Elliott Wave
Hang Seng Index Short: Potential ReversalIf you have seen my previous posts on Hang Seng or the China/HK market, you will know that I am a long-term bull and sometimes short-term bear on the Chinese markets.
So, this post is really against my personal bias that the China/HK markets are long-term bull because if the wave counts are correct, the recent move up are but triple combinations corrective up moves.
Here, I present a short-term target for short with stop-loss above the recent high.
Good luck!
GBPAUD → Correction to strong support before continuing growthFX:GBPAUD is forming a range with a consolidation target after breaking the base of the ascending triangle. The pound is correcting due to the dollar
Technically, on the daily timeframe we have a strong bullish structure, the price is trying to accelerate after breaking the trend resistance, but against the background of the dollar correction the pound sterling is also making a small pullback. There are no strong fundamental changes and the general direction may continue.
At the moment the focus is on ob, located in the zone of 2.0285, as well as the liquidity zone, which is located below 2.0285 + weekly low - 2.015, which also hides a huge pool of liquidity that can be tested.
Resistance levels: 2.05088
Support levels: 2.0285, 2.0151
On the background of the uptrend and the correction to the support after the update of the maximum, we can consider the strategy - false breakdown of the support with the purpose of continuation of the growth. Emphasis on 2.0285 - 2.015
Regards R. Linda!
BITCOIN → The fall continues... 82K → 76K → 73KBINANCE:BTCUSD is in a sell zone. Trump's comments on the federal reserve, crypto summit failed to impact the crypto market other than a global shakeup and liquidation...
The market has failed to see a proper bullish driver, so far. Trump's comments on the Fed ended in a global shakeup (liquidation). Yesterday's summit went so far as to prevent the cryptovalt market from turning green.
Technically. Global growth is temporarily halted, the flagship is moving into a deep correction phase, with 73K still the primary target. The market needs liquidity, as it will not be possible to grow at the expense of buyers and only bullish leverage all the time.
Price is forming a 90K - 82K range in the short zone after exiting the global consolidation. False break of 91K resistance ( global consolidation support ) ended with a fall, which may continue to both 82K and 73.5K.
Resistance levels: 89400, 91K, 93K
Support levels: 82K, 78K, 73K
The key zone of interest and liquidity is 73-66K. The price is working on a false break of resistance, the imbalance of forces in favor of bears, thus the first stop may happen in the zone of 82K ( lower boundary of the range ). Further it is necessary to observe the reaction to the support. Consolidation, breakdown and consolidation below 82K will provoke a fall to lower targets.
Regards R. Linda!
PalantirNo change to my analysis. I am expecting price to move higher towards the 0.382 @96.47 for sub-minuette a of minor B. We don't yet have confirmation though so could technically still be the minor A wave of (4). Don't forget my turquoise count suggests that wave (4) is already over, and we're heading higher in (5). I still find this count not very likely due to the structure of how we moved off the recent bottom on 28 Feb.
In short, my primary is that we're currently in wave B with a final target of $107-$118 or even slightly higher to form a flat abc. Secondary is we need a slight low to complete minor A. Third possible outcome is that wave (4) is already over, and we've begun (5) already. Notice that every pattern I am tracking has either bottomed or is extremely close. We should be headed to the upside in very short order, if not tomorrow. MACD and RSI both support this. Let me know if my expectations are unclear.
Tesla UpdateWe have officially hit the 1.618 @ $252.91 and saw a reaction. Price slightly breached the fib, but did not stop me out. I still own a total of 20 shares as of now. RSI is still reading over sold, we have a bottom on pos div, and hit a very common place for price to move in the opposite direction. I still don't find the LD very likely, but it hasn't been ruled out. If we have in fact bottomed, we should expect price to move higher slightly past the 0.382 @ $348.42 to complete minor A. That is, if it is to be a standard move. I expect the A wave to take 2-4 weeks to complete. Let me know if you have any questions.
Bitcoin - Historical trap (122k then 60k in 2026)Bitcoin is in the final stage of the bullish cycle, and we want to look for the best price to sell and prepare for the 2025/2026 bear market! The best price to sell Bitcoin is at the 1.618 FIB extension or at the main long-term 2017-2021-2025 trendline. This is exactly at 122,069, as we can see on the chart.
