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Elliottwaveforecasts

AUDNZD will soon finish bullish cycle and usher in a sell-off? AUDNZD has been on a 2-year rally for 2 years. However, it appears price is correcting the sell-off in the last quarter of 2022 before the eventual resurgence. Structurally, a zigzag structure is emerging with (A) and (B) finished as impulse and double zigzag structures respectively. Meanwhile, wave (C) is on the verge of completing an ending diagonal structure. Price is currently in the 5th leg of wave (C) and may continue to 1.12 which is roughly 100% of (A) from (B). So I believe, the sellers may have a chance between 1.12-1.135 in 2025. Caveats 1. The 4th wave of the proposed ending diagonal could extend lower but should finish above 1.081 to keep the diagonal valid. Thus, buyers can buy lower again toward the zone mentioned above. 2. The (A)-(B)-(C) of ((B)) doesn't correspond in time magnitude with the sharp wave ((A)) impulse decline. Thus, the current rally alternatively could be a leading diagonal. If so, a pullback should happen as expected but shallower (should end above ((A)). Similar path but different counts.
Short
by The_Wave_Chartist
Crude Oil Outlook: Key Levels Shape the Path AheadHello Traders, Trust you are doing great. Please take some moment to go through my analysis of USOIL and share your thoughts. Overview USOIL is currently trading at 70.08, with mixed trends across timeframes. On the H4 chart, the pair remains bullish, recovering from a recent correction. Meanwhile, the H1 chart shows a bearish trend in a corrective phase, with resistance emerging in the 70.19–70.90 region. Idea An impulsive rally from 67.045 on December 5th corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at 68.78 on December 13th, where support was established. This led to a bounce toward 70.19-70.21, which now acts as resistance. If this resistance holds, a downward move is expected, targeting 67.70 and 67.08, areas where a bullish bounce may likely occur. The short-term bias remains bearish unless price breaches the Friday high of 71.38, which would shift focus to the 71.66–72.21 zone as a potential turning point. Conclusion In the short term, the bearish outlook is dominant, with 71.38 as the key invalidation level and a stop-loss reference. A break below 69.65 would add confidence to the bearish scenario, while any move above 71.38 could signal further upside, targeting the 71.66–72.21 zone for a potential reversal. Cheers! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in advance.
TVC:USOILShort
by Samuel124
The Crypto Space - Clarity Through COINNASDAQ:COIN has had a phenomenal run since the beginning of 2023, currently up about 1,100% within 2 years! In this Elliott Wave Analysis, I present my view of where I think Coinbase will stall and fall. So far the sequence is filling up nicely and has presented, those with a keen eye, several opportunities to join the 11x party :) As per this 2 day chart, I believe we are quite close to completing w3 of w(5) . In terms of EW, the chart is very clean and has been bouncing off Fibonacci support and resistance, for each wave degree, with relative precision. I would like to see price tag $353 - $375 then drop to $300 - $271 , before proceeding to a new high between $416 - $457 to complete a full five wave sequence from the 2023 lows. The sell off, thereafter, should be significant and if the space survives will present another opportunity for similar or greater returns during the next cycle. This should also coincide with a cyclical top across the cryptoverse. What are your thoughts?
NASDAQ:COINLong
by investornomics
3
Are we about to confirm a Super-Cycle event in the US Markets?In this week’s update, I’d like to delve into something that I consider probably one of the most important, but in the realm of my career, probably one of the last consequential decisions I will make in my time being affiliated with Markets. The potential of a Super-cycle topping event. This next week is my birthday. That got me thinking about my career. I first became professionally involved in the markets in 1990. But in truth, that story started when I first watched the 1987 movie “Wall Street”, starring Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen. I remember thinking to myself while watching this movie when it first aired …” that’s what I want to spend my life doing.” Probably not too far and away from many of you reading this, who caught the trading bug. Your origin story probably mimics mine to some extent. But I hailed from proud Austrian/Spanish descendants who settled in NYC in the 1930’s, and didn’t have much, and at the time, my aspirations seemed like a stretch. I went to college and majored in accounting as originally, I thought I would be a CPA. However, an internship at a big 8 accounting firm in my junior year called that aspiration into question almost immediately. My supervisor at the time commented to me…” you interns should pay us rather than the other way around ”. I assumed he was referring to the aspect that interns only complicate things, make his job harder, and I distinctly remember what a jerk this guy was, and that if the industry is filled with guys like this, I had little desire to join that cast of characters. Did my future entail me becoming this guy? It’s funny how life introduces you to people to guide, or divert you, from your chosen path…but nonetheless, becoming a CPA was a dream that I now felt at odds with. That was devasting for me because I felt I was back to square one…until I caught that movie. Leaving the theater, I was captivated, and so clear-eyed as to what I would spend the rest of my life doing. I simply would not be deterred. I got started at an investment banking firm under the tutelage of a senior advisor in the private placement division. I was fascinated by this transaction because it was (for the most part) a zero-risk proposition. I would inform some of the high-net-worth clientele of the firm that by buying restricted 144-stock prior to the IPO at a massive discount to the pricing date of