Elliott Wave View: SPX Starts a New Impulsive RallyHello Traders,
Short term S&P 500 (SPX) Elliott wave view suggests that the selloff starting from Sept 21 high (2940.9) has ended at Oct 29 low (2603.54). We take the most aggressive view and call the low at 2603.54 as red wave IV. This suggests that SPX is ready to rally in a new bullish cycle towards a new all time high. However, for this view to gain validity, the Index must first break above the previous all-time high, labelled as red wave III at 2940.9. Without this confirmation, the Index technically can just correct the selloff from last month in 3 waves ABC zigzag, then continue the selloff again.
Looking at the internal subdivision, it appears the selloff from Sept 21 to Oct 29 low took the form of a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 2940.9 high, Black degree wave ((W)) ended at 2710.5, wave ((X)) ended at 2816.94, and wave ((Y)) ended at 2603.54. This move lower also ended a higher degree red wave IV. Since then, the Index has rallied strongly, further getting acceleration to the upside after U.S. midterm election.
Rally from red wave IV at 2603.54 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive structure where red wave 1 ended at 2756.55 and red wave 2 ended at 2700.25. Index has since extended higher again above red wave 1, suggesting that red wave 3 has started. Near term, while pullbacks stay above 2700.2, and more importantly above 2603.54, expect further upside in the Index. As an alternate, the rally from 2603.54 can take the form of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure, where the first leg higher to 2756.55 ended red wave A instead of red wave 1, and the pullback to 2700.25 ended red wave B instead of red wave 2. In this scenario, then SPX should finish red wave C as 5 waves then start to turn lower again.
Elliottwavecorrection
Dow Jones Elliott Wave View: Correction CompletedHello Traders,
YM short-term Elliott wave view suggests that a bounce to 25845 high ended red wave “b”. Down from there, red wave “c” unfolded as ending diagonal structure i.e lesser degree cycles within black wave ((1)), ((3)) & ((5)) also unfolded in 3 swings structure. Where black wave ((1)) ended at 25220 low as zigzag structure. Up from there, a bounce to 25594 high ended black wave ((2)). Below from there, black wave ((3)) ended at 24515 low in another 3 swings.
Above from there, a bounce to 25075 high ended black wave ((4)) bounce. Then finally a decline to 24089 low ended black wave ((5)), which also completed cycle red wave “c” & blue wave (IV) pullback. Up from there, the index made a strong bounce higher & broke the pivot from 25845 thus suggests that the next leg higher in blue wave (V) could have started. Near-term, while dips remain above 24089 low the index is expected to resume the upside. But a break above 26962 10/03/2018 peak remains to be seen for final conviction of this bullish view & to avoid double correction lower in bluee wave (IV) pullback. We don’t like selling it.
GBP futures ready for correctioncorrection will be three waves ABC might retrace 50% or more of the previous wave
US 30 ZigZag Correction Near CompletionNearly there. Probably another rough day or two to get crushed down to support and complete the Zig-Zag correction (WXY). Elliott ABC wave near support.
Expect a hammer Doji, a deep spike with reaction lift. Maybe Tues/Weds. Who knows, utterly unpredictable atm. Spy might get down to 253. Nas- who knows?!
If index breaks and closes below the blue pivot support box, it's in big trouble and we should expect a bear market. Biting my nails to stubs.
Monday wild price swings were astounding, it fooled a lot of us into thinking "This is it! Going up!" Expect consolidation at bottom first, not a giant bounce.
As always, this isn't investment advice, trade at your own risk!
Gold - Sell the topGold is making a corrective structure in a downtrend. This 3 wave structure looks complete, there is bearish div present on the HTFs.
Good short setup from atleast a correction or breakdown to 2015 lows.
Watch for the breakdown from the below trendline and followed by a corrective structure for confirmation of the move down to 2015 lows to complete the monthly flat structure.
IBEX Elliott Wave Calling Rally To Fail For Further DownsideHello Traders,
IBEX short-term Elliott wave view suggests that a rally to 9668.31 high ended blue wave (X) bounce. Down from there, the index made a declined in 5 waves impulse structure. And ended red wave A of a zigzag structure at 8850.20 low. Where the lesser degree black wave ((i)) ended at 9471.20 low. Up from there, a bounce to 9542.80 high ended black wave ((ii)) as a Flat structure. Below from there, a decline to 8971.30 low ended extended black wave ((iii)) in lesser degree 5 waves. A bounce to 9120.80 high ended black wave ((iv)). Finally, a decline to 8850.20 low ended black wave ((v)) & also completed the red wave A.
