RIVIAN Time to get bearish despite the VW $5 billion investment?Rivian Automotive (RIVN) reached today as high as $16.35 following Volkswagen's $5 Billion investment and got just shy of our $17.00 long-term target, as we called on our last analysis (May 17, see chart below):
Despite the excellent news, we have to call for caution this time as the technicals come in center stage. As you can see, the prevailing long-term pattern remains a Channel Down since the September 2022 High and unless the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) breaks and closes a 1W candle above it, we won't continue buying.
We change now our outlook to medium-term bearish and expect a rounded top to be formed below the 1W MA100 in the next 3 weeks, which we will sell and target the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel level at $13.50. Check also how the 1D RSI sequences between the current and the previous Lower High formation in July 2023 are similar.
Add to the bearish mix the fact that today's rise stopped exactly on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). In any case, as mentioned, we are only willing to buy after a 1W MA100 break, in which case we will target $28.00 (just below Resistance 2).
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Electricvehicles
75: Identifying Support around €13.36 Amidst Selling PressureCurrently, we are witnessing selling pressure on the Fastned stock without significant buying interest. However, by examining historical data, we can identify a point of interest around the €13.36 level. This area has previously acted as a support zone, making it a potential accumulation point.
Recent developments support this analysis. Fastned recently raised €32.9 million through the issuance of new bonds, with €12.3 million coming from existing investors extending their bond maturities. This successful fundraising indicates a growing interest and confidence from private investors in Fastned’s long-term potential.
Given this backdrop, we anticipate that the €13.36 level could attract accumulation as investors recognize the company's ongoing investments in the fast-charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. As more motorists transition to electric vehicles, the demand for Fastned's services is expected to increase, potentially driving the stock's recovery.
Monitor the €13.36 level closely for signs of accumulation and potential buying opportunities, considering the growing interest and financial backing Fastned is receiving.
TESLA Huge Inverse Head & Shoulders ahead of Musk's $56B vote!Tesla (TSLA) broke today above its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in more than 5 months (since January 04) and ahead of Musk's $56 billion today, seems to be completing an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern.
Technically this is a pattern seen in major market bottom's. This time it is being formed within the broader pattern of the Bearish Megaphone. A standard 2.0 Fibonacci extension Target would test the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of that Megaphone, considerably above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, our medium-term Target is $225.00, marginally below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
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Tesla - Indecision with the triangleNASDAQ:TSLA has been consolidating for almost 4 years and is definitely ready for a breakout!
+3.300% was the previous rally on Tesla which started back in 2019. But at the moment Tesla is not looking bullish whatsoever, considering that Tesla is trading at the same level as it was about four years ago. However, there is a long term descending triangle formation forming and therefore it is quite likely that we will (soon) see a breakout, either towards the upside or towards the downside.
Levels to watch: $210, $120
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Xiaomi Drops but Strong Results & EV Entry Are SupportiveThe stock of Xiaomi posts its first losing week in more than a month, despite its mostly strong quarterly results on Thursday and the upgraded guidance on EV deliveries. The drop likely reflects the broader decline of the Hang Seng Index due to geopolitical concerns. It also makes sense from a technical standpoint, since it had reached highly overbought levels.
It is now at a critical technical juncture, as it tests the 50 line on the RSI and is exposed to the 38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s advance. A breach of these levels would open the door to deeper correction that could challenge the EMA200 (black line) and the Ichimoku Cloud, but these levels can contains such moves.
However, Xiaomi reported a 27% y/y increase in revenue in Q1 and 37.6% y/y rise in operating profits. Furthermore, its smartphone shipments increased and the No 3 maker globally can benefit from the expected recovery of the market, following last year’s contraction.
Most importantly, the Chinese smartphone maker made its foray into electric vehicles this year, continuing to diversify and search for new growth markets. Demand for its SU7 sedan, deliveries of which began in late March, has been very high. It has already handed over 10,000 vehicles since May 15 and aims to deliver more than 100K units this year.
