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GRAPHITE INDIA MONTHLY TIME FRAME - MY VIEWThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support..... Tradelikemee Academy Sanjay K G
NSE:GRAPHITELong
by Tradelikemee
2
Why You Should Never Hold on to Your Positions Beyond a CertainGood day, traders. I would like to take this opportunity to advise both new and experienced traders that holding onto your position indefinitely is not recommended. Based on percentage calculations, the return required to recover to break even increases at a considerably faster pace as losses grow in size due to compound interest. After a loss of 10%, a gain of 11% is needed to make up for it. When the loss is 20%, it takes a 25% gain to return to break even. To recover from a 50% loss, a 100% gain is required, and to reach the initial investment value after an 80% loss, a 400% gain is necessary. Investors who experience a bear market must understand that it will take some time to recover, but compounding returns will aid in the process. Consider a bear market where the value drops by 30% and the stock portfolio is only worth 70% of what it was. Suppose the portfolio increases by 10% to reach 77%. The subsequent 10% gains bring it to 84.7%. After two further years of 10% gains, the portfolio reaches its pre-drop value of 102.5%. Consequently, a 30% decline requires a 42% recovery, but a four-year compounding rate of 10% returns the account to profitability. I will be doing a second part of this post on the idea of "DOLLAR COST AVERAGING" (DCA). The math behind stock market losses clearly demonstrates the need for investors to take precautions against significant losses, as depicted in the graphic above. Stop-loss orders to sell stocks or cryptocurrencies that are mental or limit-based exist for a reason. If the market is headed towards a bear market, it will start to pay off once a particular loss threshold is reached. Investors occasionally struggle to sell stocks they enjoy at a loss, but if they can repurchase the stock or cryptocurrency at a lesser cost, they will like it. Never stop learning! I would also appreciate hearing your thoughts and opinions on the topic in the comment section. Thank you.
Education
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
A Basic Guide to Trading a Balanced Volume ProfileBasic Principles of Trading a Balanced Node Rule 1: Unless the price breaks and holds Value High or Value Low we should expect buyers and sellers to maintain the current balance. Rule 2: If we break and re-bid from Period Value High we should treat that level as supportive until it is reclaimed ( buy-side acceptance outside of balance) Rule 3: If we break and push away from Period Value Low we should treat that level as resistance on retest until it is reclaimed (sell-side acceptance outside of balance) Rule 4: If we recover Value Low and it becomes supportive we look for our Period POC and Period Value High as our targets above ( return to balance) Rule 5: If we fail to hold Period Value High and sellers make it resistance on re-offer we look for our Period POC and Period Value Low as targets (return to balance) Balance between Value Low and Value High will remain between buyers & sellers until we see a value shift and acceptance above/below on one of our "edges". Utilizing these rules we can look for opportunities around our Value Edges and have a better understanding how to trade around them.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by TheFinancialCloud
High Volume Times to Trade / Part 2 🔢Hello Traders welcome back to another concept video. This is the second video in our series -- High Volume Times to Trade -- We talk about 1) 4Hr Candle Opens/Closes 2) New York Stock Exchnage Open 3) London Close Scalping/Intra-day trading during these times, in my experience, can provide unique opportunities to profit on Eur/Usd. Similar to Part 1 of our series, these additional times to trade can provide that extra volume for 1) a nice continuation of the preceding trend 2) a short-term reversal of the preceding trend and 3) act as a catalyst for the beginning of a higher timeframe trend
Education
by ShrewdCatfx
5 TIPS FOR SMALL ACCOUNTSHey! When we start trading we want to make a lot of money and became millionaires by the end of month. This awesome motivation could be cut off easily without following simple plan and strategy. When I started trading I entered only with 100$ account and loose it all within a month. I didn’t payed attention to my personal financial plan and rules, which cost me a lot of losses during my first steps in trading. Knowing this 5 tips will help you out if you just started trading and run small account. So, 5 TIPS FOR SMALL ACCOUNTS 1. Follow financial plan, do not go all in. Yeah, to make financial plan you need to study it first, if you are without financial education. DO NOT GO ALL IN, this is not joke, stop it right now! Small is Big in trading, and watch your trades carefully. 2. Trade less instruments, trade less often. Focus. Once again, small is big. Learn one or two assets, learn their nature and regular chart behaviour. This will help you focus and start open profitable trades. 3. Avoid highly volatile assets, trade high volumes. Take one or two big volume assets and start trading on them only. Do not run into forgotten stocks or coins just because they low cost. 4. Use higher timeframes, do not scalp. Most of new traders lose money in first months just because they trying scalping, your emotions going crazy and risks increasing rapidly. Start taking one-two trades per week and see how it will go, this will release pressure and relax. 5. Accept losses, plan how much you can lose. The biggest problem of all traders is to think in percentages about losses, this way will only increase losses. Think about money and plan you affordable loss amount. 👍I appreciate your likes and comments below this post, lets discuss our problems in trading! 💬
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ArShevelev
82
📖 Market Wizards: ResumePublished by Jack D. Schwager in 1989, "Market Wizards" marks the beginning of an indispensable series for traders and investors alike. Through engaging interviews, Schwager brings to light the experiences of titans such as Bruce Kovner, Richard Dennis, Paul Tudor Jones, Michael Steinhardt, Ed Seykota, Marty Schwartz, and Tom Baldwin, making learning from the best an enjoyable journey. To keep things short, we highlighted the most important parts of the interviews and came back with these key takeaways: There is no holy grail to trading success. The methodologies employed by the "market wizards " cover the entire spectrum from purely technical to purely fundamental and everything in between. The time they typically hold a trade ranges from minutes to years. Although the styles of the traders are very different, many common denominators were evident: 1. All those interviewed had a driving desire to become successful traders - in many cases, overcoming significant obstacles to reach their goal. 2. All reflected confidence that they could continue to win over the long run. Almost invariably, they considered their trading as the best and safest investment for their money. 3. Each trader had found a methodology that worked for him and remained true to that approach. Significantly, discipline was the word most frequently mentioned. 4. The top traders take their trading very seriously; most devote a substantial amount of their waking hours to market analysis and trading strategy. 5. Rigid risk control is one of the key elements in the trading strategy of virtually all those interviewed. 6. In a variety of ways, many of the traders stressed the importance of having the patience to wait for the right trading opportunity to present itself. 7. The importance of acting independently of the crowd was a frequently emphasized point. 8. All the top traders understand that losing is part of the game. 9. They all love what they are doing. Below we've gathered a list of opinions from the traders interviewed in the book: 1. Implementation is as IMPORTANT as direction: Getting the direction of the trade right is only part of a successful trade; putting the trade in the right way is critical. 2. You don’t get paid for being right. Many traders fail not so much because of the trades they make when they are wrong, but rather because of the trades they don’t make when they are right. 3. Sometimes it is what you don’t do that counts. “Music is the space between the notes.” – Claude Debussy. Analogously, the space between investments – the times one is out of the market – can be critical to successful investing. 4. Risk Control Many market wizards interviewed in this book consider risk control even more important than the methodology. 