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Long Duration Bonds (TLT)We haven't had to manage cycle risk, on a sustained basis to the downside, since 2008-2009 and 2000-2002. The biggest problem in financial markets right now is there's no Event. This is just Cycle-Risk and we haven't had to manage cycle risk - on a sustained basis to the downside - since '08-'09, and 2000-2000 before then. The Fed is in QT. Financial conditions are still in accommodative territory, according to the Financial Conditions Index, and we have a long way to go. We will not see any dovish actions from the Fed until the economy deteriorates significantly. I'm convinced we're past the peak in terms of inflationary pressures. Looking at our portfolio, the #1 thing we aren't allocated to is duration. I think the long bond could rally 20-35% from here. I think when it moves, it's not going to let you back in the trade. The world is short-duration right now. Tons of cash on the sidelines. The dollar rising has been supporting U.S. equities. When it deflates, there will be a significant change in style factors. Expect a significant reversal in sector and style factors ahead. Simple rule on when to enter a long bond trade: It's compelling, given historical backtest, to go long the long bond when the year-over-year inflation rate peaks. (18-20% annualized) YoY Inflation data: fred.stlouisfed.org NFCI: fred.stlouisfed.org
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by RHTrading
Low Cost ETFs That Beat The Market Low cost ETF's that beat the market: (Note these lean Growth, Tech, & Large-Cap Heavy) Add slow and steady now; Add heavy when we retest the black trend-line ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ticker: SPYG Name: SPDR Portfolio S&P500 Growth ETF Last Close: 44.85 Net Assets ($M): 7596 Expense Ratio: 0.04% Dividend Yield: 1.3% 5-Yr Average Dividend Yield Growth: 10.5% YTD Returns Vs S&P500: 10.6% 2-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 5.2% 3-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 5.7% 5-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 3.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ticker: FDIS Name: Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF Last Close: 51.71 Net Assets ($M): 688 Expense Ratio: 0.08% Dividend Yield: 1.2% 5-Yr Average Dividend Yield Growth: 13.8% YTD Returns Vs S&P500: 10.5% 2-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 1.9% 3-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 3.9% 5-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 1.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ticker: FTEC Name: Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF Last Close: 81.06 Net Assets ($M): 3745 Expense Ratio: 0.08% Dividend Yield: 1.4% 5-Yr Average Dividend Yield Growth: 23.0% YTD Returns Vs S&P500: 15.0% 2-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 12.0% 3-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 14.1% 5-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 10.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ticker: SCHG Name: Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF Last Close: 101.1 Net Assets ($M): 9831 Expense Ratio: 0.04% Dividend Yield: 0.7% 5-Yr Average Dividend Yield Growth: 5.2% YTD Returns Vs S&P500: 12.1% 2-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 7.3% 3-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 7.5% 5-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 4.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ticker: MGK Name: Vanguard Mega Cap Growth Index Fund ETF Shares Last Close: 162.36 Net Assets ($M): 7347 Expense Ratio: 0.07 Dividend Yield: 0.9% 5-Yr Average Dividend Yield Growth: 5.2% YTD Returns Vs S&P500: 14.8% 2-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 8.6% 3-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 7.9% 5-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 5.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ticker: VOOG Name: Vanguard S&P500 Growth Index Fund ETF Shares Last Close: 186.68 Net Assets ($M): 3565 Expense Ratio: 0.10% Dividend Yield: 1.2% 5-Yr Average Dividend Yield Growth: 1.5% YTD Returns Vs S&P500: 10.5% 2-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 5.1% 3-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 5.7% 5-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 3.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ticker: VONG Name: Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth Index Fund ETF Shares Last Close: 196.53 Net Assets ($M): 7002 Expense Ratio: 0.08% Dividend Yield: 1.0% 5-Yr Average Dividend Yield Growth: 7.3% YTD Returns Vs S&P500: 12.2% 2-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 7.4% 3-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 7.9% 5-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 4.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ticker: EDV Name: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares Last Close: 163.82 Net Assets ($M): 3286 Expense Ratio: 0.07% Dividend Yield: 2.1% 5-Yr Average Dividend Yield Growth: 2.3% YTD Returns Vs S&P500: 30.8% 2-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 16.5% 3-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 4.2% 5-yr Annualized Returns Vs S&P500: 2.1% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMEX:SPYGLong
by 420snoop
5