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Elliottwaveprojection

DXY In An Intraday Corrective RecoveryUSD Index turned down in October 2022 where we think that the dollar might have seen an important, multi-year top. Notice that the decline is strong and impulsive, meaning that there can be more weakness coming this year. However, because of the lower swing high, around 104, there is also a chance that this is a big triangle on a daily chart, but also bearish structure. So in either case, we think that DXY can be headed to 100 this year, which can come in play after A-B-C rally is done. US Dollar - DXY is in new intraday recovery mode, which looks to be corrective as an A-B-C zig-zag pattern. Ideal resistance comes around 103.50 area, from where we should be aware of a bearish continuation.
TVC:DXYShort
by ew-forecast
7
Weekly Update: Tracking a Top in the SP500 FuturesIn mid-June the SPX Futures hit a high of 4493.75. Let’s examine the data points, the characteristics of the subsequent price action, and attempt to see if the SPX Futures Market topped at 4493.75. Since futures bottomed in October of 2022 at 3502, price advanced for 8 months so far has appreciated by 28.3%. With market analysts, money and asset managers, and financial news reporters all weighing in on whether we’re in a new bull market or not, let’s see if there is more of a quantitative method to gain insight into the answer to that question. I will state unequivocally, that until price breaches 3502, there is nothing confirming that the market did NOT bottom in October. Comparatively, until price breaches 4808.25, the all-time highs of 2022, we’re not confirmed the longer term trend is bullish. Objectively, the truth is price is digesting previous gains off the Covid-19 lows of 2020. That is all we can say definitely. However, much like an investigator trying to solve a crime, there are clues that can point us in the direction of a reasonable conclusion. To the degree those probabilities favor one direction or the other, from there we can begin to devise a trading strategy. Counter-Trend Price Action Having topped at 4808.25 in January of 2022 price declined approximately 27% in 10 Months and bounced in from 3502. Since then, our recent high of 4493.75 came into the area of between the .618% and the .786% retracement level. Actually, closer to the .786% having exceeded the .618%. This length of price retracement more than fulfills a standard retracement for counter price action. However, this data point alone, does not confirm the counter trend rally has concluded and the previous trend down will resume. Additionally, the entire pattern off the October lows resembles the kind of corrective price action we would expect as it is very overlapping in nature. Only towards the end of the pattern did price become impulsive, and that is easily attributed to a c-wave. The counter trend price action by itself is not conclusive evidence that a top has been struck. However, it supports that case more so, than invalidates it. MACD divergences The interesting thing about the move off the October lows is MACD is the entire advance occurred on negative divergence. I’ve written about this before and this also supports the price action as corrective. This was not a strong rally in terms of what normally is associated with Bull Market advances. In summary and based on the price action as of today, I would have to say that odds favor the SPX Futures topped mid-June. Although we have no definitive proof, like an impulsive pattern to track to the downside, that may soon enough reveal itself. Based on the odds favoring a top to the price action off the October bottom resembling a corrective retracement of a downside trend, I would expect for price to ultimately breach the October lows of 3502 and head closer towards the 3,000 level sometime in the first half of 2024.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
19
Part [A] Basic of Wave PrincipleElliott Wave background In the 1930s, R.N Elliott identified the price of the stock trends and reversed a specific pattern. This pattern is repetitive in form and, the patterns have predictive value. He decided to use this pattern (Elliott wave theory) to predict the market. The Elliott wave is not primarily a trading system. It is a detailed description of how the market acts. The Elliott wave is part of technical analysis. Also, the Wave principle is the reassembled form of dow theory. -Elliott Wave Principle The key To Market Behavior] Waves in the market? We all know that price never moves in a straight line. It will neither fall in a straight line nor rise in a straight line. Price will create highs and lows. And this high and low creates waves. Elliott wave theory is all about counting waves and, we are going to use the Elliott wave to trade the market. Now, the concept of waves is acceptable for you. Elliott wave theory is made of 5+3= 8 waves. Let me show you that structure in both trends. In bull market ( UP Trend ) : Figure 1.1 This is the Elliott wave structure in an uptrend. As we discussed, Elliott's wave theory is made up of 5+3=8 waves. Where five waves move with the trend and three waves move against the trend. In Bear market (downTrend) Figure 1.2 This is an example of Elliott wave theory in the Bear market. We can see that five waves move with the trend and, three waves move against the trend. Take a deep breath, I know you have lots of doubts in your mind. Let me solve some. 1. Elliott wave theory works in any time frame. 