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Election

US Presidential Election Year Pattern 04-08-12-16Did anyone notice that the Covid19 Crash of 2020 fell to the level where Trump was elected back in November 2016? I thought it would be interesting to use the "bars pattern" tool to copy the US Presidential Election Year price action of the $DJI Dow Jones Industrials and paste it to the end of 2019 to see how we are doing compared to the last 4 elections. I'll add some more after I publish this. I hope you can find patterns in price action to help you find insights into market opportunities. Every day I am searching for ideas in the Key Hidden Levels Chat room and posting them as I see them. Tim 11:30AM EST 10/20/20
Editors' picks
DJ:DJI
by timwest
24
New Pairs Today - $LOW $TJX $AVB $IYR $DBX $BOXHey guys, we had a nice uptick in volatility today with the VIX climbing to 29.2, with that I put on 3 new pairs trades. Long $TJX / Short $LOW - Long $AVB / Short $IYR - Long $BOX / Short $DBX. I still have 3 other open pairs trades. Barring any unexpected event I think volatility could stay tame up until the election in 2 weeks then we could see some massive re-pricing on the day of the election and the following several sessions as the market re-prices assets according to what new administration is set to takeover the White House, so I plan on having light exposure going into the election, not putting on any new trades in the several days leading into the election and then look for volatility spikes afterwards to enter new pairs trades. Jared
NASDAQ:DBX
by Click-Capital
S&P Analysis Week of 10/18/2020 - Show Me the StimulusI'm not super excited about this week's setups for several reasons. The main reason, however, is that we are moving sideways and we are in between two major support and resistance levels. Usually, it's my opinion that traders should avoid sideways markets and wait for clarity and a high probability setup. I did try to point out some possible trades, but I think these could turn more into day trades rather than swing trades. There isn't a lot of room to hold onto positions if markets continue the whiplash and sideways movement. Sometimes that happens and a trader has to sit out a week or two until a high probability setup occurs. You don't have to be in a trade everyday. As usual, I keep my charts as simple as possible and focus on support and resistance areas (I ignore all the fancy indicators that can be confusing but also create false signals). This week it was a bit more difficult to make a simple chart because there is so much in play (including a broken major resistance that has not be retested). Also, the market may still want to test 3500 yet again because of the significance and because it was the last major breakdown area. This is the simplest and cleanest chart I could draw out. Prior to this week, I was not putting any sell trades unless they were very extreme because we are technically still in an uptrend. However, I think at the end of last week the market started to show weakness. The market has a ton of over head resistance and coming into a bearish wedge, so I wanted to point out at least a couple sell signals. I split trade setup #2 into 2 plays (A&B). 2A is a bit risky in my opinion because if it provides a signal (breakdown of diagonal support), then price might immediately come into support if the broken resistance is tested and confirms support. I still wanted to list it as a potential trade. The safer trade (2A) is if the broken resistance does not hold as support and we see further price declines. That would be the safer bet but keep in mind that there is strong support just below it. That is why all shorts are risky until we break the major support area. The bullish trade comes if we bounce off the broken resistance or off the major support. I don't see any other long trades unless we break all time highs (which I don't think is likely this week). I'm still 99% sure the broken resistance will be retested (and possibly this week). So you can understand why I don't like this week's setups. I'm not even confident I'll take a trade until we get more clarity and confirmation and or start breaking major resistance/support areas. I've been hearing a consistent theme amongst the trading community that we will not see any big moves prior to the election. Who knows what the market makers are planning. Good luck and be careful. If anyone sees better trade setups, please let me know. Otherwise please keep in mind that I am not 100% confident about this week. I'll post updates if this week starts to show better clarity. Remember when trading: "When it feels really wrong, it's probably right. And when it feels really right, it's probably wrong."
