PSNY, it's happening again... 4h resistance... breakout or ... ?Polestar, let's go, come on, you can do it...
break through this resistance
Electricvehicles
PSNY - Polestar Automotive UK: $1.00 target!Trading at 92.9% below our estimate of its fair value
Revenue is forecast to grow 37.57% per year
Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months
Negative shareholders equity
Has less than 1 year of cash runway
Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years
TSLA: Patience to buy the dip, but it will be rewarded!Earnings are forecast to grow 17.06% per year
Earnings grew by 1.3% over the past year
TBL - treet batteries should be considered for investment Treet Batteries Limited (TBL) manufactures and supplies a variety of batteries including lead-acid, lithium and nickel-based batteries. The company is a subsidiary of Treet Corporation Limited (TCL) and operates both locally and internationally.
Key Financial Ratios
Gross Profit Margin: 19.9%
Operating Profit Margin: 9.2%
Net Profit Margin: -5.5%
Risks:
High Financing Costs - 70% increase in financial expenses impacting net profit.
Market Conditions - Economic and political instability affecting consumer spending and sales volume.
Opporunity:
The financing cost should go down with lower interest rate environment and rescheduling of debt. Such a scenario would increase the attractiveness for long term investment.
Despite the challenges of high financing costs and a net loss, the significant increase in gross and operating profits indicates effective management and operational efficiency. However, the high debt levels and cash flow challenges need to be closely monitored.
Technical:
Support zone is 22.5
The Wizard with a Magic Wand (Ward Wizard Mobility & Innovation)Ward Wizard Mobility which is a leader in the Electric 2 Wheeler Segment is all set to make headlines now.
Here is a quick comparison of Weekly and Monthly charts - each showing different representation to give you clarity on how multiple patterns get embedded one within another
Weekly Chart: (On Top)
Price is in the process of completing a 2 Year Cup and Handle Pattern
Currently, the Handle portion is in Process and to ensure a smooth and hassle free completion of Handle, the price has formed an Inverted Head and Shoulder Sub-Pattern
The Target of Inv H&S is 85 which completes the Cup and Handle. And Break out Above 85 on Weekly closing will lead to a Target of 95, 120
Monthly Chart: (Bottom Left)
On the Monthly chart - we see a Falling Parallel Channel Break-out, followed by a Retest and then Strong Bounce. This entire structure is a Bullish Continuation pattern (so the fall to retest the Channel should not be considered as a Correction)
Weekly Chart (Bottom Right)
The 2nd representation of Weekly Chart on bottom shows Why the price fell today despite hitting intraday high of more than 8%, it ended at 6.77%
The primary reason for this is the Rejection is the GAP Resistance at 63. Between 63 and 53, the price has already made a clean Double Bottom pattern having neckline around 60
On the Candle stick pattern, the price has formed a Rising 2 Bullish continuation pattern as well on weekly
Though the Resistance 63 is still strong, Every pattern reviewed so far indicates Bullishness - s its just a matter of time before 63 gets broken and price blasts up to its subsequent targets.
When you keep practicing charts - you will be able to combine multiple patterns in just 1 screen and be able to make decisions. I have split each pattern into separate windows for clear understanding of how to read a chart on various views.
Disclaimer:
3+ Years Teaching Experience in Stock Market - Technical Analysis, Behaviour Analysis, Advanced Patterns, Emotional Management, News based Trading...
We are NOT SEBI Registered and Our focus is NOT providing Buy/Sell Recommendations/calls. Primary Objective is to provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes.
We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide irrespective of its Side"
*** Important *** Consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions
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-Team Stocks-n-Trends
TESLA Huge gap down after Earnings! Buy opportunity in disguise?Tesla (TSLA) was down more than -8.00% in pre-market trading after reporting its lowest profit margin in over five years and missing second-quarter earnings expectations. This was largely due to cut prices to revive demand and increased spending on AI projects.
This however can technically be a buy opportunity in disguise as following the ATH Lower Highs trend-line of November 2021 break-out, a new bullish potential emerged and the pattern may very well be a Channel Up as so far the rally since the April 22 Low resembles the 7-month Bullish Leg following the January 06 2023 bottom.
