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Gold pullback to 2625-2640 zone. Feels like its going up today. If I got pre-emptive about an hour ago calling for Long-gold at 2655 or thereabouts, if that got you a stop out then my sincerest feeling for you and I would like to make it up to you. I have to literally pinch myself every time I take a trade here in currency or patricuarlly gold, becaues volume is reduced until London opens for business. Anyway I will be looking to perform a Long trade here a bit later, but with 1 trade already down and that position I put a Stop-on and I exited the trade at 0.5194 I think it was. Another chart here the 4HR. Gold has now made a fairly deep and up and down move since Thursday, causing just the right about of volatility and momentum to fire-up a deep 4hr reversal trade. These work on depth, generally the deeper the better to get that spring back through 30 on the RSI and 20 on Stochastic's, both are great, standard settings. To confirm that the long trade is the real deal I will be looking for a big spike in volume, increaasing more than 50 momentum on Rsi and/or 20 on Stochastics'. But the best way to pul the trigger on a deep RSI reversal trade is to do all of the above monitoring good increases in momentum and volume, watch only as it passed above 30 / 20 on the Oscillators and on a lowertimeframe I suggest a 3 minute chart setup an EMA 9 and EMA 50 and BUY GOLD when the 9EMA bullishly crosses up and over the 50. Higher the time frame the stronger this Cross becomes but its the lower time frames where all of the action begins. The most accurate winning strategy for this type of trade would be on the daily but its a bit early for that big TF. Buy the pullback in Gold. Watch for LIVE divergence on the 4HR for things like price bottoming and in the volatility is on the up and up in oscillators like RSI/STOCH/MACHd. SL under a swing low on a 5 min timeframe. TP 2680 is the final target. Take partial profits at the tops of zones.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
2
Hunting for the Next 1000X Cryptocurrency:A Statistical AnalysisThe cryptocurrency world is a gold rush for dreamers chasing life-changing gains. With stories of tokens skyrocketing in value, the appeal is undeniable. But here’s the reality: with over 5,300 new tokens hitting the market daily in 2024, as reported by CoinGecko, your odds of finding the next PEPE, BONK, or SHIBAINU are incredibly slim. Most new cryptocurrencies fail within months, and many are scams designed to drain your wallet. Let’s break down the numbers and the challenges of uncovering a gem amidst the flood. The Numbers: New Tokens and Their Survival Rate By April 2024, over 540,000 tokens had already been launched — a staggering number. Yet, very few will ever succeed. Here’s a snapshot of the harsh realities: Failure Rates: Around 80-90% of new tokens fail in their first year. This is often due to lack of purpose, poor adoption, or outright abandonment. Rug-Pulls: A worrying number of tokens—about 10-15%, based on data from CertiK—are rug-pulls. This means developers vanish after pocketing investors' money. Breakout Tokens: The odds of hitting it big are microscopic. In 2023, fewer than 50 tokens out of 830,000 reached 1000X growth, showing just how rare these success stories are. What Does It Take to Achieve 1000X Growth? For a token to grow 1000X, its market cap needs to multiply by 1,000. Achieving this requires a combination of: Early Entry: You must buy in at the lowest prices, often during presales or right after launch. Massive Hype or Demand: Whether through meme-driven excitement or actual utility, the token must capture the market’s attention. Smart Tokenomics: Low supply or deflationary mechanisms can push prices sky-high. The Odds of Finding the Next Moonshot Let’s do some quick math: Total Tokens Launched in 2024: With 5,300 tokens a day, around 2 million tokens were launched this year. Success Rate for 1000X Growth: If fewer than 50 tokens reached 1000X in 2023, your chance of finding one is about 0.0026%, or 1 in 38,000. The jump to 10,000X is even harder, requiring not just perfect timing but incredible luck and sustained demand. In short, it’s like playing the lottery but with higher stakes and more scams. The Risks You’re Up Against Rug-Pulls and Scams Some tokens are outright traps. Be wary of: - Anonymous teams with no verifiable background. - Projects making outrageous promises. - Lack of liquidity locks or audits. Market Overload With millions of tokens flooding the market, standing out is harder than ever. Speculative Hype Even promising projects can implode if their growth is built solely on speculation, as seen with many memecoin fads. How to Improve Your Odds While the odds are stacked against you, there are ways to tip the scales slightly in your favor: - Do Your Homework: Look for projects with clear value, experienced teams, and a real use case. - Follow Trends: Emerging sectors like AI, GameFi, or decentralized sience are hot spots for innovation. - Track Launch Platforms: Presale platforms and launchpads can be a good source of vetted tokens. - Diversify: Spread your investments across multiple tokens to lower risk. - Set Limits: Never invest more than you’re prepared to lose. Final Thoughts Chasing the next 1000X token in today’s crowded crypto market is an uphill battle. While success stories like PEPE make headlines, the reality is that most tokens fail, and many investors lose money. The key is to stay realistic, do thorough research, and focus on long-term, informed decisions. The crypto market rewards patience and strategy far more than blind luck. Good hunting!
