EUR/USD - High Probability Trade SetupLooking at this chart price is appearing Bearish but I have other beliefs. As you can see on a Monthly TF you can notice a clear Elliots Wave 1-5 Pattern Followed by this current breakout.
Typically Liquidity will sit higher and will remain untouched after breakout as shows in this graph, I believe we have seen a large swing point being at a Phycological Level and now on smaller time frames we are seeing Bullish movements.
To confirm this Theory on the Daily we have noticed the previous Bullish movment took out Swing High Liquidity and is extremely Oversold. Price will be falling but to where..? We have creating a Change Of Character and unless this changes im now looking for Buy positions. We are creating Higher Highs in the 4H and breaking previous structure points.
On the Chart I have market out key levels being OTE zones, Discount areas and Liquidity all being lower than the current price suggesting this pullback period will inverse this imbalance before pushing us into Higher Highs once again
Will be adjusting our Entry Models as price action moves
Good Luck to all Traders who follow along
Elliott Wave
AMD Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst Cyclic AnalysisLet’s revisit the key points from my last update on AMD, published on November 27th:
We are currently correcting the bullish move from October 2022 to March 2024.
Wave A of the second zigzag (labeled 'y') is nearing completion.
The October 2023 trough aligns with an 80-week (80W) cycle trough.
The first 20-week (20W) cycle within this 40W cycle was anticipated around December 18th.
A rally is expected to follow before entering the extreme bearish phase.
The 80W cycle trough is projected for early April 2025.
Although the 20W cycle trough took slightly longer to form than expected, the overall analysis remains intact. We are currently progressing through wave B of y of (II), which I believe could push prices as high as 144. The 80W cycle trough is now projected for early May 2025.
RUNE/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Bullish Wave 3 Elliott Wave Analysis: Bullish Wave 3 Confirmation
The updated chart suggests that Wave 2 of the Elliott Wave cycle is nearing its completion, and we are positioned for the beginning of Wave 3, the most impulsive wave.
Wave 2 Levels and Structure
Price Levels:
The correction of Wave 2 has retraced briefly but is finding support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $3.01.
The 78.6% retracement level at $1.40 remains a critical invalidation level for this wave count.
Volume:
A declining volume during the correction supports the idea of a consolidation phase, typical before the next impulsive wave.
Support Zone:
Primary support levels are:
$3.01 (50% retracement): Key psychological and Fibonacci support.
$2.20 (61.8% retracement): Structural support level.
$1.40 (78.6% retracement): Ultimate invalidation for this bullish count.
Wave 3 Projection
Using Fibonacci extensions of Wave 1 for projecting Wave 3:
1.618 Extension (Primary Target): $12.88 – Typical target for Wave 3.
2.0 Extension (Extended Target): $15.40 – Strong wave momentum scenario.
2.618 Extension (Highly Optimistic): $30.17 – Maximum potential target for a parabolic move.
Momentum Indicators
MACD:
The MACD on higher timeframes (weekly) is attempting to flatten, signaling that bearish momentum is decreasing.
A bullish crossover will confirm Wave 3 initiation.
RSI:
The RSI is currently stabilizing near 40-50, a typical zone where corrections end and new impulses start.
Watch for RSI to cross above 50 as a confirmation of strengthening bullish momentum.
Trade Strategy
Entry Strategy:
Accumulate positions near $2.20-$3.01 (61.8%-50% retracement levels).
Confirmation entry on a breakout above $3.50, which aligns with Wave 1's high.
Stop-Loss:
Conservative: Below $2.00 (below 61.8% retracement for minimal risk).
Aggressive: Below $1.40 (78.6% retracement, Wave 2 invalidation).
Targets:
Take Profit 1: $12.88 (1.618 extension).
Take Profit 2: $15.40 (2.0 extension).
Take Profit 3: $30.17 (2.618 extension).
Risk-to-Reward:
With an entry near $2.50 and a target of $12.88, the trade offers a R:R ratio of ~4:1.