the IPO, their stock would immediately become eligible for sale on Day 1 and at the opening price. The returns were typically 100% or more, and in a 6–24-month period, depending upon how complex the business was and the interest from the selling syndicate. It got to the point after several years, if the private placement allotment was GETTEX:25M or $50M I could place that entire allotment in a 10-hour work day and with only a handful of phone calls. The largest amount of time that passed was between my initial phone call and finally getting the client on the phone. The previous history of being involved in these transactions was a "no salesmanship on my part" required. The calls went, “I have $5M for private placement how much do you want”? I never heard objections like the retail brokers heard… ”I need to discuss this with my wife. or I’m going through a rough patch and have no discretionary funds.” It was here is my wiring instructions, you hit the firm’s account by COB at 4pm EST and the shares are yours. Fail to follow through on the wire, no problem… but I’ll never call you again ”. It wasn’t long before I was informed that secretaries were instructed if I called…regardless of what my client was involved with, put the call through. However, what I constantly thought about was how unfair the risk/reward was to all those who never had the chance to participate in these secretive transactions. The ups and downs of the markets had to make sense…and it wasn’t until 2012 that became affiliated with Elliott’s work. Previous to 2012, the technical analytical perspective was mocked as wishful thinking, or voodoo like. The prevailing thought process was the random walk theory, Dow theory, etc…I was a loyal follower of John Murphy (Founder of stockcharts.com) and in truth he turned me on to Elliott Wave Theory. The tenants of EWT made sense to me. They were routed in mathematics, and Fibonacci, and as a former accounting major, I felt were well within my scope of understanding. The by-product of that relationship was the absolute fascination with investor sentiment and the repeating patterns they tend to create, over and over again ("Self Similar" as Elliott put it in his original work). Fast forward 10 years and in 2022 after an exhaustive analytical look at the sum of the price action associated with the SPX500, I realized that the odds we were entering an area of a super-cycle wave (III) top was incredibly high. Now understand the magnitude of this observation of mine. If my analysis was correct, the last super-cycle wave (II) would have been experienced in the late summer of 1932. Even if we get alternation, this will be the trade of a lifetime. Not necessarily to be short the top, but to be amply prepared. I have discussed this notion with my members for two years so far. Heck, it was the leading reason why I founded EWTDaily.com. If I am right, this will affect every aspect of your financial lives, and by extension, probably your life in general. This week’s update is not to speculate what the causes are, or will be, of such an event. None of us know, and the reasons one could speculatively insert as a cause are adding up each and every month. However, to claim that my members were prepared, is all that matters to me.
SP:SPX
by maikisch
3
USDCAD Bulls Eye 1.4140 Amid Momentum ShiftHello Traders, Take a moment to read my outlook on USDCAD, and share your thoughts Overview USDCAD is currently trading at 1.40623, showing bullish trends on both the H4 and H1 timeframes. However, the bullish momentum on the H4 appears to be weakening, suggesting the uptrend may be nearing a potential reversal zone. Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by increased volatility, but momentum on the H1 timeframe has noticeably decreased, signaling reduced upward strength. Idea The pair is expected to continue its rise toward the 1.4140 price region, a key resistance level with the potential to halt further upward movement and trigger a bearish reversal. Price action is currently rejecting off the H1 order block, which could act as a short-term support level. I will monitor the 1.39797 level closely, as a break below this support would invalidate the bullish outlook, signaling a potential shift in market structure. Conversely, a sustained move above the 1.4140 resistance would indicate renewed bullish momentum and the possibility of further gains. Conclusion This outlook suggests further upside potential toward 1.4140 which is about 80pips move. However, a clear break below 1.39797 would invalidate this idea, and could provide opportunities for short positions. Cheers and happy trading!
Long
by Samuel124
1
A case for long term investment and DCANYSE:VALE Is at an inflection point. It is a stock I have been watching for a long time as it has a nice Elliott wave pattern (If correct) Here I present the Weekly chart as I consider it for my long term portfolio (3+ years BUY and Hold) Although the chart presented here looks great (Read: Phenomenal), as an analyst utilising multiple methods, the story does not unfold as easily as I'd like. As can be seen in the snapshot below there are multiple 'anomalies' still outstanding at those green zones on the magnified weekly chart. They may or may not be filled, but our awareness of them should cause us to move forward with caution. On the Elliottwave side of things, there are two ways of looking at this. Either the recent top at ~$23 was wave i of 3 of (3) or the top of Primary w(1). If the latter is true then we will likely drop lower in to one of the green bands. So the question remains - how do we take advantage of this given a drop to just above $3? 1) You can Dollar Cost Average in at each stage distributing your allocated capital 2) Wait for a bounce in a five wave move and enter at the correction for w2 of that bounce. Use the low for a stop loss. There is no perfect way to manage the unknowns, you can only manage your primary objective, which should be to safeguard your capital - If you want to know my thoughts on NYSE:VALE and other names give this a boost and follow. best of luck!
