Retracement To Form Wave 4Good Day!!! Can the Wave 4 Count Be Forming??? Since Price has tested the weekly support level.
Elliottwaveretracement
S&P500: the market took the alternate route.Last week I presented two options " The first is that the S&P500 has completed classic symmetrical triangle. It is a continuation pattern, meaning that the move going into the triangle will continue. In this case it was the move from 3029 DOWN to 2822 that was the initiation move. Assuming SPX2939 was the top of the b-wave, then simple symmetry targets: 2939 - (3029-2822) = 2732. Applying triangle "rules", then depending on where exactly price will move below the lower trendline of the triangle -say at 2829- then we're looking for 2622. So we have a SPX2732-2622 target zone, which we can refine once more price data becomes available.
The other options the market still has at this moment is to complete a diagonal pattern (labeled as "alt: 3", alt: 4"). A simple 5=1 then targets SPX2957. This would best count as what is called an ending diagonal in Elliott wave terms as the sub-waves count best as 3s and not 5s. A break and close below SPX2890 will take IMHO this option off the table. Note how price so far pretty much bottomed right there today... keeping us guessing a bit longer... ;-) "
While the 1st option looked best, also because the QQQ's had a nice triangle pattern forming (see here ) up to last Wednesday, on Thursday the markets threw the proverbial curve-ball as it often does and thus kept us guessing longer and yet again. The price pattern in the current rally still looks and counts best as that of a diagonal, albeit it has already (far) exceeded the ideal price target of SPX2957 I was looking for in that case. BUT, with today's price action we're right back at it as price reached the 78.60% retrace of the prior decline in early August ;-)
So what does all this mean? 1) the recent price action continues to morph into other options as the market provides us with its twists and turns. This constant morphing and adjustment of Elliott wave counts keeps me cautiously bullish as price is moving higher, but normally Bull runs are more straight forward and require less re-adjustments as impulse move much more predicable than corrective structures. 2) There's a considerable amount of upside gaps left below current prices, which may need to get filled first. 3) price is currently sitting right at support, which must be respected until broken. 4) not shown here, but the 50d SMA is currently sitting at SPX2948 and price will have to close below it to change trends from up to down.
So as the markets continue to pull all sorts of confusing stunts I am therefore still viewing this as part of a very complex b-wave. Currently, I have no clear immediate downside set up in place, and with price above its rising 20d, 50d and 200d SMA I am therefore cautiously Bullish. IF you wonder if the rally to SPX2800-4200 has started, I must admit I have no high probability count for that yet. Until then, being cautious is probably the best approach for now. Watch the 50d SMA for further clues.
US 30 in Breakout forming Cup & Handle: Possible new ATH soon!Inverted H&S clearly evident, now has broken above TL from consolidation zone; forming the Cup & Handle. EW (not shown, very unreliable to graph out of consolidation) suggests we may be completing Minor Wave 3, so expect some pullback before another burst higher. An extended Fifth Minor Wave could break 27400 for a new ATH.
Trades very near the 0.786 Fibo now up at 26940, might tag it intraday on Monday. We had an indecisive Harami Cross on Friday, so Monday's candle will be a signal; watch how it closes for indication.
Expect another week of consolidation in the higher price zone as the Handle forms. As we approach the FOMC on 17/18 Sep, and China talks in October, expect ferocious rally fueled by little more than greed and hope. SPX will likely retest the 3K zone and we could well see a new ATH this month. GANN: "Most new ATH occur in September."
Probably not a good place to be short IMO. Still too risky to sell puts, as a fourth wave could be quite sharp, retest the TL and consolidation zone, and bring much pain.
As Bearish as October was last year, it could turn out to be quite Bullish this year, as Trump manipulates global politics to prop markets up for re-election bid.
Any concessions, and even a tepid Deal with China would be perceived as a win for the Administration, in whose best interest resolution before 2020 is paramount.
Going Long on any pullback here; now holding both Bull and Bear spreads on QQQ and SPY, small Bear spreads on DIA, IWM, to close on a retest of support and roll into longs.
IMO am taking a real chance on shorting into the expected Handle, as it might not appear yet this week, so keep positions modest, eh?! Hold those long Bull spreads just in case. In event of a sharp pullback, can roll Bull debit spreads into credit spreads, cover the short OTM calls for net gain and sell calendar spread dailies for credit against the long monthly call positions to offset unrealized losses.
So many ways to play this! The Trend is your Friend, until the End of the Bend. GLTA!
This ain't advice, please don't invest based on this addle-pated crackpot notion!
