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ORBEX: OIL, GOLD - Affected by "Meaningless" Vote, ISIS Attack?In today’s #marketinsights video recording I analyse #Crude #Oil and #Gold! Despite #wti should be under pressure on the last #API build, #Brexit, #US-Sino and oil field attacks by ISIS held the commodity upbeat! Meanwhile, in UK politics the "meaningful" vote took a U-turn to what I like to call "meaningless" vote as parliamentarians did indeed approve #BoJo's plan, but rejected his deadline! And that, of course, keeps gold bulls quiet. Where is this going to end is unknown, but MPs are likely to go ahead with a short extension should the EC grants one. The unanswered questions is if Borris goes ahead with a general election? Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice For more in-depth analysis & daily trading signals, join us at www.orbex.com
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex
Oil price torn between Brexit deal and inventory dataThis week there was a huge surprise US oil inventory build (10 million barrels, 3 times the analyst estimate) due to US sanctions against the shipping company COSCO. However, we also got a Brexit deal today. Oil has been struggling to decide which way to move on all this news. The trend appears to be downward, but it's not confirmed until it breaks below the triangle. Oil is a short only if and when it breaks below triangle bottom.
FX:USOILShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Bet against oil this week after surprise crude inventory buildThere's lots of bad news for crude oil prices right now. Yesterday, OilPrice.com reported that "the American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated a large crude oil inventory draw of 5.92 million barrels for the week ending September 26—a surprise compared to analyst expectations of a 1.567-million-barrel build." This morning, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed the finding of a surprise inventory build, although the EIA's number is a little lower: "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.1 million barrels from the previous week." This surprise inventory build comes despite significant efforts on the part of oil companies to scale back both imports and production, both of which were down week-over-week. There's more bearish news for oil prices, too. Saudi Arabia is reporting its oil fields back at full production, and the US is exploring non-violent solutions to the Iran crisis, including sanctions and peace talks. Both those developments, while good for the world, are bad for oil prices. I've purchased some of the DRIP fund to profit from further declines in oil prices this week. For more news and educational ideas, subscribe to my new YouTube channel for beginner investors, "Wall Street Petting Zoo"!
AMEX:DRIPLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3
The best deal of the second half of the yearToday we are writing about the best deal of the second half of 2019. While many believed that this is the pound purchases (this is potentially the best deal in the foreign exchange market, but not in the financial markets as a whole), but no, the best deal is natural gas purchases. Its current price looks extremely attractive for several reasons. let's start off with the fact that over the last 9 months, natural gas prices of international markets have fallen from $ 5 to $ 2 per MMBTU, that is, almost 2.5 times (!). There were a lot of reasons for, but the main ones were the sharp increase in gas production in the USA due to the shale revolution and the intensified struggle in the gas market for a share, where price became the main weapon. The unexpectedly warm winter, especially in the USA, as well as the trade war escalation, led to increased fears about the demand growth for natural gas. What is happening is very similar to what we observed in the oil market in 2014, when Saudi Arabia announced that it would increase production to increase its share in the oil market. As a result, oil prices for half a year fell by about 2.5 times. But after that, oil prices rose by 2.5 times. how the situation on the oil market was straightened out. - the collusion of a number of oil producers within the OPEC + framework and the artificial reduction of supply on the oil market. Could this happen on the gas market? The answer is unequivocal: yes. Moreover, it is much easier to do on the gas market, rather than on the oil market. If OPEC controls less than 40% of the market and therefore additional participants were needed such as Russia and a number of other countries, then the GECF gas cartel controls more than 50% of the market. And the top 5 countries in gas production hold a market share of over 65%. All you need is 5 countries to change the balance of power in the market. Recall, in order to organize an OPEC + agreement in the oil market, 25 (!) Countries were needed. However, such a deal in the gas market may not be needed. US production growth is rapidly falling (from 50% to 10%). And according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts, in the first quarter of 2020 gas production will begin to decline. Natural gas today is the main source of energy generation: According to British Petroleum estimates, global energy demand will increase by a third by 2040. As a result, the growth in demand for natural gas will be about 50%. That is, you really should not worry about. A potential positive force majeure for the gas market could be the dollar devaluation. Whether it happens as a result of US currency interventions or would be associated with an easing monetary policy by the Fed, we do believe that there is a chance of a decline in the U.S. dollar value. And since gas prices are denominated in dollars, its fall will automatically mean an increase in gas prices. The minimum goals in case of correction development are growth by $ 2.7, which is equivalent to 35% excluding leverage (with a leverage of 1 to 10, which is about 350 (!)%). As for the medium-term goals, it is appropriate to expect the achievement of the $ 3.3 mark. Profitability, in this case, will be unrealistic 65%. Unrealistic because taking into account the leverage 1 to 10, this is equivalent to 650% of the profitability of the deal.
