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Bitcoin Events and the PI Cycle Top Indicator ### Chart Description : * Title :* Bitcoin Weekly Cycle Analysis with Key Indicators and Events * Time Frame :* Weekly * Indicators :* - * Pi Cycle Top Indicato r:* - This indicator uses two moving averages: - 111-day Moving Average (111DMA) - 350-day Moving Average multiplied by two (350DMA x 2) - *Functionality:* When the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA x 2, it historically signals that Bitcoin might be reaching a peak in its market cycle. This indicator has been noted for its accuracy in predicting Bitcoin's market tops to within days. * Event Markers :* - * U.S. Election Dates :* - Marked on the chart are vertical lines at the points where U.S. presidential elections occurred. This helps in analyze how political events influence Bitcoin's price movements. - * Bitcoin Halving Dates :* - Highlighted with vertical lines. Bitcoin halvings occur approximately every four years, reducing the reward for mining new blocks by half, which typically impacts Bitcoin's supply and often leads to price appreciation due to increased scarcity. * Cycle All Time Highs :* - Place markers on the chart where Bitcoin has reached its all-time highs in each cycle. This can provide context on how close the peaks are to halvings or elections, potentially illustrating patterns or correlations. * Price Prediction * $148 in Q3 2025
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by thedronedetector
How the U.S. Election Could Impact USD and EUR/USD Trading"As the U.S. presidential election approaches, it’s time to consider how it might impact our trading strategies, particularly with the U.S. dollar and EUR/USD. Political shifts bring market volatility, so let’s break down how each outcome could influence the dollar and the EUR/USD pair. Election Outcomes and Market Impact 1. If Democrats Win: A Democratic victory could weaken the dollar, as policies may lead to lower inflation and reduced real interest rates. This scenario might push the EUR/USD pair higher, with potential targets around 1.1300–1.1850. For traders, this could mean a favorable environment to consider EUR/USD gains. 2. If Republicans Win: On the other hand, a Republican win might initially strengthen the dollar, thanks to expected trade policies and rising interest rates. However, this strength could be short-lived. Long-term factors may introduce volatility, potentially giving the euro a chance to regain ground against the dollar. Key Levels to Watch in EUR/USD From a technical standpoint, keep an eye on resistance levels from 1.1275 to 1.1750 for potential bullish moves, while support around 1.1000 and a critical level at 1.0900 could indicate a downturn. Combining these levels with election news can help you make informed trade adjustments. How to Trade Before, During, and After the Election Leading up to the election, watch for narrowing polls, as this could introduce uncertainty and increased volatility. During the election itself, expect the market to react strongly—prepare for a Trump win to potentially strengthen the dollar and a Harris victory to have the opposite effe
by habib75rajabi
USD/JPY surges as Trump storms to victoryThe US dollar is on a tear against the major currencies after Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in the US presidential election. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.62, up a massive 2.0% on the day. There are still plenty of votes to count in the US election but it looking increasingly likely that Republican Donald Trump has been re-elected as President. Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris were in a dead heat going into the election on Tuesday and there was concern that declaring a winner could take days or even weeks, which would have led to prolonged uncertainty. In what was a huge surprise to both sides, Trump cruised to victory. The win is even sweeter for the Republicans as they likely have won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. With the Republicans in charge, Trump’s agenda will be easier to push through Congress. It should be noted that at the time of writing, the vote count is incomplete and Harris has not conceded defeat. The US dollar has responded to the Trump win with sharp gains and the yen is in full retreat. Trump’s threats to slap stiff tariffs on China, Europe and Mexico would support the dollar, as tariffs would raise inflation and interest rates. If Trump’s policies lead to trade wars, market sentiment will fall, further boosting the dollar. The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its September meeting today. At the meeting, the BoJ kept rates at 0.25% and Governor Ueda said that BoJ would not rush to raise rates during market volatility. Those comments were a response to a stock market slide after weak US employment reports raised fears that the US economy was deteriorating much more quickly than expected. Those fears were unfounded and the markets don’t expect a BoJ rate hike before early 2025, although if the weak yen takes a dive, it could accelerate plans to raise rates. USD/JPY has pushed past resistance at 151.86, 152.87 and 153.84. The next resistance line is 153.95 150.78 and 149.77 are providing support
by OANDA