2. These 5+3=8 waves will give us a market edge. It will provide strong trends & trend reversals. 3. The accuracy of Elliott wave theory is 84% of you are using the wave principle correctly. Practical Example of Elliott wave theory : In the Bull market : Figure 1.3 This is the TATA MOTORS 4 hour timeframe chart. I used bar charts because It is easy to recognize Elliott's waves in bar Patterns. Well, it works for me to recognize if you feel that you can recognize patterns in another chart, go ahead with bar charts! In Bear Market: Figure 1.4: This is the ITC daily time frame chart. It shows the beautiful Elliott wave structure in the Bear market. Elliott wave structure : Now, we all know that Elliott is made of a 5+3= 8 wave structure. So, Let's start getting into it! To understand the wave principle, we have divided the wave structure (5+3=8) into two Phases which are an Impulse phase/structure & a corrective phase/structure. Figure 1.5 This picture illustrates Two phases of the Elliott wave principle. The impulse phase is made up of 5 waves and, the corrective phase is made up of 3 waves. Figure 1.6: This picture divides the wave principle into two phases. 1. Impulse phase/structure ( which includes five waves and, which moves with the trend you can see in bull market impulse phase is going upward and in a bear market, impulse phase is going down which is directional move.) & 2. Corrective Phase/structure ( which includes three waves and which moves against the trend, you can see that in bull market corrective phase is going downward and In bear markets, the corrective phase is going upward, which is a counter-trend move. Figure 1.7 , Elliott wave has 2 phases. motive/Impulse phase ( directional move ) and corrective phase(counter trend move). We can divide these 2 phases into two types of waves. Impulsive waves and corrective waves. Let’s zoom in on the impulse phase to understand the underlying structure and wave behavior. Motive/Impulse Phase : Important things about the impulse phase 1). Motive/Impulse phase is a Five wave structure that includes wave1,2,3,4 & 5. 2). motive/Impulse phase is a directional move ( moves with the trend.) 3). The Ending point of the impulse phase is the starting point of the corrective phase. 4). motive/Impulse structure is powerful than corrective structure. 5) Impulse phase can divide into two types of waves i) Impulse waves: 1, 3,5 ( move with Trend of impulse Phase ) ii) Corrective waves: 2,4 ( Moves against the trend of Impulsive Phase) Let me give you a quick understanding because we are going to cover these waves in-depth, Impulsive waves are trend-following moves. We can find this type of wave structure in both phases. Impulsive waves create trends. Impulsive waves are (1,3,5,A,C). Corrective waves are counter-Trend moves. We can find this type of wave structure in both phases. Corrective waves provide pause to continue the trend, Corrective waves : (2,4,B) Motive/Impulse Phase in Bull market Figure 1.8(A) , wave 1,3,5 is an impulsive wave of impulse phase because The trend of impulse phase up and, Impulsive wave are following the trend and heaving upward move. And wave 2,4 is the corrective wave of an impulse phase because the trend of the impulse phase is up but, the corrective wave is moving down, which is against the trend. Figure 1.8(B) , wave 1,3,5 is an impulsive wave of impulse phase because the trend of Motive/impulse phase down and Impulsive wave are following trend and heaving downward move. And Wave 2,4 is the corrective wave of an impulse phase because the trend of the Impulse phase is down but, the corrective wave is moving upward, which is against the trend. Corrective Phase/structure : Important things about the impulse phase 1). The Corrective Phase is a three-wave structure that includes waves A, B, C. 2). The corrective phase is a counter-trend move ( moves against the trend.) 3). The Ending point of the corrective phase is the starting point of the Impulse phase. 4) correction phase can divide into two types of waves i) Impulse waves: A, C ( move with Trend of correction Phase ) ii) corrective waves: B ( moves against Trend of correction Phase ) Corrective Phase in a bull market: Figure 1.9(A) : wave A, C is the impulsive wave of the Correction phase because the trend of the correction phase is down and Impulsive waves are following the trend and heaving downward move. And Wave B is the corrective wave of a Correction phase because the trend of the Corrective Phase is down but, the corrective wave is moving upward which is against the trend. Figure 1.9(B): wave A, C is the impulsive wave of the Correction phase because the trend of correction phase Up and Impulsive waves are following the trend and heaving Upward move. And Wave B is the corrective wave of a Correction phase because the trend of the Corrective Phase is Up but, the corrective wave is moving down, which is against the trend. Impulsive wave structure: 1. Impulsive waves are directional moves that are bigger than corrective waves. 2. Impulsive waves create trends. 3. Impulsive waves are subdivided into five waves. ( that means wave 1,3,5, A, C which moves with the trend will have five sub-waves.) 4. Impulsive waves are easy to recognize. (Impulsive waves can also be called motive waves) 5. Ride of impulsive wave can give us a high probability trade setup with high Rewards We are going to cover impulsive wave formations in the next part. (diagonals,extensions,Impulse,Truncation) Figure 1.10: As we discussed, Impulsive waves subdivide into five waves. Here wave 1,3,5, A, C has five subwaves which you can see in the chart. See you in the next part. @forextidings
