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Elliottwaveforecasts

Weekly Update: Market Analysis for the Intermediate TermI have long opined on how I believe the SPX/ES gets to my initial downside target of 3200 to high 2800 area. This week I will dispense with the long-term warnings, and provide some intermediate context. This market is transitioning from “Buy the Dips” which has worked as a strategy for the better part of 2 decades to “Sell the Rips” . That is not to say our “Rips” will not have meat on the bone so to speak. Let’s start with where we are now. We are currently in the middle of carving out a complex w-x-y pattern for our b-wave low in the area of 3772-3653. A breach of 3788 is a target I have been discussing in our trading room for a while now. Upon getting into my target box, I plan on designating the summer of 2023, as "The Summer of LOVE"...lol. This is where traders LOVE the long side once again. This could constitute a RIP that has a lot of MEAT on the bone. We're talking about a potential move up of 700-900 points. I am speculating when I say, the sentiment would be during this rally that the FED has pivoted, inflation has moderated, "maybe scientists will determine that "Dogs and cats can live together in harmony " (Joke)...but this rally will only give way to a 3rd quarter to end of 2023 being dismal. Why, you ask? Because this is the last hurrah for "Buy the Dips" trading mentality. This gives way to despair, as we shed 30%-35% in short order. I mean this sincerely when I say..."Stay Safe". Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
EURJPY ForecastWe have two potential scenarios for the EURJPY. Unfortunately, none of them will give is a good trading opportunity in the short term. Scenario A The corrective cycle that started in October 2022 is not over, and we will see another wave down before ending wave 2 in the primary degree (green) What to do in scenario A? In this scenario, when the price reaches the green Inflection zone, we will buy EURJPY Scenario B This corrective cycle ended on January 2023, and we have already started wave 3 in the primary degree. What to do in scenario B? The EURJPY will need to break the highs created on October 2022 before looking for buying opportunities in a shorter time frame cycle. In conclusion, in the short term, we do not expect that EURJPY can provide us with good trading opportunities. We will continue analysing it for you and updating you accordingly if the market structure changes Please remember to do not to risk more than 2% of your account on each trading idea
Long
by TradingtheRightSide
EURUSD ForecsatEURUSD Forecast The correction EURUSD started in September 2022 is not over yet. We are forecasting that we only have finished the (A) from the (A)(B)(C) of the correction in the intermediate degree (blue) to end wave 4 (green). Therefore we still need to see the price making higher highs from the current position. We are forecasting this option as the most provable at this point because wave (A) seems like a clear motive wave for us. We clearly see 5 waves forming (A). That means that, as wave 4 in green (primary degree) has to have a corrective structure, there is still another wave up missing. What to do? We currently can not look to enter the market. We should be patient and wait for the price to break the 1.1033 level before looking for short-term buying opportunities. Alternative scenario We forecast that wave 4 in the primary degree (green) is not over yet. However, until the price does not break the 1.1033 level, we cannot discard the scenario where wave 4 is already over. If this is the case, the price will resume the downtrend directly, making lower lows. Unfortunately, today we cannot give you a trade idea for the EURUSD, but we hope you understand what the asset situation of the EURUSD is. As always, we will keep you updated Please remember to do not to risk more than 2% of your account on each trading idea
by TradingtheRightSide
BTC ForecastBitcoin Forecast Technically the correction (II) in the super cycle degree (red) should have reached the 12,230 level to end the correction and start the new bullish cycle. However, the possibility that this will not happen is high as it seems that in Nov 2022 we ended this long corrective cycle. Even though another push low is not 100% discarded, we forecast that the new bullish cycle is already in place. Therefore once we have a bullish sequence, we will be interested in buying BTC. This can happen this week. We will keep you updated. In the alternative scenario where BTC makes another lower low, we would buy it if the price reaches the 12.3 k level. Please remember to do not to risk more than 2% of your account on each trading idea
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TradingtheRightSide
Weekend Update: The Sky is kind of FallingLike most, the 2008-09 financial crisis had an impact on me, my family, my financial decisions, and pretty much everything. It was a life altering time period. Now, granted back then, I was a younger trader, and retirement was not on my radar screen. Fast forward 15 years into the future, and you bet, retirement is a blip on my radar screen now, and I’m paying attention. When it comes to retirement funds, I witnessed first-hand during the financial crisis of 2008-09, how people who had worked their entire life, saw the fruits of their life’s labor, dwindle to a pittance of what it was the year prior. So that time period in the markets had an effect on my perspective as I’m sure most of you reading this. 2008, I concluded was much like the stories my granddad told me of living during the great depression, and how that event shaped every decision he made until his passing in 2018. Now, I’m not prone to being “Chicken Little” and run around and say the sky is falling…. But this pressure on my head from the sky is kind of