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Elliott Wave

Inside The Eye Of The Storm - $90 Target On TSMCIf you've seen my posts on Minds (particularly the board for NASDAQ:SOX ), it’s no secret that I’ve been bearish on semiconductors for some time. My bearish thesis is based on several factors: technical indicators, overvaluation of certain companies, and skepticism that AI-driven demand will result in broad-based prosperity. As the charts grow increasingly overbought, unfolding geopolitical developments could soon deliver a shock to the semiconductor sector, reinforcing the technical signals I’m observing. At the time of writing, the market is turning bearish. Futures are down over 1%, and the TVC:US10Y is up nearly 2%. Institutional investors remain cautious about the U.S. economy due to its high debt levels and efforts to raise the debt ceiling to accommodate an additional $2 trillion in debt-financed tax cuts. Meanwhile, on the trade war front, the U.S. and China have agreed to deescalate tensions, a surprisingly smooth shift after weeks of posturing and brinkmanship. Although SP:SPX surged over 2% on the news, something feels off—worthy of speculation. Recent articles in Foreign Affairs (www.foreignaffairs.com) and The Economist (www.economist.com) suggest that President Xi may now see his best opportunity to fulfill his longstanding goal of reunifying China. I encourage reading those articles if you're interested, but here’s my take—and how it relates to a low-risk/high-reward short trade in semiconductors. By striking a tariff-reduction deal with the Trump administration, China has removed a key obstacle that could have otherwise hindered military action against Taiwan. While Trump has flip-flopped on Taiwan over the years, he has previously threatened sanctions and tariffs as deterrents. But with the economy already strained, reimposing tariffs of 145% or higher would be self-defeating. This opens the door for China to escalate. Over the past month, we’ve seen “gray zone” tactics: military drills, suspicious Chinese fishing vessels dragging anchors near undersea cables, and reports that China may use its coast guard to “quarantine” vessels heading to or from Taiwan—potentially inflicting serious economic pain. Such moves would place the U.S. in a precarious position. To compound the risk, Taiwan imports 90% of its energy—mostly LNG—and just shut down its last nuclear reactor on Friday (5/16), which supplied around 4.5% of the nation’s power. In 2023, NYSE:TSM alone used more than 8% of Taiwan’s electricity, according to Business Insider. Any disruption to power or communications would halt production. This leads me to believe that China may attempt to annex Taiwan before 2027. (After all, why announce an invasion years in advance?) According to WIRED, NYSE:TSM produces at least 90% of the world’s most advanced chips, and Taiwanese companies control 68% of total global chip production. These fundamentals make Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company arguably the most vulnerable firm to any disruption in Taiwanese exports. I’ve covered the market’s broader setup in other posts, so I’ll keep the technical analysis here brief. On the weekly chart (right), NYSE:TSM ’s price rose from October 2022 to January 2025 in five distinct waves. That uptrend has now been broken, and the price appears to be in the right shoulder of a large Head & Shoulders pattern. While the downside potential is open-ended, we can estimate a target using technicals. I expect the price to slice through the entirety of Wave (3) and find support in the blue-box, which aligns with the volume profile and 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracements. A break below the weekly 200MA would be a very bearish sign. For now, I’ve set my target for NYSE:TSM at $90. Zooming in, the daily chart (right) shows numerous gaps and doji candles. The high-volume days were dominated by selling. On the 100R chart (left), including after-hours trading, the Fisher Transform oscillator shows bearish divergence. Although Friday closed flat (0.00%), the stock dropped nearly 2% after hours. I expect a move back to VWAP, especially if the broader market trends lower this week. To gauge how TSMC stacks up against the broader industry, let’s look at some peers. On the semiconductor index NASDAQ:SOX , there are two key gaps worth watching—similar to what we see in other indexes. The price is currently at