Many people are saying that it's over for Bitcoin and that Trump's post was a giant trap. I think we will see a final 2 waves on Bitcoin to form an ending diagonal wedge pattern (1-2-3-4-5). Bitcoin is in wave 3.
I am also bullish because of the 50-week moving average. Historically, Bitcoin reacted to this MA very precisely. I always recommend using simple moving averages with 20, 50, 100, and 200 periods because this is what the big players are using as well. These MAs are very popular among giant institutions, banks, and investors.
I think a huge altseason should kick in anytime soon now because Ethereum is very undervalued, and BTC.D needs a break as well. ETH could be a much better choice for the final 2025 pump.
Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
DUOL: mid-term trend structure Until price is holding above 13th Jan lows, my operative scenario is continuation of the upside momentum towards 420-450 resistance zone.
Moving and holding above 450 level increases the probability of a continuation move towards higher resistance levels at 590+.
Otherwise, until price holds bellow 450, there are significant odds of deeper correction in the mid-term before continuing macro uptrend
My previous idea on NASDAQ:DUOL from Dec'23 topping actions:
and update on break-out potential from Sep'24:
Thank you for your attention!
SPY/S&P500: in the mid-term resistance zonePrice has approached the upper border of the mid-term resistance zone: 598-612.
Until price closes bellow 612, I am preparing for the start of a correction to mid-term support: 564-540.
If price moves confidently above 612, than next resistance target is at 635 level.
The macro-structure of the uptrend from 2022 lows is well intact until price holds above 540 level and assumes higher targets for 2025 at 635-640-670 levels.
I wish everyone Merry Christmas and successful and profitable 2025!
Thank you for your attention.
Trend analysis for NIFTY:1. Elliott Wave Structure
The chart appears to follow an Elliott Wave structure, where the market is in a corrective wave (4).
The labeling suggests that the current upward move is wave 4, which is expected to face resistance and reverse into wave (5) downward.
2. Resistance & Support Zones -
Resistance Zone: Around 22,700 levels.
This level is marked as a potential reversal zone for the next bearish wave (5).
If NIFTY crosses above this resistance, the bearish outlook would weaken.
Expected Support: 21,450 levels.
The chart projects that NIFTY could fall to this level after rejection from resistance.
This level would act as a key support in the next wave down.
3. Volume Analysis-
The volume bars show a mix of increasing and decreasing interest, but no major volume spikes at the resistance zone yet.
If selling volume increases near resistance, it would confirm a reversal.
4. Histogram / Momentum Indicator-
The momentum indicator (histogram at the bottom) is rising, suggesting a short-term bullish push.
However, in a downtrend correction phase (wave 4), such momentum may be temporary before the next drop.
5. Trend Conclusion-
Short-term: Bullish (Wave 4 uptrend towards resistance)
Medium-term: Bearish (Wave 5 expected downward move if resistance holds)
Key Levels to Watch:
22,700: Resistance to confirm reversal.
21,450: Expected target if the downtrend resumes.
Trading Outlook:
If NIFTY breaks 22,700 with strong volume, expect further upside.
If rejection happens at resistance, a sell-off towards 21,450 is expected.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Elliott Waves in NZD/USD – A Bullish Outlook 📊 NZD/USD Technical Analysis Based on Elliott Waves
The NZD/USD market is in a short- and mid-term uptrend and is currently completing its fifth Elliott wave.
📍 Key Support Level: 0.56880
✅ As long as this level holds, the price can continue its bullish movement toward 0.58000.
🔹 If this support level is broken, the Elliott wave structure may change. So, always consider risk management!
📊 What’s your view on this analysis? Do you agree with this outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments! 👇
Philip Morris Hit The Ceiling. PMOur last game take on PM centering on a bullish butterfly gave us profits on that very healthy looking impulse up. Now, it is time to come back to reality for this stock. RSX wise - out of OBOS territory, while crossing the MIDAS line. vWAP/US show gradient of trend and are resistant and in alignment. The technicals below have been divergent for a very long time, an indication that a correction has been long overdue.
