Bitcoin Elliott Waves Analysis: Short opportunityIn this lengthy video, I discussed the details of labelling and counting of waves for Bitcoin from daily to the 5 mins timeframes. I drilled down to the minuette waves (in orange) on the 5 mins timeframe. Take note that I made a mistake in the actual config of one of the orange waves (setting it as minute instead of minuette). The mistake happened on the 9:15 where I changed the color of the corrective wave A-B-C but did not change the degree.
In this video, I also discussed the alternate counts (in blue) in details.
But while both the primary and alternate counts are both short bias, the target entries (and thus risks) are different. if you are an aggressive trader, and want to trade on the alternate count, your stop will be set above the blue line where the alternate count is invalidated. If you are trading on my primary count, you will want to see reversal pattern (e.g. candlestick reversal) or see rejection at the red line.
In any case, good luck in your trading and remember to keep your risk tight!
Elliott Wave
MSTR: Mid-term and Macro Price Structure As price holds below $344, odds favor a continuation lower to retest February lows, with later potential bounce and one more push to macro-support levels: 160/150-120 (with a potential extension to 105)
(see. recent idea on BTC price structure)
If BTC and broad market indexes show signs of stabilization and short-term strength over the coming weeks with MSTR price rising above 344, the odds are shifting to a more pronounce bounce to 400-460 resistance levels.
Weekly chart:
From a macro perspective:
as long as price remains below the 460 level, I consider the bullish trend since 2008 lows to have topped in November 2024, with current price action unfolding as part of a larger corrective Wave c.4 structure. Otherwise, If price reclaims ATH the door opens for an extension to 780-1280 resistance levels.
Monthly chart
Recent idea on BTC:
Bitcoin could go lowerHi traders,
The price action of Bitcoin did exactly what I've said in my outlook last week. After a small pullback into the Daily FVG, it rejected and continued the downmove.
Now we could see more downside for this pair to finish (blue) wave c.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bearish again to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
Bigger correction down for goldHi traders,
XAUUSD did exactly what I've said in my outlook last week. I said we could see (a little) more upside because this pair was already in (grey) wave 5. So after wave 5 was finished, it started a bigger correction down.
Next week we could see more consolidation for this pair.
But let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for more development of the bigger correction down.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
More down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Could an outlook be more accurate then this? Last week I said that SPX500USD could see more downside. I also annotated the liquidity on the chart where we could see a reaction.
And what did price? It took the liquidity, made a correction up (orange wave 2) and dropped.
Did I know the news before? No of course not. This is the power of Wave analysis.
If you've followed my outlook, you could have made much profit.
Now for next week we could see a small correction up and more downside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
Bigger correction down for EU is comingHi traders,
I do it week after week. My outlook of EU last week was right again. After a small correction into the 4H FVG, price shot up into the Weekly FVG. I hope you've made some money of my prediction.
From the Weekly FVG it rejected and made another correction.
So next week we could see EU go up one more time (orange wave 5) and then drop for a bigger correction (red wave 4). Or price is already in the bigger correction and price drops more for wave A of (red) wave 4.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for more development. Enjoy your profit of last week. :)
If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Wave analysis, then make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
AUDCAD Next StepsThe upside correction I pointed out in my previous analysis finished (a little earlier than I expected), and there was a strong downside movement after Trump´s tariffs announcement.
Next steps for price are:
1) 100% extension at 0.83916.
2) Strong supply zone (gray area) between 0.80 and 0.83.
Until price reaches these levels, upside corrections are shorting opportunities.
NVDA’s Final Act: A Breakout Waiting to HappenNVDA appears to be nearing the completion of its corrective phase, setting the stage for a potential move to new highs. The current pattern resembles a falling wedge, indicative of an ending diagonal formation, which often signals a reversal and the start of an upward trend.
The structure of the corrective channel, along with the termination of the diagonal pattern, suggests a high likelihood of a running flat formation. Buyers are likely to intensify demand pressure as the price approaches the lower boundary of the trendline. A trend reversal may occur if there is a decisive breakout above the Wave 4 level of the ending diagonal.
Buying opportunity with minimal stop is possible after the reversal from lower side of the channel. Targets can be 112 - 120 - 132 - 140.
I'll be sharing more details shortly.
SOLUSDT - Wave 5 Completion into resistance zoneThis 1-hour chart of SOLUSDT (Solana Perpetual Contract) showcases a potential 5-wave Elliott impulse structure forming within a larger resistance zone.
- After breaking down from the highlighted resistance range (roughly $122–$129), SOL is currently retracing upward in what appears to be an impulsive 5-wave correction.
- Waves (1) through (4) seem to be in place, with Wave (5) projected to complete just below or near the resistance zone again.
- A potential bearish reversal is anticipated upon the completion of Wave (5), likely targeting support around the $120–$121 level.
Traders should monitor the price reaction near the $126–$128 region for rejection signals. A failure to break and hold above resistance could validate the short scenario, while a clean breakout could invalidate the bearish outlook and signal continuation.
Tight stop-loss management and confirmation through volume or momentum indicators are recommended before entering a trade.
Cocoa Short: Completed wave 2 (or B) rallyI've previously publish an idea for Cocoa long because of ending diagonal. But it should be clear to an EWer that the down move was a 5-wave structure and thus the long idea was a wave 2 or B idea. Now that we have completed 3-waves up for Cocoa, I think it's time that Cocoa resumes it's down move again. The conservative target is set at the previous support, but I certainly expect it to move way below that target.
Rollercoaster Continues For SPYMy overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I am estimating this symbol to be in wave position SuperCycle 2, Cycle A, Primary 1, Intermediate 3 (pink), Minor 3 (yellow), Minute 3 or 4 (green). I originally had this symbol nearly complete with Primary wave 1, but the continued declines received significant wave 3 of 3 signals (pink lines in bottom chart band). It is still unclear if we are in my theoretical larger decline or if we are in a simple corrective wave. It will take at least another two months to likely achieve the answer.
Theory 1 is my hypothesis where we are about to finish Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 1 in a multi-year market correction. This would see SPY bottom around 486 within two weeks and briefly head up toward 535 before continuing significant downward movement. Currently Intermediate wave 1 lasted 111 trading hours. Intermediate wave 3 is somewhat on pace to finish in the same amount of time around 17 April. Extensions based on Minor wave 1's movement could put Minor wave 3's bottom around 499.
Theory 2 is that Intermediate waves 1, 2 and 3 (pink) are actually waves A, B, and C (white) in a short-term corrective wave. This would mean this symbol returns to all-time highs around the fall of 2025.
Theory 3 places the stock in the third wave about to finish a wave A down over the next two months. Wave B up would last a few months before wave C takes the market to a bottom sometime around the end of 2025.
All three theories will observe the same movement over the next few weeks with a low soon and then a bounce up. Theory 2 becomes the likely winner if SPY breaks above 576.33 within the next 3 months. Theories 1 and 3 will trade the same for quite some time.
I will reevaluate this ETF once Minor wave 3 finishes. It should aid in providing a better bottom for Intermediate wave 3 in the next two weeks.
More Downside For AMZN Before CrossroadsMy overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I am estimating this symbol to be in wave position SuperCycle 2, Cycle A, Primary 1, Intermediate 3 (pink), Minor 3 (yellow), Minute 5(green). I originally had this symbol nearly complete with Primary wave 1, but the continued declines received significant wave 3 of 3 of 3 signals (pink lines in bottom chart band). It is still unclear if we are in my theoretical larger decline or if we are in a simple corrective wave. It will take at least another two months to likely achieve the answer.
Theory 1 is my hypothesis where we are about to finish Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 1 in a multi-year market correction. This would see AMZN bottom around 148-156 within two weeks and briefly head up toward 180 before continuing significant downward movement. Currently Intermediate wave 1 lasted 201 trading hours. Based on the breakneck pace of Intermediate wave 3, it may finish well before the 201st hour on 5 May. Extensions based on Minor wave 1's movement could put Minor wave 3's bottom around 162.59.
Theory 2 is that Intermediate waves 1, 2 and 3 (pink) are actually waves A, B, and C (white) in a short-term corrective wave. This would mean this symbol returns to all-time highs around the fall of 2025.
Theory 3 places the stock in the third wave about to finish a wave A down. Wave B up would last a few months before wave C takes the market to a bottom sometime around the end of 2025.
All three theories will observe the same movement over the next few weeks with a low soon and then a bounce up. Theory 2 becomes the likely winner if AMZN breaks above 206.21 within the next 2 months. Theories 1 and 3 will trade the same for quite some time.