the 0.618 retracement of Wave (A) and briefly peaked above the 200MA. I expect it to move lower from here, likely filling those gaps and setting new lows. For NASDAQ:NVDA , I’m seeing a Head & Shoulders pattern forming, with the price currently in Wave (B). Several downside price gaps exist, and more notably, there’s a volume gap between $95 and $102. On the 500R chart (left), Nvidia is clearly overbought and facing resistance at the upper VWAP band. A move to the 1.618 extension would be extreme—but there’s an order block around that level, along with a gap down near $31, visible on the daily chart (right). Such a steep drop would require a major catalyst. While it’s unclear how reliant NASDAQ:NVDA is on Taiwan, it’s reasonable to assume the leading AI chipmaker depends on a supply chain anchored by the company producing 90% of the world’s advanced chips. NASDAQ:AMD , another company heavily reliant on TSMC’s fabs, shows a very bearish setup on the weekly chart (right) when using a logarithmic scale. However, price action from the past year on the 500R chart (left) suggests it could move higher if basic Elliott Wave principles hold. AMD’s beta is 2.14 versus TSM’s 1.68, indicating lower correlation with the broader market. It may therefore be less compatible with wave theory, but it's still an essential ticker to monitor, especially as it diverges from NASDAQ:SOX and peers. To conclude, considering the current overbought level of NYSE:TSM , coupled with the broader market pivoting back to a bearish trend, and its unique position at the center of a geopolitical and trade crisis, I think shorting TSMC provides a low risk/high reward setup with a target of $90. All of this to say, I am not a coldhearted opportunist, and I hope Taiwan can remain a free, democratic, country that is able to withstand China’s grey-zone tactics. Unfortunately, we should be prepared for Xi to use this opportunity to find out just how committed to Taiwan the Trump administration is, and as we saw during the COVID shutdown and subsequent supply shortages, microprocessors are some of the most essential products in the world that just so happen to be produced in the most vulnerable country in Asia. I suspect that there is trouble afoot. Thank you for reading and let me know what you think.
NYSE:TSMShort
by ap769
1
ETHBTCFrom the general view of the chart, we see that there has been a corrective rise in the Fibo ratio, which is a natural percentage for correction, and then a re-fall to a new bottom, unless the top of the area shown above is broken, in which case this analysis will fail. *In principle, I am not a supporter of any direction, but I am only giving my point of view, which may be right or wrong. If the analysis helps you, then this is for you. If you do not like this analysis, there is no problem. Just ignore it. My goal is to spread the benefit. I am not one of the founders of the currency.
Short
by KhaldHegazy
EURJPY - Wave 5 Final Push? Time to Watch for Reversal🌀 EURJPY - Wave 5 Final Push? Time to Watch for Reversal 🚨 (Elliott Wave + AO Divergence + Fib Confluence) 📆 Date: May 19, 2025 📊 Pair: EUR/JPY ⏱️ Timeframe: 1H 🔍 Tools: Elliott Wave, Fibonacci Extension, Awesome Oscillator (AO) 🧠 Technical Breakdown We are currently tracking a textbook Elliott Wave impulsive decline, with price forming a clean 5-wave structure to the downside. The pair now seems to be completing Wave (5) — and several strong signals suggest that a bullish reversal might be imminent. 🔢 Elliott Wave Count ✅ Wave (1) to (4) are already completed. 🔻 Wave (5) has broken below the 2.618 fib extension — which confirms an extended fifth wave. 📉 Current downside target zone lies between the 4.236 – 4.786 extensions: 4.236: ~161.796 4.786: ~161.275 This blue box zone (161.80 – 161.27) is now a high-probability completion area for Wave (5). 📈 Awesome Oscillator (AO) – Bullish Divergence Detected AO shows a clear bullish divergence between Waves (3) and (5). Momentum is fading on the bearish side while price makes a new low — classic signal of potential trend reversal. 