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Midterm elections in the USA: analyzing trading opportunitiesToday, on November 6, midterm elections for Congress would be held in the USA. Recall, Congress consists of two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. The current alignment of forces in Congress is on the Republican side (235 to 193 in the House of Representatives in favor of the Republicans and 51 to 49 in the Senate). That’s why Trump could afford trade wars as well as increasing the budget deficit and public debt to implement the tax reform. Despite the fact that these elections only partially provide a rotation in the Congress, the changes can radically change a balance in Parliament instead. Note that the House of Representatives will be fully elected - all 435 seats, but the Senate - only a third (35 seats). The main concern of the markets is the version of the election outcome, under which the Democrats will have full control over the Congress. And this means that Trump’s opportunities for further reforms, as well as trade wars, will sharply decrease. We would not say that this is definitely bad for the US economy as a whole, and for the dollar in particular. But such a scenario implies some short-term pressure on the dollar, due to the fact that the level of uncertainty will increase dramatically, the moments related to Trump’s election campaign investigations, as well as questions about Trump’s tax evasion, or even purely hypothetically, the specter of impeachment to Trump looms on the horizon. Full control over Congress, in fact, paralyzes any movement on the part of Trump, but on the other hand will not give him the opportunity to somehow degrade the current trend of events, for example, another trade wars. So, again, that’s not necessarily that it will be very bad for the US economy. In total, despite the current apprehension of the markets, we do not see a substantial risk to the US economy even in such an extremely marginalized option for the current executive branch. So, the local weakness of the dollar can be used to buy it. Regarding other options, the most likely one is the Democrat’s victory in the House of Representatives, maintaining the status quo in Senate will be kind of form of Trump’s defeat, but still won’t be a debacle. The Republicans’ victory in the elections (considered as the least likely outcome) will almost certainly lead to a surge of optimism and the strengthening of the dollar buyers. Well, we’re monitoring the outcome of elections and looking for points for the dollar purchases according to trading plans have been voiced earlier.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade24Fx
US Election Effect on Bitcoin PriceHOWDY!! - Sticky Joe Sup Peeps, Ok so I have been looking at the charts today because I wanted to make a new TV idea, and I noticed something. WE HAVE BEEN IN A BULL MARKET SINCE JUNE 29!!!! Every single one of those waves up that we have had since June 29 has been actively price-suppressed by the whales (those magnificent b@stards). Bitcoin and the alts have had weak hands sloughed away every month for half a year now. If you have been selling bitcoin at these prices for anything non-essential YOU ARE A FOOL. OK now for the analysis: I said in my last idea that what we are waiting for is a new catalyst. Something to demonstrate that Bitcoin is in a new cycle (not something to bring about the new cycle; we have been in BULL since late JUNE). Something to tell the lemmings in the regular world "maybe I shouldn't have my retirement money in Facebook stock" and to get them into thinking about bitcoin. I believe that that day has come. It is the US Election Day people! It is looking like the democrats have a reasonable chance to take The House (they are not taking The Senate no way in hell lol). The democrats have said that they will focus on attacking business, and the stock market has been bleeding out in anticipation. People are jumping out of stocks and conventional investments all over the world like rats off of a sinking ship. Whether or not the democrats actually will attack business is a moot point. Investors think they will, and Wall Street is preparing for a "Red Dawn" situation (lol the soviets are in the streets!!! lols SELL SELL SELL!!!) All the smart money will go into bitcoin. THERE ARE VERY FEW OTHER SAFE INVESTMENTS. If you disagree ask Tether people. They can try to put their money into dollar stores and canned food companies, but there is only so much money you can put into dollar stores and canned food lolz. I truly believe this is the last moments before the blowup. I truly believe this is what the whales have been waiting for. I truly believe this is what all of us bitcoin investors have been waiting for all year. Global market collapse, rising inflation, distrust of conventional investments. This is where we see if Bitcoin has the minerals. Current Portfolio Composition: BTC 19,4 % ETH 27,8 % BCH 14,7 % LTC 11,2 % XRP 20,9 % BAT 6,0 % I'm not kidding people. The stock market will crash this week. Smart money goes to CRYPTO.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2825836
8
BAC Elliott Wave Analysis: Correction EndedHello Traders, Bank of America Elliott wave analysis suggests that a decline to $27.26 low ended blue wave (3). The internals of that decline unfolded in 5 waves impulse structure in lesser degree cycles. Up from there a 3 wave bounce to $29.19 high ended blue wave (4) as double three structure. Down from there, the stock declined lower in another lesser degree 5 waves structure. That completed the blue wave (5) lower at $25.91 low. Which then also completed black wave ((C)) & the cycle of red wave IV pullback. Above from there, the stock is expected to resume the upside in cycle red wave V ideally. Or should do a larger 3 wave bounce to correct the cycle from 3/12/2018 peak. Currently, the rally from $25.91 low is nesting higher and it ended blue wave (1) at 28.38 peak and the pullback is also proposed to be compelted at 27.51 in blue wave (2). As long as the stock remains above 27.51 low but more importantly above 25.91 invalidation level, it is expected to extend higher. We don’t like selling the stock.