5. Trade size can be more important than the entry point. Traders focus almost entirely on where to enter a trade. In reality, the entry size is often more important than the entry price because if the size is too large, a trader will be more likely to exit a good trade on a meaningless adverse price move. Don’t let your greed influence position sizing beyond your comfort level. 6. Don’t try to be 100 percent right. The market is moving against you and you are well aware of the dangers of an unconstrained loss, but you also still believe in your position and you are worried about throwing in the towel before the market turns. You are frozen in indecision. 7. Flexibility is a critical trait. Flexibility is an essential quality to successful trading. It is important not to get attached to an idea and to always be willing to get out of a trade if the price action is inconsistent with your trade hypothesis. 8. The best remedy for a losing streak. When you are in a losing streak, you can’t turn the situation around by trying harder. When trading is going badly, often the best solution is to stop trading for a while. 9. When everything is going great, watch out! The worst drawdowns often come suddenly right on the heels of periods when just about everything seems to be working as well as if it had been optimistically scripted. In this case, a trader will be most susceptible to being lulled into complacency. 10. The market doesn’t care where you entered a trade. Don’t make trading decisions based on where you bought (or sold) a stock or futures contract. The market doesn’t care where you entered your position. A common error traders make when they realize they are in a bad trade is to commit to getting out, but only after the market returns to their entry level – the proverbial “I will get out when I am even”. The linkage of liquidation to entry level is one of the major causes of turning small losses into large ones. In conclusion , "The Market Wizards" by Jack D. Schwager serves as an illuminating guide into the minds and strategies of some of the most successful traders of our time. Through insightful interviews and analysis, Schwager provides invaluable lessons on trading psychology, risk management, and market tactics. However, this is just the beginning of the journey into the world of market mastery. To delve even deeper and expand your understanding, we highly encourage traders to explore the following volumes penned by Schwager: "The New Market Wizards" (1992), "Stock Market Wizards" (2001), "Hedge Fund Market Wizards" (2012), and "The Little Book of Market Wizards" (2014) . These sequels offer a rich tapestry of new interviews, anecdotes, and wisdom from a diverse array of trading luminaries, further enriching your knowledge and empowering your trading endeavors. Whether you're a novice or a seasoned trader, these volumes are indispensable companions on your quest for trading success. Dive in, absorb the wisdom, and let it guide you on your path to becoming a true market wizard.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by financialflagship
The Cores of Price Analysis: Trend Following vs. Mean ReversionIn the world of financial markets, predicting future price movements is akin to unlocking a treasure chest. Two of the most prominent methodologies used by traders and analysts to decipher market movements are Trend Following and Mean Reversion. Each approach offers a unique perspective on how markets behave and provides strategies for capitalizing on this behavior. In this article, we'll dive into the core concepts of these methodologies, explore how they can be implemented, and touch on basic processing techniques like smoothing and normalization, which enhance their effectiveness. Trend Following: Surfing the Market Waves Trend Following is based on the premise that markets move in trends over time, and these trends can be identified and followed to generate profits. The essence of trend following is to "buy high and sell higher" in a bull market, and "sell low and buy back lower" in a bear market. This method relies on the assumption that prices that have been moving in a particular direction will continue to move in that direction until the trend reverses. How to Implement Trend Following 1. Identifying the Trend: The first step is to identify the market trend. This can be done using technical indicators such as moving averages, MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), or ADX (Average Directional Index). For example, a simple strategy might involve buying when the price is above its 200-day moving average and selling when it's below. 2. Entry and Exit Points: Once a trend is identified, the next step is to determine entry and exit points. This could involve using breakout strategies, where trades are entered when the price breaks out of a consolidation pattern, or using momentum indicators to confirm trend strength before entry. 3. Risk Management: Implementing stop-loss orders and adjusting position sizes based on the volatility of the asset are crucial to managing risk in trend-following strategies. Basic Processing Techniques - Smoothing: To reduce market noise and make the trend more discernible, smoothing techniques such as moving averages or exponential smoothing can be applied to price data. - Normalization: This involves scaling price data to a specific range, often to compare the relative performance of different assets or to make the data more compatible with certain technical indicators. Mean Reversion: Betting on the Elastic Band Contrary to trend following, Mean Reversion is based on the idea that prices tend to revert to their mean (average) over time. This methodology operates on the principle that extreme movements in price – either up or down – are likely to revert to the mean, offering profit opportunities. How to Implement Mean Reversion 1. Identifying the Mean: The first step is to determine the mean to which the price is expected to revert. This could be a historical average price, a moving average, or another indicator that serves as a central tendency measure. 2. Identifying Extremes: The next step is to identify when prices have moved significantly away from the mean. This can be done using indicators like Bollinger Bands, RSI (Relative Strength Index), or standard deviation measures. 3. Entry and Exit Points: Trades are typically entered when prices are considered to be at an extreme deviation from the mean, betting on the reversal towards the mean. Exit points are set when prices revert to or near the mean. Basic Processing Techniques - Smoothing: Similar to trend following, smoothing techniques help in clarifying the mean price level by reducing the impact of short-term fluctuations. - Normalization: Especially useful in mean reversion to standardize the deviation of price from the mean, making it easier to identify extremes across different assets or time frames. Conclusion Trend Following and Mean Reversion are two fundamental methodologies in financial market analysis, each with its unique perspective on market movements. By employing these strategies thoughtfully, along with processing techniques like smoothing and normalization, traders and analysts can enhance their understanding of market dynamics and improve their decision-making process. As with any investment strategy, the key to success lies in disciplined implementation, thorough backtesting, and effective risk management.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by AlgoAlpha
Mastering the 70/30 RSI Trading Strategy - Plus Divergences!Mastering the 70/30 RSI Trading Strategy: A Comprehensive Guide The 70/30 RSI technique stands out as a popular and effective method for making informed decisions in the financial markets. Leveraging the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, this strategy empowers traders to navigate the complexities of buying and selling various financial instruments, from stocks to currencies. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of the 70/30 RSI trading strategy, exploring its fundamentals and practical application in forex trading. Understanding the 70/30 RSI Trading Strategy: Developed by renowned technical analyst J. Welles Wilder, the RSI indicator serves as a powerful tool for evaluating market strength and identifying overbought and oversold conditions. With a range from 0 to 100, the RSI provides traders with crucial insights into market dynamics, enabling them to make timely trading decisions. At the heart of the 70/30 RSI strategy lies the establishment of two key threshold levels on the RSI indicator: 70 for overbought conditions and 30 for oversold conditions. These thresholds serve as crucial markers for generating buy or sell signals, offering traders valuable guidance in navigating market trends. ⭐️ Adding and Setting Up the RSI Indicator on Your Chart: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) Indicator is a freely available tool accessible within your TradingView Platform, irrespective of your subscription plan. Whether you're using a Free membership or one of the Premium plans, you can easily find and add this indicator to your charts. Below, I'll guide you through the process of adding and customizing the RSI indicator on your platform with the help of the following images. To begin adding the RSI indicator to your chart:👇 You can also customize the colors to your preference, just like I did by selecting your favorite ones.