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Elliott Wave

AUDCAD → Support retest. False breakdown?FX:AUDCAD is within the range. The price is heading towards support within the local distribution. There may not be enough potential for a breakdown of support... Against the backdrop of the strengthening Canadian dollar, the currency pair is ready to test consolidation support. The price has no clear trend, consolidation is forming in the range of 0.891 - 0.885. The price is heading towards support, there is no pre-breakout base, the level is quite strong and the distribution may end with a false breakdown and a rebound... Support levels: 0.8858 Resistance levels: 0.8878, 0.8897 Below the level of 0.8858, there is a fairly large liquidity reserve, and there is no global trend, which means a neutral situation. Retesting the support zone after a sharp decline may end in a false maneuver and growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
4
CRV is Getting Ready For a Skyrocket Move (1D)CRV has formed a Cup & Handle pattern — a well-known structure that typically signals a bullish reversal. From a broader technical perspective, there's additional confluence suggesting a potential trend shift. If the most recent dip holds, it may confirm that CRV has completed its bearish cycle and has now entered a new five-wave bullish structure. Based on the current price action, it's likely that wave 3 is unfolding at the moment. Interestingly, the depth of the Cup & Handle formation aligns well with typical wave 5 targets, offering additional validation for this setup. In this scenario, the wave 3 target sits around $0.78, which also coincides with a previously untapped order block — adding further credibility to the level. For a longer-term outlook, wave 5 could extend above the $1.00 mark, depending on market conditions and overall momentum. Moreover, the Ichimoku Cloud is currently reflecting a bullish bias, with price action moving above the cloud and supportive Tenkan-Kijun alignment — reinforcing the overall bullish outlook. Achieving this target may take time — but as we all know, in crypto, time often behaves differently. — Thanks for reading.
Long
by vs_sayin
Dollar At Resistance; Will Lower CPI Cause New Drop? We had a volatile start of a new trading week. The dollar moved higher across the board as the US and China appear to be moving toward lowering tariffs, suggesting progress toward a potential trade deal. As a result, stock futures are also trading to the upside. However, keep in mind that sharp moves on Monday can easily be reversed through the rest of the week, possibly even today, after US CPI came out lower than expected, which can cause some weakness on yeilds, and possibly FED will be ready to cut rates after-all. So, I think that USD can still come under pressure, especially if we also consider that rise on DXY is in three legs and that a lot fo gaps from this weekend are still unfilled.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by ew-forecast
USDJPY Faces An Intraday Corrective RecoveryUSDJPY Faces An Intraday Corrective Recovery after a bearish impulse, which can later send the price lower from technical and Elliott wave pespective. USDJPY is sharply bouncing after reaching May lows within the wedge pattern for wave »v« of an impulse, so it can be now trading in a higher degree abc correction, which can recover the price back to 145 – 146 resistance area before bears return. Basic bearish Elliott wave pattern shows that a five-wave impulsive decline indicates for more weakness after a corrective three-wave pause.
Short
by ew-forecast
USDJPY Shooting Star + Elliott Wave Spells TroubleUSDJPY bounced higher from a horizontal support shelf created from August - September 2024. The bounce is a second wave. The bearish shooting star candle on the daily chart spells reversal for USDJPY. The bearish wave count using Elliott Wave Theory as our guide as suggests deep cuts may be on the horizon for USDJPY. We are considering the next decline to be a third wave at multiple degrees of trend. Additionally, the trend lower would break the support shelf and eventually make it to 122 and possibly lower levels.