Its entry into EVs has fueled a rally in its stock and can drive further gains. Even if there is risk of deeper pullback, the path of least resistance is higher, especially if the 38.2% Fibonacci holds.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
RIVIAN Accumulation before mega rally.Last month (April 18, see chart below), we called for a short-term buy on Rivian Automotive (RIVN) but expected one more pull-back before the absolute bottom:
Since however the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and closed a 1D candle above it too, we have to revise it and we consider April's low to be the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Down pattern.
As a result, we expect a short-term Accumulation Phase, similar to May - June 2023, before an aggressive rally towards the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern. Our target is $17.00 (just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
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Tesla - Is it a fakeout?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Tesla.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2020 we had a decent break and retest on Tesla stock which was followed by a pump of +1.500% towards the upside. Then Tesla topped out in 2021 and we saw sideways movement ever since. At the moment Tesla stock is trading in a bullish flag formation and is hovering around the psychological $200 level. Soon there will be a very interesting trading opportunity on Tesla stock.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Tesla among top 10 losers. Next what?Tesla is the 7th worst performer YTD in the Nasdaq-100. It is the 11th worst performer in the S&P 500. The stock stands 28% lower.
Still, after reaching its lowest level on 22/April, the stock has rallied a remarkable 30%. On 24/April, the stock rallied 12% after the positive earnings call. On 29/April, the stock jumped another 15% after the announcement of the Baidu ( HKEX:9888 ) partnership.
Yet in the longer term, outlook remains cloudy as margin compression owing to fierce competition from Chinese EV makers and the wider EV industry slowdown.
MUSK'S CHINA VISIT LEADS TO BAIDU DEAL
Last Sunday, Elon Musk flew to China on a surprise visit. The last minute visit led to speculation over a push to launch full self driving (FSD) in China.
Persons close to the matter stated that Musk was expected to discuss the rollout of FSD software and permission to transfer data overseas, as reported in Reuters .
One of the key hold-ups for the rollout of FSD in China has been access to map data. Musk’s recent trip seems to have addressed that as Tesla announced a partnership with Baidu for map data access. While, Musk has long claimed that Teslas will be able to run FSD without map data, this will allow them to roll-out the offering much sooner and boost the slowing revenue in one of their leading markets in China.
FSD has been a recent revenue driver for Tesla. In 2024, Siena Capital analysts estimated that Tesla recognized almost USD 700 million in revenue, which represents 4.3% of their automotive revenue after stripping regulatory credits.
BYD PARTNERSHIP
Another strategic partnership that has helped boost investor sentiment at Tesla has been the strategic partnership with BYD ( HKEX:1211 ).
While both companies are major competitors, BYD recently overtook Tesla as the largest EV manufacturer in terms of overall vehicle sales (including hybrids). However, the fierce competition has also taken a toll on both companies as it has led to price cuts to win over more customers.
That’s why a technology-sharing partnership between the two companies is positive. While, they continue to compete, the partnership – specifically related to the use of BYD’s LFP battery technology in certain low-cost Tesla models – remains a positive for Tesla as it allows them to diversify their battery supply chain, reduce production costs, and enhance range for their lower-cost models.
LOW-COST MODELS COMING SOONER THAN EXPECTED
A recent hurdle for Tesla has been delay behind the upcoming low-cost Model 2 vehicle which plays a pivotal role in Tesla’s growth strategy. According to a Reuters report , Tesla had opted to cancel or indefinitely postpone plans for the upcoming Model 2. Instead, it would focus its attention on Robo-Taxis. The low-cost car represented the next phase of Musk’s long-term master plan to produce affordable electric vehicles through manufacturing process improvements.
Fears were that fierce competition in the low-cost category by Chinese manufacturers would make Tesla’s efforts unfeasible.
Yet, Elon Musk disputed the Reuters report and at the Q1 earnings investor call, it was verified. The Model 2 strategy is still on track. In fact, it may come sooner than expected at the end of 2024. Musk stated that Tesla was accelerating the launch of more affordable models that will be available to produce on its existing manufacturing lines.
Tesla aims to fully utilize its current production capacity towards these efforts and grow manufacturing 50% over 2023 before they start investing in new manufacturing lines.
Additionally, the robo-taxi push is also underway. Elon Musk stated that Tesla will launch its long-awaited robo-taxi product as soon as 8/August/2024. The autonomous driving robo-taxis will earn revenue for their owners. Moreover, owners will be able to add their Tesla's to the robo-taxi shared fleet with just one click on the Tesla app.
