Election2024
Pudumjee Paper - Ready to Print Currency Notes :)There is no Election without Liquor & Briyani, and neither without Advertisements about each political Party
Liquor, Media, Paper stocks were expected to Rally from couple of months back, but none of them picked up the Rally until now where many portions of India has already completed Election
Anyways, our earlier Pick of Paper Stock - Pudumjee Paper is all gearing up to print Money Bills soon
Comparison on Daily, Weekly and Quarterly charts clearly articulate how Support and Resistance works and how each pattern contributes incrementally to another larger chart Pattern
Quarterly View: 7 Year Rounding Bottom Breakout done. In between, the Price also had a Fib 0.5 scale retracement and Bounce with Extended Fib Targets as shown below
Fib 1.618 Target = 98
Fib 2.618 Target = 139
Weekly View: Look at the Long Dragon Fly Doji pattern on the week of 11th March. Its a very important structure as it tested and bounced from 2 support levels.
The Wick bounce from the Previous Cup and Handle BO at 55
The Candle body finished above the Multi-year Rounding Bottom BO Trendline (highlighted in Quarterly chart)
Daily View: On the Daily, there are 2 bullish structures
Inverted H&S - On verge of BO above 75 for Target of 98 - which matches FIB 1.618 target of Quarterly
Rounding Bottom - BO pending above 84 WCB for Target of 114
As you can see the structures, patterns, supports, resistances and Targets of one Pattern has overlap / leads to the components of next larger pattern. These are NOT coincidences. This is how Chart patterns do get formed based on People Behaviour which is repetitive and which is governed by 2 main aspects (Greed & Fear)
Disclaimer:
3+ Years Teaching Experience in Stock Market - Technical Analysis, Behaviour Analysis, Advanced Patterns, Emotional Management, News based Trading...
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Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 26-Mar-24 to 29-Mar-24Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 26-Mar-24 to 29-Mar-24
Nifty closed at 22096 (22023) and touched low & high of 21710 & 22175
RSI and stochastics levels have improved last week (51% & 47% Respectively).
Market closed almost flat last week
Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on market and election outcome.
Nifty IT 35188 (37517) -To continue hold and buy on dips. Nifty IT touched 20 days before new high (38550) and started falling. Major support at 34918 /34000. Can add more at 33288 with Target 40000.
Nifty bank 46863 (46591) -To continue buy on dips. Nifty Bank last week dipped. initial Target 48618 ( all time high). if it cross this resistance decisively.
support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). Purchase on Dips.
Nifty 22096- Short & medium term (Neutral)
Nifty still in undecisive state at present and will be rangebound. As mentioned for the past three weeks, Fibonacci extended resistance ( target) is near to 22819 which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak. nifty next target 22819 (Fib Resistance)/23000.
Short term Support - 21900, 21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart.
Medium term Support at 20225 (prev high), 20000 ( Fib Resistance)
Long Term
Market expected range bound between 23000 to 18800 expected in 2024.
Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance).
Comments :
Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend sustaining the market above 22000.
Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Election outcome analysis i have prepared is available in website in my profile and my X account karthik_ss
Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support.
Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. But to a surprise Nifty IT moved up 4-5% up as US economy is recovering. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000.
Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Nifty Bank ( 46554) tried to move above key resistances. Continue to buy on dips.
As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
India's Growth Story - Top 5 Sectors which will be in Lime-LightA Quick Overview of Global Major Economies
Japan, US, UK, Australia, Germany are officially in Recession
USA has not declared Recession officially as it is just covering up the underlying problem
Chinese Economy is in serious turmoil
Now where does India Stand?
Which Sectors within India are dependent on these Foreign Economies?
Which Sectors are in "Atmanirbhar" status ? which can continue their Rally ?
As you all know Indian IT Industry is heavily dependent on Foreign Projects - US / UK / European / Australian IT Offshoring projects. Given these major economies are in Recession - IT will likely face "Some Impact". At the same time, globally there is big GaGa on Generative AI and Indian IT industry focussing on AI - is all set to Offset the negative impact from Classical Offshoring Projects. This will help ease some pressure on IT companies, but overall IT is expected to have slower growth
Keeping aside the Politics, the current Governmental Policies are so favorable for the following sectors and hence I believe in India's Growth Story and expect a Blasting Rally on the below sectors
Energy: India has transformed from a country begging western world for permission to buy Uranium for Domestic Nuclear Energy generation to a Country which stands tall on the use of All types of Green Energy (Solar, Wind, Hydrogen, Hydro-Electric etc...) and has become Truly Atmanirbhar in generating enough power for us. Green Energy is just starting up - there is much more to go and investments on Green Energy sector is only going to multiply after the Election
Defence: India again has transformed from being a Major Defence Equipment Importer to a Major Defence Exporter. This again is a Sunrise Sector and Indian Defence Sector is going to grow multi-fold in future both in Short and Long Term and hence the Rally would Continue and even Grow bigger after the Election
PSU: As you all know, the Central Govt is emphasizing on PSUs so much and advertising heavily in Parliament, Rajya Sabha/Lok Sabha to invest in PSUs. Irrespective of any politics, given the upcoming Election, the Govt cannot afford to have an impact to their Brand Image if PSUs crash. They won't allow that either Pre-Election or even Post-Election and Technically many PSU stocks are on the verge of Breakout / doing a Retest after break out. Long long way to go on PSU side
Railways: With 3000+ New Trains, Bullet Trains, Conversion of traditional trains into Vande Bharat - the govt has made their plans clearly and invested heavily on Railway Modernisation plan. Even in the Interim budget there is strong Emphasis on Railway sector which is only going to multiply after the Election and hence the brief pause that we see in Railways will get released post Election and there is much Bigger Rally awaited in Railways in the next 3-5 years
Infra: Next to Railways, the Govt has emphasized and invested heavily on the Infrastructure development and expansion throughout the country and detailed out their intentions even during the Interim budget. India's Road / Rail / Sea & Airport Infrastructure is seeing a Massive Growth in recent years making the setup ready for Make-in-India Theme and Ease-of-Doing-Business themes drawing huge amounts of Foreign Investments
Given these reasons, I see a major and continued growth and expansion of the above 5 Macro Sectors and their dependent Sub-sectors like Cement, Steel & Metal sectors both in Short and Long Term (both pre and post-Election)
I believe in India's Growth Story - both the Story & Screenplay are super Strong and Indian Economy is positioned so strong among their Global Peers and heading for non-stop growth while other majors have started to fall down (China, Germany, Japan, UK, France, USA etc...)
Keep Holding your Winners. Always Analyse Technical Charts, Support & Resistance Levels of Individual Stocks before taking position
Disclaimer:
Stocks-n-Trends is NOT registered with SEBI. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions.
If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments
-Team Stocks-n-Trends