👇 Now, let's delve into what the RSI indicator is and how to interpret it. Interpreting RSI Signals: In essence, an RSI reading of 30 or lower signals an oversold market, suggesting that the prevailing downtrend may be ripe for reversal, presenting an opportunity to buy. Conversely, a reading of 70 or higher indicates overbought conditions, implying that the ongoing uptrend may be nearing exhaustion, presenting an opportunity to sell. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) Explained: As a momentum indicator, the RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes, providing traders with insights into whether a security is overvalued or undervalued. Displayed as an oscillator on a scale of zero to 100, the RSI not only identifies overbought and oversold conditions but also highlights potential trend reversals or corrective pullbacks in a security's price. Practical Application of the RSI Strategy: Traders employing the 70/30 RSI strategy must exercise caution, as sudden and sharp price movements can lead to false signals. While RSI readings of 70 or above indicate overbought conditions and readings of 30 or less indicate oversold conditions, traders must consider additional factors and use other technical indicators to validate signals and avoid premature trades. Let's examine a few examples. Example No. 1: EUR/USD Daily Timeframe On the EUR/USD daily timeframe, we observed an overbought condition indicated by the RSI rising above the 70 level. This signaled a potential reversal in price direction. Subsequently, the price indeed reversed, confirming the overbought scenario. It's crucial to emphasize that while scenarios above the 70 RSI level or below the 30 RSI level suggest potential reversals in price, it's essential to complement your analysis with additional filters. These may include consideration of the economic environment, effective risk management strategies, and identification of triggers or patterns before initiating a trade. Below, I'll illustrate a potential trigger that aligns with the RSI 70/30 strategy: the crossover of the RSI line with the RSI-based moving average (MA). Example No. 2: In this example, the RSI strategy proved effective as we observed the price falling below the 30 level, indicating potential oversold conditions and a forthcoming reversal from the market's potential bottom. Additionally, in the image below, you'll notice the introduction of white lines, known as "divergences." I'll provide a clearer explanation of divergences in the next example. Example No. 3: In this example, denoted as circle N.3, we encounter another instance of the RSI reaching the 70 level, indicating an overbought condition. Once again, the strategy proves effective, but this time, we notice a shallower reversal compared to the previous two examples. Following this reversal, the price experiences growth, presenting a new opportunity for traders with a subsequent higher high. However, unlike before, this high does not breach the 70 RSI level, resulting in a deeper reversal. This scenario exemplifies a "divergence." But what exactly is divergence trading? Divergence trading revolves around the concept of higher highs and lower lows. When the price achieves higher highs, you would expect the oscillator (in this case, the RSI) to also record higher highs. Conversely, if the price makes lower lows, you anticipate the oscillator to follow suit, registering lower lows as well. When they fail to synchronize, with the price and the oscillator moving in opposite directions, divergence occurs, hence the term "divergence trading." I'm confident that the previous three examples were well explained to help you understand the 70/30 RSI strategy, along with the MA moving average trigger and the relative divergence strategy. Please share your thoughts in the comment section below. Key Considerations and Limitations: While the 70/30 RSI strategy offers valuable insights into market dynamics, traders must remain mindful of its limitations. True reversal signals can be rare and challenging to identify, necessitating a comprehensive approach that incorporates other technical indicators and aligns with the long-term trend. In Conclusion: The 70/30 RSI trading strategy represents a powerful framework for navigating the complexities of the financial markets. By leveraging the insights provided by the RSI indicator, traders can make well-informed decisions, identify lucrative trading opportunities, and optimize their trading strategies for success in various market conditions.
Education
by FOREXN1
15
Smart Money Concept: A Focus on Liquidity and Trade ExecutionSmart Money Concepts (SMC) empower traders to understand the invisible hand of institutional players ("smart money") in markets. By analyzing liquidity, the lifeblood of price movements, SMC equips you to anticipate potential breakouts and identify high-probability entry points. Let's dive into key concepts: Liquidity Types: ● ERL (External Range Liquidity) : Areas of past significant price swings (highs and lows), attracting orders and potentially acting as support/resistance. Look at Previous Day/Week/Month H/Ls and Previous Trading Sessions H/Ls (Aisa, London, & NY) ● IRL (Internal Range Liquidity) : Areas within the current trading range where the price paused or reversed, indicating potential order clusters, like FVGs. Price moves from one Liquidity Zone (ERL) to the other (IRL) & vice versa! Price Zones: ● Premium/Discount Array : Based on the recent price leg, calculate the 50% midpoint (fair value) and extend 50% above and below to create a high-probability trading zone in regards to where the price should be going next, for example, if the price is in the lower part of the recent leg, then we should expect a move back into the Premium Array. Highs & Lows: ● LTH/LTL (Long Term High/Low) : Turning points over longer timeframes, often acting as strong magnets for price. ● ITH/ITL (Intermediary Term High/Low): Significant swing points, usually highest / lowest point when the price reaches an imbalance zone. ● STH/STL (Short Term High/Low): Recent swing points within the current trading range, acting as potential pivots, you will find those on both sides of the ITL/L. Identifying Imbalances: ● Gaps: Unfilled price spaces suggest imbalanced supply/demand, potentially leading to price retracements to fill the gap. ● FVG (Fair Value Gaps): Areas where price gapped through support/resistance, leaving an "unfair" imbalance, attracting corrective moves to rebalance price. Trade Execution: ● OTE (Optimal Trade Entry): Look for confluences of various SMC elements (liquidity zones, imbalances, price patterns) for high-probability entry points that match the 61.8 / 70 Fibonacci levels. ● Kill Zones: Increased volatility during major market openings (London, New York) can offer high-risk, high-reward opportunities. This is when you should be trading! Remember: ● SMC is a complex framework, master each element before combining them for strategic analysis. ● Backtest and paper trade your SMC strategies to build confidence before risking real capital. ● Market dynamics are fluid, adapt your analysis and trade execution based on evolving price action. By understanding these SMC concepts and their interplay with liquidity, you'll gain a good understanding of market movements and improve your trade execution. Remember, practice, patience, and disciplined risk management are crucial for success in any trading strategy.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by financialflagship
IRM ENERGY 240 MINS TIME FRAMEThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support.... Tradelikemee Academy
NSE:IRMENERGYLong
by Tradelikemee
1
