if one seller is doing all the selling to thousands of buyers? The price will go down. The answer to our question is that it is the degree of aggression of the buyers or the sellers and the volume of order-flow they submit is what moves the price. If a seller is aggressively executing large amounts of sell-orders at the current market price, the price will tick down with a lot of strength. If a buyer is aggressively executing large amounts of buy-orders at the current market price, the price will tick up. The volume of the order-flow being transacted is the key. For every buy-order, there must be a sell-order. When the buyer demand exceeds the available supply of sell-orders, the prices increase. When the seller demand exceeds the available supply of buy orders, the price will drop. This entire process is occurring constantly and the market is always trying to reach an equilibrium where buy-orders and sell-orders are continuously matched up to give us the current market price, for that specific moment. The number of individual buyers and sellers is not as important as the amount of order-flow volume that each buyer or seller is transacting. The amount of order-flow volume being transacted at any one time and the aggressiveness of the submitted order-flow is essentially what moves the price. The degree of aggressiveness is the degree to which price will move. That is the story behind the up-ticks and down-ticks. Strong participation Massive candles in short period of time. Strong aggressiveness Normal Participation Normal trend . normal aggressiveness , normal volatility Weak Participation Weak degree of aggressiveness , weak volatility
Short
by AIRFOREXONE_
20
Supply And Demand Basics (Educational Post)SUPPLY ZONE : has a drop then a base in which we have a lot of accumulation of orders being transacted before the mouvement then we have the breakout and drop and finally the retest. DEMAND has a rally then a base in which we have a lot of accumulation of orders being transacted before the mouvement then we have the breakout and rally and finally the retest. has a drop then a base in which we have a lot of accumulation of orders being transacted before the mouvement then we have the breakout and drop and finally the retest. If you have been led to believe that the prices move depending on the number of buyers and the number of sellers; if the number of buyers is greater than the number of sellers, prices go up, & if the number of sellers is greater than the number of buyers, prices go down. Then you would be wrong. The number of sellers or buyers is not what moves the price. What if one seller is doing all the selling to thousands of buyers? The price will go down. The answer to our question is that it is the degree of aggression of the buyers or the sellers and the volume of order-flow they submit is what moves the price. If a seller is aggressively executing large amounts of sell-orders at the current market price, the price will tick down. If a buyer is aggressively executing large amounts of buy-orders at the current market price, the price will tick up. The volume of the order-flow being transacted is the key. For every buy-order, there must be a sell-order. When the buyer demand exceeds the available supply of sell-orders, the prices increase. When the seller demand exceeds the available supply of buy orders, the price will drop. This entire process is occurring constantly and the market is always trying to reach an equilibrium where buy-orders and sell-orders are continuously matched up to give us the current market price, for that specific moment. The number of individual buyers and sellers is not as important as the amount of order-flow volume that each buyer or seller is transacting. The amount of order-flow volume being transacted at any one time and the aggressiveness of the submitted order-flow is essentially what moves the price. The degree of aggressiveness is the degree to which price will move. That is the story behind the up-ticks and down-ticks.
Long
by AIRFOREXONE_
19