concerning. In my trading room, we held a training conference call this past Monday. I chose one attendee from the group to label a chart of price action. I told the attendees the chart they would be observing was a fictitious chart. This exercise is a function of helping novice Elliottitions come to an analytical thesis about the price pattern and structure their viewing. In this particular example, the attendee labeled a full pattern and stated a retrace of a certain magnitude was order. Now bear in mind, this is an exercise in structural observation and it takes a total of a five minutes to conclude. It is by no means a scientific conclusion. But to come to that conclusion in such a short period of time was worth discussing further. The pattern must be obvious for novice Elliottitions to form a conclusion in such short order. In truth, that exact chart used during the exercise was the SPX monthly cash market since inception. To the attendees it was labeled as the American Bottling Company, Inc., an obvious fictitious company. This was done to prevent the attendees from regurgitating the SPX analysis we discuss on daily basis. We discussed the exercise, and ultimately concluded that a retrace to the wave 4 of one lesser degree was in order from a minimum standpoint. I then, came clean and told the attendees they had just forecasted a 50% drop in the SPX . That forecasted low, in this very unscientific and quick observational analysis put the SPX cash index back to COVID-19 low of 2192 . Today, the SPX is at 4012.32. To get to 2192 would constitute a 45% haircut. I cannot stress this enough…that is the ideal retracement area. If you study Elliott Wave Theory, you’ll know that a wave 4 ideally retraces .382 of its wave 3 all the way up to .50%. If my analysis is correct, wave 3 started in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929 and concluded in January 2022. To retrace .382 of that price action is in the 2960 area and 50% of that retracement would equal 2300-2400. So the area at or slightly higher than the COVID-19 should get tagged. Let’s discuss how we get there. With respect to the impending downside, the first break in upside price action comes with a breach of 3901.75. A breach of that price changes the upside pattern we've been tracking since the October lows of 3502, into a new downside pattern. At that point in time 3788 comes into view. Depending on the structure this forecasted move down takes, I will be able to dial in short and potentially longer term targets. Support regions below that are 3590 and the October low of 3502. Any breach of 3590 brings the real possibility of 3300-2800 into view. I conclude with I have shared this analytical thesis of mine with my followers on TradingView.com on several occasions. Am I urging everyone reading this to sell? I cannot, nor will I, provide such direction. It would be irresponsible of me to word my warning as such. Let’s just say, when it comes to market price action, we have no shortage of opinions. Feel free to consider or dismiss mine. Additionally, I am not trying to be purposefully ambiguous. Let’s just say, for this trader, I am looking at moving all retirement assets to cash equivalents for an intermediate period of time, if we can get into my gray target box. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
Nifty hourly Elliott wave analysisThe move from 17348 is corrective. There is no way an elliottician calls it an impulse move going on. So, the move should be correct 100% to justify it as a corrective move. There are a few corrective moves that don't retrace fully, eg. the legs of a triangle. But this move seems like it should correct 100% soon. A good elliottician is not the one who always has counts, but the one who give counts when there is most and more probability and possibility.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by tradersmantra
Weekend Update: Are We About to TOP (or Topped) in the ES/SPX?In our trading room we’ve been tracking what I have characterized as the final stages of a rally that began back in October at the lows of 3502. The question remains are we topping, or have we already topped? Longer term, I deduce there are two schools of camp from my CNBC White Noise in the background of my trading office. The first is we’re in a new bull market and the October lows are the lows. After some messy chopping around, we’ve built a strong base to attack the January 2022 highs later this year. Now to give this camp credit, (let’s call this camp 1) they’re calling for a consolidation of the gains so far. The second camp (let’s call this camp 2) , is we’re eventually headed much lower than 3502, and the January 2022 highs will be handily put in the rear view mirror for years to come. Did I say years?...I'm sorry, I meant at least a decade. I’m in camp 2. But let’s get something out in the open first. Camp 1 and 2 both acknowledge a consolidation of gains from October is in order in the short term. But that’s where our similarities end. In last week’s post, I provided details analysis and context surrounding my LONG-TERM analytical thesis of price being in a Super Cycle wave (IV) area of consolidation. I will not be rehashing that analysis again this week. Instead, I want to provide less of a long-term picture, and what is in store for us in the weeks and months ahead. The past week was filled with opportunity on the long and short side of price action. Today was the first day since the December lows of 3788 we started to crack. We’ve been steadfast in tracking a pattern that ends at 4242. Why? Because price has given us no indication that it will NOT get there. Until today. Now some of you may be saying one day does not make a trend. I agree. But put several of those together and that’s what you have. The beginnings of a new trend back down. The main chart shows how we cracked today. This price action, so far, does not constitute invalidation...but we're close. I consider 4025 the last line of credible defense. Below that, and I have to give credit to the larger downside pattern. To confirm the downside pattern, we have to breach 3901.75 on the ES. That's a long way away. Nonetheless, if we consolidate below 4150 and stay below that price level. Not only do I see a breach of 3901.75...but a breach of 3788. This would just be the beginning. Now if we can hold and not breach 4025. There is a weak case to make that 4242 may get tagged. In conclusion, whether we've topped, or we get 4242 in next several weeks. Camp 1 is about to get a lesson in "don't buy the dip". Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
