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Elliottwaveretracement

Elliott Wave View: Gold Can See Profit TakingGold has ended the cycle from August 16, 2018 low at $1347.18 as wave (A). The yellow metal is in the process of correcting the cycle from August 16, 2018 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing within wave (B). Near term, the decline from $1347.18 looks impulsive and ended wave A at $1280.49. The internal of wave A unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from $1347.18, wave ((i)) ended at $1320.79 and rally to $1333.13 ended wave ((ii)). Gold then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) at $1282.7, bounce to $1288.53 ended wave ((iv)), and finally wave ((v)) of A ended at $1280.49. Wave B bounce is in progress to correct cycle from Feb 20, 2019 peak in 3, 7, or 11 swing. Current structure of wave B bounce is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from $1280.49, wave ((a)) ended at $1300.8 and wave ((b)) ended at $1290.2. Expect Gold to see profit taking and sellers at $1310.67 – $1323.36. From this area, the yellow metal can either extend lower below wave A or at least pullback in 3 waves. As far as the current rally fails below $1347.18, we can’t rule out another leg lower to continue the correction from August 16, 2018 low.
FX:XAUUSD
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: EURJPY Should Extend LowerEURJPY has ended the cycle from Jan 3, 2019 low at 127.5. We label this rally from Jan 3 to March 1, 2019 as wave ((X)). This means the pair is in the initial stage of turning lower and eventually can break below Jan 3, 2019 low (118.51). At minimum, the pair should be correcting the cycle from 1/3 low in larger 3 swing. The first swing ended at 124.25 on March 8 as wave ((i)). The internal of wave ((i)) takes the form of as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 127.5, wave (i) ended at 126.14 and wave (ii) ended at 126.53. Pair then declined in wave (iii) to 124.65, and bounce to 125.02 ended wave (iv). The last push lower to 124.25 ended wave (v) of ((i)). Wave ((ii)) bounce is currently in progress to correct the decline from March 1 high (127.5) as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 124.25, wave (w) ended at 125.2 and wave (x) ended at 124.78. Wave (y) of ((ii)) is expected to see sellers at 125,75 – 126.3 blue box area and pair can either resume to new low from here or pullback in 3 waves at least. As far as pivot at 127.5 high stays intact, expect pair to see sellers in 3, 7, 11 swing and extends lower.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: EURUSD What’s Next?Last week the ECB (European Central Bank) has downgraded their economic growth and inflation forecast. In addition, it has announced a fresh stimulus in the form of TLTRO (Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations). This is basically a long term loan given to banks to increase loan creation. If the banks can lend above a specified benchmark, then they will be able to borrow from ECB at a negative rate. This will provide incentive for the banks to lend and thus increase private spending in the economy. EURUSD fell 120 pips as a response and broke below the previous low on 11/12/2018 at 1.1216. This has created a bearish sequence in the pair and favors further downside. The decline from 2/28/2019 high (1.1419) is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure where wave (i) ended at 1.1357, wave (ii) ended at 1.1408. Wave (iii) ended at 1.1290 and wave (iv) ended at 1.13253. Below from there it ended wave (v) of ((i)) at 1.11758 low. Near term, while bounce stays below 1.1421, expect pair to extend lower. We don’t like buying the pair and prefer further downside while rally fails in 3, 7, or 11 swing below 1.1421.
Short
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: DAX Structure Remains BullishShort Term Elliott Wave view in DAX shows a bullish sequence structure from December 28, 2018 low, favoring further upside. The Index has potential to reach 100% extension towards 11912 – 12157 before ending cycle from December 2018 low. The rally from December 28, 2018 low is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where wave ((W)) ended at 11321.62 and wave ((X)) ended at 10865.31. Wave ((Y)) rally is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. The first leg wave (A) of this zigzag ended at 11676.86 as 5 waves impulse. Up from 10865.31, wave 1 ended at 11217.3, wave 2 ended at 11018.95, wave 3 ended at 11556.87, wave 4 ended at 11416.08, and wave 5 of (A) ended at 11676.86. Wave (B) pullback is now in progress to correct cycle from Feb 9, 2019 low (10865.31) before Index resumes the rally higher. We are looking for 7 swings lower to complete wave (B) in 11445 – 11341 area where buyers should appear to resume the rally for new highs or produce a 3 waves bounce at least.
