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USOIL & UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTSGlobal demand growth revised lower is downside pressure for oil and more bad news for the commodity.. Short cad or oil are firm proxies to play this. 44.7 next target lower before 43.6. Weve seen oil move 2% lower on the day already on the back of the news, more downside today may struggle but I wouldnt be surprised. Fed/ weak dollar may hinder further downside moves so engaging short on rallies is perhaps more prudent that broad shorts.. especially in this very choppy oil market. IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT: -Global Oil Demand Growth Is Slowing At A Faster Pace Than Initially Predicted. For 2016, A Gain Of 1.3 Mb/D Is Expected -World Oil Supplies Fell By 0.3 Mb/D In August, Dragged Lower By Non-OPEC -OPEC Crude Production Edged Up To 33.47 Mb/D In August - Testing Record Rates As Middle East Producers Opened The Taps -Anaemic Outlook For Refining Throughput Extends Further Amid Downward Revisions To Our 2H16 Forecast -OECD Total Inventories Built By 32.5 Mb In July To A Fresh Record Of 3 111 Mb -Expects First Quarterly Crude Stock Draw In More Than Two Years
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
Summer is over.. But the gas tank is still full. This trade Idea is a transfer of our open short from prior published idea. Summer is over so it's time to track our action on our daily chart. The old charts remain available but get too busy with notes. Our transferred short was entered over the last two months at an average of $47.10. Its clear that this summers consumption has done little to reduce available oil. The US is importing oil at record amounts... Not to use, but to store. Storage and pipeline services are booming. There are massive physical hedges going on oil, this requires longterm capital. Not something to store oil in just out behind the barn. This storage needs utilization for years... Not just a few quarters. Our target still remains WTI @ 38 by the end of the year. We have now seen oil leave the only active up channel.. I had not expected it to drop outside of the latest micro channel (after drop to 45.5). I do not anticipate a newer, steeper micro channel to form... but will watch for it. More likely it will increase in volatility until the (no change) opec meeting is over on 27th. Until then lots of opportunities for day traders as long as they go with Trend & Fundamentals. Out swing-trade timeline lets us go outside .. But we will add to our shorts on spikes when they warrant. For now we are holding short.
FX:USOILShort
by BigEz
USOIL/ UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REVIEW WTI & BRENTIEA Monthly Oil Market Review: -IEA Keeps World Oil Demand Growth Forecast at 1.4M B/D in 2016 -IEA Downgrades World Oil Demand Growth to 1.2M B/D in 2017 -IEA Sees Lower Oil Demand Growth on Dimmer Macroeconomic Outlook -IEA Sees Lower Oil Demand Growth on Dimmer Macroeconomic Outlook -IEA Says Global Oil Supply Up 800,000 B/D in July on Higher OPEC, Non-OPEC Output -Non-OPEC Output Seen Falling by 900,000 B/D in 2016--IEA -Non-OPEC Output Will See Growth of 300,000 B/D in 2017--IEA -OPEC July Output Rose 150,000 B/D to 8-Year High of 33.39M B/D on Saudi, Iraq--IEA -Saudi July Output Hit Record 10.62M B/D, Up 120,000 B/D From June-IEA -IEA Says Kuwait and the UAE Pumped at Their Highest Ever Levels -IEA: Non-OPEC Supplies Output Rose by 550,000 B/D in July, to 56.7M B/D -IEA Says Expects More Subdued Growth in Refining Activity -IEA Says Crude Oil Balance Indicates Hefty Draw in Third Quarter -IEA Says Massive Stock Overhang Keeping Lid On Prices -IEA Says OECD Commercial Stocks Stood at 3.093B Barrels by End-June
FX:USOIL
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
USOIL UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL REPORT - BREXIT; DEMAND > SUPPLY 17The IEA Oil Market Report was largely in line with OPEC's assesment yesterday - Non OPEC output was seen falling in 2016 by 900,000 B/D - However, they differed on the 2017 perspective with 2017 expectations from the IEA forecasting a modest growth of 200,000 B/D in 2017. Opec Output however rose to an eight year high up 400,000 B/D in June at 3.21M B/D on the back of Saudia and Nigerian growth. On the margin the IEA actually came out on the margin relatively bearish for the oil market and its future - citing a global oil supply increase at +600,000 B/D to 96m in June - with Non OPEC seen at 55.9m B/D. Nonetheless, the IEA went out of their way to highlight that the oil market had made an extraordinary recovery from "Market Surplus" to "near balance" in Q2 2016. The IEA Uped the World Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 1.4M B/D in 2016 (up +0.1M B/D), whilst seeing World Oil Demand Growing by 1.3M B/D in 2017. On the margin it is unsure what the net forces are for 2016 and 2017's demand-supply balance will be, though a 1.4m B/D in 2016 increase in global oil demand growth outstrips the Non-opec 200,000 B/D increase in supply foretasted - this is medium term bullish for Oil . They remained on the fence with Brexit concerns which imo is a positive positioning for the oil market given there should be a negative bias Other notable statements were "There is still an ominous investment gap building up in the oil industry that might, depending on how quickly today's record high oil stocks are eroded, create the conditions for sharply higher prices over the medium term." and "Our underlying message that the market is heading to balance remains on track, but the modest fall back in oil prices in recent days to closer to $45/bbl is a reminder that the road ahead is far from smooth." - these comments in mind, traders should use this information to understand that volatility is likely to be higher so TP/SL should be adjusted accordingly to reduce the margin of error. Personally, i think further USD strength may continue to dull the oil market. IEA Monthly Oil Report Analysis: -IEA: Global Oil Supply Rose 600,000 B/D to 96M B/D in June -IEA: Non-OPEC Output Seen Falling by 900,000 B/D in 2016 -IEA: Non-OPEC Output Will See Modest Growth of 200,000 B/D in 2017 -IEA: Non-OPEC Output Rose in June by 205,000 B/D to 55.9M B/D on Partial Recovery in Canada -IEA: OPEC June Output Up 400,000 B/D to Eight-Year High of 33.21M B/D on Rise in Saudi, Nigeria -IEA: Says Saudi Arabia Ramped Up Output to Near-Record Rate of 10.45M B/D in June -IEA: Says Iranian Output Rose to 3.66M B/D in June, up 50,000 B/D From May -IEA: Says OECD Commercial Stocks Stood at Record 3,074 Million Barrels by End-May -IEA: Market Showing Extraordinary Transformation From Major Surplus to Near Balance in 2Q -IEA: Says High Oil stocks Are Threat to Recent Stability of Prices -IEA: Ups World Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 1.4M B/D in 2016 -IEA: Sees World Oil Demand Growing by 1.3M B/D in 2017 -IEA: Says Middle East Oil Output Rose to Record High of 31.5M B/D in June -IEA: Says Hard to Draw Conclusions About Brexit -IEA: Says High Oil Stocks Pose Threat to Price Stability www.iea.org
FX:USOILLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
Pullback Due for RBOB Gas?Gasoline has seen a crazy rally in the first six weeks of 2015, after a record number of daily declines; but, considering the continued oversupply in both crude and gasoline inventories, RBOB could look to pullback. No longer in an oversold condition on the daily chart, gas has been unable to close above $1.6192, as well as a minor descending trend line. So far, price action has been able to find support on the 23 percent Fib. from the recent bottom to rally top. If gas cannot exceed and breakout of the descending trend line, I look for gas to retest $1.46 before moving lower to $1.423. According to EIA data, gasoline inventories are well above the 5-year average and have been since late fall. The next few months typically see less demand for gas due to seasonality, and I am uncertain whether or not demand will greatly pick up heading into summer. In the near-term, I expect prices to remain low. Although, a breakout from resistance could send prices to $1.680.
NYMEX:RB1!
by CommoditiesTrader