Mastercard Doing a 180. MAI called tops too early last time I looked at Mastercard. That's why you have stop losses.
It is a common feature I found when using Elliott, that there is frequently one subwave that is left unaccounted for, causing one to call pivot prematurily.
But calling pivot is never easy no matter, which tactic you use. Similarly, vWAP derived reversal to mean strategies often fail, as well as many of Jurik (and others -not singling anyone out) indicators that can be used for this purpose.
In my experience, it almost does not matter what you use, as long as you are the master of your system. Reading an indicator is easy, but reading what is between the lines is what creates real profit. Mechanical interpretation of squiggly lines does not lead to profits in the long run.
$SPY March 10, 2025AMEX:SPY March 10, 2025
60 Minutes
Last week we managed to hit 565 as projected.
Now we are having LL with oscillator divergence.
Also, we can see in the channel LL 566.63 is a green bar with close near top of bar.
Now from Marcg 4 to 7 AMEX:SPY struggling to cross the mid channel line.
Foe the fall 597.43 to 565.63 a retracement up to 585 is possible.
583 is 50 averages.
On Monday holding 573-573.5 I expect a move towards577 - 581 range.
Due to oscillator divergence, I will not short.
No trade day for me on Monday as long is also above 598 for the moment.
On the other side if 564 is broken my target is 560 which will end the extension move as drawn.
Some consolidation is coming this week which will give us a better picture hopefully by Wednesday.
End of the Ride for Take Two Interactive. TTWOLooks like an end to an Elliott impulse, with the standard 2-4 line and momentum divergence intact. Posing an entry as MIDAS line along with BB%PCT were crossed and crossed the zero line respectively. VZO and Stoch RSI are unreliable because they do not reflect price action here, probably due to all that recent barbwire trading.
ENS Nearing Completion of 1-5 or ABC Wave?ENS is likely approaching the end of either an ABC correction or a 1-5 wave structure. A minimum 3% retracement can be expected as a reaction. If the wave count is accurate, this could present a relatively straightforward trade opportunity. Watching price action for confirmation will be key! 📉📈
However, do not enter a trade without a confirmed trend breakout! Those who trade without stop-losses are the ones who lose. Risk management is key! ⚠️📉📈
SPX/DJT technical analysisChart comparing SPX and DJT.
SPX drawn with expanded flat, (b) is 200% of (a) and completes with ending diagonal wedge.
DJT drawn with regular flat, (b) ~90% of (a), wave (c) began in November of 2024 and currently in wave iii of (c).
Bears looking for SPX pitchfork support to break and become resistance, both SPX and DJT looking to eventually break October 2022 low and approach March 2020 lows to complete their corrective structures.
Triangle for BitcoinHi traders,
Last week Bitcoin made an impulsive move up through the Daily FVGbut rejected from a higher Daily FVG and dropped again. After that it consolidated the whole week.
This could be a Triangle. So after it's finished we could see another move down (blue c-wave) to finish the bigger (grey) WXY correction.
Or the (purple) Triangle is the last Y-wave and it goes up from here.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up and a change in orderflow to bearish on a lower time frame to trade shorts.
Or wait for an impulse wave up and a small correction down to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading ICT concepts with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost or respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
Down for goldHi traders,
Last week XAUUSD started up and consolidated. The corrective pattern is not finished yet so I wait for more development.
Next week we could see one more move down to finish a crrection down.
But let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for more development.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it.
I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
Up for SPX500USD again?Hi traders,
At the start of last week the price action of SPX500USD went up as predicted in my outlook but it could not reach the higher 4H FVG and dropped to the target. The bigger (red) WXY correction could be finished.
So next week we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher 4H FVG.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish and after that a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
Correction down for EUHi traders,
Last week EU went up just as I've said in my outlook. But I did not expect such an impulsive (almost vertical) move up (wave 3) so I've updated the wave count.
Price smashed through the bearish Daily and Weekly FVG (making it a BPR) and now rejected from the bearish Daily FVG higher.
So next week we could see a pullback into the Weekly/ Daily BPR and after that more upside.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction down to finish. You don't want to intratrade a wave 4.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost or respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave