250111 BTC CountingBTC appears to be completing its 4th wave correction, which is taking the form of a complex WXYXZ pattern. The structure suggests we're at the terminal phase of this corrective wave.
Elliott Wave
NAS100/NDX technical analysisTechnical analysis for NAS100 (NDX).
Price shown from 5 August 2024 low.
This count sees price as an ending diagonal from 5 August 2024 low, with a truncated fifth wave finishing at 22084.70.
Completed impulse wave from 22084.70 to 20710.70 (first green ellipse).
Regular flat completed at 21654.70, with impulsive price action afterwards (second green ellipse) which broke below support of 20710.7 today.
Two pitchforks shown, neither of which had their median (red) lines tagged, implying prices will return to pivots at 20309.1 and 18297.4.
Impulse waves (red ellipses) with regular flat corrective wave would either be a zigzag or the beginning of a larger impulse wave down. Given the lower targets involved, this count implies the latter.
Key resistance now 21654.7.
TON Upside Correction
Expecting TON to find resistance in the 5.45 to 5.50 zone for another leg down, completing green V.
This zone is a confluence of 50-61.8% pullback and resistance from lat December lows.
NZDUSD Wave Analysis 10 January 2025
- NZDUSD falling inside weekly impulse wave C
- Likely to fall to support level 0.5500
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the lower trendline of the wide weekly down channel from the start of 2023 (which is acting as the resistance after it was broken in December).
The downward reversal from this down channel accelerated the active impulse C-wave of the weekly downward ABC correction (2) from the start of last year.
Given the strong downtrend on the weekly charts, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall toward the next long-term support level 0.5500 (which stopped the sharp weekly downtrend at the end of 2022).
GRRR rely on HOPE or still try to WAVE countingit can be seen that upon crossing below MA 200, it broke the support with significant volume. 15 minutes, we can see hammer is formed. However if look into 5 minutes.... there is rebound from a certain level of support with volume similar like upon support break.
The question whether this is re-accumulation or cycle of uptrend already finished.... need to be seen...
My ThoughtsWhat I see coming is sells...
Here is why??
I can clearly see that the market had a CHOCH on the 4h
And further more has been trying to hold on to LTF supply Zone's... I think this zone is the last one and the pair will confirm sells in the coming weeks...
Note the pair still needs to confirm with a another CHOCH on the daily time frame before we could sore downwards.
So be careful.
Given that so much buy Liquidity happened and after the sweep the market could continue with the buys.
But until we take our the daily fractal low we still buying
That's my thoughts
Use proper risk management
Let's do the most
EWTSU GOLD future intermediate (4) update
EWTSU GOLD future intermediate (4) update
intermediate (4) a contracting triangle developing
end of minor C - minor D going to start (area 2629)
invalidation 2762
XAGUSD morning analysisTechnical analysis for XAGUSD.
Bearish count is looking for a C wave to take price back towards 17.54.
If median line (red line) of pitchfork can't be tagged, lower prices remain likely.
SP500: Watch This Key Support LevelStrong US jobs data was released today at 14:30 CET, showing 256K new jobs versus the expected 164K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This stronger-than-expected data could lead to more risk-off sentiment, as 97% of speculators now believe the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting. As a result, with stocks pulling back and the USD strengthening, even cryptocurrencies could face more weakness.
Remember, Powell delivered a hawkish cut back in December, when they noted that there can be less cuts in 2025 due to strong economic projections for 2025 which can bring infaltion back up so they must be carefull with rate decision. And this data today is reason why FED may stay on old, rahter than cut and why then stocks can resume even low, which have been in corrective territory since the last Fed meeting in December.The key focus now is identifying the next major support level for stocks. I believe that once stocks turn back to the upside, it could open opportunities across other assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Looking at the S&P 500 futures contract, there has been a slow but steady recovery since early November, following Trump’s win in the US elections. However, the market may attempt to liquidate latecomers who joined the stock rally after Trump’s victory. The 5,700 level on the SP500 futures stands out as a critical support zone, acting as a “stop-loss” level for many positioned in the well-known “Trump trade.” If the price reaches this area, more liquidations could occur, potentially clearing the way for a stronger bounce. Markets rarely move straight up that will profit everyone; liquidations often happen on the way higher. There is no easy money.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the sharp drop from all-time highs looks like an incomplete correction. The current sideways movement likely forms wave B, suggesting that wave C could lead to more liquidations toward the 5,800 level, which I see as a very important support zone.If this is indeed is a triangle in wave B, keep in mind that moves out of triangles are final in the sequence, meaning any drop could be limited before the market turns higher. So, I still believe risk-on sentiment will return, but this may not happen until Trump officially returns to office and market positioning settles for 2025.
