Decade long structure emerging on the Silver chartIt is interesting to study the Production/Accumulation/Distribution/Industrial Demand as well. Silver seems to hit a breaching point where physical prices have a premium about +45% for buying it and +20% for selling pure silver bullion coins. Troy oz./oz. is about 1.10, which should reflect a recomended trading price of 25.4$ per troy oune. Anybody able to buy at these prices?
Another interesting peak that was reached lately is the Gold/Silver Ratio reaching +104 lvl's, an increadable bias for gold if you look at the ratio that existed about 100 years ago, which is 10. . In less then 6 months time this ratio is today +70. This is a technical indicator for a strong bear legg starting a decade long correction for the multi decade long bull market in favour of Gold. This is the first leg down, and there is a lot of space for continued correction, bringing the price to a 'recommended equilibrium'.
Platinum as wel is comming back from an all time low Platinum to gold ratio 0.39 to the 0.6. Interestingly the platinum price is not having a ticker as far as I now that goes back for 100 years, which is the scale that the trend is carrying apparently for multiple precious metals. Chemistry table books presenting value of the pure element refer to a rule of tumb for pricing, that refered to the relative abundance of those elements before the 80's, here the Platinum over Gold ratio is documented to be 2x over multiple years, presumingly a good rule of tumb ratio of price to handle as historical mean.
It's becoming clear that there is some mechanism (or a superposition of multiple mechanisms) enables the overrepresentation of 'exchangeble silver tickets'. And it is difficult to find trustworthy data on the abundance of each element to date. Especially yearly mining reports giving estimeates that are discripant over 10 years, look at a mining report in 1992,2002;2012,2022 and the quality of these estimates seem to be worthless for what the physical reality could represent. Still in search for a good dataset, one could do a basic maximum physical element estimate by taking the continental crust elementary abundance calculation on the earth being a perfect sphere, having about 40% continental crust on it's surface, the maximal depth of a mine is one in south-africa, reaching 4km deep, however the mean depth of a mine will like be less than a km deep. you could go further and eliminate regions that are definetly not minable or mined (sahara, himalaya mountains, ..) but this is in my opinion the best approach to find the global maxima for the elements that are available on our beatiful planet.
Elliott Wave
Dow Jones Transportation Average Index morning technical analysiTechnical analysis of DJT (Dow Jones Transportation Average Index).
Watching this ticker as a leading indicator of a market downturn.
As SPX and NDX have made new ATHs this week, DJT is down 3.65%.
Blow-off top happened in November 2021.
It is hard to see price action since September 2022 as impulsive. Perhaps it will turn out impulsive after everything is all said and done; this count assumes it will not.
Bears looking for this to play out as a regular flat, with the C wave as a violent sell-off below 10k. Implies some black swan event, but such an event is not necessary.
Bitcoin Roadmap==>>Short term!!!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started to pump up late yesterday with the following three News and the important resistance of $100,000 seems to be broken:
1- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: Bitcoin is like gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ), not dollars.
2- President Putin says, “Bitcoin, Digital Assets will continue to develop".
3- 'Who's Laughing Now?' NYC Mayor Eric Adams Boasts About Bitcoin Paychecks
⚠️Note: As I said in previous posts, the crypto market has become more dependent on the news and reacts to any development or news in the world, so capital management should be observed more than before.⚠️
Let's now look at the analysis of Bitcoin after yesterday's pump .
Bitcoin is currently moving in the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and near the Support zone($99,600-$98,620) .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to be completing wave 4 , and we should wait for the start of wave 5 . The wave 4 structure is a Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5) .
I expect Bitcoin to start increasing again after the end of wave 4 and attack the Resistance line . If the resistance line breaks, it can at least go up to the previous top($104,088) .
⚠️Note: We should wait for Bitcoin to fall further if Bitcoin goes below the Support line and the Support zone($99,600-$98,620).⚠️
⚠️Note: Due to the Sharpie movement of wave 3, BTC may not even create a new All-Time High(ATH) (wave 5 will be Truncated). ⚠️
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Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
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Alikze »» POWR | Bullish Wave 3 or C Scenario - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Bullish Wave 3 or C Scenario
📣 BINANCE:POWRUSDT is moving in an ascending channel on the weekly time frame, currently in the upper area of the ascending channel.
🟢 It is currently testing the current supply area, which can continue to grow up to the specified range of 88 cents with the support of the middle of the channel and the green box.
🟢 Considering that it is in the third ascending step or C, it can break the current supply area and continue to grow as wide as the first channel to the second channel.
💎In addition, if the green box area is broken, the blue bar can act as the next support to cause demand.
⚠️If a correction occurs and the green box area is broken, the price should not enter the Invalidation LVL area, in which case the bullish scenario will be invalidated⚠️
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GOLD → NFP may release price from consolidationFX:XAUUSD declines to 2615 and forms a false breakdown. Traders are confused as they wait for NFP and are not preparing for premature action yet, waiting for economic data...
The dollar is having some trouble indicating it is ready to enter a deeper correction phase, but now it all depends on NFP and the Fed. Metal is still squeezed inside the 2660 - 2615 flat. A false break of the support forms a pullback to the liquidity sides
If the NFP is below the expected 200K, the gold may go up, as it will indicate the continued cooling of the US labor market and encourage the Fed to cut rates further. But, strong NFP data could put pressure on the decision to pause the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, which could put negative pressure on the metal....
Resistance levels: 2655, 2660
Support levels: 2636, 2605
Technically, the NFP may influence the price to leave the channel, which may be accompanied by a strong impulse. The price direction depends on the immediate actual employment data....