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
Comprehensive Guide to Bull and Bear Flag PatternsBull and bear flag patterns are some of the most reliable and widely used chart patterns in technical analysis. These patterns are particularly effective for traders who prefer trading with the trend, offering clear entry and exit points. They appear frequently in trending markets and represent short consolidations before the trend resumes. In this guide, we’ll cover the characteristics of bull and bear flags, trading strategies, and how to enhance your flag trading using multi-timeframe analysis. What Are Bull and Bear Flag Patterns? Bull and bear flags are continuation patterns, meaning they signal the potential for a price move to continue in the direction of the prior trend after a brief consolidation or retracement. Bull Flag: This pattern occurs during an uptrend. After a sharp rise in price (the flagpole), the price begins to consolidate within a downward-sloping channel (the flag). A breakout to the upside typically follows, continuing the trend. Bear Flag: In a downtrend, after a strong decline (the flagpole), the price consolidates in an upward-sloping channel (the flag). When the price breaks downward, it continues the downtrend. These patterns are valuable for traders as they provide clear entry signals when the price breaks out of the flag's consolidation range. Anatomy of a Flag Pattern The flag pattern consists of two main components: The Flagpole: This is the sharp price movement that occurs in the direction of the trend. It signifies strong momentum and establishes the direction in which the trend is moving. The Flag: The flag is a period of consolidation or retracement that follows the flagpole. The price moves within parallel or slightly converging trendlines and typically retraces about 30% to 50% of the flagpole. The flag represents a pause in the market before the trend resumes. Key Characteristics: Bullish Flag: Occurs in an uptrend, and the consolidation takes place in a downward-sloping channel. Bearish Flag: Occurs in a downtrend, and the consolidation takes place in an upward-sloping channel. Volume (if you trade Crypto or stocks) tends to decrease during the consolidation phase and increases significantly at the breakout point, confirming the continuation of the trend. Trading Strategies for Bull and Bear Flags While bull and bear flags are relatively simple to identify, using different strategies can help enhance the effectiveness of trades. Here’s a breakdown of the most effective approaches to trading these patterns: 1. Breakout Strategy The breakout strategy is a straightforward approach that traders use to enter a position when the price breaks out of the flag's consolidation. This marks the continuation of the trend and offers a high-probability setup. Entry: Enter the trade when the price breaks above the upper trendline of a bull flag or below the lower trendline of a bear flag. Stop-Loss: Place the stop just outside the flag’s opposite boundary (below the flag for bull flags or above for bear flags). Take-Profit: Measure the length of the flagpole and project it from the breakout point. This will give you a target for where the price could potentially move. 2. Multi-Timeframe Strategy The multi-timeframe strategy involves using multiple timeframes to analyze the flag pattern. This strategy can provide a more robust confirmation for entering the trade, as it gives you a broader perspective on the overall trend. Higher Timeframe Analysis: Begin by analyzing a higher timeframe (e.g., the daily chart). Look for a strong trend, either bullish or bearish, and identify if a flag pattern is forming within this trend. Lower Timeframe Confirmation: Once the pattern is identified on the higher timeframe, zoom in on a lower timeframe (e.g., the 1-hour or 4-hour chart) for precise entry points. Look for the price to break out of the flag pattern on the lower timeframe, confirming the trend continuation. Why Use This Strategy? Multi-timeframe analysis reduces the risk of false breakouts by confirming the broader trend on a higher timeframe. It allows you to refine your entries by using a lower timeframe for greater precision. Note: A critical benefit of this strategy is its ability to significantly enhance the risk-to-reward (R:R) ratio, with the example presented achieving an impressive 1:5 ratio. This means that for every unit of risk taken, the potential reward is five times greater—a highly efficient use of capital and risk management. 3. Pullback Entry Strategy The pullback entry strategy offers a more conservative approach to trading flag patterns. Instead of entering at the initial breakout, this strategy waits for a pullback toward the breakout level to confirm the trend’s continuation. Entry: Enter the trade after the breakout has occurred but wait for the price to pull back to the flag’s trendline. This pullback gives you a better risk-to-reward ratio. Stop-Loss: Place the stop just below the flag’s trendline for a bull flag or above it for a bear flag. Take-Profit: As with the breakout strategy, project the flagpole's length from the breakout point for your target. When Not to Trade Flag Patterns While flag patterns are reliable, they are not always guaranteed to work. There are specific conditions when you should avoid trading them: Choppy or Sideways Markets: Flags perform best in trending markets. If the market is choppy or moving sideways, flag patterns are less likely to lead to a strong breakout. Weak Flags: If the flag's consolidation is too broad or the market loses momentum during the consolidation, the breakout may be weak or fail altogether. Conclusion Bull and bear flag patterns are essential tools in any trader's toolkit, offering high-probability setups in trending markets. By understanding how to spot them, applying different trading strategies, and incorporating multi-timeframe analysis, traders can enhance their chances of success. Final Tip: Always combine flag patterns with good risk management techniques, such as proper stop-loss placement and positive risk:reward.