Regarding Bitcoin, I see the 85,000–87,000 area as a very interesting support zone, where more downside could be limited.
Grega
GOLD → The market is nervous ahead of NFP. What's next?$FXCM:XAUUSD continues its strong upward movement, but along with the growth there are growing risks of a strong fall. NFP is ahead, and the situation is quite tense....
Fundamentally the situation is confusing, the main nuance is Trump's policy and the hawkish stance of the Fed, which creates pressure on the market, but gold, as we see, is rising due to the growing economic and geopolitical risks associated with Trump's policy, the crisis in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and economic problems in China.
NFP is ahead, which creates additional risks: either an aggressive rise or a breakdown of strong support and the formation of a strong downward momentum.
A weaker NFP may bring back expectations of an aggressive Fed rate cut, causing a broad correction in the US dollar, which could favor gold. Conversely, an upside surprise in NFP and wage inflation data could reinforce hawkish Fed rate hikes.
Resistance levels: 2678, channel, 2693
Support levels: 2675, 2671, 2665
Technically, a strong bullish structure is forming. A break of resistance and favorable news could strengthen the rise to 2700. But, there is an additional scenario: Break of support of the rising structure or 2665 - 2671 may provoke capitulation and fall to 2655 - 2640.
Regards R. Linda!
AUDUSD → Trigger breakdown will trigger a fallFX:AUDUSD is approaching the trigger that can provoke a strong fall. Against the backdrop of a strong and rising dollar, the Aussie doesn't stand a chance yet.
The price is testing the level from the weekly timeframe, the breakdown of which will open the way to the abyss. There is no support until 0.54-0.55. Based on Trump's policy, the Fed's stance and the potential of the Australian dollar we can say that the odds are generally quite high that the price will continue its decline in the medium term expectation.
Technically, on 4H the price is approaching the level of 0.6179. A pre-breakdown consolidation is forming in relation to the level. I do not exclude an attempt to retest the local resistance before further breakout, but the general technical and fundamental situation hints at a decline.
Resistance levels: 0.6199, 0.622, 0.6274
Support levels: 0.6179
Downward channel, retest of support after false breakdown of resistance (deceptive maneuver before a strong fall). Emphasis on the trigger at 0.6179. Breakdown and price consolidation below the level will trigger a fall
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin -> CorrectionBitcoin hit my target 100-120k of last video.
right now I have the 108k it hit as the 5th wave of the move that developed off the $16k bottom and we are looking at a larger correction around the $70k for an A wave.
Looking at the bullish case which is still a decent possibility is that we have hit the C wave or will soon (above 87.5k) and should start moving up again shortly.
if we do get the bullish move, I'm unsure at this moment to say whether we started another big move or it will be moving to another 5th wave top with large correction to follow.
not financial advice
-cryptowaveman
Bitcoin is Ready to Pump Again==>>Short-term!!!As I expected in the previous post , Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) fell to the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) .
Bitcoin is moving in a Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) near the Support line .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that Bitcoin has completed the first 5 downward waves , and we can wait for upward corrective waves . Bitcoin has completed two corrective waves in the 15-minute time frame , and we can wait for the next corrective wave .
From the point of view of Classical Technical Analysis , it seems that Bitcoin has formed a Falling Wedge Pattern in the 15-minute time frame , and if Bitcoin breaks the upper line of this pattern, we can confirm this pattern.
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least $95,170 AFTER breaking the Upper line of the Falling Wedge Pattern .
⚠️Note: If Bitcoin breaks the support line, we can wait for the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) to break.⚠️.
⚠️Note: In general, if you open a Long position, you can keep it up to the Resistance zone($96,680-$95,520) or Risk-Free your position.⚠️
🙏Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.🙏
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
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Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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EUR/JPY 4H: Key Fibonacci and Volume Profile LevelsOANDA:EURJPY EUR/JPY 4H: Key Fibonacci and Volume Profile Levels
Analysis:
Description:
The chart displays the EUR/JPY currency pair on a 4-hour timeframe. It includes several key indicators and annotations such as Break of Structure (BOS), Change of Character (ChoCH), Fibonacci retracement levels, and volume profile. The RSI indicator is also shown at the bottom of the chart.