FX:NGASLong
by Trade24Fx
Overall view of XTIUSD or Crude Oil - Update of July 15th's weekPushed by institutional inventories after a plunge from the yearly high, crude oil slightly broke upside the previous supply level @60.000. The energy security has been calmly ranging for two days while the long-institutions and short-retailer holding volumes are increasing. In another hand the daily traded volume is decreasing : We shall still experience a continuation of the upside movement. Possible Target: @64.000 (+3400 pips). Advice: Stay bullish and buy any low point while we don't break downside @58.000 level.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Theperfectionist
Overall view on Natural Gas - Update of July 8th's weekNatural gas has been selling off since the beginning of the year. With the EIA inventory cut due to the Atlantic Hurricane threat, we are likely to see a surge on prices. In fact, the energy commodity is still consolidating on a tight 0.130$ per unit range while being bullish. Possible targets: @2.500 (+40 pips or 0.04$ per m3) and @2.600 (+140 pips or 0.14$ per m3) or 2.265 (+100 pips or 0.10$ per m3) if we break downside @2.370 level. Advice: Stay bullish and buy at any low point while we don't break the @2.370 bottom level.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Theperfectionist
Overall view of XTIUSD or Crude Oil - Week of July 1st updateOil settled at the resistance zone by testing the institutional level of @60.000. The EIA inventory report showed a massive cut of 12M barrels last week while Russia and China agreed to extend their cuts on a 9-months span. Prices remain bullish and we might expect a bullish continuation : However a strong pullback from Friday June 28th exalts us to remain neutral, awaiting a confirmation. Thus odds of a trend continuation are medium. Possible targets: @55.000 (+2000pips or 2.00$ per barrel) if bearish or @63.000 (+3000pips or 3.00$ per barrel) if bullish. Advice: Stay bullish and buy at any low point while we don't break the @55.000 bottom level or await a confirmation.
TVC:USOIL
by Theperfectionist
2
US Oil: Week11 into WedHi Guys, please note that the formation inside the circle was made right on supportive SMA. Following the pannant made on Monday and the run made this morning, price pulled back from 59,50 to return below 59 and find support on the ascending SMA at approx 58,73 and bounced to gap up right after release of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock which was supportive for bulls. Tomorrow EIA will release its report which will be crucial for WTI traders. Overall, despite Tuesday pullback, my view hasn't change from the view I posted on Monday. If you trade intraday you must be quick to take your profits. However, to conclude, if 58.73 is breached 57.87 may be the next supportive level. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:USOIL
by cozzamara
US Oil: Week10 updateHi Guys, the arm wrestling between Trump vs OPEC shifted in favour of Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih in mid-Week10. The barrier that Trump tried to build with his tweet has been broken and sentiment is now heavily overbought. The rally was triggered by remarks by U.S. special envoy Elliott Abrams that Washington planned “very significant” further sanctions on Venezuelan oil and boosted by the Crude Oil Inventories report. Also last week output was adjusted lower and U.S. crude production expected to grow more slowly in 2019 than previously forecast. Add all togheter = Oil prices go higher. Next the publication of monthly oil market reports from both OPEC and the International Energy Agency on Thursday and Friday. TIP: I read somewhere that the Canadian Dollar follows quite well Oil's move. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:USOIL
by cozzamara
Can Oil hold above $50 key level?Oil closed yesterday above key $50 level as the production cut seems to be real. But while Saudi Arabia claimed they are going to cut production by a significant amount, on the contrary new supply is coming and the main source is the US where the production is still at 11.7 M Barrels. Despite crude inventories dipped by 1.7M barrels, to 439.74M barrels, they remained above their five-year seasonal average of 435M barrels.The other side is the end products from which gasoline stocks jumped 8.1M barrels to 248.1M barrels. According to EIA data this was the largest weekly rise since December 2016. And distillate stocks also surged by 10.6M barrels, to 140.04M barrels. Given these data combined by the concerns that the impact of trade war is still to come, it seems that any bullish effort will most likel to be short lived. It could be a combination of short covering to reload for another sell off or a short term speculative activity, but the fundamentals in medium term are pointing to the downside. Watch the demand prediction in the monhtly oil reports and the the % of neg surprises in corporate earnings. We think that if the WTI can manage to close the week above $50-51.3 zone, the bulls may try to get to the previous uptrend line and could test a zone btw $60-64 in the coming few weeks where the buying power will likely fade. Price action will be key for short entries so with the obve in mind watch the charts for timing
NYMEX:CL1!
