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Elliottwaveforecasts

Bitcoin Reversal with Highest Volume of 2023?I Want to point out a few things about the last bitcoin's possible reversal point: 1- We had the highest volume on daily candle since 2023 with a bullish pin bar 2- The price rejection is from the previous cycle ATH around 19700$ which makes it an important level (Maybe the strongest support till 16000$) and also near the bottom of the ichimoku cloud Now, IF we consider this as a reversal , there are a lot of things happening here: 1- A huge channel has appeared beginning from 16300$ which I draw as a Fibonacci channel 2- Trading View's Elliot Wave chart pattern shows the targets with its wave projection considering the end of wave (a). And here are a lot of Resistances on the way (If you needed to read more about Volume Profile here is the link ): 1- Around 21500$ is both VAL of the Volume Profile and a technical resistance around the end of the wave (4) as the first target of the wave (b) projection 2- Around 23000$ is both POC of the Volume Profile and around the top of the ichimoku cloud as the last target of the wave (b) projection 3- Also we have a bearish trend line on the way And don't forget that Today and Tomorrow we will have the least volume and price movement according to the averages (linked the script on the related ideas), so Monday will be the real deal.
Long
by NoaTrader
Further Downside in DAX Impulsive Elliott Wave DeclineDAX ended cycle from 9.28.2022 low in wave ((1)) at 15707.61 with internal subdivision as 5 waves. Index is now correcting that cycle within wave ((2)) in larger degree 3, 7, or 11 swing. Internal subdivision of wave ((2)) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. A zigzag is an (A)-(B)-(C) structure where wave (A) and (C) both subdivide in 5 waves. Wave (A) of ((2)) is now in progress as 5 waves. Down from wave ((1)), wave ((i)) ended at 15524.85 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 15667.21. Index resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards 14913.98, and wave ((iv)) ended at 15128.25. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 14887.44 which completed wave 1. Corrective rally in wave 2 has ended at 15272.11 and the Index resumes lower in wave 3 towards 14702.91. Wave 4 is proposed complete at 1488.06. Expect the Index to see a few more lows before ending wave 5 and this should complete wave (A) in larger degree. Afterwards, the Index should rally in wave (B) to correct cycle from 3.7.2023 high before it resumes lower again in wave (C) of ((2)). Near term, as far as pivot at 15707.6 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
XETR:DAX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Weekly Update: Will Targets Get Hit?Since I started posting on TradingView.com once per week, I have been warning my readers of softness into the 3800 -3720 area target box. Today, I have no reason to believe otherwise. Really, my only question is when, and then what happens next? I have a purple pathway down to the low 3000’s and as of now that remains an alternative. With the loss of positive divergences on the hourly I do believe eventually we get into my target box. From there I look to constructive patterns developing. So far nothing has changed…how we get there is up for discussion. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
GBPUSD: EW perspective (A rise, then a drop)Dear traders, I would like to present to you my Elliott Wave (EW) perspective of the GBP/USD currency pair. Based on my analysis, I expect to see a temporary bullish correction followed by a bearish move from the broken support level, ultimately leading to a decline towards the 1.16300 region. It is important to note that my level of invalidation for this analysis is 1.2065, which means that if the price exceeds this level, my outlook would be deemed incorrect. Therefore, I suggest closely monitoring the 1.19000 region for a potential selling opportunity. Thank you for your attention and good luck with your trading endeavors.
