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Eliottwavetheory

No Clear Break Yet – Bounce or Bigger Correction?There haven’t been any major changes in Bitcoin’s directional structure compared to yesterday. We saw a rebound while successfully holding the local low set during yesterday’s early morning session, and price action has followed the expected path quite well—reaching into the resistance zone and reacting accordingly. The recent rebound from the $100,700 low may offer enough of a recovery move, but for a sustained continuation to the upside, we now need to see price hold the first support zone between $103,000 and $102,000, and ideally also preserve the second support around $101,500. However, even if these support zones hold, failure to break previous highs could still result in another downward leg—potentially leading to a break back below $100K. This is an important scenario to keep in mind. In short, we still need to determine whether this bounce is: The completion of a correction wave and the start of a new uptrend or Just a temporary rebound before a deeper correction unfolds on the higher timeframe. Even if we see meaningful bullish movement on the lower timeframes, it must also be confirmed across higher timeframes to be reliable. This is not a zone to hold blindly with blind optimism—whether long or short, if you’re in profit after a solid wave, consider partial profit-taking and manage your position proactively. At the moment, the market remains in a range-bound structure, with neither the highs nor the lows broken decisively. I recommend using today’s update in conjunction with yesterday’s analysis—it will help you better understand the current structure, improve your positioning, and support your trading decisions.
Short
by GoldenCloud_Jude
Caught the Short? CPI Ahead, and This Pullback Isn’t Over YetIf you’ve been following the recent updates, I believe you were well-prepared for this move. For the past few days, I repeatedly emphasized that we may not break through the supply zone in one go—and now, those who entered short positions likely enjoyed some solid profits. Currently, we’re seeing a strong rebound from the second support zone. This is the first real, sharp correction we’ve seen since the strong bullish trend began from the 74K–83K region, and that alone should remind us to proceed with caution going forward. To maintain the broader uptrend, the market needs to do one of two things: Either preserve the local low formed during the latest drop and climb from there (ideal scenario), Or, if it dips lower once more, form a sideways base before recovering again. This structure would confirm that the trend remains healthy and intact. Right now, we must assess whether this bounce leads to continuation or if it’s just a relief rally before a deeper wave down. If we break the structure and revisit previous demand zones, we want to see price hold and reverse from those levels—that’s the key confirmation. The previous slow grind-up ("step-by-step climb") has now been disrupted. This shift increases the likelihood of a deeper retracement before any new highs, especially with today's CPI data potentially triggering strong volatility and head-fake moves in both directions. If price fails to push higher from here, we may see a breakdown below the psychological 100K level. We’re still observing a bearish structure on the lower timeframes, as the price fails to make higher highs—so please, avoid jumping into positions impulsively. This is the correction we’ve been waiting for, and those who followed the updates likely navigated it well. However, be aware: When a market climbs on strong green candles, the subsequent drop can be equally harsh, especially if profit-taking meets negative macro headlines. So, wait for confirmation—whether it’s a bounce that protects support or a break that reclaims structure. Entering after such confirmation will always get you better entries than acting out of fear. As I’ve said many times: You don’t need to FOMO into every pump. Opportunities always come again. And history shows us—trading out of impatience or greed rarely ends well. Stay focused, stay patient, and I hope your next trade brings another solid win.