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
GOLD → False breakdown and support from the falling DXYFX:XAUUSD , as part of a correction, confirms the upward trend line and returns to the consolidation (range), making a false breakdown of support amid the dollar's correction... The US dollar remains stable thanks to the Fed's hawkish minutes and the court's decision to block Trump's tariffs. Investors are waiting for Friday's inflation data (PCE), which could weaken the dollar and give gold a chance to rebound. Additional influence will come from US GDP data, jobless claims, and geopolitical news. On D1, gold is rebounding from strong support and heading towards resistance at the rising trend line. If economic risks remain high, gold could continue its rally despite conflicting bearish patterns... Resistance levels: 3300, 3310, 3325 Support levels: 3290, 3285, 3265 Gold is forming a false breakdown of support at 3265 as part of a correction and confirming the lower boundary of the upward channel. Consolidation above 3280 will confirm that bulls are holding the market amid high economic risks. Gold may test 3300-3310 and form a correction before continuing its growth towards 3325. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
13
DOGEUSDT → Long squeeze before growth?BINANCE:DOGEUSDT.P is consolidating. A range with clear boundaries has formed. Before a possible breakout, a liquidation (false breakdown) may form On D1, the structure is quite positive. Earlier, the price tested the downward resistance, but there was no reaction (fall) as such. Instead, the price is consolidating within the range of 0.211 (0.205) - 0.23 - 0.253. Bitcoin, like the entire crypto market, is consolidating within fairly clear boundaries. Based on the current situation, it would be logical to wait for one part of the market to be liquidated before the price can move in either direction. Based on the bullish market, there may be a retest of support in the form of a false break... Resistance levels: 0.2308, 0.253 Support levels: 0.213, 0.2116, 0.205 DOGE is consolidating with a focus on the 0.23–0.211 range. Against the backdrop of a bullish trend, a liquidation (long squeeze) relative to the lower boundary of the 0.23–0.205 range is possible before growth continues. A false break of support and liquidity capture would be useful maneuvers before implementation. However, if the market is aggressive enough and resistance at 0.23 is broken with subsequent consolidation above this level, it could trigger premature growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
3
HLI: Four Boxes, One TruthEvery chart tells a story, but sometimes... you need boxes to make sense of the chaos. Here's how the price action of HLI unfolded through four carefully framed boxes, each revealing a new chapter of this market narrative. Box 1: The Fall Begins The first act opens with a classic five-wave impulse decline from the high of $191.99 to $164.05. Textbook. Every wave fits: clean subdivisions, sharp acceleration in wave 3, and a modest wave 4. This structure confirms one thing: this was no correction — it was the beginning of something bigger. I labeled it as Wave A of a possible zig-zag. Or… maybe the start of a complex W? Box 2: The Deceptive Pause Enter Box 2: a tricky A-B-C correction (3 waves up) peaking at $187.93 . Classic fakeout setup — just enough strength to draw in bulls, but not enough to erase the previous drop. The form and proportion suggest it was just a connector, not a trend changer. I tagged this one as Wave B — or the (X) in a WXY structure. A pause, not a pivot. Box 3: The Deep Cut Next, the market tumbles in another five-wave impulse, bottoming at $137.99. This leg confirms the pattern: it mirrors Box 1, creating the signature 5-3-5 of a zig-zag — or the W-Y of a complex correction. Final labeling: If Box 1 was Wave A, this was Wave C — and together they form a Zig-Zag . If Box 1 was Wave W, this became Wave Y, closing a potential WXY correction . A clear bearish tale. Or was it? Box 4: The Mystery Unfolds The current rally — from 137.99 to 182.99 (and counting) — is the real wildcard. Structurally, it’s looking like a clear 5-wave impulse, with sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v all marked and playing out. But wait — if this is just another corrective X wave, it's way too aggressive… isn't it? Here’s the plot twist: If price gets rejected below $191.99, this might be Wave X2 in a massive WXYXZ correction. But if it extends beyond 192 and pushes toward $200, then forget the correction — this rally is likely a new trend, and Wave Z may never arrive. Key Invalidation Levels $191.99: The upper limit for X2 — breach it, and the entire corrective scenario collapses. $161.00: The lower guardrail for the impulse — drop below this, and the impulsive interpretation gets voided. Indicators I Trust (But Still Watch Closely) MACD: Momentum slowing. RSI: Hovering near 50. Neutral, but bears need a breakdown. Closing Thoughts Four boxes. Three corrective legs. Two competing counts. One impending breakout — or breakdown. The price may lie, but the structure doesn’t. So traders — keep your wave counts tight and your invalidation levels tighter. Part of the ongoing #WaveTracker series
NYSE:HLI
by WaveXplorer
Bitcoin is correcting to support. Possible growth to 110.000Bitcoin failed to hold above 110000, but at the same time the price is forming a flat. The support has not been tested yet (the cascade of orders below the level has not been touched) and within the uptrend the area of 106700 plays an important role. Based on bitcoin is inside the flat you can consider trading between its boundaries. Scenario: Within the current movement, the price is likely to form a retest of the 106700 support with the aim of liquidation and accumulation inside the flat. False break of support may attract buyers and in this case bitcoin may test 110000 again.