Crypto Frenzy: Elon Musk's Impact on Bitcoin and DogecoinCryptocurrencies are skyrocketing just 7 days before the presidential election, and many people are wondering why. The answer, which should come as no surprise, is of course, Elon Musk.The reason is a perfect storm of sorts. Musk’s increased prominence as he campaigns for Donald Trump, his recent comments about cryptocurrency, and his potential role in a Trump administration (should Trump win) are all driving up the price of Bitcoin as well as Dogecoin and a number of other meme coins.Dogecoin, a favorite of Musk’s, was up 9.7% on Tuesday. This comes after the tech billionaire said at a Trump political rally in Pennsylvania that he’s not “actively involved” in crypto: “I just like Dogecoin.” The billionaire founder of Tesla and Space X and owner of X has a long history with Dogecoin, which he first promoted in 2021 on Saturday Night Live, causing the price to spike, only to plunge afterward. (The meme coin’s price has gone up and down based on Musk’s comments since.)Musk, who has been actively campaigning for the Republican nominee and raising money for Trump, has also said he would be heading the Department of Government Efficiency, dubbed DOGE, if the former president is elected. That has also contributed to the frenzy, leading to a more-than-20% gain in Dogecoin over the past seven days, and 33% over the month. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, which is the largest cryptocurrency by total market capitalization, was up over 4.4% on Tuesday, seemingly swept up in the excitement. It’s now trading just short of its March record high.
by habib75rajabi
ETH - Make or Break Zone!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. ETH is currently hovering around the lower bound of its range in the shape of an ascending triangle. 📈As long as the lower red trendline holds, a continuation towards the upper bound of the triangle is expected. In parallel, if the last major low in red at $2,300 is broken downward, a dip towards the $2,000 - $2,100 weekly support would be anticipated. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
5
DreamAnalysis | Trump’s 2024 Comeback Shakes Markets📈 US Elections and Markets: Bitcoin Hits Record $75,000 amid Trump’s Comeback 🌎 Global Market Impact from the US Presidential Election With ballots still being counted, the financial world is buzzing with anticipation over Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House. This election has set off movements in stocks, the US dollar, forex pairs, and cryptocurrencies, affecting global markets even before an official result is announced. 🚀 Bitcoin Surges to All-Time High Bitcoin spiked to an unprecedented $75,000 as market confidence grows around Trump’s chances. With Trump’s support for crypto-friendly policies, this is seen as a bullish indicator in the digital assets space. 💬 Elon Musk Comments on Trump’s Lead Elon Musk, who publicly backed Trump, expressed that Trump’s comeback signals a “clear mandate for change” in the US. The statement has fueled excitement in both the stock and crypto markets, further boosting sentiment around Trump trades. 💸 Forex Markets React: USD Strengthens, Euro Declines 📉 The US dollar surged, with the Euro becoming the day’s weakest currency as it dropped 1.6% to hit a five-month low of 1.07 against the USD. According to Nikos Tzabouras from Tradu, “Lower taxes and deregulation could energize corporate profits and economic activity.” - 💔 Mexican Peso Decline: The peso, one of the currencies most affected by Trump’s policies, saw a 0.5-point drop against the dollar. This reaction is reminiscent of its movements following Trump’s 2016 victory. 🇯🇵 Japanese Stocks Rally While Hong Kong Dips - Nikkei 225 Gains: Japanese stocks soared by 1.5% as early results pointed to a Trump win. Charu Chanana from Saxo Markets noted that any likelihood of a Democratic sweep could impact equity markets but seems increasingly unlikely. - Hong Kong Hang Seng Falls: The Hang Seng index started its day with losses, signaling regional volatility amid election uncertainties. 📊 Equity Markets Rise in the US Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed over 1% on election day, showing investor optimism. However, volatility is anticipated to remain high as the final results approach, with investors keeping an eye on Trump’s confirmed leads in key states like Florida and Georgia. 🔗 Bond Market & Volatility Indicators - Bond Volatility Eases: Despite gains in stocks, the BOA Move index reflects sustained bond volatility, though the VIX (stock volatility) fell slightly from 22 to 20. - Stable Bond Markets: Investors expect bond markets to settle once results are finalized, though high levels suggest some caution. 💥 Crypto Market: Bitcoin Hits New High as Trump Backs Digital Assets Bitcoin’s rise highlights Trump’s support for crypto policies and his “Bitcoin President” stance. While Kamala Harris’s approach to crypto remains uncertain, Trump’s endorsement has boosted the sector, giving confidence to the market and key players. 🔍 Key Takeaways: Market Sentiment Driven by US Election Results The markets are showing clear signs of investor positioning as Trump’s lead becomes apparent: - US Dollar Up: Any lead for Trump boosts the dollar, with high volatility expected to persist until results solidify. - Cryptocurrency Surge: Bitcoin's 5% increase signals strong bullish sentiment. - Forex Weakness: Major currencies, particularly the Euro and Mexican Peso, have declined against the USD. 👁‍🗨 Keep an Eye on: Key Influences and Volatility With ongoing election results, financial markets, crypto, and forex are likely to fluctuate: - Short-term Forex Movements: USD expected to be volatile. - Crypto Optimism: Bitcoin and other digital assets may continue to climb. - US-China Relations: Possible tariff adjustments with Trump’s agenda in mind.