The Target can be within the Resistance 2 level and a potential +194.87% rise (previous Bullish Leg) range. We update our long-term Target to $380.00, slightly below Resistance 2.
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TESLA Massive pump to $360 coming based on historical behaviour.Tesla (TSLA) is recovering today after a sharp pull-back yesterday of around -14%. This marks the stock's first serious correction since the rally started in late June. Ahead of an emerging Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, we looked at Tesla's similar historical patterns since the IPO that offer remarkable insight.
First and foremost, Tesla's recent pattern has been an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which as we've noted on a previous analysis, was its bottom reversal formation that made the price break above the 3-year Lower Highs Resistance trend-line.
Similar IH&S patterns were formed in 2019/20, 2016/17 and 2012/13. So we can claim that there might be a roughly 4-year Cyclical Behavioural Pattern behind Tesla's growth. The word 'growth' is key here as after every such pattern and more importantly a correction of around -15% after breaking above the IH&S, the stock price rallied parabolically into new expansion levels.
As you can see on the 2019/20 pattern the correction was around -10%, on the 2016/17 around -15% and on the 2012/13 around -15% as well. Yesterday's -14% correction along with today's sharp recovery to the 0.5 Fib (losses cut by 50%), seems to fulfil this growth pattern.
As far as a Target is concerned, on all previous cases, the price reached (and even surpasses significantly) at least the 1.5 Fibonacci extension measuring from the pattern's bottom (Head of the IH&S). In 2019/20 it took the price around 1.5 month to approach the 1.5 Fib while in 2012/13 it took roughly 2 months.
As a result, our new medium-term Target on Tesla is $360.00 (marginally below the 1.5 Fib).
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75: BYD to Open Major Electric Vehicle Factory in TurkeyExciting times for BYD as the company announces a significant $1 billion investment to establish a major electric vehicle factory in Turkey. This strategic move is set to help BYD circumvent the recent EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars, creating 5,000 jobs and enhancing their production capabilities to 150,000 vehicles annually. This development not only strengthens BYD's foothold in the European market but also showcases their adaptability and long-term growth strategy.
The chart is currently indicating an uptrend, which began after the price successfully reclaimed the $54.80 level. This reclamation has set a strong foundation for the current upward momentum.
The price has also sustained above the high of $58.01, further solidifying this bullish trend. Holding above this level is crucial for the next phase of the uptrend.
The immediate target for BYD’s stock is the $64.91 price level. Reaching this level will confirm the strength of the current trend and open up possibilities for further gains.
Once the stock achieves the $64.91 mark, we can set our sights on the next significant target at $76.75. Breaking through this level could lead to even higher valuations, reflecting continued investor confidence and market strength. On the flip side, if the stock loses its grip on the $58.01 level, it could signal a reversal, with the next major support found around $43.48. Monitoring these levels is essential for adjusting trading strategies accordingly.
Potential BUY opportunities for NIO companyHere are some potential BUY opportunities for NIO from a technical view.
Lets see how this develops.
Tesla’s Post-Deliveries Surge Stretched from an EV StandpointTesla is having a rough year, being the underperformer of the Magnificent Seven group, as its peers surge. But the stock soared to new 2024 highs after the Q2 delivery report showed a substantial sequential increase, gaining more than 20% this week. Bulls are now back on the driver’s seat and have the opportunity to chase last year’s peak (299.29), although the record highs are distant.
However, this surge is hard to justify from a purely EV prospective. Tesla may have offloaded some of its inflated inventory in Q2, but deliveries were lower than a year ago, just as sales of Chinese rival BYD surged. Demand has weakened despite price cuts, the futuristic Cybertruck is not for mass production (and not for everyone) and we still have not gotten an update of the aging Model Y, which was the best-selling car of 2023. At the same time, there is some uncertainty around the crucial 25K affordable car that could accelerate sales and EV adoption, although it’s a price point where Tesla may have a hard time competing against Chinese firms.
Given these factors and the fact that the stock rally is stretched, a return below the EMA200 would not be surprising. This would create risk for new 2024 lows (138.80), but sustained weakness has a higher degree of difficulty.