GOLD XAUUSD - Where now?Hi everyone, We saw the reaction off the completed WXY highlighted last week (linked idea below) play out perfectly and the larger three wave corrective structure now also looks complete above the 1860 level. My plan is to target the price inefficiency highlighted in the red boxes whilst monitoring how the forthcoming wave structure develops. Expecting initial resistance at the 1900 level. A bullish five wave structure will likely lead gold higher beyond 1960, completing the impulsive move which began in September 2022. Will update how that plays out accordingly. Trade safe. BeyondEdge
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BeyondEdge
2
Jubilant Food WorksHello and welcome to this analysis The stock has been in a decline since Sept 2021, all bounces have so far been sluggish as it continues to make a lower high lower low pattern. It was removed from Nifty Next 50 hence the recent exit pressure from Index based funds In the immediate short term due to a heavily oversold scenario a dead cat bounce appears to be in the making. This could either bounce back to 500-525 or form a triangle (higher probability) as long as it holds last week low. Overall chances of this being a bottom look slim unless it starts sustaining above 535. We might see value buying coming near 375-350.
NSE:JUBLFOODShort
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
Evening Update: My Last Weekday PostToday was a fairly predictable day if you traded my morning update chart. On the morning update post I posted my activity for a scalp. I'm short -3 ES at 4207 for a scalp anticipating price getting down to 4150-4160 area. We can get down into the 4120 area without invalidating anything but if this is going to continue to extend we should not get down that low. Now that we are not overlapping in 3-way moves it appears price is hitting standard fib areas for this c wave advance. Therefore I have no reason to believe we will not decline into the 4150-4160 area and make another high ( at the very least ) Remember we do not get our first sign we have topped until we breach 4048.50 and confirmation comes ONLY with a breach of 3901.75. Best to all, Important: Due to the update in my profile section I will no longer be posting my Morning, Evening, Special and Trade Alert posts. Please reference that for more information. I will be posting a Weekend Update.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4
Special Update: This is an UGLY rally, But I'm done FightingThere is so much I don't like about this rally (I have addressed this a lot in the past) but price is the ultimate arbiter. So, it is not my nature to be closed minded. Am I ready to go long? No...but the market doesn't care about my readiness. Let's recap my trading: 1. I am short -25 4300 calls at $7 that expire End of February. I raised $8,679 in premium. Today those calls appreciated to as high as $16.50 so my trade drawdown was a staggering 120%. Currently the price to buy back is $12.50 which would cost me $15,554.50 so almost double what I raised. Now, in truth, those options have NO intrinsic value. Their only value is those options have 27 days of life...but they're worthless below 4300. I made a hedge trade that profited $7350 so account wise I'm not in a bad situation at all. This strategy is my edge. I spend a lot of time analyzing charts but my trade strategy is encapsulated by planning on being wrong and profiting. Hopefully that makes sense. I hope to educate on this strategy as I think it's the only way to trade as a business. Lets recap my analysis: I believe I have misjudged this rally off the 3502 low. This has moved higher much faster than I anticipated and in the interim, (even though I knew price would come into the 4300-4500 area)...I didn't anticipate for it happen so fast. But I have given price every opportunity to retrace into the areas I have been anticipating 3850-3700 and that hasn't happened. Therefore I have look at this with fresh eyes and come up with a rational means of profiting from the price action. So let's discuss the details. 1. The upside officially is not confirmed until price breaches 4180 which hasn't happened. However, we're above ALL Fib retracement levels. Price is not screaming at us, but it's definitely raising it's voice it has intentions are go beyond the 4180 area. So, "Price, you have my attention". Sidebar: Back to my strategy of selling premium. I still have 160 points to fashion a hedge. I cannot stress enough that trading for profit is different from just trading. IT IS MY JOB TO PROTECT THAT POSITION. I will take action to either protect through hedging, or trading around that position, but I cannot stress enough, this strategy allows you to be wrong, and still profit. It is my central strategy. Some people are married to crypto, stocks, or indices. I'm married to profit. This strategy affords me the highest probability of profiting the vast majority of times. 2. Giving price the benefit of the doubt, I have to claim the 3788.50 bottom in mid December is our b wave bottom. If I get get proven wrong so be it...but risk management dictates for me to posture my trading that price is going to 4300-4500. I do not see it going there in February...but I'm going to be open minded. 