Analysis:
Price Action and SMC Analysis:
Break of Structure (BOS): Multiple BOS points are marked, indicating significant shifts in market structure.
Change of Character (ChoCH): These points suggest potential reversals or shifts in market sentiment.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Key levels at 0.382 (163.34288), 0.5 (162.977), 0.618 (162.59712), 0.705 (162.3222), and 0.786 (162.06624) are plotted, indicating potential support and resistance zones.
Volume Profile: High volume nodes at 163.612, 163.208, and 160.897 suggest strong interest and potential areas of price reaction.
RSI Analysis:
The RSI is currently around 46.42, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish momentum. The RSI has previously shown oversold conditions, suggesting potential buying opportunities.
Buy Strategy
Entry: Consider entering a long position at the 0.618 Fibonacci level (162.59712) as it aligns with a high volume node and potential support.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 163.208 (61 pips)
Take Profit 2 (TP2):: 163.612 (101 pips)
Stop Loss (SL): 162.06624 (53 pips)
Sell Strategy
Entry: Consider entering a short position if the price breaks below the 0.786 Fibonacci level (162.06624) with confirmation.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 161.500 (56 pips)
Take Profit 2 (TP2):: 160.897 (117 pips)
Stop Loss (SL): 162.59712 (53 pips)
VIP Signal
Buy Signal: Entry: 162.59712 TP1: 163.208 (61 pips) TP2: 163.612 (101 pips) SL: 162.06624 (53 pips)
Sell Signal: Entry: 162.06624 TP1: 161.500 (56 pips) TP2: 160.897 (117 pips) SL: 162.59712 (53 pips)
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This comprehensive analysis leverages Price Action, Smart Money Concepts (SMC), and ICT Elliott Wave strategies to provide detailed buy and sell strategies. The Fibonacci retracement levels, volume profile, and RSI indicators highlight key areas of interest for optimal trading decisions.
GBP/USD Bearish Continuation with Potential Reversal ZonesFX:GBPUSD GBP/USD Bearish Continuation with Potential Reversal Zones
Analysis:
The chart displays the GBP/USD 4-hour timeframe with several key elements:
Price Action and SMC:
Change of Character (ChOCH): Identified at the beginning of the chart, indicating a potential shift in market structure.
Break of Structure (BOS): Multiple BOS points are marked, indicating bearish momentum and confirming the downtrend.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The retracement levels (0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.705, 0.786) are plotted, highlighting potential reversal zones.
Volume Profile:
The volume profile on the right side shows significant volume nodes around 1.26698 and 1.24866, indicating strong resistance levels.
Lower volume nodes around 1.22378 suggest potential support.
Indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently around 33.14, indicating oversold conditions, which could lead to a potential reversal or consolidation.
Buy Strategy:
Entry: 1.22378 (near the support level and oversold RSI)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.23356 (0.382 Fibonacci level) - 97.8 pips
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.23960 (0.618 Fibonacci level) - 158.2 pips
Stop Loss (SL): 1.21700 (below the recent low) - 67.8 pips
Sell Strategy:
Entry: 1.24866 (near the resistance level and high volume node)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.23356 (0.382 Fibonacci level) - 151 pips
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.22378 (support level) - 248.8 pips
Stop Loss (SL): 1.25500 (above the recent high) - 63.4 pips
VIP Signal:
Buy: 1.22378
TP1: 1.23356 (97.8 pips)
TP2: 1.23960 (158.2 pips)
SL: 1.21700 (67.8 pips)
Sell: 1.24866
TP1: 1.23356 (151 pips)
TP2: 1.22378 (248.8 pips)
SL: 1.25500 (63.4 pips)
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This comprehensive analysis provides detailed buy and sell strategies using the Smart Money Concepts (SMC), ICT Elliott Wave, and Price Action strategies, incorporating all relevant indicators displayed on the chart.
Pepe 4 to 5 Wave Zoomed Be careful with the corrective ABC pattern leading to Wave 5. Red line resistance Anchored VWAP from high of wave start.
Fibs drawn from C minor of 4 major Wave and not (4) to c minor.. to get resistance levels. Be careful because Wave 3 (C) is the longest wave. Nice long ride
Pepe Gartley and Elliot WavesLast Wave GOT ME! and now I see!
Sorry such a short description but highly recommend book: ELLITT WAVE FIBONACCI HIGH PROBABILITY TRADING by Jarrod Sanders
HIGHLY RECOMMEND - Chart Champions!