NYSE:BAC
by Elliottwave-Forecast
EW ANALYSIS: EURUSD Can Be Headed Back To 1.18!!Hello traders! Today we will talk about FX:EURUSD before tomorrows Congressional Elections, so something big can be preparing. What we see is that EURUSD bounced exactly from 1.1300 strong psychological support level for the second time, which looks like a potential double bottom formation?! Not only this, even our primary tool Elliott Wave suggests more upside within a big (A)-(B)-(C) regular 3-3-5 correction, where wave (C) is still missing. That said, we can expect another five-wave rally within wave (C) back to 1.18 area to complete the corrective pattern! If from any reason breaks below 1.13, then we may adjust the view. Good luck and trade well!
by ew-forecast
6
US MIDTERM ELECTION IN THE SPOTLIGHTNovember 5, 2018 ·Andria Pichidi On Tuesday 6 November, US will proceed with the off-year elections, occurring every 4 years, before the presidential elections. The particular mid elections are expected to affect the markets as the outcome of the election will be important for the future of the President and for the control of the Congress. As the Republicans control the 54.4% of the House and 51 out of 98 seats in the Senate, it will be interesting to see whether Republicans manage to keep the control of the Congress. The control of Congress will certainly have a significant impact to any future fiscal policy judgements, as each of the parties could have the power to pass their legislation proposals or to vote against opposing legislation agendas. Therefore, Tuesday's voting will have without a doubt an impact on equity markets. Based on the history of US Presidency, we rarely saw so far the Republicans holding the control of the House and Senate, and even more rarely to remain in charge after the mid elections. The most of the surveys in the last few months suggest that there is a high risk for Republicans to be deposed, while FiveThirtyEight website gave 80.7% to the Democrats holding the House, and 69% to Republicans of holding the Senate control. From the markets perspective, the US Equity market has been reacting on any outcome of mid elections positively. More precisely, as Rathbones Brothers state, "US equities tend to be rather directionless in the six months before a midterm election, with a little extra volatility. Over the subsequent six, equities tend to rise steadily". In the past three midterm elections, where Congress' control changed hands either overall or part of it, the US equities remained on the upside movement. This can be confirmed also in the USA500 diagram Therefore, it seems that in general mid elections results, i.e. which party losses/gains/keeps the control of the Congress, are not directly correlated to the US Equities or the global market. Taking as an example the 2006 elections where Democrats took the full control of the Congress with a Republican President, and US remaining in an upside trend. Similarly to USA500, the US Dollar has not been affected from its prior-election direction. However, despite the historical performance of US equities and the US dollar, if we turn back in politics and the current US economic performance, it is not unlikely to see any extraordinary movements in the market in case that Democrats retake the control of the house. Based on the fact that US economic growth is doing extremely well in the past year, a democratic sweep of Congress could have a negative impact on US equities. Meanwhile, if Democrats manage to gain the control of both house and Senate, then it is likely to see US equities facing an even stronger negative momentum. In this case, the hopes of a democratic member to win the 2020 elections will rise, while there are risks of legislation changes from Democrats ( i.e. reduction in corporate tax, changes in budget balance) or block of presidential appointments. Hence this could have a direct impact on US economy and of course US stocks, which have been boosted from Pres. Trump’s tax plan. On the fiscal policy perspective, Democrats as they already mention in the past, they believe on the spending on infrastructure programme. This could help the industrial and material sectors to be boosted.  