Ready for 6.5% on the 10Y T-Bill?It’s been a while since I’ve posted an Idea, however since the market may be at a pivotal point I thought I’d do a quick analysis on the $US10Y. Using elliott wave and fibonacci ratios as my base logic, I predict that we could see a 6.5% or higher 10 year T-bill in the near future.
The fib extension above is based off 1.00 of Primary waves 0-3. I’m counting that we are in the early stages of the 5th and final wave, which is commonly 61.8% of waves 0-3 in length.
My wave count is supported by the DMI indicator and the 50sma (Blue) & 100sma (yellow). The yield is still above the moving averages, signaling a continuation to the upside. Primary wave 4 was a zig zag (A-B-C) pattern in a slightly descending channel, which has a tendency to break to the upside. With inflation proving stubborn and a looming trade war providing a backdrop that is concerning to investors, it is time we get back into the mindset that the inflation battle isn’t quite over yet. Yields are rising across the world and the US is no exception.
Elliott Wave
Potential Long Trade Setup – Elliott Wave Analysis (4H)We are currently witnessing the development of a third wave on the 4H timeframe. Based on the familiar structure of previous movements, this wave could extend towards the 4.25 and 6.85 Fibonacci levels, making them potential take-profit zones.
Following this, we expect a wave 4 retracement before a final wave 5 push, which could bring the price into the $3–$5 range — marking a new all-time high for Cardano!
EUR/USD 4H | Elliott Wave Triangle Formation & Potential Wave 5"This idea explores an Elliott Wave setup for EUR/USD on the 4H timeframe. The pair is forming a contracting triangle, which is likely completing Wave 4 of the impulsive wave sequence. Key levels to watch:
Invalidation level (upside): 1.06776
Invalidation level (downside): 1.03492
If the price holds within the triangle and breaks downward, Wave 5 could target the lower support zone near 1.00169. However, a breakout above 1.06776 could invalidate this bearish scenario.
This setup highlights the importance of patience and discipline, waiting for confirmation before entering trades. Monitor key levels closely and adjust your strategy accordingly.
Gold Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends,
We are witnessing a 5-wave impulse pattern on the gold chart. Waves 1 to 5 have been completed and a zigzag of the subsequent waves has also been completed.
Now we need to check what will happen.
Usually, after each Sharpe growth, a deep correction will also occur.
All the 5 main waves have been identified and have occurred, and I would expect a correction.
Given that a zigzag wave has occurred in the correction, we can expect a triangle or most likely an Expanded Flat.
An Expanded Flat has a 3_3_5 structure, with wave C extending and growing to 161.8 times the length of wave A.
This structure consists of 2 zigzags in the majority of waves A and B, a 5-wave in the majority of wave C. If the bottom formed by wave A is broken, a sell trade can be entered.
The price target is the range of $2,750 and then $2,720.
Be successful and profitable.
MEUSDT Ready to Explode or Another Bull Trap?Yello, Paradisers! Are we about to witness a strong bullish reversal on MEUSDT, or is another trap being set? Let’s break it down.
💎MEUSDT has formed a well-structured ending diagonal with a clear 5-wave pattern, increasing the probability of an upcoming bullish move. Additionally, the inverse head & shoulders pattern, combined with bullish divergence, further supports a potential reversal. However, for confirmation, we need a decisive breakout and candle close above the key resistance zone to increase our odds.
💎In case of a retracement or panic selling, we are eyeing a bounce from the major support zone, where a potential double-bottom formation could play out. But to strengthen the bullish case, we need to see bullish I-CHoCH (Internal Change of Character) or a W-pattern forming on lower timeframes.
💎On the flip side, if MEUSDT breaks down and closes candle below the major support zone, it will invalidate our bullish outlook. In that scenario, waiting for stronger price action and a more favorable setup would be the best approach.
🎖Patience and strategy are key, Paradisers! Rushing into trades without confirmation is a sure way to get trapped. Play it smart, stay disciplined, and wait for high-probability setups. That’s how you win in this market!
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
KAVA/USDT 300% Growth PotentialKAVA is one of the few coins that held exceptionally well during the recent market manipulation. While most cryptos printed new lower lows, KAVA/USDT formed a solid double bottom around the psychological support at $0.40.
From a technical perspective, this setup suggests strong upside potential. If the support holds, we could see a significant bullish breakout in the coming months. I wouldn't be surprised if the price skyrockets by 300% over the next three months.
Are you bullish on KAVA?
