Get started

Election

Chinese government can manipulate US elections by manipulating There is a positive correlation between the US and Chinese stock markets, and the Chinese government can manipulate US elections by manipulating the Chinese stock market. The Chinese government is using its power to raise the Chinese stock index.The Chinese government has boosted the US stock market by pulling up the Chinese stock market. Through such abductions, it is difficult for Trump to adopt a tough trade policy against China.The probability of Trump's re-election appears to be in the hands of the Chinese government.
SSE:000001Long
by CrazyMartin
HOLD THE PHONE... ES to 4000+ by November ???In short, I am no longer short. The recent additional QE measures and absurd position of the Fed to continue to expand it's balance sheet with no regard of the consequences tell me a few things. A. The fed and talking heads know that they have pretty much convinced THE HERD that blowing a bubble inside of a bubble is not only logical, it's our saving grace. B. That this will end badly but, not yet. If you look back to the '29 crash that was also fueled by a careless debt-fueled cycle, you will see that prior to the main collapse, there was one last blow the top off-pump... That is what I believe began on March 23rd and will continue through the election. Nothing that has happened this year has been a surprise to the powerful elite. The real Bull/Bear battle here is political in nature, nothing maters but staying in control. I believe we are in an impulse 5 wave and will break ATH in the ES in the next 5 weeks. We are collecting under the top end of the all-important megaphone pattern and I believe we are about to breakthrough. After reaching ATH, matching the NASDAQ's pattern, then we will get a nice retracement to the top side of the megaphone pattern. From there a weaker and potentially very powerful bearish pattern. Perhaps a H&S pattern like BOEING's chart prior to the Feb breakdown. If Trump loses the market, he loses his base and the election. Therefore, there is nothing this "team" won't do to keep the party going for another few months. They have made that very clear and it's only 20 weeks away. I can see it now... Donny loses the election with markets at ATH's. like 4150 in the ES. Crazy numbers... He waves goodbye and signs his name on the V shape recovery he promised. Then, with the country in Biden/China's hands, we will see the epic collapse of our bloated state. 156% valuations to GPD might look small by November. ... or maybe we get rejected here and tumble, however, last I checked the money machine is still working. Food for thought or comment: What would happen if Biden wins and tries to clawback corporate tax cutes? Can he do that? What if the US's credit rating is downgraded internationally? What happens if we are no longer the reserve currency?
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Andimolz_
1
Are Pot Stocks Back? Potential Breakout OpportunityCRON has broken out of the descending triangle pattern (reversal) with a strong bullish candle (+21%) on 6/8/20. This is an interesting setup since the descending triangle chart pattern seemed to form at the end of the downtrend. Over the last several months pot stocks have gotten hammered. Some stocks even falling +90% during the bear market. The fundamentals are beginning to align, and general market sentiment has greatly improved. If sentiment remains positive, there is a possibility that CRON will continue to rally into election season. If there is a strong push for more states to legalize marijuana, then except additional momentum.
NASDAQ:CRONLong
by tradingwithyg
1
LOG Long Term Trendline SupportWe can see the long term support forming a channel with the overhead support from 20k ATH. We can see how a BIG MOVE IS SETTING UP...ON or before AUGUST 27th 2020. Brian Brooks is having fun making the new crypto dollar everyone is expecting. Your dollars are just digits on a screen...unless a blockchain application creates a new transparent world. Imagine knowing exactly how many dollars there are! Don't worry... Privacy coins still exist... but YOUR AMERICAN EXPRESS CARD tracks you anyways evertime you swipe...lol Just wait until AMERICAN EXPRESS releases the BITCOIN REWARDS CARD! welcome to the roaring 20s... just need to destroy the swamp first... enjoy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by denniswokeupinanewbitcoin
VIRUS was TREND ANOMALYI made this chart at the end of 2019, It has played out correctly....SHORT OF A VIRUS HAPPENING... After the Election in the USA, we are likely to see the world change. Odd are in the favor of FREEDOM...we'll see... END OF DECEMBER 2020... BTC LONG TERM TRENDLINE will break ABOVE the JUNE 2019 recent HIGH... AFTER THAT... WE SHOULD BREAK THROUGH 20K LIKE BREAKING THROUGH PUDDING. EASY HYPERBOLIC JUMP TO 170K-200K!!!!! THIS WILL CHANGE THE WORLD FOREVER. And all the CRYPTO PROJECTS that are SECRETLY BEING CREATED RIGHT NOW... Will MAGICALLY APPEAR... TO SELL YOU THEIR COINS AT HIGH TICKET PRICES... Obvious STRATEGY... Expect BIG CREDIT CARD COMPANIES TO ALL RELEASE THEIR CRYPTO REWARDS CARDS INSTEAD OF TRAVEL CARDS. Dollars, Mortgages, Interest Rates, Worldwide Commerce, WILL ALL CHANGE. hopefully we build FREEDOM, and not TYRANNY. USE CRYPTOS FOR GOOD, not evil.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by denniswokeupinanewbitcoin
2
21k before Trump will lose USA elections in November.So it's obvious, that BTC will rally to reach new ATH before November and will collapse miserably after Trump will lose USA election and stock market crash. Also, COVID-19 will create real apocalypse in the USA (I'm talking about riots and shooting in the streets because bastards there have too many guns and not so much brain). But if Russia will help Trump with reelection, bitcoin will pump further to the moon. #shorttesla
Long
by UnitedFreedomJapan
4