TVC:DEU40Long
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: Further Strength in EURAUDShort Term Elliott Wave view in EURAUD suggests the rally from February 21, 2019 low (1.5736) is unfolding as a 5 waves diagonal. Up from 1.5736, wave 1 ended at 1.6019 and the decline to 1.5803 ended wave 2. Pair then continues the rally in wave 3 to 1.6072 and pullback to 1.5935 ended wave 4. In the 1 hour chart below, we can see the internal of wave 3 unfolded as a 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave 2 at 1.58, wave ((i)) ended at 1.5963, wave ((ii)) ended at 1.5876, wave ((iii)) ended at 1.6046, wave ((iv)) ended at 1.5976, and wave ((v)) of 3 ended at 1.607. Wave 4 pullback has ended as a double three Elliott Wave structure at 1.5935. Down from 1.607, wave ((w)) ended at 1.5965, wave ((x)) ended at 1.6038, and wave ((y)) of 4 ended at 1.5935. Near term, while pullback stays above 1.5935, but more importantly above 1.5803, expect pair to extend higher. We don’t like selling the pair and expect further strength in the pair. Possible upside target wave 5 equal to wave 1 comes at 1.621 – 1.627 area.
Long
by Elliottwave-Forecast
BTC:USD Weekly EW Counts with SMA & SAR Support/ResistanceWeekly Timeframe Forecast: Since December 2018 where we bottomed at 3122 and topped at 4236 we've been on a complex corrective structure, which leads me to conclude we're in a B wave formation with a possible C Wave in the works. Here's why: WXY Pattern to retest December 2018 lows ABC Correction to retest the highs at 42K. A possible Ascending Triangle formation (a double top). A wave height extending 1.618 from a B wave ending at 1.272 Fib extension from our recent top at 4190. Sideways Action to test SMAs: After the impulsive drop on Feb 18th, 2019 we're pushing upwards to test the 20W SMA and break through the weekly SAR points along the way (which we haven't done since July 2018). Expect a rejection to retest the 200 SMA (which converges with the ascending trendline of the Ascending triangle and the 1.272 Fib extension from our most recent top at 4190). Confirmations: A bounce off the 200W SMA, a break above the 20W SMA (which we haven't done since July of 2018) and a push above the ascending triangle will confirm this ABC corrective pattern and will catch price up to the 50W SMA. Expect a massive rejection there. Invalidation: A break below the 200W SMA and the December 2018 lows will invalidate the Ascending Triangle formation and the ABC corrective pattern. Thanks for reading. Good luck trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by tvlester
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Should Find Buyers AgainShort Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests the rally from December 26, 2018 low (2348.50) is unfolding as an impulse. Index has ended wave ((3)) of this impulse move at 2816.88. In the chart below, we can see wave (5) of ((3)) move from 2612.42 low subdivides in 5 waves impulse of a lesser degree. Up from 2612.42 low, wave 1 ended at 2738.98 and pullback to 2681.83 ended wave 2. Index then rallied again and ended wave 3 at 2813.49. Wave 4 pullback ended at 2775.13, and wave 5 of ((3)) ended at 2816.88. Wave ((4)) pullback of the larger degree is currently in progress before Index resumes the rally higher in wave ((5)). The internal of wave ((4)) is unfolding as a zigzag where the first leg down to 2767.66 ended wave (A). While wave (B) bounce stays below wave ((3)) at 2816.88, expect Index to turn lower to continue the zigzag correction within wave ((4)). We believe dips in the Index still can see buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for 1 more leg higher in wave ((5)) before cycle from December 20, 2018 low ends. We don’t like selling the Index.
SP:SPXLong
by Elliottwave-Forecast
2
Elliott Wave View: Short Term Bullish in AlibabaShort Term Elliott Wave view in Alibaba is bullish with the rally from February 8, 2019 low ($163.58) unfolding as an impulse. Furthermore, the cycle starting from January 23, 2019 low has not reached 100% target, thus still favoring further upside. Near term, rally from Jan 23 low to $171.05 ended wave ((i)) and pullback to $165.09 ended wave ((ii)). Wave (( iii )) ended 187.45 peak. Up from $165.09, wave (i) ended at $172.68, wave (ii) ended at $169.8, wave ( iii ) ended at $183.72, and wave (iv) ended at $178.71. Wave (v) unfolding as an ending diagonal which ended at 187.45 peak. Below from there, the stock should now pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from Feb 19, 2019 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at $165.09 stays intact, favor more upside in Alibaba in near term.