That could be good news for the industrials and materials sectors of the equity market—and possibly good for bond yields if Congress raises taxes to pay for it. In conclusion, there are 3 scenarios for Tuesday's Congressional election -- a GOP sweep, a Democrat sweep, or a split with Democrats taking back the House and Republicans maintaining their Senate majority. As mentioned, with history and poll on their side, the markets' base case is the split. Meanwhile, the big risk seems to be a potential Democrat victory – in either the House or the Senate, which would severely crimp President Trump's agenda, including fiscal and regulatory issues. President Trump would be unable to enact the remaining policies on his to do list, and hence he may focus all of his attention on the one thing for which he does not require Congressional approval: stoking the trade war. The potential for gridlock in Washington might be taken relatively bullishly by the bond market as increased fiscal stimulus would be in doubt, Wall Street may not like the headwinds to further economic growth. If the Republicans were to maintain control of the legislature, the president would have virtually all policy options open to pursue his domestic and international agendas. That would likely be a more bullish outcome for equities, and further pressure Treasury rates higher, both on beliefs of stronger growth, and a potentially more hawkish FOMC. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer:  This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
TVC:DXYEducation
by HotForex
‘US Dollar index’, a buy ahead of Non-Farm Payroll numbersTrade Set up – Given the underlying trend, and at this very juncture, we feel it is hard to be short the USD. That said, with traders likely to defend the YTD high at 96.98, we feel waiting for a daily close through this resistance level makes sense as it would be sending a fairly powerful signal that the bullish trend is set to continue. On this development we would target 98.00, or the 61.80% retracement of the last major high, with stops below 96.30 looking to tighten stops as price moves higher. Why we like this trade – Price found strong support at the 200-exponential moving average, and used this as a platform to make a renewed assault above 96.00, and clearly the bulls are in control. We can take a look at the oscillators and see no immediate signs of a loss of momentum here, but one would expect momentum to wane into 96.98. Fundamentally, we see downside risks to the USD if we take our timeframe out a week into next week’s US midterms. However, with a $24B liquidity drain from the Fed’s SoMA portfolio tomorrow (which has historically been a USD positive), and the prospect of a 3%-handle in the wage data, as a feature in the US payrolls report we see the USD supported in the short-term. A close through the YTD high can only be seen as a bullish sign and we would trade this closing break accordingly. Disclaimer Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
TVC:DXYLong
by Pepperstone
Impacts of presidential and mid-term elections on the DowJonesI made a chart indicating when presidential/mid-term elections take place and the winners of such. Mid-term years are usually solid, and I think democrats taking the house in 2018 could benefit the stock market, as corporate tax cuts would likely remain, while trade war advances would likely not continue. Mostly just wanted to provide a chart of the last 40ish years displaying what elections do. Thoughts? -Kristian
TVC:DJI
by KristianB12
2
DOW JONES: Ever The Jewel In The CrownAs expected, the Dow, when compared with the SPX and the NASDAQ to name two, presents the most bullish of the bunch. The recent drop was severe, but no long-term damage has been done. And while the SP500 and NASDAQ closed red last week, the DJIA closed green. This is telling us that though profit-taking has set in, bullish fundamentals underpin this market. Although it was a large drop, we have only tested the breakout line of the 2018 Symmetrical Triangle, which is a texbook move. It would be very bullish to ride this line down, making new lows, without a breakdown. Of course, it is too early to say if this would happen, yet it remains on the table. The possibility of making new lows cannot be ruled out, especially in light of the incoming elections. Another, more extreme possibility is that we whipsaw down, taking out the 2018 lows, and immediately return on an upward trajectory. This would also be a textbook whipsaw, as it would take out both the previous highs and lows of 2018, confusing everyone. As always, we need to create the technical conditions that convert the consensus into bearishness. I remain in a long-term long position, with funds ready to buy on further drops. The purple area is important - as long as we CLOSE above there, my bullishness remains. I am long-term bullish, short-term neutral.