NYSE:VALE
by investornomics
3
Final Post: The Collapse Is Brewing🚨 Final Warning: The Collapse is Brewing 🚨 The market is flashing unmistakable warning signals. If you’re still clinging to the idea of endless upside, it’s time to confront the data. Here are the key reasons why the market is on the brink of a major crash: 1. Record Dumb Money Investment, Consumer Debt, and Reckless Behavior Small traders, often referred to as “dumb money,” are more heavily invested in equities than ever in recorded financial history. Historically, these traders are most bullish at market tops, while smart money—like institutional investors—are quietly exiting. A prime example is Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett, widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time, has been signaling caution through his actions. Berkshire Hathaway is on track to finish its second straight year as a net seller of stocks, unloading a record $133.2 billion in equities through the first three quarters of 2024. The majority of these sales came from its largest holding, Apple (AAPL), generating over $125 billion in proceeds. Buffett's reluctance to reinvest that capital is a significant red flag. Even more telling, Berkshire has not repurchased any of its own stock this year for the first time in six years, signaling that Buffett believes even Berkshire itself is overvalued. This aligns with his famous adage: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” At the same time, households are drowning in record levels of debt. Credit card balances have surged to all-time highs, and auto loan delinquencies are near record levels, signaling that consumers are stretched to the brink. Meanwhile, households have allocated more of their portfolios to equities than ever before, reaching record levels of stock investments as a percentage of total household equity. This dangerous combination of overleveraged consumer spending and peak exposure to equities creates the perfect storm. When the market begins to fall, liquidity issues and forced selling could accelerate the crash dramatically. 2. Elliott Wave Analysis: A Probable Turning Point When Wave 3 is extended, Wave 5 is typically shorter and often mirrors the length of Wave 1. In the chart above, I highlight a potential key target at 6,104.51 on the SPX, where Minor Wave 5 will equal 161.8% of Minor Wave 1. This level represents a probable turning point, as Wave 5 is unlikely to extend much further given the size of Wave 3 and the guideline concerning Wave 3 extensions. Additionally, the Minor Wave 1-3 trendline, shown on the chart, is a critical resistance level and a reliable predictor for pinpointing the end of Wave 5. This trendline suggests that Wave 5 is ending very soon, most likely by the end of the year. 3. Uninverted Yield Curve (After a Record Inversion) Buffetts favorite recession indicator! The yield curve has recently uninverted, a historically flawless predictor of recessions. But this time, it spent a record amount of time inverted, signaling extreme stress in the financial system. There is a strong historical correlation between the length of the inversion and the severity and length of the subsequent recession. With this inversion lasting longer than any in recorded history, the implications for the economy could be catastrophic. Final Thoughts The writing is on the wall. With record dumb money investment, Elliott Wave pattern nearing completion, a recently uninverted yield curve after a record inversion, and record consumer debt, the market is primed for a crash. Banks are sitting on over $500 billion in unrealized losses—and that’s just what we know of. The cracks in the financial system are growing, and in 2025, we should prepare for a 40-50% correction in US equities and banking failures across the globe. Greed and recklessness have reached unsustainable levels. History shows that these excesses are always punished, and this time will be no different. Stay cautious—this is your final warning. There will be no other post.