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by forextidings
2
How to Count Waves Using Chart Patterns?We can count waves using traditional patterns like Head and shoulders, Double Top and Bottom, Triangle, cup & handle, etc. This article is about how you can count waves by identifying chart patterns. I have covered Three chart patterns in this article, 1) Triangles 2) Head and shoulders 3) Double Top and Bottom 1) Head and shoulders: In addition, the two lows formed when the price failed to rise and fell back down were basically at the same level. The horizontal line is often referred to as the "neckline" When the price fails to fall back for the third time neckline will break. So "head and shoulders" was officially established. Changes in volume with head and shoulders: During the formation of "head and shoulders", the left shoulder has the largest volume, the Head has a slightly smaller volume, and the right shoulder has the smallest volume. The phenomenon of diminishing trading volume shows that when the stock price rises, the chasing force is getting weaker and weaker, and the price has the meaning of rising to the end. Operation plan after the Head and shoulders appear: When the head and shoulders formed, you can decisively follow up the short order. The formation of the head and shoulders indicates the beginning of a new round of decline in the market, and the minimum drop is the distance from the head to the neckline. The profit is very substantial. Therefore, studying the formation of the Head and Shoulders is also a necessary analysis process for band enthusiasts. Wave Count: The left shoulder: wave 3/A. The first touch on the neckline: wave 4/B Head: wave 5/C The second touch on the neckline: wave A/1 The right shoulder: wave B/2 The ending point of the right shoulder: wave C/3 2) Triangles: These are the most commonly used triangle patterns. In this motion, we are going to understand the triangle in terms of the Elliot wave. We'll be talking about the classical triangle pattern in an upcoming educational series. Wave Count: A triangle forms in corrective waves. There are Four corrective waves in Elliott wave theory. The corrective waves are 2,4, B, and X. There are four waves in a triangle which are A, B, C, D, E. The starting point of wave A of the triangle is the ending point of impulsive wave 1/3/A/W. After the completion of wave E of wave 1/3/A/W, the Impulsive wave will initiate. 3) Double Tops and Bottom: In the chart, you can sometimes see the stock price fluctuations. The stock price fell back after reaching the highest price. After some sorting, it rose again to near the previous stock price level and then fell back. Two "normally highs" The high point is formed on the circuit diagram and will not be seen again in the short term. Wave Count: In a Bull market, The first Top of the pattern represents the completion of the impulsive wave. The ending point of the Impulsive wave is the starting point of the corrective wave. I started the wave count from the first Top and labeled it as A, B, and C waves. In a Bear Market, The first Bottom of the pattern represents the completion of the impulsive wave. The ending point of the Impulsive wave is the starting point of the corrective wave. I started the wave count from the first Bottom and labeled it as A, B, and C waves. After wave C is complete, we can ride the impulsive waves.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by forextidings
3
💥Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): Pullback in Short Term?Together we have followed the last part of this rally (see chart below) correctly, but now we cannot rule out some corrective structures in near term. That said, the trend is bullish on Daily and Intraday Charts, so if you decide to take a short position, you have to wait for a bearish signal. From our point of view, if BITSTAMP:BTCUSD triggers a corrective structure, it could form something like ABC Pattern. The simplest strategy is to wait for the first bearish leg on small time frame and try to take a short position after technical rebound. BULLISH SETUP Like to support my work. Trade with care!
Short
by TheAnonymousBanker
10
USDJPY Is Approaching Strong ResistanceUSDJPY made a sharp reversal in 2022 on a daily chart, and touched 126-130 area after BoJ policy YCC adjustment back in December. However that drop appears completed as we have seen a strong bullish reversal in the lat few months, but it's just another corrective recovery that can be now slowly approaching the end. It's ideally an A-B-C move up to 142 resistance area where we can expect a bearish turn still this year. Alternatively, this can even be W-X-Y from 127 lows, but still a corrective and temporary higher degree pause for wave B/II. A drop and turn back below 137 can be the first evidence of a top in place.