NYSE:BABALong
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Upward movement coming for Holo(HOT) Helloo! Holo (HOT) at the moment is in the last downward movement of the 4th wave, the wave we are actually in, so I've put my buy orders between the 61.8 and 66% retracement of the 3rd wave(0.00000023) .This level for me is key because here you have -Golden pocket retracement -Top of wave 1 -C wave of 4 we're in will be a 100% extension of A wave of 4 Knowing that as wave 3 is extended,wave 5 could be same lenght as wave 1, I'm gong to take 50% of profits at that level(0.00000040) and if we manage to go higher I'll have a look to the second target which is 161.8% of wave 1 (0.00000051), 'cause you don't want to take profit and lose a potential 3rd wave extension ( if we count this as a 1-2-i-ii instead of a 1-2-3-4). This is a quite risky trade 'cause you could miss the move if price doesn't retrace to the 23 level, because we pretend wave 4 to kiss wave 1, so I have a smaller buy order a 25. Stop loss could be at 19-20 because a wick is "allowed" into price 1 territory. Hope to read your comments and ask to your questions. 31tc01n rul35! cheers Pupulandia
HLong
by pupul4nd14
BTC:USD WXY Correction 2013-15 & 2017-19 ComparisonSummary: 2013-2015 and 2017-2019 bear markets show a similar WXY count supported by a Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line hit and Fib Retracements confluences. WXY Count & FIB Retracement: Measured from the A wave of the W count, both the W wave and Y wave extend 1.272 in 2013-15 Bear Market. Similarly, measured from the A wave, both the W wave and Y wave extend 1.618 in 2017-19 Bear Market. FIB Confluence: In the ABC correction for the Y wave count in 2013-15 Bear Market, wave B extends .50 Fib and bottoms at the .786 extension creating a confluence at the 1.618 retracement. Similarly, in the ABC correction for the Y wave count in 2017-19 Bear Market, wave B extends .50 Fib and bottoms at a 1 to 1 extension creating a confluence at the 1.618 retracement. Schiff Pitchfork: The 1.272 retracement creates a confluence with the Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line (two standard deviations away from the mean). Similarly, the 1.618 retracement creates a confluence with the Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line (two standard deviations away from the mean). Forecast: Sideways movement to test the median line. More sideways movement to break through the median line, test it and finally break through the upper warning line, test it, find support and confirm a Bull Market Run. Invalidation: A rejection by the Median Line in the Schiff Pitchfork or any of the standard deviation lines or price is unable to cross and find support above 6,400 and/or cannot find support at the 200 Week Moving average as it retests it and breaks 2018 December Lows will trigger an WXYXZ correction pattern.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by tvlester
Elliott Wave View: Crude Oil on the Verge of a BreakoutSince bottoming at $42.36 on December 24, 2018, Crude Oil (CL_F) has rallied more than 30%. The initial rally to $55.75 on February 4, 2019 took the form of an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. We label this 5 waves rally as wave ((A)) of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure in higher degree. Then the pullback to $51.27 ended wave ((B)) as the chart below shows. From there, Oil has broken above wave ((A)), suggesting that the next leg higher in wave ((C)) has started. Internal of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse where wave (1) ended at $57.61 and wave (2) ended at $55.02. As is typical of an impulse, we can see the fractal nature with wave (1) further subdivides into 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. Wave (2) unfolded as an Expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure where wave A ended at $56.64, wave B ended at $57.81, and wave C ended at 55.02. Oil is now within wave (3) of ((C)) and should continue higher while dips stay above $55.00, but more importantly above $51.27. This view will gain validity if Oil starts to break above February 22 peak at $57.81. We don’t like selling Oil
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: EURJPY Rally Should ResumeToday we will have a look at the EURJPY 1 hour chart After bottoming on January 3, 2019 low, EURJPY shows a sequence of higher high and higher low. We can see from the chart above that it has a bullish sequence and right side higher stamp. This suggests that pair should resume to the upside as far as dips stay above 124.1 (the invalidation level). Rally from February 9 low (124.14) is currently unfolding as a 5 waves Elliott Wave diagonal structure. Up from 124.14, wave ((i)) ended at 125.54 and pullback to 124.21 ended wave ((ii)). Pair then rallied in wave ((iii)) to 126.30. Below from there it ended wave ((iv)) at 125.54 low. We expect soon the cycle from 02/09 low to end in wave ((v)) of A. Afterwards, EURJPY should do a pullback in wave B in the sequences of 3-7 or 11 swings against 124.1414 low. We dont like selling the pair as the right side is to the upside.
