Elliott Wave
OP: Once in a Life-Time Chance?#Optimism may have completed its correction, showing a rare opportunity.
If the current low holds, it would mark the major bottom, completing a diagonal 1st wave followed by a WXY correction.
Passing $2.78 confirms targeting the ATH.
Breaking $0.39 invalidates the idea.
NAKAUSDTAn analysis at the height of market fear..
A situation where all markets are experiencing sharp declines due to US tariffs and Middle East tensions..
It seems that around $0.25 is the ideal area for short-term buying for $0.75 targets and the ideal time to start this upward movement is early April..
Just an analysis that may be wrong..
Elliott Wave Analysis on $SOLUSDT – ElliotWave count🟢 Current Wave Structure
The chart shows a complex corrective structure that fits well within the Elliott Wave principle:
We are currently in a larger ABC correction, with the green-labeled wave (C) likely approaching completion.
The most recent move down in green (C) may have marked the end of a broader corrective cycle.
The current movement looks like a short-term ABC correction in red – typical for a corrective bounce after a strong sell-off.
🟥 Short-Term Movement (Red Wave A-B-C)
Within the lower timeframe, we can see a corrective recovery forming a red A-B-C structure:
Wave A (red) has already completed,
Wave B (red) is currently forming (sideways or slightly lower),
Wave C (red) could result in a final push upwards towards the green descending trendline – targeting around 138–142 USDT – unfolding as an internal orange A-B-C.
🟩 Key Trendline (Green)
The green descending trendline has been respected multiple times and acts as strong technical resistance.
⚠️ Scenario: A rejection from this level is highly likely and would mark the end of the current relief rally – completing the larger green wave (B).
🟧 Short Entry Zone
The orange Fibonacci zone around 142 USDT marks an ideal short setup area.
This level is confluence of Fibonacci extensions and previous resistance.
⚪ What’s Next?
After the orange wave C finishes (completing green wave (B)), I expect an impulsive move to the downside – likely unfolding as a classic 1-2-3-4-5 wave within the green wave (C).
Target zones:
First zone: ~108 USDT (highlighted by green/yellow/red Fibonacci extension),
Final bear target: Possible deep wick below due to the high volatility and liquidity in that zone.
✅ Key Support Zone (Green / Yellow / Red)
Around 108 USDT, we find a strong confluence support – labeled as End of Bears.
This zone may act as a potential reversal point, possibly kicking off a new bullish cycle with long-term targets reaching 200+ USDT.
BITCOIN → The price is consolidating, but there is a BUT!BINANCE:BTCUSDT is forming a consolidation after a false breakout of trend resistance. Against the backdrop of the global market crash (stock market, futures, forex) bitcoin looks quite strong, but I wouldn't get excited ahead of time
Bitcoin is trading inside a downtrend and also inside a range (global 81200 - 88800 and local 81200 - 85600). As long as the price is inside the local range and below trend resistance it is worth considering selling. There have been periods in history when the price seemed strong in the moment, but then, bitcoin caught up with the fall of indices...
The fundamental background for bitcoin is unstable:
First of all, the price has hardly reacted in any way to the introduction of tariffs, backlash and economic data. The Fed is not giving a clear signal, the market is in uncertainty. Any info noise ( China, Fed rhetoric, company reports ) can cause shake-ups. But at the same time, the same old problems remain: the crypto community is not getting any support. Bitcoin's dominance is growing against the backdrop of its decline. Altcoins continue to storm the bottom.
Technically , the situation is weak, the price cannot update local highs and consolidate above any strong support. It is possible to retest the trend resistance, or the zone of interest 85590 before the reversal and fall. Or, emphasis on the trigger 81187. A breakdown will provoke an impulse.
Resistance levels: trend, 85585, 88840.
Support levels: 81187, 78170, 73500
Buying in the medium term can be considered either after reaching the main target - 73-66K, or after the exit from the descending channel and price fixation above 88840. Now the emphasis is on a possible fall either from the resistance 85580, or when the support 81180 is broken
Regards R. Linda!
Markets Technical Analysis 6th April 2025Summary:
- Expects Equities (NK225, HSI, SPX, NDX) to bounce on Monday trading session (7th April 2025).
- Big US tech stocks (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, META, GOOG, NFLX) are at support levels.
- Expects commodities (Oil, Copper, Gold, Silver, Cocoa) to be down in the longer term.
I will post this idea as neutral even though it is long for equities in the very short term and short for commodities in the longer term.
BITCOIN SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS PATH TOWARDS 120k !!!According to elliott wave count, If BTC has completed it's macro wave (IV), then we can expect it moving to complete it's macro wave (V).
In this case if recently impulse move is counted as micro wave (i), then we can expect reversal from 81-79K region very soon.