Currently, we are calling red wave B pullback complete at 9140 and as long as the index stays below that level but more importantly below 9668.31 it is expected to see more downside. We don’t like buying it as the right side stamp is lower & calling more downside against 9668.31 high.
BASIC ELLIOT WAVE PRICE ACTION TRADE SET UPThis is the thought process and a great example of price action. Look for an impulse wave that determines trend then a corrective structure that will set you up for a trend continuation trade. Very Basic Elliot WAVe Set UP. Check my analysis I forecasted this trade before it dropped and this was my exact process.
EURUSD Elliott Wave: Ready For Next Leg Higher?!Hello Traders,
EURUSD short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the decline to 1.1427 low ended cycle red wave II pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a Flat structure which ended the correction against 8/15/2018 low. Up from 1.1427 low, the pair is expected to resume the next leg higher in red wave III. The internals of wave III is expected to nest higher as impulse structure for further upside. Up from there, the initial rally to 1.1610 high blue wave (1) in 5 waves structure.
Where lesser degree red wave 1 ended at 1.1515, red wave 2 ended at 1.1479 low. A rally to 1.1572 high ended red wave 3. A pullback to 1.1540 low ended red wave 4. Then finally a rally to 1.1610 high ended red wave 5 & also completed blue wave (1).
Currently, the correction against 1.1427 low remains in progress as a Flat structure where red wave A ended at 1.1534 low. Then a rally to 1.1621 high ended red wave B bounce and red wave C looking to end 5 waves structure somewhere between 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of red A-B at 1.1545-1.1497 area. Afterwards, pair is expected to resume the next leg higher in blue wave (3) higher. We don’t like selling it.
BTC - Called the Tether pump what to expect next!In my previous post, I had discussed an alternate scenario and that it would be a good time to close shorts and be looking for longs if btc doesn't break the low soon. We got a nice pump after that due to Tether fud.
The structure is different on the USDT and USD exchanges. Will be adding my thoughts on USDT chart later in an update on this post.
I'm using the Bitstamp chart since there is big difference in usd and usdt rates right now.
We have completed flat structure for the X and made first impulsive leg. Wait for the correction of this drop from the high for confirmation for short trades.
AUDUSD Bearish Sequence Support More DownsideHello Traders.
AUDUSD short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the bounce to 0.7316 high ended blue wave (X). Down from there, blue wave (Y) remain in progress as a zigzag structure. Where initial decline to 0.7049 low ended in 5 wave’s impulse structure & also completed the black wave ((a)) lower. Also, it’s important to note that the pair is having a bearish sequence tag & right side lower, therefore, buying is not recommended.
The lesser degree cycles within black wave ((a)) ended blue wave (i) at 0.7201. A bounce to 0.7240 high ended blue wave (ii). Then a decline to 0.7051 low ended 5 waves in blue wave (iii).
Above from there, the bounce to 0.7086 high ended blue wave (iv). Then finally, a push lower to 0.7049 low ended blue wave (v) & also completed black wave ((a)).
Up from there, black wave ((b)) bounce can be complete at 0.7131 looking for another extension lower. As long as the price stays below 0.7131 but more importantly below 0.7316 we expect AUDUSD to extend lower, we don't like buying it as the right side is to the downside.
Tesla Elliott Wave View: Favoring More Downside To ProceedHello Traders,
TSLA short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the rally to $317.51 high ended blue wave (X) bounce. The internals of that bounce unfolded as zigzag structure where red wave A ended in 5 waves at $302.64 high. Down from there, red wave B pullback ended as a Flat at $260.56 where lesser degree black wave ((a)) ended at $275.50. Black wave ((b)) ended in 3 swings at $315 high. And black wave ((c)) ended 5 waves decline at $260.56 low.
Up from $260.56 low, a rally to $317.51 high in 5 waves ended red wave C & also the blue wave (X). Down from there, Tesla has made a new low below 9/07/2018 low ($252.25) confirming the next extension lower in blue wave (Y) lower. Where initial decline to $249 low ended 5 waves in black wave ((a)) of a possible Zigzag structure.