by LandofTrading
Possible Long From Support In August WTI Crude (CL)If there has been such a large one week draw on supply, then why are WTI prices heading south? The big reason is news out of Saudi Arabia. Production for June spiked significantly, upwards of 500,000 barrels per day. Traders have latched on to this piece of news, predicting a glut of oil to hit the market in coming months. As a result, we may get a shot to take a long from support on the daily time frame. Here it is: 1)Entry: Buy $70.91 2)Stop Loss: $70.44 3)Profit Target: $71.38 4)Risk Vs Reward Ratio: 1/1 This trade is a bit of a home run, as the stop loss is considerable. Keep a close eye on your leverage. The time table for this play is extensive, so it will stay on the board until the Friday close.
NYMEX:CLQ2018Long
by FXLeaders
3
Daily Outlook CL (Short term/Long term)EIA reports are published at 10:30am EST today, these usually move price significantly. The report along with various sentiment can be viewed here www.investing.com Short Term: After a failed bearish breakout yesterday, price maintained itself in a bullish channel during asian trading. Today's reports will probably determine which way it breaks out. With relatively more proximal resistance than support, there is more downside than downside potential. Long Term: Despite recent bullish activity, there is heavy overhead resistance which will likely limit upside potential. Barring any macro events (Trump in Syria), there is more downside potential from a statistical perspective.
FX:USOILShort
by CasualFinance
Short oil for the week, target 63.18 due to assumed crude build.I typically look at 10:00 EST for weekly direction as that is when the genscape crude inventories estimate comes out. That point is the green arrow and the market took a tumble after that, so I assume there will be a large crude draw, seeing as genscape is much more reliable than API data. Looking at a slightly lower low to confirm bear move tomorrow, around 54.8... then 53.18 as that is the next major support zone. If 54.8 breaks then there will also be a double top that would imply a similar measured move downwards (the rectangles) and that would imply 53.18 as well. Could also look for a pullback retest of 65 area tomorrow after printing lower.
TVC:USOILShort
by Cuddles1997-1999
Oil climbs but how far?Hey guys, here are some thoughts for today :) So oil prices advanced in the Friday morning and head for the best gains since mid-May thanks to the production cuts in the US underpinning hopes for market rebalance. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US oil output fell by 100,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels per day last week while oil production in Libya has reached 1M barrels per day, an informed source told Reuters on Thursday. The prices also benefited from dollar slump. Market players note signs of a recovery in the North Sea. This, in turn, may mean that those "bearish" sentiments that pushed prices down last week and provoked a serious reduction in net long positions for both grades were not entirely justified. Another bearish signal may be the strengthening of oil production in Canada, as reported by Financial Times. The country has the third largest oil reserves in the world and able to increase hydrocarbon production, jeopardizing the implementation of the OPEC + agreement aimed at restoring the balance of supply and demand in the oil market. In recent months, Canadian oil companies have reduced capex, but production on old fields will be maintained for at least 18 months. The Canadian Petroleum Producers Association forecasts an increase in oil production by 270,000 b/d in 2017 and another 320,000 b/d in 2018. The pace of production growth in Canada for several next years may lag behind only the US, said the senior director of the analytical company IHS Markit. Pound is stable dismissing release of a weak confidence index of British consumers, which fell in June deeper than expected amid parliamentary elections and the beginning of negotiations about the terms of the UK's exit from the European Union. The British are increasingly concerned about their own finances, and for the future of the country's economy. The reading of the indicator in the current month decreased to minus 10 points, the minimum since July 2016, when the British responded to the results of the referendum on Brexit, compared to minus 5 points in May. Dollar futures flattened near 95.50 ahead of the weekend.
TVC:USOILLong
by PipVision
3