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
8
The Importance of Stop Loss and Emotional Discipline in TradingThe Importance of Stop Loss and Emotional Discipline in Trading “The market doesn’t care about your emotions; it follows its own rules.” One of the most critical aspects of successful trading is setting a stop loss and sticking to it. Here's why: Protect Your Capital Trading without a stop loss is like driving without brakes. A stop loss helps limit your losses and keeps your trading capital safe for future opportunities. Stay Disciplined Many traders make the mistake of moving their stop loss further away out of fear of being stopped out. This is a slippery slope that can lead to even larger losses. Stick to your plan, no matter what. Remove Emotions from Trading Fear and greed are your worst enemies. By predefining your stop loss, you eliminate emotional decision-making in the heat of the moment. Focus on Risk Management Before entering a trade, always ask yourself: What’s my risk-reward ratio? How much am I willing to lose if the trade goes against me? Learn to Accept Losses Losses are a natural part of trading. A stop loss isn’t a failure; it’s a tool to protect you and keep you in the game for the long term. Key Tip: Never remove your stop loss hoping the market will “come back.” Hope is not a strategy—discipline and planning are. Let your emotions stay out of your trades. Protect your capital, trade your plan, and let the market do the rest.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by WaveRiders2
1
Reading the charts and Learning Techno-Funda Analysis. We will continue our weekly study of reading charts Today we will try to understand how to read the chart of Reliance Industries and learn how to make assumptions based on the same. First thing that one must understand that reading the charts is not a rocket science. One has to be creative, attentive and a sort of meditative while reading a chart. When you keep looking at it with focus and keep on asking the question and reasoning behind the moves you will definitely get your answers. Thus by asking the question to the chart and by observing the chart and searching fo the answers by noticing the patterns, historic layouts, supports, resistances and applying certain amount of basic maths and common sense one can come to know about the risk is to reward ratio in buying a stock or a derivative. Let us have a look at the Weekly chart of Reliance Industries. Remember we are not recommending this stock we are learning how to read the chart. The purpose of article was is purely Educational. The First thing that I observe here is that trend line provided the stock is moving in a particular parallel channel. Many of the stocks do move in channels. Reliance hit the channel top at 1608 and has been correcting and searching for bottom ever since. The low that it made was 1217 where it found a support at a trend line. After that it again tried to move upwards but faced a resistance near 1316 and corrected again this week until it found a support on the same trend line today at 1239 and bounced again to close the day and week at 1272.85. Again the resistances for reliance will be near 1316, 1355 and then 1380. 1380 will be a difficult resistance to conquer as it is the 50 Weeks EMA or the Mother line of weekly chart. 1380 currently also happens to be the mid channel resistance. Making it again a difficult resistnace to conquer. Above 1380 Reliance becomes very strong and can go to 1442, 1530 and 1602. Channel top seems to be at 1770. Supports for Reliance seems to be at 1241, 1218 and the zone between 1174 and 1181. This zone seems to be a very strong support as 1181 is 200 Weeks EMA and 1174 is the channel bottom support. So in all likely hood in case there is a closing below 1241 this is the zone where the stock can end up. MACD is in the negative zone but it is starting to turn towards positive zone. However there is still some distance to go before the moving averages converge and becomes positive. RSI of the stock 35.37 and looks bearish. RSI support zone can be the zone around 30. Fundamentally Reliance as we all know is one of the premier Indian company with a market cap of Rs.1722468.1 Cr. Price to Earning ratio of the stock is 25.6 which can be considered moderate valuation. Negative aspects of Reliance are that promoter holding of the stock decreased slightly by 0.1%. Net cash flow is again a slight issue currently alsong with fall in QonQ revenue. Positive aspects of the company are that Net profit has grown along with profit margins QonQ. Reliance is a company with low debt. Reliance has Zero promoter pledge. MFs have increased their shareholding in last quarter. Why I mentioned the fundamentals of the stock here is because when you buy a stock you need to look at the Fundamentals of the stocks along with Technical analysis. That is Techno-Funda analysis of a stock in true sense. I sincerely hope that this write-up will help you in reading the charts, understanding the importance of charts and understanding fundamentals of the company. These aspects are necessary for you to becoming a better investor. For more such snippets of knowledge please keep reading my Smart Investment, Smart Bonanza and Smart Plus articles. I also have a youtube channel by the name of Happy Candles Investment. You can also find me on X by the handle @candles_happy. For in-depth understanding of Techno-Funda investing you can read my book which is The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation. This book is available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version. The book contains valuable tips for you to maximise your profits from stock market and wealth creation. It also explains my much coveted Mother, Father and Small Child Theory. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. There is also chance of bias in our opinion. I, my family or my clients may have a long position in the stock. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:RELIANCE
by Happy_Candles_Investment
USOUSD Oil Long bets. Moving up slowly but surely. Daily TF. The intraday chart around the 1hr and 2hr is a tad hectic with double / triple top, so the daily chart here has a triple bottom for structure support and a head'n' shoulders pattern which I dont think has triggered quite yet. This trade I recommended on Monday for a long position and these price levels are a bit of a bargain. If you wanted to buy in I would be buying the closing candle at 69.20 1 HR chart below. Price is just a nudge under 69 now
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
A good value Gold buy, following GBPUSD sell XAUUSD folded under pressure from GBPUSD sell off about 2 or 3 hours ago following Great Britains's GDP results which did not support the Pound but rather the USD. Price wound back from mid 90s to about 70s (early 70s). A double bottom has formed on TF's 5m through to 2hr. Basically, gold found support at yesterdays selling low and support level. 2673 at the time of writing. On a supported level with multiple double tops. But there may be continued selling into GBPUSD which could drag gold lower. But I think it will hold at these levels > 2670. SL a must in such volatility around 2667. TP at or near todays's high back to mid 90s. Note: Trading gold is risky, but the gold price should be buzzing along higher next week on any impending US interest rate reduction, which you've got to realise is almost in the bag of occurring and at least 0.25% reduction. Guys second chart is a look at the last reversal trade from RSI & Stochastics Momentum Index for a bit of light n shade from the usual Stochastic's, which the plain one is as accurate as the RSI & run for the hills on these newer Stochastic's and RSI's which hog all of your screen and do not deliver accurately. Settings can be crunched but who has the time for that. Follow this chart to the last vertical broken yellow line to see how this trade gave 10,000 pips not 100. Cheers, Chris easy_explosive_trading on X. In this instance, you would need to wait for RSI to push through the 30 RSI level and wait until your candle close ideally, it depends on whether you've climbed back over key levels for confirmation. The SMI you'll be looking for the pretty pink line to turn upwards and cross above -40. Good luck on 10,000 pips. It happened last time.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
It's Make Or Break in less than 1HR for GBPUSD. Check back. If there is 1 pair that has caused some up-down-up-down crazy, frustrating, manipulated-maybe price-action, stealing the show the past month or so would be GBPUSD. Further falls over the past 16 hours or so, with USD$ rallying following CPI data for USA. Well now its Great Britain's turn with the data in less than an hour. GDP is being released in the UK. This is what it all entails for the Pound to bounce or fail further falls. I am tipping the former. au.investing.com 18:00 GBP Construction Output (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% 0.1% 18:00 GBP U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Oct) 0.0% -0.4% 18:00 GBP GDP (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% -0.1% 18:00 GBP GDP (YoY) (Oct) 1.6% 1.0% 18:00 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% -0.5% 18:00 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) 0.2% -1.8% 18:00 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Oct) 0.9% -0.7% 18:00 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% -1.0% 18:00 GBP Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Oct) 0.2% 0.1% 18:00 GBP Trade Balance (Oct) -16.10B -16.32B 18:00 GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (Oct) -5.31B Check back and I will give my impressions of 'sides' & possible trading action to take.