Confirmation Signals
Break of the $3.50 resistance will strongly confirm Wave 3 initiation.
Increasing volume and MACD bullish crossover are essential for validating the impulsive move.
RSI moving above 50 will confirm upward momentum.
Conclusion
The updated price levels and Fibonacci projections align well with the start of Wave 3. The $2.20-$3.01 range presents an excellent accumulation zone, while the first major resistance at $3.50 must break to confirm the bullish wave count. Maintain tight risk management, and monitor volume and momentum indicators for entry confirmation.
S&P 500 index Wave Analysis 22 January 2025
- S&P 500 index broke resistance levels 6000.00 and 6060.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6110.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the resistance levels 6000.00 (top of the previous minor correction) and 6060.00 (top of the previous wave B from December).
The breakout of these resistance levels accelerated the active intermediate impulse sequence (3) from the start of January.
Given the strong multi-month uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6110.00, top of the previous impulse wave (1).
NIFTY50.....Mind the gap!Hello Traders,
the NIFTY50 has declined to 22976.85 on Monday 20th!
It formed a "Hammer-candle" on January 21th! From a technical perspective, this low wasn't lower than the one on Januar 20th! So handle with patient.
A trade is thinkable, but it is not my favorite, 'cause we are clear in a down trend.
So I would feel better to rise above the 23426 level to make one! It would best fit on an hourly time frame at minimum. Another opportunity is a break of the 23169.55, the high of the "Hammer-candle"! But if so, act carefully!
While pressure has to extend dropping below 22976, I would favor my target range @221xx range.
So, that's it for a quick note today!
Stay tuned and always "mind the gap"!
Have a great time.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
ALTcoins Have Still Space For More GainsHello Crypto traders!
Crypto market remains nicely bullish as expected and if we take a look at OTHERS Crypto market cap chart, which excludes top 10 cryptocurrencies, it's looking for a bullish break into a 5th wave out of wave (4) bullish triangle pattern that can send the price into all-time highs and 500B area. Bullish confirmation is above upper triangle line and 400B area.
So, with current risk-on sentiment and while stocks have space for more upside, still watch out for more gains in the Crypto market once current consolidation fully unfolds, especially if we consider USDollar weakness.
Gold's EW Structure Points to Final Wave V Target at 2757The current Elliott Wave pattern analysis remains valid as long as price stays below $2,757
Daily closes above $2,757 would invalidate the current wave count
Traders should exercise caution and consider adjusting positions if price approaches this critical level
This invalidation level serves as a key risk management point for positions based on this analysis
This creates a clear strategic boundary for:
Risk management
Position sizing
Strategy validation
Stop-loss placement
Trading Tip: Using daily closes rather than intraday spikes provides more reliable signals and helps avoid false invalidation due to market noise.
Invalidation Level: Elliott Wave Pattern Becomes Invalid Above $2,757
VELODROME FINANCE. 0.34 USDT BY END OF MARCH 2025 GOD WILLING.HOW IS ALL THIS POSSIBLE YOU SAY? REMEMBER TWO WORDS " KRAKEN" AND " SONEIUM"
From the technical perspective, **Velodrome Finance (VELO)** appears to be completing a classic corrective phase following its previous strong rally. Multiple indicators suggest that selling pressure may be subsiding, setting the stage for a potential bullish reversal. Below are the key observations:
1. **Elliott Wave Structure**
- The chart labeling points to a clear five-wave advance (1 through 5), followed by an A-B-C corrective pattern. Prices now appear to be completing the final leg of this correction.
- Often, once a final C wave completes, the market transitions into a new bullish impulse.
2. **Hidden Bullish Divergences**
- On both the **Williams R%** and **Stoch RSI** panels, hidden bullish divergences have formed as price made lower lows while the indicators made higher lows.
- Such hidden divergences indicate that selling momentum is weakening and may foreshadow an upswing in price.
3. **Decreasing Net Outflows from OKX EXCHANGE**
- The chart’s “Net Money Flow” metric for OKX shows that net outflows have tapered off after reaching peak selling levels.
- A reduction in outflows can signal that strong selling activity is slowing down, possibly leaving room for a price recovery if buyers re-enter the market.
4. **Support Zones Holding**
- Key horizontal supports around the current price region (labeled as areas of “Hidden Bull” in the chart) have consistently held price action.
- Each time the market has tested these support levels, buyers have managed to keep the price from collapsing further.
5. **Upside Potential**
- If the corrective wave is indeed reaching completion, a sustained move above the nearest resistance levels (around the 0.12 – 0.15 USDT range) could spark a stronger bullish push.
- In a highly optimistic scenario, momentum buyers returning to Velodrome might drive price back toward prior swing highs in the 0.20 – 0.30 USDT zone.
**Bottom Line**
While market conditions are always subject to change, these signals—hidden bullish divergences, tapering net outflows, and firm support—point to a potentially favorable shift in momentum for Velodrome. A breakout above immediate resistance could solidify this bullish thesis and kick-start a meaningful rally in the weeks ahead.
USDJPY → Japan's central bank is about to raise ratesFX:USDJPY cannot continue its uptrend yet. Rumors about possible actions from the central bank of Japan will appear. The dollar in the meantime continues to rise....
158.46 is a rather strong resistance formed by the bears, who continue to put pressure on the market. This week, we expect active actions from the Central Bank of Japan, namely - raising interest rates. In general, this phenomenon is quite rare, but it can support the currency pair very well. If the Japanese decide to take such actions, the currency pair may continue the correction from 0.5 - 0.7 fibo. Priority targets in this case may be the zones of interest at 153.24, 151.94.
Resistance levels: 156.56, 157.22
Support levels: 155.1
Price fixing below 0.5 Fibo or below 155.95 may provoke aggressive selling. The decision on rates in Japan will take place on Friday, until then the price may be in consolidation....
Regards R. Linda!
BTC Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst Cyclic AnalysisIn our previous update on December 25th, we projected BTC to push higher to complete wave V, followed by a bearish phase in March and April, with 121,500 identified as a potential peak target.
The 20W cycle extended a bit longer than anticipated, forming on January 13th. Despite this, everything remains on track, and we are now in wave (b) of V, with my updated peak target at 118,500.
Looking ahead, I expect the 40W cycle to form in May 2025. Until mid-March, the bullish trend should continue, after which bearishness is likely to set in, corresponding to the 40W cycle trough (wave B).
RAYSOLRaysol, one of the best project seen in last 2-3 months, thinking that i missed to open position for this project, according to o the Elliot Impulse Wave, i will hope to have a correction and catch it at the marked price for spot hold.
watching how has performed all this time, i am pretty sure this project will be very strong in the upcoming months.
How long #VTHO will make in this bull cycle??
#VTHO had made a great move yesterday ... According to elliott wave micro count, it has completed it's 3rd wave and now will move towards 4th corrective wave into green box region....
It must hold that region and then it will complete it 5th wave which equally matches with the target of 3rd macro count....
After 3rd macro count we can see slight pullback creating 4th corrective wave and then final macro 5th impulse wave will be made by #VTHO
ARUSDTThis is a long-term analysis.
To buy spot and medium term..
We may experience strong negative fluctuations, but it is worth the risk.
The numbers 11.5 to 12.5 dollars and 8.5 to 10 dollars are attractive prices to buy..
It is better to look at this purchase as a short-term investment.
Important trading times and nodes for the end of wave B and the beginning of wave C were determined..
[UPDATE] TRUMP COIN seem to have started next move upThis is an update on the view I shared yesterday on KRAKEN:TRUMPUSD
Looks like we can count 5 waves up now of a minor degree and currently in retracement (wave 2) of it. Once it takes out the minor wave 1 high of 48390, it would further strengthen the view that next impulse up has started with a target beyond 100.
FTSE 100 Wave Analysis 21 January 2025
- FTSE 100 broke strong resistance level 8400.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 8600.00
FTSE 100 index rising sharply after the price broke the strong resistance level 8400.00, which is the upper border of the sideways price range inside which the index has been moving from the start of 2024.
The breakout of this price range inside accelerated the active impulse waves iii and 3, which belong to the weekly upward impulse sequence (3) from the start of 2023.
Given the overriding uptrend seen on weekly charts, FTSE 100 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 8600.00, the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave iii.
55R Trade SilverExpecting a move up to $50-60 most likely this year.
Seasonal bearishness start around Oct-Nov time for precious metals so it would make sense for that to kick in around there and as I’m expecting the next move up to be the strongest since the Covid recovery move for various reasons including fundamentals and technicals - notably Platinum gearing up for wave 3 and the miners on the cusp of major multi-year trendline break outs - then a swift move up makes a lot of sense.
WTI crude oil Wave Analysis 23 January 2025
- WTI crude oil reversed from resistance level 78.00
- Likely to fall to support level 72.60
WTI crude oil recently reversed down from the major resistance level 78.00 (has been repeatedly reversing the price from July, as can be seen from the daily WTI chart below)
The downward reversal from the resistance level 78.00 started the active intermediate impulse wave (3).
WTI crude oil can be expected to fall toward the next support level 72.60 (low of the previous short-term correction iv from the start of this month).
AUDCAD Wave Analysis 23 January 2025
- AUDCAD broke round resistance level 0.9000
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9080
AUDCAD currency pair recently broke the round resistance level 0.9000 (which stopped the previous wave 4 at the start of January)
The breakout of the resistance level 0.9000 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from December and the daily down channel from September – which accelerated the active impulse wave 1.
AUDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 0.9080 (top of wave b from the middle of December).
Gold Spot Price Action and SMC Analysis: Potential Buy SetupOANDA:XAUUSD Gold Spot Price Action and SMC Analysis: Potential Buy Setup
Chart Analysis:
The chart shows the Gold Spot price against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) on a 4-hour timeframe, published on TradingView. The chart is annotated with various technical analysis tools and indicators, including trend lines, Fibonacci retracement levels, volume profile, and moving averages.
Price Action Analysis:
The price is currently in an uptrend, as indicated by higher highs and higher lows.
A significant bullish breakout (BOS - Break of Structure) is observed above the previous resistance level around 2700.
The price is trading above the 50-period moving average, which is acting as dynamic support.
Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
The chart shows a clear accumulation phase followed by a markup phase, indicating strong buying interest.
The price has broken above the key resistance level (BOS) and is now retesting this level, which could act as support.
The volume profile shows a high volume node around 2647.986, suggesting strong support at this level.
ICT Elliott Wave Analysis:
The chart displays an Elliott Wave pattern with labeled waves 0-1-2-3.
The current price action suggests the completion of wave 3, with a potential retracement to wave 4.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from the low of wave 2 to the high of wave 3, with key levels at 0.382 (2703.61456), 0.5 (2697.075), 0.618 (2690.53544), 0.705 (2685.7139), and 0.786 (2681.22488).
Buy Strategy:
Entry: Buy at the retest of the breakout level around 2700.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 2721.420 (21.42 pips)
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 2726.295 (26.295 pips)
Stop Loss (SL): 2685.7139 (14.2861 pips)
VIP Signal:
Entry: 2700
TP1: 2721.420 (21.42 pips)
TP2: 2726.295 (26.295 pips)
SL: 2685.7139 (14.2861 pips)
This analysis integrates various strategies, including Price Action, Smart Money Concepts (SMC), and ICT Elliott Wave Theory, to provide detailed buy strategies. The key levels identified offer optimal entry and exit points, ensuring a balanced risk-reward ratio for traders.