[EDU] 3 quick tips when to cut your losses short in tradingHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. We all don't like or don't want to have a losing trade. But this is inevitable in trading, we have to face it. And, Letting your winning run and cutting your losers short has always been the mantra for profitable trading. This is where I wanted to share 3 ways that you can go about doing this. When market structure that you anticipated for the setup is violated. So what it meant over here is that ,for example, you have a trade entered upon the crossover of a particular pair of EMA, e.g. 50 and 100. Once the crossover flips, you should look to exit the trade. Or, when your pre-determined stop-loss is hit, and, you should never pull your stoploss. This is quite self-explanatory because the pulling of stoploss level can get you lucky a few times but making it a habit can have disastrous impact to your trading. Thirdly, Negative price action. This happens when the price action has consistently moved against your trade, meaning to say that constantly you are in the red (losing money). This could be an indication for you to re-evaluate your setup and move on by cutting your losses small if need be. This is especially true if you have noticed that trades that you are in green often validate your entry almost immediately and have positive price actions. Hope these pointers help you better evaluate the trades you are in and make the best decisions out of it! Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Education
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
[EDU] 4 Numbers You should Know so to be Profitable in FX Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Here are 4 numbers you should know so that you can become profitable in FX Trading: *Check out the Formula in the Chart picture* Position Size Determine the appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance, account equity, and the distance to your stop-loss level. Ensures that you are risking a consistent percentage of your trading capital on each trade. Risk and Reward Ratio Helps you assess the potential reward relative to the risk in a trade. Margin Level This Represents the ratio of account equity to used margin, expressed as a percentage. It helps you assess the health of your trading account and whether you have sufficient margin to cover your positions. Pip Value (in USD Terms) Its represents the monetary value of a single pip movement in the currency pair. Understanding the potential profit or loss in a trade and is dependent on the position size, pip increment, and exchange rate. These calculations provide essential insights into risk management, trade analysis, and account performance. Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Education
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
What is the best XAUUSD trading strategy?When it comes to trading XAUUSD (Gold/US Dollar), there’s no one-size-fits-all strategy. The “best” approach is highly individual, depending on your trading style, risk tolerance, and personal preferences. In this article, we will explore four popular trading strategies for XAUUSD: Trend Trading Breakout and Retest Trading Swing Trading Scalp Day Trading We will consider strategy pros and cons, trader personality factors, highest potential yield, stop losses and other lifestyle factors. 📈 Trend Trading The concept of this strategy involves identifying and following the prevailing trend in the XAUUSD market. Traders buy when the trend is upward (bullish) and sell or short-sell during a downward (bearish) trend. The main focus is to capture gains through large movements rather than small fluctuations. Trend Trading uses technical indicators like moving averages, trendlines, or MACD to identify trends and enter trades. Pros: Following the dominant trend in XAUUSD can lead to significant profits, especially in strong, sustained market movements. It’s relatively easier to identify and follow trends, making it suitable for both beginners and experienced traders. By trading with the trend, traders potentially reduce their risk exposure. Cons: Trend traders might enter a trade after a trend has been established, potentially missing early profits. Misidentifying a trend can lead to losses, especially in volatile markets. This strategy requires patience, as holding positions for longer periods can lead to substantial drawdowns during retracements. Suited personality: Ideal for patient individuals who are comfortable with holding XAUUSD positions for longer durations. 📈 Breakout and Retest Trading For breakout and retesting, traders look for moments when XAUUSD price breaks out of its typical trading range or surpasses a significant resistance or support level. This strategy capitalizes on the momentum that follows a breakout. A retest phase, where the price returns to the breakout point, often serves as the entry point. Breakout and retest trading use chart patterns and volume indicators to identify potential breakouts and confirm their strength. Pros: Traders can capitalize on new trends early, potentially increasing profits. This strategy provides clear signals for entry (breakout) and exit (retest failure). It works well in various market conditions, especially during high volatility periods. Cons: Traders may encounter false signals, leading to premature entries and losses. This strategy demands rapid responses to market changes, which can be stressful. Setting stop-losses can be challenging, particularly in volatile markets. Suited personality: Breakout and retest trading is best for decisive traders who can act quickly and are comfortable with a higher level of risk and uncertainty with Gold. 📈 Swing Trading Swing traders hold positions in the XAUUSD market for several days or weeks to capture gains from short- to medium-term price movements or “swings.” This approach balances between the longer-term view of trend trading and the short-term nature of day trading. Swing trading uses a combination of technical analysis and a basic understanding of market fundamentals to identify potential swing opportunities. Pros: Requires less screen time than day trading, allowing for a more balanced lifestyle. Swing traders take advantage of market “swings” or short-term trends, often leading to substantial gains. Allows for diversification of trades over different time frames and assets. Cons: Positions might have to be held through periods of adverse market movements. This strategy needs a good understanding of market fundamentals and technical analysis. Holding positions overnight can expose traders to unexpected market events. Suited personality: Ideal for gold traders who have the patience to wait for the right opportunity, and are comfortable with holding positions for several days. 📈 Scalp Trading Scalping involves making numerous, rapid trades on small price changes in the XAUUSD market, accumulating profit from these minor fluctuations. Scalp trades are held for a very short duration, often just minutes, and require quick decision-making and execution. This strategy has a strong focus on liquidity, volatility, and using smaller time-frames like one-minute to fifteen-minute charts for precise entry and exit points. Pros: Scalpers can make numerous trades in a day, accumulating profits from small price movements. Short holding periods reduce exposure to large market movements. Offers an engaging and dynamic trading experience Cons: Requires constant market monitoring and quick decision-making throughout your trading period, however your trading period could be as little as 1 hour a day. Risk to reward per trade are typically smaller as many scalping strategies aim for a 1:1 to 1:3 risk to reward Suited personality: Scalping is best suited for people who can make quick, decisive moves. It’s most suitable for personalities who like to do highly focused work in small burst time periods and for traders who don’t want to hold positions overnight. Which XAUUSD Strategy Gives The Highest Yield? Determining which XAUUSD trading strategy can provide the highest yield and profits is a complex question and highly dependent on market conditions, the trader’s skill level, risk management, and the ability to consistently execute the strategy. However, we can explore theoretical scenarios for each trading style using a $10,000 trading account over a 6-month period, with each trade risking 1% from a stop loss. We will also consider the compounding effects of growing a trading account and trading Gold exclusively. 📈 Trend Trading Yield Potential: Moderate to High Trend trading can yield substantial returns over time, especially in strong, consistent market trends. Scenario Example: Assuming a conservative estimate of 3% profit per successful trade. With 10 good trend-following trades over 6 months and compounding gains, the overall profit could be substantial. However, the growth rate would be slower compared to scalp trading due to fewer trades and a longer holding period. 📈 Breakout and Retest Trading Yield Potential: Moderate This strategy can be profitable in volatile markets, but it may offer lower compounding effects due to fewer trades compared to scalping. Scenario Example: Assuming an average profit of 2% per successful trade and around 15 trades over 6 months. The compounding effect would be present but less dramatic than scalping due to fewer trades and potentially more varied outcomes. 