Recession Time: A Very Non-Technical AnalysisThis idea is mostly based on observations of COVID-19 throughout the world, news and social media reactions, and the U.S. government's responses (White House and the Federal Reserve). I believe a recession is coming, which is not a direct cause of COVID-19. In fact, COVID-19 is the perfect excuse for one. This contraction is highly anticipated but ignored like a world war that nobody wants but still has to participate in. So far: 1. (NOV '19) COVID-19 outbreak first confirmed in Wuhan, China 2. The world reacts to China's response; Stock markets begin to tumble; Questions loom about a possible recession - but CNBC and other news analysts scoff at the notion of a recession 3. (JAN '20) South Korea confirms community spread 4. Countries that underestimate the virus succumb to it very quickly (i.e. Italy, France, Iran, etc.) 5. Some people are finally accepting the reality of the virus (MAR '20); Panic ensues as this reality sets in; Reactions are similar to a hurricane - stock up on toilet paper, canned goods, and water (highly unnecessary if you were already using tap water...) 6. Stock markets continue to tumble 7. (MAR ’20) A brief sigh of relief comes on Friday March 13th as Trump gives State of Emergency declaration - during market hours (probably intentionally); S&P surges 8. The Fed cuts interest rates and commits to purchasing $500 bln in treasury bonds and $200 bln in mortage-backed securities - despite this, S&P futures plummeted; New York City’s public school system (the largest in the country) is officially closing during the COVID-19 outbreak; COVID-19 memes are all you see on social media – this is a good sign that the public is finally taking notice even if it’s a disruption to their lives, however, I don't think this is enough to slow it down. Every U.S. state has at least 1 confirmed case of COVID-19 (www.nytimes.com) Italy – 24,747 cases (+3,590 in the last 24 hours) (www.worldometers.info) Going forward – what you will notice: 9. The insidious fear of a corporate debt bubble returning 10. News outlets will increasingly use “recession” as part of their daily talking points – what happened to “it will never happen”? 11. Trump and the Fed will do everything desperately possible to delay fears of an inevitable recession prior to the Presidential election 12. COVID-19 infections will continue to occur in the U.S. until the end of the year at the earliest; The S&P will continue to decline until vaccines are successfully tested and are produced; By then, we will be in a full-blown recession where many will have accepted it. While some (American) folks are now cautious about COVID0-19, not enough are taking it seriously; Many New Yorkers are still traveling across the city like it’s nothing. Instagrammers are still traveling and taking advantage of cheap flights; Some are literally taking these flights just for the bragging rights. Many say, "The chances of me dying is very low." Yes, but the chances of you spreading it to someone who could, is very high. I'm saving cash and also shorting. I believe the panic and uncertainty will continue throughout the rest of the year. A simple exponential graph will tell you how high the confirmed cases of COVID-19 will be. I’m watching VIX and SPY very closely. The stock market will be blood red next week. If everyone just self-quarantined at home for 2 weeks, it could significantly improve the spread of this virus. But no one will. So, during this COVID-19 crisis, a recession is going to take the reins. I say "crisis" because it's going to be called that very soon. Today, it’s just an "outbreak". I really hope we turn this around but I'm not very sure given these basic observations. I wish you all good health and safety. I'll update this periodically. WASH YOUR HANDS, STAY HOME (if you can), and STOP SCREWING AROUND. Random note: I found this podcast episode along with other resources very insightful: Joe Rogan Experience Episode #1439
AMEX:SPYShort
by traderman001
9
Why seasonal factors predict a banner year for stocks in 2020In the 2020 Stock Traders' Almanac , the authors point out that "S&P gains January's first five days preceded full-year gains 81.8% of the time." They call this the "First Five Days" effect. This year, January's first week produced a gain of about 1%, so based on the historical pattern, we should expect the full year to be an up year. The authors also write that when the market gets a strong Santa Claus Rally, a positive "First Five Days," and a positive full month of January, then the full-year gain of the S&P 500 averages over 17%. So far, 2020 is on track for that trifecta of bullish indicators. Unless we get a very significant correction at the end of January, we should have a great year in 2020. Why do these barometers work? Because the end of December and beginning of January are when many companies issue full-year guidance, and it's also when the major investment banks and analyst firms do a lot of their forecasting and release earnings estimates for the year. This short period can produce major revisions of the market's expectations and major reallocations as investors immediately start taking the new information into account. The market is also boosted this year by the fact that it's an election year with an incumbent running for president. "Since 1949 the Dow is up 10.1% in election years when a sitting president is running for reelection vs. 5.3% in all election years." That's because incumbents manipulate markets for their political advantage, as Trump has done by lowering interest rates to stimulate massive borrowing. More specifically, here's what to expect: the couple days after MLK Jr. day tend to be weak, but then the rest of January is typically solid. February, however, often sees a pause or a significant correction from January highs. Given the high multiple the S&P 500 is currently trading at, I'd hazard a guess that we see a small correction in February before the market resumes its uptrend in March.