PS As a sidenote, Moon is Waxing Gibbous at 74%; Full Moon on Saturday 14 September might mark Handle formation. Likely Bullish on Friday the 13th! LOL @astrology...
Elliott Wave View: IYR New All-Time-High in SightIYR is the ticker symbol for U.S. Real Estate ETF. Since the financial crash in 2009, the instrument is steadily rising and currently only $1 from breaking the 2007 all-time high. In the short term chart below, we can see the rally is unfolding as an 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. The impulsive rally started from August 5, 2019 low where wave ((i)) ended at 92.66 and wave ((ii)) ended at 90.75. Wave ((iii)) is in progress and unfolding as another impulse Elliott Wave structure in lesser degree.
A 100% Fibonacci extension measurement from August 5 gives us a possible short term target of 96.45 – 97.8. This can be a possible short term target to the upside. Near term, while pullback stays above 90.76, expect the instrument to extend higher. We do not like selling the instrument. Dips should find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 90.76 low stays intact. In the larger degree, if IYR makes all-time high by breaking above 2007 high (95), that should create a bullish sequence and open further upside in the larger degree.
Elliott Wave View: How High Can Silver Go?Since forming the low on November 2018 at $13.9, Silver has rallied 40% to current price of $19.4. The move higher from $13.9 low took the form of a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. On the 1 hour chart below, we can see wave (4) pullback ended at $16.92. The metal has since resumed higher in wave (5) with subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from $16.92, wave 1 ended at $18.65 and wave 2 ended at $18.02.
Near term, while dips stay above $18.02, Silver should continue to see more upside. We don’t like selling Silver and expect buyers to appear to buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing. This view is valid as far as pivot at $18.02 low stays intact in the first degree. Possible target to the upside is 2.618% Fibonacci extension from Nov 2018 low which comes at $20.2 – $20.3 area. This is likely going to end only wave ((3)) in higher degree from Nov 2018 low, so it won’t end the entire rally yet. After it reaches the target of $20.2 – $20.3, Silver has chance to do a larger pullback to around $18 – $19 in wave ((4)) before another leg higher to end 5 waves up from November 2018 low.
Elliott Wave View: EURJPY Remains Under PressureEURJPY shows an impulsive Elliott Wave structure from July 1, 2019 high (123.36). On the chart below, wave ((iii)) of that impulse ended at 116.5 and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 118.2. The internal of wave (iv) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Wave (a) ended at 117.77, wave (b) ended at 117.18, and wave (c) of ((iv)) ended at 118.19. Pair has resumed lower in wave ((v)) with the internal unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure of lesser degree.
Down from 118.2, wave i ended at 117.05, wave ii bounce ended at 117.94, wave iii ended at 116.35, and wave iv bounce ended at 116.7. Wave v of (i) ended at 115.86 low. Pair now should bounce in wave (ii) to correct cycle from August 26 high (118.2) before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce and expect bounce to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 118.2 high stays intact.
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) Resumes HigherShort Term Elliott Wave structure in 10 Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests the pullback to 129.28 ended wave IV. The note has resumed higher in wave V. The internal subdivision of wave V is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 129.28, wave 1 ended at 131.19 and wave 2 ended at 130.26. Internal of wave 2.
The Note has resumed higher and broke above wave 1 at 131.19. This suggests the next leg higher in wave 3 has started. Near term, while pullback stays above 130.24 in the first degree, and more importantly above 129.28, expect the Notes to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Note, and expect buyers to appear once wave ((ii)) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing.
*Please note that market opened up with a gap*
Elliott Wave View: Gold Likely Still Has More UpsideShort Term Elliott Wave structure in Gold suggests the rally to $1528 on August 16 ended wave 1. The precious metal then pullback to $1492 which ended wave 2. The internal subdivision of wave 2 unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1492, wave ((w)) ended at $1492.9 as a zigzag. The bounce to $1508.76 ended wave ((x)) and the next leg lower to $1492.16 ended wave ((y)) of 2 with subdivision also as another zigzag.
The metal has since resumed higher in wave 3. The internal of wave 3 is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 1492.16, wave ((i)) ended at $1555.33 and wave ((ii)) ended at $1520 Near term, while above $1520, and more importantly above $1492.16, expect Gold to extend higher. The precious metal still needs to break above wave ((i)) at $1555.33 to confirm that the next leg higher has already started. We don’t like selling Gold and expect the precious metal to continue supported as far as pivot at $1492.16 low stays intact.