Short
by ew-forecast
Bitcoin Analysis - 2023.06.15INDEX:BTCUSD CMP: 24955 BTC has completed wave 4 (black color) - which is a triple three WXYXZ (blue color) type of correction - around 24770, which is also the top of Wave 1 (black color). - Confirmed by internal wave counts of WXYXZ. - Hourly TF shows positive RSI Divergence - Hourly TF shows early indication of MACD crossover with MACD line crossing above signal line - Hourly TF shows increased volume One can go long from here for target of 30800 - 32300 - 34600. SL should be daily close below 24800.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by MalayKJ
AUDNZD Is Finishing A Corrective RallyAUDNZD pair made an impulsive sell-off at the end of 2022 on a daily chart, which we see it as a wave (A). Since then, we can see it trading in a larger A-B-C corrective rally within wave (B) that can be now approaching important February highs resistance, from where we should be aware of another sell-off for a higher degree wave (C). Basic Elliott wave pattern with an impulsive five-wave 1-2-3-4-5 decline, followed by a three-wave A-B-C correction indicates for more weakness.
Short
by ew-forecast
AUD/USD: Perfect Bearish Leg!As we said in our latest analysis about FX:AUDUSD pair (see chart below), our resistance area has worked properly, and pair has triggered a bearish leg. Having said that, drop has been fast and this confirmed the resistance validity. From a technical point of view, we are now looking for a continuation or reversal pattern on intraday chart. In the next sessions, the pair could give us a clear signal, even if we already have some ideas in mind... RESISTANCE ANALYSIS (Click on Chart below) Like to support my work. Trade with care!
by TheAnonymousBanker
2
Bitcoin possible correction end When & WhereAccording to socionomics, Elliot waves can help in projecting the possible social mood of traders reflected by the price movement. We can see the possible area for the end of wave C as the potential end of wave 2 and the start of bigger wave 3. Time wise, if the 12345 wave take 61.8% of the movement and ABC correction the remaining 38.2% time, we can project the end of correction as you can see on the chart. Fun fact is that also wave 3 ended near 38.2% of the time passed from the considered time projection. We have a lot of bids on the order book of Binance (about 650 at the time of writing) around 25K, the highest since the local top. It gives a possible area for wave C to finish around 61.8% of wave A. But if it goes as much as wave A it can finish around 23K area which has the highest trading volume in case of volume profile. *** The most important point is, according to the fractal principle of Elliot wave theory, 5 waves can be considered as a bigger wave 1 and then the ABC correction as a bigger wave 2, then it can be the start of the wave 3 which is usually the strongest wave among all 5. If the new bigger wave 3 just moves as much as the wave 1 (what we saw since 15K - 30K) it can go up 100%. If you want to know more about the Elliot's wave C: Wave C is the final wave in a typical A-B-C corrective pattern according to Elliott Wave Theory. It's the wave where the price usually experiences a strong movement in the opposite direction of the primary trend. Here are some key points about Wave C: Structure: Wave C usually unfolds as a five-wave impulse sequence (1-2-3-4-5), similar to the pattern seen in the main motive phase. However, in certain cases, it can also unfold as an ending diagonal, a type of structure that is characterized by overlapping waves and tends to appear in the final move of larger patterns. Relationship to Wave A: Wave C is often related to Wave A in terms of their lengths. The most common relationship is equality, meaning Wave C is often the same length as Wave A. Other common ratios based on Fibonacci numbers include 1.618 or 0.618 times the length of Wave A. Finality: Completion of Wave C typically marks the end of the correction and a potential resumption of the primary trend. If the trend was up before the correction started, then the end of Wave C would often be a good buying opportunity and vice versa. Wave C in Expanded Flats: In the case of expanded flat corrections, Wave C moves beyond the end of Wave A. This is a situation where Wave C is an impulse wave and it extends beyond the ending point of Wave A. Characteristics: Wave C tends to be quite powerful and swift, as it represents the final move in the corrective phase and is where the previous trend's participants are finally squeezed out before the main trend resumes. Remember that the Elliott Wave Principle is a form of technical analysis based on crowd psychology and pattern recognition. As such, it's not a guaranteed prediction tool, but rather a way of understanding the structure of market movements. The actual market behavior may not always perfectly align with the principles, and it's always recommended to use it in conjunction with other forms of analysis and risk management techniques.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by NoaTrader
