Elliott Wave
NASDAQ1001. Identified Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Zone: The chart highlights a resistance area between approximately 15,700 and 15,900. This zone has previously acted as a ceiling, preventing upward price movement.
Support Levels: Support is noted around 15,200 and 14,800, serving as floors where buying interest has historically emerged.
2. Trend Analysis:
Current Trend: The NAS100 appears to be in a consolidation phase, oscillating between the identified support and resistance levels.
Potential Breakout: A decisive move above the 15,900 resistance could signal the continuation of the bullish trend, while a drop below 14,800 might indicate a bearish reversal.
3. Technical Indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting that the upward momentum may be weakening.
Moving Averages: The chart shows the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day MA trending above the 200-day MA, indicating a bullish alignment.
4. Chart Patterns:
Ascending Triangle Formation: The price action appears to be forming an ascending triangle, characterized by rising lows converging toward a horizontal resistance line. This pattern typically suggests a potential bullish breakout.
Conclusion: The NAS100 is currently trading within a well-defined range, with key resistance around 15,900 and support near 14,800. The ascending triangle pattern, combined with the bullish moving average alignment, indicates a potential upward breakout. However, the approaching overbought RSI warns of possible short-term consolidation or a minor pullback before any significant move.
Recommendations:
For Long Positions: Consider entering after a confirmed breakout above 15,900, with increased volume as confirmation.
For Short Positions: A break below the 14,800 support could provide an opportunity, especially if accompanied by a bearish crossover of moving averages.
Risk Management: Implement stop-loss orders just below support levels for long positions and above resistance for short positions to mitigate potential losses.
BITCOIN → Retest of key support. What can happen?BINANCE:BTCUSD continues to form a consolidation, this could continue until Trump's inauguration. Price is approaching a key support level and a liquidity zone that harbors both crowd fear and huge potential.
On W1, price is trying to consolidate above the global rising line playing the role of support. Buyers can aggressively defend this area because if this area is lost, price could very easily and quickly descend to 72-75K.
Bitcoin has moved into a local correction due to economic data, but the global fundamental picture is quite positive (thanks to Trump and community interest).
Levels in the 91K - 89K - 86K zone are attracting the attention of major players as these are psychologically important and historically strong buying zones, especially against the backdrop of a strong bullish trend.
The current flat and consolidation boundaries may persist as traders and the community wait for Trump's inauguration and his active actions, and the economic data had only a temporary impact.
Resistance levels: SMA, 99.5K, 102.5K
Support levels: 91.7K, 89.3K, 86.7K
A false break of support can provoke quite a violent reaction. After such a strong fall, I expect a rebound rather than a breakdown. I do not exclude a retest of 89-86K before further growth.
Regards R. Linda!
Triangle break-out with great potential upon special situationTriangle is now being formed as a wave 4. I expect it to break out and finish impulse wave slightly above wave 3 highs. Up to 30% gain here if entered at 0.89$ or so.
This company is now interesting not only because of Elliott Wave applied - it has specific business situation. Parker Vision produces complex radio chips that are patented in early 2000's. Company even employed strong patent firm to protect its IP. Later many companies started to use their technology without being licensed under their patents. Lately, PRKR issued a few infringement claims.
One of them is against QCOM who in their internal emails said that it would really difficult to use PRKR technology without stepping on one of their patents. The hearing of the case is scheduled in the first half of 2025 with compensation requested multiple times higher than PRKR capital.
In case their claim is successful, the company will get over $1B.
BTC SHORT to 70 - 80KThis looks like a flat A, B, C correction for BTC. There should be a good point of exit coming up with a micro wave 2 up to around 99-100k before a bigger wave down. If we can break above 100k and then 103k and close the daily it would invalidate this. This should take days to weeks to play out.