GOLD → The northbound train is ready to move onFX:XAUUSD is back in trend after a news (inflation) shakeout. The northbound train can continue its journey from station 2908. Initial Jobless Claims and PPI ahead
Prices are supported by uncertainty around Trump's tariffs and US economic data. The Fed remains hawkish due to rising inflation, which raised bond yields and briefly drove the gold price down to $2,865. However, buyers quickly returned, driving the price back up again. The market is waiting for PPI data that could influence Fed policy, but the decline in gold prices is likely to be limited due to trade risks
The price is consolidating in the buying zone relative to the important 2900 - 2908 point. If bulls hold their defenses above 2908, gold could update ATH in the medium term
Resistance levels: 2920, 2929, 2942
Support levels: 2908, 2902
Emphasis on key levels. Gold may test 2908 support before rising further. Also the emphasis is on 2918 - 2920. A price consolidation above this zone will also support the price
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin - Buy now! Ready to pump to 125 000 (alt season)I recommend buying Bitcoin as the price is ready to go much higher in February. The current price is 98,000, and I expect Bitcoin to hit 111,000 in the immediate short term. 111k is a strong resistance because it's the top of the ascending parallel channel. Bitcoin has been in this channel for 91 days since November 2024. Then later this year in summer, Bitcoin will reach 125k.
But we should focus on altcoins in the next months! Why? Because a huge alt season is starting! Let's take a look at the BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) chart because this is the major indicator of altcoin seasons. As per my analysis, the price recently hit a strong resistance and needs to go down to 48%. We could experience the greatest alt season in years, so be ready! Make sure you have the right altcoins. Ethereum is definitely one of the altcoins that will outperform Bitcoin in the next months.
I am very bullish on Bitcoin and on the overall crypto market for the next weeks and months! Now is the time to buy, but let me know in the comment section, what do you think?
Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
GBP/USD - Outlook Update.We caught a nice trade of 555Pips yesterday. We are now making HH's and expecting to make a Bullish break out of this Liquidity Trend.
1H View Only
Before this happens I expect us to be oversold currently and Id be looking for sellers to come in to mitigate the recent Imbalance towards the next Demand zone of which I will either hold my sell or look to buy long term
Please feel free to follow my trade setups along this journey
Are we looking at XRP all wrong? Irregular Flat?I’ve been losing sleep over this—tossing, turning, staring at the ceiling, wondering: why the hell did the so-called 5th wave of XRP only play out as a 3-wave move? Something about it just doesn’t sit right.
We all saw it—no glorious final push, no clean Elliott Wave structure, just an unapologetic dump on February 3rd. And let’s be real, there’s no truncated 5th wave here. That’s just cope.
So maybe—just maybe—we’re looking at this all wrong. What if what people are calling wave 5 is actually just wave B in an irregular (expanded) flat? If that’s the case, then buckle up, because that would mean we’re still in wave 4, grinding through one massive, patience-testing consolidation.
Which, let’s be honest, makes a lot of sense given the way XRP loves to move. Nothing is ever straightforward. Just when you think it’s about to take off, it does the electric slide in the opposite direction.
So, the question now is: when do we actually get wave 5? And more importantly—will it be worth the wait?
What do you think—am I onto something, or am I just sleep-deprived and overthinking? 😵💫 Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️
Meta Short: PeakedI've explained in this video why I think Meta has peaked. Here's the summary:
1. Completion of 5 waves.
2. Fibonacci Extension level hit (target: $725.76, actual: $725.01, diff: $0.75)
3. Bearish Reversal candle with high enough volume (I missed mentioning this in the video)
This is a good risk-reward trade with Stop at $726 and take profit at $550.
Good luck!
XAUUSD - Elliott Wave & Liquidity AnalysisThe chart is based on the 30-minute timeframe, so short-mid term.
Market Bias:
Bearish correction underway after an extended 5th wave up. The correction could unfold in an ABC pattern, with Fibonacci confluences lining up at 2870, 2847, and 2809. Once we clear PDL and close below it, we will have confirmation and a shift in market structure.
From there, our potential targets for the corrective move are:
Target 1: 2864
Target 2: 2854
Target 3: 2837
Target 4: 2829
Target 5 (1.618 Extension): 2809
Expect bearish continuation as long as price holds below 2914 area.
Manage risk carefully, as corrective waves can be choppy.
Trade safe!
DAX index Wave Analysis – 12 February 2025
- DAX index broke resistance level 22000.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 22500.00
DAX index is under the bullish pressure afar the earlier breakout of the daily up channel from August and the resistance level 22000.00
The breakout of the resistance level 22000.00 greatly accelerated the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from November.
Given the clear daily uptrend and the accelerating upward channel inside which the price is moving now, DAX index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 22500.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 12 February 2025
- Bitcoin reversed from the support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 100,000.00
Bitcoin cryptocurrency recently reversed up from the support area between support levels 93775.00 and 90000.00. This support area has stopped the previous corrections 4, A, C and 2, as can be seen below.
This support area was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward price impulse from November.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next round resistance level 100,000.00.
GOLD → News ahead. Price is testing the risk zone 2881FX:XAUUSD within the correction is testing the key risk zone from which either a continuation of the trend or a deeper correction will take place.
In the center of attention is the US CPI data, which may give a new impetus to prices.
Markets remain in uncertainty over Trump's possible tariffs and Fed policy. According to WSJ, the president's administration is preparing new tariffs and this is another dose of risks for the global economy.
Powell said that the Fed is in no hurry to change course, which raised expectations of a single rate cut in July and strengthened bond yields. Gold's further movement depends on inflation data and Trump's tariffs. If CPI exceeds forecasts, the dollar will strengthen and gold will fall in price. Weak data, on the contrary, may support the metal's growth.