🎯 Trade Plan: Wait for Confirmation We’re not jumping in yet — but we’re close. ✅ What to Watch For: Let price reach the 4.236–4.786 fib zone (at minimum 161.796). Wait for a Break of Structure (BoS) — a clear break above a recent lower high (likely Wave 4). On the retest or pullback, look for long entry setups such as: Bullish engulfing candles Pin bar rejection MACD/AO flip Trendline breakout retest 🎯 Targets TP1: 162.80 – 163.50 (previous Wave 4 zone) TP2: 50% – 61.8% retracement of Wave (5) TP3: 164.40 – 165.20 (supply zone and structure confluence) 🛑 Stop Loss Idea Place SL below the 4.786 extension (~161.27) or beneath the new low formed, depending on your entry type (aggressive vs conservative). ⚡ Summary This setup brings multiple confluences together: ✅ Elliott Wave (5-wave completion) ✅ Fibonacci extension target zone ✅ AO bullish divergence ✅ Waiting for structure break for smart entry 💬 Let’s Talk Are you watching this setup too? Drop a 👍 or your analysis below — let’s grow together! ✅ Follow me for more clean setups using Elliott Wave, Divergence, and Price Action. 🔔 Hit the alert — EURJPY is cooking something! #EURJPY #ElliottWave #Forex #AO #BullishDivergence #FibExtension #PriceAction #WaveAnalysis #TradingSetup #ForexSignals
Long
by AwesomeOscDad
Next step for ETHThere is a ending diagonal formed from five overlapping waves and now it is preparing to break the bottom of the first wave and then decline again. *In principle, I am not a supporter of any direction, but I am only giving my point of view, which may be right or wrong. If the analysis helps you, then this is for you. If you do not like this analysis, there is no problem. Just ignore it. My goal is to spread the benefit. I am not one of the founders of the currency.
Short
by KhaldHegazy
AMDWell, price made it into the box as I had forecasted. Is the pattern done for now to the upside? We cannot say yet, but if it does move higher, we should be looking to the 1.618 @ $126.16 for a reaction. I think another high to the 1.618 would fit great into the pattern after some slight consolidation to lower MACD. If we can do that before making another high, we would be carving out some neg div to help push price down for minor B. Once we do in fact have a top in place for minor A, I will draw some fibs to help track the move lower. As of now, I am seeing the $85-$92 area for B to drop to. Eventually, I see this pattern up in the $150-$180 range for the (B) wave completion. It will be some time before (B) completes though. (A) took 13 months to complete. If (B) follows suit that means it won't be done until around April-May 2026. Let me know if you have any questions.
NASDAQ:AMD
by TSuth
6
DOGE → Retest of the panic zone. One step away from a downtrendBINANCE:DOGEUSDT.P is facing selling pressure. After distribution (pump), the price enters a correction phase (dump) and storms the panic zone, a breakout of which could intensify an uncontrolled decline. DOGEUSDT squandered all the potential accumulated in late April and early May. The distribution ended in the 0.2600 zone, after which the coin entered a correction phase. At the moment, the coin is testing the panic zone of 0.21400 All attention is on the base of the triangle at 0.21400. This is the panic zone. When the support breaks, buyers will be liquidated, and sellers may increase sales, which could trigger a bearish momentum. Resistance levels: 0.222, 0.2307 Support levels: 0.2145, 0.2135 The main idea is a continuation of the decline. The trigger is a breakdown of support at 0.2135 and consolidation of the price below this zone, only in this case will the price continue to fall. !!! The structure will be broken if the price reverses and consolidates above 0.222 and confirms the bullish sentiment with price consolidation above 0.23, in which case we will again consider growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
24
EUR/USD Analysis – Bearish Continuation Setup (Wave (5) in ProgrTimeframe: 15m Date: May 18, 2025 Tools Used: Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, SNR Zones, Awesome Oscillator (AO) Bias: Bearish Confluence Zone for Entry: 1.618 – 2.618 Fib Extension 🔍 Technical Breakdown: 🌀 Elliott Wave Count: We are currently tracking a 5-wave impulsive bearish structure on EUR/USD. Wave (1), (2), and (3) have been completed. Price is now forming a corrective Wave (4) which appears to be completing near a key SNR zone and Fibonacci confluence area. Based on the wave structure and market behavior, Wave (5) is expected to follow after this correction completes, targeting a new lower low. 📏 Fibonacci Confluence: Wave (4) retracement aligns with several Fibonacci extension levels: 1.618 (1.11663) – This is the first key resistance zone, coinciding with prior support turned resistance (SNR) and the AO convergence point. 