SP:SPXLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
11
GBPAUD Long IdeaHere is an idea: GBPAUD Long. Why you may ask, here are a few reasons: - UK General Elections on December 12th (current predictions are Tories winning the elections, and market wants Tories to win) - December 15th Tariffs (Trump still hasn't taken a decision on what to do with December 15th tariffs, most likely I believe he will keep them as tensions has started to rise a little bit between the 2 countries) - China (CNY) Exports numbers weren't very good, and by direct correlation AUD gets also impacted negatively as AUD and CNY are partners. Let me know what you guys think, any comments, fell free to let me know.
Long
by jimnakmtl
Hypothetical UK Election Trade ...Election results come in... (for which party will be in government). which results in a rise or fall in GBP due to it's significance (in this instance it was seen as a good result and GBP rose). -We know there is going to be volatility, so we can profit regardless of whether the price goes up or down as when the price reaches certain points (A if price rises and B if price falls) it will trigger a trade which will cancel the other one -Can be executed on many pairs/ stocks if large results are due. -Eliminates bias with OCO order. --(DISCLAIMER) Set TP and Trigger point on major support resistance, you don't want to trigger then go the opposite direction!! Straddle Trades can be good for profiting regardless on where the price goes (in times of high volatility) and you could have made some good profits here, this could be replicated for trades such as EUR/GBP, Non farm payroll, US Elections etc... and are also known as OCO (One Cancels the Other) orders
Education
by Sampdm8
US stock market: growth out of control The Dow Jones Index is showing the longest period of growth in its history. Given that this growth is completely divorced from economic development, even the most avid bulls in the US stock market are beginning to doubt about prospects: the growth is clearly out of control. There is another fact: when the market grows very rapidly in a very short period, it becomes extremely vulnerable to correction. According to many analysts, a correction in the US stock market is inevitable and its minimum scale is 10% -20%. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, expects a 15% correction in early 2020. The problem of the US stock market in terms of continuing the bull rally is the lack of drivers for such growth: the economic growth rate has long lagged behind the stock market growth rate, on the eve of the Presidential election, there are no serious economic reforms to be expected, companies are stopping their share buyback programs, and their financial results for the fourth quarter in a row show worse growth rates. Perhaps the only chance for stock market growth is an active interest rate cut by the Fed. But the Central Bank made it quite clear that it is not going do that. Recall, we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it is going to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times, the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDAQShort
by Trade24Fx
GBP Pairs Might Rise Back To 2008 LevelsOn December 12th 2019, as the British polls were coming to an end, conservative Boris Johnson was winning. With Boris's the idea to get rid of the Brexit deal that was introduced back in 2008 which lead to a 29.5% crash on all GBP pairs within a year, price on GBP pairs came rising up to over 400 pips within a few hours. This leads me to believe, a good swing trade setup is in the making where market price can reach record highs since 2008 before Brexit was introduced. All in all, This would lead to about a 30% increase at over 6,800 PIPS.
Long
by AzzenWazHere
Tesco - Pattern consolidation for long trajectory.Tesco: -In the daily chart: Price action has consolidated into a rangebound symmetrical triangle, this usually symbolises continuation (to the upside) but I do not discount the possibility of a short if we fail to breakout long and in-turn breakout in the opposite direction. Identifying a breakout: In this case price has had bullish candles deviate outside of the range, however, using both a price and time filters for confirmed entry, no bullish daily candle has so far managed to close outside. As we are right at the upper wall of the pattern, this could occur soon for a nice RRR ONLY IF we get a bullish daily candle close long. Catalysts for the move: UK election - If the conservatives gain a majority on Thursday night then I expect this entry position to be triggered, if not then i expect the opposite for this and the FTSE100 in general if labour win or there is uncertainty with a hung parliament.
LSE:TSCOLong
by TomSaundersFXS
GBP/CAD Market Situation And Future Swing ProbabilitiesPositive expectations for the upcoming U.K. general elections could keep sterling supported throughout the session, especially if polls continue to confirm the Tories’ lead. A couple of medium-tier reports from the U.K weren't actually impressive. Monthly GDP was above the previous but QoQ and YoY were lower than previous no good changes. The construction site wasn't doing good. Industrial Production and manufacturing were only better than previous but trade balance ended up the deficit for the Oct. Economic release were mix but the prospect of more opinion polls confirming a lead by the Tories may have some weight reason to push the pound higher on this cross pair.
by jessi061