Triangle count for XRP and what it would mean EW wiseIf XRP is going to continue to respect the triangle, we should see another rejection around $2.45. Then a 3 wave move back down to the $2.10 area, though Wave E’s are allowed to be shallow and aren’t required to touch the bottom trend line. If you think Market Makers want to continue to draw out the correction to exhaust the bulls even further, then you likely lean towards this count.
Also, a triangle correction here would give me confirmation that we only have one more push up - AKA the final 5th Wave. You can’t have a triangle as a Wave 2, only Wave 4’s. It would also mean this is the same Wave 4 triangle as 2018-2024 range, just one degree lower/smaller.
This would mean we are about to start the 5th wave of the Super Cycle Wave 5.
If XRP rips from here, then I’ll leave open the possibility that the current correction could be either a Wave 2 or a Wave 4.
GBPCHF Wave Analysis 8 January 2025
- GBPCHF reversed from resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 1.1200
GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the strong multi-month resistance level 1.1360 (which has been reversing the price from September) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone is likely to form the daily Evening Star Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern.
Given the strength of the nearby resistance level 1.1360, GBPCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.1200.
Bitcoin - Why is everyone wrong about the upcoming moveEveryone is turning very bullish again on BTC and altcoins. I really don't think it will be that easy; the whales need liquidity and make money before pushing the price higher. From a technical perspective, there is no confirmation of an uptrend, but let's take a look at the details.
First of all, let's take a look at the huge ascending channel. The price respects both trendlines very precisely. On 17. December, Bitcoin hit the top of the channel and got rejected from it. It would definitely make sense if the price now retests the middle of the channel, which is currently at around 85k.
Second, we still have a completely unfilled and untested FVG (Fair Value GAP) on the daily chart. This GAP is between 85k and 77k. This price action should be tested.
Third, we have a pretty significant head-and-shoulders reversal pattern at the top of the trend. This pattern looks pretty solid, there is a lot of liquidity below it. All stop losses from traders and liquidations on the futures market. If you see multiple swing lows next to each other, you may be pretty sure that the price will go here and sweep the liquidity.
Fourth, from the Elliott Wave perspective, we have finished wave (3) of an impulse wave larger degree. We should make an ABC correction, so I think we are in wave (4). After we finish this correction, we start wave (5). This will bring the price of Bitcoin to an all-time high. I expect Bitcoin to hit around 125k.
Fifth, let's take a look at the RSI indicator. On the daily chart, there is clearly a downtrend. The line makes lower lows and lower highs. Also, we can see a bearish divergence. This is not an uptrend, but a downtrend.
Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Bitcoin is Ready to Fall Below $90,000!!!Reasons!!!As I expected in the last few posts, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) seems to have started a major correction .
Please be with me.
First, let's take a look at the weekly chart analysis that I shared with you on November 12, 2024 , which almost gave you an All-Time High(ATH) in both time and price .
Let's examine the Bitcoin chart on the 4-hour time frame in terms of Classic Technical Analysis . Bitcoin seems to be forming the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders Pattern . So that in terms of the validity of this pattern , the following two points can be pointed out:
1- During the time when the right shoulder reached $104,000, it was 8 days and 4 hours that the right shoulder was not able to reach $104,000 during this period, and this shows the weakness of buyers or the strength of sellers along the path of the right shoulder.
2- Regular Divergence(RD-) between the right and left shoulders between the price and the volume indicator.
In terms of Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin, over the past 18 days , seems to be forming an Expanding Flat(ABC/3-3-5) corrective pattern, with the main wave C ending at $102,725 . ( I mentioned this in the update of yesterday's post ).
If we look at the chart of USDT.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ), as I said in the update of yesterday's post , we should have waited for the increase of USDT.D% (due to the sensitive position it was in). I expect USDT.D% to attack the upper line of the descending channel soon .
I expect Bitcoin to attack the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) and the neckline of the Head and Shoulders Pattern soon, and if it breaks, we should expect Bitcoin to drop to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , Support line s and 100_SMA(Daily) and then Bitcoin can fill the CME Gap($80,670-$77,100) .