Otherwise, if micro count gets Invalid, then reversal can be expected from up to 76-70k .
Important key level is breakout of 95k which would confirm reverse in trend.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Weekly Outlook | Elliott Wave Analysis
This DXY weekly chart highlights a potential (A)-(B)-(C) corrective structure unfolding after a completed 5-wave impulsive rally. Wave A bottomed out around the 100 level, followed by a retracement in Wave B which tested the 111.893 supply zone. Currently, price is reacting strongly from that level, suggesting a possible move toward completing Wave C.
Current Market Structure:
Wave B faced strong rejection near the 111.893 resistance/supply zone.
Price is now hovering near a short-term support zone (light green) around 102–100, which could serve as a decision point.
Two scenarios are in play:
1. Bullish Rejection from Support: If buyers defend the support, a new bullish leg may begin, retesting 111.893 or even pushing slightly higher.
2. Break Below Support: A decisive breakdown could initiate a deeper decline toward the major demand zone (highlighted in beige) near 90.00–92.50, completing Wave C.
Key Technical Zones:
Resistance (Supply Zone): 111.893
Immediate Support: 100.00–102.00
Major Demand Zone (Wave C Target): 90.00–92.50
Current Price: 102.892
Elliott Wave View:
The ongoing move appears to be part of a Wave C correction, which will be confirmed only if price breaks below the current support. On the flip side, a higher low and bullish continuation could mean the correction ended early, transitioning into a fresh impulse.
Conclusion:
The DXY is at a critical juncture. Traders should monitor price action closely at the 100–102 zone. A bounce could trigger a bullish setup back toward resistance, while a breakdown would likely bring Wave C to completion in the 90–92.50 zone.
Stay tuned and trade with discipline.
Elliott Wave Outlook (Wave C in Progress?)Key Technical Zones:
Demand Zone: 0.9750 – 1.0350 (Support from Wave B low)
Supply Zone: 1.1600 – 1.2000 (Potential Wave C target)
Current Price: 1.0959
Support Levels: 1.0730, 1.0350
Resistance Levels: 1.1250, 1.1600
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact for Wave C as long as the pair holds above 1.0730. Any deeper pullback into the demand zone could still be part of a healthy correction, offering long opportunities on confirmation. Keep an eye on macroeconomic data, especially from the U.S. (FOMC, CPI) and EU (ECB stance), as they may heavily influence EUR/USD sentiment in the coming weeks.
Conclusion:
Watch for bullish continuation setups toward the supply zone, but remain cautious of a mid-term rejection pattern, which could trigger a deeper correction. Trade safely, and always use proper risk management.
Current Scenario:
Price is now trading near 1.0950, suggesting a potential Wave C rally in progress.
If Wave C unfolds as anticipated, EUR/USD could approach the supply zone marked between 1.1600–1.2000, which aligns with previous structural resistance and Fibonacci retracement levels.
However, a false breakout or early rejection from current levels could lead to a sharp retracement, possibly retesting the demand zone before any major upside continuation.
NIFTY short term trend is bullish target- 23900
In 15 minute price bars from EWP in recent uptrend it has completed waves (1),(2),(3) and now wave (4) has completed,
wave (4) is complex W X Y X Z pattern witch is arrived in its wave Z
now price need to go higher to form wave (5) its minimum price target is 23900
XEC Downtrend Update
After the ABC correction shown in my previous analysis, we have a motive wave to the downside.
I´m considering wave 1 to be an extended wave. Therefore, by EW parameters, we would have wave 3 shorter than 1, and wave 5 shorter than 3.
Blue resistance is an probable target for wave 4.
SGDMYR Short: Completed 3-waves correction upThere are a handful of macroeconomic reasons for Singapore dollar to weaken against the Malaysian Ringgit, but I'll point out only the First EW counts here. As you can see, I've drawn the wave down in 5 waves and the wave up in 3 waves. That is the wave A and wave B respectively. And so I will be expecting a 5-wave wave C down. A 1-to-1 measurement will bring this currency pair below 3.0.
Crude OIL CRASH - OPEC & Trump - Recession Catalyst#Recession is here, Markets are bleeding.
Crude #Oil is the kicker.
I shorted TVC:USOIL on Friday.
Hunting on this trade for a while now.
Very #Bearish outlook on #WTI.
MARKETSCOM:OIL Weekly
#FundamentalAnalysis
- #OPEC+ Output Hike (411K bpd)
- #Trump #Tariffs & #TradeWar
I'm looking at a #CrudeOIL #MarketCrash, similar to the #Covid era, when NYMEX:CL1! went in minus on #Nymex #Futures.
TVC:USOIL & my BIG SHORT
#Trading EASYMARKETS:OILUSD via CFDs with #Leverage.
Executed my #Sell Position on #WTI at $64.
* DYOR before, it's not a financial advice, I just share.
#TechnicalAnalysis
- #ElliottWave Impulse Cycle a (white)
- #Correction in Primary ABC (red)
- #LeadingDiagonal in Primary A (red)
- #Descending Triangle in Primary B (red)
Why will BLACKBULL:WTI Crash?
#Bearish Primary C (red) has started.
#Break-out below the Triangle Flat Line.
Important Note:
The #Bearish #Impulse will continue lower.
After the short-lived pull-back, Sellers will dominate.
$63-64 Range is the Entry.
MARKETSCOM:OIL Daily
TVC:USOIL #Short #TradeSignal
- Entry @ $63-64 Range
- SL @ $73
- TP1 @ $40
- TP2 @ $30
- TP3 @ $20
Stay in the green and many pips ahead!
Richard (Wave Jedi)
Has Bitcoin completed its multi-year leading diagonal?When we look at the all-time history index, could it be that we've reached the end of a 15-year journey with this last peak?
If the last peak represents our 5th wave impulse and is part of a larger leading diagonal, we can consider the entire diagonal—from Bitcoin's starting point at zero to the final peak—as the first impulse. After that, a correction labeled as wave 2 should follow. This correction would likely unfold in an ABC structure over the years and, if it retraces to a possible 0.236 Fibonacci level, we could accept the bottom price to be around $26,000.
I can almost hear you asking, "Could it really drop that much?" In a global environment of uncertainty, with stocks taking such a hit, why not? Perhaps this is just the beginning—who knows?
On the weekly chart, our potential swing high price is the last peak at $109,500. The confirmed swing low is at $49,500. If the price closes below $49,500 on a weekly basis, it would indicate a change of character, which would be one of the strongest signals that we could see lower prices. After that, I'm not sure whether we will stop at the 0.382 Fibonacci level of $42,000 or the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $26,000. This expectation is for the long term. The price won't drop to these levels immediately, of course. Currently, we are in the A part of this ABC correction. The B wave upwards may come when the price reaches $49,500, and then we will discuss the $42,000 and $26,000 levels during the C correction. As time goes on, it will be easier to pinpoint the exact levels using micro Elliott wave counts.
NIFTY50.....Be prepaired for high volatility!Hello Traders,
the NIFTY50 has declined to my target area @ 23038, and it's test of this boundary failed! It declined further to 22857 points.
I have visualized the opportunity for a triple correction, counted w-x-y-x2-z!
Probably the index is moving back to a wave 4 of lower degree, which is around 21821.45 area. Another target range could be @21137 for the coming one or two weeks.
A break of the upper boundary of the channel opens the door to lower targets in the coming week.
Note! A triple never ever doesn't morph within a trend channel! Keep that in mind!
Anyway! The level of 23869.60 is the one who needs to be extended in the coming one or two weeks. If not, the index has the possibility to crash to new lows. From my view, I need to see a final "sell-off" in the coming one or two weeks, to clear the market and banish those shaky hands!
Overall to speak, I guess we will see high volatility in the index and fast moving price! A gap down in the time ahead, one massive gap-down, has the chance to clear the market!
So, don't be the last who grape a chair, while music stop's playing!
Handle with care and be patient this day's! Otherwise, you will everything you have!
Have a great week.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
MY Long-term Elliott Wave count expectation for OTHERS dominanceThere is a diagonal structure in the larger picture, forming in a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern.
I believe the C wave of the larger Wave 4 correction is currently unfolding.
The macro C correction is also forming an ending diagonal with a 5-3-5-3-5 structure.
We are currently in the 5th wave of the final 5-wave impulse. Within this 5th wave, there is another 5-wave sub-impulse unfolding. I believe we are now inside the 5th wave of that sub-impulse as well. This wave is expected to complete a final 5-wave structure and drive the price down toward my target level of around 6% dominance. I anticipate this structure to be completed approximately by May 20. After that, the macro 5th wave should begin, which is likely to signal a strong upward movement.
Dow Jones Trend Analysis (Elliott Wave + AO + Volume)📊 Dow Jones Intermediate Trend Analysis (Elliott Wave + AO + Volume)
🌀 Elliott Wave Interpretation
The chart reflects a clear Elliott Wave count from the post-COVID low:
Wave I and Wave II are well-established.
Wave III is now completed, accompanied by a peak in AO — which aligns with classical Elliott theory where AO typically peaks during the 3rd wave, showing strong momentum.
Wave IV is currently unfolding.