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
6
SP500 Could test 3400 before we see 3600I can see the S&P 500 testing 3400 long before it is easy to see 3600. We need to get the election out of the way while simultaneously, there are large spikes in infections around the world. Along with those two events, there is another event that is not happening: the new stimulus package. Without a new stimulus package, there's too much weight at the top of this market to push for new levels. I'm not buying that there's enough money moving around the world right now to warrant the past moves. The broader market will move downwards. SPCFD:SPX
UShort
by ByDHTaylor
BTC Gearing Up for A Strong Move?My Follow Crypto Traders, Appreciate you taking the time to view my analysis, in which I hope you may find it beneficial. Please be sure to “LIKE” if you indeed find my analysis useful and/or find my analysis intriguing. Also, I’m new to charting game and the crypto space. So, if you have any constructive criticism or tips, please share. Cheers & Happy Trading! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANALYSIS: BTC seems to be gearing up for a strong move. However, the question is, in which direction? BTC has just undergone an ABC correction, which would imply price action to the upside. Thus, BTC would make another attempt at testing the $11.5K resistance level. From my personal observation, BTC favors numbers 3 and 4. Therefore, BTC usually breaks resistance on either the 3rd or 4th re-test. So, I am predicting that we may fall and re-test the $10.9K support levels, which seems to be a region of high value before the end of October. A correction to a region of high value would be healthy, which would induce a move orders of magnitudes greater and break through the $11.5 region and on to $13K after the election. This narrative would only play out if we see the 9ema cross below the 20ema on the daily timeframe, so keep an eye out. Being that this is crypto in which there is a narrative where we can see BTC dip after a failed re-test of the $11.5k resistance either right before or after the election, and full the CME gap. *Note: Any stimulus news would be a huge catalyst to the upside. So, keep your ears to the street regarding stimulus news. Also, we are seeing institutional money flowing into the market, which if this continues, it can also be a catalyst in the market. Especially, since there is a fear of high inflation. KEY Green = 4hr timeframe resistance/support Blue = 3hr timeframe resistance/support Red = CME Gap
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by AB_Trading-Intelligence
S&P 500 could sell off from hereYesterday, I could see that the equity markets were a little top-heavy; we had moved a bit too much to fast over the past week. I'm expecting continued movement lower over the next couple of days as the election nears. I'm expecting a pull-back to the recent bottom of the market. But, this should be minimal and the recent moves higher will eventually be taken out for new all-time highs. However, the caveat to this is a bungling of a new stimulus package and perhaps anything new with the COVID developments. It would appear that the new infections are removing any hope of a vaccine as the virus morphs as it moves around. Maybe this virus will be with us for decades? CURRENCYCOM:US500
UShort
by ByDHTaylor
FSLR Support and Resistance- WatchlistNASDAQ:FSLR is a leader in the solar industry which will likely become a leading industry. I like this stock to begin pulling back after having a great start to the month. After this consolidation (watch for a bounce off 75.73) I believe that the upside is great. Break in 81.85 would likely lead to a test of 87.89. Earnings will play a big role in this and a beat or an upgrade could lift this stock greatly. Not seeing any outstanding patterns on the chart and most indicators are showing a downside.
NASDAQ:FSLR
by crawfordpaul
Dow Jones direction after election?Pretty hectic times we’re going through and in the US one of the most speculative elections in history is about to unfold and a Biden win could trigger another downfall of stocks for a little while. Using Elliot wave we know we’re in a B wave and we’re waiting for a catalyst (election or second round of corona) to cause the market to drop. Personally I believe that if Biden wins it’s going to look like 2009 again where we enter a bear market for around a year before the market begins to rebalance and we can get stocks for a great discount before the next bull run. I personally wouldn’t short at the moment I’d just wait until next month. Good luck everyone.
TVC:DJIShort
by snipdapipz
VIX Decrease Today? (Oct 9th 2020)VIX - S&P 500 Volatility Index - (October 9th-14th 2020) Just an idea about our beloved VIX going down over the next week or so. Big moves in S&P to be made this week? Bloodbath could still be around the corner... It is the month of Halloween after all... ;) Low: ~23.64-24% High: 27.05% Could get crazy with the election inbound... Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
CBOE:VIX
by Hambooger
SPHealth 2 Week Comparisons (Oct 7-20 2020)SPHealth - Growth Analysis & Comparison - Cindicator Poll Submission (October 7th - 20th 2020) I've been looking through my Cindicator questions, making forecasts and watching markets as new polls pop up. Here's a comparison chart for 5 major S&P health companies and my rankings forecast. (Descending order from most growth to least) United Health Group Inc (UNH) Abbott Labs (ABT) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Merck & Co. (MRK) This forecast will be explicitly graded by total growth % comparisons of opening prices on October 7th to closing prices on October 20th across the 5 aforementioned companies. As of right now before 10-9-20 daily market open, the percentage growth is as follows: UNH +1.9% PFE +1.87% JNJ +1.56% ABT +1.1% MRK +0.54% When looking at a specific metric within the already completed duration since I submitted my forecast, overall recent growth is: UNH +2.82% PFE +2.66% JNJ +2.24% MRK +2.22% ABT +1.62% 10-9-20 Forecast Adjustments: Now that I have seen the last 2 days play out, I'm starting to notice a couple things about my forecast and actual live value. I'm confident that United Health will still outperform, but this outlook could change if any major market sell off occurs before the 20th. Pfizer looks like it could be a strong runner up, and I may have flubbed my original forecast by ranking it 4th in growth. Johnson & Johnson is performing approximately as expected. Merck and Abbott Labs could be tricky to pinpoint exactly without some further research and analysis but, I'm guessing that Abbott may come in 4th place if everything settles after any quick rallies that should happen. If a light pump in Merck occurs over the 19th-20th, then there could be a small chance it outperforms Abbott for 4th but it feels like an unlikely scenario. After these deliberations, I've decided my forecast doesn't need much adjusting other than to swap the placement of Pfizer and Abbott. My updated forecast is as follows: United Health Group Inc (UNH) Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Abbott Labs (ABT) Merck & Co. (MRK) One thing to note is that I believe TradingView is not calculating its percentage scale correctly, its placing the 0% Y axis at the close value of the first candle used to calculate growth. So this graph is really just more for me to check my own work by hand, as the percentages on the left will not accurately portray what is actually being graded by Cindicator. I'll check back in after the 20th to see how this turned out! Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
NYSE:UNH
by Hambooger
Gold 12H - End of October OutlookFollowing my previous gold chart I would hope for a retest of $1950 before a dump until after the election, after a propped up economy ($) helps re-elect DJT. We have a nice Elliot wave in play with a break of support now turned resistance and with a fib retracement from the last LH to the last LL / Waves 2 - 3. After the world has clarity after November, I think that is when we will see the true value of Gold, cryptos etc. Check how these zones hold up and the cross point on 12th October, IMF is also revaluing their SDR between 12th - 18th of this month. Hope to see this unfold and a drop in Gold for a great chance to buy before a major surge which is well overdue. This also aligns with Silver's chart which I will post soon, a very clear retracement is due aiding a bearish bias for the short term.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by jakedubbz
All eyes on the DOWToday I'm talking about the DOW cause there is a strong correlation between Bitcoin and the Global Markets atm. The DOW has made significant gains after a brutal last week, yet are we out of the woods? News -Presidential debates will take over the market until after the election TA Now Lets start of simple and wanted to say I wanted to show the 5min time frame but trading view said no, so I'll try to do my best to describe what I see even though with the high volatility that is about to happen the 5min time frame is what investors should be watching up too the election. -As of now the Dow has created a lower high after breaking out of our brutal downtrend, yet BTC took hits but is ultimately going sideways with higher swings of volatility depending ona .02% in the DOW. At the same time the DOW is creating lower highs which will result in more selling pressure going into the election. -You can see some blue circles, these repest similarties in past and present price action. This could result with a 200+ point move in the DOW, with give a 500+ point correction hitting a PT of 27696 roughly high and a 27138 low, with more movement lower next week -MACD is trending up looking for more bullish price action. -RSI is overbought showing the market could be nearing its end of a short term bull run Final Thoughts Best play is to take profit when you are in the green and don't be greedy. A recovery during heated debates could cause damage on short term trading accounts or looking for quick gains. Also quick note alot of rumors are going around that Oil will dump pretty soon and will happen before the market dumps, so watch for futures in Oil.
U
by nathanielx9
MERCURY RETROGRADE/BTC INCOMING 02/02/2020-03/29/2020 REFERENCE Astrology and technical analysis are not as strange bedfellows as one would think. This was the first retrograde of 2020 - This astronomical influence lasts for nearly 2 months at a time but like a tide there is a build up, a maximum, and a waning. The influence of mercury in retrograde is on all things and not necessarily negative. Creativity and connection with the past are common in This period(as well as utter chaos and unplanned challenges) I'm publishing this chart now as reference because the current retrograde cycle just started a couple days ago and VERY interestingly enough the tail end of the peak is right before election day... I do astrological charts and TA for really anything or anyone with enough data . Putting the two together can occasionally be astounding. This chart is basic . The next one will have more depth involving planetary house influence and more. if you like this and have something you would like an astronomical/TA chart done let me know and I'll see if it can be made so. Watch for the next chart soon!
by maui1111
1
Short Term Bull Run to 340+, then Bear Flags All the Way DownSee my other posts if you’re interested. The short and fat of it is... We’re bullish on the Day and Week as DXY sets new support above 94. Time is running out on this bull run and/or correction. Bearish divergence incoming based on lower lows and lower highs. Momentum is drying up and stimulus will expire on 10/2. SRSI, RSI , and Chaikin are bullish for at least $3-10 before the market pukes out of its butt to 300. Dead cat bounce to 315 and then we go dark bloody red regardless of who holds Office. SPY Proj: 335, 339, 341, 344, 320, 300, 285, 310, > 290.
AMEX:SPY
by whatstheplay69