Short
by Samuel124
Weekly Update: ES to 3800The last several weeks I have written about the move to the 3800 level and with the smaller chance of a direct move to the low 3,000 level right now. Clearly, there are people on both sides of the bullish/bearish equation and they’re not shy to share their support or disdain for my forecasts. I’m grateful for that, because that is what makes a market. However, the price action is voting now and, although not there as of my writing this update, it appears my targets will be hit. I will not spend an outsized amount of time regurgitating my analysis. I will point out that events that encompass a super cycle retrace of gains, is a reversion to the mean of what brought us to this event. Yes, I’m talking about inflation and the unprecedented hikes in interest rates. This boils down to a new way of thinking. The acceptance of higher interest rates is the main one. Inflation will ebb and flow, but interest rates are going far higher over the longer term than most think…and most will accept right now.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4
gold Elliott wave 1959 to 1804price first dropped vertical in wave A than it made flag correction patter in wave B than it made C ending diagonal pattern after cpi and other economic indicators while top was made after fomc meeting when fed said deflation has been started and inflation will drop very quickly but despite those less hawkish comments gold dropped which you can say insider trading before nfp or profit taking after November bottom but latter that week price drop accelerated after strong 517k nfp and strong ISM pmi numbers while our wave C decline came after cpi which proved opposite of what fed said in fomc speech from top 1959 abc waves are correction to daily time frame trend from 1614 to 1959 we can say this is correction ending with ending diagonal pattern at 1804 if today's candle stick close green again than it will confirm bottom for gold rsi divergence since low made by wave A since we are near 1 year of fed first rate hike last year so lag effect of fed aggressive rate hike since volcker will create slow down in global economy reason to buy because of lag effect nfp come down from 517k to 200k till December 2023 fed dual mandate will shift form inflation in 2022 to employment in 2023 global rate hike will pause with march month and later fed will pause with last hike in may fomc rate pause will start evitable rate cut so again market pricing for rate cut = gold bullish again to get out of recession central banks will again start easy monetary policy which can send gold upto $3000 so possible bottom after nov 4 low at 1620 correction to trend from 1614 to 1959 than new higher high beyond $2100 buy at 1804 with profit target first $2000 than $2100
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Sangam-Agarwal
4
Weekly Update: Market Analysis for the Intermediate TermI have long opined on how I believe the SPX/ES gets to my initial downside target of 3200 to high 2800 area. This week I will dispense with the long-term warnings, and provide some intermediate context. This market is transitioning from “Buy the Dips” which has worked as a strategy for the better part of 2 decades to “Sell the Rips” . That is not to say our “Rips” will not have meat on the bone so to speak. Let’s start with where we are now. We are currently in the middle of carving out a complex w-x-y pattern for our b-wave low in the area of 3772-3653. A breach of 3788 is a target I have been discussing in our trading room for a while now. Upon getting into my target box, I plan on designating the summer of 2023, as "The Summer of LOVE"...lol. This is where traders LOVE the long side once again. This could constitute a RIP that has a lot of MEAT on the bone. We're talking about a potential move up of 700-900 points. I am speculating when I say, the sentiment would be during this rally that the FED has pivoted, inflation has moderated, "maybe scientists will determine that "Dogs and cats can live together in harmony " (Joke)...but this rally will only give way to a 3rd quarter to end of 2023 being dismal. Why, you ask? Because this is the last hurrah for "Buy the Dips" trading mentality. This gives way to despair, as we shed 30%-35% in short order. I mean this sincerely when I say..."Stay Safe". Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
EURJPY ForecastWe have two potential scenarios for the EURJPY. Unfortunately, none of them will give is a good trading opportunity in the short term. Scenario A The corrective cycle that started in October 2022 is not over, and we will see another wave down before ending wave 2 in the primary degree (green) What to do in scenario A? In this scenario, when the price reaches the green Inflection zone, we will buy EURJPY Scenario B This corrective cycle ended on January 2023, and we have already started wave 3 in the primary degree. What to do in scenario B? The EURJPY will need to break the highs created on October 2022 before looking for buying opportunities in a shorter time frame cycle. In conclusion, in the short term, we do not expect that EURJPY can provide us with good trading opportunities. We will continue analysing it for you and updating you accordingly if the market structure changes Please remember to do not to risk more than 2% of your account on each trading idea
Long
by TradingtheRightSide
