Elliott Wave View: DAX Structure Remains BullishShort Term Elliott Wave view in DAX shows a bullish sequence structure from December 28, 2018 low, favoring further upside. The Index has potential to reach 100% extension towards 11912 – 12157 before ending cycle from December 2018 low. The rally from December 28, 2018 low is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where wave ((W)) ended at 11321.62 and wave ((X)) ended at 10865.31.
Wave ((Y)) rally is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. The first leg wave (A) of this zigzag ended at 11676.86 as 5 waves impulse. Up from 10865.31, wave 1 ended at 11217.3, wave 2 ended at 11018.95, wave 3 ended at 11556.87, wave 4 ended at 11416.08, and wave 5 of (A) ended at 11676.86. Wave (B) pullback is now in progress to correct cycle from Feb 9, 2019 low (10865.31) before Index resumes the rally higher. We are looking for 7 swings lower to complete wave (B) in 11445 – 11341 area where buyers should appear to resume the rally for new highs or produce a 3 waves bounce at least.
Elliottwavecorrection
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Should Find Buyers AgainShort Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests the rally from December 26, 2018 low (2348.50) is unfolding as an impulse. Index has ended wave ((3)) of this impulse move at 2816.88. In the chart below, we can see wave (5) of ((3)) move from 2612.42 low subdivides in 5 waves impulse of a lesser degree. Up from 2612.42 low, wave 1 ended at 2738.98 and pullback to 2681.83 ended wave 2. Index then rallied again and ended wave 3 at 2813.49. Wave 4 pullback ended at 2775.13, and wave 5 of ((3)) ended at 2816.88.
Wave ((4)) pullback of the larger degree is currently in progress before Index resumes the rally higher in wave ((5)). The internal of wave ((4)) is unfolding as a zigzag where the first leg down to 2767.66 ended wave (A). While wave (B) bounce stays below wave ((3)) at 2816.88, expect Index to turn lower to continue the zigzag correction within wave ((4)). We believe dips in the Index still can see buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for 1 more leg higher in wave ((5)) before cycle from December 20, 2018 low ends. We don’t like selling the Index.
Elliott Wave View: Short Term Bullish in AlibabaShort Term Elliott Wave view in Alibaba is bullish with the rally from February 8, 2019 low ($163.58) unfolding as an impulse. Furthermore, the cycle starting from January 23, 2019 low has not reached 100% target, thus still favoring further upside. Near term, rally from Jan 23 low to $171.05 ended wave ((i)) and pullback to $165.09 ended wave ((ii)). Wave (( iii )) ended 187.45 peak.
Up from $165.09, wave (i) ended at $172.68, wave (ii) ended at $169.8, wave ( iii ) ended at $183.72, and wave (iv) ended at $178.71. Wave (v) unfolding as an ending diagonal which ended at 187.45 peak. Below from there, the stock should now pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from Feb 19, 2019 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at $165.09 stays intact, favor more upside in Alibaba in near term.
BTC:USD WXY Correction 2013-15 & 2017-19 ComparisonSummary:
2013-2015 and 2017-2019 bear markets show a similar WXY count supported by a Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line hit and Fib Retracements confluences.
WXY Count & FIB Retracement:
Measured from the A wave of the W count, both the W wave and Y wave extend 1.272 in 2013-15 Bear Market. Similarly, measured from the A wave, both the W wave and Y wave extend 1.618 in 2017-19 Bear Market.
FIB Confluence:
In the ABC correction for the Y wave count in 2013-15 Bear Market, wave B extends .50 Fib and bottoms at the .786 extension creating a confluence at the 1.618 retracement. Similarly, in the ABC correction for the Y wave count in 2017-19 Bear Market, wave B extends .50 Fib and bottoms at a 1 to 1 extension creating a confluence at the 1.618 retracement.
Schiff Pitchfork:
The 1.272 retracement creates a confluence with the Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line (two standard deviations away from the mean). Similarly, the 1.618 retracement creates a confluence with the Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line (two standard deviations away from the mean).
Forecast:
Sideways movement to test the median line. More sideways movement to break through the median line, test it and finally break through the upper warning line, test it, find support and confirm a Bull Market Run.
Invalidation:
A rejection by the Median Line in the Schiff Pitchfork or any of the standard deviation lines or price is unable to cross and find support above 6,400 and/or cannot find support at the 200 Week Moving average as it retests it and breaks 2018 December Lows will trigger an WXYXZ correction pattern.