TVC:DXY
by DreamAnalysis
Gold’s Next Big Move: Election Night’s Hidden Chart Signals!Chart Analysis Summary In both charts, we see a prominent ascending channel on a higher time frame (HTF), suggesting an overall bullish structure initially. However, there are signs of potential reversals, especially around critical levels where price fails to break higher and instead forms correctional structures. The ascending channel shown aligns with The Rule of Three, as it often precedes reversals after the third touch due to exhaustion in the trend​​. Reversal Signal: Double Top with Bearish Flag The first chart illustrates a double top pattern within the broader ascending channel, a common reversal signal. This pattern suggests a weakening bullish momentum, aligning with a probable corrective phase. Following the double top, we observe a bearish flag or descending channel, indicating that the price may continue downward after a break. This aligns with Patterns within Patterns, where a smaller bearish flag within a larger corrective structure increases the probability of a downside move​. Bull Flag Structure and Liquidity Zone Testing The second chart labels a large bull flag on the higher time frame (4H) near a liquidity zone. The corrective phase within this flag aligns with the market psychology of retracement after an impulsive move. Multi-Touch Confirmation indicates that these structures gain credibility with multiple touches on key support/resistance lines, making the upcoming third touch a critical point for deciding the direction​. Potential Entry and Exit Scenarios Based on Entry Types from your strategy: High-Probability Entry: Enter on a break of the corrective structure (such as the bear flag or descending channel) following multiple touches. Place a stop loss above the recent high if you’re anticipating a downside continuation, using a reduced-risk entry if you see low-momentum candles and ascending channels close to the top​. Wait for Confirmation: Given the corrective nature, it might be safer to wait for a confirmed breakout rather than entering at the top without solid confirmation. Back-tested data often shows better results when entries are taken after the third touch or initial pullback post-breakout​​. Confluence of Multi-Touch and Patterns The multi-touch confirmation method supports the idea of a third touch before a potential breakout or breakdown. Additionally, patterns within patterns enhance reliability, as seen with ascending or descending channels within larger structures, suggesting the market’s next probable moves more accurately. Strategy Application: Assess the Momentum: Enter on the first pullback (flag formation) after a significant breakout if momentum is strong. For a conservative approach, watch for a third touch on the boundary of the corrective channel. Risk Management: As part of your trading plan, place stops conservatively to avoid getting caught in corrective waves, as tight stops near liquidity zones may result in unnecessary stop-outs. Psychological Preparation: Avoid the perfectionist trap; if the confluence signals are strong but not perfect, following the 80/20 rule may be more beneficial than waiting for ideal entries, as markets rarely align perfectly with expectations​​.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
Politics vs Profits | The US elections & Crypto Harris, Trump, or Crypto ? Only One Goes Brrrr ! 1/ The crypto market typically dips ahead of US elections In 2016, there was a 10% dip, in 2020, a 6% decline, and so far in 2024, a 6% decrease. However, these drops aren't unusual; they can happen without clear triggers on any given day or week. So attributing extra significance to the current dip due to election is overblown it’s just business as usual in crypto 2/ The election results will trigger either a market boom or bust Markets crave certainty over specific candidates. Once the election is over, investors can look ahead and allocate accordingly. In the grand scheme, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market don’t care who sits in the Oval Office. Whether it’s a red, blue, or mixed government, historically, crypto trends upward over time. 3/ Trump/Harris will be terrible for the economy While Republicans and Democrats have vast differences (more so now than ever), unity isn’t our forte. How can we bring the nation together? Maybe start with a common interest and go from there One thing’s certain, both parties have an affinity for money printing , While it’s a headache for the