SP:SPXShort
by BardiniCapital
4
Bitcoin to Hit $100,000 in a Cycle Degree TopBitcoin has been subdividing higher fairly normally in an extended wave 3 of 5. Currently we have no indication wave 4 is done retracing and/or consolidating. That only is confirmed when price breaks back above the recent highs just below $100k. However, upon getting into our wave 5 target box, and in the larger perspective...Bitcoin is topping in a Cycle wave I. This will occur despite the halving, and more to do with the potential top in the equity markets I am seeing now. As a risk asset, Bitcoin will enter a longer term retracement, counter to much of what your hear on the financial news or read. I don't often update on Bitcoin, so I recommend followers keep this chart handy if involved with Bitcoin. Best to all, Chris
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by maikisch
XAUUSD: ABC Correction Structure Targets $2450Looking at the updated Elliott Wave analysis of Gold (XAUUSD), we can observe a clear ABC corrective structure: Wave A completed a 5-wave decline from the highs Wave B formed as a corrective rally, reaching around $2720 Wave C is now in progress, developing as a 5-wave impulse structure downward Currently in Wave C: Wave (i) has completed and Wave (ii) is nearing completion. Wave (iii) appears to be developing, showing the characteristic strong momentum of a third wave Expecting wave (iv) to form a small corrective bounce Final wave (v) should complete the entire ABC structure Key Levels: Wave B high: ~$2720 (invalidation level) Current price: Testing key support levels Target for Wave C completion: ~$2450 The parallel channel formation helps guide the price action and suggests the bearish momentum could continue until reaching our target zone. Traders should note that completion of this ABC structure could lead to a significant reversal.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ewturk
ADAUSD | Wave Analysis CUP&HANDLE Formation +200% TargetA potential ABC correction - cup with bull flag / flat handle ABC formation which currently retraced 61.8% of the A/1 wave with a possible a.4-a.5 stop hunt ending diagonal for a second false breakdown. Entry Position: Once price successfully recovered from the false breakdown support zone which could be a few attempts since wave 4 often a complex triangle. Indicator support: RSI bullish divergence in TFD confirmation of the a.5 wave. Target Position: TP1 @ 161.8% and TP2 @ 200% Fibonacci extension +200%! Invalidation: Below the lowest price position. Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stop, Good Luck
COINBASE:ADAUSDLong
by dukeposh
3
The Probabilities are stacking up that Nvidia has ToppedAs I have long forecasted, Nvidia is coming into a top of either primary or intermediate degree proportion. The answer to that burning question of mine I believe gets answered in the depth of the price action's retracement lower. Determining this answer, for me personally as an analyst, is whether or not that eventual retrace can hold above the $90.68 level, which as of this morning stands at 34% lower...so by no means am I looking at this as a mere retracement. 34% is nothing if not significant. Along the way, we're more informed in the confidence of this forecasted pathway, if price breaches the important $128.74 level. Upon seeing such price action, I believe in the weeks (or months) ahead we could see Nvidia's price action first test $102.73 area. To hold that level and reverse in a micro 5-wave pattern, could bring about our final advance into the $170 (+) area for a long term top. That top I am forecasting in years...not months. To breakdown below $102.73 could see us decline to as low as the low $70's before a corrective (but Tradeable) rally takes place. Best to all, Chris
NASDAQ:NVDA
by maikisch
GOLD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 24 NOV, 2024 ©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M. Wave count changed to maximize probability. Wave 3-grey has ended, and wave 4-grey is still unfolding, there is little data to suggest it has ended, I think it may still be developing. More specifically wave 4-grey is developing as a Flat, its wave ((a))-navy has completed, and its wave ((b))-navy is pushing higher, it could reach 2.765 (Wave ((b)) retraces 90% of wave ((a))-navy), or higher, then a push lower with wave ((c))-navy will unfold. Alternative wave count: Wave 4-grey has ended, and wave 5-grey will unfold. We also have a pullback with wave ((ii))-navy after that.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ShaneHua
GOLD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 22 NOV, 2024 ©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M. The ((a))-navy wave has completed as a Five-wave, so it is very likely that the entire ((a))((b))((c))-navy corrective wave is developed as a Zigzag ( 5-3-5). And we are moving forward with its ((b))-navy wave, which is probably developing as a Zigzag, labeled (a)(b)(c)-orange. The (a)-orange wave is almost completing its role as a five-wave, I can already count the i-grey wave to the v-grey wave. Basically the v-grey wave can push a little higher, and we will have a pullback with the (b)-orange wave after the (a)-orange wave is completed. After wave (b)-orange ends, wave (c)-orange will continue to move higher, aiming at targets around 2.691 - 2.735. And I will update continuously to follow all its developments. The push below the lower edge of the Channel is a first sign that the (a)-orange wave may be ending. ALT WAVE COUNT (Less likely): Shows that wave 4-grey ended earlier than expected, and wave 5-grey is unfolding higher. When price breaks through 2.735, I will focus on this view.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ShaneHua
NYSE:MU - ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 22 NOV, 2024 - BULLISH©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M. I see that an ABC-grey probably just completed recently at the 84.12 low, and the corrective waves are followed by motive waves, so I expect a much higher push in this stock. Looking closer, I see that the 1-grey and 2-grey waves just completed at 95.53 and it looks like the 3-grey wave is unfolding. It is subdividing into ((i)),((ii))-navy. And after the ((ii))-navy wave is over, we can go long towards the ((iii))-navy wave. While price must remain above 95.53 to maintain this view. Key point: Wave B of wave ((ii))-navy.
NASDAQ:MULong
by ShaneHua