📈 Swing Trading Yield Potential: Moderate Swing trading can offer good returns, especially if large swings are captured, but the compounding effect is less pronounced due to the longer duration of trades. Scenario Example: With an average of 4% gain per successful trade and about 8 trades over 6 months. The compounding effect would contribute to growth, but the overall yield would be less compared to scalp trading due to the lower number of trades and slower turnover of capital. 📈 Scalp Trading Yield Potential: Very High Scalping, with its high frequency and quick profit opportunities, offers the highest yield potential, especially when compounded. Scenario Example: Assume an average gain of 1.5% per trade, with 2 trades each day. Trading 20 days a month, this results in 40 trades per month. With compounding, each win adds more to the account balance, which then increases the amount risked (and potentially gained) in each subsequent trade. Over 6 months, this compounding effect, coupled with a consistent win rate, could significantly amplify the initial $10,000 investment, potentially doubling it or more, depending on the exact win rate and consistency of the trader. Considering all of the above strategies, scalp trading shows the highest potential for compounded yield due to its high frequency, larger per-trade gains and ongoing compounding effects. It also requires a high level of skill and consistency. Each XAUUSD trading style has its own risk-reward balance and compounding potential, and the choice should align with the trader’s capabilities, risk tolerance, and trading goals. Stop Loss Considerations for XAUUSD Trading Strategies These trading styles each have its unique characteristics that can influence the likelihood of hitting a stop loss. When a stop loss is hit, your current position is closed instantly, ending the trade, resulting a loss. Understanding these following factors is crucial for effective risk management and XAUUSD strategy selection. 📈 Trend Trading Delayed Entry Trend traders often enter a trade after a trend is established, which can increase the risk of a reversal hitting the stop loss. Length of Trends If a trend unexpectedly shortens or reverses, stop losses may be hit more frequently, especially in highly volatile markets. Drawdowns During Retracements Trends often have retracements. If the XAUUSD retracement is deeper than expected, it might hit the stop loss before resuming the trend. 📈 Breakout and Retest Trading False Breakouts A common risk in breakout trading is the occurrence of false breakouts, where the price breaks a key level but then quickly reverses, often hitting the stop loss. Volatility Spikes Around breakout points, volatility can spike, which can cause prices to fluctuate rapidly and hit stop losses unexpectedly. Re-test Failure If the price fails to re-test successfully and instead reverses quickly, it can lead to hitting the stop loss. 📈 Swing Trading Overnight and Weekend Risk XAUUSD swing trades are often held for several days, exposing them to overnight and weekend risks where gaps can occur, potentially hitting stop losses. Market News and Events Swing traders might be more exposed to the impact of scheduled economic events or unexpected news, which can cause sudden market moves. Changing Market Sentiment As swing trading involves a longer time frame, a shift in market sentiment or trend can lead to stop losses being hit before the anticipated move materializes. 📈 Scalp Trading Rapid Price Fluctuations Given the short time frame of XAUUSD scalp trades, rapid and unexpected price movements can easily hit tight stop losses. Spread and Slippage In scalp trading, the cost of the spread and potential slippage can be significant relative to the trade size, increasing the likelihood of hitting the stop loss. It’s important to trade with a broker with low spreads Market Noise Scalp trading is often affected by market noise (random price fluctuations), which can trigger stop losses more frequently compared to other styles. Each trading style has its specific factors that can lead to the triggering of stop losses. Understanding these can help in refining stop loss placement, strategy selection, and overall risk management. Best XAUUSD Strategies Based On The Trader So we’ve finally made it to our key breakdowns and suggestions based on trader preferences. Based on the various aspects of XAUUSD trading strategies we’ve explored above, here are some suggestions tailored to different types of traders and objectives. 👤 What is the best XAUUSD trading strategy for beginners? Trend trading is generally the most suitable for beginners. This style’s relative simplicity in identifying trends and its emphasis on patience and discipline provide a solid foundation for new traders. It allows beginners to understand market dynamics without the pressure of making rapid decisions. This is not to say that beginner traders can’t start their trading journey with other strategies. 👤 What is the best XAUUSD trading strategy for advanced traders? Scalp Trading is the most suited gold trading style for advanced traders. It requires quick decision-making, an in-depth understanding of market movements, and the ability to handle high-stress situations effectively. Advanced traders are typically better equipped to handle the fast movements of scalp trading, including the rigorous discipline and risk management it entails. Scalp trading XAUUSD often becomes the natural progression of a gold trader. 👤 What is the best XAUUSD trading strategy for the highest potential yield? When executed effectively, scalp trading offers the highest potential yield. It capitalizes on small, frequent price movements, allowing skilled traders to accumulate gains rapidly. However, it’s important to note that this high potential yield comes with increased risk and requires a significant amount of skill, experience, and psychological fortitude. 👤 What is the best XAUUSD trading strategy for people who want structure in their day? Scalp trading can provide a structured trading day due to its high-frequency nature. It requires a trader to be active and focused during specific market hours. If you prefer a structured environment, and want to “work” only during certain hours and in short bursts, scalp trading offers this consistency. This can also provide freedom off the charts outside of your main scalping hours. 👤 Best XAUUSD trading strategy for people who want freedom away from screens? For individuals seeking more freedom and less time glued to the screen, swing trading is suitable. It doesn’t require constant market monitoring and allows for trades to be held over several days or weeks. This approach provides more flexibility and free time, fitting well for those who value a less intense trading lifestyle. The downside is that there are far less trades meaning you could experience weeks or months with no profits, and also illiquid access to any profits made. Scalping is a second alternative for freedom away from screens, especially for scalpers who aim to make 1 to 2 trades a day over a short time period then spend the rest of their day doing non-trading related activities. 📈 Best Overall XAUUSD Trading Strategy Scalp trading stands out to us as the best XAUUSD trading strategy for these reasons: Highest potential yield based on compounding gains Ideal for both advanced traders and beginners (who are committed to learning) Ideal for structure of your day and trading during specific hours Ideal for traders seeking freedom outside of their screens by not holding on to open positions while they are away from their screens Ideal for full-time job salary replacement in terms of liquid access to profits due to more frequent trades (Of course, this is performance dependent!) For traders who have the necessary skills, discipline, and experience, scalp trading can be extremely rewarding and profitable. It offers a dynamic trading environment and the potential for high returns. If you’re looking to scalp gold, it’s crucial that we emphasize that it requires a high level of education and mentorship before you commence scalping. Beginners are advised to start with the right foundations which we can teach you and provide a solid and stable learning curve to your scalping journey.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by opes_trading_group
Navigating Markets with Gann Fans: A Step-by-Step GuideWelcome to our comprehensive tutorial on placing and utilizing Gann Fans. In this step-by-step guide, we'll dive into the practical aspects of Gann Fans, a powerful tool for assessing non-horizontal support in resistance for technical analysis. We will thoroughly explain how Gann Fans are placed and what pitfalls to avoid when placing them. Whether you're new to Gann Fans or looking to enhance your trading strategy, this video provides actionable insights and a real-world example to help you harness the potential of Gann Fans with confidence. Join us as we demystify Gann Fans and empower you to navigate market swings with precision and skill.