Long
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: Downside Pressure in EURGBPEURGBP shows a sequence of lower low from August 29, 2017 high, suggesting further downside is likely. The bounce to 0.9105 on January 3, 2019 high ended wave (2). From there, pair declines as a double three Elliott Wave structure where wave W ended at 0.8615 and wave X ended at 0.884. Pair broke below wave W at 0.8615 and confirmed that the next leg lower in wave Y has started. From 0.88407 peak the market is currently unfolding as an Elliott Wave Zig Zag structure. Which ended wave (a) at 0.8665 low. Above, from there it ended wave (b) bounce at 0.8730. Below from there we expect it to extend into the blue box area of 0.8552-0.8510, which is the equal legs of wave (a)-(b). Where we expect wave ((w)) to end. Afterwards we expect a bounce in wave ((x)) to occur. As long as the market stays below 0.88407 peak we expect it to extend lower.
Short
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: Dow Jones Futures can soon Starts CorrectionWe are counting the entire rally from December 26, 2018 low as an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. An Impulse has subdivision of 5 waves within wave I, III, and V. And wave III is currently in progress. Internal of wave III subdivides in another 5 waves in lesser degree. On the 1 hour chart, we can see wave ((4)) of III ended at 24862 and wave ((5)) of III is still in progress as another 5 waves of a lower degree. Blue wave (1) ended at 25622 peak, wave (2) at 25273 and wave (3) ended at 25950. Below from there, it ended blue wave (4) at 25748 as flat correction. As long as the pivot at 25748 stays intact, it can extend 1 more time in blue wave (5) of black wave ((5)) of higher degree wave III before a pullback in wave IV can be seen. We dont like selling it as right side is to the upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Bitcoin - I warned bulls to get prepared for a pullback. In my last update on February 19 I warned bulls: "Today, after 30% quick gain off the bottom I want you to cool down. I am still bullish on Bitcoin . But we got wave i up of a larger wave ( c ) up. We may get now a pretty deep corrective wave ii down targeting 3,600. " I count a-b-c move up that topped around 4,280 this night as a completed wave i up off the December 2018 bottom. Off that top we should a corrective wave ii down shaped as a-b-c. This current drop into 3,820 is clearly only the first leg down in wave a of ii. Despite the fact we should get a corrective wave b up and that could get as high as the previous top over 4,000 I would encourage you not to take your chances and wait for a corrective wave b up to top and then you may try to short Bitcoin for the final leg of corrective decline in wave c of ii down. The reason is that wave b is the least reliable wave. It can get as shallow as 23.6% of the preceding drop and you will not be able to close your long. My expectations have not changed. The ideal target for that final decline in wave c of ii is between 3,610 and 3,530. This is where I will start loading bitcoin again. Because off that low we will see a rally in wave a of iii of ( c ) up that should target 4,550 - 4,650
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CastAwayTrader
6
Bear Case If BTC Is In ABCDE TriangleI've been scalping long with tight stops and targets. If I am to get a long term swing trade I want a lower price than right at the triangle top. It is possible that we're in a large sideways ABCDE triangle with the legs formed by ABC corrections. That would mean chopping back into the triangle and the only long term long trade is at the bottom of the triangle support, probably around 3400. This is not a very good hold and hope area on the chart. There's still a lot BTC has to do to prove it is bullish.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by mljones
1
Elliott Wave View: DAX Bullish Sequence Favors More UpsideDAX has broken above February 6, 2019 high (11371.74) and shows a bullish sequence from December 28, 2018 low (10279.20). On the chart below, we put a bullish sequence stamp and right side higher to indicate the direction that we prefer to trade. The correction to 10867.9 low ended wave ((X)) as an Expanded Flat Elliott Wave. A Flat is a 3-3-5 structure with ABC label. The decline to 11051.11 ended wave (A), wave (B) bounce ended at 11371.74. Wave (C) of ((X)) ended at 10863.56. After ending wave ((X)) at 10863.56, the Index has rallied and broken above the previous wave (B) high at 11371.74. This suggests that the next leg higher has likely started. The rally from 10867.9 low is unfolding as an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10867.9, wave 1 ended at 11217.3, wave 2 ended at 11018.95, wave 3 ended at 11371.44, and wave 4 ended at 11244.52. Expect DAX to end the 5 waves move with 1 more leg higher at the blue box area of 11400.25 – 11479.66. Afterwards, the Index should pullback in wave (B) in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct the cycle from February 9, 2019 low. As far as the pullback stays above 10867.9, expect the Index to resume higher again. We do not like selling the proposed pullback.