Tesla at this point seems like a somewhat overvalued car maker, but an undervalued Artificial Intelligence company. At least part of the market optimism must be based on the AI promise. Elon Musk is preaching AI as the future of the firm, in a technology with the potential to unlock tremendous value as Tesla definitely has an edge, given the vast amounts pf proprietary data it collects from sources like the cameras and sensors in the hundreds of thousands of vehicles it has sold. The CEO pushes hard on full self-driving and robotaxis, with announcements expected in August, as well as humanoid robots and envisions more than a thousand of them working at Tesla factories next year.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Tesla (TSLA) IdeaHey Guys,
Yearly= In a Correction since 2022.
2023 managed only to retest the 50% of the Bearish Candle which is not Bullish but indicated a drop.
Yearly Zones of Interest: 208 & 154
Q2= Bullish Candle at an important Yearly FIB. BUT still in a declining channel.
Stochastic is neutral- bullish. Q4 could provide some bullish setup (according to the stochastics) since we might be forming a higher low here.
Bulls must manage to break through at least the 222 Resistance.
Monthly: Stochastic is bullish - candlestick as well… however the 205 level becomes critical as it is retested with this candle. we also are testing the upper line of a declining channel -> a warning of a possible decline for the next month or so.
Warning line at 205 and the next at 222 as these zones have to be broken to attract more buyers into the markets.
Below 205 I see a great likelyhood of a retest of 3D Lows
Thanks for reading
RIVIAN Time to get bearish despite the VW $5 billion investment?Rivian Automotive (RIVN) reached today as high as $16.35 following Volkswagen's $5 Billion investment and got just shy of our $17.00 long-term target, as we called on our last analysis (May 17, see chart below):
Despite the excellent news, we have to call for caution this time as the technicals come in center stage. As you can see, the prevailing long-term pattern remains a Channel Down since the September 2022 High and unless the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) breaks and closes a 1W candle above it, we won't continue buying.
We change now our outlook to medium-term bearish and expect a rounded top to be formed below the 1W MA100 in the next 3 weeks, which we will sell and target the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel level at $13.50. Check also how the 1D RSI sequences between the current and the previous Lower High formation in July 2023 are similar.
Add to the bearish mix the fact that today's rise stopped exactly on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). In any case, as mentioned, we are only willing to buy after a 1W MA100 break, in which case we will target $28.00 (just below Resistance 2).
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75: Identifying Support around €13.36 Amidst Selling PressureCurrently, we are witnessing selling pressure on the Fastned stock without significant buying interest. However, by examining historical data, we can identify a point of interest around the €13.36 level. This area has previously acted as a support zone, making it a potential accumulation point.
Recent developments support this analysis. Fastned recently raised €32.9 million through the issuance of new bonds, with €12.3 million coming from existing investors extending their bond maturities. This successful fundraising indicates a growing interest and confidence from private investors in Fastned’s long-term potential.
Given this backdrop, we anticipate that the €13.36 level could attract accumulation as investors recognize the company's ongoing investments in the fast-charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. As more motorists transition to electric vehicles, the demand for Fastned's services is expected to increase, potentially driving the stock's recovery.
Monitor the €13.36 level closely for signs of accumulation and potential buying opportunities, considering the growing interest and financial backing Fastned is receiving.
TESLA Huge Inverse Head & Shoulders ahead of Musk's $56B vote!Tesla (TSLA) broke today above its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in more than 5 months (since January 04) and ahead of Musk's $56 billion today, seems to be completing an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern.
Technically this is a pattern seen in major market bottom's. This time it is being formed within the broader pattern of the Bearish Megaphone. A standard 2.0 Fibonacci extension Target would test the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of that Megaphone, considerably above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, our medium-term Target is $225.00, marginally below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
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Tesla - Indecision with the triangleNASDAQ:TSLA has been consolidating for almost 4 years and is definitely ready for a breakout!
+3.300% was the previous rally on Tesla which started back in 2019. But at the moment Tesla is not looking bullish whatsoever, considering that Tesla is trading at the same level as it was about four years ago. However, there is a long term descending triangle formation forming and therefore it is quite likely that we will (soon) see a breakout, either towards the upside or towards the downside.