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
OZE$ breakout on Chin.Yuan: AUDCNH. Updates here. The AUD getting a good bounce from a very oversold AUDCNH. Price has rally'd and has formed a Top2 on 1HR. Look I think this is taking a bit of the wind out of the sails. I expect it to break-upwards again soon and it will short circuit this double top on 1hr. My feeling is that the horse has bolted and this will breakout much bigger today across all sessions. I will keep you updated as I am a full-time trader, holding positions for various times, but principally I am a day-trader with a swing trading strategy. It varies. 15m chart CHOCH
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
AUDCHF recent price history whilst in oversold Cond. It's the big banks who are ultimately buying very low and riding the bigger waves. Here in the daily chart for AUDCHF and its recent price history whilst generally getting hammered lower into the oversold condition. Money can be made deep and low in price here, but it will only work if you get it deeply oversold around recent price history, where it has popped. Other supporting confluence of why this needs to turnaround in price is also needed. For example, what is the path of least resistance on other timeframes. Its probably a trade for more risk and more reward, if that sounds like you then check out the daily chart of AUDCHF. The way to trade it apart from the timing, is to bet with a small lot size, you don't want to come under notice betting for example 5 Lots, you will probably get hammered lower if you get in at the wrong time.
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Why GBPNZD Longs are just getting started I wrote about a turnaround for GBPNZD about 10 days ago, buyers could be seen coming back into the pair. Then I went back a few months to the last bears-rally passed back to the bulls in GBPNZD and it could be seen that is was a fast and clean transition back to the bulls. So I have not looked at the chart much lately, until of course today. But here is why I bought back in after taking all profits recently; The MACD Daily, the best one for reliability and these cross-ups are accurate but market-makers at the big banks know of their existence but of course price would never be manipulated by anyone to throw retail traders off the scent. Anyway, you can see here in the daily chart the uptick in the volume analysis, yellow lines & then green lines still longer than previous, that all timed wonderfully well for the MACD crossing up to the sky's and my guess is soon price of GBPUSD will power across the triple top and beyond 2.20. Finally, here are a couple more charts. 1HR and then Monthly
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Analysing USDX' recent history. Insight into causes of rally. The chart is a about 2.5 years of weekly pricing of the US Dollar Index USDX. Simply, illustrating 3 examples of positive divergence for the Dollar and why the $-rally has grown to such an enormous force here at the end of 2024. My analysis left me wondering about the high to lower-high on RSI which over the same 2.5 years led to a higher high recorded in 2024 (recently), positive RSI divergence, which should correlate to even higher USD Dollar rally's at the start of 2025. But instead, clearly seen in the RSI chart, the recent withdrawal of the RSI from the USDX from overbought territory in the RSI and retreating back to a level well under 70. But I see a reversal-swing back into overbought territory on the RSI > 70 causing more momentum back into the Dollar and this increase back into overbought / outperforming would be consistent with the bullish RSI divergence outlined last above, which cals for an even higher USDX. It would not surprise me to see the USDX climb to 111 during 2025. Why? How? If you look across at the corresponding historical weekly candle you will find the 7 Nov 22 weekly candle which is a big candle and it closed at 111. It makes me wonder about Gold's direction. Bullish but capped somewhat until the Dollar finishes its upwards move. This will also occur in 2025 when the Dollar will eventually retreat as historically evidenced here in the USDX RSI weekly. It shows severe overselling and the resultant bull-rally to the opposite where the dollar outperforms/overbought and eventually has to correct its pricing by becoming less overbought. All can be seen in the weekly RSI chart.