Education
by LeafAlgo
4
A New Year Special - 1hour Free Zoom SessionHello All, I will be holding a short, 1 hour sharing with Zack, a feng shui master , where we will be sharing on the mentioned in the flyer above. I will be covering some important things to take note of for your trading and sharing how I look for trades etc! Zack will be sharing his view on the outlook of the world in 2024 and some discussions on Zodiacs! Hope to have a Huat huat year ahead! Date: 31 Jan 2024 Time: 730pm SG time (GMT +8) Venue: Zoom If you are keen ,do sign up using the link below! forms.gle An email for the Zoom session will be sent to you. Thank you and see you!😬🥶😉
NYSE:BA
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Trading BTC : Dunning Kruger Effect 🐸Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 Have you ever wondered what it takes to be a good and profitable trader? Have you wondered how long it will take before you would have mastered the art f trading? Myself and Dunning Kruger will let you in on a little secret - the journey of pretty much every person that has ever started trading is explained in the chart above. The Dunning-Kruger effect, in psychology, is a cognitive bias whereby people with limited knowledge (in a given intellectual or social domain) greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence in that domain relative to objective criteria or to the performance of their peers or of people in general. This happens in trading all the time. In fact, we probably all started there if we're being honest . So - What causes the Dunning-Kruger effect? Confidence is so highly prized that many people would rather pretend to be smart or skilled than risk looking inadequate and losing face. Even smart people can be affected by the Dunning-Kruger effect because having intelligence isn’t the same thing as learning and developing a specific skill. Many individuals mistakenly believe that their experience and skills in one particular area are transferable to another. Many people would describe themselves as above average in intelligence, humor, and a variety of skills. They can’t accurately judge their own competence, because they lack metacognition, or the ability to step back and examine oneself objectively. In fact, those who are the least skilled are also the most likely to overestimate their abilities. This also relates to their ability to judge how well they are doing their work, hobbies, etc. The Dunning-Kruger effect results in what’s known as a double curse : Not only do people perform poorly, but they are not self-aware enough to judge themselves accurately—and are thus unlikely to learn and grow. So how can we prevent ourselves from falling into this trap? Here's a few things to keep in mind: To avoid falling prey to the Dunning-Kruger effect, you should honestly and routinely question your knowledge base and the conclusions you draw, rather than blindly accepting them. As David Dunning proposes, people can be their own devil’s advocates, by challenging themselves to probe how they might possibly be wrong. Individuals could also escape the trap by seeking others whose expertise can help cover their own blind spots, such as turning to a colleague or friend for advice or constructive criticism. Continuing to study a specific subject will also bring one’s capacity into a clearer focus. 💭Practice these habits to ultimately escape the double curse: - Continuous learning. This will keep your mindset open to new possibilities, whilst increasing your knowledge over time. - Pay attention to who's talking about what. Is the accountant talking about bodybuilding? - Don't be overconfident. This is self explanatory. I hope you enjoyed this post today! Please give us a thumbs up 👌 _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Education
by CryptoCheck-
58
Tips To Become A Better TraderBecoming the consistently successful trader you aspire to be requires the creation of a new version of yourself, akin to a sculptor crafting a model. The attainment of financial success is a byproduct of acquiring and mastering specific mental skills. Embracing the mantra "I am a consistently successful trader" entails prioritizing consistency over any other rationale for engaging in trading. To achieve this, it is crucial to recognize that the extent of your success is directly tied to your ability to minimize the assumption of future market movements. Seven key beliefs guide the path to consistency: 1. Objectively identifying edges. 2. Predefining the risk for each trade. 3. Accepting the risk or gracefully exiting trades. 4. Executing trades confidently based on identified edges. 5. Appropriately compensating oneself as profits materialize. 6. Continuously monitoring susceptibility to errors. 7. Recognizing the absolute necessity of consistent success principles and adhering to them unwaveringly. Trust in oneself is paramount, as susceptibility to errors rooted in rationalization, justification, hesitation, hope, and impatience can undermine success. A future projection of a successful trader necessitates growth into that role, recognizing and addressing common problems such as an unwillingness to create rules, failure to take responsibility, and addiction to random rewards. The development of a trader mindset unfolds in three stages: 1. Mechanical stage: Building self-trust, flawless execution of a trading system, thinking in probabilities, and fostering unshakeable belief in consistency. 2. Subjective stage: Utilizing learned market insights freely. 3. Intuitive stage: Operating on intuition. Trading involves meticulous steps: 1. Choosing a market. 2. Defining edge variables precisely. 3. Executing trades based on rigid system parameters. 4. Determining stop-loss exits based on market structure. 5. Selecting a consistent time frame for all signals. 6. Scaling out of winning positions with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. 7. Rigorous testing of chosen variables for effectiveness. In summary, success in trading lies not only in mastering market knowledge but, more crucially, in cultivating a disciplined mindset and adhering to proven principles.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by opes_trading_group
3
DAY TRADING WHILE HOLDING A 9-5 JOBDAY TRADING WHILE HOLDING A 9-5 JOB Embarking on the exciting journey of day trading while managing the demands of a full-time job is indeed a challenging yet achievable endeavor. Thanks to the rise of user-friendly mobile applications offered by trading platforms, individuals now have the power to execute trades seamlessly from various locations. This creates an opportunity for those with traditional 9-5 jobs to actively participate in the dynamic world of day trading. Let's explore the practical aspects of day trading while maintaining a 9-5 job, discovering strategies and considerations that can enhance your ability to strike a harmonious balance between your professional life and the enticing financial markets. Day Trading With A 9-5 Job: Engaging in day trading while juggling a full-time job is not only feasible but also a thrilling adventure. The availability of robust mobile applications has made it possible to trade conveniently from different locations, allowing individuals with office hours to participate in the excitement of day trading. Several factors contribute to the viability of day trading alongside a regular job. Firstly, the accessibility of markets on a 24/7 basis provides flexibility. The forex market operates continuously from Monday to Friday, enabling individuals with office hours to trade after work. Additionally, cryptocurrencies trade around the clock, and some platforms have introduced extended stock trading hours from Monday to Friday. Strategies like swing trading and position trading offer alternatives for individuals unable to actively day trade. These approaches involve setting predetermined Stop Loss and Take Profit levels, allowing traders to initiate trades and await favorable outcomes over longer periods. For stock traders, focusing on pre-market and extended-hours trading is a viable strategy. The pre-market session, beginning at 4 AM ET, extends until the regular session commences at 9 AM, and extended-hours trading continues beyond the regular session. Why You Should Not Day Trade At Work: While day trading with a full-time job is plausible, certain pitfalls make it less than ideal. Successful day trading demands substantial time, concentration, and dedication, aspects often hindered by professional commitments. The need for consistent market analysis, risk evaluation, and timely trade execution can be challenging to fulfill amidst the demands of a 9-5 job. Engaging in day trading during working hours may also impact productivity and mental