Long
by AndeWave
8
Amazon UpdatePrice has re-entered the target box. I mentioned last week that price could still try to target the 1.618 @ $220.01. Judging by the ES, I think it is highly likely that is what is going on. We're still currently trading on hidden bearish divergence which doesn't bode well for a sustained move higher. I think it more likely that we make another slight high towards the 1.618 on neg div setting up the larger move lower for minor C. The key support price we need to breach that will point us lower is $196. If we can get below that, the momentum will change to the downside. First, we will likely make OMH though. We manage to breach $196 though, and sub $140 comes into view. This will take time. Don't think that it will happen tomorrow or even next week. Minor C will take weeks if not months to complete.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by TSuth
Waiting for the Golden Reversal!After a clean 5-wave bearish impulse, gold has finally tapped into a high-probability reversal zone! Here's what I'm seeing: 🔹 Break of structure confirmed at 3337.46 🔹 Price extended all the way to the 4.236 – 4.786 fib zone (3244–3228) 🔹 Landed perfectly in the SNR zone (3238–3231) 🔹 Bullish divergence spotted on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) 🔹 Now printing a bullish engulfing right at demand? 👀 📍 This is a textbook reversal setup. 💡 Waiting to Buy: If price shows continued bullish intent or lower timeframe confirmation, I’m looking to enter long from the 3238–3231 area, targeting back to the Fib retracement zones and potentially the structure break at 3337.46. 🛡️ SL just below the 4.786 fib extension for safety. 🔥 Summary: ✅ Structure broken ✅ AO divergence ✅ Engulfing at SNR + fib confluence 🎯 Buy zone activated – now waiting for confirmation! 📌 Let the market come to you. No rush. Just watching for that golden reversal. #XAUUSD #GoldReversal #FibExtension #AOdivergence #ElliottWave #BullishSetup #BuyZone #SmartTrading #ForexAnalysis
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by AwesomeOscDad
Microsoft’s Market Puzzle — The X2 ConundrumAfter a corrective decline from Microsoft’s All-Time High at $467.70, we’ve been tracking a potential complex structure unfolding — and the recent price behavior fits right into a well-formed W–X–Y–X–Z pattern . In this latest move, we may be witnessing the final stages of the second X-wave (X2) — a sharp and extended rally that reached $462.52, pushing marginally above the first X-wave at $456.16. Now before that raises eyebrows — yes, X2 is allowed to extend above X1 . In a complex correction, X-waves are connectors, not trends. They can retrace deeply or even overshoot previous pivot highs — especially in the form of an expanded zigzag or running correction. It’s rare, but perfectly legal in Elliott’s chaotic universe. But this leads to a question: Is this rally impulsive… or is it bait? If the move from $344.79 is truly impulsive, then we’re potentially mid-way through a new bullish leg — with wave 3 ending at $462.78, and a mild wave 4 correction into the $437–$421 zone (0.236–0.382 retracement) expected before another pop higher. This view only holds as long as price remains below the ATH at $467.70 — our immediate invalidation level . However, momentum indicators raise suspicions: RSI is showing a clear bearish divergence — price made a new high, but RSI didn’t confirm it. MACD has started rolling over, with a fading histogram — signaling potential exhaustion in this move. This sets the stage for an alternate, and perhaps more compelling, scenario: The rally from $344.79 to $462.78 is not a new trend — it’s the X2 wave in a still- unfinished W–X–Y–X–Z combo correction . If this is the case, then what comes next is Wave Z — the final leg down to complete the entire corrective structure. And here’s the Elliott rulebook: Wave Z must be a 3-wave structure (likely a zigzag) It often mirrors the size of Wave Y or contracts modestly Projection for Z from the X2 top targets the $393–$351 zone, which represents a 0.618–1.0 retracement of the Wave Y decline This zone becomes the primary downside watch area, should price reject from this level and fail to break above $467.70. Summary: We’re at a critical junction. The rally from $344.79 could either be: An impulsive move needing a wave 4 pullback Or a complex X2 wave — ready to hand over the baton to Wave Z Both scenarios require careful tracking of structure, MACD, RSI, and price action near the retracement zone and the ATH invalidation level.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by WaveXplorer