EIGHTCAP:USDXLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
When Investing Turns into GamblingThe distinction between high-risk investing and gambling is a nuanced topic that draws considerable debate among financial experts and everyday investors alike. At what point does a bold investing strategy transition into a gamble? This question is particularly pertinent as more individuals explore the world of trading, often with little experience or understanding of complex financial instruments. Understanding Gambling Gambling, at its core, involves wagering something of value on uncertain events with the hope of attaining a greater reward. The term is rooted in the Old English word ‘gamenian,’ which conveys the idea of playfulness or merriment. While this historical context hints at leisure, modern associations with gambling primarily lean towards casino games and sports betting—activities that often prioritize entertainment over profit. Legally and socially, gambling is characterized by three fundamental elements: consideration (the wager), chance, and prize. It is primarily the element of chance that fundamentally separates gambling from investing as a disciplined practice. Read Also: Characteristics of High-Risk Investing High-risk investing manifests in various forms and is typically characterized by volatile assets, leveraged positions, and intricate financial tools. Examples include CFDs, options trading, and short-selling. While these strategies can yield impressive returns, they come with heightened risks and the possibility of substantial losses, particularly for those who are inexperienced. The key difference between gambling and investing generally hinges on skill versus chance. Professional CFD traders may acknowledge the unpredictability involved but can also apply strategic approaches to increase their chances of success. This skill component is often what investors cling to, differentiating their methodical approaches from pure gambling. Read Also: Psychological Drivers Behind High-Risk Investing The psychological dynamics involved in high-risk investing bear significant similarities to gambling behaviors. A prominent factor is the dopamine rush associated with successful trades—an exhilarating feeling that can become addictive. While such responses are often embraced in gambling environments, they must be regulated in investing to prevent detrimental decision-making. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) also plays a crucial role in driving investors toward risky trades. In our social media-saturated era, tales of sudden wealth can instigate impulsive behaviors, propelling individuals into investments without adequate research or risk assessment. Overconfidence bias is another pitfall; novice investors may overestimate their ability to navigate markets, often resulting in shallow analysis and misguided decisions. Coupled with loss aversion—the tendency to feel losses more acutely than equivalent gains—these cognitive biases can lead to irrational choices, mirroring behaviors common in problem gambling. Read Also: Perception vs. Reality The interplay between perception and reality complicates the discourse around high-risk investing. Many individuals erroneously equate their financial activities solely with mastery over skill and chance. However, overconfidence can mislead beginners into adopting complex strategies without a robust understanding of the underlying mechanics. While they may perceive their actions as investments, outsiders may recognize them as reliance on sheer luck, categorizing such behaviors as gambling. Emerging asset classes, like cryptocurrencies, add another layer of complexity. Their relative novelty means that market participants often lack the historical data necessary to inform sophisticated strategies, resulting in some deeming these investments as mere gambling. The Importance of Self-Awareness Ultimately, self-awareness emerges as a crucial aspect of distinguishing between high-risk investing and gambling. Understanding personal motivations is vital; the riskiness of an asset alone does not dictate its categorization. Allowing emotions to override a carefully charted financial strategy is indicative of gambling-like behavior. Similarly, employing untested or misunderstood strategies can signal a drift away from genuine investment practices toward a gambling mentality. Read Also: Final Thoughts In the realm of finance, it is essential to maintain a clear bifurcation between calculated investing and haphazard gambling. Self-awareness, comprehensive research, and a disciplined approach to risk management are key to ensuring that individuals engage in sound investment practices, rather than crossing over into the unpredictable territory of gambling. Individuals must strive to understand the nuances of their financial choices, recognizing when the line is blurred and committing to informed decision-making. Only then can they navigate the market landscape with confidence and prudence. Read Also: ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Education
by FOREXN1
1
Gold? Nothing much lately.That's what made me check. Bulls I don't follow the news much these days, but the safe haven thingy is not going away, Middle-east, Russia, North Korea, it seems to be the cool thing for a leader to do is start a war. Enter the Gold-price & its safe haven attributes. I had written Gold off the last few days, doing its daily up and down liquidity checks and price not moving much on Friday. You will see in the chart on the 30m that gold recently parted ways from a wedge pattern, price moved aggressively south for about 100% move of the width of the wedge, then it moved aggressively north and stopped well north of its exit from the wedge and then made a perfect 38.2% retracement. So what happened next. Well price has accumulated around this level and price is beautifully above VWAP and the 200ema. All 3 charts have confluence setups for bulls. But here is what I don't like. One moment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
THE CYCLE OF MARKET EMOTIONSWhen delving into the world of trading, one pivotal aspect often overlooked is psychology. In trading, we engage in two distinct psychological aspects: the collective psychology of the trading community and our unique mindset as individual traders. While we cannot change the psychology of the masses, understanding it is crucial. Equally important is the necessity to reflect on and, if needed, adjust our own psychological framework. In this article, we will primarily focus on the psychology of the individual trader. The Complex Nature of Trading As an aspiring trader, sooner or later, you will come to appreciate that the intricacies of trading go far beyond merely analyzing charts and fundamental data. It’s a common belief that a majority of new traders—around 80%—will face failure early on. If you haven’t experienced failure yet, consider yourself fortunate, and prepare for the inevitable realization: many of your trading challenges stem from within. One of the most significant emotional hurdles traders face is fear—fear of missing opportunities, fear of losing money, fear of leaving profits untapped, and fear of making mistakes. If you wish to thrive in this field, overcoming these fears is essential. The Weight of Fear Throughout our lives, we’re conditioned to avoid being wrong and to strive to secure our finances. However, trading operates on a different frequency. Many traders dedicate their time solely to identifying promising trades. Once they enter a position, they often experience a tumultuous rollercoaster of emotions, ranging from anxiety over potential losses to elation during winning streaks. It’s vital to recognize that successful trading is not only about these emotions but about keeping them in check. Experienced traders understand the fundamental role psychology plays in trading; conversely, novices may overlook or dismiss it. I aim to help