📉 Wave IV Characteristics (Ongoing Phase)
Wave IV is expected to be complex — commonly forming:
Triangles (contracting or expanding),
Flats,
Double/triple threes.
It is likely to consume time and generate sideways or choppy price action.
Volumes, interestingly, are peaking again, which often occurs toward the end of Wave IV due to emotional volatility and retail panic activity.
🔮 Two Probable Scenarios for Wave IV Completion:
Scenario 1 (Shallow Correction):
Target Zone: ~37,400
This zone coincides with the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels from Wave III.
Would reflect a simple flat or sharp zigzag structure.
Scenario 2 (Deeper Correction):
Target Zone: ~34,100
Corresponds to the lower support band with possible spike to 32,988 (FINAL FIB Support).
May occur if external macroeconomic or geopolitical triggers cause extended selling.
📈 Post Wave IV – Projection for Wave V
Once Wave IV completes:
Wave V is expected to resume the larger bullish cycle.
Price target: New all-time highs, possibly towards the upper blue resistance trendline (~46,000+).
Watch for bullish confirmation with AO flipping and price breaking above Wave IV consolidation highs. before completing 4th wave it always create complex patterns. we need to watch the patterns and it is getting completing before move to 5th wave.
🔍 AO (Awesome Oscillator) Insights
AO peak confirms Wave III completion.
Negative divergence between AO and price also supports Wave V capping out, indicating exhaustion of upward momentum.
AO is now retracing — likely bottoming during the end of Wave IV.
🔊 Volume Behavior
Volume peaked at the end of Wave III — a common occurrence.
Now rising again near Wave IV completion – this suggests:
Panic selling,
Possible final shakeout before market stabilizes for Wave V.
Monitor for volume drop-off during Wave V's beginning – a classic signature of reduced fear and return of trend stability.
🔒 Critical Support & Resistance Levels
Level Description
37,400 Scenario 1 target / shallow correction
34,100 Scenario 2 deeper correction target
32,988 Final strong support (Fib extension)
46,000+ Potential Wave V high / upper trendline
📌 Conclusion
The intermediate trend is corrective, within a larger bullish framework.
Wave IV is currently playing out and might end soon.
Watch key support zones (37,400 and 34,100) for potential reversal setups.
Once confirmed, Wave V rally could offer significant upside opportunities.
Remain cautious during this volatile consolidation and validate reversal signs before positioning.
📜 Disclaimer
⚠️ This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is based on technical chart interpretation (Elliott Wave Theory, volume, AO) and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involves significant risk, including the risk of losing your capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Gold XAU/USD Technical AnalysisAfter completing a clear 5-wave impulsive structure to the upside, Gold (XAUUSD) is now showing signs of a potential corrective ABC pattern.
🔹 Key Observations:
Wave (5) ended at 3167.90, marking the recent high.
Price broke below the lower boundary of the rising channel.
A potential ABC correction is unfolding — we’re currently tracking the development of wave (C).
The area of wave (4) along with the ascending trendline around 3030 could act as a last line of defense for bulls.
If price holds above 3000, a bullish reversal remains possible.
However, a confirmed break below 3000 would signal deeper correction toward 2926 or even 2834.
🔍 Scenarios to Watch:
A bounce from current levels or from the 3000 zone after wave (C) completes → bullish continuation.
Failure to hold the support → deeper corrective move.
📌 Keep an eye on price action around the key trendline and psychological level of 3000. Patience and
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Chart Review – April 6, 2025The gold market is currently undergoing a corrective phase after completing a clear Elliott Wave 5-wave impulse structure to the upside, as marked on the chart.
🟦 Wave Count Overview:
The chart shows a completed 5-wave impulse structure labeled (1) to (5).
The sub-waves within Wave (5) are also clearly detailed: (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), and (v).
This suggests that the bullish cycle has likely peaked near the $3,080–$3,100 range.
🔽 Expected Correction:
A sharp downward move has already started after Wave (v), implying a potential ABC corrective pattern is underway.
The arrow indicates a projected move towards the $2,960 support zone, marked by the first purple rectangle. This zone previously acted as resistance and now could serve as a demand area.
🟪 Key Support Zones:
$2,950–$2,970: Minor support based on the consolidation from mid-March.
$2,850–$2,870: Stronger support level, also aligned with lower channel support and previous Wave (4).
📉 Trend Analysis:
The price is still within a long-term rising channel.
A breakdown below the $2,950 zone could bring gold toward the $2,850 zone, where the structure suggests more significant support.
🔍 Conclusion:
Gold appears to be entering a corrective phase after an extended bullish run. Traders should monitor how price reacts around the $2,950–$2,850 levels. A bounce from those zones could provide long opportunities, while a breakdown would confirm a deeper retracement.
#gold #xauusd