2.618 (1.11892) – Acts as the extended potential reversal point if price overshoots the 1.618 zone. These fib zones create a tight area of interest for potential entries with stop-loss placement above 2.618, targeting Wave (5) completion near 1.1120 or below. 🧱 SNR (Support & Resistance) Zone: The area between 1.11600 – 1.11900 has historically acted as a supply zone. Price reacted sharply from here during prior bearish moves. Break of microstructure around 1.11464 – 1.11428 would further confirm bearish intent and potential early Wave (5) entry. 📉 AO (Awesome Oscillator) – Bearish Convergence (H1 + M15): There is a clear bearish convergence on both H1 and M15: Price formed lower lows, while AO histogram also made higher lows, indicating momentum is still bearish despite the corrective bounce. This convergence supports the idea that Wave (4) is just a temporary correction, not a trend reversal. 🎯 Trade Plan (Hypothetical Example): Sell Zone (Entry): Between 1.11663 – 1.11892 (Fib 1.618 to 2.618 + SNR zone) Confirmation: Bearish structure break (1.11464 – 1.11428) Stop Loss: Above 1.11920 (just above 2.618 level) Target: 1.11200 area (Wave (5) projection) 📌 Summary: This setup offers a clean multi-confluence short opportunity, aligning with: Elliott Wave structure (Wave (5) pending) Fibonacci extensions (1.618 – 2.618) SNR resistance zone AO bearish convergence on both H1 and M15 ⚠️ Wait for structural confirmation and always manage risk carefully. Traders should wait for confirmation from price action (e.g. a break below 1.11428) before entering. Risk management is essential as fib extensions can occasionally overshoot before price turns. #EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #ElliottWave #Wave5Setup #AOConvergence #AwesomeOscillator #FibConfluence #SNRZone #PriceAction #BearishSetup #WaveTheory #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #StructureBreak #ForexSetup #MomentumTrading #MultiTimeframeAnalysis #FXTrading #MarketStructure #ShortOpportunity
Short
by AwesomeOscDad
NIFTY50.....New target-area ahead!Hello Traders, the NIFTY50 has advanced to 25116.25 on Friday! This was week's high. So, my expectation was wrong! Instead, the index rallied to the new multi week's high. Chart analysis: The level of 24973.80 was wave one (red) ( of v (blue), the correction after wave 2 of v, same degree. The coming move probably should start wave 3 (red) of 5 (blue). One possible target, if so to come, it's around the 27853 range, ± some points. Any corrective setbacks that still end above 23847 makes the count not invalid! But, as before! Once a trend has been established, the focus is to the upside in this case. So the new level for a wave ((iii) of v (blue) is around 27853 area. Have a great Sunday..... Ruebennase Please ask or comment as appropriate. Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
NSE:NIFTY
by ruebennase
20
XRP/USD – Bullish Reversal in Progress After Wave 5 Completion📊 XRP/USD – Bullish Reversal in Progress After Wave 5 Completion Timeframe: 1H Structure: Elliott Wave + Divergence + Break of Structure Indicators Used: Awesome Oscillator (AO), Fibonacci Retracement, Market Structure ⸻ 🧠 Wave Count & Structure Analysis We’ve just completed a clean 5-wave Elliott impulsive structure to the downside: • ✅ Wave 1–5 clearly marked with strong bearish momentum • ✅ Wave (3) and Wave (5) show bullish divergence on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) – a classic sign of weakening bearish momentum and potential reversal • ✅ Wave (5) completed at the bottom with confluence from price action and AO divergence ⸻ 🔁 Break of Structure & Confirmation • ✅ Break of structure (BoS) occurred at 2.35064, confirming the end of the bearish impulsive wave and the start of a potential ABC corrective phase • ✅ The BoS also coincides with a dominant structure break, giving higher confidence in the trend shift ⸻ 🟦 Current Price Action: ABC Corrective Wave Forming We’re now in the early stages of a bullish corrective wave (ABC): • 🔹 Wave A has likely completed • 🔹 Currently expecting a retracement to form Wave B • 🔹 Wave C target is projected based on Fibonacci extensions between 1.618 to 1.88, offering a high-probability take-profit zone (TP1) ⸻ 🎯 Trade Setup Pending Buy Entry: • 📍 Entry Zone: Fibonacci retracement between 0.382 – 0.618 of Wave A • 🎯 TP1: Fibonacci extension of Wave C between 1.618 – 1.88 • ❗ SL: Just below Wave (5) low or below 0.618 zone, depending on risk tolerance ⸻ 🧩 Confluences for Bullish Setup • ✅ Elliott Wave completion (Wave 5) • ✅ Bullish Divergence on AO • ✅ Break of Market Structure (BoS + Dominant BoS) • ✅ Retracement into Fibonacci golden zone (0.382–0.618) • ✅ Measured C wave extension to 1.618–1.88 ⸻ 📝 Summary The market has shown strong technical signals for a bullish corrective move after a clean Elliott 5-wave completion. With a confirmed divergence, break of structure, and upcoming ABC retracement, this setup offers a solid risk-to-reward opportunity. Watching the buy zone closely for a pending long trigger. ⸻ 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and manage your risk accordingly.