Elliott Wave View: Crude Oil on the Verge of a BreakoutSince bottoming at $42.36 on December 24, 2018, Crude Oil (CL_F) has rallied more than 30%. The initial rally to $55.75 on February 4, 2019 took the form of an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. We label this 5 waves rally as wave ((A)) of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure in higher degree. Then the pullback to $51.27 ended wave ((B)) as the chart below shows. From there, Oil has broken above wave ((A)), suggesting that the next leg higher in wave ((C)) has started.
Internal of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse where wave (1) ended at $57.61 and wave (2) ended at $55.02. As is typical of an impulse, we can see the fractal nature with wave (1) further subdivides into 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. Wave (2) unfolded as an Expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure where wave A ended at $56.64, wave B ended at $57.81, and wave C ended at 55.02. Oil is now within wave (3) of ((C)) and should continue higher while dips stay above $55.00, but more importantly above $51.27. This view will gain validity if Oil starts to break above February 22 peak at $57.81. We don’t like selling Oil
Bear Case If BTC Is In ABCDE TriangleI've been scalping long with tight stops and targets. If I am to get a long term swing trade I want a lower price than right at the triangle top.
It is possible that we're in a large sideways ABCDE triangle with the legs formed by ABC corrections.
That would mean chopping back into the triangle and the only long term long trade is at the bottom of the triangle support, probably around 3400.
This is not a very good hold and hope area on the chart. There's still a lot BTC has to do to prove it is bullish.
Elliott Wave View: DAX Bullish Sequence Favors More UpsideDAX has broken above February 6, 2019 high (11371.74) and shows a bullish sequence from December 28, 2018 low (10279.20). On the chart below, we put a bullish sequence stamp and right side higher to indicate the direction that we prefer to trade. The correction to 10867.9 low ended wave ((X)) as an Expanded Flat Elliott Wave. A Flat is a 3-3-5 structure with ABC label. The decline to 11051.11 ended wave (A), wave (B) bounce ended at 11371.74. Wave (C) of ((X)) ended at 10863.56.
After ending wave ((X)) at 10863.56, the Index has rallied and broken above the previous wave (B) high at 11371.74. This suggests that the next leg higher has likely started. The rally from 10867.9 low is unfolding as an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10867.9, wave 1 ended at 11217.3, wave 2 ended at 11018.95, wave 3 ended at 11371.44, and wave 4 ended at 11244.52. Expect DAX to end the 5 waves move with 1 more leg higher at the blue box area of 11400.25 – 11479.66. Afterwards, the Index should pullback in wave (B) in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct the cycle from February 9, 2019 low. As far as the pullback stays above 10867.9, expect the Index to resume higher again. We do not like selling the proposed pullback.
Elliott Wave View: Gold Buyers Should Appear SoonElliott wave view in Gold suggests that rally from August 16, 2018 low ($1160.37) is unfolding as an Elliott Wave Impulse structure. Rally to $1326.53 ended wave (3). Wave (4) pullback is in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from $1326.53, wave W ended at $1302.4 and wave X ended at $1318.17. Internal of wave W takes the form of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((a)) of W ended at $1308.40, wave ((b)) of W ended at $1316.9, and wave ((c)) of W ended at $1302.40.
Internal of wave X takes the form of a double three Elliott Wave of a lesser degree. Wave ((w)) of X ended at $1315.63, wave ((x)) of X ended at $1303.4, and wave ((y)) of X ended at $1318.17. Wave Y is proposed to take the form of a zigzag Elliottwave structure where wave ((a)) ended at $1304.90. Near term, while wave ((b)) bounce stays below $1326.53, expect another leg lower to $1288.28 – $1293.98 in wave ((c)). This move lower should also end wave Y of (4). Expect buyers should appear in this area for new high in wave (5) or at least a 3 waves bounce. We do not like selling Gold.
Elliott Wave View: Further Rally in Nikkei FavoredShort-term Elliott wave view in Nikkei suggests that the Index has ended correction at 20169 as wave ((X)) and starts a new leg higher. Decline to 20169 on 8 February took the form of an Elliott Wave Expanded Flat. An Elliott Wave Flat structure has an ABC label with subdivision of 3-3-5. We can see from the 1 hour chart wave (B) of this FLAT ended at 20970 and wave (C) ended at 20169. Subdivision of wave (C) unfolded as a 5 waves Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 20970, wave 1 ended at 20815, and wave 2 ended at 20895. Wave 3 ended at 20270, wave 4 ended at 20370, and wave 5 ended at 20169.
The Index has since rallied and broke above the previous high on February 5th, suggesting the next leg higher has started. Rally from Feb 9th low (20169) is unfolding as a 5 waves Impulse structure. Up from 20169, wave 1 ended at 20480 and wave 2 ended at 20390, wave 3 at 21198 and wave 4 at 21060 low. Expect ideally 1 more leg higher in the Index to end the 5 waves up. Afterwards, it should pullback to correct the cycle from Feb 9 low within wave (B) in 3, 7, or 11 swing. As far as pullback stays above 20390 low, expect the Index to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Index.