Long
by GoldenCloud_Jude
Dogecoin Daily Chart Analysis: A Fresh Start Ahead ?Hello friends, let's analyze Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency, from an Elliott Wave perspective. This study uses Elliott Wave theory and structures, involving multiple possibilities. The analysis focuses on one potential scenario and is for educational purposes only, not trading advice. We're observing the daily chart, and it appears we're nearing the end of Wave II, a correction. The red cycle degree Wave I ended around 2024 December's peak. Currently, we're nearing the end of red Wave II, which consists of black ((W)), ((X)), and ((Y)) waves. Black ((W)) and ((X)) are complete, and black ((Y)) is nearing its end. Within black ((Y)), we have Intermediate degree blue (W), (X), and (Y) waves. Blue (W) and (X) are complete, and blue (Y) is nearing its end. Inside blue (Y), red A and B are complete, and red C is nearing its end. Once red C completes, blue (Y) will end, Once blue (Y) completes, means black ((W)) will end that means higher degree cycle wave II in red will end. If our view remains correct, the invalidation level for this Elliott Wave count is 0.04913. If this level holds and doesn't touch below it, we can expect a significant reversal to unfold wave III towards new highs. This is an educational analysis, and I hope you've learned something by observing the chart and its texture. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Education
by RK_Chaarts
4
TLT BONDS ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - MOVE FORWARD©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master Designation). Conclusion: TLT BONDS continues to move higher, expected at 90.92 - 92.63. Wave 1-grey may have just ended, and wave 2-grey is starting to move higher as ((a))((b))((c))-navy, expected to target around 90.92 - 92.63. While price must remain below 94.85 to maintain this Bearish view. On the other hand, the ALT scenario shows no further push lower, instead, wave (B)-orange has just ended, and wave (C)-orange is moving much higher, expected to reach 101.64. The key to triggering the ALT is a break above the 92.63 level.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ShaneHua
GOLD (GC1!) ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - FLAT PATTERN BEARISH©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master Designation). Conclusion: The previously mentioned ALT wave count scenario is triggered, gold continues to fall lower with a ((c))-navy wave. Probability assessment: Main wave count scenario. Forecast direction: Pushing much lower. Long-term bullish potential: Not really, the ((c))-navy wave can move to lower targets; therefore the medium-term outlook is bearish. Details: We are moving down with a ((c))-navy wave in a flat pattern of 4-grey wave. The decline will move to a target of 2,671.0 and then 2,596.7. While the price must remain below 2,794.8 to maintain this view. Invalidation Point: 2,794.8.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by ShaneHua
BTCUSDT ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 23 JAN, 2025 - DOUBLE THREE©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation). Risk Analysis / Risk Assessment: - Major Trend: Bullish - Which Wave Count Scenario Has Higher Probability: Definitely the Main Wave Count Scenario. - Should I Go Long?: No, Not Now. - When to Confirm Bullish Trend with High Probability?: On Breakout Above 107,240. Details: Since the 89,0256.69 Low, we are witnessing a corrective wave following the completed wave (i)-orange, which I mentioned in my last analysis of BTC, so this is a good opportunity to review the upcoming outlook. Wave (ii)-orange is completing as a Combination Double Three. Its y-grey wave may need a little more time to complete as a Triangle, then wave (iii)-orange will move higher. Alternative scenario: Wave (ii)-orange has ended, and wave (iii)-orange has started. (Less likely, lower probability). Conclusion: Need a little more time. Or when the price breaks through 107.240, it will immediately trigger the alternative scenario ALT, and wave (iii)-orange can move much higher.
Long
by ShaneHua
1
GOLD (GC1!) ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - TRIANGLE PATTERN©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation). The context suggests that we are inside the 4-grey wave, as the 3-grey wave ended at the high of 2,801.2. The 4H chart shows that we are inside the 4th wave in grey, based on some data on the current price action, it looks like a Sidewaves pattern and is narrowing over time. So it suggests to me the view of an unfolding Triangle. The ((d))-navy wave is probably close to completing its role by creating the resistance level ((b)),((d))-navy, but this view is not strong, so at the moment in gold, there are at least several different wave counts at work at the same time. Let's look at the alternative view of ALT, which also shows that the 4-grey wave is not showing any signs of ending, but instead developing as a Flat, its ((b))-navy wave will move higher.
COMEX:GC1!
by ShaneHua
GOLD (GC1!) ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - TRIANGLE PATTERNThe context suggests that we are inside the 4-grey wave, as the 3-grey wave ended at the high of 2,801.2. I see that the 4-gray wave is taking a long time, and is probably getting forming narrower as time goes on, as well as its subwaves have a lot of Three-waves, which directly suggests to me the idea of ​​a Triangle (3-3-3-3-3 or ABCDE). A closer look, the ((a))-navy to ((c))-navy, and the ((d))-navy wave is actually not over yet but continues to grow to go a little higher . That could indicate that the resistance levels at 2,761.3 play an important role, which is also the ideal stopping point of the ((d))-navy wave. After that, the ((e))-navy wave will move lower. furthermore.