you develop a better understanding of emotional management as a trader. Prioritizing Survival Before anything else, as a trader, you must prioritize staying in the game; survival comes first. Research shows that approximately 90% of traders fail before they ever achieve consistent profits. To belong to the successful 10%, you must adopt a different mindset. It’s unfortunate that many individuals are drawn to trading due to the thrill it offers—the allure of quick profits with little initial capital. For such traders, the thrill often leads to reckless decisions, with no concrete strategy in place. Instead of following a thorough trading plan that accounts for risk management, they bounce from one tip to another, often neglecting the discipline crucial for success. The Pitfalls of Emotional Trading Trading motivated purely by excitement leads to poor decisions characterized by high risk and unfavorable odds. When a loss occurs, many traders seek external factors to blame: the market’s fluctuations, manipulation by large players, or insider trading. However, the harsh reality is that the primary person to be held accountable is you—the trader. Accepting personal responsibility is a fundamental step towards becoming a successful trader. Essential Ingredients for Trading Success To navigate the path of successful trading, you will need to master four critical components: psychology, market analysis, a robust trading plan, and effective money management. In this exploration, we will focus primarily on the psychological component. Read Also: The Value of Psychological Awareness People often ponder whether my background in psychology has contributed to my trading success. The answer is yes. Psychology equips me with the ability to face reality and introspect regarding my emotional responses. This training has taught me that dwelling on past mistakes or feeling regretful is unproductive—what truly matters is taking actionable steps for improvement. Learn to view each trade as an isolated event, unaffected by previous or subsequent trades. Losses are an inevitable part of trading, and embracing them as a reality is crucial for long-term success. Understanding Your Trading Style It’s essential to reflect on your trading personality. Are you a discretionary trader—one who relies on instinct and external inputs such as news articles, broker tips, or peer opinions? Or are you a mechanical trader—someone who follows a well-defined trading plan, adapting it slowly over time while avoiding changes during open trades? Identifying your style will not only help you understand your reactions to the stresses of trading but will also guide you in crafting a suitable trading plan. Discovering the Secret to Success Every trader grapples with the pressures of this challenging profession. Yet, what gives you an edge in this competitive landscape filled with seasoned professionals equipped with advanced tools? The answer lies within you. Your perception shapes your trading experience. Only you can gauge how you will respond to criticism, endure losing streaks, or celebrate significant wins. Your beliefs and values dictate your attitude toward money, risk, excitement, and perseverance. Becoming aware of these elements is the first step toward mastery—controlling or, if necessary, transforming them. Read Also: Crafting Your Trading Plan To better understand your trading persona, consider maintaining a trading journal. Document your emotional responses, trading behaviors, and overall experiences. This exercise will reveal vital insights about whether you're suited for a specific trading style—be it investment, day trading, or longer-term strategies—and help you craft an appropriate trading plan that aligns with your unique personality. Read Also: Conclusion: The Road Ahead Trading is undoubtedly a difficult and stressful endeavor. However, with the right mindset and tools at your disposal, you can navigate this challenging field with confidence. This article serves as an introduction to understanding the vital psychological factors that can influence your trading performance. As you progress, remember to continually assess your emotional health and refine your trading strategy. Establish a comprehensive trading plan before you leap into future trades, ensuring that you’re as prepared as possible for the challenges ahead. With dedication and self-awareness, you can significantly increase your chances of thriving in the trading world. By focusing on your mental approach and understanding the roots of your trading behavior, you can pave the way for a successful future in the exciting world of share trading. Happy trading! Read Also: ✅ Please share your thoughts about this educational post in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate! 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COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by FOREXN1
3
Reading a chart is not a very difficult art. Today we will try to understand how to read the charts how to make assumptions based on the same. First thing that one must understand that it is not a rocket science. One has to be creative, attentive and a sort of meditative. Albert Einstein once said that "it is not that I am smart but I stay with the questions much longer". For reading the chart one must ask questions to the chart and observe the answers by reading between the lines and understanding the patterns. Everything has patterns. Even time is not linear even as per Vedas the time is cyclical. That's why we have God (Generator, Operator and Destroyer). If time is cyclical the cycle is a pattern. We say that history repeats itself. Stock market legend Jesse Livermore once said "All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis. Patterns repeat because human nature hasn’t changed for thousands of years” If you want to know more about Jesse Live more you can watch the movies like The American Clock, The day the bubble burst or The bucket Boy. Thus by asking the question to the chart and by observing the chart and searching fo the answers by noticing the patterns, historic layouts, supports, resistances and applying certain amount of basic maths and common sense one can come to know about the risk is to reward ratio in buying a stock or a derivative. 'Breakout' or Breakout level is what we are searching for. The coveted breakout may happen or it may not even after calculations and chart study and fundamental analysis. So if break out fails you must have a stop loss to protect your capital. If breakout actually happens you let your money work and reap the benefit. After having understood this basic concept let us try to analyse the chart of IDBI Bank for the purpose of education. I will mention below my observations of the same. The purpose of this analysis is educational and one must not treat it as a buy or sell call. The First thing that I observe here is that the stock is moving in a particular parallel channel. Many of the stocks do move in channels. There are different kind of channels and this one is a parallel channel. In a parallel channel channel top works as a resistance, Channel bottom works as a support and mid channel might work as a support if stock price is above it. The same mid channel will work as a resistance if the stock price is below it. Thus we get a Long term target 120 which can be the channel top. We get a long term support 75 which can be the channel bottom. The point to note is that 75 level has been supporting this stock since March 24. The stock has bounced from there many a times as indicated in the chart. In this particular case mid channel will work like a resistance. The real breakout might happen after we get a closing above it at the levels of 91.6. CMP of the stock is 85.12 but before we reach 91.6. There is a scope of trend line breakout if the stock closes above 87.6. Thus 91.6 is my first target. The closing above 91.6 can also be treated as a compounding point for stock's further