BEARISH CLOUDS PERSIST
Despite these recent developments, the outlook for Tesla remains undeniably cloudy. At its Q1 earnings, Tesla reported dismal results. But it’s not just Tesla which is struggling, it’s the wider EV industry.
EARNINGS SUMMARY
Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report released on 23/April revealed a challenging quarter marked by margin compression and a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales, influenced by strategic price cuts and broader economic factors.
Financially, Tesla reported a reduction in its automotive gross margin to 17.4%, down from previous quarter, reflecting the impact of significant price reductions across its model lineup intended to stimulate demand amid a softening global market.
These price adjustments, while successful in driving a short-term uptick in sales volumes, did not fully counterbalance the revenue per unit loss, leading to an overall revenue of $21.3 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, both figures below analyst expectations. Quarterly revenue and deliveries were the lowest since 2022.
One of the bright spots has been Tesla’s efforts to control costs. Not only did the company recently announce layoffs. It also stated that it would slow the growth of its Supercharger network to bring costs under control.
Moreover, investors were not as concerned about the concerning financials following the investor call where Musk re-affirmed Tesla’s long-term strategy while maintaining that Tesla would remain lean by producing the new lineup on existing manufacturing lines, assuaging fears of spiraling costs.
Critical to note that it is not just Tesla which struggled in Q1. BYD also reported that its profits fell 47% YoY. Vehicle sales also slowed QoQ. It is the wider industry that is experiencing a slowdown.
Unfortunately for Tesla, margin compression is more concerning for it compared to its Chinese competitors. Particularly as Chinese manufacturers are able to keep costs lower with help from government subsidies. Not only does the Chinese government offer direct subsidies to manufacturers, it also offers subsidies for EV buyers in China which has led to a boom in EV sales, which has benefited Chinese EV manufacturers.
Economic slowdown from high interest rates and a domestic slowdown in China may keep EV sales subdued for some time. In which case, Tesla would be forced to continue with its price cuts which would continue to pressure margins.
TESLA'S FINANCES STRAINED UNTIL AFFORDABLE MODEL LAUNCH
With recent positive news, Tesla stock has recovered sharply. Yet, it remains one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 YTD.
Bearish clouds persist for Tesla as margin compression continues due to competitive price cuts by Tesla. Amid an industry-wide sales slowdown, Tesla may be forced to continue with its strategy to offer price discounts on its cars, keeping its margins pressured. Moreover, Tesla continues to face pressure from low-cost Chinese EVs until it can launch its own low cost models.
While, Tesla’s new models are expected sooner than expected, they are still several quarters away. In the meantime, fundamental factors are likely to continue impacting Tesla’s profitability and subsequently its stock.
TESLA Has Elon made his miracle again? 4 month Resistance brokenNews quickly broke out that Tesla (TSLA) has received tentative approval from Beijing to launch its driver assistance software in China. This development occurred during a surprise visit by CEO Elon Musk to Tesla's largest market outside the US. Chinese authorities have agreed to allow Tesla to introduce its Full Self Driving (FSD) solution, leveraging mapping and navigation technology from Baidu (BIDU), the Chinese tech giant. This has so far pushed Tesla's shares more than +7.00% premarket.
Just 2 weeks ago (April 15, see chart below), while TSLA's price was at $166, we made a case why a potential 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) bullish break-out after laying off more than 10% of its staff, could be its 'META moment', just like the social media giant did in November 2022 and bottomed:
Of course each case has its differences but as we can see, Tesla did make a similar bottom on April 22 and will most likely open above the 1D MA50 today for the first time in almost 4 months (since January 08 2024)!
That is a major bullish break-out for at least the medium-term as each time the stock did that in 2023, it didn't stop there and rather went for a Lower High on the dotted trend-line. Technically it should make contact with as least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), in order to allow the market given the fundamentals at the time to decide upon the longer term trend.
As you can see, there is a huge Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI, which has been trading within a Channel Up against the price's Channel Down since late January. As a result we set a minimum $210.00 Target on a 6-week horizon and then we will re-evaluate the longer term on the 1W time-frame.
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Where Does TSLA Land?
Trend
- Downtrend confirmed.
- Components of the channel chart:
The original downtrend channel plus a 100% extended channel.
Both channels divided in half by blue dotted lines.
The shaded zones furthest from the center represent "overbought/oversold forces," which counterbalance each other.
- Currently, the price is descending into the extended channel, suggesting a chance of reaching the lower band of the extended channel.
- Note that when the price enters the orange shaded zone, it could move rapidly in one direction, as there is minimal previous support and resistance.
- The trend lines serve as potential support and resistance levels.
100% Symmetrical Projection: Downtrend “N” Patterns
- A 100% Symmetrical Projection of the previous swing (from A to B) and then projected from C. As a result, D is the initial target price on the short side.
- The 0.5 level from C to D serves as a clear support, enhancing the value of this projection.
N Pattern’s Target Price & Fibonacci Price Cluster
- The target price of $116 at level D aligns with a major prior low on the weekly chart.
- Levels 1 & 2 are significant due to the price cluster effect, demonstrating the validity of the extension of the prior major swing.
- Consequently, Level 3 has a good chance of becoming a critical support and a potential target price.
Conclusion
- In comparison with symmetrical analysis, TSLA's trend channel chart provides higher reference value.
- The dynamic target price is the lower band of the extended channel.
- The fixed target price (strong support) could be $122, followed by $116.
Not Financial Advice
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
TESLA: Oversold. Can the price cuts stop the bleeding?Tesla announced aggressive price cuts globally on their main model lines as well as its FSD and is reported that a 20% headcount reduction is pushed. Further decline on today's opening has pushed the 1W technical outlook to the brink of oversold territory (RSI = 32.105, MACD = -19.430, ADX = 47.504) and bottom of Channel Down that started last July.
So can these brave measures to a dismal Q1 delivery report counter the declining global demand and price competition from Chinese EV producers and restore the stock price to where it was earlier this year?
Well one thing's for sure, TSLA has been in this situation before. The growth pattern from 2019 to today is very much like the one from 2012 to 2017. Both started with immense parabolic growth that peaked and declined towards the 0.382 Fibonacci and rallied again after forming a bottom. We are now at the stage where Tesla founf support in late 2016 near the 0.786 Fib of the corrective wave. The 1W RSI patterns are similar as well.
As long as the 0.786 Fib holds we expect at least $500 by mid 2025. It is very likely that tomorrow's earnings report coupled with the price cuts will be the fundamental base that the company needs to restore investing appetite back. On the long term this appears to be a worthwhile low risk entry for the undisputable leader of the EV market.
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RIVIAN Last bounce before the bottom. Be ready to buy.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the September 15 2022 High. The price action has been below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for more than 3 months (January 11) and with such aggressive selling, the price is approaching the bottom of the pattern.
With the 1D RSI on Higher Lows (Bullish Divergence) we expect a dead-cat-bounce towards the 1D MA50 on the 0.236 Fibonacci Channel level and then structure bottom around 7.80. That will be the time to go heavy on buys and target $17.00 (Fibonacci 0.618, which is where the last Lower High was priced at).
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TESLA Is this a W-shaped recovery?Tesla (TSLA) held Support 1 (160.50) last Friday, in fact it touched it and rebounded immediately making a technical Double Bottom formation. Yesterday it broke and closed above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 04, providing s serious bullish continuation signal.
The most important development however, is that this Double Bottom has strong probabilities of giving a W-shaped recovery pattern. A break above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) will technically confirm that, as it will be the first time above it in 3 months (since January 09).
We can already see the 4H RSI on Higher Lows, i.e. a Bullish Divergence, which favors these probabilities. Our short-term Target is 205.00 (marginally below Resistance 2).
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TESLA Can it break the 1D MA50 and sustain an uptrend?Tesla has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern since the July 19 2023 High. The recent Low (March 14 2024) came very close to the 152.50 Support, which is the April 27 2023 Low. This shows just how strong the current bearish structure is.