Resistance levels: 2898, 2910, 2929
Support levels: 2881, 2870, 2855
A false break of the support at 2881 would mean that the market is still bullish and quite aggressive. If the bulls keep the price above 2881 - 2885, then in the short and medium term we should expect a rise to 2930 - 2950.
If gold breaks 2881 and sticks below this zone, then liquidation may take place in the market and the price may decline to 2855, 2848.
The situation is stalemate, as there is news ahead and that is why we should consider 2 scenarios.
Regards R. Linda!
EURUSD → Pending a breakout of resistanceFX:EURUSD is trying to take a chance amid the dollar correction. The price is forming a retest of consolidation resistance for a breakout and further growth
After an attempt to break the downtrend resistance, the price moves into consolidation and forms a range of 1.053 - 1.021. Inside this set-up a local channel (consolidation) is formed and the price tests the resistance at 1.038. The market is still trying to confirm the change of trend and get stronger on the background of the dollar correction.
The fundamental background is complicated due to the tariff war and economic crisis....
Resistance levels: 1.038, 1.053
Support levels: 1.033, 1.021
A breakthrough of the resistance at 1.038 and price consolidation above this area may trigger further growth within the distribution of the accumulated potential
Regards R. Linda!
USDCAD → Consolidation before downward distributionFX:USDCAD is stuck in a range (consolidation) between 1.4486 and 1.428. The dollar has been showing negative momentum lately, but with NFP ahead, the data could both reinforce the correction and support the index...
All eyes are on today's economic news. If the actual NFP is below the forecast (169K), it will strengthen the expectations of the Fed rate cut.
At 15:00 the Fed's monetary policy report will be released, which may clarify the further course of the regulator.
If the NFP comes out weak, the dollar may sag and USDCAD may decline.
If the data is stronger than expected, the USD will strengthen, which will lift the USDCAD.
If the Fed hints at a rate cut, it may weaken the USD, supporting the CAD
Resistance levels: 1.4345, 1.4369
Support levels: 1.428
News is uncertainty, as it is impossible to determine the outcome of this situation in advance.
Technically, the currency pair looks weak due to the falling dollar. A break of the support at 1.428 may trigger further decline.
Regards R. Linda!
Turn off the log and see the Bitcoin waves.The Bitcoin market is delivering a powerful signal as it not only hit but exceeded the monumental $100K milestone.
This follows three significant bull runs characterised by substantial retail participation in 2017, 2021, and the dramatic surge leading up to Trump's presidential inauguration on Jan 20th 2025.
You don’t have to be an expert in Elliott Wave theory to recognise the five prominent upward waves and the three smaller downward waves (a, b, c) illustrated on this monthly chart.
Elliott Wave theory serves as a tool in technical analysis, helping to interpret a security's price fluctuations over time by pinpointing recurring eight-wave patterns within the return data.
Ralph Nelson Elliott unveiled his groundbreaking theory in the 1930s, gaining recognition for accurately forecasting the stock market's lowest point in 1935 through meticulous analysis of long-term indices and historical trends. The Elliott wave theory serves as a technical analysis framework, asserting that stock price fluctuations primarily manifest in waves rather than straightforward patterns. This approach shares notable similarities with the Dow theory, as both suggest that price movements unfold in waves rather than mere linear sequences.
Do you think we might have actually experienced a left-translated bull run? Or do you feel this is merely a reset in sentiment, characterised by sideways price movements, while crypto still has the potential to soar to the lofty heights that mainstream influencers eagerly promote?
EUR/USD 4H Elliott Wave Analysis**
The chart depicts a contracting triangle formation, possibly wave 4, as part of the broader impulsive wave sequence. Key invalidation levels are marked at **1.08372** and **1.04690**. A breakout above or below these levels will confirm the next move. If the pattern holds, wave 5 could target the lower support zone around **1.00169**. Watch for price action near the boundaries!"
!
AUDJPY Is Recovering After The Wedge PatternAUDJPY pair is sharply and impulsively recovering after we spotted the wedge pattern, so it’s now rising in minimum three waves A/1-B/2-C/3 that can retrace the price back to the starting point of the wedge pattern and back to 99-100 area, especially if we consider an unfilled GAP at 98.35 level. Currently we can see it making a five-wave impulse into wave A/1, so after corrective pullback in wave B/2, be aware of a bigger rally within wave C or maybe even wave 3 if goes decisively above 100 area.
The ending diagonal (wedge) pattern is a special type of wave that occurs in wave 5 of an impulse or wave C of a correction. An ending diagonal pattern is a type of pattern that can occur at the completion of a strong move. It reflects a “calming” of the market sentiment such that price still moves generally in the direction of the larger move, but not strongly enough to produce an impulsive wave. Ending diagonals consist of five waves, labeled 1-2-3-4-5, where each wave subdivides into three legs. Waves 1 and 4 overlap in price, while wave 3 can not be the shortest amongst waves 1, 3 and 5.
The reason why they are so interesting is because they are indicating a reversal, usually a strong one, which can retrace the price back to the starting point of the pattern.