COMEX:GC1!
by ShaneHua
1
GOLD (GC1!) ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - TRIANGLE PATTERNCHARTS OF THE DAY ©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation). The context suggests that we are inside a 4-grey wave, as the 3-grey wave ended at the high of 2,801.2. I see that the 4-grey wave is taking a long time, and is probably getting narrower as time goes on, as well as its subwaves have a lot of Three-waves, which directly suggests to me the idea of ​​a Triangle forming (3-3-3-3-3 or ABCDE). A closer look suggests that the ((a))-navy to ((d))-navy wave is probably completed, and we are inside a ((e))-navy wave. It will continue to aim for the nearest target at 2,633.8 (Wave ((e))-navy = 0.618 x wave ((c))-navy - this is a fibonacci multiple ratio of subwaves in the triangle pattern). Wave ((e))-navy will develop as a Zigzag. So, in the coming time, gold may move up with wave 5-grey, but not yet, because it needs more time to complete this Triangle pattern. While the price must always remain lower than the high of 2,734.2 to maintain the short-term bearish view with the Triangle pattern.
COMEX:GC1!
by ShaneHua
ASX:FPH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation). We see that ASX:FPH stock is about to complete a Triangle with wave 4, and prepare for the push up with wave 5. This analysis will guide you through the key points and important price levels to know the upcoming important market movements in the most intuitive way. Details: The 4H chart shows a more detailed representation of the Triangle of wave (4)-orange. I guess it is probably coming to an end, and preparing to end this fourth wave, so be ready for wave (5)-orange to return. A push above 35.45 would add weight and confidence to this view. Conversely, no push above, instead a break through the end of wave C-grey would eliminate the bullish view of wave (5)-orange. Invalidation point: The end of Wave C-grey Confirmation point: 35.45
ASX:FPHLong
by ShaneHua
ASX:COH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - 8 JAN, 2025 - BULLISH©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master. Function: Major trend (Minor degree, grey) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave (y)-orange of Wave ((2))-navy Details: Looking closer, wave (2)-orange looks like it is developing as a Flat labeled A,B,C-grey, and we still have a push lower with wave C-grey. Then wave (3)-orange will return to head higher. On the other hand, the rapid and strong penetration of the 309.63 high directly suggests that wave (3)-orange in the ALT alternative scenario is probably unfolding. Invalidation point: 17.80 Confirmation point: 19.65
ASX:COH
by ShaneHua
GOLD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 07 JAN, 2025©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master. Wave (ii)-orange may have finished and wave (iii)-orange is pushing lower, aiming for the nearest target around 2,608.4. While price must remain below 2,681.0 to maintain this view. On the other hand, the alternative scenario ALT (less likely), suggests that wave ((b))-navy in another development has completed, and wave ((c))-navy will move higher. A push above 2,681.0 would indicate this.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by ShaneHua
Bitcoin & Macro Analysis fo 2025From previous analysis, BTC on target and Hit Fibonacci Extension 1.272 at $108.000 And rejected from this area For now, BTC need pullback before continuing rally You can see pullback area at : - Fibonacci Retracement 0.236 - Fibonacci Retracement 0.386 - Fibonacci Retracement 0.5 Be cautious with your decisions, especially for 2025 , as the Dec 2024 Summary of Economic Projections release has impacted the market. Macro economic conditions are solid, but the Fed's decision left the market disappointed. After release Summary of Economic Projections Dec 18 FOMC, market was disappointed since The Fed's forecast cut rates only 2x or maybe just 1x (3.9) instead of 4x as SEP projected in September (3.4).
INDEX:BTCUSD
by kelvin_gautama9