Elliott Wave View: Silver Remains SupportedShort Term Elliott Wave structure from the chart below suggests the rally in Silver to $17.5 ended wave (3). The metal then pullback in wave (4) to 16.91 with internal structure as a triangle. Triangle is labelled as ABCDE with subdivision of each leg in 3 waves. Triangle is therefore a 3-3-3-3-3 structure. In this case, wave A ended at 16.5, wave B ended at 17.39, wave C ended at 16.83, wave D ended at 17.19, and wave E ended at 16.91. We can also see each leg in the triangle subdivides in another 3 waves.
The metal has resumed higher in wave (5). Up from 16.91, wave 1 ended at 17.77 and wave 2 pullback ended at 17.49. Wave 1 subdivided as a 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 17.14 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 16.96. Up from there, wave ((iii)) ended at 17.74, wave ((iv)) ended at 17.55, and wave ((v)) of 1 ended at 17.77. Silver still needs to break above 17.77 to confirm the next leg higher has started and avoid a double correction. We don’t like selling the metal. As far as pivot at 16.91 stays intact, expect Silver to extend higher.
Elliott Wave View: Netflix Structure Looking Further DownsideElliott Wave structure in Netflix shows an incomplete bearish sequence suggesting the stock should continue to see selling pressure. On the chart below, the rally to 316.59 ended wave 2. The stock has extended lower in wave 3 with the internal unfolding as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 316.59, wave ((i)) ended at 288 and wave ((ii)) ended at 311.75.
Wave ((i)) subdivided in another impulse structure of lesser degree. Wave (i) ended at 305.68 and wave (ii) ended at 316.43. Stock resumed lower and ended wave (iii) at 292.65, wave (iv) ended at 301.73 and wave (v) of ((i)) completed at 288. The internal of wave ((ii)) correction subdivided as a zigzag. Wave (a) ended at 303.55, wave (b) ended at 295.76, and wave (c) of ((ii)) ended at 311.75.
Wave ((iii)) is currently in progress and the internal subdivides as a 5 waves impulse of lesser degree. Down from 311.75, wave (i) ended at 293.15. Expect wave (ii) bounce to hold below 311.75, and more importantly below 316.59 for further downside. We don’t like buying the stock. As far as pivot at 316.59 high stays intact, the stock should resume lower. The bearish view will get further validation if the stock is able to break below August 15 low (288).
USDCHFIs the most respected pair that never disappoint. We're bearish on USDCHF and our long term target is 0.96000
Hope you'll catch this as it's going to be very profitable.
ROKU update: wave-iv complete or more complex!?In my first update on ROKU, on August 9, I warned "bears would want to step aside until at least 138-140" as that price zone would provide for a more substantial top. I was then looking for " Based on Fib-extensions and retraces we should see this wave-iii top at around 138-140, then a pullback to about 112ish for a wave-iv of 5, before wave-v of 5 ideally targets the 148-150 zone. ". Price reached $142 on August 14 and dropped as expected, but so far only to $127 last Friday, and is now trying to attack its ATH again.
So is all of wave-iv already in? It is possible as 4th waves can be shallow, but 4th waves are also known to be more often than not complex price structures (triangles, flags, and flats). So in this case, ROKU could be working on wave-b of iv, which can move beyond the ATH before wave-c of iv takes hold to bring price back down. Now this possible wave-c can then go beyond $127 or stall there. We don't and can't know this before hand. In the former case it will then be a regular "expanded flat" and in the latter case a less common "running flat". Time will tell... Bottom line, the bigger trade-able top from a short perspective has IMHO most likely not yet arrived and Bears would want to continue be nimble here as the irregular b-wave can reach as high as $144-149.
For now, the advance off Friday's low looks on a micro-scale better as 3 waves up, but can nonetheless still reach $149-153 if it wants to based on Fib-extensions and "a-wave to b-wave" relationships. That price level, in turn and however, would also fit with the wave-v of 5 of Cycle-C high (baring any possible extensions) and thus overall provide for a much better "top."
Trade Safe!
GBPUSD Target Price 1.19091GBPUSD Horizontal Contracting Triangle Trading Strategy
The Elliott Waves Theory refers to a Symmetrical Forex Triangle as a Horizontal One. If the triangle contracts, Elliott called it a horizontal contracting triangle.
Pennant, Symmetrical Triangle, Horizontal Contracting Triangle.
EURGBP SELL Onda inversa y Ondas de ElliotA través de un contéo de ondas de Elliot, se puede ver la culminación del ciclo alcista completo, ya presenta divergencia importante y el precio está en una zona diaria y semanal notoria. Para la entrada se busco un numero Fibo donde se tiene por onda inversa el 100% de 3 a5 que confluye con el -0.61 del retro
Nifty possible wave count and future pathThis shows the internals of the expanded flat, as detailed in one of the previous updates (link attached), that Nifty might be forming. This is a rather far-fetched view and the view is correct conditional on Nifty following each of the above arrow. At this stage, this seems to be the most likely future pattern.