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by AwesomeOscDad
Bitcoin Might Be Forming a Local Top – Watch the Trendline!!After completing a clear 5-wave impulsive move, Bitcoin appears to be losing bullish momentum. The price is testing the main ascending trendline, and a breakdown could lead to a deeper correction. The wave count suggests that the 5th wave may already be completed, potentially marking a local top. The key support zone to watch is around $97,740 – a clean break below this level could trigger further downside pressure. 📉 Structure: 5-wave impulsive move 🟦 Support zone: ~$97,740 🔵 Trendline: Currently under test 📌 Bias: Bearish below trendline 📅 Forecast Date: May 18, 2025 ⏳ Timeframe: 4H This is not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
Short
by CakirInsights
Chart history XRPThis analysis will take a lot of time because it is medium-term and the failure point is close and only when it is broken does the analysis fail. Other than that, it is in a downward trend and all the data is explained on the chart. *In principle, I am not a supporter of any direction, but I am only giving my point of view, which may be right or wrong. If the analysis helps you, then this is for you. If you do not like this analysis, there is no problem. Just ignore it. My goal is to spread the benefit. I am not one of the founders of the currency.
by KhaldHegazy
Bitcoin at Resistance With Weak Momentum-Bearish SetupBitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) finally reached the Resistance zone($105,100-$104,520) as I expected yesterday. Of course, the way Bitcoin reached the resistance zone was NOT with high momentum , so I decided to share this analysis with you. In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , Bitcoin appears to have formed a Rising Wedge Reversal Pattern between Support zone($103,320-$102,600) and Resistance zone($105,100-$104,520) over the past few hours . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , given Bitcoin’s low momentum and the Heavy Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($105,180-$104,412) ahead of Bitcoin, it appears that Bitcoin has completed microwave B of the main wave 4 with a Double Three Correction(WXY) . I expect Bitcoin to decline to at least $102,800 at the first target AFTER breaking the lower line of the Rising Wedge Pattern, and if the Support zone($103,320-$102,600) and lower line of the ascending channel(Major) are broken, we should expect a drop to Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($100,763-$99,600) . Note: If Bitcoin touches $105,850, we can expect further increases. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
53
MANA End of Cycle Correction Major Wave Structure UnfoldingMANA has completed a downward 5-wave impulsive decline, terminating at a strong dynamic support that also aligns with the Base Demand Zone. Following the low, price entered a prolonged complex corrective phase (ABCDE structure) establishing a broad Consolidation Zone. A clean breakout from the wedge confirms the completion of impulsive upside Wave 1, setting the stage for a projected upside impulsive rally targeting higher fib extensions. The prior swing high at 0.7832 serves as a critical pivot, and price is expected to retrace into the 0.389 before continuation for the projected wave 3. The current price action is likely the start of Wave 2 pullback within the larger impulsive wave 1 structure, with the Buy-Back Zone highlighted between the Re-Accumulation and Base Demand Zones, offering a potential re-entry opportunity for the next impulsive expansion. The ultimate targets lie within the Major Supply Zone (Sell-Off Area), where final distribution and cycle completion may occur. Do share your view on this project with us.
COINBASE:MANAUSDLong
by weslad
7