OANDA:US30USD
by TheRealPeaches
DOW JONES: DON'T PANIC!The week before last gave us a shooting star/doji. The following week resulted in a pull-back that has everyone scared. For now, we held lower parallel support. However, I'm leaning on the prospect of more downside for now. The markets are telling us something: there is clear concern over the mid-term elections. If Democrats win, I'm sure that would pour water on stock market fundamentals. The Democrats seem to be in a state of emotional meltdown. Any Democratic victory may render the United States uninvestable. As the crown jewel of American industry, the Dow Jones may enter a serious bear market. However, I do not foresee that happening. I foresee a Trump victory - not only in the mid-terms, but for 2020. So, stay with the trend. There will be an amazing buying opportunity soon. Should last week's low give way, it opens up the possibility of falling to the year's lows. Even better: we take out the February low WITHOUT closing below it, on a weekly or monthly basis, creating a severe snap-back rally. THAT would be an incredible trade. I am bullish the Dow Jones long term. I am bullish the Dow Jones in the medium term. But bullishness must be fueled buy the consensus being on the wrong side. We MUST create the conditions that prompt the majority to believe that stocks will go down, in order to go up. This could be a period of sideways consolidation, in a large range. Or it could mean a spike down that 'washes' everyone out, catching them flat-footed. Such a move is possible. Was last week the spike? For now, I think not, as I believe the markets are awaiting confirmation in US politics in November. I await a signal to enter a full position long. As long as we remain below the 25760 area (prior support turned resistance) on a closing basis, I will be taking short scalps, ready to roll into a long.
OANDA:US30USD
by TheRealPeaches
Capitalism or socialism for Mexico in 150 daysMexican elections will be held on 1st July and candidate Lopez Obrador is the front runner. According to Lopez Obrador: "Venezuelan democracy is better than the Mexican one." "We will revert PEMEX privatization. Oil belongs to the people." It is unknown if Lopez Obrador would convert Mexico in the next Venezuela or not, but he is already spooking investors . In the best scenario (blue star) USD/MXN could find support at ~17.4. In the worst scenario (red star) USD/MXN would increase and may find resistance at ~22.
Long
by adelriosantiago
NZD, National Party Wining Elections and What lies tomorrow? Incumbent National party won today, but not a clear majority. Status quo means stability and good for markets. I see uptrend in FX:NZDUSD . Markets do not want a change (Labor Party), whenever snap polls surveys showed Labor Party ahead, look at Bloomberg graphic showing negative reactions! Key Labor policies shows divergence, and potentially bad for economy, you be the judge and study Labor polices here: www.labour.org.nz
Long
by JasMahay
1
Broke below a trading channel - 1.26 next? The UK elections are coming and GBPUSD is starting to feel the pressure. GBPUSD broke below a daily channel and closed below the Fast daily MA line last week. As long as GBPUSD stays below 1.3 the direction is down (in my opinion). The next Major Buy Zone for GBPUSD is 1.26 and that can be the level in which GBPUSD will turn back higher and climb towards the completion of a bearish harmonic pattern - 1.33. If GBPUSD will climb and close above 1.3, the chances that it'll reach 1.33 before the next bearish wave will increase dramatically. It all comes down to the Elections results. It is going to be choppy this week so be careful. Read more about GBPUSD and the UK elections in my newsletter. Visit the website and check out the Weekly Markets Analysis Or look for #WeeklyMarketsAnalysis on Twitter
by themarketzone