US’s debt situation, it benefits crypto.Why? Because a share of that newly minted money typically flows into crypto assets, which have limited or predictable inflation. In essence, money printing devalues the US dollar but bolsters the value of scarce assets (like crypto) over time.Regardless of who wins, the money printer is expected to stay active. While election may provide market clarity, it’s not a sure thing. Close elections can take days to finalize. So, if you feel like panicking, just remember this: Zoom out → stay calm → remember…In the long run, crypto tends to prevail. November is off to a roaring start with several significant market events – and that’s just in the first week! But before we look ahead, let’s review October to see where we stand: 1/ October Recap Expectations were high for ‘Moontober,’ and it delivered (though gains were modest). October saw: - $ BTC up 11%, with the broader crypto market up 10% - US Bitcoin ETFs purchased 5.83 times more CRYPTOCAP:BTC than was mined in October. This demand and limited supply helped push the total crypto market cap out of an 8 month descending trend, signaling a potential reversal. 2/ Macro Outlook Now, on to November. This week features two major macro events: - US Elections – Tuesday, Nov 5th - Rate Cuts – Thursday, Nov 7th Markets expect a 0.25% rate cut. Though smaller than September’s 0.50% cut, it could ease market pressure.Lower borrowing costs reduce debt servicing expenses, freeing up cash for spending and potentially boosting both the economy and crypto markets. The bonus? Historically, Bitcoin’s average return in November is +43% If this trend holds, we could see CRYPTOCAP:BTC hit $100k by month’s end! Cross your fingers, toes, and eyes! 3/ Token Unlocks October had $5.4B worth of token unlocks, creating potential sell pressure. Thankfully, November’s unlocks are lighter at $2.6B, which may limit that pressure. 4/ Earnings Reports This week brings earnings from: - Franklin Templeton (managers of the AMEX:EZBC Bitcoin ETF) - Arm (semiconductor architecture designers) - Qualcomm (wireless tech products) - Sony (self-explanatory) But November 20th is the main event, with Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) – the AI powerhouse – reporting earnings.That’s November in a nutshell. We’ll be here daily with updates as events unfold
Long
by moonypto
4
99% rate cut odds in election week? With both the election and an upcoming Fed meeting in focus, markets could face a surge in volatility this week. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are placing a 99% probability on a quarter-point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s policy meeting on Thursday, following a half-point cut in September. After the rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak. But, even if Thursday brings a clear election outcome, Fed officials are likely to sidestep any questions about potential policies from the next administration until the winner assumes office. Only then will they assess how campaign pledges translate into actual policy, watching closely to see how businesses, consumers, and financial markets react before making any further moves on monetary policy.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
US Election, FED Rate Cut, 1,200+ earnings - Here we go!!!It's Election Eve and I thought it was important to share how I'm positioning for the US Election and all of the craziness that it may bring. Maybe it's all hype, maybe it's the truest test of US Democracy, maybe it's the beginning of the end. I'm not going to opine on political preference. I'm simply going to focus on current levels and what's in play. Pullback levels for me are all pretty visually friendly with EMA combos on the Daily and Weekly charts. We are 3-4% off from recent highs, the market wasn't in love with Mag 7 earnings last week, pre-election jitters are fairly obvious, and the market will be looking for a reason to do something. Expect volatility - and I hope it's nothing wild and crazy like Aug 1-5. I discuss the potential concern for a US Election where a winner is not declared and we wait days or longer for an official winner. Also a phenomenon is the Wednesday close for the S&P tends to show solid short-term direction, but I believe that's only if we see a winner Tuesday night for election night (just my opinion). I'm hedged, alerts are set, it's all happening whether we like it or not. Focus on what you can control in your trading and let's figure it out. Thanks for watching!!!