I will reevaluate this stock once Minor wave 3 finishes. It should aid in providing a better bottom for Intermediate wave 3 in the next week or two.
S&P 500 to tank to 5,100 pointsPEPPERSTONE:US500
The S&P 500 broke below critical support after Trump announce massive tariffs on everyone, worst than expected. Volume is increasing to the downside, and it looks like the next wave down has already started.
Wave C is supposed to be equal or larger than wave A, and reach the next critical support, which will lead us to 5,100 points in the next couple of weeks.
I heard that net tariffs on China are 54%, does than means that iPhones are going to rise in price 54%?
Maybe it will be reconsidered later, and the market will bounce in the future, but not likely in the short term.
Good luck to you
SOLUSDT | Elliott Wave Projection – Next big Move Incoming 50%+BINANCE:SOLUSDT
The chart is probably currently developing a five-wave impulsive structure (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5), suggesting a potential bullish movement towards the 174-175 USD resistance zone before a larger correction unfolds.
📈 Bullish Setup:
- A corrective A-B-C structure seems complete, with a potential impulsive wave (1)-(5) forming.
- Price is reacting at a strong demand zone, initiating Wave (1) upwards.
- Possible target for Wave (5) lies near **174-175 USD**.
📉 Bearish Continuation Afterwards
- After reaching the projected high, expect a sharp rejection and reversal.
- The final bearish target lies within the "End of Bear" zone (~108-109 USD).
---
### 🔹 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ First Bullish Target: ~174-175 USD
⚠️ Critical Support Zone: 108-109 USD
---
### 📌 **Trading Plan:**
1️⃣ Long Opportunity: If price respects the current support, target Wave (3)-(5) completion near 174 USD.
2️⃣ Short Confirmation: If price rejects at resistance, a larger bearish wave is expected.
3️⃣ Final Bear Target: 108-109 USD zone for possible long-term support.
🚨 Risk Management:
- Stop-loss below 111 USD for longs.
- Wait for confirmation before shorting after rejection.
💬 What do you think? Will SOL hit 175 USD before the final drop? Comment below!
Nasdaq Long: Ending DiagonalHi, I made an update 3 hours ago regarding reducing short position and staying neutral because of wave 4. However, it seems like wave 5 of 3 extended and is now showing me an ending diagonal. This changes the assessment from neutral to long as ending diagonal are usually swift and sharp move reversals.
Take note that the last wave of the ending diagonal might itself be an ending diagonal. So my suggestion is to scale in the long and give a slightly wider stop below the lower trendline.
Good luck!
QQQ: Tariff ReactionNASDAQ:QQQ As China strikes back with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting April 10, the global trade landscape could see some serious turbulence. This follows Trump's tariff moves, and the market's already feeling it: QQQ’s daily chart shows capitulation volume on the table, suggesting a potential bounce— IF tariffs ease.
But until these trade tensions subside, it's likely to be a rocky ride. Tariffs push prices up, inflation lingers, and the Fed finds itself boxed in. The outcome? A market crash, recession, and stagflation—yet, there's still hope for a bounce, depending on how these factors play out.
Manage the levels with us at ChartsCoach.
Two ideas.With the recent price fall, it gives us two Elliott waves ideas.
An ending diagonal, which should take the price down to the $4800/ $4500 level, in a Wave 4. Then a muted Wave 5, which would complete the big wave pattern.
Or this drop is a C wave in an expanding flat pattern. This is a dramatic pattern, which should take the price down to the $3650- $3227 range, and very quickly, before the bull market continues.
NKE: Macro structure [Monthly time frame]Price reached the top of the macro support: 56-27.
The correction from Nov'21 top has a picture perfect three-wave structure that has reached area of an ideal extension to finish itself (60-44 support).
Although, within the context of todays market uncertainty, recovery from this support zone, might still be a larger bounce before one more leg-down deeper into macro support
Best of trading and investing decision and thank you for you attention!
UNH: Corrective wave coming to an endAfter the steep selloff for UNH, it has seen a significant bounce to the previous resistance level - this was aided by the fact that UNH because a popular tarriff counter trade, with money pouring in to what has been considered a safe haven in times of trade war turbulence. There space to run some more but its likely that UNH will run out of steam soon and retest support levels at ~480 and ~450.