Levels to watch: $210, $120
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Long on WardwizThe company is heavy in EV mobility. The financials are good. Recently got a big order hence the price is up!
Lookout for sustainable price. If it sustains the same price or goes up.
Rsi breakout is done. Levels are marked. Can take trade!
Xiaomi Drops but Strong Results & EV Entry Are SupportiveThe stock of Xiaomi posts its first losing week in more than a month, despite its mostly strong quarterly results on Thursday and the upgraded guidance on EV deliveries. The drop likely reflects the broader decline of the Hang Seng Index due to geopolitical concerns. It also makes sense from a technical standpoint, since it had reached highly overbought levels.
It is now at a critical technical juncture, as it tests the 50 line on the RSI and is exposed to the 38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s advance. A breach of these levels would open the door to deeper correction that could challenge the EMA200 (black line) and the Ichimoku Cloud, but these levels can contains such moves.
However, Xiaomi reported a 27% y/y increase in revenue in Q1 and 37.6% y/y rise in operating profits. Furthermore, its smartphone shipments increased and the No 3 maker globally can benefit from the expected recovery of the market, following last year’s contraction.
Most importantly, the Chinese smartphone maker made its foray into electric vehicles this year, continuing to diversify and search for new growth markets. Demand for its SU7 sedan, deliveries of which began in late March, has been very high. It has already handed over 10,000 vehicles since May 15 and aims to deliver more than 100K units this year.
Its entry into EVs has fueled a rally in its stock and can drive further gains. Even if there is risk of deeper pullback, the path of least resistance is higher, especially if the 38.2% Fibonacci holds.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
RIVIAN Accumulation before mega rally.Last month (April 18, see chart below), we called for a short-term buy on Rivian Automotive (RIVN) but expected one more pull-back before the absolute bottom:
Since however the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and closed a 1D candle above it too, we have to revise it and we consider April's low to be the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Down pattern.
As a result, we expect a short-term Accumulation Phase, similar to May - June 2023, before an aggressive rally towards the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern. Our target is $17.00 (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
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Tesla - Is it a fakeout?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Tesla.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2020 we had a decent break and retest on Tesla stock which was followed by a pump of +1.500% towards the upside. Then Tesla topped out in 2021 and we saw sideways movement ever since. At the moment Tesla stock is trading in a bullish flag formation and is hovering around the psychological $200 level. Soon there will be a very interesting trading opportunity on Tesla stock.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Tesla among top 10 losers. Next what?Tesla is the 7th worst performer YTD in the Nasdaq-100. It is the 11th worst performer in the S&P 500. The stock stands 28% lower.
Still, after reaching its lowest level on 22/April, the stock has rallied a remarkable 30%. On 24/April, the stock rallied 12% after the positive earnings call. On 29/April, the stock jumped another 15% after the announcement of the Baidu ( HKEX:9888 ) partnership.
Yet in the longer term, outlook remains cloudy as margin compression owing to fierce competition from Chinese EV makers and the wider EV industry slowdown.
MUSK'S CHINA VISIT LEADS TO BAIDU DEAL
Last Sunday, Elon Musk flew to China on a surprise visit. The last minute visit led to speculation over a push to launch full self driving (FSD) in China.
Persons close to the matter stated that Musk was expected to discuss the rollout of FSD software and permission to transfer data overseas, as reported in Reuters .
One of the key hold-ups for the rollout of FSD in China has been access to map data. Musk’s recent trip seems to have addressed that as Tesla announced a partnership with Baidu for map data access. While, Musk has long claimed that Teslas will be able to run FSD without map data, this will allow them to roll-out the offering much sooner and boost the slowing revenue in one of their leading markets in China.
FSD has been a recent revenue driver for Tesla. In 2024, Siena Capital analysts estimated that Tesla recognized almost USD 700 million in revenue, which represents 4.3% of their automotive revenue after stripping regulatory credits.
BYD PARTNERSHIP
Another strategic partnership that has helped boost investor sentiment at Tesla has been the strategic partnership with BYD ( HKEX:1211 ).
While both companies are major competitors, BYD recently overtook Tesla as the largest EV manufacturer in terms of overall vehicle sales (including hybrids). However, the fierce competition has also taken a toll on both companies as it has led to price cuts to win over more customers.