well-being. Maintaining a high level of workplace productivity and a positive demeanor is crucial for professionals, and day trading disruptions, especially in the face of losses, can adversely affect these aspects. Mental fatigue, stress, and depression are significant concerns for day traders. The demanding nature of the activity, coupled with potential losses, can contribute to a negative impact on one's mental health. This, in turn, may lead to reduced workplace productivity and strained personal relationships. Furthermore, the comprehensive research required for effective day trading, including technical and fundamental analysis, and sentimental and price action analysis, may be challenging to undertake alongside a demanding job. Professions such as healthcare, finance, and real estate may leave little room for the in-depth analysis needed for successful day trading. Best Strategies For Day Trading With A 9-5 Job Successfully managing day trading alongside a 9-5 job requires a strategic approach to ensure optimal results without compromising professional responsibilities. Here are some effective strategies for individuals seeking to seamlessly integrate day trading into their daily work routine: After-Hours Trading: Leverage the extended trading hours available in the evenings after the regular workday. Focus on markets like cryptocurrencies, which operate 24/7, or utilize platforms offering extended stock trading hours. Swing Trading: Embrace the swing trading strategy that allows traders to capture short to medium-term price movements. This approach requires less frequent monitoring, making it suitable for those with limited time during the workday. Algorithmic Trading: Explore algorithmic trading using automated systems or expert advisors. While demanding thorough testing, these systems can execute trades on your behalf, freeing you from constant market monitoring. Pre-Market and Extended Hours Focus: Concentrate on pre-market and extended-hours trading, especially if dealing with stocks. This allows you to engage in market activities before and after regular working hours. Strategic Breaks: Schedule breaks during the workday for brief market check-ins. Use this time to assess market conditions, manage existing trades, and stay informed about potential opportunities. Set Clear Trading Goals: Establish realistic trading goals that align with your work schedule. Define specific time frames for market analysis, trade execution, and review to maintain a disciplined and organized approach. Utilize Limit Orders: Reduce the need for constant monitoring by implementing limit orders. Set predetermined entry and exit points, allowing trades to execute automatically when market conditions align with your strategy. By incorporating these strategies, individuals can strike a balance between day trading and a 9-5 job, optimizing opportunities while minimizing the impact on professional responsibilities. In conclusion.. In the intricate dance between day trading and the demands of a 9-5 job, finding equilibrium is an art. Technological strides have offered a bridge, enabling individuals to traverse the realms of financial markets while anchored in full-time employment. Yet, the fragility of this balance necessitates a nuanced understanding of its implications. The potential trade-offs — be it in productivity, mental well-being, or the relentless demand for in-depth research — underscore the gravity of this endeavor. As we navigate the dual responsibilities of day trading and professional life, thoughtful consideration and strategic planning emerge as our guiding lights. In this dynamic landscape, success lies not just in seizing market opportunities but in orchestrating a harmonious symphony between financial aspirations and the structured cadence of a 9-5 routine. I hope this article will give you some nice thoughts before opening your charts while you are working. Happy trading!
Education
by FOREXN1
2
2024 Investment OutlookIntroduction The current economic landscape is marked by higher interest rates and increased volatility, a departure from the stability observed in the decade following the global financial crisis. Unlike before, central banks face challenges in stabilizing economies due to production constraints and tougher trade-offs in addressing inflation versus supporting growth. The evolving economic environment is shaped by structural factors such as shrinking workforces, geopolitical fragmentation, and the low-carbon transition. The prevailing uncertainty has led to a disconnect between cyclical narratives and structural realities, contributing to market volatility. Despite apparent U.S. economic growth, it reflects a recovery from the pandemic shock rather than robust expansion. The key implication is persistently higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions, prompting a need for a more active portfolio approach. In this new regime, macro insights are expected to be valuable, with greater volatility and return dispersion creating opportunities for investment expertise. Context is everything In 2023, hopes for a soft landing in the U.S. economy have been fueled by robust growth in the third quarter, a significant decline in core inflation, and the creation of nearly 7 million jobs since January 2022. However, taking a broader perspective reveals that the economy is still recovering from the pandemic, with job gains largely recouping those lost during the initial impact. Despite strong job growth, overall economic activity has been below pre-pandemic expectations, averaging less than 1.8% annual growth since the pandemic. The key insight is that a structural change has occurred, leading to a weaker growth path accompanied by higher inflation, increased interest rates, and elevated debt levels. The advice for investors is to focus on how the economy and markets are adjusting to this new regime rather than relying on a typical cyclical playbook, as the traditional approach may be misguided. Managing Macro Risk Investors are advised to neutralize macro exposures or, with high conviction, deliberately choose exposures. Analyst estimates for S&P 500 equity earnings show increased dispersion, emphasizing the potential rewards for macro insight. Despite the adjustment to structurally higher inflation and policy rates, markets vary in their response. The uneven adjustment is highlighted by factors such as surging U.S. 10-year yields compared to relatively unchanged DM equity earnings yields. This adjustment is considered more critical than the possibility of a technical recession, warranting caution on broad exposures. The long-term risk of higher inflation increases if borrowing costs remain elevated, potentially surpassing spending on Medicare in the future. A rise in term premium and expectations of increased yield volatility led to a tactical neutral stance and a strategic underweight position in long-term U.S. Treasuries. The preferred strategic overweight is in inflation-linked bonds. Harnessing mega forces The concept of mega forces offers a strategic approach to steering portfolios, focusing on building blocks that go beyond traditional asset classes. These forces, seen as independent drivers of corporate profits, provide potential opportunities that may be uncorrelated with macro cycles. Mega forces, such as digital disruption and artificial intelligence (AI), are already reshaping markets, as demonstrated by the outperformance of U.S. tech compared to the broader market. The winners and losers in the mega forces landscape can influence tactical views, impacting stances on developed market equities even in less favorable macroeconomic conditions. Embracing mega forces is presented as a means for investors to outperform static allocations, leveraging the far-reaching consequences that create new investment opportunities. Examples include private credit filling the lending void due to capital pressures on banks, demographic shifts shaping production and growth limitations, and the emergence of climate resilience as an investment theme within the low-carbon transition. AI intelligence revolution Advances in computing hardware and deep learning have marked an inflection point for Artificial Intelligence (AI) since late 2022, with expectations of exponential progress in innovation. While tracking AI investment opportunities across geographies and sectors involves high uncertainty, a technology "stack" approach is suggested to assess these opportunities. The stack includes cloud infrastructure and chips as the foundational layer, followed by models, data, and data infrastructure, and finally, applications that harness innovation. The tech industry, particularly led by major tech firms, is seen pivoting toward AI, indicating the