NOTION will rebound from 0.382?Looking at the chart for Notion VTec Berhad, here's my analysis:
Current Price Action:
- Trading at RM1.25, down 0.97%
- In wave iv of a larger Elliott Wave structure
- Price finding support at key Fibonacci levels
Elliott Wave Analysis:
- Completed waves i through iii
- Currently in wave iv correction
- Wave v target projected around RM1.45
Key Technical Levels:
1. Support:
- Major support at RM1.09 (0.618 Fibonacci)
- Secondary support at RM1.00 (0.786 Fibonacci)
- Critical support at RM0.870 (wave i low)
2. Resistance:
- Immediate resistance at RM1.23 (0.382 Fibonacci)
- Major resistance at RM1.45 (wave v target)
- Trend line resistance around RM1.35
Key Points:
- Price bounced from RM1.16 support level
- Moving averages beginning to turn upward
- Volume showing potential accumulation phase
- Trading within an ascending channel
Trading Considerations:
- Wave iv appears to be completing
- Stop loss could be placed below RM1.16
- Risk/reward favorable for wave v setup
- Watch for break above RM1.23 for confirmation
MYEG will be Sideways for a whileLooking at the chart for MY E.G. Services Berhad, here's my analysis:
Current Price Action:
- Trading at RM0.965, up 0.52%
- Currently in a complex corrective pattern
- Price consolidating above moving averages
Elliott Wave Analysis:
- Completed waves (i) through (iv)
- Currently in wave (v) with ABC correction
- Key levels:
* Wave (a) support at RM0.930
* Wave (b) resistance at RM0.975
* Wave (c) target potential at RM0.940
Technical Levels:
1. Support:
- Strong support at RM0.930 (0.382 Fibonacci)
- Secondary support at RM0.870 (0.618 Fibonacci)
- Moving average support around RM0.950
2. Resistance:
- Immediate resistance at RM0.975
- Major resistance at RM1.00 (psychological level)
- Previous wave high at RM0.990
Pattern Analysis:
- Forming a complex correction pattern
- Higher lows indicating underlying strength
- Volume profile showing accumulation
Trading Considerations:
- Watch for break above RM0.975 for bullish confirmation
- Stop loss could be placed below RM0.930
- Risk/reward favorable for long positions
- Volume increasing on recent moves
HARTA finished making wave 4?Looking at the chart for Hartalega Holdings Berhad, here's my analysis:
Current Price Action:
- Trading at RM3.65, up 3.40%
- Recently pulled back from wave iii peak
- Price holding above key moving averages
Elliott Wave Analysis:
- Completed waves i through iii
- Currently in wave iv correction
- Wave v target projected around RM4.08
Key Technical Levels:
1. Support:
- Strong support at RM3.54 (0.382 Fibonacci)
- Secondary support at RM3.39 (0.5 Fibonacci)
- Critical support at RM3.23 (0.618 Fibonacci)
2. Resistance:
- Immediate resistance at RM3.76
- Major resistance at RM4.08 (wave v target)
- Previous high around RM4.00
Financial Events:
- September 2024: MYR-14.633M (-152.96%)
- June 2024: MYR27.628M (+223.48%)
- March 2024: MYR-22.374M (-68.23%)
Trading Considerations:
- Wave iv correction appears nearly complete
- Volume profile supporting potential reversal
- Risk/reward favorable for long positions
- Stop loss could be placed below RM3.39
GCB wave 3, should enter before thisLooking at the chart for Guan Chong Berhad, here's my analysis:
Current Price Action:
- Trading at RM4.11, up 5.12%
- Currently in an uptrend following bottoming pattern
- Price above all major moving averages
Elliott Wave Analysis:
- Completed waves i through iv
- Currently in wave v of the upward move
- Potential target around RM4.32 (wave v projection)
Key Technical Levels:
1. Support:
- Strong support at RM3.68 (0.382 Fibonacci)
- Secondary support at RM3.48 (0.5 Fibonacci)
- Critical support at RM3.29 (0.618 Fibonacci)
2. Resistance:
- Immediate resistance at RM4.26 (recent high)
- Major resistance at RM4.32 (wave v target)
- Previous high around RM4.40
Financial Events:
- September 2024: MYR-436.425M (-6.41%)
- June 2024: MYR-410.132M (+40.40%)
- March 2024: MYR-688.184M (-129189.60%)
Trading Considerations:
- Strong upward momentum
- Volume confirming price action
- Risk/reward favorable at current levels
- Stop loss could be placed below RM3.68