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver
2
EURUSD Flat To Start November Elections Ahead The EURUSD has been quite flat to start the month of November. The current market price is hovering around 1.08730, which is within about 10 pips of the November month open price. Today the Bank of Australia will be releasing new data regarding interest rates, this could possibly give some volatility to the market for US pairs. Don't forget that the US Federal Election will be held tomorrow. Traders will be looking for a spike, for now we will be waiting for the news.
by ilyaskhan1994
XAUUSD - Gold Awaiting US ElectionsGold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In today's analysis, I have drawn trade scenarios for you based on various confirmations In each circle we look for one-hour timeframe candles to confirm the expected trend. After a grueling and controversial campaign season, the US election will be held this week. Although many experts believe a clear winner is unlikely to be announced on Wednesday, much of the uncertainty surrounding the US political landscape is expected to ease next week, which may not bode well for gold. This precious metal had significant momentum last month due to the election fluctuations. Market analysts pointed out that the improvement of former US President Donald Trump's chances of victory and the creation of a potential "red wave" (a Republican victory) in Congress raised concerns about the continued unabated increase in government spending. In recent weeks, that fear has extended to either party's control of the White House and both houses of Congress. However, there is a famous saying in the financial markets for times like this: "Buy the rumor and sell the news." Last week, gold prices hit an all-time high above $2,800 an ounce as investors weighed in on rumors surrounding the US election. Dennis Gartman, a noted commodity investor, said he has become more cautious about gold as it draws more attention from investors. However, he added that despite any near-term weakness, gold's long-term fundamentals are well supportive of prices. "The main trend is still bullish," he said. Aside from the geopolitical turmoil created by this election cycle, gold remains well-supported by the sluggish US economy and labor market. In October, the US economy added just 12,000 jobs, well below expectations for 100,000 jobs. Some of the weakness can be attributed to fluctuations caused by cyclone devastation in southern states. However, looking beyond this volatility, sharp downward revisions in August and September suggest that the labor market is cooling. At the same time, this week we also saw that inflation is continuously increasing. The main measure of personal consumption expenditures, the U.S. central bank's preferred measure of inflation, showed that consumer prices held steady at 2.7% over the past three months. The Fed is stuck and will continue to cut interest rates as the labor market weakens. While interest rate cuts may not be as aggressive as they would like, higher inflation means lower real interest rates, which will hurt the US dollar and support gold prices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin - How will Bitcoin react to the results of the election?Bitcoin is located between the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. Risk on sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. We will look for Bitcoin resale positions within the specified supply zone. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Bitcoin buying positions can be looked for in the two specified demand zones. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important New surveys by “ABC News/Ipsos” indicate a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as the 2024 U.S. election approaches. These surveys reveal that 74% of voters are dissatisfied with the state of the country and also discontent with the current presidential candidates. Harris is slightly ahead with 49% support compared to Trump’s 46%. In the final days, Harris’s campaign has been more active in connecting with voters, gaining more support among Latinos, African Americans, and young women, whereas Trump holds greater support among white men and those without a college degree. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has not only positioned himself as a pro-crypto figure but his tariff-raising policies could lead to inflation and increased geopolitical tensions. Trump, who previously opposed cryptocurrencies, has shifted to strong support for the industry this year. Decrypt previously reported that Trump aims to have all Bitcoin mining conducted in the U.S. and has launched a decentralized finance (DeFi) project running on Ethereum, with plans to issue his own stablecoin. On the other hand, MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, announced plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to buy more Bitcoin. The company’s “21/21 Plan” aims to gather $21 billion through equity and $21 billion through debt. The company has stated that this additional capital will be used to acquire more Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Their latest purchase in mid-September added 7,420 Bitcoin valued at $458.2 million, bringing their total holdings to 252,220 Bitcoin. Performance of ETFs with the highest trading volume on Friday: Total: - GETTEX:55M BlackRock: $0M Fidelity: - GETTEX:26M Grayscale: -$5M Bitcoin mining revenue and profit fell for the fourth consecutive month in October. JPMorgan reported that the average weekly hashrate of the Bitcoin network reached a record high. The bank estimated that Bitcoin miners earned an average of $41,800 per exahash per second, a 1% decrease from September. Additionally, daily gross profit reached a new low. Bitcoin mining difficulty hit an all-time high in October; however, transaction fees significantly increased, reaching 60% of the block reward by the end of the month. The monthly hashrate for the Bitcoin network increased to 702 EH/s in October, 9% higher than the previous month. The latest update of the crypto market’s Fear and Greed Index shows that it remains in the greed zone, although it dropped by 4 points compared to the previous day.