potential for an intelligence revolution. The current position is perceived to be between the first and second layers of the technology stack, with the last layer anticipated to follow. This shift has implications beyond near-term productivity gains. Early research suggests a positive correlation between increased AI patents and broad earnings growth, indicating rising economic value attributed to these patents. Despite uncertainties surrounding the future value of AI patents and their translation into profitable enterprises, there is an overweight recommendation on the AI theme in developed market stocks for the next six to twelve months. The tech sector's earnings resilience is expected to persist, serving as a significant driver of overall U.S. corporate profit growth in 2024. Investing in climate resilience The emphasis of this chapter is on helping investors navigate the risks and opportunities associated with the energy transition. Beyond renewables, traditional energy companies can also outperform, especially during supply-demand mismatches. While the energy transition often dominates headlines, a related and crucial investment theme is climate resilience. This involves preparing for, adapting to, and withstanding climate hazards, as well as rebuilding after climate damage. Climate resilience encompasses various solutions like early monitoring systems, air conditioning to address heatwaves, and retrofitting buildings for better weather resistance. Given the anticipated increase in climate damages, significant investment is required to enhance society's resilience. The economic impact of climate damages is growing rapidly, and there is a rising demand for products and services that contribute to climate resilience. This theme is identified as potentially becoming a mainstream investment theme over time. The three sub-themes within climate resilience—assessing and quantifying risks, managing risk, and rebuilding physical infrastructure—create a framework to identify opportunities across sectors (such as industrials and technology) and asset classes. Deepening fragmentation Cascading crises have accelerated global fragmentation and the emergence of competing geopolitical and economic blocs. Countries like Vietnam, Mexico, the Gulf states, India, and Brazil are seen as potential beneficiaries of supply chain diversification, establishing ties with multiple blocs, and possessing valuable resources. In this more competitive global landscape, a surge of investment in strategic sectors such as technology, energy, defense, and infrastructure is expected. Opportunities also exist in firms specializing in managing and reducing cybersecurity risks. Increased geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine tensions, and structural competition between the U.S. and China are acknowledged. The current global situation is characterized by the highest number of volatile situations in decades, according to the UN. The year 2024 is anticipated to be the biggest election year in history, with the U.S. and Taiwan elections deemed particularly significant. Navigating this new world order requires holistic portfolio strategies that aim to both seize opportunities and mitigate risks, rather than focusing solely on avoiding risks or positioning for specific events. Conclusion Our core conviction is that investors need to be more dynamic with portfolios in the new regime. The outlook for 2024 suggests that investors should take a proactive stance, avoiding autopilot investing. The advice is to be intentional in managing portfolio risk, with an expectation of deploying more risk over the next year.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by financialflagship
TA vs FA - Do price forecasts offer value for traders? This came up in a conversation I had recently with a client, who asked if I agreed with the view that we’re in for another good year for equities based on the current median forecast of 4832 (source Bloomberg), with the range of 19 analyst calls set between 4200 to 5200. For starters let’s revisit the 2023-year-end call on the S&P500 made back in Dec 2022, where the median forecast was 4075 – 17% below the actual closing level in Dec 2023 of 4769.83. There was only one analyst – Tom Lee (Fundstrat) - who was anywhere near the final closing level, and at the time he was widely ridiculed for his uber-bullish call. We can also take the early forecast by Soc Gen, who had a 3650 call on the S&P500 by year-end. This proved to be wildly incorrect, but the call was ultimately revised higher throughout the year, and after tweaking the forecast to 4750 on 9 November, now looks like a hero. I'm not in the business of mocking bad calls, and understand most analysts are loath to make these forecasts but are required to do so. It's clearly very hard to do, and requires some degree of luck, where a lot needs to go right to be on the money. The math behind an index price target The basic logic for creating a year-end forecast is to firstly model a forward price to earnings (P/E) multiple that is deemed to be fair – we do this by forecasting factors such as where US bond yields will be at year-end, as well as the potential level of ERP (equity risk premium). We then need to model our earnings-per-share (EPS) assumptions for year-end. In 2023 the median estimate was for S&P500 earnings at $210, which actually wasn’t terrible a call. We can then multiply our EPS forecast by the fair forward PE multiple and you have a price target. As it stands, the median fair future PE ratio is 20.7x and the 2024 EPS assumption at $232.2 – so the median consensus is around 4813. Sound complicated? It certainly needs some study, but in many ways, this is the crux of many fundamental models which attempt to model a ‘fair value’ and hope the market can move towards that price over time. Perhaps the buy-and-hold investor crowd can find some value from targets, but then you have a plethora of sell-side analysts to follow – choosing one often plays into one’s own directional bias, where the thesis for getting to that endpoint reinforces one’s own belief systems. Some will also consider the analyst's pedigree and form in prior years and feel they are reading the tea leaves well. Forecasts can also be useful for multi-asset investors who look at expected returns. Where expected returns often dictate one’s portfolio composition and whether they’re underweight or overweight a specific asset class or sector. Where these models typically fall down is that they rarely account for human behaviour, emotion and structural flows. For traders, the analyst’s thesis (behind the forecast) can be helpful, as some of the trends and risks expressed can help us identify the future trading environment and event risks of note. However, I don’t know of any trader who has made money using forecasts. Not only is a year an eternity for traders, but it’s the price (P) element of the PE ratio that has driven equity markets through 2023. Where multiple expansion (a rising PE ratio without earnings growth) has been driven by funds happy to pay an ever-higher price, with active managers chasing returns, a more compelling perception of central bank liquidity, as well as bullish structural flows derived from options dealers hedging their gamma exposure, volatility-targeting funds, and CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) reacting to the one-way rally in price. Technical vs fundamental analysis? This is where technical analysis (TA) is often far superior for traders, as the principle is premised on reacting to flows and the aggregation of all decisions being made within a timeframe. While TA is a broad practice, at its heart it’s less about prediction, but offers key insights and understanding of how market participants feel at any one time. TA and price action is the best barometer of sentiment, and it helps us understand the distribution of outcomes for price. We can partly explain much of the rally in US equity from late October on the fall in US real rates, increased rate cut expectations and resilient US growth dynamics. But what really propelled the various equity indices to see some incredible returns was falling realized volatility, options hedging flows – made even more prevalent through the rise and rise of 0DTE options – and CTAs going max long in S&P500 and NAS100 futures. Few fundamental models account for this. At the end of the day, it's what works for you, and if you’ve made money following price targets then ignore everything I’ve said – it’s simply my observations. Yet, while a lot of these flows are quite opaque, we can see them front and centre in the price action – that – in so many ways it tells you all you need to know.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone