Beautiful fractals of Bitcoin ends before ChristmasWhen we start counting the strong and memorable upward waves of Bitcoin from August's lowest price, where we saw a nice support reaction at $49,000, we witness one of the most beautiful phenomena in the financial markets on the chart. It's a stunning nested fractal that showcases a powerful five-wave upward movement, with the third wave standing out, and it itself has formed another self-similar five-wave fractal, for 4 times in a row!
I can't emphasize enough how beautiful this part of the market is. The power of the upward waves, the neat and appealing corrections, the Fibonacci levels that comply with Elliott's rules, and the stunning reactions to significant static and dynamic levels—all of this creates an incredible visual. I can share this section of the Bitcoin chart many times in my classes to help enthusiasts understand the nested nature of market waves and gain greater mastery and appreciation for the beauty of the financial market. I've even tried to create a minimal drawing of this phenomenon on the chart with my limited drawing skills.
Now, we see that all these fractals have closed at the price of $108,000, and there isn't an upward fractal that had started before touching the low at $49,000. The downward momentum from the $108,000 price indicates that we've completed a strong bullish period and are entering a new phase. The end of an upward movement doesn’t necessarily mean the beginning of a downturn, so I’m not setting any outlandish bearish targets. I always track the market step by step. This could be the start of a significant drop, or perhaps the price will range for a while. The recent movement, which has lasted about 135 days, suggests that this correction period won't end soon, and I don’t expect the historical peak to be broken until March 2025 at the earliest.
Based on fundamental analysis of the markets in the upcoming year, I believe we can agree that Bitcoin's upward movement may continue into next year. However, given the economic data and the Federal Reserve's cautious decisions to strengthen the dollar, we shouldn't expect this rise to happen rapidly. Bitcoin's fluctuations in the $90,000, $80,000, and maybe even $70,000 range can be good news for those who are still dollar-cost averaging.
By the way, I wish all market participants the best in the new year. Merry Christmas 🎄 and Happy new year! ✨✨✨✨
Elliott Wave
Alikze »» ONE | Accumulation phase🔍 Technical analysis: The accumulation phase is ready for the bullish wave 3 rally - 1W
📣 BINANCE:ONEUSDT In the previous analysis, the weekly timeframe was corrected after hitting the supply zone, the details of which were examined.
🟢 On the weekly timeframe, it is in a three-year range in a concentration that is in the accumulation phase.
🟢 At present, given that the current supply zone has been consumed, we should wait for the zone break for the next supply zone.
🟢 Therefore, this upward leg will have the ability to grow to the neckline area, which can bring a 200-300% rally.
💎After breaking the second supply zone and consolidating above the area, it will have the ability to grow to the 84 cents area.
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Bitcoin Roadmap==>>Short-termBitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is moving near the Support zone ($95,000-$90,870) and 50_SMA(Daily) , also Bitcoin managed to break the Descending Channel . Although the main Ascending Channel has been broken in the above time frame , I still expect the pullback to the main ascending channel to continue.
Regarding Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to be completing microwave Y of the main wave 4 .
I expect Bitcoin to rise to at least the 🎯Targets🎯 I have specified on the chart .
⚠️Note: If Bitcoin breaks below the Support zone($95,000-$93,500), there is a high probability that Bitcoin will go below $90,000.⚠️
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Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
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Wave4 is complete, here setup for wave5CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS setup very much same to CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 only difference is level of wave4 retracement - 0.62 compare to regular 0.5 on TOTAL3 that is more common for wave4. But consider that OTHERS consist more meme coins its no surprise it have deeper retrace. Both wave2 and wave4 completed same sized wave correction.
But even with such deep retrace its not overlapping with wave1, thus regular targets as 420B(1.272) or 515B(1.618) are what can be expected based on closed price projection. 1.272 provide reasonable projection and stay within monthly range, but consider fact this index of everything but top10 it can skew on extremes easily.
And there more conservative/alternative way to calculate projection that give us zone of 400B-455B of interest.
Timing wise, last 3 times crypto peaked around December plus minus month. But all previous bulls markets have 24-28 month cycle from lowest monthly bar of bear market. Thus making this December - 24 bar peak on low end and early spring on high end to reach it.
Bitcoin - More blood will follow (Do not buy now, buy here!)Bitcoin is completely manipulated by the banks and huge institutions. They sent Bitcoin down just to make your Christmas and New Year celebrations bad. But luckily I warned you about this crash a few days ago, just before it happened in my previous analysis, when almost everyone was drunk with strong greed. Bitcoin crashed by 15% so far; altcoins are down by 30% to 70%.
The last days were very profitable, but let's focus on the future, because that's the most important. Bitcoin bounced a bit from 92k to 99k, giving players hope that the bottom is in. But do not be fooled, this looks like a corrective move for multiple reasons.
The first reason is that the crash was extremely fast and strong, pretty much no one expected such a drop in the short term. My Elliott Wave analysis suggests that this is a strong impulse wave 12345 and therefore the start of a larger corrective structure ABC. We have finished wave A, now we are in wave B, and we can expect wave C to finish at around 85k! You want to take a Fibonacci extension, as you can see on my chart.
I strongly recommend waiting for 85k because we have an unfilled FVGAP on the daily chart, and this needs to be tested. Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Netflix Is In Process Of Doing Five Waves AdvanceShort Term Elliott Wave view in Netflix ticker symbol: NASDAQ:NFLX suggests that rally from 8.05.2024 low is incomplete & should continue upside. It is showing 3 swing higher since August-2024 low & expect more upside against 11.18.2024 low. It ended 1 at $736 high as diagonal & 2 correction at $669 low. Within 1, it placed ((i)) at $711.33 high, ((ii)) at $660.80 low & ((iii)) at $728 high. Wave ((iv)) ended at $696.43 low & finally ((v)) ended at $736 high as wave 1. Within 2 correction, it placed ((a)) at $699.78 low, ((b)) at $710.24 high & ((c)) at $669 low near 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.
Above 2 low, it favors upside in wave 3 in another 5 waves impulse sequence. Whereas wave ((i)) ended at $773 high, wave ((ii)) ended at $744.26 low. Wave ((iii)) ended at $841 high, wave ((iv)) ended at $804.30 low and wave ((v)) at $941.75 high. Below from there, the stock made a pullback in wave 4 to correct the cycle from 10.17.2024 low. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure where wave ((w)) ended at $909.61 low in a lesser degree 3 waves.
A bounce to $928.94 high ended wave ((x)) and started the ((y)) leg lower towards $896.73- $876.79 blue box area where buyers were expected to appear. Since then the stock has reacted higher from the blue box area allowed longs to get into a risk free position. Therefore ended wave 4 pullback at $881.01 within the blue box area. Near-term, as far as dips remain above $881.01 low and more importantly above $804.46 low the stock is expected to resume the upside in wave 5. For minimum extension target towards $956.38- $979.68 area higher (inverse 123.6%- 161.8% Fib extension of wave 4). Before ending the cycle from 8.05.2024 low in 5 waves advance & making a pullback.
USDJPY Wave Analysis 23 December 2024
- USDJPY reversed from key support level 156.35
- Likely to rise to resistance level 158.00
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 156.35 (former resistance from November, acting as she support after it was broken last week).
The upward reversal from the support level 156.35 continues the active minor impulse waves iii and 3 – both of which belong to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of December.
USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 158.00, the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 160.00.
Comparing US10Y/DXY/US500/VIX, fundamental/technical analysisProposed technical/fundamental analysis for US10Y/DXY/US500/VIX.
Bank unrealized losses on available-for-sale and held to maturity securities was $364 billion in Q3 2024; this number will continue to increase as long-term treasure rates increase (www.fdic.gov).
US10Y yield chart looks for yield to go higher, north of 5%. If treasury rates continue to increase, there may be a bank run, as banks get more and more underwater with their unrealized losses. DXY will go up above 120, US500 will crater below October 2022 low of 3490.2, and VIX will pop towards 80.
BTC : All Time High IN - OR Multimonth Playout?Bitcoin has begun a steep drop, and it's likely that the ATH is priced in. This fits my previous idea that the ATH would either be just over or just under 100k.
There is, ofcourse, another option as well - a continuation over the next few months. This is likely if the price of BTC follows a fractal of the previous cycle. It would become likely if we see a strong bounce around the 81-82K zone, pushing us up into the 90's.
But, at the moment, I'm leaning towards the idea that the ATH is in.
It would also makes sense for the ATH to be in, from an Elliot Wave Theory perspective, since we've made a perfect 5 waves. If this is indeed the case, we can look forward to a few more rallies in the altmarket.
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long term fot ETH could look insaneLooking at the long-term for ETH and assuming that we're putting 5 waves of i, of the highest degree of trend, we could be on an orgasmic wave 5 that IF equal to 1, which is often the case, could reach highs which go past the moon, on to Jupiter and beyond. Keep an eye on it, and let's see if the minor degree of trend of subsequent waves gives us confirmation. Follow for more.
GOLD → Correction before further declineFX:XAUUSD is testing the zones of interest within the counter-trend correction after it managed to break a rather strong level earlier. The fundamental background is not very good, there is bearish pressure on the market.
The negative impact on gold is built around the hawkish stance of the Fed (inflation, Trump's future policy and the economic data of the last two weeks). The cycle of interest rate cuts may slow to 2 rate cuts for 2025.
Friday's correction is mainly due to PCE data, but I don't think it will change the global picture.
Towards the end of the year, it is logical to reduce liquidity in the markets, which could increase mispriced volatility in the market. Be careful!
The gold market is still supported by the conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
Technically, price is forming a flag after a strong decline. At the moment the price is inside the pattern and for trading it is worth paying attention to the boundaries of the local channel.
Resistance levels: 2620, 2631, 2640
Support levels: 2606, 2560
Emphasis on 2620. If the bears break the level and keep the defense below the level, it can generally increase the pressure, which will provoke the price drop.
But I do not rule out an attempt to break the channel resistance and retest 2640-2650 before a further fall.
Regards R. Linda!