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NASDAQ - Nasdaq will lose the 20,000?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the range of 20,000 is broken, we can witness the continuation of the decline If the index rises towards the two specified supply zones, you can look for Nasdaq sell positions up to the bottom of the ascending channel The U.S. jobs report for October indicated that only 12,000 new jobs were added to the labor market, significantly below expectations. This drop was primarily due to strikes, particularly at Boeing, and the impacts of recent storms. In October 2024, 512,000 workers were unable to work due to hurricanes Helen and Milton, much higher than the historical average of 47,000. These conditions led to a slowdown in job growth for October. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, but revised data from previous months show a decline in job growth. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the U.S. stock market will grow by the end of the year, driven by various factors. The end of October marks reduced sales by investment and pension funds, which could support stock price growth. This outlook contrasts with the consensus on Wall Street, which expects stock prices to decline after the presidential election. However, Goldman Sachs believes that stock market growth will continue under current conditions. A survey by the Conference Board shows that 51.4% of American consumers expect stock prices to rise over the next 12 months. This represents the highest optimism level recorded since the survey began in 1987, although experts remain skeptical. Warren Buffett continued selling a significant portion of his Apple shares in the third quarter of 2024, selling nearly a quarter of his holdings. This move reduced Berkshire Hathaway’s stake in Apple to 300 million shares, representing a 67.2% decrease from the end of the third quarter last year. Despite these sales, Berkshire Hathaway’s cash reserves have reached $325.2 billion. Buffett indicated that some sales might be due to tax reasons, but the volume of sales suggests other factors may also be at play. Interestingly, Berkshire did not purchase any stocks during this period. Next week’s U.S. election will be in the spotlight, with market participants in a state of uncertainty as it is unclear whether conclusive results will be announced immediately after polls close on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, central banks will also be in focus; the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy on Tuesday, followed by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve on Thursday. Additionally, markets await the release of the U.S. ISM Services PMI on Tuesday, weekly jobless claims data on Thursday, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. These data points could significantly influence market direction during this crucial week. Nick Timiraos, an economic analyst from The Wall Street Journal, believes the U.S. jobs report will not significantly alter expectations for a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve. JPMorgan analysts suggest that if Trump wins the election, more expansionary fiscal policies will be implemented, which could increase the budget deficit and inflation. As a result, the Fed may pause rate cuts. Conversely, if Kamala Harris wins, the economy is expected to continue its slow and steady path, and the Fed would likely proceed with a rate cut in November; however, with a Trump victory, this cut may be halted in December.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
What to do the week America votes?The dollar and the Euro depending on the future president of the USA. The most important week, both for the United States and the rest of the world, and also for the currency markets. The choice between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is key for the future of the United States, as well as for the development of economies around the world. On November 5, 2024, Tuesday is the election in the USA. The election of Kamala will definitely not affect the dollar well, while the election of Trump would have a positive effect. But there is one very big BUT. In both elections, unrest is very likely to follow, which would adversely affect the United States. Thus, the "elections 2024" drama will not end with the final decision of the voters. Betting on Gold is much safer in these absolutely uncertain times. Even more so with the news that more and more millionaires are trying to leave the United States. After the employment data, this week, fundamentals will generally be left for later trading when the passions surrounding the election die down. Our advice is to choose gold instead of the dollar or euro. You can't go wrong with gold for medium to long term trading. This week, trading will start neutral in anticipation of the news surrounding the elections, but it is possible that individual players will be quite aggressive in the markets. The probability of very large trade turnovers is very high. In addition to the US election, on Tuesday you can watch the ECB's President Lagarde speech, as well as data on the ISM Services PMI (Oct). On Thursday after the election, pay attention to the Fed Interest Rate Decision, where a 25 basis point cut is expected. If everything around the election goes smoothly (although it is unlikely), then the expected lowering of interest rates in the United States will be the main driving event for the week.
