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Elliott Wave

5th waveThis is all from Claude AI: The Rule of Alternation states that if one impulse wave in a five-wave sequence is extended (significantly longer than the others), the other two impulse waves will typically not be extended. This means: If wave 2-3 is 1.272 times the size of wave 0-1, this means that the distance from point 2 to point 3 is 127.2% of the distance from point 0 to point 1. In this context, this relationship could indicate: Wave 3 is likely extending (which is common, as wave 3 is often the longest impulse wave) The move has good momentum, as the 1.272 extension suggests strength in the trend direction This Fibonacci relationship helps confirm that you're correctly identifying the wave structure In Elliott Wave Theory, measuring the height of wave 0-1, multiplying it by 1.618 (the Golden Ratio), and projecting this distance from the bottom of wave 4 is a standard method for establishing a wave 5 target.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ThousandDollarBitcoin
2
End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later. On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period. Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5). Other observations supporting this wave count: - Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3) - Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4) - Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1) While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last. Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well. Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction: 1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual. 2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak. The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24. CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st. So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday. If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ap769
3
BITCOIN Final update !!! We're about to BOOM!!!According to bigger picture, we're still in bull market, 5th of macro and ending 4th of micro elliott wave. Good news is, that we're about to get back into bullish mega green candles soon!! BTC's major CME gap has been filled and this was also the region where FVG is also available and also corrective pattern (double three) Y ends in this region in combining with expanded flat's C. we may most probably by will of GOD almighty will see green days in coming weeks. Targets of wave 5 are up to 120-130K region.
Long
by CryptoBlinders
Miota ($IOTA)Weekly TF Elliott Wave Crypto Analysis FIB TCAnalysis of the IOTA/USDT Weekly Chart Using Elliott Wave Principle Overview & Key Elements The chart represents the IOTA/USD pair on a weekly timeframe with Elliott Wave structures, Fibonacci retracements, and channel trends. Key observations: • completed five-swing downtrend. • corrective wave (ABC) retracement following the previous bear market. • potential macro bottom around $0.06-$0.07, indicating capitulation. • price has bounced off key Fibonacci levels (0.618, 0.786). • Fibonacci extension targets project potential upside targets at $2.74, $6.61, and $7.50. • Bearish parallel channel: The price recently broke out of the descending structure. • Resistance zones: Around $0.60, $0.85, and $2.75 before reaching the higher targets. • RSI Indicator: previously in oversold territory, now signaling a potential macro reversal. • The momentum is turning bullish, aligning with the forecasted Wave 3 impulse move. What Does This Mean for Price Action? Bullish Reversal Confirmed: The price action suggests a completed bear market correction and the beginning of a new impulsive bullish wave (likely Wave 3). A break above $0.57 and $1.00 would strongly confirm this bullish scenario. Potential Targets for 2025-2026: • $1.00 - $1.50 → Initial major resistance zone. • $2.74 - $3.40 → Key Fibonacci extension level, historically significant. • $6.61 - $7.50 → Maximum projected target based on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. Risk Factors: If IOTA fails to hold above $0.12 - $0.15, further downside towards $0.06 could occur before resuming upward. A break below $0.06 would invalidate this bullish setup. Conclusion: Highly bullish setup for IOTA with a strong Elliott Wave structure. Long-term accumulation levels: $0.12 - $0.20. Target zones for the next bull run: $2.30 - $7.50. A parabolic breakout is likely in 2025
BINANCE:IOTAUSDLong
by Anakyn
GOLD → False breakdown and pullback before the fallFX:XAUUSD is updating lows within the framework of the changed local trend. The price is testing the liquidity zone of 2852. Possible rebound before further decline Gold traded near two-week lows below $2,900 in Asian markets on Friday, breaking an eight-week run of gains. The metal is being pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar amid Trump's new tariff threats and the U.S. economy. Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods from March 4 and an additional 10% on Chinese imports. Weak US GDP data (2.3% in Q4) and rising jobless claims also support the dollar. Traders are waiting for the PCE core price index data to gauge the Fed rate outlook and the impact on gold Resistance levels: 2869, 2877, 2885 Support levels: 2852, 2834 A false break of 2852 could trigger a pullback to the imbalance zone (2869-2877) or to the liquidity zone (2885) before a further decline. Fundamental and technical background is weak, gold may try to renew the low. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
11
USDJPY → A rebound following a rising dollarFX:USDJPY is growing following the dollar. A local reversal is being formed due to US politics and economy The price stops in the zone of 149.4 - 148.6 after a strong fall. Long-term consolidation is forming a reversal setup, the situation is also supported by the reversal and strengthening of the dollar. Against this background, the Japanese yen is losing positions. The focus is on the resistance 150.3, if the bulls can keep the defense above this zone, then in the short to medium term the price may strengthen to the trend resistance. Resistance levels 150.3, 150.95 Support levels: 149.4, 149.15 At the moment we have a downtrend and the potential for counter-trend correction. Everything depends on the dollar and the upcoming news. If the outcome is positive for us, the price may reach 152.3 Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
6
Bitcoin Threat - Last chance is now! Or crash to 40k! (-63%)Bitcoin crashed by 12% in the past few days to 86,800, exactly to the last available support of the whole bull market! This is the last support; otherwise, the bull cycle is over, and we will have a tremendous crash to 40K in 2025/2026. So why is this the last support? First, we need to look at the price action because bitcoin has been going sideways since November. We can clearly see an expanding triangle on the daily timeframe. Expanding triangles are very uncomfortable patterns for traders, as the whales take liquidity on both sides (buyers and sellers). And this is exactly what happened recently: Bitcoin crashed to 86.800 below the previous swing low and took all stop-loss orders from traders while remaining in the expanding triangle continuation pattern. Bitcoin really cannot afford another crash; otherwise, the bears will break the expanding triangle, and the bull market will end. Bitcoin must go up right now! I am bullish until the end, and I still see that Bitcoin is in an uptrend. But if the price falls below 86,800, expect 40k later in 2025/2026, so this is the last chance! What is also bullish? The price is still above the main green trendline. We want to see this trendline hold until the end of the bull market. From the Elliott Wave perspective, the price is starting last wave (5) to finish an impulse wave of higher degree. 125k is a significant resistance because of the 0.618 FIB extension. So, the threat is big for Bitcoin - 125k or 40k? Let me know in the comment section! (write 125k or 40k). Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Long
by Xanrox
150