That’s why a technology-sharing partnership between the two companies is positive. While, they continue to compete, the partnership – specifically related to the use of BYD’s LFP battery technology in certain low-cost Tesla models – remains a positive for Tesla as it allows them to diversify their battery supply chain, reduce production costs, and enhance range for their lower-cost models.
LOW-COST MODELS COMING SOONER THAN EXPECTED
A recent hurdle for Tesla has been delay behind the upcoming low-cost Model 2 vehicle which plays a pivotal role in Tesla’s growth strategy. According to a Reuters report , Tesla had opted to cancel or indefinitely postpone plans for the upcoming Model 2. Instead, it would focus its attention on Robo-Taxis. The low-cost car represented the next phase of Musk’s long-term master plan to produce affordable electric vehicles through manufacturing process improvements.
Fears were that fierce competition in the low-cost category by Chinese manufacturers would make Tesla’s efforts unfeasible.
Yet, Elon Musk disputed the Reuters report and at the Q1 earnings investor call, it was verified. The Model 2 strategy is still on track. In fact, it may come sooner than expected at the end of 2024. Musk stated that Tesla was accelerating the launch of more affordable models that will be available to produce on its existing manufacturing lines.
Tesla aims to fully utilize its current production capacity towards these efforts and grow manufacturing 50% over 2023 before they start investing in new manufacturing lines.
Additionally, the robo-taxi push is also underway. Elon Musk stated that Tesla will launch its long-awaited robo-taxi product as soon as 8/August/2024. The autonomous driving robo-taxis will earn revenue for their owners. Moreover, owners will be able to add their Tesla's to the robo-taxi shared fleet with just one click on the Tesla app.
BEARISH CLOUDS PERSIST
Despite these recent developments, the outlook for Tesla remains undeniably cloudy. At its Q1 earnings, Tesla reported dismal results. But it’s not just Tesla which is struggling, it’s the wider EV industry.
EARNINGS SUMMARY
Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report released on 23/April revealed a challenging quarter marked by margin compression and a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales, influenced by strategic price cuts and broader economic factors.
Financially, Tesla reported a reduction in its automotive gross margin to 17.4%, down from previous quarter, reflecting the impact of significant price reductions across its model lineup intended to stimulate demand amid a softening global market.
These price adjustments, while successful in driving a short-term uptick in sales volumes, did not fully counterbalance the revenue per unit loss, leading to an overall revenue of $21.3 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, both figures below analyst expectations. Quarterly revenue and deliveries were the lowest since 2022.
One of the bright spots has been Tesla’s efforts to control costs. Not only did the company recently announce layoffs. It also stated that it would slow the growth of its Supercharger network to bring costs under control.
Moreover, investors were not as concerned about the concerning financials following the investor call where Musk re-affirmed Tesla’s long-term strategy while maintaining that Tesla would remain lean by producing the new lineup on existing manufacturing lines, assuaging fears of spiraling costs.
Critical to note that it is not just Tesla which struggled in Q1. BYD also reported that its profits fell 47% YoY. Vehicle sales also slowed QoQ. It is the wider industry that is experiencing a slowdown.
Unfortunately for Tesla, margin compression is more concerning for it compared to its Chinese competitors. Particularly as Chinese manufacturers are able to keep costs lower with help from government subsidies. Not only does the Chinese government offer direct subsidies to manufacturers, it also offers subsidies for EV buyers in China which has led to a boom in EV sales, which has benefited Chinese EV manufacturers.
Economic slowdown from high interest rates and a domestic slowdown in China may keep EV sales subdued for some time. In which case, Tesla would be forced to continue with its price cuts which would continue to pressure margins.
TESLA'S FINANCES STRAINED UNTIL AFFORDABLE MODEL LAUNCH
With recent positive news, Tesla stock has recovered sharply. Yet, it remains one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 YTD.
Bearish clouds persist for Tesla as margin compression continues due to competitive price cuts by Tesla. Amid an industry-wide sales slowdown, Tesla may be forced to continue with its strategy to offer price discounts on its cars, keeping its margins pressured. Moreover, Tesla continues to face pressure from low-cost Chinese EVs until it can launch its own low cost models.