3. Therefore based on our b wave being done we have key resistance areas at: (1) 4180 which is the prior high (2) 4207.50 .618 Extension of our a and b waves (3) 4309.25 is the .618% retracement level of the entire decline. Expect a reaction here. (4) 4321.25 .786 Extension of our a and b waves (5) 4327.50 The August 2022 highs (6) 4466.50 The 1.0 Fib Extension If we get over 4180, these are the price points that become essential to me to trade around. If we fail to get above 4180, then we can decline in a flat back down to 3788 area of higher, but that's the parameters as of now. Lets look at the micro count: Whether this is a c wave top (abc off of 3788 not to exceed 4180) or wave 1 of a larger c of b into the 4300-4500 area is yet to be seen. 4180 will answer that question for us. But I'll be watching for a retrace in a wave 2 to potentially put on a long mainly for hedging. I'll update in the morning but this is timely analysis and I wanted you to have it tonight once I finished it. With that I’m done for evening. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
29
SILVER Is Consolidating At The Major Resistance LineUSD has turned sharply lower and stocks turned up after FED interest rates decision yesterday when they hiked by 25bps as expected. A lot of these sharp moves were reversed today, after ECB press conference despite some hawkish tone. It appears that market already priced in this rate decision, and causes buy the rumour sell the news impact, in which market normally clears plenty of stops. Not only EURUSD pair, but another volatile move is also seen on metals today with gold and silver coming sharply off as USD INDEX finds a support. From a technical and psychological perspective I like this kind of a reversal on silver, down from a new high, as it makes price action a little more tricky for most of people, but sometimes easy to read when it comes to Elliott Wave patterns. We see silver in uptrend, no doubt, but as normally, market will tend to slow down at important levels or lines. I see price now consolidating at the 2021-2022 trendline. I see here ongoing but complex wave four. It can be a flat or possibly even a triangle if price stay above 22.80, but in both cases I think that silver is a buy-a-dip after this current leg down. The support zone for a turn up is at 22-23 area. If bulls will manage to defend that area then break out of a 2021-2022 channel can be very significant.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by ew-forecast
1
Morning Update: ADA Count UpdateADA has extended in it's wave 5 of primary 1. This over lapping grind higher appears to be an ending diagonal for completion of wave 1. If my count is correct our retrace should come into the area of origination which is .27. However, I prefer to wait to see how price behaves over the course of this upcoming weekend. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by maikisch
3
Morning Update: Solana still looking strong towards the upsideSolana has been consolidating since Saturday 1/21 high into $26.55. I have posted an alternative wave c of 2 FLAT. We appear to be moving impulsively on the smaller timeframes however, this is most likely part of the (c) of c subdivision. Obviously if we breach $26.55 we may be ready to take off. This is precisely why I said its risky to sell out of entire positions as wave 2's can be shallow or deep. However the more we consolidate in this area the higher the probability this retrace will be shallow by virtue of time. Things may be about to get very exciting in Solana...Once we breach $26.55 I'll be able to dial in our targets on the upside. Suffice to say, the next time we move above $26.55 we will get into the 30's pretty quickly and end up for our primary wave 3 in the 40's. Let's see what clues we get throughout the remainder of the week. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by maikisch
9
Morning Update: Looking at the Bullish PerspectiveIt's hard to get excited about something you don't like. That's the best way to describe this pattern...I don't like it. But moving forward the below becomes my primary micro count in (black) as I believe it has earned the benefit of the doubt. I have an alternate count in (purple). However, I'm tracking this final move higher as impulsive so all the target boxes are areas I expect price to enter for each remaining wave. I can only assume we're going to extend because as of right this structure only points to 4240-4268.50. So if we are going to extend, wave 3 is where we should start to see some of that occur. I am watching closely to see if price behaves by hitting ALL the ideal areas. Failure to do so may signal we're coming up short. First test is we should get one more poke higher to complete wave v of 3 into the 4177.50-4188 area. Our minor wave iv may not be done so a trip down to 4020-4040 should not be a surprise. Our MACD indicators are starting to show overbought levels...so a longer drawn wave iv makes sense. My purple count supposes we could top where I'm counting wave 3. We do not get our first sign we have topped until we breach 4048.50 and confirmation comes ONLY with a breach of 3901.75. If we top in purple it is quite possible this entire move up will only be the a wave of larger B. That would certainly solve the time duration issue I have had. Key is to observe if price remains impulsive or if cracks start to emerge signaling we will not be hitting the standard retracement area for our larger b-wave this go around. My goal is try to get my short position in a more delta neutral posture with a hedge of some sort. If I do anything to hedge, I'll update this post so if interested keep referring to this post to get the play by play. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
6