TVC:DEU40Long
by Elliottwave-Forecast
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/21/2019)Good morning, traders. Price has finally dropped below support and should be heading toward the lower target now. The measured move off that triangle/ascending broadening wedge breakdown is $3750 which is also the 38% retracement of the February 7th move up. As mentioned the past couple of days, that general area should give price a retest of the 2.5 month old descending channel's resistance as support. If price successfully retests resistance as support then, depending on how fast price moves down now, it will most likely to find support around $3750-$3770 with a possible wick down to the H2 R2 pivot at $3740. VPVR suggests that a push beyond these levels should have price targeting the D1 pivot. H1 RSI is bearish at 45, suggesting further downward price movement. Traders should be watching for a breach of the descending channel that H1 RSI is currently printing to suggest that price is likely regaining upward momentum. We also cannot discount the possibility of price ranging between $3815 and $3966 (H1 R3 and R5 pivots, respectively), similar to what happened between February 8th and February 17th. The daily chart shows price hovering around the R1 pivot and median of the large Modified Schiff Pitchfork, just below supply. It also shows price ranging in the top half of the more recent Modified Schiff Pitchfork. D1 RSI is just below overbought and within the upper half of its ascending channel. A break below $3500 suggests a larger move downward. However, a close below the daily pivot at $3615 would have me already preparing for that larger move. As bullish as things look at this time, traders should not allow emotion to cloud their views. Always trade the charts, not what you want the charts to say. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Rallies as an ImpulseSince bottoming at 2346.58 on December 26, 2018, S&P 500 (SPX) has rallied 18% in less than 2 months. The structure of the rally appears like an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. An Impulse structure is a 5 waves move. The Index is now within wave ((3)) of the possible 5 waves move from December 26 low. Subdivision of wave ((3)) unfolded as another 5 waves of lower degree where wave (3) ended at 2738.98 and wave (4) ended at 2681.83. Wave (5) of ((3)) is currently in progress towards a potential target of 2781.12 – 2811.77 (blue box). The Index should then pullback in wave ((4)) to correct wave ((3)) rally from December 28, 2018 low (2397.94). The pullback should later unfold and find buyers in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing. In Elliott Wave Theory, wave 4 typically correct wave 3 at 23.6 – 38.2 Fibonacci retracement. We need to wait for wave ((3)) to complete before we can project a more accurate retracement area. If we assume wave ((3)) ends at 2781 (the blue box), then potential area for the Index to end the wave ((4)) correction is approximately 2635 – 2691. Once the Index ends the correction, it still has a chance to extend higher 1 more leg in wave ((5)). Alternate view suggests that the Index ends wave ((5)) already in the current rally instead of wave ((3)). In the alternate view, Index should correct the entire rally from December 26, 2018 low in the next pullback.
SP:SPXLong
by Elliottwave-Forecast
GBPJPY Elliott Wave Analysis suggesting more downsideShort term Elliott wave structure from 01/25 peak is suggesting that GBPJPY is moving lower as a possible 5 waves structure. We can see subdivision of wave 1 also in 5 waves of a lesser degree. Wave ((i)) ended at 142.22, wave ((ii)) ended at 144.17, wave ((iii)) ended at 141.73, wave ((iv)) ended at 142.45, and wave ((v)) of 1 ended at 141.1. The internal of wave 2 rally unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((a)) ended at 142.63, wave ((b)) ended at 141.7, and wave ((c)) of 2 ended at 143.35. Below from there it ended wave (i) at 141.00 and currently we are calling wave (i) bounce complete at 143.047. As long as it stays below that level but more importantly the pivot at 143.361 stays intact, we expect pair to extend lower but a break above 143.361 can't be ruled out at this stage. We don’t like buying the pair.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: Further Rally in Nikkei FavoredShort-term Elliott wave view in Nikkei suggests that the Index has ended correction at 20169 as wave ((X)) and starts a new leg higher. Decline to 20169 on 8 February took the form of an Elliott Wave Expanded Flat. An Elliott Wave Flat structure has an ABC label with subdivision of 3-3-5. We can see from the 1 hour chart wave (B) of this FLAT ended at 20970 and wave (C) ended at 20169. Subdivision of wave (C) unfolded as a 5 waves Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 20970, wave 1 ended at 20815, and wave 2 ended at 20895. Wave 3 ended at 20270, wave 4 ended at 20370, and wave 5 ended at 20169. The Index has since rallied and broke above the previous high on February 5th, suggesting the next leg higher has started. Rally from Feb 9th low (20169) is unfolding as a 5 waves Impulse structure. Up from 20169, wave 1 ended at 20480 and wave 2 ended at 20390, wave 3 at 21198 and wave 4 at 21060 low. Expect ideally 1 more leg higher in the Index to end the 5 waves up. Afterwards, it should pullback to correct the cycle from Feb 9 low within wave (B) in 3, 7, or 11 swing. As far as pullback stays above 20390 low, expect the Index to extend higher. We don’t like selling the Index.
NLong
by Elliottwave-Forecast