Above from there, the stock is doing a bounce in black wave ((b)) in 3, 7 or 11 swings. Near-term, while bounces fail below $317.51 high expect the stock to fail for more downside. We don’t like buying it as the right side is lower & calling more downside against $317.51 high.
Oil Elliott Wave Analysis: Suggesting More UpsideHello Traders,
Oil Near-term cycle from 09/07 low (66.83) ended at the peak of 10/03 (76.93) in red wave 3. The internals of that move unfolded as an Elliott Wave ZigZag structure (5-3-5).
From 09/07 low it ended black wave ((a)) at 09/24 peak (72.72) as a 5 wave move. Below from there, it ended black wave ((b)) pullback at 09/27 low (71.72) as triangle structure. Above, from there it ended black wave ((c)) of red wave 3 at 10/03 peak (76.93) also as a 5 wave move. Below from there, oil is in the progress of correcting the cycle from 09/07 in the sequences of 3-7 o 11 swings before the rally resumes.
The focus remains towards 72.17-70.28, which is 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of black wave ((w))-((x)) to end the short-term correction.
The commodity should find buyers from there looking for another extension higher or for minimum 3 waves reaction higher. We don't like selling it as the right side is to the upside as long as the pivot at 66.83 stays intact.
EURJPY Elliott Wave Analysis: Tracking Recent Price ActionEURJPY ended the cycle from 09/10 low at the peak of 09/21 (133.121) in red wave 3. Below from there it is correcting the cycle from 09/10 in red wave 4 in the sequences of 3-7 or 11 swings.
The pullback in red wave 4 is currently suggesting that it is unfolding as a Elliott Wave Double correction.
The first leg lower from 09/21 peak ended black wave ((w)) at 09/28 low (131.173). The internals of that move unfolded as an Elliott Wave triple structure. Above from black wave ((w)) low it ended black wave ((x)) pullback at 10/01 peak (132.45).
Near-term focus remains towards 130.50-130.036, which is 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of black wave ((w))-((x)) to end the short-term correction.
The pair should find buyers from there looking for another extension higher or for minimum 3 waves reaction higher.
XLY Elliott Wave View: Trading At Equal Legs ExtremeXLY ended the cycle from 08/02 low (109.99) at the peak of 09/20 at 118.23 in blue wave (3).
Below from there, the ETF has been correcting that cycle in the sequences of 3-7 or 11 swings.
From 09/20 peak XLY has reached the equal legs area towards 115.55-114.95. The internals of that pullback has been unfolding as an Elliott Wave A-B-C correction. The first leg lower ended red wave A at 09/24 low (115.72). Above from there, it ended red wave B pullback at 10/01 peak (118.14).
The internals of that pullback unfolded as an Elliott Wave Double correction which ended black wave ((w)) at 09/26 peak (117.76), black wave ((x)) pullback at 09/26 low (116.65) and finally black wave ((y)) of red wave B at 10/01 peak (118.14). Below from there, it reached the mentioned equal legs area (blue box) and it should see soon a bounce higher.
Currently, it is trading at the equal legs extreme area (blue box) of red A-B and soon it should end blue wave (4). Afterwards, the ETF is expected to find buyers looking for new highs or for 3 wave bounce at least as long as pivot at 113.98 stays intact.
BTC - watch breakout for a long to 7100BTC is still making corrective pattern however like I discussed in my previous post this whole pattern could be WXYXZ. Z wave still has more leg up left if thats the case.
Watch a for bull break from this consolidation for a long to 7100.
I'm still expecting a new low to be formed after this WXYXZ completes.
GOLD BULLS ARE ONThe ending diagonal got a little longer but the bull trend that I called in my last post is still there to come.I hope that you used confirmation signal which would have stopped you from taking loss. Note that wave 1 , 3 and 5 in the ending diagonal of the expanded flat are equal in size , telling either the down move is over or very little to be over.
The support is at 1175 and the target for bulls is 1230 making the trade about 1:4 loss to profit ratio. Notice that last bullish move (w) took about 9 trading days to complete, I am expecting same amount of time for the proposed bullish run , so I would stay away from taking small profits.
Its is important to wait for confirmation signal to occur; which in our case is the support line encompassing the ending diagonal.
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