A break of resistance will trigger a rise to 2690
A break of support will trigger a fall to 2580
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GBPUSD → Channel breakout. Attempt to change the trendFX:GBPUSD finds an opportunity to grow. A breakout of the local trend resistance is forming amid the dollar correction. Zones of interest: 1.300
The retest of the intermediate bottom ends with reversal candlestick patterns and market reversal structure. The big question is: How long will it last? It all depends on the dollar. The US market received negative jobless claims data yesterday, which may also affect the NFP, which will be released later today. A worse-than-expected data will intensify the dollar correction, pointing to the problems in the economy (against what Powell said recently). In such a scenario, forex currencies may get a chance for a small rally.
Technically, a channel breakout is a good signal that could turn into a strong momentum, but apparently traders are not in a hurry yet....
Resistance levels: 1.284, 1.300
Support levels: 1.272, 1.261, 1.2488
Accordingly, if a false breakout of resistance is formed and the price falls beyond 1.272, then we should expect a decline to 1.24. But at the moment there are positive signs to gain from 1.275 to 1.300 in the medium term.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:GBPUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
XEM Possible Comeback & Takeover!#NEM is one of the classic "dinosaur" cryptocurrencies. I previously analyzed it and expected further decline, but my analysis was incorrect.
As long as it stays above $0.0147, I believe it has the potential to keep rising. Passing $0.0625 would possibly target a new ATH.
#XEM
ICP Breakout Signals a 40% Surge as Bitcoin Hits $100kCRYPTOCAP:ICP , a popular altcoin, is gaining momentum as it approaches a breakout from its 5-month consolidation channel. If the breakout sustains, it could pave the way for a substantial move of up to 40% 🚀. Expect FOMO into large-cap altcoins as traders realize they've missed the bitcoin rally to $100k.
Hang Seng Index Primed for a 20% RallyThe Hang Seng Index is rebounding off its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level following an ABC correction, a classic technical setup indicating a potential trend reversal. This bounce suggests the beginning of the next bullish wave, with the potential to climb by up to 20%.
in case that breaking down was due to fear.. we can go up likein case it was triggering sl orders to reach 90000 level. and
if we assume it was wave C from expanding consolidation pattern..
and upward wave 2 is strong consolidation.. then this can happen..
but its hard to long tbh.. i would be just long with low leverage in case it goes down more then i will add more position.
this is not so good for us in general.so after breaking psychological level like 100k this always happens..
now what we can guess is that since it dropped real hard. this can be wave C but with
longer 3 and short of 5.
thats why i put c above the low level.
if we can support around 92000 is good but if we cant support well..
this way we may see going down around 85000.
or if we count this as starting of consolidation from 102000 then we have to draw
triangular pattern.. so lets see how it plays.. if we can just go up straightly then its pretty good and strong for the market....
i will update with real time analysis.
GOLD → Consolidation before a strong movement. But where to?FX:XAUUSD continues to consolidate and we have questionable preconditions that indicate both a possible fall (fundamental background) and growth (technical background).
Gold is holding back after Fed Chairman Powell's speech:
The US economy is in remarkably good shape.We are moving very quickly with rates.
"I am very pleased with where monetary policy is right now"
Unemployment is still very low and progress is being made in fighting inflation
The focus remains on the jobless claims data and NFP at this time
Technically, the focus is on consolidation in a locally rising channel format. A price exit from the channel in either direction may be accompanied by a strong impulse.
Resistance levels: 2655, 2660, 2688
Support levels: 2636, 2620, 2605
Two scenarios due to mixed and stalemate situation:
black: Powell commented on the situation as strong enough for the US market, accordingly, gold is forming a consolidation in a flag format, which is technically a pattern for a continuation of the fall.
blue: On D1 there are prerequisites for local growth. If the price breaks 2655, then 2660, the growth may continue to the zone of interest 2688.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
HBAR complex correction?
After a historic rise of over 700% from the recent bottom, HBAR has retraced from around 40 cents, corresponding to the 0.618 fib extension level to its all-time high.
Whether this constitutes an Elliott Wave 4 or not, it forms a parallel channel. Parallel channels often suggest complex corrections, so this could be labeled as WXY or WXYXZ unless it clearly exhibits the characteristics of a diagonal triangle (with an extended wave 5).
If the channel's lower edge holds, HBAR might find support at the 0.382 fib extension level, around 25 cents. Otherwise, 21 cents would be another key support level to watch (an upper timeframe image will be attached below).
Considering the current market conditions, a bullish continuation is likely. Therefore, passionate HBARians, including myself, may still have a chance to buy the dip.
A case for long term investment and DCANYSE:VALE Is at an inflection point. It is a stock I have been watching for a long time as it has a nice Elliott wave pattern (If correct)
Here I present the Weekly chart as I consider it for my long term portfolio (3+ years BUY and Hold)
Although the chart presented here looks great (Read: Phenomenal), as an analyst utilising multiple methods, the story does not unfold as easily as I'd like.
As can be seen in the snapshot below there are multiple 'anomalies' still outstanding at those green zones on the magnified weekly chart. They may or may not be filled, but our awareness of them should cause us to move forward with caution.
On the Elliottwave side of things, there are two ways of looking at this. Either the recent top at ~$23 was wave i of 3 of (3) or the top of Primary w(1). If the latter is true then we will likely drop lower in to one of the green bands.
So the question remains - how do we take advantage of this given a drop to just above $3?
1) You can Dollar Cost Average in at each stage distributing your allocated capital
2) Wait for a bounce in a five wave move and enter at the correction for w2 of that bounce. Use the low for a stop loss.
There is no perfect way to manage the unknowns, you can only manage your primary objective, which should be to safeguard your capital -
If you want to know my thoughts on NYSE:VALE and other names give this a boost and follow.
best of luck!