AUD/USD: Technical AnalysisThe technical structure on daily chart is still very interesting, our short term setup has been corrected (see chart below), but now the pair is approaching an important long term resistance around 0.6880 area. That said, we still don't rule out some bullish consolidation in short term, but once the impulsive structure on 1H chart is completed, we expect an interesting corrective structure. OUR SHORT TERM ANALYSIS SETUP Trade with care! Like 🚀 if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
by TheAnonymousBanker
6
Weekly Update: Are we in a new bull market?If you’ll remember in October of 2022 when the SPX had declined 27% since the January all-time highs. It seemed the sentiment and market news were uber bearish with back drop of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by an unprecedented .75 points at its FOMC meetings at the time . Around the December lows, we began discussing in my trading room what the sentiment of traders and the financial news media would have to be once we finally arrived in the gray target box for this corrective rally I thought would persist till summer time. I was clear, that for this forecasted subsequent c-wave down (Red Arrow on Right side of Chart), that sentiment would have to be uber bullish in our B-wave target box. What would transpire afterwards would be a decline of 30% to 40%, so a decline of this magnitude would have to catch traders off guard. Some sort of event driven catalyst. Now, many months later, to listen to CNBC, it appears we’re now in a new bull market. As an Elliottition, this type of sentiment was expected. Even required, as to what comes next. If my analysis is correct, we are soon about to embark on a c-wave decline that would eventually breach the October lows. Additionally, if I am correct, once this c-wave does conclude (around 3,000 -2700 ES), it will take at least couple years or more for price to return to the area of where we are today. So, while everyone is uber bullish, the main data point to consider is price pattern and the MACD indicator. For this entire pattern to be impulsive and give us a chance to get to new highs this would mean we’re now in a wave 3 of an impulsive trend. Wave 3’s are the strongest portion of a 5-wave impulsive trend pattern and they never take place on negative divergence . Wave 3’s persist until negative divergence is broken. If we’re to break the stark negative divergences that have held since the October bottoms (see indictor portion of the chart above) price has little room for any sustained consolidations or declines. No forecast is guaranteed. When forecasting price patterns and trader behavior, support and resistance still apply. SO, to be fair, NO KEY LEVELS OF SUPPORT HAVE BEEN BREACHED that would give us any indication we've topped, or at minimum, the rally is cracking. However, as of now, the MACD indicator is telling us that with each advance of price, we're achieving that on less and less strength. Maybe that changes soon, anything is possible...but in the absence of that, new all-time highs are simply wishful thinking.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
VRA:USD Mean Reversion Targets: +120% / +500%, Algo: +3x / +80xVeracity looks set to pamp! There's multiple golden corner mean reversion trades in play with 80% odds of hitting their targets (as long as the lows hold). This Elliott wave count suggests that Verasity could be entering the most explosive wave, the 3rd with multiple algo targets above. In the past I've noticed setups like this often fail to hit the LOG targets for a 3rd wave so I have left them off this chart and am instead focusing on the higher probability mean reversion and algo targets. Key points: 2 Pitchfork mean reversion trades in play, these are the highest probability trades. Great R:R 2 algo targets in play, these are the second highest probability trades. Potential for explosive 3rd wave Expect resistance at the first pitchfork median line as the weekly resistance is also in line with this target Expect heavy resistance at order block (also contains bear golden pocket) Risk of lows being swept, re enter on a 1-2 retrace if this happens. The high level Elliott wave targets are $4 & $32, I DON'T BELIEVE THESE WILL BE HIT. The trade: Entry 1: as close to the golden pocked as possible, current price: 0.0042500 Entry 2: wait for a .618 retrace if lows are swept and price rebounds. Pitchfork Target 1: 0.008788 (moving higher): 8.7R Pitchfork Target 2: 0.25 (moving higher): 38R - THIS IS THE BEST TARGET, best odds, should play out even if this is corrective & there should be a decent retrace when this hits. Algo target 1: 0.017: 24R Algo target 2: 0.35: 647R Elliott target: 0.056: 97R Stop 1: 0.003787 Stop2: below the .707 of the swing from the new low if sweep happens Risk management: the stop loss is a significant drawdown @ about 11% so compensate for this by entering with a smaller position (risk no more than 2% of account balance for the drawdown) If given the opportunity with additional .618 retracements add to position & move stop to new .707. Take profit at targets and re enter on pullbacks. D.Y.O.R. DO NOT BLINDLY TAKE THESE TRADES. Never Trust. Verify. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS. This is not financial advice. These are just my observations. Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds. Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
Long
by TribeWriter666
6