EURUSD ForecsatEURUSD Forecast The correction EURUSD started in September 2022 is not over yet. We are forecasting that we only have finished the (A) from the (A)(B)(C) of the correction in the intermediate degree (blue) to end wave 4 (green). Therefore we still need to see the price making higher highs from the current position. We are forecasting this option as the most provable at this point because wave (A) seems like a clear motive wave for us. We clearly see 5 waves forming (A). That means that, as wave 4 in green (primary degree) has to have a corrective structure, there is still another wave up missing. What to do? We currently can not look to enter the market. We should be patient and wait for the price to break the 1.1033 level before looking for short-term buying opportunities. Alternative scenario We forecast that wave 4 in the primary degree (green) is not over yet. However, until the price does not break the 1.1033 level, we cannot discard the scenario where wave 4 is already over. If this is the case, the price will resume the downtrend directly, making lower lows. Unfortunately, today we cannot give you a trade idea for the EURUSD, but we hope you understand what the asset situation of the EURUSD is. As always, we will keep you updated Please remember to do not to risk more than 2% of your account on each trading idea
by TradingtheRightSide
BTC ForecastBitcoin Forecast Technically the correction (II) in the super cycle degree (red) should have reached the 12,230 level to end the correction and start the new bullish cycle. However, the possibility that this will not happen is high as it seems that in Nov 2022 we ended this long corrective cycle. Even though another push low is not 100% discarded, we forecast that the new bullish cycle is already in place. Therefore once we have a bullish sequence, we will be interested in buying BTC. This can happen this week. We will keep you updated. In the alternative scenario where BTC makes another lower low, we would buy it if the price reaches the 12.3 k level. Please remember to do not to risk more than 2% of your account on each trading idea
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TradingtheRightSide
Weekend Update: The Sky is kind of FallingLike most, the 2008-09 financial crisis had an impact on me, my family, my financial decisions, and pretty much everything. It was a life altering time period. Now, granted back then, I was a younger trader, and retirement was not on my radar screen. Fast forward 15 years into the future, and you bet, retirement is a blip on my radar screen now, and I’m paying attention. When it comes to retirement funds, I witnessed first-hand during the financial crisis of 2008-09, how people who had worked their entire life, saw the fruits of their life’s labor, dwindle to a pittance of what it was the year prior. So that time period in the markets had an effect on my perspective as I’m sure most of you reading this. 2008, I concluded was much like the stories my granddad told me of living during the great depression, and how that event shaped every decision he made until his passing in 2018. Now, I’m not prone to being “Chicken Little” and run around and say the sky is falling…. But this pressure on my head from the sky is kind of concerning. In my trading room, we held a training conference call this past Monday. I chose one attendee from the group to label a chart of price action. I told the attendees the chart they would be observing was a fictitious chart. This exercise is a function of helping novice Elliottitions come to an analytical thesis about the price pattern and structure their viewing. In this particular example, the attendee labeled a full pattern and stated a retrace of a certain magnitude was order. Now bear in mind, this is an exercise in structural observation and it takes a total of a five minutes to conclude. It is by no means a scientific conclusion. But to come to that conclusion in such a short period of time was worth discussing further. The pattern must be obvious for novice Elliottitions to form a conclusion in such short order. In truth, that exact chart used during the exercise was the SPX monthly cash market since inception. To the attendees it was labeled as the American Bottling Company, Inc., an obvious fictitious company. This was done to prevent the attendees from regurgitating the SPX analysis we discuss on daily basis. We discussed the exercise, and ultimately concluded that a retrace to the wave 4 of one lesser degree was in order from a minimum standpoint. I then, came clean and told the attendees they had just forecasted a 50% drop in the SPX . That forecasted low, in this very unscientific and quick observational analysis put the SPX cash index back to COVID-19 low of 2192 . Today, the SPX is at 4012.32. To get to 2192 would constitute a 45% haircut. I cannot stress this enough…that is the ideal retracement area. If you study Elliott Wave Theory, you’ll know that a wave 4 ideally retraces .382 of its wave 3 all the way up to .50%. If my analysis is correct, wave 3 started in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929 and concluded in January 2022. To retrace .382 of that price action is in the 2960 area and 50% of that retracement would equal 2300-2400. So the area at or slightly higher than the COVID-19 should get tagged. Let’s discuss how we get there. With respect to the impending downside, the first break in upside price action comes with a breach of 3901.75. A breach of that price changes the upside pattern we've been tracking since the October lows of 3502, into a new downside pattern. At that point in time 3788 comes into view. Depending on the structure this forecasted move down takes, I will be able to dial in short and potentially longer term targets. Support regions below that are 3590 and the October low of 3502. Any breach of 3590 brings the real possibility of 3300-2800 into view. I conclude with I have shared this analytical thesis of mine with my followers on TradingView.com on several occasions. Am I urging everyone reading this to sell? I cannot, nor will I, provide such direction. It would be irresponsible of me to word my warning as such. Let’s just say, when it comes to market price action, we have no shortage of opinions. Feel free to consider or dismiss mine. Additionally, I am not trying to be purposefully ambiguous. Let’s just say, for this trader, I am looking at moving all retirement assets to cash equivalents for an intermediate period of time, if we can get into my gray target box. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4