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Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame⏰.
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Bitcoin Boom is overWith its high of $108,470 on December 17, Bitcoin hit the 1.00 extension in the red Z almost exactly and has been trading below its all-time high ever since. I am relatively certain that this high is unlikely to be broken for quite some time and that the dollar will remain very strong for the foreseeable future. Other currency pairs such as the euro and the pound also point to this. If you look at the previous corrections in Bitcoin, a run-up to the 61.8 retracement or even the 78.6 retracement is a logical target. Prices between USD 23,670 and USD 41,870 should then be reached before the bulls take over again. However, this is of course only based on past experience and things could turn out very differently. The only certainty is that Bitcoin will first have to correct to the 23.6 retracement at USD 83,277 before further price rises are possible.
ATH Elliotwave idea - The end of the cicleMy Elliott Wave Count and its Implications for the End of this Cycle
This is my bullish scenario where the highs were not breached and the last 5th wave was not truncated. It's important to acknowledge that this 5th wave, the 'Trump pump,' was significantly extended and impulsive compared to wave 1, the beginning of the cycle. Typically, the 5th wave exhibits characteristics similar to the 1st wave. However, in this cycle, the 5th wave more closely resembles the impulsive and extended nature of wave 3.
In this scenario, we can anticipate that this 5th wave, the last major wave, might have been extended, as illustrated in this idea. However, it's crucial to remember that a significant downtrend could ensue if we lose the 85k level. A retracement from that level might necessitate a re-evaluation of the Elliott Wave count.
NLOP breaks out of leading diagonalAnalysis is based on Elliott Waves. Soon NLOP is expected to break out of the leading diagonal (wave 1), and after some correction, continue going higher.
NLOP is REIT company with assets in USA and Europe. Fundamentally, idea is that properties under management are much higher value than the company itself. As last year shown, NLOP manages to sell its properties at attractive prices. This immediately triggers price appreciation. Valuation itself should not be treated in REIT related environment as case is in the company liquidation value rather than revenue/operations improvements.
Crude oil Is Approaching ResistanceCrude oil is coming higher on 4h time frame, out of a wave B bullish triangle that we have been tracking through December. Well, we know that moves out of a triangle are final in a sequence, so we can expect limited upside, and ideally, this will cause the completion of wave E rally of a larger bearish triangle pattern. It's now approaching an important resistance at 74-75, its gap from mid-October, right at the upper side of a triangle. There is a chance for a turn soon.
A triangle appears to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. The triangle pattern contains five overlapping waves that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 and are labeled A-B-C-D-E. It’s a region of horizontal price movement, a consolidation of a prior move, and it is composed of “threes.” That means each of the A-B-C-D-E waves have three subwaves. The triangle pattern is generally categorized as a continuation pattern, meaning that after the pattern completes, it’s assumed that the price will continue in the trend direction it was moving before the pattern appeared. However, triangles also indicate that the final leg is coming before a reversal and that’s why triangles are labeled in wave B, wave X or wave 4.
NATGAS SHORT SETUP Currently NATGAS is facing the Resistance at the 24EMA on the 4H after breaking the Intermediate Trend line that was the previous up trend.
The market on the Long term remains bullish but currently facing Rejection. We will take a short at this level but be cautious as this market can move up any time.
US100 2025 ABC CorrectionWe've reached the bull flag target and exceeded the target.
ABC correction to take place, I would be looking for a 20-30% retracement following the fib levels from the October 2022 lows.
I would first expect a trendline touch followed by a small rally and then a trendline breakdown to reach the C wave target ~17k.
HBAR Wave 4 update - Elliott WaveSo green scenario removed as expected.
Orange triangle in play still - invalidation level seems to be in confluence with the VAL since the end of wave 3.
2 purple ABC scenarios? Both look similar in terms of expectations for the C wave.
Any comments welcome.
Novice EW follower.