Medium-term traders/ investors can expect a sustainable uptrend only when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, which has been the Resistance all this time since January 09 2024 (almost 3 months). If it does break above it, we expect a +41.50% rise from the bottom (+5% more than the previous Bullish Leg), targeting $225.00. That is considered conservative based on the margins of the Bearish Megaphone as the previous two Lower Highs were priced on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
The fact that the 1D MACD has already formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.00 level, favors statistically the upside case, as in the past 12 months such a signal failed to break above the 1D MA50 only once out of 4 times in total.
Until it does break it though, the trend remains bearish short-term towards Support 1 (152.50).
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75: Exploring the Electric Vehicle and Copper ConnectionIn the ever-evolving landscape of the financial markets, the intersection between Electric Vehicles (EVs) and copper presents a compelling narrative. As interest in EVs surges, propelled by advancements in technology and a global shift towards sustainability, the demand for key components such as copper intensifies.
Recent market dynamics have seen a lack of enthusiasm for EV stocks, prompting car manufacturers to implement price reductions to stimulate sales. However, this move signifies a strategic pivot rather than a sign of weakness, as companies aim to bolster revenues for further investment in the burgeoning EV sector.
Crucially, the production of EV batteries heavily relies on copper, emphasizing its integral role in the industry. Consequently, a resurgence in copper demand is anticipated, driven by the expanding EV market and the broader digitalization trend.
Technical analysis reveals copper's struggle to breach the 4.12 level, hinting at potential downside movements. Key support zones are identified around 3.37 and 2.83, where increased buying interest in copper is expected. These levels coincide with opportune entry points for investors eyeing the EV sector, as copper targets new highs, with an ambitious target of 6.49.
We can see that the convergence of EVs and copper presents a compelling trading opportunity. As the EV market continues to evolve, savvy investors can capitalize on the interplay between these sectors for potential gains.
Institutional purchase at $165 : I hope I'm not mistaken.I bought earlier because I couldn't manage my emotions hahaha. Since it was at 210 or 215, I had placed my orders at $165, but I couldn't resist FOMO during the drop lol.
Earnings are forecast to grow 10.62% per year
Earnings grew by 19.2% over the past year
Worldwide misunderstanding for Polestar 😄Trading at 87.5% below our estimate of its fair value
Revenue is forecast to grow 35.64% per year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Risk:
Negative shareholders equity
Has less than 1 year of cash runway
Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years
Volatile share price over the past 3 months
Polestar has tried everything. Collaboration with Renault to "sublet" production plants (future plant in South Korea). Breakaway from Volvo. Lower prices for Polestar 3 and 4 cars. But nothing worked. The stock continues to sleep, brain-dead.
The shorts keep piling up, day after day after day...
As a huge investor in this stock, I myself look away. I start buying a China ETF, Porsche, European stocks like Nestlé or Swatch or Zalando or Kering... no one in my entourage can hear about Polestar anymore haha
TESLA just set the new target down to $100 - Problems for EVsTechnically we see an M Formation on Tesla.
The price broke below the neckline and the price is both below the 20MA and the 200MA.
The nature of this analysis is HIGH probability.
We, can set the first target to $100 and then next to $80. And if it breaks further we are talking $60....
But let's see.
There is fire in the EV space. With crashes, glitches, malfunctions, issues with snow, unable to track correctly objects on the streets and identifying.
There are also issues with having parts reordered when they breakdown.
And Elon is focussing more of his attention on X and SPace X. So this is not convincing and promising to shareholders to keep holding.
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche P911 (still long)Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations
Full year 2023 results:
Revenue: €40.5b (up 7.7% from FY 2022).
Net income: €5.16b (up 4.2% from FY 2022).
Profit margin: 13% (in line with FY 2022).
Revenue was in line with analyst estimates.
Revenue is forecast to grow 5.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.9% growth forecast for the Auto industry in Germany.
NIO BACK TO 10 BY 2025 !!NIO’s stock has potential for growth in the coming years due to several factors:
Analyst Predictions: The 8 analysts with 12-month price forecasts for NIO Inc. stock have an average target of 11.31, predicting an increase of 95.67% from the current stock price1.
Earnings and Revenue Growth: NIO is forecasted to grow earnings and revenue by 55.5% and 22.4% per annum respectively2.
Competitive Positioning: NIO is a significant player in the electric vehicle market, which is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. It has been able to position itself as a strong competitor, even causing disruptions for established players like Tesla