While, Tesla’s new models are expected sooner than expected, they are still several quarters away. In the meantime, fundamental factors are likely to continue impacting Tesla’s profitability and subsequently its stock.
TESLA Has Elon made his miracle again? 4 month Resistance brokenNews quickly broke out that Tesla (TSLA) has received tentative approval from Beijing to launch its driver assistance software in China. This development occurred during a surprise visit by CEO Elon Musk to Tesla's largest market outside the US. Chinese authorities have agreed to allow Tesla to introduce its Full Self Driving (FSD) solution, leveraging mapping and navigation technology from Baidu (BIDU), the Chinese tech giant. This has so far pushed Tesla's shares more than +7.00% premarket.
Just 2 weeks ago (April 15, see chart below), while TSLA's price was at $166, we made a case why a potential 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) bullish break-out after laying off more than 10% of its staff, could be its 'META moment', just like the social media giant did in November 2022 and bottomed:
Of course each case has its differences but as we can see, Tesla did make a similar bottom on April 22 and will most likely open above the 1D MA50 today for the first time in almost 4 months (since January 08 2024)!
That is a major bullish break-out for at least the medium-term as each time the stock did that in 2023, it didn't stop there and rather went for a Lower High on the dotted trend-line. Technically it should make contact with as least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), in order to allow the market given the fundamentals at the time to decide upon the longer term trend.
As you can see, there is a huge Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI, which has been trading within a Channel Up against the price's Channel Down since late January. As a result we set a minimum $210.00 Target on a 6-week horizon and then we will re-evaluate the longer term on the 1W time-frame.
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Where Does TSLA Land?
Trend
- Downtrend confirmed.
- Components of the channel chart:
The original downtrend channel plus a 100% extended channel.
Both channels divided in half by blue dotted lines.
The shaded zones furthest from the center represent "overbought/oversold forces," which counterbalance each other.
- Currently, the price is descending into the extended channel, suggesting a chance of reaching the lower band of the extended channel.
- Note that when the price enters the orange shaded zone, it could move rapidly in one direction, as there is minimal previous support and resistance.
- The trend lines serve as potential support and resistance levels.
100% Symmetrical Projection: Downtrend “N” Patterns
- A 100% Symmetrical Projection of the previous swing (from A to B) and then projected from C. As a result, D is the initial target price on the short side.
- The 0.5 level from C to D serves as a clear support, enhancing the value of this projection.
N Pattern’s Target Price & Fibonacci Price Cluster
- The target price of $116 at level D aligns with a major prior low on the weekly chart.
- Levels 1 & 2 are significant due to the price cluster effect, demonstrating the validity of the extension of the prior major swing.
- Consequently, Level 3 has a good chance of becoming a critical support and a potential target price.
Conclusion
- In comparison with symmetrical analysis, TSLA's trend channel chart provides higher reference value.
- The dynamic target price is the lower band of the extended channel.
- The fixed target price (strong support) could be $122, followed by $116.
Not Financial Advice
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
TESLA: Oversold. Can the price cuts stop the bleeding?Tesla announced aggressive price cuts globally on their main model lines as well as its FSD and is reported that a 20% headcount reduction is pushed. Further decline on today's opening has pushed the 1W technical outlook to the brink of oversold territory (RSI = 32.105, MACD = -19.430, ADX = 47.504) and bottom of Channel Down that started last July.
So can these brave measures to a dismal Q1 delivery report counter the declining global demand and price competition from Chinese EV producers and restore the stock price to where it was earlier this year?
Well one thing's for sure, TSLA has been in this situation before. The growth pattern from 2019 to today is very much like the one from 2012 to 2017. Both started with immense parabolic growth that peaked and declined towards the 0.382 Fibonacci and rallied again after forming a bottom. We are now at the stage where Tesla founf support in late 2016 near the 0.786 Fib of the corrective wave. The 1W RSI patterns are similar as well.
As long as the 0.786 Fib holds we expect at least $500 by mid 2025. It is very likely that tomorrow's earnings report coupled with the price cuts will be the fundamental base that the company needs to restore investing appetite back. On the long term this appears to be a worthwhile low risk entry for the undisputable leader of the EV market.
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