Tesla Elliott Wave Bearish Sequence Favoring More DownsideTesla ticker symbol: $ TSLA short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the cycle from 12/7/2018 peak is showing incomplete structure favoring more downside still. Down from that peak, the decline is unfolding as an impulse structure with sub-division of 5 waves structure in lesser degree cycles. When a decline to $279.28 low ended wave (1) in a lesser degree 5 waves structure. Above from there, Tesla corrected the cycle from 1/16/2019 peak ($352) in wave (2) bounce.
The internals of that bounce unfolded as double three structure with lesser degree cycles showing the sub-division of 3-3-3 corrective structure in each leg. Up from $279.88 low, the initial bounce to $318 peak ended wave W also in lesser degree double three structure. Down from there, a pullback to $290.51 low as zigzag structure. Above from there, a rally to $324.19 high ended wave Y as Elliott wave zigzag structure. And also completed the wave (2) bounce.
Near-term, as far as bounces fail below $324.19 high expect Tesla to extend lower in wave (3) lower towards $264.11-$243.39 area lower initially. However, a break below $279.28 low will add more conviction to this bearish view & avoid Elliott wave double correction in wave (2) bounce.
Elliott Wave View Suggest More Upside in General ElectricElliott wave view in General Electric (ticker symbol: $GE) suggests that the rally from December 11.2018 low ($6.66) is unfolding as Elliott wave zigzag structure when the first leg of a bounce ended in lesser degree 5 waves structure in wave A at $9.25 high. Down from there, wave B ended 3 wave pullback at $8.56 low. Zigzag (5-3-5) is a combination of 3 waves corrective sequence labeled as A, B, C. The inner sub-division of wave A & wave C consists of 5 waves structure either as impulse or a diagonal. While wave B can be any 3 wave corrective sequence.
Up from $8.56 low, wave C is unfolding in another 5 waves structure where lesser degree wave ((i)) ended at $9.21 high. Wave ((ii)) pullback ended in lesser degree zigzag structure at $8.65 low. Wave ((iii)), also unfolded in lesser degree 5 waves & ended at $10.77 high. Below from there, wave ((iv)) pullback ended at $9.92 low. Wave ((v)) remain in progress in lesser degree 5 waves structure and should be looking to extend higher 1 more push towards $11.15-$12.76 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of A-B before ending the wave C of a zigzag structure in a bigger wave (4). Afterwards, General Electric is expected to resume the downside or should do a 3 wave pullback at least. Near-term, as far as the pivot from $8.65 low stays intact expect stock to extend higher.
NEXT UP 3900 FOR BTCWe have just completed a full on ABC. Wave C have just finished its 5th wave, of the 1:1 fibonacci of A-B, which indicates that we should see a upward movement.
Also the 4H RSI is telling us that we have a bullish divergence which confirms the Elliott wave count.
A movement up to 3900 is reasonable, as it is the top resistance of the falling wedge.
Short Term Elliott Wave View in Oil Favoring More UpsideOil's (CL_F) short term Elliott Wave view shows that the decline from 10/3/2018 high ended as 5 waves impulse in wave a at $42.41. The cycle from 10/3/2018 high has ended and Oil should now see at least a 3 waves rally. The rally from $42.41 is unfolding as Elliott Wave zigzag structure where wave ((A)) is currently in progress.
An internal of a zigzag is 5-3-5, which means that wave ((A)) should subdivide in 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from $42.41, wave (1) ended at $47, wave (2) ended at $44.35, and wave (3) ended at $52.58. And the pullback in wave (4) can also have ended at 51.38 low and Oil can rally 1 more leg higher in wave (5) to end 5 waves up and complete wave ((A)). After wave ((A)) is complete, it should pullback in wave ((B)) to correct rally from 12/25/2018 low ($42.41) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes again in wave ((C)).
Perfect Elliot Wave In Ashok Leyland (Probability 2)We're in the correction waves of Elliot with a perfect head and shoulders at the end of impulse. Another head and shoulders is seen in making which also completes the corrective waves. (Fundamentally company is cool, this is just the mood of investors captured by the Great Elliot
Perfect Elliot Wave In Ashok Leyland (Probability 1)We're in the correction stage of the long term elliot wave in Ashok leyland. Perfect head and shoulders seen at the end of Elliot's impulse wave.
Hence there can be two possibilities according to elliot wave (there can be more, is pointed two most probable) and this is Probability 1