journey. You can also think of takin partial entries at 87.6 and 91.6. If I am a Short term trader, I can even trade the stock for the target of 91.6. After closing above 91.6 further targets can be 96, 99, 101, 105, 107 and finally 120. Partial profit booking can also be done at these various levels. Trailing stop loss can also be increased step by step as the stock moves northwards. You can never be overconfident in your analysis. Stock market is a graveyard of lot of over confident people. The design of stock market is such that it transfers money from the impatient to the patient. Thus you need a stop loss in case your break out fails. In this particular case I can keep my stop loss at either at a closing below 83 as there are Mother and Father lines (50 and 200 days EMA) at this point. To know more about stuff like parallel channel, Mother Father and Small child theory and much more interesting ways to make your money work through Techno-Funda investing. You can read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in (Paperback) and Kindle version (E-Version). The book has potential to become your handbook or an investment guide. If I am little bit more risk taking person I will keep the stop loss at closing below 75 in this case as 75 has historically provided a great support to the stock. Additionally now it has also become more powerful by becoming a channel bottom support (Importance of channel bottom support is discussed earlier in the article). A person who looks at the risk reward ratio can see that down side risk is Rs.2 or Rs.10 considering my risk taking ability and upside potential is around Rs 35. If you consider 120 as a channel top. So incase I keep my stop loss at 75 and my long term target at 120 my risk reward ratio can be 1:3.5. In case if I keep my target at 99 and my stop loss at 83 my risk reward ratio is 1:7 or so. So the risk reward ratio is a dynamic number which will keep changing depending on your target and risk taking ability. You need to calculate it personally. There can not be a universal risk reward ratio. As different people will keep different targets and different stop losses. Once you have determined your target and stop loss adhere to it strictly. In case of stop loss you have to be particularly strict. In case of target you can let the stock fly even higher than your target but you have to adhere to a trailing stop loss strictly. My book about which I have a description earlier talks at depth about stop loss and trailing stop loss. I sincerely hope that this write-up will help you in reading the charts, understanding the importance of charts and becoming a better investor. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:IDBILong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
The Psychology behind the OverconfidenceHave you ever been convinced that your next trade was destined to succeed, only to watch it go south? Overconfidence is a prevalent obstacle in trading, affecting both novices and veterans alike. Research indicates that traders who feel a high level of control over market dynamics are often the ones who incur substantial losses due to erroneous decisions. Overconfidence manifests when traders inflate their perception of their skills, market knowledge, or ability to forecast price movements. This dangerous mindset can blind them to lurking risks and lead to impulsive decisions. While confidence can be a positive trait when rooted in careful analysis and experience, overconfidence typically arises from emotional biases and previous successes. In an unpredictable market, managing overconfidence is crucial for a sustainable trading journey. Understanding Overconfidence in Trading Overconfidence in trading refers to the tendency of traders to believe they possess superior abilities in predicting market behavior. Unlike constructive confidence, which is born from experience and diligent decision-making, overconfidence is a cognitive bias that creates the illusion of enhanced control and skill. This self-delusion can be especially harmful in volatile markets where outcomes can shift unexpectedly. Traders who fall into the trap of overconfidence often assume they can consistently "outsmart" the market based on a few prior successes or assumptions. This can lead to a reckless disregard for risks, such as underestimating potential market downturns or ignoring crucial economic indicators. The impact of overconfidence on decision-making is significant. It clouds a trader’s judgment, prompting hasty actions rather than careful evaluations. Instead of thoroughly analyzing market data or considering a range of perspectives, overconfident traders often rely on gut instincts, frequently without backing their decisions with technical or fundamental analysis. As a result, they might enter high-risk trades without an appropriate risk assessment, leading to avoidable trading errors and considerable losses, especially during rapid market shifts. How Overconfidence Impacts Trading Performance The detrimental effects of overconfidence on trading performance are multi-faceted and primarily encourage heightened risk-taking. One of the clearest signs of this tendency is the tendency to increase position sizes. Overconfident traders, convinced they have a distinct advantage, may take on larger positions than their risk appetite allows, exposing themselves to greater potential losses if the market moves against them. The allure of leveraging can amplify both gains and losses, and excessive leverage can lead to margin calls, resulting in forced position liquidations. Overconfidence can also lead traders to disregard essential market signals. Such traders may overlook technical and fundamental analysis in favor of their instincts or previous successes. For instance, a trader might open a position even when indicators suggest a decline, purely because of their strong conviction. This tendency can result in them holding onto losing trades for too long, hoping for a reversal when the market's trajectory might not support such optimism. Over time, this behavior can accumulate losses and negatively impact overall profitability. Ultimately, overconfident traders become less adaptable, often resistant to acknowledging their mistakes. This rigidity and the failure to adhere to a disciplined trading strategy can deplete the gains achieved during fortunate periods, leading to inconsistent performance and in some cases, catastrophic financial repercussions. Psychological Triggers Behind Overconfidence Several psychological factors contribute to overconfidence in trading. Success bias and confirmation bias are two of the most prominent. Success bias occurs when traders experience a successful streak, leading them to believe their strategies or skills are foolproof. This temporary success can create a misleading sense of invulnerability, causing traders to take excess risks, overlook critical market signals, or stray from their established trading plans. The thrill of achievement can obstruct the ability to see potential pitfalls. Confirmation bias compounds these issues by shaping how traders process information. Overconfident traders tend to seek and interpret information that aligns with their existing beliefs, discarding any contradictory data. For example, if a trader has a steadfast belief in the potential of a particular asset, they may only focus on favorable news or indicators, ignoring negative developments. This selective analysis reinforces their overconfidence, leading to poor judgment and increased exposure to risk. Understanding these psychological triggers is key for traders who wish to keep their overconfidence in check and enhance their trading acumen. By recognizing the influences of success bias and confirmation bias, traders can actively take steps to mitigate their impact, fostering a more disciplined and analytical trading approach. Cautionary Tales of Overconfidence in Trading Real-world examples of overconfidence in