GOLD - Possible reversal zone /*WEEKLY EW PREDICTION*/I think that this red zone is propable reversal zone and ongoing downtrend (correction) after (post-crisis 2008) buuble on GOLD. Maybe its another **** prediction :)
Elliott Wave View: EURUSD Continues LowerElliott Wave view suggests the decline in EURUSD from June 25 high (1.1412) is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((iii)) of this 5 waves can be seen on the chart below and subdivides in another impulse of lesser degree. Wave (i) ended at 1.1198, and wave (ii) bounce ended at 1.1282. Pair then declined in wave (iii) towards 1.11. and wave (iv) ended at 1.118. Wave (v) seems to be missing 1 leg, thus while pair stays below 1.118, it can see a marginal low to end wave (v) of ((iii)).
Afterwards, pair should do larger bounce within wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from July 11 high (1.1286) before the decline resumes. Shorter cycle, as we are near the end of wave ((iii)), it is risky to chase the weakness at this stage. However, we don’t like buying the pair and expect any rally to find sellers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Later bounce in wave ((iv)) should fail while pivot at 1.1286 stays intact. Pair should then decline 1 more leg lower within wave ((v)) to complete a 5 waves down from June 25 high.
US Dollar Huge Sell Off Wave AnalysisYes I am still Bearish on the US Dollar! The bullish corrective structure that started on June 19th have turned out to be a deep zig zag corrective pattern that could be finding resistance at the 88.6% fibonacci level of the initial bearish decline. I am expecting the highs that the Dollar created on May 18th of 98.37 to hold strong. I am looking for a big move to the downside to start the bearish wave 3 as the Dollar weakens
Apple Elliott Wave View: Break Higher Is ImminentElliott wave view in Apple ticker symbol: $AAPL suggests that rally from June 04 low ($170.27) is showing nesting higher as impulse Elliott wave structure where a pullback to $197.60 ended lesser degree wave ((iv)). Up from there, the stock rallied higher in 5 waves structure and ended wave ((v)) $206.11 high, which also completed wave 1. Down from there, the stock corrected the rally from 6/14/2019 low in wave 2 pullback.
The internals of that pullback unfolded as an Elliott wave Flat structure where wave ((a)) ended in 3 swings at $202.80 low. Wave ((b)) bounce ended with another 3 waves at $206.70 high. Down from there, wave ((c)) unfolded in lesser degree 5 waves & ended the wave 2 pullback at $202.23 low. Above from there, the stock already made a new high above previous peaks making the 1-hour cycle from June 04 & June 14 low bullish to the upside favoring more strength.
Near-term, while dips remain above $202.23 low expect the stock to extend higher in an impulse structure looking for more strength & to see a break above May 2019 peak to catch up with rest of indices & ETF’s like SPX, YM & XLK, etc. We don’t like selling the stock & expect intraday buyers to appear in 3, 7 or 11 swings. As far as a pivot from $202.23 low stays intact.
Elliott Wave View: Gold Should Extend HigherGold shows an incomplete sequence from August 16, 2018 low favoring further upside. Near term, pullback to 1385.34 ended wave (4). The yellow metal has resumed higher in wave (5). Internal of wave (5) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 1385.34, wave 1 ended at 1427.16 and wave 2 pullback ended at 1399.70. Internal of wave 1 unfolded also as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave ((i)) of 1 ended at 1400.03, and wave ((ii)) of 1 pullback ended at 1389.82. Rally then resumed in wave ((iii)) of 1 towards 1420.76, wave ((iv)) of 1 ended at 1418.7, and wave ((v)) of 1 ended at 1427.16
Wave 2 pullback ended at 1399.70 as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((a)) of 2 ended at 1400.56, wave ((b)) of 2 ended at 1419.75, and wave ((c)) of 2 ended at 1399.70. Gold has now resumed higher in wave 3 of (5). Up from 1399.70, wave ((i)) of 3 ended at 1430.08 and wave ((ii)) ended as well at 1414 low. We dont like selling it and prefer more upside against 1399.61 low.
Gold Big Buy Set Up Wave AnalysisI am looking for Gold to push higher to 1500.00 price point for target 1 and eventually retest the highs around 1900.00 I believe the corrective structure is coming to an end and a big Bullish wave is in front of us.