by World-Signals
Trump or Harris? Markets Awaits Outcome Trump or Harris? Markets Awaits Outcome This week, the U.S. presidential election will command everyone's attention. Market watchers will be focused on a handful of pivotal swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is potentially the most critical. Yet, the results may not be immediate. In 2020, for instance, the Associated Press declared Biden the official winner about three and a half days after polls closed. This time around, a win by Trump could strengthen the dollar, driven by the possibility of heightened tariffs that may also weigh on currencies closely linked to China, such as the Australian dollar. With daily MACD in negative territory, AUD/USD appears on track to test the next support at 0.6490, aligned with a trend line since October 2023 In contrast, Newsquawk suggests that a Harris victory could pressure the dollar, with potential gains in commodities and the euro.
by BlackBull_Markets
DJT - Parabolic Move IncomingPolitics aside, NASDAQ:DJT is about to begin the most insane of rallies. This chart for me is as clean as they come! Recent Price Action The last 2 days of October saw a ~45% correction, completing an Elliott Wave 2 correction. This after a bullish initial Wave 1 formation saw it go beyond even the most bullish of bullish initial price targets, in just 2 weeks flat. Price had prior to that been compressed inside a downwards-pointing wedge pattern (orange lines), since late March 2024. Over-shooting below it even, which is one of my most favourite bullish chart patterns. After breaking out of that, it is now not-only putting the finishing touches to an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern (grey lines)... but when it does so it will also complete a massive Cup & Handle formation (white arrows). Future Price Targets The initial target (T1) from this move would be $570 (18x) in a very short period, perhaps even just 2 months. This would coincide with the 1.414 fibonacci level from the previous introduction of this stock (formerly DWAC) to public markets. Thereafter, an extended 5th wave target of $1,030 (33x) could be reached somewhere between early February and late May 2025. This coincides with the 1.618 fibonacci level (darker blue T2 line). Price as of today has back-tested the red horizontal line, in very quick fashion. This is the 0.382 fibonacci level. Next Up... Price may well end-up sideways on Monday and going into Tuesday's pivotal election day - which may allow the RSI to come back a little more to the mid 40s on this timeframe, to retest the RSI bull zone for support. From there I expect late Tuesday early Wednesday NASDAQ:DJT will have had a sufficient amount of time to cool-off - such that we can call the completion of a Wave 2 correction. Before the hugely exciting 3rd & 5th waves await us. Possible Elliott Waves Wave 1 - $12 to $55 Wave 2 - $55 to $30 Wave 3 - $30 to $570 Wave 4 - $570 to $140 Wave 5 - $140 to $1,030 Sounds ridiculous, right? Short squeeze, or election euphoria - call it what you want. But if you thought you'd seen NASDAQ:DJT volatility in recent days, think again. This is an incredible opportunity - with many many patterns aligning. NASDAQ:DJT has a lot of room to the upside still from here. Not sure this stock can any longer be suppressed.
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by DigiDavid
20
Gold after U.S. election : Since rising tensions have played a significant role in the recent increase in gold prices, let’s look at each U.S. presidential candidate’s approach to handling these tensions and their future plans. Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic Party, is focused on diplomatic efforts to reduce conflicts in the Middle East. She generally follows the Biden administration's approach, aiming to ease hostilities through aid and international agreements, including a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. This approach may help stabilize markets by reducing the volatility tied to prolonged conflicts. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, takes a more aggressive stance. He supports a strong alliance with Israel, endorses military responses to threats from Iran and its regional affiliates, and prioritizes U.S. strength and independence. Trump's “America First” stance could lead to continued or heightened tensions, which historically correlates with higher gold prices due to investor flight to safe-haven assets. In summary: Kamala Harris: Diplomatic de-escalation, which may stabilize gold prices. Donald Trump: Military strength and strong alliances, likely to keep prices high in case of increased tension. These policy differences could significantly impact markets depending on which candidate wins. Please support us by liking and leaving comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by habib75rajabi