trading serve as sobering reminders for traders at all experience levels. One notable case is Jesse Livermore, a renowned trader from the early 20th century. Livermore achieved significant profits through his exceptional ability to predict market trends. However, after experiencing considerable success, he developed an overinflated sense of his capabilities, prompting him to engage in reckless trading decisions. This overconfidence ultimately led him to invest heavily in stocks just before the 1929 market crash, resulting in devastating financial losses. His story highlights that even the most skilled traders can succumb to overconfidence, underscoring the importance of discipline and humility. Another cautionary tale is that of Nick Leeson, who orchestrated the downfall of Barings Bank in the late 1990s. Initially praised for his trading skills, Leeson’s overconfidence burgeoned after a series of successful trades. This hubris drove him to employ unauthorized and excessively risky trading strategies, culminating in £827 million in losses. His failure to acknowledge the severity of his actions, fueled by a belief in his trading prowess, played a pivotal role in the collapse of one of the oldest banks in the UK. This illustrates that overconfidence can have profound consequences, both for individuals and the institutions they represent. Strategies to Combat Overconfidence in Trading Mitigating overconfidence is essential for achieving long-term profitability and minimizing risks. Here are several strategies traders can implement to strike a balance between confidence and caution: #1 Cultivating Discipline and Humility Discipline is foundational for successful trading. Traders should commit to their trading strategies and rules, resisting the impulse to deviate due to emotional reactions. Creating a detailed trading plan that outlines entry and exit strategies, position sizes, and risk-reward ratios can help prevent impulsive decisions driven by overconfidence. Humility is equally vital in counterbalancing confidence. By acknowledging the unpredictability of the market and the limitations of their knowledge, traders can help temper their overconfidence. This humble approach promotes continuous learning and enables traders to adapt their strategies based on new information and shifting market conditions. Read Also : #2 Data-Driven Decision-Making Relying on data to guide decisions is a robust strategy against overconfidence. Traders who rely on instincts or past successes may overlook critical information. A comprehensive trading plan should incorporate both technical and fundamental analyses and be rooted in objective data rather than subjective feelings. Regularly reviewing and adjusting trading strategies based on performance metrics and market developments can reinforce discipline and counteract emotional decision-making. Read Also: #3 Implementing Strong Risk Management Robust risk management strategies are crucial in curbing overconfidence. Traders are often drawn to excessive risk when confidence is high, so outlining a maximum acceptable loss for each trade can provide a protective barrier against substantial losses. Stop-loss orders can be effective tools for limiting downside risk. Diversification of investments across various asset classes, sectors, and geographic regions can mitigate the adverse effects of individual trade losses. Recognizing that trading inherently carries risks allows traders to adopt a more prudent and balanced approach to their investments. Read Also: Conclusion Overconfidence in trading is a prevalent yet perilous barrier that can lead to severe financial setbacks. Identifying key psychological factors, including success bias and confirmation bias, is essential in addressing and reducing the impact of overconfidence. By practicing discipline, relying on data-driven insights, and implementing effective risk management strategies, traders can defend against the pitfalls of overconfidence. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this educational post in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate! Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution
Education
by FOREXN1
3
How I trade the forbidden news & finance data. Long-GBPSGDReal I used to be a shocking chaser of news events and finance data, you know the important data that gets released at about the same time the NY session opens, give or take an hour or 2. But lets focus on the strategy that puts you in a position to win. If you like charting especilly being able to read things like where the demand levels are and where the supply candles are congregated, this will really help. If its USD pairs then I want to know which ones are weak and soft and which pairs the USD will shine and outperform over, if given the chance. So you play it best if you are super organised with your 'pairs' including the USD, I want to know basic things like support and resistance levels at the time of the announcement. One of my classic setups is being near a daily 200ema which is precisely what this trade I am in at the moment GBPSGD offers. The current daily candle is exactly intersecting (or vice versa) the 200ema, so that tells me that the trend is generally bullish. My old favourite MACD is also nicely involved here. MACD works so close to 100% reliability on the daily when a bullish cross-up is below the zero-line (as is the case here), this is another way of saying that the spring-back trade from oversold levels works better than just a run of the mill pullback with the trend. Some trading educator's won't like reading that because they feel that deep RSI thrusts well below 30 level will continue with the trend down. Perhaps this would be the case if the Instrument you are trying to revive from its oversold condition and to make it spring-back with a bullish reversal, had just lost 100% of its value and it was now worth zero, well it could crash and burn, but the initial cheaper price and change from over-supply to increased buyer demand, brings this back into vogue with buyers in the market. See on the daily macd that since crossing up on 26 November recently, the Macd-line has not even come close to touching or crossing the white signal-line. This is what you want to see and there will be no further trend reversal until such time that the Macd does in fact cross on the signal line. You want to analyse charts in advance as well to test out support and resistance levels. Working out how much RR-room you have between buy-price and SL level will be paramount to bigger profits but nobody like being stopped-out. What about in this setup when your long trade executes upon release of the economic news, are there any bullish buy-order blocks in the vicinity of your buy-price so that this will supportive of trade Long because you know that price will initially be attracted to liquidity nearby which also nearby you have your buy-order. Fibonacci-;levels can also be a big help in confirming the likelihood of price behaving like it does. As soon as you get bullish USD confirmation from the economic news do you toss in a market-buy order as fast as you can? Nah probably not because the market could be factoring in other things aside from your view of the current world of trading news. False breaks of rallys to the Longs and vice versa for the bears can be tempting to join but sometimes for example the gold price will false break and it could take the current buyers-in in the wrong direction and to place you in just enough financial pain to then take the market the intended true way. Wait, wait and wait. Even if you are unsure whether its a false break, one way to know its a real start of a trend is that a Fibonacci -retracement will soon commence to take-stock, slow the race down a tad and then in a slow and methodical way the price orders for further buys will be activated and bringing in new people to the Long position.
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading